제니아 호텔스 앤 리조츠(XHR) 2026년 3분기 실적발표 컨퍼런스 콜: RevPAR 12.5% 상승, 가이던스 상향

핵심 요약

• 제니아 호텔 앤 리조트(Xenia Hotels & Resorts)는 2026년 3분기 GAAP 순손실 270만 달러, 조정 EBITDAre 5,320만 달러(전년 동기 대비 26% 증가), 주당 조정 FFO 0.36달러(전년 동기 대비 약 57% 증가)를 기록했다고 발표했습니다.
• 동일 자산 RevPAR(객실당 매출)은 184.75달러로 12.5% 증가했습니다. 투숙률은 70%로 380베이시스포인트(bp) 상승했으며, ADR(평균 객실 단가)은 6.4% 증가한 264달러를 기록했습니다.
• 동일 자산 호텔 EBITDA는 6,020만 달러로 29.3% 증가했습니다. 매출 증가율이 영업비용 증가율을 상회함에 따라 호텔 EBITDA 마진은 22.9%로 295베이시스포인트 확대되었습니다.
• 단체 객실 박수가 약 11% 증가함에 힘입어 단체 객실 매출은 16.2% 늘었습니다. 견조한 연회 및 케이터링 수요는 식음료(F&B) 매출을 15% 끌어올리는 데 기여했습니다.
• 경영진은 2026년 연간 동일 자산 RevPAR 성장률 가이던스를 7.75%~8.25%로, 희석 주당 조정 FFO 가이던스를 2.08달러~2.14달러로 상향 조정했습니다.
• 10월 추정 동일 자산 RevPAR은 약 8% 증가했습니다. 경영진은 강화된 기업 개별 고객 및 단체 수요가 4분기 전망을 뒷받침했다고 밝혔습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

제니아의 29개 호텔 중 26개 호텔에서 RevPAR이 증가했으며, 14개 자산이 두 자릿수 성장률을 기록했습니다. 시장별로는 22개 시장 중 21개 시장이 상승세를 나타냈습니다.

필라델피아는 34.5%의 RevPAR 성장률로 포트폴리오를 견인했으며, 뉴올리언스가 29%로 뒤를 이었습니다. 샌디에이고와 솔트레이크시티는 각각 20% 이상 증가한 반면, 피츠버그, 산타클라라, 댈러스, 올랜도는 16%~18%의 성장을 기록했습니다.

9월은 이번 분기 중 가장 실적이 좋은 달이었습니다. 동일 자산 RevPAR은 투숙률이 73.5%로 641베이시스포인트 상승하고 ADR이 282.26달러로 6.6% 증가함에 힘입어 16.8% 상승한 207.33달러를 기록했습니다.

단체 영업이 주요 동력이었습니다. 단체 객실 매출은 16.2% 증가했으며, 단체 객실 박수는 약 11% 늘어났습니다. 연회 및 케이터링 매출 증가가 식음료 매출의 15% 성장에 기여했습니다.

주중 수요도 강화되었습니다. 화요일과 수요일의 평균 투숙률은 76.3%로 470베이시스포인트 상승했습니다. 해당 요일의 ADR은 7.9% 증가하여 14.9%의 RevPAR 성장을 이끌어냈습니다. 경영진은 이러한 개선의 일부를 기업 개별 수요 강화 및 만실 임계일(compression nights) 증가 덕분으로 돌렸습니다.

총 영업비용은 8.5% 증가하여 동일 자산 총매출 증가율인 12.7%를 밑돌았습니다. 객실 비용은 6.6% 증가했고, 식음료 비용은 10.3% 증가했습니다. 유틸리티 비용은 투숙률 상승, 일부 지역의 이상 기후, 비용 재분류 등의 원인으로 14% 가까이 증가하며 눈에 띄는 부담 요인으로 작용했습니다.

제니아는 이번 분기에 포트폴리오 개선을 위해 1,640만 달러를 투자하여 올해 누적 자본 지출을 4,700만 달러로 늘렸습니다. 안다즈 나파(Andaz Napa)와 더 리츠칼튼 덴버(The Ritz-Carlton, Denver)의 리노베이션은 수요가 적은 시기에 맞춰 2026년 11월 시작될 예정이었습니다.

경영진 가이던스

상향 조정된 연간 RevPAR 중간값은 4분기에 약 7%의 성장을 의미합니다. 경영진은 약 8%로 추정되는 10월 성장률이 이러한 전망을 뒷받침한다고 밝혔습니다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 기업 개별 고객 모멘텀이 이어질 것으로 예상하지만, 관련 설명은 예비적인 수준이라고 덧붙였습니다. 2026년 3분기 말 기준 단체 객실 매출 페이스는 전적으로 하반기 감소 영향으로 약 4% 줄었습니다. 상반기 페이스는 보합세였습니다. 2027년 예상 단체 객실 매출의 약 절반은 확정된 상태로, 회사의 과거 예약 패턴과 일치합니다.

