엑셀론(EXC) 2026년 3분기 실적 설명회: EPS 가이던스 범위 축소, 전력망 투자 상방 여력

핵심 요약

• 엑셀론은 2026년 3분기 조정 영업이익이 주당 0.87달러를 기록해 2025년 3분기의 0.86달러 대비 증가했다고 발표했습니다. 승인된 배전 및 송전 요금, 비용 절감, 호의적인 기상 조건이 폭풍, 이자 및 세금 비용 증가를 상쇄했습니다.
• 경영진은 연간 2026년 조정 영업 EPS 가이던스를 $2.85~$2.91로 좁혔으며, 중간값 이상을 달성하는 것을 목표로 하고 있습니다.
• 회사는 2025년부터 2029년까지 연간 조정 영업 EPS 예상 성장률이 5%~7% 범위의 상단에 근접할 것이라는 전망을 재확인했습니다.
• 엑셀론의 417억 달러 규모 자본 투자 계획은 16%의 송전 부문 성장을 포함하여 7.9%의 예상 요금 기산액 성장을 뒷받침합니다.
• 경영진은 현재 계획 외에도 120억~170억 달러 규모의 추가 송전 투자 기회와 30억~70억 달러 규모의 잠재적 규제 대상 에너지 저장 투자 기회를 확인했습니다.
• 엑셀론은 2026년으로 계획된 모든 부채 조달을 완료했으며, 2029년까지 필요한 34억 달러 규모의 자본 조달 필요액 중 약 30%에 대해 가격 책정을 완료했습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

전년 동기 대비 EPS 증가에는 감가상각비를 차감한 승인 배전 및 송전 요금 상승분인 주당 0.06달러, AFUDC(건설중자본화이자) 0.01달러, 기상 효과 0.01달러 및 비용 절감 0.03달러가 포함되었습니다. 이러한 이점은 폭풍 관련 비용 0.07달러 및 이자·세금 비용 0.04달러에 의해 대부분 상쇄되었습니다.

사업 및 영업 실적

엑셀론 산하 4개 유틸리티 자회사는 2025년 최종 벤치마킹 결과에서 미국 동종 유틸리티 기업 중 전력 신뢰도 1위, 2위, 5위, 6위를 기록했습니다. 올해 현재까지 약 31건의 주요 기상 이벤트가 발생하는 동안 전력망 투자를 통해 추정 660만 건의 고객 정전을 예방했다고 회사는 밝혔습니다. 영향을 받은 고객의 94%는 48시간 이내에 전력이 복구되었습니다.

엑셀론 관할 지역 전반에서 규제 관련 심의가 지속되었습니다. 메릴랜드주는 9.4%의 자기자본이익률(ROE) 및 50.5%의 자기자본비율을 바탕으로 펩코(Pepco)의 5,090만 달러 규모 전력 매출 요구액 인상을 승인했습니다. BGE의 배전 요금 신청 건은 2027년 1월 최종 명령이 예정되어 있습니다.

델마바 파워(Delmarva Power)는 환급 조건을 전제로 12월에 신청액의 75%에 해당하는 임시 요금을 적용할 것으로 예상합니다. ComEd는 2억 500만 달러 규모의 송배전 조정에 합의했으며, 12월 20일까지 최종 명령이 나올 것으로 예상됩니다.

엑셀론은 ComEd의 전력망 계획이 약 153억 달러의 비용 대비 515억 달러의 고객 혜택을 창출할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 최종 명령은 12월 15일까지 나올 것으로 예상됩니다.

기본 자본 투자 계획 외에도 경영진은 향후 10년 동안 120억~170억 달러 규모의 송전 투자 기회가 있을 것으로 전망합니다. 송전 프로젝트는 사업 규모에 따라 상업 운전을 시작해 수익에 기여하기까지 약 3년에서 7년이 걸릴 수 있습니다.

회사는 또한 1.5~3.5기가와트에 달하는, 금액으로는 약 30억~70억 달러 규모의 잠재적 규제 대상 에너지 저장 투자를 확인했습니다. 경영진은 제안된 500메가와트 규모의 뉴저지 배터리 프로젝트가 7억 달러 이상의 순 고객 혜택을 창출하고 운영 첫 5년 동안은 고객 요금 인상 부담이 없을 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 규제 당국의 결정은 2027년 1분기 말에 나올 것으로 예상됩니다.

