CRH 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜: 업데이트된 가이던스, 아코사 시너지 및 60억 달러 자사주 매입

CRH(NYSE: CRH)는 긍정적인 가격 책정, 인수합병, 인프라 수요가 주택 경기 침체와 에너지, 원자재, 운송비 상승을 상쇄하면서 견조한 2026년 3분기 실적을 발표했습니다. 경영진은 연간 전망을 수정하고 조정 EBITDA가 78억 달러에서 80억 달러에 달할 것으로 예상했습니다.

핵심 요약

• 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 3% 증가한 114억 달러를 기록한 반면, 조정 EBITDA는 27억 달러로 변동이 없었습니다.
• 조정 EBITDA 마진율은 약 24%로 80베이시스포인트(bp) 하락했습니다. 전년 동기 일회성 이익을 제외하면 마진율은 2025년 3분기와 거의 비슷한 수준이었습니다.
• CRH는 2026년 조정 EBITDA를 78억 달러~80억 달러, 순이익을 31억 달러~33억 달러, 조정 희석주당순이익(EPS)을 $5.37~$5.59로 예상합니다.
• 회사는 85억 달러 규모의 아코사(Arcosa) 인수를 완료했으며, 첫해 6,000만 달러를 포함해 3년 차까지 연간 약 1억 7,500만 달러의 비용 시너지 효과를 기대하고 있습니다.
• CRH는 2030년 말까지 진행되는 60억 달러 규모의 자사주 매입 프로그램을 시작했으며, 분기 배당금을 주당 $0.39로 5% 인상했습니다.
• 밸로시티(Velocity) 혁신 프로그램은 2028년 말까지 연간 최소 4억 달러의 조정 EBITDA 창출 효과를 낼 것으로 기대됩니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

아메리카 머티리얼즈 솔루션

가격 인상, 인수합병, CRH의 연계된 포트폴리오에 힘입어 매출은 6% 증가했고 조정 EBITDA는 1% 증가했습니다. 이센셜 머티리얼즈(Essential Materials) 매출은 19% 늘어났습니다.

골재 출하량은 2% 증가했으며, 보고된 가격은 5% 인상(믹스 조정 기준 6% 인상)되었습니다. 시멘트 출하량은 보합세를 보였고 평균 시멘트 가격은 2% 하락했습니다. 에코 머티리얼(Eco Material)은 출하량과 가격 모두 한 자릿수 중반의 성장률을 기록했습니다.

로드 솔루션(Road Solutions) 매출은 아스팔트 및 레미콘 가격 개선에 힘입어 2% 증가했습니다. 하지만 에너지, 원자재 및 운송 비용 상승으로 마진이 압박을 받았습니다. 경영진은 디젤 가격이 7월 초중순 저점 대비 단기간에 40%나 상승해 시즌 후반 비용 회수가 더욱 어려워졌다고 설명했습니다.

아메리카 빌딩 솔루션

사업 매각, 주택 경기 침체, 전년도 토지 매각 이익 부재 등이 반영되면서 매출은 3% 감소하고 조정 EBITDA는 18% 하락했습니다. 다만 토지 매각을 제외할 경우 조정 EBITDA와 마진율은 전년 동기를 웃돌았습니다.

데이터 센터, 수자원 인프라, 에너지 인프라 분야의 수요는 계속해서 견조한 상태를 유지했습니다.

인터내셔널 솔루션

매출은 1% 증가, 조정 EBITDA는 6% 증가했으며, 마진율은 110베이시스포인트(bp) 확대되었습니다. 특정 시장에서의 활동 증가, 우호적인 가격 책정, 엄격한 비용 관리가 호실적을 견인했습니다.

유럽 수요는 인프라 및 리쇼어링(재산업화)의 수혜를 입었습니다. 호주는 인프라 활성화, 운영 효율화 및 인수에 따른 혜택을 계속해서 누렸습니다.

