샌디스크(SNDK) 2027 회계연도 1분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: AI 수요가 데이터센터 성장을 견인

샌디스크(NASDAQ: SNDK)는 NAND 출하량 증가, 가격 상승, 데이터 센터의 급격한 성장에 힘입어 2027 회계연도 1분기 매출 110억 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 AI 인프라 수요가 추론 워크로드 전반에서 NAND의 역할을 확대하고 있으며, 장기 NBM(신규 비즈니스 모델) 계약이 수요 가시성을 개선하고 있다고 밝혔다.

핵심 요약

• 매출은 110억 달러를 기록하며 전 분기 대비 23%, 전년 동기 대비 378% 증가했다. 경영진은 전 분기 대비 증가분의 약 60%는 출하량 증가, 40%는 가격 상승에 기인한 것이라고 설명했다.
• 데이터 센터 매출은 기업용 SSD 수요, BiCS 8 제품, 미국 3대 하이퍼스케일러를 포함한 고객 관계에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 61% 증가한 48억 달러를 기록했다.
• 비GAAP 기준 총마진은 85.1%, 비GAAP 영업이익률은 80.4%를 기록했으며, 비GAAP EPS(주당순이익)는 49.51달러로 증가했다.
• 조정 잉여현금흐름은 총 57억 달러로 매출의 약 52%에 해당했다. 샌디스크는 해당 분기 동안 약 320만 주를 50억 달러에 자사주 매입했다.
• 2027 회계연도 2분기 가이던스로 경영진은 주식분할 전 기준 매출 122억 달러~126억 달러, 비GAAP EPS 55달러~57달러를 제시했다.
• 샌디스크는 2027 회계연도 비트 물량의 약 50%와 2028 회계연도 비트 물량의 약 3분의 2가 신규 비즈니스 모델(NBM) 계약으로 확보되었다고 밝혔다. 회사의 NBM 파이프라인은 2020년대 말까지 공급 가능 수량을 초과한다.

핵심 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

AI 인프라가 데이터 센터 성장을 견인

경영진은 데이터 센터를 샌디스크의 핵심 성장 동력으로 묘사했다. 회사는 2020년대 초 약 20%였던 NAND 산업 비트 출하량 중 데이터 센터 비중이 현재 약 절반을 차지하는 것으로 추산하고 있다.

샌디스크의 데이터 센터 포트폴리오에는 저지연·고내구성 워크로드를 위한 TLC 제품과 데이터 레이크, 벡터 데이터베이스 등 대용량 집중형 애플리케이션을 위한 QLC 제품이 포함되어 있다. 경영진은 고객들이 추가적인 사용 사례에서 QLC에 대해 다시 관심을 보이고 있으나, 현재 데이터 센터 비중은 약 70% TLC, 30% QLC 수준을 유지하고 있다고 전했다.

회사는 또한 KV 캐시, 체크포인팅, 추론 오케스트레이션, 모델 학습 워크플로우에서 NAND 사용이 증가하고 있다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 KV 캐시가 2020년대 말까지 AI 데이터 센터 플래시 시장의 약 3분의 1을 차지할 것으로 예상하면서도, 이는 장기적 관점임을 강조했다.

BiCS 로드맵 및 HBF 개발

BiCS 8은 샌디스크의 현재 양산 포트폴리오의 기반으로 유지되고 있다. BiCS 9는 BiCS 8 셀 어레이에 차세대 CMOS를 결합하여 인터페이스 성능을 향상시키며, BiCS 10은 TLC 및 QLC 전반에서 더 높은 성능과 밀도를 목표로 한다.

샌디스크는 첫 고대역폭 플래시(HBF) 메모리 다이의 테이프아웃을 완료하고 제조를 진행 중이다. 경영진은 HBF가 추론 워크로드를 위해 더 큰 용량과 함께 HBM급 읽기 대역폭을 제공하도록 설계되었다고 언급했다. 회사는 내년에 초기 제품 샘플을 제공할 계획대로 진행 중이지만, HBF는 장기 재무 모델에 포함되어 있지 않다.

엣지 및 컨슈머 동향

엣지 매출은 전 분기 대비 7% 증가한 58억 달러를 기록했다. 프리미엄 및 메인스트림 수요는 견조하게 유지된 반면, 보급형 시장은 위축되었다. 전장 및 IoT 분야가 강력한 성장을 견인했으며, 경영진은 전장 분야를 엣지 부문 내에서 잠재적으로 중요한 장기 시장으로 평가하고 있다.

컨슈머 매출은 가격 상승에 따른 시장 조정으로 전 분기 대비 29% 감소한 3억 9,700만 달러를 기록했다. 그럼에도 경영진은 컨슈머 사업을 최종 사용자의 수요 신호를 직접 제공하는 전략적 채널로 규정했다.

장기 고객 계약

샌디스크는 지난 실적 발표 전 2건의 NBM 계약을 추가로 체결했으며, 기존 및 잠재적 파트너들과 지속적으로 논의를 진행하고 있다. 경영진은 현재 NBM 계약의 95%가 투자적격 등급 기업과 체결되었다고 밝혔다.

2027 회계연도 비트 물량의 약 50%와 2028 회계연도 비트 물량의 3분의 2가 NBM 계약하에 있다. 샌디스크는 2028 회계연도 비중이 완만하게 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있으나, 경영진은 공급 할당 시 선별적인 접근을 유지할 것이라고 덧붙였다.

경영진 가이던스

총마진 전망에는 동일 조건 제품의 완만한 가격 인상이 포함되어 있다. 경영진은 2027 회계연도 내내 가격이 완만하게 상승할 것으로 예상하며, 출하량과 가격 상승 모두 2분기 성장에 기여할 것으로 전망하고 있다.