경영진 가이던스

엑셀론의 4분기 전망은 배전 및 송전 요금 인상, 2025년의 특정 일회성 항목 재발 없음, 공정한 규제 결과, 평년 수준의 기상 및 폭풍 활동, 2026년 상반기에 기록된 운영 및 유지보수 지출 시점 효과의 환입을 전제로 합니다.

경영진은 2029년까지 연간 조정 영업 EPS 성장률이 5%~7% 범위의 상단에 근접할 것이라는 입장을 재확인했습니다. 이러한 전망은 417억 달러 규모의 자본 투자 계획, 7.9%의 요금 기산액 성장률, 비용 관리 및 균형 잡힌 자금 조달 전략을 바탕으로 합니다.

기본 계획은 앞서 밝힌 송전 및 에너지 저장 부문의 추가 성장 기회에 의존하지 않습니다. 엑셀론은 인허가 및 적절한 비용 회수 메커니즘을 확보한 후에만 해당 투자를 추가할 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

리스크 및 주목할 점

• 폭풍 활동으로 인해 3분기 조정 영업이익이 주당 0.07달러 감소하여 날씨와 관련된 수익 변동성이 지속되고 있음을 보여주었습니다.
• PJM의 신뢰도 백스톱 경매가 연기되었으며, IRAS 제안은 관할권 문제로 거부되었습니다. 경영진은 공급, 신뢰성 및 가격 적정성에 대한 지역 차원의 진전이 여전히 너무 더디다고 말했습니다.
• 실적 발표 설명회에서 논의된 수치에 따르면, PJM은 2030년까지 약 11.5기가와트의 설비 용량 부족에 직면할 수 있습니다.
• 송전 및 에너지 저장 기회는 규제 승인, 프로젝트 실행 및 비용 회수에 달려 있습니다. 유틸리티 기업의 에너지 저장 장치 소유권은 현재 뉴저지, 메릴랜드, 델라웨어주에서 허용되고 있으며, 다른 주에서는 법률 개정이 필요합니다.
• 회사는 추가적인 자본 투자 기회가 약 40%의 자기자본을 포함할 수 있는 균형 잡힌 방식으로 조달될 것으로 예상합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 배터리 저장 프로젝트의 개발 기간이 송전 프로젝트보다 짧다고 밝혔습니다. 제안된 뉴저지 프로젝트는 승인 후 3년이 채 되지 않아 상업 운전을 시작할 수 있습니다. 또한 건설·소유·양도(BOT) 구조는 건설 종료 시점에 자본 지출을 집중시켜 현금 투입부터 요금 기산액 반영까지의 기간을 단축할 수 있습니다.

프로젝트 심사가 진행됨에 따라 엑셀론의 대규모 전력 수요 집단 연구 파이프라인은 25기가와트에서 23기가와트로 감소했습니다. 경영진은 이러한 감소가 광범위한 수요 변화보다는 정상적인 선별 작업의 결과라고 설명했습니다. 실현 가능성이 높은 약 11기가와트의 전력 수요 중 일부만이 현재 계획에 포함되어 있습니다. 경영진은 약 10%가 2028년까지, 그리고 약 4분의 3이 2034년까지 가동될 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.

대규모 전력 수요 개발자들은 송전 보증 계약을 통해 담보를 계속 제공하고 있습니다. 엑셀론은 이러한 계약이 투기성 프로젝트를 제거하고 대규모 전력 수요 개발에 따른 비용으로부터 기존 고객을 보호하는 데 도움이 된다고 말했습니다.

경영진은 투자 계획이 갱신됨에 따라 송전 분야가 자본 투자의 주요 대상으로 유지될 것으로 기대합니다. 에너지 저장은 추가적인 상승 여력을 제공할 수 있지만, 투자는 고객 수요, 경제성, 인허가 및 비용 회수 메커니즘에 따라 각 관할 지역별로 배분될 것입니다.

실적 발표 전사록 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, and welcome to Exelon's Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Michelle, and I will be your event specialist today. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Ryan Brown, Vice President of Investor Relations. The floor is yours.

Ryan Brown

Great. Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the 2026 third quarter earnings call. Leading the call today are Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Kleczynski, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. Other members of Exelon's senior management team are also with us today and will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks.

Today's presentation, along with our earnings release and other financial information can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. We would also like to remind you that today's presentation and the associated earnings release materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. You can find the cautionary statements on these risks on Slide 2 of today's presentation or in our SEC filings.

In addition, today's presentation includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations between these measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures can be found in the appendix of the presentation and in our earnings release.

It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Calvin Butler, Exelon's President and CEO.