아코사 인수

CRH는 85억 달러 규모의 아코사 인수를 일정보다 앞당겨 완료했습니다. 아코사는 연간 3,500만 톤의 골재 생산 능력을 더해 CRH의 연간 미국 합산 생산량을 2억 6,500만 톤 이상으로 끌어올렸습니다.

경영진은 3년 차까지 연간 약 1억 7,500만 달러의 비용 시너지 효과를 기대하고 있으며, 첫해에는 6,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 시너지 기회로는 생산 효율화, 물류 최적화, 자재 자급률 제고, 조달 개선, 지원 부문 간소화 등이 꼽힙니다.

아코사의 엔지니어드 스트럭처(Engineered Structures) 사업은 미국 송전, 전력망 현대화, 전기화 및 데이터 센터 건설에 대한 CRH의 참여도를 넓혀줍니다. 경영진은 이 사업 부문이 향후 3~4년 동안 두 자릿수 매출 성장을 기록할 것으로 기대하고 있으며, 주문 리드 타임이 최장 12개월에 달한다고 밝혔습니다.

자본 배분 및 밸로시티

CRH는 올해 들어 현재까지 아코사 인수액 85억 달러와 27건의 추가 인수에 투입된 19억 달러를 포함해 골재, 시멘트계 재료, 도로, 수자원 분야에 총 104억 달러를 투자했습니다. 또한 비주력 자산 매각 19억 달러를 완료했으며, 3분기까지 12억 달러의 성장을 위한 자본 지출(CAPEX)을 집행했습니다.

60억 달러 규모의 신규 자사주 매입 프로그램은 2030년 말까지 진행됩니다. 또한 CRH는 분기 배당금을 주당 $0.39로 전년 동기 대비 5% 인상한다고 발표했습니다. 경영진은 투자적격 신용등급을 유지하면서 시간이 지남에 따라 레버리지 비율이 약 2배 수준으로 정상화될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

밸로시티는 조직 단순화, 기술, AI, 데이터 및 신속한 의사결정에 중점을 둔 2개년 이니셔티브입니다. CRH는 2028년 말까지 연간 최소 4억 달러의 조정 EBITDA 창출 효과를 거둘 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 2027년에 약 40%, 2028년 말까지 잔여분이 달성될 예정입니다.

회사는 일회성 혁신 비용으로 약 4억 달러가 발생할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 이 중 약 3분의 2는 2026년 하반기 및 2027년 중에 발생하고, 나머지 3분의 1은 2028년에 발생할 것으로 전망됩니다. CRH는 2030년 조정 EBITDA 마진율 목표를 이전 제시 범위의 상단인 약 24%로 상향 조정했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

이 전망은 2026년 남은 기간 동안 정상적인 기후 조건이 유지되고, 에너지 비용이 현재의 높은 수준을 유지하며, 지정학적 또는 거시경제적 주요 추가 혼란이 없다는 것을 전제로 합니다. 아코사는 경영진이 계절적 비수기라고 설명한 연말 마지막 2개월 동안 실적에 기여할 예정입니다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 가격-비용 스프레드가 양수로 전환되고 마진 확대로 복귀할 것으로 기대합니다. CRH는 광범위한 시장 수요가 보합 또는 소폭 호조를 보이는 가운데 골재 가격이 한 자릿수 후반의 상승률을 보일 것으로 예상합니다. 미국의 시멘트계 재료 출하량과 가격은 한 자릿수 초반 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 해외 시멘트 출하량은 한 자릿수 초반 증가하고 가격은 한 자릿수 중반 상승할 것으로 기대됩니다.

