파트리아(PAX) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: 자금 조달 69억 달러 달성, FRE 가이던스 범위 축소

핵심 요약

• 파트리아(Patria)는 수수료 창출 자산 기반이 24% 확장됨에 따라 2026년 3분기 총 수수료 매출이 전년 동기 대비 16% 증가한 9,830만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다.
• 수수료 관련 이익(FRE)은 7% 증가한 5,280만 달러를 기록했습니다. FRE 마진은 53.7%였으며, 경영진은 마진이 높은 성과 보수 및 구조화 수수료에 힘입어 4분기 마진이 개선될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 분배 가능 이익(DE)은 4,690만 달러(주당 0.30달러)를 기록했습니다. 올해 누적 주당 DE는 14% 증가한 0.88달러를 기록했습니다.
• 자금 조달액은 3분기 24억 달러, 연간 누적 69억 달러를 달성하여 연간 목표인 70억 달러를 한 분기 앞당겨 사실상 달성했습니다. 경영진은 2026년 자금 조달 규모가 2025년에 조달한 77억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
• 파트리아는 최근 시장 변동성으로 인한 성과 보수 압박 가능성을 반영하여 2026년 FRE 가이던스를 2억 2,500만~2억 3,500만 달러(주당 1.42~1.48달러)로 범위를 좁혀 조정했습니다.
• 회사는 48억 달러 규모의 대기 중인 수수료 창출 운용자산(Fee-Earning AuM), 자금 조달 모멘텀 및 인수합병 통합에 힘입어 2027년 FRE 목표치인 2억 6,000만~2억 9,000만 달러를 재확인했습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

크레디트 및 글로벌 사모펀드 솔루션(GPMS)이 연간 누적 자금 조달을 주도하며 각각 전체의 약 40%와 22%를 차지했습니다. 인프라 및 2분기에 발표된 다중 자산 일임계좌(SMA)가 추가로 23%를 기여했습니다.

파트리아는 올해 들어 위탁 운용, SMA 및 유동성 솔루션을 통해 20억 달러 가까이를 조달했습니다. 경영진은 이러한 구조가 기존의 자금 인출형(drawdown) 펀드보다 더 장기적인 관계를 제공하고 자본 재활용을 가능하게 하며 운용, 구조화 서비스 및 투자 성과로부터 수수료를 창출할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.

2026년 초에 인수한 브라질 CLO 운용사인 솔리스(Solis)는 올해 들어 약 9억 4,500만 달러를 조달했습니다. 자금 조달은 주로 선순위 CLO 트랜치에 투자하는 맞춤형 폐쇄형 다각화 펀드에 집중되었습니다.

SMA 및 제3자 위탁 운용 펀드를 제외한 수수료 창출 AuM의 85% 이상이 설정 이후 벤치마크 이상의 성과를 내는 전략에 운용되고 있습니다. 크레디트 부문에서는 110억 달러의 수수료 창출 AuM을 대표하는 12개 주요 전략이 연간 누적, 1년 및 설정 이후 기준 모두 벤치마크를 상회하는 성과를 거두었습니다.

현재 30개 이상의 상품과 SMA가 150억 달러가 넘는 대상 AuM 전반에서 성과 보수 창출 잠재력을 보유하고 있습니다. 해당 자본의 40% 이상은 아직 집행되지 않았거나 투자 기간이 4년 미만입니다.

이번 분기 동안 인프라 부문 투자 집행액은 2억 달러를 초과했으며, 상당 부분이 데이터 센터에 배정되었습니다. 대기 중인 인프라 수수료 창출 AuM은 2분기 말 약 10억 달러에서 7억 달러로 감소했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 2026년 FRE를 2억 2,500만~2억 3,500만 달러(주당 1.42~1.48달러)로 예상하고 있으며, 이는 전년 대비 주당 11%~15% 성장에 해당합니다. 4분기 성과 보수, 특히 브라질 증권에 노출된 크레디트 펀드의 변동성 가능성을 고려하여 예상 범위를 좁혀 조정했습니다.

파트리아는 2027년 FRE 목표치인 2억 6,000만~2억 9,000만 달러(주당 1.60~1.80달러)를 재확인했습니다. 회사는 48억 달러 규모의 대기 중인 수수료 창출 AuM, 지속적인 자금 조달, 비용 관리 및 투자 성과를 뒷받침 요인으로 언급했습니다.

경영진은 또한 2027년 FRE 마진 목표치인 58%~60%를 유지했습니다. 예상되는 마진 개선은 주로 인수한 사업의 통합과 GPMS 및 기타 전략의 규모 확장에 연계되어 있습니다.

2026년 4분기의 경우, 경영진은 계절적 성과 보수 및 구조화 수수료에 힘입어 총 매출이 전분기 대비 의미 있게 증가할 것으로 예상합니다. 인건비는 3분기 상여금 충당금 조정 이후 2분기 수준에 가깝게 정상화될 것으로 예상되지만, 강한 매출 증가가 여전히 마진 개선을 뒷받침할 것으로 보입니다.