2027 민간연도에 경영진은 데이터 센터가 NAND 시장의 55% 이상을 차지하고, 비트 수요는 2026년 100% 이상의 성장에 이어 전년 대비 약 40% 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

샌디스크는 2027 회계연도 잔여 기간 동안 총 자본지출이 증가하여 매출의 한 자릿수 중반 퍼센트 수준을 기록할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 회사는 계속해서 10%대 중후반의 비트 성장을 목표로 하고 있으며, 현재 BiCS 공정 노드 전환을 가속화할 계획은 없다.

이사회는 1주를 8주로 나누는 주식분할을 승인했다. 추가 주식은 11월 19일에 배정될 예정이며, 분할 조정된 주식의 거래는 11월 20일에 시작될 예정이다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

• 가격 상승이 수요에 영향을 미치면서 컨슈머 매출은 전 분기 대비 29% 감소했다.
• 경영진은 2027 민간연도 PC 및 스마트폰 출하량이 소폭 감소할 것으로 예상하고 있으나, 기기당 탑재량 증가가 엑사바이트 성장을 뒷받침할 것으로 전망하고 있다.
• 샌디스크의 회계연도 3분기는 역사적으로 전 분기 대비 가장 부진한 시기다. 경영진은 회계연도 2분기에서 3분기로 넘어가는 시기에 대해 보수적인 전 분기 대비 성장 가정을 적용할 것을 조언했으나 공식적인 3분기 가이던스는 제공하지 않았다.
• 단기 공급 할당은 약 120일의 제조 리드타임으로 인해 제한적이다. TLC 및 QLC 전반의 제품 믹스 역시 최종 시장 간 공급 이동 속도를 제한한다.
• HBF는 아직 초기 개발 단계에 있다. 시장 규모, 고객 도입, 사용 사례 및 매출 발생 시점은 제품 샘플링 및 통합 결과에 달려 있다.
• NAND를 SLC 모드로 구동하는 것에 대한 고객의 관심은 잠재적 시장을 확대할 수 있으나 유효 비트 공급을 줄일 수 있다. 경영진은 도입 여부를 예측하기에는 아직 이르다고 밝혔다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

데이터 센터 침투율: 경영진은 샌디스크의 데이터 센터 확장이 BiCS 8 기술, 입증된 TLC 제품, Stargate QLC 제품의 본격 생산, NBM 파트너십을 통한 밀접한 엔지니어링 협력 덕분이라고 밝혔다. 회사는 2027 민간연도까지 데이터 센터 비중이 증가할 것으로 예상하지만 시장 점유율 목표 제시는 사양했다.

NBM 수요 가시성: 기존 고객들은 추가 공급을 요청하고 있으며 신규 고객들은 계약 체결을 모색하고 있다. 경영진은 고객들이 AI 인프라에 필요한 NAND 양을 전반적으로 과소평가했다고 말하면서도, 샌디스크는 한정된 공급 가능 수량을 고려해 이러한 요청들의 균형을 맞출 것이라고 밝혔다.

공급 및 자본지출: NBM 파이프라인에서 2030년까지 수요가 공급을 초과함에도 불구하고, 경영진은 10%대 중후반의 비트 성장 계획을 변경하지 않았다. 향후 모든 공급 확장은 협상 완료, 고객 확약 및 조율된 투자 계획이 전제되어야 한다.

SLC 기회: 경영진은 향후 SLC 수요가 TLC나 QLC의 수요를 잠식하기보다는 추가적인 수요가 될 것이라고 밝혔다. NAND 셀은 SLC, MLC 또는 TLC 모드로 작동할 수 있지만, 생산을 SLC로 전환할 경우 상당한 용량 손실이 발생하므로 현재 고객 평가 단계에 있다.

자본 배분: 샌디스크는 무부채 상태를 유지하고 HBF, 3D 매트릭스 메모리, BiCS 로드맵을 포함한 기술에 투자하며, 잉여현금의 100%를 주주에게 환원할 계획이다. 회사는 지난 2개 분기 동안 기존 발행주식수의 약 4%에 해당하는 600만 주를 자사주 매입했다.

실적 발표 전문

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전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to SanDisk's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please also note, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ivan Donaldson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ivan Donaldson

Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current assumptions and expectations, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include expectations for our technology and product portfolio, our business plans and performance, our capital allocation priorities, market trends and opportunities and our financial results. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

We will also make references to non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the written materials posted in the Investor Relations section of our website.

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

David V. Goeckeler

Thanks, Ivan. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining SanDisk's Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Earnings Call. We began fiscal year 2027 with another strong quarter, creating value for customers and shareholders and delivering results above guidance.

Our strategy is working and our execution is delivering strong results. Revenue for the quarter was $11 billion. Non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1% and non-GAAP earnings per share was $49.51. We generated $5.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow and returned $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases. Our confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business is grounded in 3 enduring strengths: technology leadership, deep customer partnerships and disciplined financial management.

These strengths are reinforced by a structural increase in NAND demand driven particularly by AI and by customer signals now extending beyond fiscal year 2030 through our new business model, our NBM partnerships. Together, they position us to invest with confidence in our technology road map, strengthen and expand our customer relationships, and deliver growing and durable free cash flow while returning capital to shareholders. It starts with our technology leadership. BiCS 8 is the backbone of our current production portfolio in the industry benchmark for performance and density across TLC and QLC. BiCS 8 introduced our CMOS directly bonded to Array, our CBA architecture, enabling the performance required by AI data center customers in establishing the framework for future generations. BiCS 9 pairs the proven BiCS 8 cell array with next-generation CMOS significantly increasing interface performance while retaining a mature memory architecture. BiCS 10 10 advances the full node architecture across both TLC and QLC with a 1 terabit TLC die designed for performance-intensive workloads in a 2-terabit QLC die delivering industry-leading density in twice the read and right bandwidth of BiCS 8. Together, these technologies will extend the BiCS 8 foundation to meet the evolving performance and capacity requirements of next-generation infrastructure. Beyond the core road map, high-bandwidth flash, or HBF, reached an important milestone in the fiscal first quarter with the tape-out of our first HBF memory die with fabrication now underway.

