엔터프라이즈 프로덕츠 파트너스(EPD) 2026년 3분기 실적 컨퍼런스 콜: EBITDA 16% 증가, 퍼미안 전망 상향

핵심 요약

• 엔터프라이즈 프로덕트 파트너스는 28억 달러의 조정 EBITDA를 기록해 전년 동기 대비 16% 증가했으며, 분배 가능 현금 흐름은 23억 달러로 27% 증가했습니다.
• 사상 최대 운영 물량에는 통합 파이프라인 시스템을 통한 일일 1,480만 석유상당배럴 및 일일 85억 입방피트(Bcf)의 천연가스 처리 유입량이 포함되었습니다.
• 퍼미안 처리 유입량은 전년 동기 대비 12% 증가한 일일 46억 Bcf로 사상 최고치를 기록했습니다. 경영진은 2025년부터 2030년까지의 퍼미안 습성 천연가스 및 NGL 생산 증가율 전망치를 기존의 23%에서 34%로 상향 조정했습니다.
• 엔터프라이즈는 63억 달러 규모의 승인된 자체 성장 프로젝트를 건설 중입니다. 경영진은 M&A 멀티플이 경기 고점에 이르렀다고 판단하여 인수합병보다 자체 투자 확대를 지속적으로 선호하고 있습니다.
• 파트너십은 보통주 단위당 0.56달러의 분기 배당금을 발표했으며, 이는 전년 동기 대비 2.8% 증가한 수준입니다. 또한 이번 분기 동안 1억 1,200만 달러 규모의 보통주를 자사주 매입했습니다.
• 짐 티그 공동 CEO는 이번이 그의 마지막 분기 실적 발표 전화회의라고 밝혔습니다. 랜디 파울러가 1월에 CEO 직을 맡을 예정입니다.

주요 재무 데이터

2026년 9월 30일로 종료된 12개월 동안 엔터프라이즈는 약 53억 달러의 자본을 48억 달러의 배당금 및 4억 3,700만 달러의 자사주 매입을 통해 환원했습니다. 이는 조정 영업 현금 흐름의 54%에 해당하는 수준입니다.

사업 및 운영 실적

퍼미안 분지의 천연가스 및 NGL 생산 증가는 엔터프라이즈의 가스 처리, 파이프라인, 분류(fractionation), 저장 및 수출 사업 전반의 실적을 뒷받침했습니다. 헤인즈빌 천연가스 파이프라인 수송량 증가, 미국 에너지 및 석유화학 제품에 대한 견조한 수요, 최근 가동을 시작한 자산들의 기여 역시 수익과 현금 흐름을 뒷받침했습니다.

통합 파이프라인 시스템은 사상 최대인 일일 1,480만 석유상당배럴을 수송했습니다. 해양 터미널은 일일 250만 배럴의 액화 탄화수소를 수출했으며, 총 천연가스 처리 유입량은 사상 최고치인 일일 85억 Bcf에 달했습니다.

퍼미안 플랜트 유입량은 일일 46억 Bcf에 달해 3년간 연평균 성장률(CAGR) 19%를 기록했습니다. 경영진은 유정 감퇴 특성, 가스 매장량이 풍부한 델라웨어 분지층에서의 활발한 활동, 총 회수율을 높이는 기술 등으로 인한 가스 대 원유 비율 상승을 장기 가스 전망 호조의 원인으로 꼽았습니다.

지난 12개월 동안 가동을 시작한 자산에는 엔터프라이즈의 델라웨어 분지 제11 처리 플랜트, 바히아 NGL 파이프라인, 몽벨뷰의 Frac 14, 그리고 네체스 강 NGL 수출 터미널 2단계 사업이 포함됩니다.

2026년 4분기에 완료될 예정인 다음 주요 프로젝트는 휴스턴 선박 운하의 일일 30만 배럴 규모 LPG 수출 확장 프로젝트와 미들랜드 분지의 일일 3억 입방피트(MMcf) 규모 아테나 가스 처리 플랜트입니다. LPG 프로젝트가 완료되면 선박 운하의 선적 용량은 약 일일 110만 배럴로 늘어납니다. 경영진은 확장 용량 전체에 대해 계약이 완료되었다고 밝혔습니다.