경영진은 그랜드 하얏트 스코츠데일(Grand Hyatt Scottsdale)의 호텔 EBITDA가 2026년 3,000만 달러대 초반에서 2027년 3,000만 달러대 후반으로 증가할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 회사는 4,000만 달러대 초반의 안정화된 수준을 지속적으로 목표로 하고 있습니다.

리스크 및 관찰 항목

• 제니아는 2026년 특별 이벤트와의 비교 기저효과가 2027년 첫 3개 분기에 걸쳐 RevPAR에 50베이시스포인트, EBITDA에 300만 달러의 역풍으로 작용할 것으로 추정합니다.
• 2027년 하반기 단체 예약 페이스는 전년 동기 대비 낮았으나, 경영진은 해당 기간 단체 영업의 약 3분의 2가 여전히 예약 가능한 상태로 남아있다고 말했습니다.
• 뉴올리언스는 전년도의 저조한 실적 비교(기저효과) 수혜를 입었으나 여전히 포트폴리오 전체 평균보다 실질적으로 낮은 RevPAR 수준에 머물러 있습니다.
• 3개 호텔은 RevPAR이 성장하지 못했습니다. 안다즈 서배너(Andaz Savannah)는 4.5% 감소했고, 서배너의 호텔 오르(Hotel ORE)는 1.3% 하락했으며, 안다즈 샌디에이고(Andaz San Diego)는 보합을 기록했습니다.
• 경영진은 2027년에 주로 1분기에 집중되는 리노베이션 관련 EBITDA 영업 손실(displacement)이 약 100만 달러 발생할 것으로 예상합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 인수 기회가 최근 몇 년에 비해 더 우호적인 것으로 보이지만 임박한 거래는 없다고 말했습니다. 제니아는 인수합병, 부채 상환, 기존 자산 투자 사이에서 지속적으로 우선순위를 저울질할 것입니다.

기업 개별 수요와 관련하여 경영진은 가장 큰 긍정적 서프라이즈로 사전에 미리 예측하기 어려웠던 수요(특히 9월과 10월)를 꼽았습니다. 경영진에 따르면 화요일과 수요일의 투숙률은 2019년 수준보다 약 7%포인트 낮게 유지되고 있어 추가 회복의 여지가 있습니다.

그랜드 하얏트 스코츠데일은 2026년 3,000만 달러대 초반의 호텔 EBITDA 범위를 달성할 궤도를 유지하고 있습니다. 경영진은 견조한 단체 수요가 둔화된 레저 환경을 상쇄하며 2027년 지속적인 실적 성장을 뒷받침하고 있다고 설명했습니다.

W 내슈빌(W Nashville)에서 경영진은 호세 안드레스(Jose Andres) 제휴 식음료 매장 4곳의 재단장 이후 전 분기 대비 지속적인 진전을 이뤘다고 보고했습니다. 회사는 단체 식사 및 매장 대관(venue buyout)을 추가 성장의 잠재적 동력으로 보고 있으나, 현금 흐름상의 이점은 2026년에 실질적인 영향을 미치기보다는 수년에 걸쳐 누적될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전체 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Xenia Hotels & Resorts Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Aldo Martinez, Director of Finance. Aldo, please go ahead.

Aldo Martinez

Thank you, Marina, and welcome to Xenia Hotels & Resorts Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. Marcel Verbaas, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Barry Bloom, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Atish Shah, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Marcel will begin with a discussion on our performance. Barry will follow with more details on operating trends and capital expenditure projects. And Atish will conclude today's remarks on our balance sheet and outlook. We will then open up the call for Q&A.

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that certain statements made on this call are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued this morning, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today, November 3, 2026, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update any of these forward-looking statements as actual events unfold.

You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to net income as well as definitions of certain items referred to in our remarks in our third quarter earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. The property level information we'll be speaking about today is on a same property basis for all 29 hotels unless specified otherwise. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days.

I will now turn it over to Marcel to get started.

Marcel Verbaas

Thanks, Aldo, and good afternoon, everyone. Our portfolio delivered an outstanding third quarter with results that substantially exceeded the expectations we outlined on our second quarter earnings call at the end of July. Group demand was very strong as anticipated and grew significantly compared to the softer demand we experienced in the third quarter of last year. Additionally, corporate transient demand continued to strengthen and demand from the higher-end leisure customer remained resilient. Importantly, the strong top line performance carried through to the bottom line with nearly 300 basis points of hotel EBITDA margin expansion compared to the same period last year.

On a GAAP basis, this morning, we reported a net loss of $2.7 million for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDAre was $53.2 million, an increase of 26%, and adjusted FFO per share was $0.36, up almost 57% from the same quarter last year. This significant growth reflects both the strength of our operating results and the benefit of a lower share count following the significant CR repurchases we completed last year.

Same-property RevPAR for our 29-hotel portfolio was $184.75, an increase of 12.5% compared to the third quarter of 2025. After a second quarter in which our RevPAR growth came entirely from rate, this quarter's gains were well balanced between occupancy and average daily rate, which we feel is a healthy sign of demand across the portfolio.

While certain markets in our portfolio benefited from event-driven demand in July, including the FIFA World Cup at America 250, it is noteworthy that August and September delivered strong RevPAR gains as well with September 16.8% RevPAR increase leading the quarter.