경영진은 또한 2027년 전체 비용 인플레이션이 한 자릿수 중반 수준을 기록할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 회사는 아코사의 온전한 1년 치 실적 기여, 인수 시너지 및 초기 밸로시티 비용 절감의 혜택을 누릴 것으로 기대합니다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 디젤, 에너지, 원자재 및 운송 비용의 고공행진은 3분기 수익성을 떨어뜨렸으며 연간 전망에도 계속 반영되어 있습니다.
• 미국의 주택 경기 활동은 구매력 부담과 고금리로 인해 여름 동안 더욱 약화되었습니다. 경영진은 빠르면 2028년 중반 이전에는 의미 있는 회복을 기대하기 어렵다고 보고 있습니다.
• 4분기 실적은 계절적으로 규모가 작으며, 한파가 일찍 오거나 이례적으로 온화한 겨울 날씨의 영향을 받을 수 있습니다.
• CRH는 2027년 플러스 가격-비용 스프레드를 회복하기 위해 가격 인상, 유류 할증료, 운영상 조치에 의존하고 있습니다.
• 회사는 그룹 차원의 밸로시티 혁신을 실행하는 동시에 아코사 통합을 수행하고 계획된 시너지를 달성해야 합니다.
• 경영진은 양당의 지지, 안정적인 입찰 활동, 전년 수준을 유지하는 수주 잔고를 언급했으나, 다년간의 미국 고속도로 재정 지원 재승인 건은 아직 미결 상태로 남아 있습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

2026년 가이던스 수정: 경영진은 수정된 전망의 원인으로 3분기 실적, 에너지 및 운송비의 급격한 상승, 미국 주택 경기의 추가 약세, 4분기 전망 등을 꼽았습니다. 가이던스는 에너지 비용이 높은 수준을 유지하고 정상적인 기후 조건이 지속된다고 가정합니다.

2027년 가격 책정 및 마진율: CRH는 골재 가격 인상 조치가 이미 시장에서 적용되고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 경영진은 인플레이션 비용 환경에도 불구하고 2027년 골재 가격이 한 자릿수 후반 인상되고 마진율이 확대될 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

자사주 매입 대 M&A: 경영진은 60억 달러 규모의 자사주 매입이 2030년까지의 400억 달러 자본 배분 프레임워크와 일관성을 유지하고 있다고 밝혔습니다. CRH는 절제된 인수를 추진할 수 있는 여력을 유지하고 투자적격 신용등급을 지키면서 자사주 매입을 적극적으로 이어갈 것으로 기대됩니다.

밸로시티 이행: 목표로 하는 연간 4억 달러의 창출 효과 중 약 40%가 2027년에 달성될 것으로 예상됩니다. 이니셔티브에는 관리직 단계 축소, 아스팔트 연료 사용 최적화, 42개 대형 사업장에 커넥티드 채석장 플랫폼 도입 등이 포함됩니다. 채석장 이니셔티브를 통해 변동비를 7%~10% 절감하고, 아스팔트 공장 연료 이니셔티브는 천연가스를 10%~15% 절감하는 것을 목표로 합니다.

인프라 자금 지원: 경영진은 현재 미국 인프라 자금의 약 40%가 아직 집행되지 않았다고 밝혔습니다. 주 정부 자금 지원은 기초 인프라 투자의 약 60%를 차지하며, CRH의 입찰 활동 및 수주 잔고는 전년과 대체로 비슷한 수준을 유지하고 있습니다.

어닝 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the CRH Third Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. My name is Krista, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jim Mintern, CRH Chief Executive Officer, to begin the conference. Please go ahead, sir.

Jim Mintern

Hello, everyone. Jim Mintern, here, CEO of CRH, and you're all very welcome to our Q3 2026 Results Presentation and Conference Call. Joining me on the call is Aylwyn Bryan, our CFO; Randy Lake, our COO; and Danilo Juvane, our Head of Investor Relations.

Before we get started, I'll hand over to Danilo for some opening brief remarks.

Danilo Juvane

Thanks, Jim, and hello, everyone. I'd like to draw your attention to Slide 2, shown here on the screen. During our presentation, we will be making some forward-looking statements relating to our future plans and expectations. These are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors outlined on this slide. For more details, please refer to Slide 2 and to our filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are available on our website.

We will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and reconciliations are included in the appendix of the presentation and in our earnings release.

I'll now hand it back to Jim.