Calvin Butler

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with you all again. Through the first 9 months of the year, Exelon continues the strong execution you've come to expect of this organization. This morning, we reported adjusted operating earnings of $0.87 per share, ahead of expectations, and narrowed our full year guidance to $2.85 to $2.91 per share. It starts with our most fundamental responsibility, providing the safe, reliable energy our customers and communities count on while keeping bills as low as possible. The final 2025 reliability benchmarking results reinforce that point. Our utilities continue to lead the sector. Our four operating companies now rank first, second, fifth and sixth for electric reliability among their U.S. utility peers. That consistency comes from years of disciplined investment and the expertise and commitment of our more than 20,000 employees. And importantly, we deliver that industry-leading reliability while keeping customer bills below the national average, despite significant increases in PJM-driven supply costs, which are outside of our control.

The rankings are important, but the proof is in how our system and our people perform when customers need us most. We saw that during one of the most active storm seasons in recent memory. Year-to-date, our teams have responded to approximately 31 significant weather events across our jurisdictions, including three major storms in [ ComEd ] territory this summer that each impacted more than 400,000 customers. Across those events, we faced 57 confirmed tornadoes and 2 derechos. Even in those most extreme conditions, our grid investments help prevent an estimated 6.6 million customer outages, and we were able to restore service to 94% of our customers in less than 48 hours. Those results mean fewer disrupted workdays and school base and more time with power for the businesses and public services our communities rely on.

And what makes that performance even more meaningful is that being on for every challenge doesn't come at the expense of affordability. Last year, our customer rates were 19% below those in the largest U.S. cities, while bills as in percentage of median income were 20% below the national average. That combination of reliability and affordability is a real point of distinction for Exelon. And it's at the heart of the Exelon promise, our comprehensive plan to deliver exceptional service while keeping bills as low as possible.

We recognize our responsibility to invest before the system is strained and customers feel the consequences. Delaying needed investment doesn't make the need go away. It leads to more outages, greater disruption, lost economic opportunity and higher costs in the future. That's why our focus is clear: Invest responsibly, operate efficiently and deliver on our commitments. We're in a great position, but you know us well. We're always looking for ways to improve and the organizational changes we made in August reflect that mindset. We made these changes with a clear goal get closer to our customers, execute capital more effectively and make decisions faster.

We brought technology and customer operations together, centralized engineering, design and project management and aligned our utility CEOs directly to me. That gives us clear accountability and a more direct line of sight into execution across the company. Many of you have had the opportunity to meet Rob Kleczynski and know what a strong accomplished leader he is. Rob has stepped into the CFO role, and I'm excited for you to hear from him shortly. With this transition, Jean, in her expanded role, leading finance and strategy, is sharpening our focus on where we see the greatest opportunities to create long-term value for our customers, communities and shareholders. I'll say it plainly, I'm energized by this team, and I've never been more confident in our people, our platform or our ability to execute.

We also continue to make strong regulatory progress across our jurisdictions. We've closed out several key dockets, while our remaining rate cases and proceedings continue to move forward as expected. In Pennsylvania, our discussions with the Governor's office, legislators and the commission remain active and constructive. We look forward to participating in the ratemaking working group and helping advance a framework that supports affordability, reliability and continued investment. Rob will cover these developments in more detail, but the takeaway is straightforward. We're making progress on the regulatory outcomes needed to support our investment plan and deliver for our customers.

Our $41.7 billion investment plan remains diversified, durable and defensive with no single project greater than 3% of the total. That plan drives 7.9% rate base growth underpinned by 16% growth in transmission as we invest to strengthen reliability and resiliency, serve new customers and address growing constraints across the grid. And we see a significant runway beyond the current plan with $12 billion to $17 billion of identified transmission opportunities and another $3 billion to $7 billion of potential regulated storage investment. Importantly, these investment opportunities directly address the challenges our customers are facing. The biggest challenge of our -- for our customers face is in the supply and candidly, our progress on regional solutions remains too slow.

The reliability backstop auction has been delayed as PJM works through FERC's concerns around cost allocation, credit requirements and customer protections. Similarly, PJM's IRAS proposal was rejected based on jurisdictional grounds. Neither proposal would have solved the reliability and affordability challenges facing our customers, but both represented important steps forward. We're at a point where our customers simply can't afford continued delays. So we're not waiting for a single regional solution we're advancing practical solutions that states and utilities can pursue today, where policy supports them and customers are appropriately protected. Our proposed 500-megawatt project in New Jersey, is a good example of what's possible with more than $700 million in expected net customer benefits and no customer bill impact during its first 5 years of operation. These are investments tied to real customer needs, and we'll pursue them with the same disciplined risk-adjusted approach our customers and investors expect.