As we outlined at Investor Day, HBF is a new memory architecture for inference that targets HBM class read bandwidth with substantially greater capacity to support larger models, longer context lengths and growing KV caches. It is designed to complement HBM by bringing NAND class capacity closer to the processor, and we remain on track to deliver samples of our first HBF-based products next calendar year. HBF remains a future innovation and is not included in the long-term financial model we introduced at Investor Day. As customer adoption, product requirements and manufacturing readiness become more clearly defined, we expect to provide further perspective on the market opportunity. Customers recognize the strength of our innovation and increasingly view SanDisk as an important partner in achieving their growth objectives.

Through our NBMs, we continue to evolve customer relationships into long-term partnerships grounded in innovation, collaboration and shared commitment. Our most recent customers' engagements with the world's leading AI companies indicate further upside in demand for our technology. Our market-leading technology product portfolio and customer partnerships are the backbone of our strong financial position, which allows us to reinvest to maintain our technology leadership and expand supply through R&D-focused CapEx. Each of these strengths is reinforced by tailwinds from AI, the need for scalable memory and storage is expanding as inference workloads grow, making NAND increasingly integral to AI infrastructure. During inference, each generated token must reference the context that precedes it, creating a growing KV cache that serves as the model's working memory. Longer prompts, more complex reasoning, multimodal inputs and persistent user context materially increase these storage requirements. HBM and DRAM support the highest performance tier, while flash provides the capacity required to retain broader context efficiently and avoid costly recomputation. We believe this is a secular dynamic that is expanding NAND's role across the AI stack. The memory hierarchy defines the role of each NAND architecture.

TLC provides the lower latency, higher rate performance and greater endurance required for active data sets, check-pointing and latency-sensitive KV cache workloads. In our AI lab comparison, we presented at Investor Day, systems utilizing SSD delivered approximately 3x the token throughput while using approximately 75% less energy than comparable systems relying on volatile memory alone.

QLC further increases storage density for capacity-intensive applications, such as data lakes, vector databases that power AI search and retrieval repositories. Between these layers, a growing persistent context tiers, establishes data to be retained and recalled rather than regenerated. As inference costs declined, we expect the adoption and usage to expand, supporting our view that KV cache will represent approximately 1/3 of the AI data center flash market by the end of the decade and that the AI data center opportunity will approach the size of the NAND industry today.

Turning to our end markets. In data center, our portfolio addresses the full range of AI infrastructure requirements from performance-intensive enterprise SSD to high-capacity platforms. Demand remains strong and continues to grow, and we estimate that data center has expanded from approximately 20% of industry bids early in a decade to roughly half of the industry bits today. This structural shift in customer mix is reshaping industry economics and is central to the transformation underway at Sandisk. This quarter, data center again delivered strong growth and continued to outpace the broader market as we allocated more supply to address the growing demand from this end market. Edge is a large and strategically important market for Sandisk, spanning smartphones, PCs, automotive tablets and an expanding range of physical AI applications.

Automotive is becoming an increasingly important growth vector in our Edge business and a meaningful long-term growth opportunity. We have deepening engagements with leading customers reinforcing our confidence that automotive can become one of the largest markets within edge over time. Our consumer business remains a differentiated strategic asset, combining direct brand engagement with hundreds of millions of end users and broad shelf presence across the world's leading channel partners. The consumer end market provides a durable foundation for our business. while its direct connection to the market informs product development and provides early insight into shifts in end user demand.

Taken together, these results reinforce the durability of the model we outlined at our Investor Day. We have established a strong level of profitability and cash generation, and our focus from here is consistent execution across the portfolio.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Luis for a detailed update on our business and outlook.

Luis Visoso

Thank you, David. We're executing these strategies and plans that we outlined at the Investor Day, and we're delivering attractive financial results. In the first quarter, we closed 2 NBMs because. Both deals closed before our fourth quarter earnings call, we announced these partnerships on that call. We're in active conversations with existing [indiscernible] customers that are evaluating extending existing agreements and with new customers that are evaluating new NBMs. These long-term partnerships provide greater visibility into demand and financial performance, supporting a more durable financial model.

We will remain patient and disciplined in selecting the right long-term partners as we define the optimal percentage of our bids that we allocate to NBMs, which is slightly higher than our current levels. Revenue for the first quarter was $11 billion, up 23% sequentially and 378% year-over-year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. Both volume growth and higher pricing contributed to revenue growth, with approximately 60% of the increase attributable to volume growth and 40% to higher pricing. Data center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% sequentially, outpacing estimated market growth for the quarter. Our leading products and strong customer partnerships including 3 U.S. hyperscalers underpin our continued expansion in this fast-growing end market. Edge revenue was $5.8 billion, up 7% sequentially, reflecting resilience in premium and mainstream markets, partially offset by contraction at the lower end. Within Edge, we saw strong growth with automotive and IoT customers.

Consumer revenue was $397 million, down 29% sequentially as the market adjusts to higher pricing. We remain committed to serving all 3 end markets with our diversified portfolio that optimizes our performance over time. Non-GAAP gross margin for the first quarter was 85.1%, up from 84.6% in the prior quarter, driven by higher volumes and pricing. This compares favorably with our guidance range of 83% to 85%. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $513 million, representing 4.7% of revenue.

Non-GAAP operating margin was 80.4% compared to 79.2% in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $49.51, up from $39.25 in the prior quarter and $1.22 in the same quarter of the prior fiscal year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $44 to $46. We closed the quarter with 154 million diluted shares outstanding.

Key GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation includes $91 million in stock-based compensation, representing 0.8% of revenue and $513 million gain on equity securities primarily attributable to our investment in Nanya. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares of our common stock for $5 billion. Over the past 2 quarters, we have repurchased 6 million shares, representing approximately 4% of our total shares outstanding. Our repurchases reflect our conviction in the long-term value of the business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We continue to invest appropriately in the business while returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders.