Diving into our markets. In the third quarter, 21 of our 22 markets experienced RevPAR increases with 13 of those achieving double-digit growth versus the third quarter of 2025. Philadelphia, which benefited from several large events, led the portfolio with RevPAR up 34.5%, followed by New Orleans at 29%; and San Diego and Salt Lake City, each also up in excess of 20%. Pittsburgh, Santa Clara, Dallas and Orlando also had very strong results during the quarter with each of those markets up between 16% and 18%.

As we anticipated when we last reported, the second quarter's gap between same-property RevPAR and total RevPAR growth which was driven by lower contributions from group demand did not continue into the third quarter. Same-property total RevPAR growth of 12.7% for the third quarter exceeded our 12.5% RevPAR growth as group demand and banquet and catering revenue increased meaningfully compared to last year. In a number of markets, healthy group business drove even greater growth in total RevPAR, most notably in San Diego, up more than 26% and in Houston of nearly 17% as our Houston hotels lapped a softer period last year.

Looking ahead, we do expect that RevPAR growth for the portfolio will now exceed total RevPAR growth for full year 2026 as reflected by our updated guidance for both metrics. This is a result of much stronger RevPAR growth than we previously projected as well as the mix of our RevPAR growth rather than any softening in out-of-room spend.

Transient demand, which carries less ancillary revenues than group business has been much stronger than we previously anticipated. And a significant portion of our RevPAR growth has been fueled by increases in ADR. Third quarter same-property hotel EBITDA of $60.2 million was 29.3% above the same period in 2025 and same-property hotel EBITDA margin was 22.9% and an increase of nearly 300 basis points. The balance growth in occupancy and rate during the quarter allowed our hotels to leverage their fixed cost, while the rebound in group business drove a significant improvement in out-of-room profitability.

Our operators continue to do an excellent job managing costs, and we continue to work closely with them to manage expenses where possible. Barry will provide additional detail on our property level results during his remarks.

Turning to our capital expenditure projects. We now expect that we will spend $70 million to $75 million in property improvements during the year with 2 significant renovations scheduled to begin next month. At Andaz Napa, the first phase of a comprehensive renovation of guestrooms and corridors will commence. And at [indiscernible] in Denver, we will be upgrading the guest rooms, corridors and meeting space. Barry will also provide more color on all of our completed and ongoing capital projects.

As we have done throughout the history of the company, we will continue to evaluate additional opportunities to enhance the quality of our portfolio and drive adjusted FFO growth, whether through reinvestment in our existing motels, acquisitions or dispositions. The sale of the 85-room Kimpton RiverPlace Hotel in Portland that we discussed on our second quarter earnings call is an example of these disciplined capital allocation decisions. As a reminder, we sold a hotel in July for $11 million, which represented a 19.4x multiple on trailing 12-month hotel EBITDA and allowed us to excellent assets that face substantial near-term capital needs, amid an uncertain outlook for earnings growth.

Given our strong third quarter and our expectations for the remainder of the year, we are meaningfully raising our full year 2026 outlook. We now expect same-property RevPAR growth of 7.75% to 8.25%, an increase of 250 basis points at the midpoint compared to the guidance we provided after the second quarter. And we expect full year same-property total RevPAR growth of 7% to 7.5%, an increase of 150 basis points at the midpoint compared to prior guidance. These increases in expected full year revenues, coupled with improved margin performance are driving significant projected increases in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO per share as well. Atish will walk through our updated guidance in more detail.

2026 is shaping up to be an exceptional year for Xenia. Our results have exceeded our expectations throughout the year, and we have raised our earnings outlook 3 quarters in a row. The fourth quarter is off to another promising start as we estimated the same property during the month of October increased approximately 8% compared to last year. The significant RevPAR increases during the important months of September and October were driven by both group and corporate transient demand, which is encouraging as we look ahead to next year. The recent investments we have made in our portfolio continue to pay off. Highlighted by Grand Hyatt Scottsdale continuing with its successful path towards stabilization at a significantly higher hotel EBITDA level than its prior peak.

We own a high-quality portfolio of luxury and upper -- upscale hotels in markets with limited new supply. We continue to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet, and we have a proven track record of prudent capital allocation, leading to value creation for our shareholders. We are proud of what our team and our operating partners have accomplished over the past several years, and we are more confident than ever in the long-term earnings potential of our portfolio.

Barry will provide more detail on our operating results and capital projects.

Barry Bloom

Thank you, Marcel, and good afternoon, everyone. Our same property portfolio generated third quarter RevPAR of $184.75, up 12.5% from a year ago. Unlike last quarter, when growth was entirely rate driven, the third quarter gains were more balanced with occupancy rising 380 basis points to 70% and average daily rate increasing 6.4% to $264 when compared to the same period in 2025. Strong out-of-room spend lifted total RevPAR to $325.71, up 12.7% for the quarter, which, as Marcel mentioned, represents a strong rebound after a more subdued second quarter, primarily as a result of our group business mix.