With that, I'll turn it over to Rob.

Robert Kleczynski

Thank you, Calvin, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate the comments, and I'm excited to step into this role. I also want to thank Jean for her partnership through the transition and for the strong foundation she has built I look forward to continuing to work closely with her and to engaging with many of you at EEI next month.

Today, I'll cover the third quarter financial results and outlook, provide an update on our regulatory agenda and the opportunities Calvin just discussed and finish with our balance sheet and financing progress. Starting on Slide 5, we present our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings walk. Exelon earned $0.87 per share in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $0.86 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Including rounding, the $0.01 increase was primarily driven by $0.06 from approved distribution and transmission rates net of depreciation. $0.01 of AFUDC, $0.01 of weather and $0.03 attributable to lower costs in the quarter. This is largely offset by $0.07 related to storm activity and $0.04 in interest and tax expenses. These results are ahead of our expectations outlined in the second quarter call, primarily due to favorable weather and the timing of O&M spend, we continue to deliver customer-focused investments that support top quartile reliability while managing costs and timing within our full year plan.

Based on our performance through the third quarter, we are narrowing our full year operating earnings to $2.85 to $2.91 per share with the goal of delivering at the midpoint or better. Our fourth quarter outlook assumes improved distribution and transmission rates, the absence of onetime items from 2025, fair and reasonable outcomes in our proceedings and normal weather and storm activity, along with the reversal of timing.

Finally, we reaffirm our expectation of annualized adjusted operating earnings growth near the top end of our 5% to 7% range from 2025 through 2029. That outlook is supported by our $41.7 billion capital plan, 7.9% rate base growth, disciplined cost management and a balanced financing plan to maintain strong investment-grade credit metrics.

Turning to Slide 6. We continue to make solid progress across our regulatory agenda. Our approach remains focused on recovering prudent investments that support safe and reliable service while being responsive to customer affordability and the priorities of our jurisdictions. Starting in Maryland, the Public Service Commission issued a final order in Pepco's electric base rate case in August, approving a $50.9 million revenue requirement increase based on a 9.4% ROE and a 50.5% equity ratio with new rates effective August 10.

Also in Maryland, the commission issued its final order in the lessons learned proceeding at the start of October. Recognizing a continued role for forward-looking rate making with greater transparency and customer protections. We look forward to participating in the upcoming forward test year study alongside the commission and stakeholders to help shape the approach that supports affordability and reliability for customers across the state. BGE's electric distribution rate case continues to progress on schedule. On October 16, BGE filed rebuttal testimony, and we look forward to continue to support the prudency of the investments made to maintain a safe and reliable grid for our customers. Evidentiary hearings are scheduled for November ahead of a final order expected in January 2027.

In Delaware, Delmarva Power's electric base rate case remains on track with the final order expected in the third quarter of 2027. As permitted by Delaware law, DPL expects to implement interim rates at 75% of its request in December, subject to refund. Finally, ComEd reached a settlement with all parties in its annual reconciliation proceeding at a delivery adjustment amount of $205 million and agreed upon draft order was filed on October 1. A final order is expected by December 20.

The grid plan also remains on track with administrative law judge filing of a proposed order this month, recommending an approval of the plan with modification in order is expected by December 15. As filed, the plan is expected to deliver $51.5 billion of customer benefits, more than 3x its approximately $15.3 billion cost while supporting reliability, accommodating significant load growth and advancing Illinois energy policy objectives.

Across these proceedings, our approach remains consistent. We are investing to support reliability, resiliency and customer needs while remaining focused on affordability and cost discipline.

Turning to Slide 7. Let me provide some additional detail on the transmission and storage opportunities Kelvin outlined. Importantly, these opportunities are incremental to our current plan, and we will pursue them with the same disciplined risk-adjusted approach we apply across the business. Starting with transmission. As we discussed on our fourth quarter call, we see an additional $12 billion to $17 billion of investment opportunity over the next decade beyond our plan. That opportunity is driven by increasing the reliability and resiliency of aging infrastructure and evolving generation mix growing demand and the need for more flexible grid.