Jim Mintern

Over the next 20 minutes or so, we will take you through a brief presentation of our results for the third quarter of the year, highlighting the key components of our operating performance, our recent capital allocation activities as well as providing you with an update on our expectations for the year as a whole. We will also spend some time discussing the continued execution of our strategy and Velocity, a recently launched transformation initiative that will help us build a better CRH and deliver further value creation for our shareholders. Based on the visibility that we have at this moment in time, we will also share our thoughts on some of the trends we are seeing across our markets as we look ahead to 2027.

So first, on Slide 4, let me take you through some key messages from our results. Overall, we delivered a resilient third quarter performance despite contending with a challenging cost environment and subdued residential activity across many of our markets. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year and based on the current momentum that we see across our business, we are updating our financial guidance and now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion, representing another year of growth and value creation for CRH.

The strength of our balance sheet and cash generation capability enables us to invest for future growth while also delivering significant returns to shareholders. Today, we announced a new $6 billion share buyback program to run through the end of 2030, demonstrating our continued focus on disciplined and efficient capital allocation. Our ability to deploy capital in high-growth markets, integrate at scale and deliver unique synergies through our connected portfolio is a key differentiator for our business. We recently announced the completion of our $8.5 billion acquisition of Arcosa, a significant investment, which will reinforce CRH as the leading aggregates and critical infrastructure player in North America.

We have also invested a further $1.9 billion in 27 value-accretive acquisitions in the year-to-date. And we have an attractive pipeline of further growth opportunities in front of us, supported by our unmatched scale, connected portfolio and proven growth capabilities.

During the quarter, we launched Velocity, a focused initiative to deliver an enhanced scalable operating model for CRH. Velocity will underpin our growth objectives and enhance operational efficiency, thereby delivering a structurally higher margin business. We expect Velocity to generate $400 million of annual adjusted EBITDA run rate benefits by the end of 2028, and I will take you through that in more detail later in the presentation. Looking ahead to 2027 and based on the visibility we have across our key markets, the outlook for our business is positive, supported by our strategic alignment to growing infrastructure mega trends.

Turning to Slide 5 and our financial highlights for the third quarter. Overall, we delivered a resilient performance despite subdued residential activity and a challenging cost environment. Total revenues of $11.4 billion were 3% ahead of the prior year, reflecting good underlying demand across our key markets, positive pricing momentum and contributions from acquisitions. We experienced significant cost inflation during the quarter as sustained increases in oil prices flowed through to key inputs, particularly energy, raw materials and haulage. In response, we implemented further commercial and operational actions to mitigate the impact.

This enabled us to deliver an adjusted EBITDA of $2.7 billion, in line with the prior year, representing a margin of approximately 24%. Our third quarter margin was 80 basis points behind the prior year, are in line, excluding the impact of some one-off gains in the prior year, which demonstrates the resiliency of our connected portfolio in an inflationary environment. All of this translated into diluted earnings per share pre impairment of $2.09, which includes the impact of transformation-related costs associated with Velocity.

Now at this point, I will ask Randy to take you through the performance of each of our businesses.

Randy Lake

Thanks, Jim, and hello, everyone. Turning to Slide 7 and starting with Americas Materials Solutions, which delivered a resilient performance despite subdued residential activity and input cost pressures. Total revenues and adjusted EBITDA were 6% and 1% ahead of the prior year, reflecting positive pricing momentum, contributions from acquisitions and the benefits of our connected portfolio.

In Essential Materials third quarter revenue were 19% ahead of the prior year. Our aggregates volumes increased by 2%, while pricing was 5% ahead or plus 6% on a mix adjusted basis. Cement volumes were in line with the prior year, while the pricing declined by an average of 2%. Our performance also reflects contributions from acquisitions, particularly Eco Material, which I'm pleased to report continues to perform well with volumes and pricing both up mid-single digits compared to the prior year period.

In Road Solutions, Q3 revenues were 2% ahead of the prior year, supported by growth in asphalt and ready-mixed concrete pricing. As Jim mentioned, we experienced some significant input cost inflation during the quarter, which impacted our margin performance, and we focused on cost recovery through further commercial actions and operational measures.