거래 비용은 파트리아가 인수 속도를 줄임에 따라 4분기에도 870만 달러 선을 유지하다가 2027년 1분기부터 추가로 감소할 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 또한 회사의 2027년 자금 조달 가이던스가 80억 달러로 유지된다고 밝혔습니다.

리스크 및 주시 영역

최근 브라질 시장의 변동성으로 인해 4분기 성과 보수가 줄어들 수 있습니다. 경영진은 성과가 관련 벤치마크 대비 측정되기는 하지만 파트리아 크레디트 포트폴리오의 증권 중 대략 3분의 1이 브라질과 연계되어 있다고 추정했습니다.

현재 환경은 사모펀드(PE) 및 그로스 에퀴티 회수(exit)와 관련 성과 보수 실현을 지연시킬 수 있습니다. 파트리아는 이미 2026년이나 2027년 사모펀드 성과 보수를 전망치에 반영하지 않은 상태였습니다.

상장된 브라질 부동산 투자기구는 고금리 환경에서 가치 평가 압박에 직면할 수 있습니다. 경영진은 이러한 펀드가 장부가치 대비 대략 5%~15% 할인된 가격에 거래되고 있으며, 이는 계획 수립 시 사용한 가정과 일치한다고 언급했습니다.

사모펀드 5호(Private Equity Fund V)는 2027년 9월 수수료 수취 기간 종료를 앞두고 있습니다. 경영진은 2027년 사모펀드 수수료 창출 AuM에 약 5%의 영향이 있을 것으로 예상하며, 이는 공동 투자 유입으로 일부 상쇄될 것으로 보고 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 파트리아가 지역, 자산군, 통화별로 다변화되어 있기 때문에 브라질 대선이 FRE나 자금 조달에 미치는 영향은 제한적일 것이라고 밝혔습니다. 매출의 약 20%가 브라질 헤알화로 표시되며, 소프트 통화 대비 기저 통화(hard currencies)가 10% 변동하더라도 FRE에 미치는 영향은 약 2%에 불과한 것으로 추정됩니다.

파트리아는 고금리 환경에서 브라질 크레디트 및 CLO 사업이 여전히 중요한 자금 조달 동력으로 작용할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 경영진은 또한 GPMS 위탁 운용, 인프라 상품 및 SMA 파이프라인이 2027년 잠재적 기여 요인이 될 것으로 강조했습니다.

운용 수수료율과 관련해 회사는 상장(IPO) 이후 약 1.5%에서 약 0.85%로의 하락세가 대부분 안정화되었다고 설명했습니다. 향후 변화는 사업 조합(business mix)에 따라 달라질 것이며, 대표 펀드보다 수수료율은 낮지만 수수료 수취 기간이 긴 장기 SMA 등이 여기에 포함됩니다.

경영진은 실적 발표 통화에서 논의된 최저한세 문제로 인한 2027년 세율의 실질적인 변화는 없을 것으로 예상합니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Patria Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Andre Medina, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Andre Medina

Good morning, and welcome to Patria's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Speaking today are Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Raphael Denadai. This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation available on our Investor Relations website and on Form 6-K furnished to the SEC. A replay will be available on our IR website.

As a reminder, today's call contains forward-looking statements, including statements relating to our guidance and targets, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Please refer to the forward-looking statements disclaimer and risk factors in our most recent Form 20-F. Patria reports under IFRS, and we will reference certain non-IFRS measures. Definitions and reconciliations to the most directly comparable IFRS measures are in the earnings presentation. With that, I'll hand it over to Alex.

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone.

Our third quarter results reflect progress toward our 2026 guidance and strong fundraising momentum across our increasingly diversified platform.

To start, our resilient Fee-Related Earnings continued to exhibit solid growth, reaching $52.8 million in the third quarter and $160.4 million year to date, or $1.01 per share, up 16% on a per share basis versus the same period last year.

With nine months behind us, we remain confident in delivering full-year 2026 guidance for Fee-Related Earnings and, at this point in the year, we can provide you with a narrower range of expectations, between $225 and $235 million, reflecting potential impacts of recent market volatility on incentive fees.

Distributable Earnings were $46.9 million in 3Q26, totaling $139.9 million year to date, or $0.88 per share, up 14% on a per share basis compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Raphael will soon take you through the quarter results in more detail. Powering this growth is our continued fundraising success. We raised $2.4 billion in 3Q, bringing our year-to-date total to $6.9 billion and effectively achieving our $7 billion full-year target one quarter ahead of schedule. This year-to-date performance positions 2026 to be another record year in fundraising, in excess of the $7.7 billion we raised in 2025.

It is worth noting that Credit and GPMS led our fundraising, at approximately 40% and 22% of the year-to-date total, respectively. Infrastructure and the multi-asset SMA announced in 2Q, which is expected to be allocated significantly into Infrastructure, represent an additional 23% of the year-to-date fundraising. These asset classes, comprising nearly 85% of our fundraising, are expected to continue to attract global and local investors in the current scenario.

A key driver of this fundraising momentum has been our ability to partner with some of the world's largest institutional investors, including institutions in Latin America, to develop investment solutions tailored to their specific objectives.