Moving on to free cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $6.4 billion. Gross capital expenditures totaled $378 million, representing 3.4% of revenue. We expect gross capital spending to increase during the balance of the year and represent mid-single-digit percentage of revenue for fiscal year 2027. During the quarter, we generated $5.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow, representing approximately 52% margin. We closed the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt.

Moving on to guidance. Our confidence in the long-term health of the market is reinforced by the structural growth of our -- of the AI infrastructure and the expanding role of NAND across inference workloads. Before turning to our second quarter outlook, I will announce that the Sandisk Board of Directors has approved an [ 8-for-1 ] stock split of the company's common stock. The additional shares are expected to be distributed on November 19 and trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to begin on November 20.

For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion. We expect non-GAAP gross margin between 84.5% and 85.5%, which includes modest like-for-like price increases. On a pre-split basis, we expect non-GAAP EPS between $55 and $57, assuming 151 million fully diluted shares.

On an 8-for-1 split-adjusted basis, this equates to non-GAAP EPS between $6.88 and $7.13 and assuming approximately 1,208 million fully diluted shares. For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data center is expected to be, again, the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market, with bit demand growing about 40% year-on-year enabled by higher AI-driven capital spending. This is after more than doubling in 2026. Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply throughout the end of the decade. With that, let me turn the call back to David.

David V. Goeckeler

Thank you, Luis. We continue to execute on the strategy we outlined at Investor Day, reinforcing our confidence in Sandisk's long-term trajectory. Our technology leadership, deep customer partnership and disciplined financial management, supported by a structural increase in NAND demand driven by AI, position us to serve our customers, deliver growing and durable free cash flow and return capital to shareholders. Over the past year, we have transformed the earnings and cash generation power of the business and established a strong foundation for durable performance. We remain focused on disciplined execution, sustained value creation and delivering against our long-term financial objectives.

With that, Ivan, let's open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question today comes from Ben Reitzes from Melius.

질의응답

Benjamin Reitzes

I appreciate it, Dave. I wanted to ask two, if I could. One on the NBMs. You signed 2 before the last call. So I'm just wondering if we're going to have a lot more of them because it seems like you're already capacity constrained to agree to them. And then do you mind reminding us what the bits under contract will be in the next few years, if that's changed at all? And then I have a quick follow-up.

David V. Goeckeler

Yes, I'll make a few -- thanks, Ben. We appreciate it. Always good to hear from you. So I'll make a few comments on NBMs and then Luis will fill in. Yes, we've got a very strong pipeline of NBMs and you kind of hit on all the issues there. As the portfolio gets more subscribed and more committed and we're at half the bits for this fiscal year and 2/3s for next year. It's a fitting exercise to get the next tranche of them in there, but the pipeline is very strong. I think we said last quarter -- I know we said last quarter that we're going to be patient and consider the next set of customers. And that's exactly what we're doing.

And we expect more of them over the next several months, several quarters as we continue to allocate the rest of the portfolio. So the pipeline is very strong and growing, quite frankly, and it's become the predominant way we deal with our customers. And I expect that the percent of the portfolio committed to continue to go up over the next couple of quarters. So Luis?

Luis Visoso

Yes. I mean just a few things I think David covered most of it. We feel very good about where we are with NBMs. As you know, we've been very selective, very strategic in who we chose to sign these deals with. We're looking at the companies we have and today, 95% of our NBMs -- sorry, with companies that are investment grade, and they generated about $130 billion in operating cash flow. So we feel that we've made the right choices. And as David just mentioned, we'll continue to be patient.

We'll continue to be selective and the pipeline is terrific. So you should expect us to make -- continue to make progress. I think in my prepared remarks, I said that we expect the bids to continue to grow we had shared with you that about 50% of our bids are under NBM for '27 and about 2/3s for '28, and we expect that number to continue to go a little bit higher from the 2/3s.

David V. Goeckeler

Ben, I'll just make one more comment. You got to ask two questions. I'll make 2 comments. We're also balancing customers that are coming back for more like that is a real thing. And in general, we're hearing from our customers that they have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure. And so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round, and then balancing that against bringing new customers into the portfolio. So there's a lot to sort out, and these are big complicated agreements. But we feel very, very good about where the pipeline is, where the portfolio is at, the products are resonating. And we'll continue to update you as we build out the portfolio of NBMs over the next couple of quarters.

Benjamin Reitzes

Okay. Great. And just a quick follow-up. You may have seen that Intel guided down for the next quarter due to PCs and it really the impact of the memory is more than anybody thought, at least with their guidance, I don't know about anybody else. Just wondering if you are seeing NBM interest from those in the PC market more and how you -- if there's -- if that market, with regard to some of the device makers, is something that will become an NBM or is actually now getting more attractive because they're willing to pay more. How should we think about that as it looks like they're starved for product and missing numbers in that segment?

Luis Visoso

Yes. I mean, Ben, we have -- we cannot talk about specific customers. What we've said in the past is we do have NBMs in the data center business. It's data center-centric. But we also have customers on the edge. And we've offered this construct to any customer that wants it and start a process where it makes sense. So we're not trying to restrict it from any customer. We're open for business.

David V. Goeckeler

So Ben, the other thing I'll say to this. I mean, we are looking at this in our own reviews. We know that units were down this year. They're going to be slightly down next year, low single digits. I mean these 2 calendar quarters right now are really the trough of the year-over-year compares where they're the most negative. And so this is where we're feeling the biggest amount of change in that market on a unit basis on a year-over-year basis. All that said, we expect the PC exabytes to grow next year. And in fact, we think our internal models are every segment in the NAND market, PCs, smartphones, data center, will all show positive growth next year because of content per device continues to go up as part of that is mixing to premium. So there's no doubt there's been a market adjustment.