While housing activity remains muted, overall underlying demand remains supported by our exposure to growing infrastructure megatrends. Transportation continues to be underpinned by federal and state funding while reindustrialization activity is being fueled by large-scale manufacturing and data center investments. So overall, a solid performance for our Americas Materials Solutions business. And looking ahead, I'm encouraged by our backlogs, which are in line with the prior year.

Next to Americas Building Solutions on Slide 8, where our third quarter performance reflects the impact of divestitures, subdued residential activity as well as the non-recurrence of a prior year gain on the sale of certain land assets. We also experienced an inflationary cost backdrop, particularly in relation to elevated haulage rates and have now implemented ongoing operational and commercial initiatives to mitigate those costs.

In our Building & Infrastructure Solutions business, we continue to experience strong growth in data center, water and energy infrastructure markets. For Americas Building Solutions overall total revenues and adjusted EBITDA were 3% and 18% behind the prior year period. Excluding the impact of land sales, third quarter adjusted EBITDA and margin were ahead of the prior year.

Moving to International Solutions on Slide 9, where our business delivered further growth and margin expansion supported by increased activity levels in certain markets, positive pricing momentum and disciplined cost control. Total revenue growth of 1% translated into a 6% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a further 110 basis points of margin expansion. In Europe, demand remains underpinned by good infrastructure and reindustrialization activity. While in Australia, our business continues to benefit from positive underlying demand, operational efficiencies and contributions from acquisitions.

Jim Mintern

Thanks, Randy. And turning to Slide 10, reflecting our third quarter performance and expectations for the fourth quarter, we are updating our financial guidance for 2026 to reflect a softer residential market, inflationary cost backdrop as well as a partial year contribution from the Arcosa acquisition. Assuming normal weather patterns for the remainder of the year and no further major dislocations in the geopolitical or macroeconomic environment, we expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $7.8 billion and $8.0 billion, net income between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share between $5.37 and $5.59, representing another year of growth and value creation for CRH.

Now at this point, I would like to discuss the continued execution of our strategy. Since setting out our strategic road map and ambitious 2030 growth targets at our Investor Day last year, we have continued to strengthen our portfolio and increase our exposure to attractive markets aligned with growing infrastructure mega trends, transportation, water and reindustrialization. We have been proactively shaping our portfolio to capture secular growth, recycling capital into higher value strategic opportunities through acquisitions such as Arcosa, Eco Material and Axius Water, as well as completing over 60 value-accretive bolt-on acquisitions and $2.1 billion of divestitures.

Alongside portfolio strengthening, we are now evolving our operating model through Velocity, a focused transformation initiative that will underpin our growth objectives and enhance operational efficiency thereby delivering a structurally higher margin business, all powered by our winning way. Together, these actions will build a better CRH and support the next era of growth and long-term value creation for our shareholders.

First, I will ask Aylwyn to take you through our recent capital allocation activities.

Aylwyn Bryan

Thanks, Jim, and hello, everybody. Turning to Slide 13 and first to M&A, where year-to-date, we have invested $10.4 billion across our 4 connected growth platforms of aggregates, cementitious, roads and water. We completed our $8.5 billion acquisition of Arcosa ahead of schedule and invested a further $1.9 billion on 27 additional value-accretive acquisitions in the year-to-date.

Now withstanding an active year so far, we have a strong pipeline of further M&A opportunities in front of us, supported by our own match scale, connected portfolio and the fragmented nature of our industry. We have also completed three strategic divestitures of non-core businesses in the year-to-date for a total consideration of $1.9 billion, demonstrating our commitment to active portfolio management and the reallocation of capital into higher-growth connected businesses.

In addition, through our third quarter, we've invested $1.2 billion in growth CapEx, leveraging our size and scale to fully capitalize on high returning, low-risk investment opportunities to expand capacity in high-growth markets, improved operational efficiency, increase automation and optimize our energy use, all of which will deliver long-term shareholder value.