We have also had success in competitive transmission, including approximately $1.2 billion of Exelon investment approved in PJM's RTEP window last year. We will continue to complete an open windows in PJM and other RTOs, and we expect more of those opportunities ahead. Storage is also a growing opportunity that is unique and practical solution to the current supply crisis. With regulated storage, we have certainty that projects get built and control over how -- when and how they're deployed. Customers benefit as well through lower capacity prices in the flow-through of tax benefits to smooth rate impacts. We currently see 1.5 to 3.5 gigawatts or approximately $3 billion to $7 billion of potential storage investment beyond our plan. Across several of our jurisdictions, competitive markets have not delivered the level of new supply that states are seeking. We are well positioned to help close that gap as states evaluate how best to meet their storage and resource adequacy goals. The opportunity we have identified represents only a portion of what states are targeting, leaving room for a range of solutions. We view utility-owned storage as one option alongside competitive development, not a replacement for it.

Today, three of our states, New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware, allow for utility ownership of storage as a resiliency asset. And our project in New Jersey is a good example of the value these solutions can provide. The 500-megawatt project at Atlantic City Electric developed with [ Invenergy ] will represent the single largest battery storage installation in [ PJM ] and is expected to deliver more than $700 million in net benefits to customers. The New Jersey BPU is moving forward with its review, and we expect a final order late in the first quarter of 2027. Taken together, transmission and storage represent practical solutions to address the needs we see across our jurisdictions and meaningful potential upside to our current plan. We'll pursue those opportunities where the customer need is clear, the economics are attractive and the appropriate approvals and recovery mechanisms are in place.

Finally, turning to Slide 8. I'll conclude with an update on our balance sheet, which remains core to our strategy and essential to funding the investments our customers need on cost-effective terms. We have now completed 100% of our planned 2026 debt financing, mitigating our exposure to interest rate volatility for the year. Looking ahead, we continue to take steps to derisk our plan, leveraging our pre-issuance hedging strategy to help reduce our exposure to future rate volatility, limiting the earnings impact of a 50 basis point increase in rates to approximately $0.01 a share.

On equity, we have priced approximately 30% of our $3.4 billion of planned equity needs through 2029 via four contracts under our ATM program, including all $850 million of our 2026 needs, which we expect to settle by December 15. Our credit metric outlook remains strong with average metrics of approximately 14% through 2029, roughly 200 basis points above Moody's downgrade threshold and about 100 basis points above S&P's providing the financial flexibility to fund our capital plan and pursue future opportunities.

We remain confident in our ability to deliver value for our customers and shareholders through disciplined execution, a strong balance sheet and investments that support reliable, resilient and affordable energy.

Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to Calvin for closing remarks.

Calvin Butler

Thank you, Rob. Let me close with why we remain confident in what lies ahead. Exelon sits at the center of the economic growth taking place across our jurisdictions. Reliable, affordable energy infrastructure is essential to serving growing demand, attracting investment, creating jobs and supporting our customers. We bring a diversified platform, a durable $41.7 billion capital plan and a proven record of execution. We're on track for 2026 and continue to expect earnings growth near the top end of our 5% to 7% range through 2029, supported by nearly 8% rate base growth and a strong balance sheet. Importantly, our base plan does not depend on speculative upside. Reliability, resilience and grid modernization support the outlook. Transmission and Storage extend the runway, and we'll add those investments only as approvals and cost recovery are secured. That is the Exelon investment proposition, a durable and diversified base plan, proven execution and meaningful upside all grounded in disciplined investment and customer affordability.

Discipline makes growth credible. We invest when the need is clear, the scope is defined and the recovery path is in place. We have the people, the platform and the discipline to execute today and create lasting value for customers and shareholders.

With that, we're ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.

질의응답

Shahriar Pourreza

So just, I know, obviously, you guys have highlighted some pretty healthy upside to the plan. You talked about the $12 billion to $17 billion for transmission, which I think we've known about, but you put actual numbers on the storage side at $2 billion to $7 billion. I guess at what point does the opportunity start to kind of accrete to the growth rate? I mean, I know, Calvin, at the end, you mentioned that it extends the runway, but you're kind of already at the top end. I guess, can you help frame the inflection point here?

Calvin Butler

Thank you, Shar. And part of this is we've been on this race now for a couple -- 1.5 years or so. I'm looking at Carim Khouzami, who we've put into this role. And we did this, anticipating the need and seeing the opportunity. So I'm going to ask Carim to kind of lean into this discussion with you because the numbers that we put forward our direct example. As they come forward, we put them on paper for you and really lay out the runway. So Karim?