In many ways, we're in -- as I said, from a unit basis, we're in the teeth of that on a year-over-year basis, but we see improvement from here.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore

Great. It seems like the underlying story here in addition to just how good the market is, is your presence in data center, you're up almost 20x year-on-year, up 61% sequentially. Can you talk about -- obviously, the market's good but it seems like your participation is also a lot better. Is that because of BiCS 8? Is that just because the market is different? Just what is it that's allowing you to get to those levels of penetration. And if data centers half of bits at some point, would you get to that in your own mix as well?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes, Joe. So thanks for the comment. We feel very good about where we're at in Data Center. I mean anything where you see the kind of numbers we posted year-over-year is a combination of things. I mean it starts with the fundamental NAND node. BiCS 8 is a very good node. CBA gives you very clean CMOs, which is very good interface speeds, all those kinds of things. We built the right products. We've had a TLC product in the market for several years now. It was just a couple of quarters ago that we started selling our QLC product for revenue and that we expected a faster ramp and that's happening. So we got the right product at the right time based on the right technology.

And then over the last quarter or so, there's been a lot more refinement of the AI inference architecture is what I would say. When I look at the market and we kind of decompose it internally, customers are just getting more refined about how they're using NAND, where they're using TLC, where they're using QLC all different phases from KV cash to staging to fast data lakes and all the sub parts of those markets, inference and agent orchestration, model pretraining model post training, there's just a general. We're seeing NAND be applied in a more, I would say, nuanced way.

In the past, QLC is being used in the right places and you're even seeing QLC sub customers even move into like KV cache where it can be supported. On the other side of the spectrum, we're seeing SLC being pulled into the architecture. It's not really in sales yet. It's more in architectural conversations. And it's not a performance type of conversation. It's more endurance think like during agenetic workloads, the amount of endurance required. And in that place, it's kind of where can we substitute NAND for DRAM. And we think those kind of architectures will be very sticky over time.

Once you make that transition, you're going to stick with it given the price differential. So we see all of these things working together and I think these NBM set us up for these very deep and strategic level conversations with our customers about how they're using our product deep discussions with our engineers about how they could use our product to solve different use cases and all of that is leading to a tremendous pull on our portfolio. And like I said, our biggest customers, we've already signed one second tranche of an NBM and we're in discussions in others. So the whole setup is very strong, and we feel good about it, and we appreciate your recognition of the performance on a year-over-year basis. It really is quite outstanding.

Joseph Moore

That is surprising. And where do you think the mix goes long term in terms of good [ overhead ]?

David V. Goeckeler

So yes, we're working hard to catch up to have our portfolio mix equal what the market bits are. And we're going to continue to make progress throughout calendar year '27. We'll see if we actually catch up by the end of the quarter, but I think we'll get to a substantially higher number on mix than we are if we look back at calendar year -- our fiscal year '26. We'll continue to make progress here.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Newman from Bernstein.

Mark Newman

On the -- if I could just first talk about price and volume in the guidance. You talked about in the fiscal Q1 that you just reported, I think you said 60% of the revenue growth from volume and 40% from pricing. Baked into your guide, I mean, how do you expect that mix to progress? Any comments on pricing? I appreciate that you've got a very high portion of volumes on these NBMs but still wanted to get some clarity on pricing, I think there's a comment that modest improvements in pricing in Q2, any further clarity on that? And then I have a follow-on question on HBF and some of the new NAND technologies as well.

Luis Visoso

Yes. So let me take the first one. Yes, you're right. We reported -- about 60% of the revenue growth came from volume and 40% from pricing in Q1 roughly and we do expect both to contribute in the next quarter. We normally don't break this mark into its pieces. But we do expect some modest pricing as we put in our prepared remarks. So we do expect both to contribute during the quarter, and we expect pricing to continue to increase modestly throughout the year.

Mark Newman

That's helpful. Fair enough. And follow-up question is on HBS and other new NAND technologies in the data center. So there was a comment about some progress on HBF, which was great to hear. But I wondered if there's any more comments on progress and discussions with partners and customers, anything there. And the other thing, Dave, you mentioned about some of the other new NAND technologies in the data center storage next and then there's also the CMX context memory. Just what's your view on all these types of new NAND tiers in the data center, do you think they all win? Just any kind of comments on the interplay of all these and the roles each and how Sandisk plays in and the timing would be really appreciated.

David V. Goeckeler

Sure. So Mark, no the conversations with potential customers on HBF are robust and continue to be -- we'll continue to have those conversations as we go into putting product samples in their hands that they can start to use and understand how it's going to fit in their system. So we'll continue to update on that, but it's kind of an always on conversation.

Your second question. I think this is like very, very healthy for where AI inference is, which is, as it scales out, it needs to be -- the architecture is just being relentlessly refined for economics and that's a very good thing because it's going to make -- it's going to scale, the more economic it is, the better -- and that's pulling NAND into more parts of the architecture because NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology, right? So we're seeing -- like I said, we're seeing -- if you would go back a couple of years ago, it was all about going for more density again, going from TLC to QLC, we're still doing that, right?

That's still a big part of the strategy. But now there's some of it even going in the other direction. How do I use -- how do I get more endurance in specific parts of the architecture is the endurance in the performance I get out of NAND good enough to solve the use case at a part of the architecture, where I can use it over competing technologies that may be significantly more expensive and difficult to acquire.

So I would say this is a very, very dynamic discussion. There's a lot of ideas on the table. I think there should be a lot of ideas on the table. I think they'll all be pursued. And I think that the most important thing is to stay close to the people that are spending the money to scale the infrastructure. Because in the end, they'll make the decisions of what's right for them based on the use cases they're trying to solve at scale and where they're putting all this money behind it. And we're deeply -- we're deeply engaged in those conversations, and I expect them to continue to be very robust to have a lot of different ideas about how we could structure our technology in different directions to fit more and more use cases and building a product, it's always the same thing.

I want the right technology at the right time and the right intensity at the right cost and really not anything less or anything more. And that's what building a product is all about because you can deliver it at the right price and then you can get the right return on it. So that process is full on in AI architecture working with our customers.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Gibson from MST Financial.