Turning to Slide 14 and to shareholder returns. Following completion of the Arcosa acquisition, we are pleased to announce a new $6 billion share buyback program, which will run to the end of 2030. The share buyback program we're announcing today is in line with the $40 billion capital allocation framework we set out as part of our Investor Day last year. In addition, in line with our policy of consistent long-term dividend growth, the Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share, representing an increase of 5% on prior year.

All of this is underpinned by the strength of our balance sheet and the significant financial capacity we have at our disposal. We remain committed to maintaining our strong investment-grade credit rating which we've held for over 20 years, and we expect our leverage ratio to normalize towards approximately 2x over time. So overall, these actions highlight our continued focus on disciplined capital allocation and delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

Jim Mintern

Thanks, Aylwyn. A good summary there of our recent capital allocation activities. Turning now to Slide 15 and our recent acquisition of Arcosa.

Arcosa comprises two infrastructure-related businesses, Construction Products and Engineered Structures. Construction Products is a high-quality connected aggregates-led materials business serving 13 of the 50 largest MSAs in the United States with leading positions in Texas, New Jersey, the Southeast and other high-growth regions. And with 35 million tons of annual high-quality aggregates, it will reinforce our position as the leader in U.S. aggregates with over 265 million tons of combined annualized production.

Engineered Structures is a leading U.S. manufacturer of critical infrastructure products in the high-growth energy transmission market. This business is supported by robust long-term demand underpinned by grid modernization, electrification and data center construction. Overall, the acquisition represents a compelling growth and value creation opportunity for CRH, and I will ask Randy to provide a brief overview of the strong synergy opportunities we have identified so far.

Randy Lake

For this acquisition, we're uniquely positioned to deliver significant value creation for shareholders, thanks to our proven ability to acquire and integrate at scale. As you can see on Slide 16, we currently expect approximately $175 million of run rate cost synergies to be achieved by year 3, with $60 million anticipated in the first year of ownership. We've identified significant opportunities across operations, integration and procurement, including production efficiencies, network and logistics optimization, increased material self-supply and the streamlining of administrative and support functions. We're delighted to have Arcosa as part of the CRH family and really looking forward to updating you on our progress.

Turning to Slide 17. Let me briefly take you through our combined energy and data portfolio with Arcosa now under our ownership. As you can see on the map, we now have an extensive nationwide manufacturing footprint across the United States, which will enhance our existing connected portfolio and expand our addressable market. It is highly complementary to our existing offering. By combining our leadership positions in energy distribution and data centers with Arcosa's strength and transmission, it will enhance our capabilities in the fast-growing U.S. energy infrastructure market.

It also deepen our relationships with leading utilities, hyperscalers and telecom carriers through our early engagement in the design and specification process, allowing us to deliver more tailored, high-value solutions for their specified needs. Overall, our combined energy and data portfolio represents a scaled, high-growth platform.

Jim Mintern

Thanks, Randy. I'm turning now to Slide 18. The outlook for this business is robust as reindustrialization continues to drive demand for power, grid and data center infrastructure. For example, as a result of the structural deficit and power supply, U.S. utilities are expected to invest approximately $1.4 trillion in grid infrastructure through 2030, representing the largest grid expansion and modernization in decades.

At the same time, the rapid growth of data centers is creating significant long-term demand for power and utility infrastructure with the North American data center pipeline now exceeding $2 trillion. As a result, transmission has become the fastest-growing segment of the energy market expected to grow at approximately 10% per year through 2030 as grid capacity continues to expand. Together with our leading market positions in nationwide coverage, we are well positioned to capitalize on the strong growth opportunity.

Now at this point, I would like to turn to Velocity on Slide 20. Velocity is a 2-year initiative focused on delivering an enhanced scalable operating model for CRH. At its core, Velocity streamlines our organizational structure, fostering greater agility and entrepreneurship across our business. By delayering decision-making, we will bring management closer to our customers and end markets, enabling faster decisions, more effective execution and greater economies of scale. Overall, Velocity underpins our growth objectives and enhances operational efficiency, thereby delivering a structurally higher margin business.