Carim Khouzami

Thanks, Calvin. And good morning, Shar. What I would tell you is I echo what Calvin said and say, the pipelines you see here to kind of illustrate what we see as the upside on the transmission front, these are the awards that we expect to see over the next few years. When it rolls into our plan, it will obviously be when these are constructed and accrete to earnings once they are operational. So for transmission, there's a time line of, call it, 3 to 5 to 7 years, depending on what type of project it is in terms of when it rolls into our plan. On the battery front, it's much shorter duration in terms of when we announced to when we actually have it up in operational. The New Jersey battery, for example, we expect that we will be able to get that once we get approval up and running in just under 3 years. So that will be when it starts to go into rate base and be accretive to earnings. So hopefully, that answers your question.

Shahriar Pourreza

It does, it does. That's helpful, Carim. And then just on the 1.5 to 3.5 gigs of storage opportunity, I guess, how much of that sits in jurisdictions where you already own storage as a reliability or resilient [indiscernible] asset? Or how much needs kind of legislative change first? And I guess, where is the gigawatts actually concentrated? Is this mostly New Jersey and Maryland or Delaware and Illinois are in there, too?

Carim Khouzami

So that pipeline is across all of our states, but I would say a large portion is in those states where we have the ability to own battery storage. One of the things that we're doing, and I think we've said this before is that we obviously see storage as a necessary tool in our space to help address the affordability and reliability crisis that we're facing here, one of the tools. And what we're doing is we're obviously pushing those forward in those states where we are able to own it today, and that's Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, so you can expect to see projects in those states. In our other states, we are obviously advocating for changes in legislation and the ability to own them there as well. But we're not waiting until we get legislation there. We're out there actively talking with developers, looking and evaluating land talking and assessing where we could put these projects because what we do know is we need to move as fast as possible because our customers need it. So one of the things we want to do is make sure that we are ready that once we get the necessary legislation in those states, we'll be prepared with real projects to move forward. It also helps us make -- helps us have those discussions with stakeholders to talk about real projects, what they would look like what the impacts would be. So I would say the 1.5% to 3.5% is across all of our states, but obviously, you'll start to see some sooner in some states than others.

Calvin Butler

Yes. Sure. Go ahead, please. Jean?

Unknown Executive

To reiterate what Carim said is, it's across our states. But if you look at -- but it's based on what the state is saying they would like to procure in that state. And so we just took 25% to 50% of that, just to say, if we capture 25% to 50% of that to Rob's point, we don't need to do it all. We think all solutions should be on the table. If some of that is still by competitive, that's great. We just need more done, and we're ready to step in. And so wanted to take kind of across our states, what are our seats looking for give you a percentage of what might be done by us and just to give you a range of how we are thinking about the potential opportunity here to add to the growth. But importantly, that growth solves the supply crisis that we're facing as well.

Calvin Butler

And Shar, what I wanted to do is just kind of make the finer point that it's not an either/or. It's part of that Exelon promise. We talk about these are the things that we can do right now and we're going out and doing it. And you will see in all of our jurisdictions, we're advocating continually for utility-owned generation. Again, not to replace the competitive market, but to supplement it, and we can't wait for others to do it. So we're stepping up to the plate and keeping the pressure on and the momentum going because we know customers are suffering and the bills are getting too high. And we just can't say it's not our problem. We're stepping up to be a solution-oriented company.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Jefferies.

Paul Zimbardo

Congrats on the new roles, and especially Mike on the retirement.

Calvin Butler

Thanks, Paul.

Paul Zimbardo

The first, I wanted to ask just a more -- I don't know if a new Jean question, but just on strategy. I mean, you mentioned really the lack of progress at PJM and the important FERC proceedings, just how are you thinking about the May PJM auction? Just are you advocating for a price cap price for or other kind of more extensive changes to protect your customers?

Calvin Butler

Yes, Paul. So first, let me just say, I wanted to pause here and then I'm going to look to Colette and Jean, but I may just say, for PJM, I want to give the new leadership and that boresome credit. They continue to try to work to find solutions and be responsive to FERC. I think last night, what came out later in the afternoon or early evening was an example of how they're looking to respond in real time to provide solutions. And as I said in my prepared remarks, it's progress, but it's still slow. And we continue to try to make progress to move this needle forward. So I'll look to Colette and Jean if they have anything to add directly to your point.