David Gibson

Just wondering -- thanks very much for your time today. Just a quick one. Just wondering whether you're looking to accelerate the BiCS transition from 8 to 9, 10 and so forth as a way to accelerate the bit growth in the short term and then satisfy some of that very strong customer demand.

David V. Goeckeler

No. I mean we're committed to the bit growth we talked about, mid to high teens. Those nodal transitions require a lot of planning and tool purchases and where lines are set up. So we're still -- we have that fab plan set up for the kind of bit growth we've been talking about for a long time. So no plans to change that at this point.

David Gibson

Okay. And just 1 follow-up. You talked about earlier about allocating more supply to the data center in Q1. Are there any limits to increasingly allocating your bits to data center?

David V. Goeckeler

Well, I mean it's -- that's very -- in some ways, yes. I mean out of the fab, you come out with a certain mix of TLC, QLC, certain dynamics, all these kinds of issues. So it's a constant fitting exercise of getting the right product to the right customer and there's a lot of magic that goes on in the organization and Luis' organization is a big part of that working with our sales teams of what is the available inventory, what's coming out of the fab, what's the mix? And where is it all going to go? Do you want to say a little bit more about that.

Luis Visoso

Yes, I think the only thing I would add, obviously, changes depending on the time frame we're looking at over the short term, it's almost impossible to do anything. It takes 120 days or so to produce a wafer. But obviously, as you look further out, there are more degrees of freedom.

Operator

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse from Cantor Fitzgerald.

Christopher Muse

A question on the comment around your NBM pipeline exceeding supply through the end of the decade in the slide deck. I guess can you elaborate on that? And how is that changing kind of your thought process around what bit supply will look like for the industry over the next handful of years? And how are you adjusting, if at all, your CapEx plans. I know you talked about mid-single digits, which implies roughly $2.5 billion to $3 billion gross CapEx, fairly low kind of number. So I would love to hear kind of your thoughts on how the visibility is impacting your thoughts around bit growth and supply.

David V. Goeckeler

Well, I mean, I think my first thing I say about, C.J., is the process is working. I mean it was only 2 or 3 quarters ago, we talked about even instituting this kind of business model, and we had some customers that were like-minded, and we made some very good progress. And here we are a couple of quarters later, and it's -- we talked about this after our Investor Day, we had customers coming to us offering NBMs. And that now becomes -- it's not the only way we do business.

There's lots of customers with lots of different volume levels and different products, and we want to meet our customers where they are. There's no doubt about that. But it's very good to see that we have a robust pipeline now through the end -- through 2030, and we're even getting beyond that, as we talked about of customers that are really willing to give us their demand signals and financial commitments. And to the question earlier, those kinds of things will allow us -- if we choose to eventually start changing supply and demand and all those kinds of things, but we're just not there yet, right?

We got to go through negotiations on all of those.

We've got to get commitments. We've got to get everything all aligned. But I would say the process is working well. We're very happy with where it's at, and it gives us a lot more visibility into how we plan. But the process is still underway, right? It's still underway. And we'll -- as I said, we'll continue to update you over the next couple of quarters as we make progress.

Christopher Muse

Just a quick follow-up for Luis. On these contracts and considering some have deposits, are you able to use those deposits for buybacks? Or is that cash restricted?

Luis Visoso

Yes. In theory, we could, C.J. But as we explained at Analyst Day, a vast majority are financial guarantees, which are held by third-party financial institutions. So they are not in my balance sheet. The only thing that's in the balance sheet is prepayments and we -- that's by far the smallest amount. But there is no legal restriction on that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas.

Karl Ackerman

It's encouraging to see increasing NAND content per XPU and AI servers to support at cash demand, which I think compares to reductions in memory content and some server SKUs. But Dave, could you discuss how you see enterprise SSD content per server progressing in 2027 in the context of this agentic AI proliferation because it's certainly becoming a larger portion of your portfolio?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes. That's a big question, Karl. I mean, look, what we're doing is there's no doubt in inference agent orchestration that our product is tied to kind of CPU demand in -- for those type of applications. I mean we know at a pretty granular level the amount of demand that we expect per CPU, something 60 to 90 gigabytes per CPU is what we see in those kind of applications. I haven't run the math against what the server TAM is and kind of what the elasticity is between those two, but we can follow up on that. But as I said earlier, we continue to see more NAND being pulled into the inference architecture in all parts of the architecture and in very different ways, right? TLC, QLC and as I said earlier, now, people looking for high endurance solutions that will fit -- work -- fit parts of the workload where they don't need to use DRAM and they can use that type of NAND. So it's all very encouraging, and we'll continue to stay close. But we'll do some work on the 2 TAM analysis and what the trade-offs are between them.

Karl Ackerman

Sure. If I may, a quick follow-up. Do you have an updated view or progress on your goal for enterprise SSD share? I mean can you achieve perhaps a low to mid-teens share in 2027 because you're seeing quite success right now?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes. We're probably not -- I mean, in the past, many years ago, we put some share goals out there, and I've tried very hard not to put share goals out there because sometimes it leads to kind of perverse choices in the portfolio. We want to maximize the value of the portfolio across all time horizons, near term, midterm, long term. So we want to keep some balance into it. Clearly, we're going to mix higher into data center. I mean you see that. We talked about that earlier. I think 17x growth year-over-year. You don't see a 17x very often in a business at this scale. And as I said, I expect that to go higher as we go through '27. In the balance point, in some ways, will be end will depend quarter-by-quarter or what we see and then what NBMs we signed, right? Those will give us a big -- a lot of visibility over the next several years where we see that mix going. So it's going higher, but I'm not going to put a specific target out there.

Operator

Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho.

Vijay Rakesh

Just a -- great quarter and guide. Just a quick question. As you look at data center, [ 2026 ] looks like you mentioned demand bit growth, which is massive. As you look at this BiCS 8, BiCS 9, BiCS 10 transition, does that help you drive some bits to meet that demand? How is the supply on that side? I guess and I have a quick follow-up.