Year to date, we raised nearly $2 billion in mandates, SMAs, and liquidity solutions with leading global clients seeking to allocate capital in Latin America, through our Credit, Infrastructure, Private Equity, and Real Estate products, as well as with global and local clients seeking to allocate globally through our GPMS business.

Mandates of this kind are generally expected to have longer duration than commingled drawdown funds and to allow capital to be recycled. While our drawdown funds typically have 10-year terms and 6 to 7 years of duration, our SMAs, in general, have indefinite terms, with 70% of our mature SMAs already over a 10-year duration. In addition to management fees, they can generate diversified fee streams connected to structuring services and investment performance.

We have a significant pipeline of bespoke mandates for the next quarter, for 2027, and beyond. We have also been able to offer purpose-built new products to address the needs of local investors seeking to invest locally. Solis, the Brazilian CLO manager we acquired earlier this year, is a prime example of this strategy and has been an important growth driver of our business this year, raising approximately $945 million year to date. Solis has been particularly successful with institutional investors, developing customized closed-ended, multi-year, diversified funds investing predominantly in the senior tranches of the CLOs it originates and structures.

Of course, in addition to the contribution of a diversified platform capable of creating investment solutions for clients, our fundraising momentum would not be possible without differentiated investment performance. Over 85% of our Fee-Earning AuM, excluding SMAs and third-party managed funds, is in funds performing at or above their benchmarks since inception. Close to 80% of our fundraising over the last twelve months has been in those asset classes that are more consistently delivering on investors' objectives. For example, in Credit, which had another very successful quarter of fundraising, its 12 main strategies, which comprise $11 billion of Fee-Earning AuM, have outperformed their benchmarks YTD, 1 year and since inception.

Meanwhile, our active Infrastructure vintages are ahead of their benchmarks, and our GPMS funds continue to deliver attractive excess returns. You can see more details in the returns section of our earnings presentation. In addition to driving fundraising, success in our investments can unlock performance fees over the long term.

At our IPO, carried interest was largely confined to our flagship private equity and infrastructure funds. Today, more than 30 products and SMAs carry performance fee potential across more than $15 billion of Performance-Fee-Eligible AuM, more than 40% of which is undeployed or has been invested for less than four years and therefore has a number of years ahead to perform and compound.

Now, a word on the conclusion of the electoral cycle across our key markets in Latin America, capped by the Brazilian election on October 25th.

In Colombia, Peru and Chile, recent elections have brought new administrations. Those countries represent about 30% of our Fee-Earning AuM. Investors have generally received these outcomes positively, adding to the improvement in sentiment toward the Andean region. In Brazil, voters chose continuity. Brazilian markets reacted with volatility, and it is too early to assess the full implications for the macro outlook.

As of 3Q26, we have 40% of our Fee-Earning AuM invested in Brazil, of which approximately 60% (or approximately 25% of our total Fee-Earning AuM) comes from local clients and 40% (or approximately 15% of our total Fee-Earning AuM) from global clients.

This latter portion is held in structures with no redemption rights, denominated in U.S. dollars, that charge management fees on commitments or on cost. Of the remaining 25% of the Fee-Earning AuM, approximately 20% (or 5% of our total Fee-Earning AuM) is allocated to long-duration Private Equity and Infrastructure funds that charge on commitments or cost, approximately 35% (or 9% of our total Fee-Earning AuM) in Credit funds and approximately 45% (or 11% of our total Fee-Earning AuM) is in Real Estate.

Overall, around 20% of revenues is Real-denominated. While the outlook remains constructive for Credit, our Real Estate funds, of which virtually 100% is in non-redeemable permanent capital vehicles, are publicly traded and may adjust to a higher-interest-rate context, but, given their scale and liquidity, we see a clear pathway to continue to raise capital in this business through asset-for-shares exchanges.

In sum, given the diversification of our investor base, of our assets, and of our revenues and expenses by geography, asset class and currency, we see limited impact of the Brazilian election on FRE, and we do not currently expect the outcome to materially affect our fundraising.

Nearly 90% of our Fee-Earning AuM has no or limited redemption, and our FRE has very low sensitivity to FX. For example, a 10% movement in hard currencies relative to soft currencies impacts our FRE by only about 2%.

With respect to Performance-Related Earnings, PRE, the current environment could delay some private and growth equity exits and, with them, near-term realizations. However, our near-term expectations regarding Infrastructure-III-related carry, which totaled approximately $17 million of Net Accrued Performance Fees in the third quarter, do not change. As with respect to Private Equity exits, we were already not predicting any performance fees in 2026 nor in 2027.

Importantly, the underlying fundamentals that make Latin America an attractive market for investors remain unchanged - its diversified commodity exposure, its rich critical minerals reserves, its abundance in cost-competitive renewable energy, and its low exposure to geopolitical risks, just to name a few. Finally, since our IPO, the growing diversification of our platform has enhanced our ability to engage global investors and has proven our ability to raise capital and perform well across very different market and political environments. Our business is intentionally built for resilience - not by chance, but through a very well-articulated, planned, and executed strategy.