Colette Honorable

Thank you, and good morning. As Calvin referenced yesterday, PJM put forward a revised reliability backstop procurement proposal. We are continuing to lean in as we focus on short-, medium- and long-term solutions because it goes to affordability and reliability for our customers. Why did PJM put forward this proposal? PJM sees as we do, and you've heard Jean talk about this in our earnings calls, the need to focus on getting more capacity online because PJM could face approximately an 11.5 gigawatt shortfall by 2030. You know that PJM put forward a proposal, FERC sent them back to the drawing board. And last night, PJM came forward with this proposal focused on three key areas. One is with regard to cost allocation and making sure that the costs associated with large load follows where the costs are, if you will. So more directly tying cost allocation to large load growth. Second, PJM in this most recent proposal reduced the collateral requirement from 50% to 40%. And then finally, the other key element in that proposal was ensuring that exit fees apply to large load serving entities rather than to TOs. So we see PJM working here. What I would say is that we need more work. We appreciate all that they're doing. We need more work, and you're seeing FERC help really refine our focus collectively on getting more infrastructure online. We can all agree on that. and then moving more quickly. We need to work with more of a sense of urgency. And then finally, I would say, helping empower the states to continue leading here, getting states more involved in ensuring resource adequacy and creating processes and supporting processes where states can ensure that the necessary generation that we need is coming online. I'll turn it over to Jean to see if she has anything further.

Calvin Butler

So paul, did that answer your question?

Paul Zimbardo

And just to add on expectations on like the cap and floor extending, not so much the RBP but kind of the base auction.

Colette Honorable

Thank you. We continue to support the use of the cap until such time as we have better processes in place to bring the cost down. What we're seeing for our customers is the costs are too high. the markets are telling us we need more capacity online. So we continue to support the use of the cat in the short term and medium term.

Paul Zimbardo

Okay. Awesome. And then one other if I could sneak it in. On the -- you have a lot of large load and concentrated, I know, of course, are you seeing the hyperscalers, the customers kind of being willing to put up more upfront capital. I know that's been a pretty big trend yet some of the stronger TSAs. Just curious if you're seeing that kind of shifting in a favorable way to reduce equity needs prospectively.

Calvin Butler

In every conversation that we've had with our large -- our developers, they are willing to step up and to meet the need and to continue the development. As a matter of fact, the largest developers lean into our transmission security agreements and appreciate them because it removes a lot of the noise within the system. And that is -- and they understand the that they want to be good community partners. And when you look at our TSAs across, the collateral that we've received has actually increased with a number of projects, and that's exactly what they were intended to do to take out the speculative load show up as good community partners and protect our existing customers from any rate increases because of large load development. So we haven't heard any pushback from it. A matter of fact, just the opposite.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sach.

Carly Davenport

Maybe to start, just wanted to kind of get a sense as you specifically continue to engage with stakeholders in Pennsylvania, if there's any incremental precision that you can provide on what you might be thinking about going in for another PECO rate case? And just kind of what the key considerations are as you think about formulating that filing?

Calvin Butler

Yes, thank you. I'll start, Carly, but then Mike Innocenzo, who is serving as CEO of PECO, I would ask Mike to lean into that discussion. First off, from a PECO rate case. We have been in active discussions with all Pennsylvania stakeholders. That's the Governor's office, the commission as well as our customers and communities on the what and the why. Everyone understands that we will be coming in for another rate case within the planning period, but we are being very responsive to the Governor's letter and the outlines that he's put in place on what he's looking for utilities to do and how we step up. There's not a question that a strong utilities are needed within Pennsylvania to continue the economic development and workforce job creation within that state. And Mike is on the ground every day and having those discussions. And I'll turn it over to Mike.

Michael Innocenzo

I think you said it well -- thanks. I think you said it well, Kevin. The only thing I would just add is I think in our conversations, everybody really recognizes the value that PECO has created through their investments, the value that it's creating in the communities that we serve. The importance of investment in the infrastructure for improving reliability. So there's that acknowledgment that we see. And just recommending that when we come in, we're going to make sure that we come in and they're showing investments that are adding value to the community. In terms of how and when we're still working through that process as part of our key stakeholder engagement addressing each of the points that the governor -- not only the governor has made in this letter, but also working closely with the commission, the ratemaking working group. I think all of those will help provide additional clarity and a clearer path as we move forward.

Calvin Butler

And Carly, what's key about that is that ratemaking working group is in its early stages, and I think it's indicative of how the commission is showing up. in really taking feedback and making sure this is a collaborative stakeholder process and getting all inputs to continue moving Pentylvania forward. Pennsylvania has always been a very strong jurisdiction from a regulatory standpoint, and we intend for it to stay that way by partnering with all the stakeholders in this process.