경영진 가이던스

엔터프라이즈는 이미 수령한 자산 매각 대금 약 6억 달러를 차감한 2026년 성장 자본 지출을 29억~34억 달러로 예상하고 있습니다. 유지 자본 지출은 약 6억 5,000만 달러가 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

경영진은 현재 2027년 성장 자본 지출이 30억 달러 안팎을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있지만, 연례 예산 수립 절차를 완료하고 생산자 계획을 검토한 후 전망치를 업데이트할 계획입니다.

회사는 이제 2025년부터 2030년까지 퍼미안 습성 천연가스 및 NGL 생산량이 34% 증가할 것으로 전망하며, 이는 이전 전망치인 23%보다 상향된 수치입니다. 2030년 원유 생산량 전망치는 약 일일 10만 배럴 변동하는 데 그쳤습니다.

경영진은 높아진 가스 성장 곡선 덕분에 가스 처리 플랜트 증설 속도를 연간 약 2개 플랜트 수준으로 올릴 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 델라웨어 분지로 연결되는 바히아 파이프라인 연장 구간은 2027년 4분기에 가동될 예정입니다. 일일 100만 배럴 규모로의 확장 공사는 2027년 4분기에 시작하여 2028년 중반까지 진행될 예정입니다.

2026년 첫 9개월 동안 조정 EBITDA가 15% 증가한 이후, 경영진은 2027년 성장세가 2026년에 비해 다소 완만할 수 있다고 말했습니다. 지정학적 상황과 이에 따른 시스템 스프레드의 불확실성이 지속되고 있어 구체적인 비율은 제시하지 않았습니다.

엔터프라이즈는 배당 및 자사주 매입 범위로 조정 영업 현금 흐름의 55%~60%를 적정 수준으로 지속해서 보고 있으며, 자본 환원은 여전히 배당 쪽에 무게를 두고 있습니다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 경영진은 지정학적 갈등과 글로벌 공급 차질이 엔터프라이즈 시스템 전반의 원자재 스프레드에 상당한 영향을 미쳐 2027년 성장에 대한 가시성을 제한할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.
• 변동성이 심한 와하 지역 천연가스 가격으로 인해 2026년 2분기 중 약 200일 분량의 경제성 유입 중단이 발생했으나, 3분기에는 생산이 재개되었습니다.
• 상설 전력망 구축과 전동 펌프장 설치는 바히아 확장 일정의 핵심 공정으로 남아 있습니다.
• 생산자 간 통합으로 인해 고객 포트폴리오가 변화함에 따라 ATEX 재계약 논의가 활발히 진행 중입니다. 경영진은 차세대 계약이 현재의 시장 조건을 반영할 것으로 예상하면서도, ATEX가 EBITDA에서 차지하는 비중은 3% 미만이라고 덧붙였습니다.
• 신규 층군과 발전하는 유정 기술에서 추가 운영 데이터가 축적됨에 따라 퍼미안 가스 생산량 전망치는 계속 변경될 수 있습니다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 하이라이트

퍼미안 가스 성장: 경영진은 높아진 가스 대 원유 비율이 유정 감퇴 특성과 가스 함량이 더 높은 층군으로의 이동을 모두 반영한다고 설명했습니다. 회사는 자사의 전망치에 보수적인 가정이 포함되어 있으며 가스 물량이 추가로 증가할 수 있음을 인정했습니다.

인프라 요구사항: 엔터프라이즈는 더 가파라진 퍼미안 가스 성장 곡선 덕분에 매년 2개 플랜트에 가까운 가스 처리 시설 건설이 뒷받침될 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 또한 경영진은 추가 프로젝트를 발표하지는 않았으나 Frac 15 이후에도 추가 분리 용량이 필요할 것으로 보고 있음을 내비쳤습니다.

LPG 수출: 일일 30만 배럴 규모의 휴스턴 선박 운하 확장 프로젝트는 전체 계약이 완료되어 초기 시운전 단계에 있습니다. 경영진은 2027년 동안 총 수출 물량이 크게 증가할 것으로 예상하며, 2020년대 말까지 LPG 용량의 약 90%가 계약 완료되었다고 밝혔습니다.

자본 배분: 경영진은 M&A에 비해 자체 성장이 일관성 있는 수익률을 제공하고 예기치 못한 변수가 적다는 역사적 경험을 토대로 자체 성장을 강조했습니다. 2.9배의 레버리지 비율은 유연성을 제공하지만, 회사는 현재 레버리지가 현재 수준보다 크게 낮아질 것으로 예상하지는 않습니다.