To conclude, as we approach the end of the year, we project a meaningful sequential uptick in total revenues, helped by structuring fees from some of the mandates we described earlier, as well as the incentive fees that are typically realized in the fourth quarter, although with respect to the latter we will need to observe the relative performance of some of our Credit funds denominated in dollars and their resulting incentive fees given the recent market volatility mainly in the Brazilian exposed securities.

These factors, combined with our continued cost discipline, lead us to expect Fee-Related Earnings in the range of $225 to $235 million for this year, or $1.42 to $1.48 per share, a year-over-year growth between 11% and 15% on a per share basis.

We also believe that with $4.8 billion in pending Fee-Earning AuM, fundraising momentum, ongoing expense management, and continued investment outperformance, we remain on pace to deliver our 2027 Fee-Related Earnings target of $260 to $290 million, or $1.60 to $1.80 per share. On that note, we look forward to providing you with more details on our various initiatives and our updated growth expectations for the years ahead up to 2030 at our December 7th Investor Day in New York. We hope to see many of you there in person.

With that, I will hand the call to Raphael to review our financial results. Thank you.

Raphael Denadai

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Let me walk you through our third quarter results.

We delivered another quarter of solid financial performance. Total Fee Revenues were $98.3 million, up 16% from a year ago. Year to date, Total Fee Revenues are up 22%. This growth was driven primarily by the expansion of our fee-earning asset base, which grew 24% year over year on net organic inflows, positive investment performance and acquisitions. Our management fee rate remained broadly stable at approximately 84 basis points.

Looking ahead, we expect fee revenue growth to pick up in the fourth quarter, with the seasonal incentive fees and the structuring fees Alex mentioned, and which we report within Other Fee Revenues. Structuring fees are becoming a more consistent part of our revenues, even if their timing and size can vary from quarter to quarter.

Turning to profitability, Fee-Related Earnings for the third quarter were approximately $52.8 million, up 7% year over year. Our FRE margin was 53.7% in 3Q26. We expect a margin increase in the fourth quarter due to the contribution of higher-margin incentive and structuring fees, combined with cost discipline.

Also, it's worth reiterating that our financial results are well insulated from currency volatility. We continue to estimate that a 10% movement in hard currencies relative to soft currencies impacts our FRE by only about 2%. Distributable earnings were $46.9 million in the quarter, or $0.30 per share. DE per share was flat versus 3Q25 due to the low effective tax rate of 3.3% in 3Q25 which reflected one-off credits related to our UK operations, as discussed during our 3Q25 earnings call. Year to date, DE per share totaled $0.88, up 14% compared to the same period one year ago.

Stock-based compensation was $10.1 million in the quarter and $33.7 million year to date, or about 11.3% of Total Fee Revenues, in line with our guidance. Transaction costs declined to $8.7 million, and, as I mentioned last quarter, we expect a similar amount for the fourth quarter with additional decreases from the first quarter of 2027 given that we reduced the pace of M&A. Our balance sheet remains an important source of financial flexibility. We continue to manage our capital structure prudently, maintaining a disciplined approach to liquidity, leverage and capital allocation. An updated view of our incurred liabilities through 2028 is available in the reconciliations and disclosures section of our earnings presentation.

Overall, our third-quarter performance reinforces our confidence in the strength of our business model, the scalability of our platform and our ability to deliver sustainable earnings growth. We look forward to sharing more about our long-term strategy and growth opportunities at our upcoming Investors Day in New York on December 7th. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler of Bank of America.

질의응답

Unknown Analyst

This is Ivory Galon on for Craig. So Lula has been Brazil's President for the most part of the last 20 years. So what changes do you expect to financial services or the private markets business in Brazil with this next administration?

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

This is Alex Saigh here. Thank you very much for participating in our call. I have here with me Jose Teixeira, that you know, our partner and Head of IR, together with Andre Medina, member of his team; also Daniel Sorrentino, which is our Head of Capital Formation and Partner for Patria.

So thanks a lot again. Well, of course, it's hard to say how Lula is going to behave in his fourth term. But our vision is that it's going to be pretty much the same as his last four years as President. He's been pretty consistent, I think, over the last three terms, the way that he runs the country. And I think he will continue being the same for the last four years of his political career as President of Brazil.

What does that mean, I think, for Brazil and us? I think Lula has always, I think, run a primary surplus. And in his first mandate, he actually did run even a total surplus being extremely physically disciplined. I think the challenge of Brazil right now is that in his third term and going into his fourth term, you have a high level of debt that he's going to have to tackle in some shape and form.

The way that we see him tackling over past governments was actually being pretty much disciplined, and actually, our view at least, he will have to actually present a somewhat conservative budget for next year where the main issue of Brazil today, which is the high indebtedness level will be tackled.

So we have been running Patria for the last 25 years under his leadership or the leadership of the labor party. And we have been able to actually navigate and be very successful. So particularly for Patria and the way that we actually did shape the company over the last years, more guided to credit-related products, we see that our fundraising will continue to be pretty positive in Brazil, again, mainly because of the shift of our products that we offer in Brazil today.

As mentioned in my part of the call, around 20% of the revenues are Real-denominated, around 35% of the revenues are assets that are invested in Brazil versus over 85%, 90% when we did go public. So we did diversify the business away from Brazil very significantly over the last five years.