Carly Davenport

Got it. Okay. I appreciate all that context, super helpful. And then maybe just one on the large load outlook see the TSA share moving higher this quarter. It looks like a slight reduction in the overall large load pipeline versus last quarter? And anything that you would highlight there as a driver. I'm just curious if any inflections in conversations with large load customers that you'd highlight as we near sort of the elections here?

Robert Kleczynski

Hi, Carly, this is Rob. What I would say is that the reduction is in the cluster study from 25 to 23 gigawatts is our process working. It's continuing to see as we work with the developers and looking at the cluster studies, it's just that things fall out for a variety of reasons, whether it's communities, they don't have an end customer. But what we would say is that it's not indicative of anything particular other than our process of going through and seeing -- going through the studies and seeing this work through our process.

Operator

Our last question will come from the line of Nick Amicucci with Evercore ISI.

Nicholas Amicucci

I just wanted to just actually kind of clarify too, just on the 11 gigawatts of high probability loads. Is any of that reflected in the current plan? And kind of what kind of energization schedule underpins that?

Calvin Butler

Yes. I would say a small amount is reflected in the current plan at this point. And as we've always said, until that we know it's high probability, and it's -- we've secured then it will ultimately get factored in.

Unknown Executive

Yes. In terms of the time line, I think that we've said about 10% or so by 28%. And then as you look out through 2034, I think about 3/4 of that 11 gigs will come online. So that sort of speaks to why there's only a portion of the CapEx as you think about limits when the load ramps up. And then in the 12 to 17, I think we've been pretty conservative in the sense that we've only ascribed about $1 billion of continued upside related to high-density load growth. So again, you know us, we're going to give you what's real, what's durable, what's defensible with [indiscernible] to the upside. And I think that, that is indicative of what we've shared here too.

Nicholas Amicucci

Perfect. That makes sense. And then just as we think of the financial flexibility, I mean, obviously, some big numbers on the upside opportunities there. Just how we should be thinking about the financing path on forward?

Calvin Butler

So from a financing standpoint, the way we look at it is we're going to continue to take a balanced approach. And as we've disclosed for the $41.7 billion we have in our plan, some of it is covered with cash from operations, debt, but then as we've always said, for incremental capital opportunities about approximately 40% will be equity.

Carim Khouzami

And one thing I would add. This is Carim. I would just add one thing that on the battery storage projects, the large batteries, we're also pursuing them under build own transfer type arrangements. So much of the capital comes near the back end of the construction period. And so that helps us with kind of shortening the gap between capital being outlaid and before it rolls into rate base.

Operator

And one moment for our next question, which will come from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

Jeremy Tonet

Just one last one, I guess. We're thinking about capital allocation of the plan as we head into the refresh here, just wondering how you think about, I guess, the different states, different backdrops there, where you see more opportunities maybe to shift capital in that direction? And I was wondering, I guess, maybe on ComEd, it seems like there's a little bit of room between yourself and staff and the ALJ recommendations out there. So just wondering how you think about capital allocation at this point?

Robert Kleczynski

Jeremy, this is Rob. What I would say is that, as you've seen historically, our capital has gone up from 8% to 10% over the last roll forwards. And a majority of that has been in the transmission area. In fact, transmission is growing at 16%. And so I think we would expect that trend to continue going forward. And so -- and then with obviously additional upside potentially on the storage as we've talked about.

Calvin Butler

Jeremy, I would tell you, it's where it's going. What I think one of the distinguishing factors about Exelon is the power of our platform, where our ability to shift capital where it's needed and to invest where it's adding the greatest value. We work very closely with all of our stakeholders to understand what they need and where they need it and really work to lean in to how we get that invested. And I use -- Rob, you talked about ComEd, but I would even talk about their efforts around their [indiscernible], and you think about Carim what we're doing now in Jersey with the battery. What we're bringing in, we're investing capital and not impacting our customer bills for 5 years until it's up and running. That's what we're looking to do in each and every step along when we're investing in capital across our jurisdictions.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Calvin Butler for closing remarks.

Calvin Butler

Thank you, Michelle. Let me just begin by saying to everyone, thank you for joining us today. We're delivering on our commitments and building momentum for what's next. I'd be remiss if I didn't thank you for your continued interest in Exelon and look forward to seeing many of you, as Rob stated, later at EEI next month. And with that, Michelle, that concludes our call.

Operator

Thanks to all of our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.