NGL 가격 결정 및 석유화학: 경영진은 최근 에탄과 프로판 가격의 근월물 강세를 멕시코만 연안의 신규 크래커 수요, 추가 수출 용량, 그리고 타이트한 분리 용량 수급 상황과 연관 지어 설명했습니다. 엔터프라이즈는 미국 에탄 시장이 여전히 공급 우위 상태를 유지할 것으로 예상합니다. 석유화학 부문에서는 이번 분기 프로필렌 및 에틸렌 수출 약세를 MTBE 실적 호조가 상쇄했으며, 경영진은 계절적 MTBE 약세에도 불구하고 해당 부문의 실적이 지속 가능하다고 설명했습니다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners LP's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the call over to Joe Theriac, VP of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Lateef. Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss third quarter 2026 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange and 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable and give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

A. Teague

Thank you, Joe. As some of you may or may not know, this marks my final quarterly earnings call as co-CEO of Enterprise. Looking out across this room and reflecting on nearly 3 decades, it's impossible not to feel a profound sense of gratitude [indiscernible] the journey we have shared. When I joined Enterprise in 1999, the company had an enterprise value of less than $2 billion. Today, it approaches $120 billion. The true measure of Enterprise has never been just the number on the balance sheet. It has always been defined by a philosophy that was [ ended ] down by Dan. Do the best you can every day. Those simple yet profound words became the foundation of the Enterprise culture, define both our personal and collected mission, achieved extraordinary results through hard work, perseverance and team work.

Before going Enterprise, I spent more than 2 decades at [ Dow Chemical ]. I was an Enterprise customer. My time on the other side of the negotiating table gave me a unique perspective of the midstream industry. It helped me to view our assets from the customers' point of view. That customer-first mindset is woven directly into our culture, driving our team to ask the hard questions. How do we solve our customers' problems? How do we eliminate downtime and how do we keep products moving. That mindset, combined with an extraordinary team willing to ask [indiscernible] why not allowed us to move quickly when the shale revolution transformed our industry.

We spent the last 20 years connecting supply basins from the Permian, Eagle, Haynesville and Marcellus to our customers along with the Coast. And when domestic production exceeded U.S. demand, we built and expanded our collection export terminals to deliver product all over the world. When I look at our network of pipelines, plants and docks, I don't just see physical assets, I see the people who run them. Our assets thrive because the people operating them care about one another. Enterprise's success has never been driven by individual [ Eros ], it's driven by teamwork. We operate as one, 1 team and 1 book, the Enterprise book. A decision is made based on the overall benefit for the company. For a long time, we've measured things in [ Dan ] dollars. Today, we measure them Randall dollars. Our strength comes from checking [ egos ] at the door and staying laser-focused on the details. All the men and women across our entire system, thank you. You are the true engine of Enterprise. You've braved freezing rain, brutal heat hurricanes and a pandemic. And when times get tough [indiscernible] work around the clock to keep production flowing. Serving alongside you has been the greatest breach of my professional life.

To Randall, thank you for your unwavering support and thank you for your dedication for preserving our [indiscernible] values. To my partner, Randy. We have shared an incredible working partnership for nearly 30 years. Your financial discipline, sound business judgment and dedication to our core values represent everything the Enterprise culture stands for. As Randy assumes the CEO role in January, I step aside knowing with certainty this company is absolutely in the best hands, Finally, by our investors and the analyst community. Thank you for the engagement, the sharp questions and the trust you placed in our company over the years.

And with that, you got the ball [indiscernible] boy.

W. Fowler

And as always, you're a hard act to follow. Thank you for your leadership and interest over the past 28 years. You have been a pace setter and driver of value creation for our customers and our partnership. Whether it was developing NGL markets, both domestically and internationally, to absorb all the prolific amount of NGLs produced from the shale plays. Or developing transparent and liquid pricing hubs for ethylene and polymer propylene that benefited our petrochemical customers or leading the [indiscernible] to improve the Houston Ship Channel [ through Assure 2-way ] traffic in securing the Project 11 deepening and widening expansion project, you have been one of the leading change agents in our industry. We congratulate on an extraordinary career and wish you the absolute best and the next chapters of your remarkable life.