We are pleased to report that for the third quarter, 26 of our 29 hotels grew RevPAR when compared to the third quarter of 2025 with 14 of those achieving double-digit percentage increases during the period. Our top performing hotels in the quarter were Kimpton Hotel Palomar Philadelphia, where RevPAR rose 34.5%, Loews New Orleans, up 29% and [indiscernible] of 28.5%, Iryo Woodlands Waterway up 23.9% and Kipton Hotel Monaco, Salt Lake City at Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress, each up nearly 21%.

RevPAR Fairmont Pittsburgh, Hyatt Regency Santa Clara, Marriott Dallas Downtown and Kimpton Canary Santa Barbara, each grew in mid- to high-teens percentages while Grand Hyatt Scottsdale continued its ramp towards stabilization with RevPAR of 12.5% at the resort. Only 3 of our hotels experienced RevPAR weakness compared to the third quarter of 2025 and including Andaz Savannah down 4.5%; Hotel ORE in Savannah, down 1.3% and Andaz SanDiego flat versus last year's third quarter.

By month for the third quarter, July same-property RevPAR was $180.40, an 11.7% increase over last year, with 367 basis points of occupancy gain and a 5.8% higher rate. August came in at $167.24, up 8.6% with rate up 6.3%. September was a standout month finishing at $207.33 of 16.8% as occupancy climbed 641 basis points to 73.5% and rate grew 6.6% to $282.26.

Group business was a clear driver of our results in the quarter. Same property group room increased 16.2% compared to the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by volume with group room nights up approximately 11%, that represents our strongest quarter of group growth this year. This is despite the relative softness in group experienced in our World Cup markets were in July are reflective of the shift of both Jewish holidays to September with both falling on weekends this year. The increase in group volume also carried through to banquet and catering revenue, which was a primary driver of our 15% growth in food and beverage revenue for the quarter. Atish will provide more color on group pace for the fourth quarter and 2027 in his remarks.

Day of weak trends were solid in the third quarter, with RevPAR growing every night of the week. Across all segments, weekday RevPAR, Sunday through Thursday grew 12.6%, while weekend RevPAR Friday and Saturday, grew nearly 12%. And midweek occupancy was particularly strong, driven by both group and transient with Tuesday and Wednesday occupancy averaging 76.3%, up 470 basis points from last year. That additional demand created opportunities for meaningful rate compression with Tuesday and Wednesday ADR up 7.9% and RevPAR up 14.9%.

Now turning to expenses and profit. Third quarter same-property total revenue grew 12.7% year-over-year, outpacing total operating expense growth of 8.5%. As a result, hotel EBITDA of $60.2 million was up [indiscernible] versus 2025. Additionally, hotel EBITDA margin saw 295 basis points of margin expansion, climbing to 22.9% versus the third quarter of 2025.

Within the operating departments, rooms revenue grew 12.5%, while rooms expense rose only 6.6% with rooms expense per occupied room up less than 1% as occupancy increased by 4 points. Food & Beverage is a standout in the quarter with F&B revenue up 15% against expense growth of 10.3%, driven by increased banquet and catering revenues and strong group demand and reflecting an uptick in growth compared to both last quarter and the third quarter of last year.

Other operating departments, including spa, parking and golf grew 15.5% in the quarter, while miscellaneous income declined 5% and primarily due to lower cancellation and attrition revenue. Undistributed departments continue to be well controlled with expenses rising 7.8% in the third quarter, well below revenue growth. On a same-property basis, A&G expenses increased 10.2%, primarily driven by revenue-related costs, including credit card commissions.

Sales and marketing and repairs and maintenance grew more modest, 3.9% and 2.1%, respectively. Utilities, however, increased nearly 14%, driven by higher occupancy, several markets with extreme weather conditions and the salary reclassification of golf water expenses to this line item in 2026.

Now turning to CapEx. During the third quarter, we invested $16.4 million of portfolio improvements, which brings our total for the year to $47 million. We now expect full year capital expenditures of between $70 million and $75 million, reduction of $5 million at the high end of our prior range.

At Royal Palms Resort & Spa, we completed the renovation of the guest rooms and corridors in the 68 room Mana Vista building and the renovation of [indiscernible] restaurant. Additionally, in the third quarter, we performed work and continued planning minor guest room upgrades at 3 hotels, which are expected to be completed in 2026 or in the first quarter of 2027 based on hotel occupancy, as well as planning and/or execution of mechanical systems and infrastructure upgrades at 9 hotels.

The 2 significant renovations this year are still on track to begin next month. At Andaz Napa, the first phase of a comprehensive renovation of guest rooms and corridors, covering about half of the hotel's 141 rooms with completion expected in the first quarter of next year. As a reminder, the second phase will begin in the fourth quarter of 2027.

At the Ritz-Carlton, Denver, next month, we will begin a renovation of guest rooms, corridors and meeting space with completion expected in early March. Both projects are timed for lower demand periods to minimize disruption.