David V. Goeckeler

Look, I mean, BiCS 8, BiCS 9. BiCS 9 is a big part of a data center strategy of being able to get faster interface fees with the same cell and kind of what CBA gives us that flexibility. We talked about that at Investor Day. So in that sense, yes, those are big parts of the strategy. There's no doubt about it. So as I said earlier, it's about getting the right product to the right customer and the TLC product has been performing very, very well for quite some time now, and now we're seeing the ramping of QLC and we'll see some ramp of BiCS 9, but BiCS 10 is still a little ways out, right? I mean we announced BiCS 10, we're still ramping BiCS 8. So we've got a ways to go before we get out to some of those future BiCS nodes.

Vijay Rakesh

Got it. And then on the endurance side, as you mentioned, some of your peers talking about SLC NAND out there. Any thoughts how that plays out next year? Obviously, that could tighten up the NAND market as well in addition to what you're seeing in just overall demand growth, I guess?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes, I think it's a little early to have a very strong view on that, right? We are talking to some customers that are giving us some signals of demand for SLC. I mean, clearly, you start making SLC and you're going to take away. There's a clear trade ratio of 3:1 for 1, whether it's TLC or QLC. So it will impact the overall supply of the market depending on how much SLC is used and how much really gets deployed. But it's a little early to put a specific forecast on it right now.

What I would say, it's -- it's an architectural discussion and a request from customers of better understanding the technology and how it could fit part of the use case as they build out their inference architecture. So we'll update you as we go over the next couple of quarters, and we'll see how this develops. But definitely something to keep an eye on.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Schneider from Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider

I was wondering, maybe on a more tactical basis, your consumer business obviously has seasonality in Q1 historically. And obviously, the PC business does too, but data centers is in a, sort of, secular growth mode. So Luis, based on your visibility at this point, I was just wondering if you could maybe give us any kind of color on whether you'd expect Q1 to be sequentially up, down or sideways roughly?

Luis Visoso

So fiscal Q3, you mean?

James Schneider

Yes, the March quarter.

Luis Visoso

Yes. So if you look at historically, right, our Q3 is normally our weakest sequential quarter. So last quarter, for example, our bits were down 19% sequentially. So If I -- we're not guiding Q3, but for modeling purposes, I would be conservative in your sequential growth from Q2 to Q3.

James Schneider

And then just as a matter of principle, on the buybacks, it's good to see the continued execution there. I'm just sort of curious as you sort of start to run down the authorization. Would you expect the Board to re-up their authorization on a quarterly basis? Or maybe you could provide us any more color on how you're thinking about executing on the actual buybacks given a much lower stock price today?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes. So we're -- we have a very clear strategy, 100% of excess cash is going to go back to shareholders. We're going to execute that aggressively or appropriately, and we know how to get a hold of the Board. We have meetings every quarter. And so I don't expect any impedance on that side of the -- from us about how we execute. I expect us to continue to be -- I don't expect us to be, we will be continue to be faithful to our strategy, which is we're going to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. We're off to a good start, I think, over the last couple of quarters totally. I think we bought back 4% of the market capital of the shares outstanding of where we started, and we're going to continue to execute that program appropriately.

Operator

And our next question comes from Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.

Unknown Analyst

This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. The question I have for Dave. I guess looking at your CSP customer base, I kind of wanted to get some color on what the prevailing demand currently is between TLC versus QLC bits? And kind of going forward with the NBMs in place, does that TLC versus QLC mix shift meaningfully later this decade?

David V. Goeckeler

We're still like at that 70-30 number on TLC to QLC, TLC has been a big driver of the portfolio. We are hearing more from our customers about a reacceleration of QLC in different use cases. And so we'll see how that plays out, as you said, through the end of the decade. But yes, that's where it is. I mean that 70-30 number is a pretty good number. And of course, there's some fluctuation quarter-to-quarter a little bit up and down here and there, but that's where it's been, and that's where we expect it to be at least for the next -- the rest of this fiscal year.

Let me put that time horizon and then we'll see what customers are thinking about QLC as we continue to have those discussions. And I will say the ramp -- the Stargate product has been -- which is our QLC product, I don't use too many internal names here, but it's been very well received. It was not that many quarters ago that we were talking about going through qualifications, that's all 100% behind us. Customers are ramping. It's been a very, very well-received product in a very key part of the portfolio.

Unknown Analyst

Got you. And as a quick follow-up, a question on the mobile edge market. Just given the double-digit declines in that market this year as well, but albeit concentrated in the kind of entry and mid-tier of the market. I'm kind of curious like from the demand signals that some of your customers in that work that are giving you, can your mobile bits still grow next year overall?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes. I think let's talk about the market first. I mean you got it. I mean, the low end under pressure, but that leads to a unit decline but a content per unit increasing. So when you add it all up, we expect growth of exabytes in that market next year on a slightly declining unit count. As far as our portfolio, I mean, we don't -- it's kind of like a data center. I don't want to make projections on individual markets.

We will manage the portfolio with agility and flexibility. We've been very clear that we want balance in the portfolio. But we're going to optimize the financial outcome over the short, mid and long term kind of integrate those to get the best outcome, and we'll update you on what the mix of mobile is as we go forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America.

Wamsi Mohan

Yes. In your slide deck you say leading AI companies could indicate further demand upside I was wondering if these are AI labs or Neo clouds? And are any of the credit concerns around the new clouds filtering back to you in any way that you can see at the moment? And I have a follow-up.

Luis Visoso

Yes. We haven't seen any of that. To the contrary, we're seeing very strong demand from our customers. And as I said, if I look at our largest customers, they're basically all investment-grade companies. right, generating very strong cash. So we're not seeing any impacts from any credit issues whatsoever if they are out in the market and demand from our customers is, if anything, strengthening versus where it was a quarter ago.

Wamsi Mohan

So to clarify there, Luis, when you say leading AI companies that you're offering to AI labs over there?

Luis Visoso

We sell to everybody in our business. We sell to hyperscalers, we sell to model makers, we sell to everybody.