Now with that, let's turn to the quarter. Enterprise reported another strong performance for the third quarter. These results were primarily driven by increased natural gas and NGL production growth in the Permian. And that was reflected across our entire natural gas and NGL value chain businesses. Also from continuing strong demand for U.S. energy and petrochemical products including the motor gasoline additives we produce, also higher natural gas pipeline volumes in the Haynesville Basin as well as earnings and cash flow from new assets placed in service over the past 12 months.

For the quarter, we generated $2.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA a 16% increase over the third quarter last year. Distributable cash flow from operations increased 27% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, providing 1.9x coverage and generating $1.1 billion of retained cash flow that we've reinvested back in the partnership. Our integrated pipeline system moved a record 14.8 million barrels per day equivalent and our marine terminals exported 2.5 million barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbons. And our natural gas processing business, total inlet volumes reached a record 8.5 Bcf a day.

In the Permian Basin, plant inlet volumes increased by 12% compared to the third quarter of last year, hitting a record 4.6 Bcf per day. Our 3-year CAGR on Permian plant in volumes is 19%. That production growth feeds our integrated NGL value chain supporting higher pipeline, fractionation, storage and export [ utilization ]. Our system provides our producer customers flow reliability and access to multiple markets while providing our consumer customer supply diversification.

Assets that began operations during the past 12 months include our 11th natural gas processing plant in the Delaware Basin, the Bahia NGL pipeline, frac 14 in Mont Belvieu, and the second phase of our Neches River NGL export terminal. Global energy supply disruptions and volatility continue to support strong international demand for U.S. hydrocarbons, particularly NGLs, petrochemicals and refined products. In this environment, our reliability, flexibility and most of all, price transparency remain increasingly valuable for our international customers.

Looking ahead, our next major projects scheduled for completion in the fourth -- in the fourth quarter are 300,000 barrels a day LPG export expansion at our Houston Ship Channel, export marine terminal and a new 300 million cubic feet per day per gas processing plant in the Midland Basin. The LPG lean terminal expansion will increase our total LPG loading capacity at the ship channel to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day. Athena, our 20th natural gas processing plant in the Permian Basin will increase our total processing capacity in the basin to nearly 5 Bcf per day. We have recently updated our production growth -- Permian production growth forecast through 2030. While our 2025 to 2030 forecast of crude oil production, changed modestly, the growth changed modestly, only 100,000 barrels per day by 2030 our forecast of wet natural gas and NGL [ production ] during this time period increases to 34% due to higher gas to oil ratios in the Permian. This compares to 23% growth for this time period that we forecasted last April.

I'd refer you to Page 9 of our third quarter earnings supplemental slide deck for this updated forecast. And [ Cott ] can address this further during our Q&A. We have a confident outlook continued production growth in the Permian Basin and robust domestic and international demand are providing attractive organic growth opportunities for the partnership. We are remaining disciplined in our capital allocation, rather than pursuing acquisitions at top-of-the-cycle M&A multiples, we have been opting for targeted organic growth that historically provided us higher and more consistent returns on capital with fewer surprises. We have $6.3 billion of organic growth projects that have been sanctioned and are under construction. We believe with these opportunities and solid execution, our team can continue to deliver cash flow per unit growth that will increase the value of our partnership over time.

During the quarter, we declared a distribution of $0.56 per common unit for the third quarter, which is a 2.8% increase over the distribution that we declared for the third quarter [ '25 ]. The distribution will be paid on November 30 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on October 30. The partnership purchased $112 million of its common units during the third quarter. Total year-to-date repurchases for 2026 were $387 million bringing the cumulative utilization of our $5 billion buyback program to 36%. In addition to buybacks, purchases under our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan totaled approximately 1 million common units. For the 12 months ended September 30, 2026 Enterprise paid out approximately $4.8 billion in distributions to limited partners combined with $437 million of buybacks over the same period Enterprise's total capital return was $5.3 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 54%.

Total capital investments were $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026, which included $900 million for growth capital projects and $185 million of sustaining CapEx. Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2026 will net to between $2.9 billion and $3.4 billion after applying approximately $600 million of proceeds from asset sales already received. While we currently expect our growth capital expenditures in 2027 to still be in the $3 billion area. Given the expected natural gas and NGL volume growth in the Permian, we will provide an update next quarter after we complete our annual budget cycle and review [ production ] plans.