Turning to our 4 Marriott Autograph Collection hotels. Our hotels in Orlando and Savannah transitioned to their new names on September 1, followed by our hotels in Charleston and Mountain Brook on October 1. The Orlando hotels now named Hotel Bode. The Savannah Hotel is now Hotel Orel, the Charleston Hotels now Hotel Operas and Mountain Brook is now Hotel [indiscernible]. As a reminder, the hotels remain part of Marriott's Autograph Collection and the new identities reinforced the collections emphasis on distinctive properties to capture the character of their local markets. We made minor investments in these properties as part of the renaming and have also rebranded the primary restaurants and bars in both Orlando and Charleston.

As with the management transition at Davidson earlier this year, 3 names were completed with no meaningful disruption in hotel operations, and we look forward to the benefits of these repositionings under Davidson's management. With that, I will turn the call over to Atish.

Atish Shah

Thanks, Barry. I will provide an update on our balance sheet, walk through our updated guidance and provide some early thoughts on 2027. First, our balance sheet continues to be a source of strength. At quarter end, we had approximately $1.4 billion in outstanding debt, approximately 3/4 of which was at fixed interest rates. Our weighted average interest rate at quarter end was 5.55%. Our leverage ratio, as calculated under our credit facility was approximately 4.4x trailing 12-month net debt to EBITDA, down from 5.2x at the end of 2025.

Over time, we expect our leverage ratio to achieve our long-term target of sub-4x net debt to EBITDA. As a reminder, we have no preferred equity or senior capital. Our debt maturities continue to be well laddered with a weighted average duration of 2.6 years at quarter end. The only debt maturity next year is the Marriott San Francisco Airport mortgage loan, which we intend to pay off with existing liquidity early in the second quarter. At that time, 28 of our 29 hotels will be free of property level debt.

As to liquidity, we ended the third quarter with $161 million in available cash. Excluding restricted cash, our $500 million revolving line of credit continues to be fully undrawn. Therefore, total liquidity at quarter end was $661 million. As previously reported, our Board authorized a third quarter dividend of $0.14 per share. Our dividend continues to reflect the use of NOLs, which while we prioritize the uses of capital that we believe drive the most shareholder value, including investments in our existing portfolio.

We did not repurchase or issue any shares during the quarter. We have $97.5 million remaining on our buyback authorization and $200 million of capacity under our ATM offering program.

Now turning to our updated 2026 outlook, beginning with RevPAR. Our RevPAR growth is now expected to be 8% at the midpoint. This represents a 250 basis point increase to prior guidance and 500 basis points above our initial 2026 guidance. That increase captures both the strength of the third quarter and a more favorable view of the fourth quarter. Our full year midpoint implies RevPAR growth of roughly 7% for the fourth quarter, which is supported by our estimated October RevPAR growth of approximately 8%. On total RevPAR growth, our midpoint is now 7.25%, that is 150 basis points higher than prior guidance.

As to hotel EBITDA margin, we now anticipate full year expansion of approximately 120 basis points. You'll recall that we started the year expecting margin to decline slightly. Cost per occupied room is running up about 2.5% year-to-date versus the roughly 3% we had expected when the year began.

As adjusted EBITDAre, we have both raised and tightened our range. We now expect to earn $281 million at the midpoint, an increase of $8 million from last quarter and an increase of $21 million from our initial 2026 outlook. Adjusted FFO per diluted share is expected to be between $2.08 and $2.14. Lastly, we now project $26 million of full year G&A expense, an increase of approximately $1 million due to higher incentive compensation expense. Full year income tax expense moves the opposite way and is projected to be $1 million, which is down from $2 million per prior guidance.

For the full year 2026 at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect adjusted FFO per share to grow about 20% versus last year. From a free cash flow perspective after capital expenditures and before dividend, we expect over 45% growth versus 2025. On a per share basis, we expect about $1.35 of free cash flow. This equates to a free cash flow yield of over 6% based on our current share price. And again, that is after capital expenditures and before dividends.

Looking ahead to 2027, we would like to provide some initial thoughts. While it is still early, there are a handful of points we can share. First, on business transient demand, which is the biggest slice of the pie at about 40% of our overall revenue mix. We are expecting the momentum we experienced this fall to continue into next year. We expect midweek demand to continue recovering as we are still nearly 7 points behind 2019 occupancy across Tuesday and Wednesday nights with larger gaps on Mondays and Thursdays. Our operators are conducting corporate rate negotiations now, and we are hopeful for healthy revenue increases from this segment. We expect return to office and a healthy overall labor market to continue benefiting corporate transient demand.

Second, as to group demand, which reflects about 35% of our room revenue mix. While group is an important part of our mix, we are coming off a couple of very strong years of growth. By way of reminder, in 2025, group from revenue increased about 13% and year-to-date through September of this year, increased another 9%. As we look forward, we expect more normalized growth. As of the end of the third quarter, about half of our 2027 group room revenue was definite, which is generally in line with our historical pattern. Group room revenue pace for 2027 was down approximately 4% compared to the same time last year. The decline is all second half related.

First half group pace is roughly flat, which is important given that it's a seasonally stronger half of our portfolio given our Sunbelt orientation. Our hotel operating teams are focused on filling the current gap for the second half of 2027, and based on early budget discussions, we are expecting that they will do so in the months ahead.