And our FRE is only affected by 2% when soft currencies do devalue or weaken versus hard currency. And that's what we saw in the last years for us here. So again, we are not at all pessimistic. We are even cautiously realistic about what's going on in Brazil right now. I think we are where we were two months ago, which is basically when we did develop and actually write our three-year plan that we gave out in our PAC 2024 Day December of 2024. We gave out our 2027 guidance for FRE, and we continue to confirm that. So we will deliver the guidance for this year between $225 million and $235 million.

We narrowed the gap a little bit because potential effects on our incentive fees but still delivering an 11% to 14% growth on FRE per share basis versus last year year-over-year. And we also gave the message that we are confirming the guidance for 2027, $260 million to $290 million and now growing also another 10% to 15% year-over-year, '27 over '26.

Because why can we do that today? Because we have less exposure to Brazil. We still think that Brazil is going to perform reasonably well as it did over the last four years. Our menu in Brazil has shifted to more the credit products, which do better doing higher interest rate environments. Within the credit products, our main product is the originating and structuring of CLOs where we place the senior notes. So within a more eventual tighter credit scenario, we're fine because the senior notes has, as you know, the junior notes is a buffer.

And we have been performing extremely well over the last four years. And as we move out of Brazil, the other 2/3 of our business, which is today outside of Brazil, and in region doing pretty well, I think better than what we expected in December of 2024 because we had a shift politically to the right, mainly in our key markets, Chile, Colombia and Brazil and Peru, I'm sorry. And 1/3 of the business is already outside of LatAm, where we're having a lot of success in structuring liquidity solution-related products for our clients globally that wants to be exposed to private equity mid-market globally the way that we've been able to do that.

So again, the final message is different moving parts in our business, but relatively less exposed to Brazil, more exposed to further business outside of Brazil, in the end, confirming the guidance for this year, confirming the guidance for next year on FRE.

DE, I think the same. I think we did try to convey that during my part of the message here that this is also going to grow on a per share basis, 10% to 15% this year, 2026 versus last year, 2025 and 2027 versus 2026, the same.

I would like to point out that our EPS, our earnings per share should start performing very well 2027 versus 2026 because as we focus more on organic fundraising and we do a smaller number of acquisitions, very selective pointed acquisition as we did buy all of the main asset classes that we went into credit, we went into GPMS, private equity solutions, we went into real estate Brazil.

Now we're going to be more selective. So the substantial reduction on transactions costs and deferred payments in 2026 will push earnings up, net income up significantly in 2027.

So our Earnings Per Share are going to grow more than the 10% to 15% that I mentioned for FRE per share, and DE per share. So again, because of what we did, again, by strategy, not by chance, we're pretty much positive with 2027. I hope I answered your question.

Unknown Analyst

Yes. Very comprehensive. And then for a follow-up, last quarter, you pointed to the data center initiative as one use of your infrastructure dry powder and said you had line of sight to deploying about $1 billion of pending infrastructure fee-earning AuM. So how much of that $1 billion has started earning fees since then? And is the data center initiative a meaningful part of it?

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

Ivory, this is Jose here. So you can see in our presentation that from the $1 billion that we had in pending fee-earning AuM as of the end of 2Q, we now have $0.7 billion. You can also see on the fee-earning AuM rollover that there has been deployment in infra of north of $200 million. A substantial part of that is also going into the data centers deployment. Of course, you have other infra funds and vehicles deploying, but that's a meaningful part of our deployment. And we should continue to see healthy deployment out of the infra program, not only for data centers, but also for the other vehicles co-investments in et cetera.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ricardo Buchpiguel of BTG Pactual.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

This quarter, realization and particularly private equity pressured the Fee Earning AUM, and I understand that we should see further realizations over the coming quarters. So could you comment on how much realizations for or even infrastructure should we expect by January 2027, which I understand is the next semiannual Fee Earning AuM adjustment? And if possible, if you could give us some sense of what's reasonable to expect in terms of realizations for the 2027 as a whole would be great.

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

Ricardo, Jose here again. Thanks for the question. First of all, it gives me the opportunity to point everyone towards Page 24 of our updated deck or the presentation on this quarter, where we actually highlight the management fee mechanics as well as the sort of the different seasons in which each of our drawdown funds is at this point. I think it's very important to contextualize where all the funds are.

As you will see for that as well as where the different funds are in their lifetime, you see that our base case quite reasonably is that P6 and P7 should see no significant change in their asset base over the next let's say, 15 months if we count the fourth quarter, right? I would say, even marginally speaking, in the current scenario, even less likely that you have divestments from PE 6 and 7 at this point in their lifetime. So we don't expect a change in that part of the private equity fee basis, right?

Where should we expect a change in Fund V, which has been in divestment mode for a while now, you've been following that. And you can see in the figures in the presentation itself that, as you pointed out, Ricardo, the lower fee base is a result of certain divestments in the private equity, right? So these divestments will affect how much we charge in fees in the first semester of 2027. Reminding everyone, as you see here in the presentation, that by September 2027, you would end the fee collection period for Fund V. So we have a limited time with Fund V, but Fund V has become a very small part of revenues. And this drop in the Fund V Fee-Earning AuM base is being compensated partially by inflows coming from the co-investments.