Wamsi Mohan

Okay. And then just on linearity in the quarter, it seems like receivables picked up a little bit. Is that something that we should expect because of payment terms as more bits go under NBM? Or was there something else in the quarter?

Luis Visoso

No. We basically saw a little bit of a change in customer mix. And that has a little bit of an impact on our receivables a little bit on linearity, but it's mostly customer mix.

Operator

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani from Evercore.

Amit Daryanani

I guess, David, just to start with on the capital allocation side, as you transition towards becoming a more predictable NBM driven business model, does that change how you think about your capital structure? And historically I think memories perceived to be more cyclical so balance sheet flexibility has been important. But as you become structurally, I think, less cyclical, would that support a willingness to take on leverage and potentially accelerate the capital returns or is it comfort still with the $5 billion a quarter buyback which is fairly impressive. I'm just wondering, at what point do you say we can take on more leverage and take advantage of the fact that we're less cyclical?

David V. Goeckeler

Yes. I mean we put a financial model out. I mean we just talked -- we just spent 3.5 hours talking about this at our Analyst Day, and we committed to a financial model through the end of the -- through 2030, which I think was pretty impressive. And we plan to execute that, and we're very comfortable with the strategy we have of staying debt-free, very strong balance sheet and then returning -- investing in our business. We have a growing business and lots of opportunities for internal innovation, which we're going to continue to invest in like HBF and 3D Matrix memory in addition to the BiCS road map and all the great products we build.

And after we do that, we're going to return 100% of the cash flow to shareholders, and that's the plan, and we're going to go execute that for the foreseeable future. And so we get up at another point and tell you we're going to change it. But I don't anticipate that -- I don't anticipate that happening in any kind of near-term time frame. Fair enough.

Amit Daryanani

And then maybe just on HBF and rather trying to ask you to frame how big the TAM could be. Could you just talk about what the scaling variable really is every year as inference models and context windows expand, should we think HBF capacity to grow in line to GPU compute or potentially faster and I think you said you will start initial sampling in '27. What's -- what are the key milestones from there to becoming a meaningful revenue ramp as well?

David V. Goeckeler

Well, I mean, so it's a little early for your first question. But on the second question, we get to die back. We have the base die, which we'll tape out, which is the controller, we'll put them together, put it in customers' hands. And then they start to see how the product is going to work in their infrastructure. We've obviously done a lot of modeling on that, but actually having the actual product and then doing the integration work. That will then lead -- that kind of feedback from the customer will then lead to be able to start to answer some of the questions that people have. Like what's the market opportunity how fast is it going to happen? What's the TAM? Where exactly is the architecture going to fit. We're going to follow our customers on that. But the big step is to actually put a product in their hands.

And then that leads to a whole another set of conversations with them we actually have the device that we're -- instead of running simulations, we're seeing exactly how it performs in their infrastructure. And does it deliver the results of what they're expecting. And we'll also -- that also helps you continue to expand the set of use cases, right? At this point in development process, you want to be a little bit careful you don't engage too much because you're overwhelming your engineering team with 1,000 ideas of how the product can be used.

So as we get -- as we get actual device that we can put in people's hands, we can open the aperture on those kind of conversations, which will, I think will lead to more use cases for the product. But that's that's still TBD. So I think a lot of things start to happen when you get to that next milestone of actually having a real product. You can -- people can start to -- they can start to use and understand how it impacts what they're trying to do, which is deliver a world-class inference architecture at the best cost point possible. And we think this is a fantastic technology for doing that. But we'll see when we get there and we produce it.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini

David, I want to go back to -- sorry, for the audio. David, I want to go back to what you said earlier, you said that the AI inferencing is being refined, having an impact and more SLC needed. And my question to you is, is this having an adverse impact on adoption of TLC or the growth of TLC or SLC is additive to the same demand by TLC and QLC?

David V. Goeckeler

No, I don't think it's a cannibalization of other NAND products. I think it's an expansion of the TAM into areas that you need different attributes of the technology. You need different endurance, you need different performance. And we can take our product and we can run anything out of the fab in an SLC mode. So there's a lot of flexibility in the product. And I think our people are discovering that and starting to understand how can I apply this in ways where I get I get the attributes I want for the problem I'm trying to solve.

So it's just a more refined view of the architecture, but I don't see it as cannibalizing other parts of the NAND stack. If anything, I see it is -- and I want to be careful on this because it's still early, but is it good enough to replace places where I'm using DRAM, right? Can I get enough endurance? Can I get enough performance if I run NAND in an SLC mode because the cost differential is like huge, 20 to 40x. So I take it as a very healthy sign in many ways, Mehdi. One is like very, very real about how you scale an architecture. When you scale an architecture, you got to do it in the most cost-effective way possible.

And again, NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology. And so it doesn't surprise me that people are finding more ways to use it. In many ways, I think scalable technologies kind of attracts TAM, and I think that, that's what's happening here as these architectures are getting more detailed and more refined.

Mehdi Hosseini

Okay. Let me come from a different angle. And if there is this demand for more enduring SLC and as customers wait for commercialization of HCF. What is the JV's flexibility in adding some SoC capacity to meet that short-term demand.

David V. Goeckeler

No, we don't -- I mean, we don't -- there is no -- I mean I wouldn't think of it as SLC capacity. You can take any -- ourselves are flexible enough that we can run them in whatever mode we want, SLC, MLC, TLC. So we can supply the market with the wafers we have, right? That's how we think about it. And I understand the question of wanting to go to the supply question right away, but it's just like super early to that. These are conversations at this point and customers exploring how they can use technology starting to get some idea of what their demand would be if you use it this way. It's something to keep your eye on. It will impact the market about that because SLC is a little bit of SLC, it is a lot of QLC, but more -- I guess more to come, Mehdi.

Operator

And at this point, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

David V. Goeckeler

All right, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. We appreciate it. Great conversation, and we look forward to seeing you throughout the quarter. Thank you.

Luis Visoso

Thank you.

Operator

And with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.