Sustaining CapEx for 2026 are expected to be approximately $650 million. Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $33.7 billion as of September 30. Assuming the final maturity date for our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio is approximately 17 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.7%, and approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate. At September 30, our consolidated liquidity was approximately $4.8 billion, including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. As of September 30, our consolidated leverage ratio was 2.9x on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partners -- partnerships unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains 3x plus or [ minus 1/4 ]. So that is 2.7x to 3.25x.

With that, Joe, we can open it up for questions.

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Andy. Lateef, we are ready to open up the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question is from the line of Jean Ann Sailsbury of BofA.

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Jean Ann Salisbury

Jim, best of luck to you in retirement. We are definitely going to miss hearing quotable quotes on these calls. There will be a void during earnings season, and thank you for all of the help.

A. Teague

Thank you, Jean Ann.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Corey, I just wanted to ask what drove the increase in your gas-to-oil ratio forecast? Was it decline curves in wells that have already been online? Or was this more of an expectation of a coming producer shift to more Delaware or something like that?

Corey Johnson

Yes, Jean Ann, it's a great question, and I think you nailed it. It really is both of those factors kind of combined. So when we think about the decline curves we have been seeing the [indiscernible] all on natural gas, so when we look at our PDP, you get that compounding effect of more natural gas coming online relative to crude oil. So that was one of the key drivers for increased GORs in the basin. The other one, obviously, as you pointed out, is people moving to different locations, whether it be moving just into a location in the Delaware Basin where we're seeing a little bit of activity from a growth perspective. Typically, the Delaware Base is dryer, but they're also hitting new benches that are [ using ] really high GORs. Some of these benches typically will reach as high as 89 GOR on [indiscernible], and these are the Woodfords and the Barnett's relative to what we would see on a Wolfcamp that's more like a 2 GOR IP. So some of these areas definitely have rock that have more gas -- and when we build out our forecast, Jean Ann, and there's a couple that we like to look at. One of them, obviously, is location, as I just mentioned, another one is technology, and we keep looking at what the producers are doing in the basin, using different potents, new surfactants, new drilling mechanisms, the frac equipment is better.

When I think about total recoveries that come out of the rock, as we've been talking about an increase in total recovery in the basin, those last few percent are typically going to be a lighter molecule. So these are all factors driving higher GORs.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Thank you. I look forward to doubling into it even further with you in the next few weeks. As my follow-up, ethane and propane prices have been very strong in the past month or so. I think some are attributing it to a ramp in exports. Some are saying that fractionation is extremely tight, and that's the main driver. I'm just wondering what your view is and whether these elevated price levels of ethane and propane you expect to persist?

Tyler Cott

Jean Ann, it's Tyler Cott, yes, we've seen a little bit of an increase. It's been mostly in the front of the curve. And I think it's for the reasons that you said, just timing around demand and supply. We've had new ethane cracker in the U.S. Gulf Coast reportedly starting up and a little bit of new export capacity. So I think that's part of it, along with fractionation waiting to come online. I think it's important to note, though, that the U.S. is still extremely competitive somewhat due to the high freight cost. So U.S. consumers of those NGLs are still very much advantage to the rest of the world.

Unknown Executive

And Jean Ann, this is [indiscernible]. I'll just add that ethane production is continuing to grow, we still continue to expect ethane to be long here in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen of Barclays.

Theresa Chen

Congratulations again, to Jim. Thank you for your leadership, and we wish you the best as well. Going back to the macro forecast, given the magnitude of the gas provision in just 6 months and with the provisions consistently moving higher over the past iterations [indiscernible] conservatism and general subjectivity is embedded in your assumptions? And do you see the potential for CR to surprise even further to that upside?

Corey Johnson

This is Corey. Yes, I think there are some conservative variables that we have in there. When we look at how these type curves are changing, it's a measure of what we've seen change in the past. And some of these new formations are really new to us. And so we're going to see how they shake out. So there could be more gas.

Theresa Chen

And turning to the Northeast with continued upstream consolidation there, how are you thinking about the implications for ATEX recontracting at this point. I'm taking into account the existing plans at [ AR and RSE ] and now the [ ETT ] branch combination -- does the change in producer landscape alter the commercial dynamics around ATEX as those contracts come up for renewal soon?