I think most notably recently, the Banmedica deal, which we raised in Chile. We're finalizing the raising in Colombia. This is why we haven't closed and the Colombia part is not yet in our inflows. You're likely to see this over the next few months, possibly in the fourth quarter. But that's compensating the effect of the P5 drop on the Fee Earning AuM. Net-net, looking into 2027, we expect to see an effect of less than 5% or around 5%, let's put it that way, of fee-earning AuM for private equity next year, okay?

And I should mention, since the compensation is happening due to co-investments that the fee basis for these co-investments is very close to the LTM average for the private equity division. So I think we do not expect -- well, I'll let you guys judge what's meaningful, what's not, but it's like a 5% ballpark effect on private equity, which as of this quarter is 17% of our net revenues. So that's for you to size the importance and judge the relevance.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

That's super clear. And for my follow-up, if you could provide more color on what drove the quarter-over-quarter decline in personnel expenses during Q3. And what should we expect for this line over the coming quarters also would be helpful.

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

Probably now they can comment, but I'll just -- we're basically -- number one, we continue to work on integrating the acquisitions. But certainly, this quarter, an effect of our adjusting as a result of our narrowing of the range. The narrowing of the range means that we're narrowing and we can talk more about it, but we're narrowing our expectations for the year. We adjust provisions for bonus and performance-related payments as we should, right? As we adjust the expectations for the overall delivery of the year, we adjust also expectations for payments related to performance in the company. And going forward, we do think this is a level that we should expect something around that level going into the fourth quarter.

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

Raphael, do you want to complement anything that Jose mentioned?

Raphael Denadai

No. I think that Jose said that we're seeing the sequential decline in compensation expense was primarily driven by these adjustments that we had in our bonus accrual to better align the year-to-date provision with our year-to-date performance as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of William Barranjard of Itau BBA.

William Buonsanti Barranjard

I have a question here regarding fundraising. So last year, you delivered better than initially expected fundraising. This year, you're already at $6.9 billion compared to the $7 billion annual target. So I wanted to understand what is the main reason in your view for these expectations beat? And I wanted to ask about the pipeline for '27. And compared to your current view on '27, where you and us could be seen as more conservative? Where could the beat come if it comes again for a third sequential year, but that's it.

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

Right. Well, I think that the overall, and we put that on the remarks, Alex, I think, spoke about that. I think we see the -- let's say, the fundamental drivers of our fundraising, they are relatively intact. Of course, that you see a little more volatility in Brazil post-election, and you see a marginal improvement in the conditions in the Andean region. But essentially, when we look at what is even in Brazil, let's take the case that is in Vogue right now. What is driving our fundraising in Brazil is mainly the credit platform, right, mainly the CLO opportunity. And we expect it to remain growing at a very healthy pace as it's been growing over the past 12 months since we acquired or since the months that we acquired and as Solis has been growing in the past. So I think the outlook for that specific part of the business remains constructive. And so even in the context of Brazil, we continue to see a benign outlook for certain parts of the business, which are growing this year and should continue to grow next year.

I think GPMS continues to be a very important part of the business and driving growth. I think you continue to see mandates. We have a good pipeline for mandates within GPMS that should continue to be a big part of our growth. And also, I think this year, so far, because we're not raising a flagship and because some of the new initiatives such as the InfraCore have not yet closed, but I think are well underway to close and some SMA mandates that are in the works have not yet closed.

I think you should see some of those kicking in as well and helping us grow next year. So overall, we continue to be positive in the outlook. We're not changing the guidance because it's hard to predict what will be closed in 4Q versus 1Q and et cetera, but we continue to be confident that we have a healthy pipeline to deliver and perhaps surpass our guidance in fundraising. Next year, we gave a guidance for $8 billion. It looks very global given that what we expect to do this year and what the pipeline looks like for next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Grespan of JPMorgan.

Guilherme Grespan

My question is just actually a follow-up from a few comments. I think Alex touched on fundraising. Jose touched a little bit on the private equity deployment. But my question is more how to think about average management fee rates going forward, if it's too early to call for an inflection or not. It's a little bit hard to us because I think there are a few moving parts happening here. You have private equity losing share, which is a higher-than-average fee rate. But you have the deployment of pending fee AuM in infra, maybe we're going to have lower share from real estate and public equities ahead with the Brazil outcome. Just want to get your sense and what is your base case today for the outlook of average rates going forward.

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

It's a hard question, and I'll put it this way. I think we're at the point, right, that after all the process of business development that we have implemented since the IPO with the average fees going from 1.5 to 0.85, which you see now.

We are now clearly seeing that we don't have that sort of pressure. So in a sense, the growth in Fee Earning AuM, the record fundraising that you see should more and more translate into net revenue organic growth, not only in AuM organic growth that we have been accelerating over the past few years, right? In the first four years after the IPO, the CAGR in organic growth was 9% do the calculation from the IPO to the end of '24 and is accelerating to ballpark 15-plus percent from the end of '24 until now. So we've been accelerating organic growth, but part of that has been mitigated by the pressure in fees. What we can say now is that we're at a point where, certainly, we don't have that level of pressure anymore.