Another point to keep in mind is at this time last year, we had approximately $2 million of FIFA-related group business that was canceled ahead of the tournament. Adjusting for those FIFA blocks, our group pace for the first half of next year would be slightly positive versus flat.

Looking across our group markets, the largest gains in 2027 group case are at both our resorts in the Phoenix Scottsdale area, the Marriott SFO and each of our hotels in Houston and Orlando. These gains are being driven primarily by in-house group business rather than big citywide conventions. The largest declines are concentrated in a few markets that are lapping special events such as the Super Bowl, FIFA World Cup or America 250 as well as some soft citywide calendars in markets such as Portland.

Third, moving ahead to leisure demand, which drives about 25% of our overall room revenue mix. Our assets in key leisure destinations continue to be well positioned to capture the high-end leisure traveler. A few of our leisure-focused hotels have meaningful gaps to 2019 occupancy levels. We expect our drive-to leisure hotels to continue to fare well from domestic peer markets.

Fourth, new hotel supply continues to be muted. Across our markets, we expect weighted supply growth to be less than 80 basis points in 2027, following approximately 1% growth in 2026. Across our 29 hotels, almost 40% are in market tracks with no supply growth expected next year.

Fifth, we're expecting Grand Hyatt Scottsdale hotel EBITDA to continue ramping from a low $30 million EBITDA range in 2026 to the high $30 million EBITDA range in 2027. We also expect the F&B improvements at W. Nashville and the renaming and relaunching the 4 Autograph Collection hotels to provide incremental year-over-year growth.

Lastly, we want to provide some initial thoughts on the year-over-year comparison. It's due to this year's special events, we estimate that in 2027, we will have a 50 basis point RevPAR headwind and a $3 million EBITDA headwind compared to 2026. The impact will be spread across the first 3 quarters of 2027. We believe the continued recovery in transient can more than offset this tough comparison. And as we look ahead to 2027, we do not expect renovations to generate incremental disruption relative to the amount of disruption expected this year.

In closing our high-quality portfolio positions us well for meaningful earnings growth. Over the next few years, we expect demand to further improve and pricing power to increase given the low supply growth backdrop. The operating leverage of our hotels, coupled with the financial leverage of the company and are expected to drive continued growth in earnings and cash flow per share in the years ahead.

And with that, we will turn the call back over to Marina to begin our Q&A session.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

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David Katz

All seems to be, frankly, moving along quite well. I mean, with a bit of a noisy year, a bit of some noise in 2027. I just wonder like what your appetite and what the opportunity set looks like for you to maybe start playing offense and acquire your next meaningful asset?

Marcel Verbaas

David, thanks for the question. Yes. As you pointed out, I was very pleased with performance this year, and that's been somewhat reflected in the stock price kind of moving up throughout the year too, which does make acquisitions a bit more feasible as a potential capital allocation decision for us. We talked about it over the last couple of quarters that it does seem like the opportunity set is probably a little bit better than it has been over the last couple of years. So we certainly are looking at potential acquisitions and digging into some ways to potentially play offense going into 2027. But nothing imminent at this point.

We're obviously staying very disciplined in the way that we're reviewing the various opportunities, and we'll continue to look at that in line with any other capital allocation decisions we have coming up, which obviously includes some of the paying down the debt that Atish talked about, and some additional investments into our existing portfolio.

David Katz

Got it. And as my follow-up, we spend a decent amount of time talking with investors about relationships with the brands, generally speaking, not naming names. And over the years, it has seemed as though those are conversations that are always a thing, but they become a bit more of a topic among us these days. And I'd love your take on whether what we're hearing today is normal conversations that always go on? Or are they just a bit more intense with respect to things like fees structures, loyalty programs, et cetera?

Marcel Verbaas

Well, in general, I'd say that we talked about this before. I mean, we -- from our perspective, speaking just for us, it's hard to speak for everyone in the industry as well. We have very good relationships with the various brand companies. We believe strongly in the value that brands bring to a portfolio like ours, particularly with the type of assets that we own. And there are always conversations going on with stakeholders to make sure that we improve the outlook and growth for a portfolio like ours.

So we, from our side, welcome those discussions and I appreciate the fact that the brands are clearly focused on making sure that the business model works from an ownership perspective.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario with Baird.

Michael Bellisario

First question, just want to dig into the group comments, Atish that you provided. Any stats that you guys can give us on certain markets that have more normal comparisons and not being affected by special events or onetime impacts. Just trying to get a better understanding of what the underlying run rate is, ex some of these onetime items that were such a big benefit this year?

Atish Shah

Yes. Thanks for the question, Michael. So I think if you back out, FIFA as I mentioned, were down slightly for the full year. And really, it's more a story first half versus second half. The first half for us actually looks flattish, slightly positive if you can back out that FIFA box that canceled. The second half is down. And frankly, we've got some time to fill in that second half, as I mentioned, or about half booked in terms of group business for the full year next year, but the second half is about 1/3 booked with 2/3 left to book. So still plenty of time there.