W. Fowler

Yes. And Theresa, before I turn it over to Carrie to answer. Just to keep in context, this is less than 3% of our EBITDA. Carrie, go ahead.

Carrie Weaver

This is Carrie Weaver. We don't view the recent announcements as materially changing how we look at ATEX. We recognize that there certainly could be some optimization as customers look at their portfolios. And we would expect the next generation of contracts to reflect today's market rather than the e-com that existed when [indiscernible] was originally contracted. But the conversations are still dynamic, and we're having those with current potential new shippers as we continue to evaluate on a high level what the best, most economic uses of the pipe, but we continue to view ATEX as a very strategic asset and that's especially with the significant amount of demand coming online in the Gulf Coast that will need the ethane.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis of Citi.

Spiro Dounis

Thanks, operator. Congrats once again, Jim, Randy, very much looking forward to your first monologue. Going to the '27 outlook first. I know the original 10% increase in '27 is maybe less relevant now, given the '26 outperformance. But from what I can tell, you've largely sort of held firm that ultimate EBITDA endpoint for '27 and maybe hesitant to say that '26 tailwinds are durable through next year. So curious now, maybe to get an update on that outlook, especially in light of you raising your Permian volume outlook?

W. Fowler

Yes. Spiro, I don't get used to the monologue. We're going to be having some additional speakers on the next call. Fair question. The one thing to keep in context, if you just look at our EBITDA through the first 3 quarters of this year, we're up 15% year-to-date. So I think to a degree, we got things backwards when we said we were looking at modest growth in '26 and then we could see up to 10% growth in '27. I think the way it's turning out, again, 15% up year-to-date. So 2027. Hard to know what the world will bring in '27 as far as geopolitical conflicts and what have you, but '27 may be more modest compared to what we're going to wind up reporting 2026.

Spiro Dounis

Got it. And we see a modest percentage basis? Just want to make sure I understand what that means.

W. Fowler

Spiro, it depends on what your crystal ball is for geopolitical [indiscernible]. Because that's where we picked up some nice spreads across the system. So without that, I think it's probably more modest, not really looking to put a percent on it.

Spiro Dounis

Yes. I can appreciate the lack of clarity these days. Second question, maybe just turning to leverage below 3x now, what I could tell, trending perhaps even below your sort of lower end of the range next year if all goes well. Good problem to have, certainly, but I guess at what point do you consider yourselves under levered? Is that a meaningful consideration in your mind? And what are the options to address it? I know buybacks are there, but you've taken a growing but kind of measured approach on that. And so I'm curious, do you see large growth opportunities manifesting themselves now for later in the decade? Or does M&A suddenly come back into focus?

W. Fowler

Spiro, we -- from the -- we're just looking at 2.9x on debt-to-EBITDA. We just picked that this quarter and think of that -- some of that is the tailwind of 15% EBITDA growth this year. So we're benefiting from that. Certainly, the balance sheet flexibility gives us a lot of -- a lot of room on the M&A side. But again, as we said in the prepared remarks, we've really been deliberate on the M&A front. And it seems like organic growth gives us more consistent returns of capital. And like I said, I'll reiterate with a lot fewer surprises than what we see on the M&A side. So I don't see the [indiscernible] for our debt to go much lower than where it is today. And -- but we've got -- as we said in the prepared remarks, we've got a lot of good growth opportunities coming in, especially when you come in and look at just the gas and NGL rich content, in the Permian. We've got a lot of room to run.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.

Manav Gupta

I actually just wanted to follow up quickly on the Bahia expansion. Your partner is obviously setting the envelope of developments within the Permian with stackable technologies and their volumes are growing at a faster pace than anyone would have expected. So if you could give us an update on the Bahia expansion probably coming on from 1 year from now?

Carrie Weaver

Yes. This is Carrie. As we look at Bahia, the extension into the Delaware will be in service for fourth quarter of '27, the expansion of 400,000 barrels a day, stepping us up to 1 million barrels a day. We start in the fourth quarter of '27 as well and continue through mid-2028. And that's as we get permanent power and pump stations with power really being a critical path.

Manav Gupta

Perfect. And my quick follow-up is, I think you mentioned in the opening comments that you don't want to pay higher multiples at the peak of the cycle. But thinking about very strong balance sheet, any potential bolt-on opportunities, where are the areas where we be potentially looking to buy some stuff if it's available at the right price.