And we have the mix, a mix that as you probably can gather from the comments earlier on. If you just look at the mix, it's hard to tell whether the fees are going to increase a bit or go down a bit. But even intra each asset class, I think what we're seeing is the development of longer duration relationships with clients.

And so in some cases, you might have an SMA that where we are exchanging much longer duration. I think Alex mentioned in his comments, right, you have a duration of 10 to 12 years in some mandates. And then those could have slightly lower fees than, let's say, a flagship fund, but they will have a much longer duration. At the end of the day, we're managing the company here looking at the FRE, FRE per share, DE per share and not looking at the average fee. We're looking at healthy ways of growing our bottom line and our per share economics. So hard to guide on that. But certainly, whatever pressure we have had in average fee, I think it's largely eased off, and we expect now to see more net organic growth in Fee Earning AuM being translated to organic growth in net revenues.

Guilherme Grespan

That's clear. And if I may, a quick follow-up, just on taxes. You have a few companies that we cover not in the asset management side, but on financials that are based in specific geographies that they are calling for higher taxes given the minimum tax rate in 2027 under Pillar 2. Do you see any impact for next year in terms of tax rate or no?

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

No, no. I think we'll continue to have a similar level of tax for next year. Do you mean connected to elections or something?

Guilherme Grespan

No. with changes in minimum tax rate depending on the geography, there are a few payment companies specifically calling for higher average tax rate because some jurisdictions are going to have a minimum threshold for tax. And even your holding is not in Brazil and not in LatAm, I was just thinking here if there's going to be any implication to you or not as a read through. But apparently, no, right? No.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tiago Binsfeld of Goldman Sachs.

Tiago Binsfeld

Our question is on our margin trajectory. We see that FRE margin was 54%. That's down from one year ago, closer to 59%. And you mentioned you expect a positive outlook in the fourth quarter. But how should we expect or how should we think about margins beyond 4Q? Do you think that will be an inflection point? Can you discuss a little bit what are the main efficiency drivers you working beyond the consolidation of the recent acquisitions?

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

No, I think, maybe Alex can complement and if Adelaide wants to complement. I think what I would say is that we have a standing guidance of 58% to 60% for next year. The main drivers are -- you stole my thunder there, Tiago, because the main driver is integration from acquisitions in the shorter term, right? But yes, so I think that's the main driver. Of course, there are several initiatives that are related to investments in efficiency, including AI that would take a long conversation to describe here. But the main driver of margin gains that we expect looking into next year is better integration of the acquisitions.

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

Yes. If I can complement, this is Alex here, Tiago. We have been able to integrate past acquisitions where we saw margin compression two, three quarters after the acquisition and then margin improvement after that back to the 58%, 60%. We're seeing the same trajectory for '27 after we did buy these businesses this year, which did operate with lower margins like Solid and WP, Same with the GPMS or carve-out from the Aberdeen business.

And then slowly quarter after quarter, we bring it back to the 58%, 60% overall. In addition to that, as our other asset classes continue to scale, the margins continue to actually increase. So that helps also push the lower-margin businesses to the average for the firm, 58%, 60%. It is a very scalable business in that sense. And as you know, we are putting more money to work with GPMS.

As Jose mentioned a couple of minutes ago, very successful fundraising for that asset class. And just to give you some of the details of how we operate there. As you know, it's a fund of fund business, primary, secondary and co-invest. We're making x amount of million checks for our relationships in the primary business, fund of fund business. We can double that size of the check and basically the same team doing the analysis. So if we're committing $20 million, $40 million for a specific fund of a manager that we like that we support, we can commit double that amount to the same fund of that manager that we support with the same team analyzing and doing the diligence, et cetera. So it's a very scalable business in that sense.

Most of our businesses are very scalable, but the ones that are actually performing better in the fundraising cycle today, GPMS namely, we see that scalability to it. So besides integrating the businesses that we did acquire that did operate with lower margins, the businesses that we had already acquired continue to increase margin as they scale. So these factors together make us comfortable that we'll come back to the 58% to 60% FRE margin going forward.

As I also mentioned and using your question as a point of connection here, we see that our SBC Stock Based Compensation kind of flattened out at around 12%, 11%, 12% of net revenues. So our FRE after SBC per share will continue to grow very healthily because we also have a policy of maintaining, as we mentioned, the number of shares outstanding at around 160 million shares. That also puts us on a DE after SBC per share in a good shape to grow healthily in 2027. And even more so, our EPS, our Earnings Per Share and net income per share because as we stop doing very large acquisitions, transactions costs related to those acquisitions, deferred payments related to those acquisitions are being run off, are being paid and then, of course, not part of our expense lines as we go forward in 2027, '28. So you'll see that the percentage of growth, the CAGR of our EPS will be very, very healthy over the next couple of years and beyond. So I hope I answered your question there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nicolas Vaysselier of BNPP.