Some of our bigger assets that have done so well over the last couple of years are hanging in there, particularly, again, for the first half, and we see some opportunity in some of the markets that I mentioned like Portland some of the World Cup markets, Santa Clara that had the Super Bowl last year -- or sorry, this year, Dallas [indiscernible] some opportunities there for sure, particularly in the second half.

Michael Bellisario

Got it. Understood. And then just switching gears on Scottsville, I guess, maybe also related to group too, but just any update on the performance trajectory there? I get the numbers you gave for your expectation for '27, but any incremental color or learnings from meeting planners. And I guess at this point, do you think the stabilized earnings base of the hotel is higher today than it was, say, 12 months ago given the underlying performance there?

Marcel Verbaas

Big picture, Michael, I think we're on track. We continue to be on track with where we thought we would be getting to the low 30s this year like we've talked about. So that's obviously highly encouraging. We're still seeing good growth going into next year. Booking pace is still very good there. So Atish mentioned current expectation, and this is early because we're still going through the budgeting process is getting to that high 30s next year, and we still believe we will get to the low 40s on a stabilized level, like we've talked about before.

And I think part of it is really the strength that we've seen on the group side that has been very encouraging because we've talked about this a little bit over the last couple of quarters. The backdrop on the leisure side was a little bit more subdued than probably what we would have expected 18 months ago, 24 months ago, but it really has been kind of filled in by very robust group contribution. So it's all really playing out the way we were hoping it would. So we're very pleased with how it looks like we're tracking towards stabilization.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aryeh Klein with BMO Capital Markets.

Aryeh Klein

Obviously, a lot of positive trends out there. Just curious, from your perspective, what's really been the biggest delta or upside delta versus your expectations? Is it largely BT related? Is it on the pricing side? Just curious your thoughts there.

Marcel Verbaas

Yes. I think it's been every segment to some extent. So clearly, we came into the year with a very robust group pace. And generally, as the year goes along, you see some of that kind of abating as the year goes on because you don't know a lot of open periods anymore in the book and things of that nature. But it held up very well in the periods that we thought would be very strong. So the third quarter, we knew was always setting up very nicely compared to where we were last year certainly. And that's held up very nicely.

I think the biggest upside really has come from the transient side though, the type of business that you can't forecast too far out. So that's where really the positive surprise has come from and particularly on the corporate transient side that has been very robust getting into September and October, and driving really a lot of that upside that we're reflecting in the updated guidance.

Barry Bloom

I think we've seen a meaningful increase, Aryeh, in compression dates, and that's been driven in part by the good group base. But I think when you look at it and as both Atish and I mentioned kind of that the Tuesday, Wednesday pattern has really been very, very strong and has provided for a lot of compression on rate on those nights in many markets and in particular, some of the markets where we have not been seeing that over the last few years, so -- which are some of our biggest commercial demand-driven markets like Santa Clara, San Francisco, Houston, Dallas.

I think that's really been probably something that the piece that we had not forecasted at the start of the year. We certainly hope for it, but we're very pleased to see that come through.

Aryeh Klein

And then maybe just on Nashville. RevPAR growth outperformed total RevPAR growth there by a little bit. I know you made some F&B changes there. Can you just update us on kind of how that's been progressing and how you're thinking about maybe the upside potential there in '27?

Barry Bloom

Yes. I think, coming out of the renovation relaunching of the restaurants in, I guess, early -- really by early Q2 of this year, I think we're seeing the kind of cadence and progression and growth in the outlets that we had expected to see. Keep in mind that 4 outlets all with new names, all with new concepts and all affiliated with Jose Andres. But we're seeing, I think, continue to both week-over-week and month-over-month growth in those outlets in a way that we would have expected the progression to be.

What we've always counted on there, I think, was the ability of those restaurants to be a driver of both in all segments of demand. So first, I think we've seen that in leisure demand that leisure guests are more likely to stay there because they have this choice of world-class outlets with a world-class celebrity chef, who's design the menus for those outlets.

I think it's also part of what we've seen in really strong successor this year in the negotiated corporate market, where we -- the number of accounts we've picked up that are new. I think, is partly related to the hotel itself in the room, but I think partly related to the opportunities that, that frequent business traveler has to stay in the hotel for a great dining experiences. And then I think the piece we have still yet to see and I think is part of what we view as upside for 2027 is the opportunity to really tie group into that and really using a lot of those outlets as private dining spaces for buyouts, both at lunch and dinner. The hotel, as you know, is relatively light on meeting space. So I think the ability to provide a really unique experiences in banquets for lunch and dinner within the confines of those outlets and utilizing those menus is one of the pieces we think we still have a lot of upside to grow into.

Marcel Verbaas

From a financial standpoint, Aryeh, it's obviously early days, and we've talked about this. As we talked about rolling this out to open up 4 new venues all at the same time. There's obviously a lot of heavy lifting on the properties part. So there's certainly some growing gains as we go through that. So it's really optimizing each of those operations also optimizing staffing levels, hours, those kind of things. So this is definitely not a 2026 story as it relates to kind of the cash flow impact. It is really something that over time needs to start building and where we hope to see it really becoming very fruitful as we go through the next several years.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Darling with Green Street.