W. Fowler

Really, I would -- I think as far as bolt-on opportunities really across the entire value chain across the entire system.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay of Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

Go back to the [ current outlook ] a little bit, and this has been touched on, but maybe ask it in a different way. With the higher Permian gas growth outlook, how do you see that kind of changing your project plans over the next few years? I mean, if you're going to, let's say, hold relative G&P market share, it probably implies more plants and therefore, more downstream in the plan than you would have been considering before. So maybe just kind of walk us through how you're thinking about that.

Justin Kleiderer

John, this is Justin Kleiderer. I think in the past, we've said range 1 to 2 a year on plants. Certainly, with the higher growth curve, we feel more confident that we're going to be closer to the 2 per year. if you look historically, processing capacity growth versus production growth versus 2019 had basically matched each other 1 to 1. And so if you just take that out further, the steeper that gas production curve goes, the more infrastructure is going to be needed to support it. So to the extent we continue to revise that curve the more we'll need. So I still think 2 year is good for the runway. And then we'll look to see how some of these newer developments in that basin continue to unfold and pivot around that data.

John Mackay

That's clear. I appreciate that. Second one for me. We have seen LNG contracting off the Gulf Coast pick up on the back of a couple of things, but one of them has been let's say, let's call it an [ energy ] security bid. Anything you guys can share on the LPG contracting side in terms of tone of conversations, how that's picked up over the last couple of months and what we could expect from here?

Tyler Cott

Yes. John, this is Tyler Cott. I think like we said before, on the LPG side, we're pretty highly contracted about 90% through the end of the decade. I think in terms of what we're hearing from our customers, yes, energy security is a big part of it. I think a couple of other things are just the confidence in the U.S. producer and the [indiscernible] story that we're talking about, our customers definitely see that. And then I think, finally, at least for us and our assets, we offer a little bit of a differentiated service. We have a lot of scale, a lot of flexibility for different terminals. So I think that's also contributed to a lot of the strong interest that we've seen.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies. Julien.

Unknown Analyst

You've actually got Patrick. But from Julien and myself another congratulations on your retirement. So thank you for everything. And I think [indiscernible] will just be evolving a bit from some of the other ones there. In terms of that growth going towards the end of the decade, and I know you don't want to do a CapEx update to Q4. But does that extend to changing your forecast for a number of frac plants as well? And if you could talk a little bit about the lead times that you need for that kind of change in CapEx allocation. I mean if you're looking at adding stuff in '28-'29 does it basically have to be announced in Q4 or you can't do it in that time frame? Or is there a chance that could keep evolving as you change your forecast each year?

Zach Strait

Julien, it's Zach Strait. As far as outlook on fracs, I'm not going to say we're going to build -- I actually think we probably will build more but we feel pretty good where we're at. We just announced Frac 15. It's not coming on until '28. Lead times have been a bit more extended or probably 6 more months, but we've got a lot of flexibility in our downstream value chain, storage, fracs across South Texas, Louisiana. So we feel pretty good where we're at with 15 and we'll see what contracting we do for the next one.

Unknown Analyst

And another question evolving on that Permian growth story. I think I'm just wondering if you're planning on expanding your market share earlier. I think there was a comment in your last answer about growing 1:1 production growth and process capacity. Is there any intention to get more competitive and take more market share? I think you been growing that quite a bit over the last few years, right?

Justin Kleiderer

Yes, Patrick, this is Justin Kleiderer. Yes, I mean I think as Randy said in his comments, we've grown at a 19% CAGR, which is in excess of what the basin has done. And so I would expect we'll continue to see that trend play out going forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley

Randy, how are you thinking about buybacks for next year and beyond? Is the 50% to 60% of free cash flow framework that you laid out for this year, something you think you would continue to do?

W. Fowler

As far as total capital return. Yes, I think what we had said is really in 55% to 60% range. I think that's still a good range to think about.

Keith Stanley

Okay. So 55% to 60% of return of cash flow.

W. Fowler

Yes. Specifically, 55% to 60% of adjusted cash flow from operations for distributions and buybacks. And just when you've seen what we've done over the last 12 months, that's still heavily skewed towards the distribution.