Nicolas Vaysselier

I'm just wanting a clarification on FRPR. So over the last couple of years, you've printed around just over 10 million every year in FRPR in Q4. You've narrowed the guidance range for FRE by similar amounts. So I'm just wondering how much of the FRPR achieved last year was related to vehicles that are focused on Brazil and might be sensitive to public market valuations? And then related to this, I also seem to remember that over time, the proportion of your fee-paying AUM that is charging fees on NAVs or market cap has increased a bit in your mix. And I was wondering if you could remind us how much it is today and how much of that is related as well to vehicles that are heavily focused on Brazil and if it could imply a bit more volatility in the coming quarters on your management fee revenues?

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

Okay. Thank you very much, Nicolas. This is Alex here. On the incentive fee breakdown from our credit-related products, we have funds that, of course, are exposed to Brazilian securities and of course, using the Brazilian benchmarks, relevant benchmarks for that. And we have funds also exposed to another benchmark, which is SOFR. So it's different benchmarks. We, I think, conservatively narrowed the gap by $10 million, which was around $10 million to $12 million that we posted as incentive fees for the fourth quarter of 2025.

So some of the funds that are not exposed to Brazilian securities are more exposed to other securities around the region, Latin America and are exposed also to other benchmarks like SOFR that I mentioned, they have different performances.

So overall, I think what we see that 1/3 of the securities in our credit portfolio are somewhat related with Brazil. So that could suffer. But of course, we also have to understand how the benchmark also suffered. So we continue to outperform the benchmark, but conservatively, given the volatility, not the outperformance of the team, we decided to be more conservative.

If we continue to outperform the benchmark as we have, we might have a good surprise and we might be able to, again, post FRE closer to the top of the new range that we gave of 235.

So given the volatility, Nicolas, and given that it's very hard to say what's going to happen and how the markets might react and how our team is going to perform with such volatility, we decided to be more conservative, not more than that.

But your second part of the question was on NAV. Most of our funds that are NAV that charge management fees on NAVs that are exposed to Brazil are our real estate listed trusts. We were already operating prior to the first ballot of the Brazilian presidential elections with these funds at a certain discount to book value. They're already trading at 5% to 15% discounts to book value.

So when we did actually project 2026 numbers, we didn't have the first ballot in our minds. We didn't expect Mr. Bolsonaro to win the first ballot for Brazilian presidential election. So we expected these funds to continue to trade at a 5% to 15% discount to book value, and our projections reflect that. After Mr. Bolsonaro won the first ballot for the Brazilian presidential elections, these funds actually traded up closer to NAV. And then after Mr. Bolsonaro lost and Mr. Lula won, they traded back to the same 5% to 15% discount that they were traded before Mr. Bolsonaro won the first ballot.

So we had three weeks there of an up and then down again. So they went back to where we were expecting. So nothing really changed, to be honest, besides these three weeks, which is a very small period during a 52-week period here. And when we did actually work on the budget, which was October, September, working on the 2027 budget, our expectations were that Mr. Lula would win the election, because at that time, Mr. Lula was ahead of the post.

So when we do confirm the FRE guidance for 2027, $260 million, $290 million is a budget that was actually produced or worked on with an expectation that Mr. Lula would win its fourth term. Again, being a little repetitive here, we were not expecting to have this uptick in the market with Mr. Bolsonaro coming out first in the first ballot. We expect Mr. Lula actually to win and come out first in the first ballot and become President of Brazil in the second ballot. So these three weeks of exception do not really affect our numbers. I hope I answered your question.

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. So I would like to turn it back to Alex Saigh, CEO, for closing remarks.

Jose Augusto de Araujo Teixeira

Just Alex, before you take the concluding remarks here, just a correction. I was warned by the finance team. We had the adjustment of the provisions and the performance-related metrics in compensation in the third quarter and should normalize in the fourth quarter in a level around more closer or closer to what we had in the second quarter, but still margins improving given the seasonal and natural better revenues that we have in the business because of better management fees, incentive fees, structuring fees and so forth in the fourth quarter.

Alexandre Teixeira de Assumpção Saigh

Okay. Thank you, Jose. So again, thank you very much all for participating. I know it's a busy day for you guys with other of our peers posting results. I finish the call here extremely happy and positive about what Patria and what we have done with our business over the last 5 years. We did actually buy strategy and with, I think, a very well-executed plan, put Patria in a very good position to continue performing on the diverse different scenarios. We are outperforming in GPMS outside of LatAm. We're outperforming LatAm ex Brazil with a very positive and in-region outlook. And even with Mr. Luda as a fourth mandate, which we already predicted that Mr. Luda would win the elections for President of Brazil, we see 2026 delivering the guidance for FRE.

We see 2027 delivering the guidance that we gave you guys as well on an absolute number on a per share basis, growing around 10% to 15%, '26 versus '27. So again, happy to be able to take this call with all of you.

And as a last note, we will then be presenting our 2030 plan, which, of course, includes 2027, which I just mentioned, in New York, in person at the NASDAQ building December 7, Monday, starting mid of the day around with a light lunch and taking on the early part of the afternoon for another three hours. So I hope that you guys can join us in person better, but online, great. I hope to see you there. So also thank you guys for your support, and thank you for another year of 2026. See you then. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.