Chris Darling

You posted some pretty encouraging results in markets like Pittsburgh, Philly, New Orleans, these are also markets where you have a pretty significant amount of operating leverage. And so with that in mind, it'd be helpful if you could elaborate on the positive outcome this quarter, but also how you see performance trending in those markets on a go-forward basis?

Marcel Verbaas

Yes, specifically to the markets you mentioned, New Orleans, to be fair, came off a very weak base in the third quarter of last year. It's obviously an asset that is still operating at a RevPAR level that's pretty significantly below where you see the rest of our portfolio. So we look at that probably not as much as a driver for us going forward. Markets like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have been highly encouraging for us. We've definitely seen -- we talked about the benefit that we saw in Philadelphia from some of the onetime events. Clearly, we did have the OSAR game, America 250, World Cup, there are some things that really did help the market and the property.

But overall, there seems to be some really good positive momentum in the Philadelphia markets as opposed to what we saw in the last several years. And Pittsburgh has been a really steady performer for us and has continued to benefit from both playing in kind of the leisure entertainment business, but also on the corporate transient side with some big corporate accounts that just really have come back to the office there over the last, really over the last few months even. So we continue to see some really good benefits from both the leisure and the corporate transient side in that market.

Chris Darling

Understood. And then Atish, in your prepared remarks around the sustainability of BT demand in the next year. I want to say you mentioned a 7-point occupancy gap between pre-COVID levels and sort of a run rate for BT. Could you maybe elaborate on that point, if I had that right, and maybe talk about where the opportunity might be greater across your market profile?

Atish Shah

Yes. Why don't I start on that one, and Barry can add to it as well. Yes, the point I was specifically referring to was really about midweek demand where we still have $700 basis points or 7 occupancy points in -- to make up relative to where we were on those nights Tuesday, Wednesday in 2019. So pretty big gap there. And really, what I'm speaking to there is, frankly, the potential for continued recovery. And then on Mondays and Thursdays, the gap is even larger.

So despite the fact that we've had a really good year of growth in BT, there's a lot more opportunity. And we think over time that we'll continue to normalize and BT will return to prior levels. Certainly, some of the things we're seeing, both in terms of growth in the economy, trends have returned to office, some of the trends on the corporate negotiated side, the healthy overall labor market. All those things I think will contribute to benefiting. And there's still a lot of potential just to get back in terms [indiscernible] where we were before.

So that's really how we think about BT evolving here over the next couple of few years. It's certainly a case where there's quite a bit of potential yet remain for recovery.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

Unknown Analyst

This is Connor on with Jamie. Maybe staying on the corporate transient and the strength there, are more hotels getting to the point of filling mid weak enough to push rate. And is this backdrop showing up in the corporate rate negotiations that you're having for 2027?

Barry Bloom

For sure, it's showing up in current months and a big part, I think, of the rate opportunity that we've been able to achieve has been because occupancy is definitely getting more compressed in midweek and particularly on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. How that trends to our managers being able to get higher pricing out of the largest volume accounts for 2027. It's still a little too early in the RFP season for us to know definitively. But certainly, historically, they've not had -- they've not done as well as I think we and other owners would like in terms of pushing rates for the largest negotiated accounts out there.

What we are doing, particularly as we look at at this fourth quarter of 2026 and look at 2027 is really encouraging our hotels to find opportunities that may be better than the large scale negotiated corporate accounts. In other words, taking more group midweek that may be driving a little lower rate, but driving substantially improved food and beverage contributions and really making sure that they -- where they are able to price and where they have accounted on dynamic pricing. They're working with the revenue management systems to really drive rate on those nights where they're -- where they have compression.

Atish Shah

The only thing I'll add is compression nights for us were up about 10% in the quarter and are running up in the kind of mid- to high-teens percent year-over-year year-to-date. So that story, which is not just BT oriented more broad, but that was a big piece and one of the reasons why not only are you seeing absolute rate increases, but mix shift that's driving rate increases as we take more of the retail rack type grades as opposed to a lower rate of business across a variety of days [indiscernible].

Unknown Analyst

I appreciate the color. And maybe with Napa and the [indiscernible] starting later this year, can you walk us through the EBITDA displacement we should think about for 2027 and whether that's mostly a first quarter event or extends further into the year?

Atish Shah

Yes. In terms of EBITDA displacement, we talked about roughly the same level of displacement as this year, so $1 million. And that $1 million will be more in the first quarter and then a little bit related to some other smaller projects later in the year. So really not a big number overall for our size company and [indiscernible] portfolio. So really, the point being that beyond really the couple of projects we talked about, we don't have major projects that would be overly disruptive.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Marcel Verbaas for closing remarks.

Marcel Verbaas

Thanks, Maria. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Obviously, a very -- very pleased with our performance in the third quarter and the outlook for the remainder of this year. We continue to feel we're very well positioned for growth going forward. And we look forward to seeing many of you at the NAREIT conference in the next several weeks. And and we'll look forward to reporting again earlier -- early in 2027.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.