Keith Stanley

Got it. The next question on the LPG export expansion. So you're nearing completion. It's rather large at 300,000 barrels a day. How can we think about a ramp-up of volumes and how quickly you think you could fill that level of expanded capacity on exports?

Tyler Cott

Keith, this is Tyler Cott. It's full. We've contracted it. We are in the early stages of commissioning, and we're confident we're going to be commissioned here before the end of the year. As we've said, I think what's important for us is that we're getting bigger, but we're getting more flexible as well. We have 3 different terminals. They all have some amount of product flexibility. So we'll be steering our excess capacity, if you will, or spot capacity to the market that needs it month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter.

Keith Stanley

Okay. But it sounds like we're going to see a big step up in total export volumes in 2027 at a high level.

Tyler Cott

I agree, yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank.

Brandon Bingham

Just wanted to maybe go back to the Permian forecast, but more on the crude side, the growth was more or less unchanged, just a modest uptick there. Could you just walk through some of the dynamics that you're seeing on the crude side? And -- do you think there is any upside pencil to that particular stream?

James Bany

Brandon, this is Jay Bany. I think what we've seen on the crude side, over call it the second and third quarters, we've seen a little bit of production move up within our dedicated acreage. That's predominantly around the Midland Basin. And then in the Permian Basin, we've seen our trunk line connects with third-party gatherers, we've seen volumes increase on that, call it, up to 50,000 barrels a day. So we're seeing growth in both basins.

Brandon Bingham

Okay. And maybe just the broader basin forecast that you guys updated today. Any thoughts around that holistic piece.

Corey Johnson

Yes. This is Corey Johnson. So when we look at our forecast update, it really wasn't a change in the cadence of completions or drilling. It was a change in what we're seeing coming out of the rock. And so that's why we didn't see a whole lot of change in the crude oil, and we saw more of a change in the gas because, again, we're getting more gas and about the same cred we had expected before.

Brandon Bingham

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick one. Petchem segment looks really good. Just kind of curious how much of that, looking at the bridge quarter-over-quarter can be carried forward? And maybe how much of that do you think is maybe more along the lines of market dynamics at present?

F. D'Anna

Brandon, this is Chris D'Anna. Yes, there were some puts and takes. So propylene was down lower. And so as our ethylene exports, but MTBE kind of picked up the slack and some. So we're seeing MTBE a little bit weaker right now, typical seasonal weakness, but ethylene and propylene have both picked back up. So I guess yes, summary, yes, it's sustainable.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

Two questions on the Permian gas, one maybe related to the near -- or to the 3Q print. You had a step-up in net volumes didn't have any new processing plants coming online. So I was wondering if you could talk through what drove the step up? How much of that is just a ramp-up of volumes on your acreage? Is there any consideration for others, offloading volumes onto your plants, which maybe is not sustainable? Any color there would be helpful.

Justin Kleiderer

Jason, Justin Kleiderer again. Yes. I mean, I think quarter-over-quarter, we're up 13% in the Delaware and just over 10% in the Midland. I'd say in the second quarter, we saw probably about 200 days of economic shut-ins due to all the volatility in Waha pricing. And so I think you can say that's a combination. The growth you're seeing quarter-over-quarter is a combination of that production coming back as well as some just organic -- additional acreage being completed and brought in line behind the system. So it's a combination of the 2.

Jason Gabelman

Great. And I wanted to hit on the long-term forecast again, sorry. But -- the dry gas out of the Permian forecast is only 7.5 Bs a day. I think at this point, we're up to 20 Bs a day of new dry gas egress coming out of the Permian between '25 and 2030. So Corey, I'm wondering if that kind of pipeline build out fed into your modeling at all and how you explain the delta between your dry gas production growth and the amount of pipeline capacity that's been contracted?

Corey Johnson

And when we run our analysis, it's really a bottom-up analysis looking at the rock and talking to all adjustments customers to see how they are reacting and then also what they're seeing in the basin. When it comes to the overall forecast, does factor in when we think about what the way looks like for producers. I think this is probably the clearest runway we've had in years for producers to look out and see that there is plenty of takeaway capacity for them to grow into -- and so it will be a factor when we sit down and recalibrate for our 2027 forecast that we should release somewhere in that March, April time frame.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Joe Theriac for closing remarks. Sir?

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Lateef. Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.