And moving to Slide 21, we have set out the expected benefits. Through simplifying organizational structures and processes, optimizing core business operations through technology, AI and data and accelerating decision-making, execution and the deployment of best practices, we expect Velocity to deliver annual adjusted EBITDA run rate benefits of approximately $400 million by the end of 2028.

Reflecting, among other factors, the opportunities identified through Velocity we are pleased to update our 2030 adjusted EBITDA margin target to the upper end of our previously guided range at approximately 24%.

With that, I'll ask Randy to take you through some of the key initiatives already underway across the business.

Randy Lake

First, simplification. We are restructuring and modernizing our organizational structure to achieve permanent cost efficiencies while also delayering management levels to accelerate decision-making. This will result in a more efficient and agile organization that is closer to the customer. Next, an example of optimization. Across our global asphalt plant network, we're leveraging real-time fuel management, mix analysis and enhanced monitoring capabilities to drive more data-driven decision-making. These initiatives are expected to deliver significant natural gas fuel savings of between 10% and 15%.

And finally, acceleration, rolling out a next-generation connected quarry platform across 42 of our largest quarries, each of which produced more than 1 million tons of aggregates annually. Supported by a data-led digital performance hub, the platform enables real-time optimization across the production process from mine planning and blasting through to crushing and low down, and is expected to deliver a 7% to 10% reduction in variable cost. These are just a few examples of the initiatives underway so far, demonstrating our ability to leverage technology, data and best practices at scale, to deliver improved performance. And we look forward to updating you on our progress as Velocity is fully deployed across our business.

Jim Mintern

Thanks, Randy. Now before I hand over to Q&A, I would like to take a moment to share our thoughts on some of the trends we are seeing across our markets as we look ahead to 2027. First, to the Americas and Transportation, where we continue to see a supportive backdrop underpinned by state and federal funding with approximately 40% of the AAJ funds yet to be deployed, highlighting the significant runway we still have ahead of us. While a multiyear reauthorization of highway funding remains outstanding, we believe we are headed in the right direction, supported by continued bipartisan momentum for increased infrastructure investment in the years ahead.

In reindustrialization, we expect continued strong demand for large-scale manufacturing and data centers. With a $2 trillion pipeline of data center projects either announced or under construction in North America and the benefits of our unmatched scale and connected customer offering, we are very well positioned to benefit in this area going forward.

We also expect to see continued investment in critical infrastructure, including water, energy and data investment. As for the residential sector, we expect activity to remain subdued in the near term as a result of the ongoing affordability challenges. And as we've said in the past, this is not a demand issue, and we believe the long-term fundamentals in this market remain very attractive, supported by favorable demographics and significant levels of underbuilt. In our international business, we expect positive momentum to continue across Western Europe, driven by good growth in Ireland, the Nordics and Spain, stability in the U.K. and France and some early signs of residential improvement in certain markets.

In Eastern Europe, our businesses are well positioned to benefit from a significant pipeline of infrastructure investments supported by EU funding programs. In Australia, the outlook also remains favorable, underpinned by the ongoing infrastructure activity and major project work. Regarding the pricing environment, we expect positive momentum to continue across our markets. So in summary, notwithstanding a subdued residential market, the overall trend is positive for our business heading into next year.

And turning now to Slide 25. CRH will enter 2027 from a position of strength. We are taking decisive actions to recover the impact of cost inflation that we have seen in the second half of the year, and expect the benefits of further commercial and operational initiatives to deliver positive price/cost spread in 2027.

We will also benefit from the full year contribution from Arcosa and the associated synergies. Through Velocity, we are focused on building a better CRH, evolving our operating model and raising our margin ambitions. We have announced a new $6 billion share buyback program to 2030, underpinned by our superior financial capacity and cash generation, and we continue to see a healthy pipeline of acquisition opportunities alongside continued portfolio optimization initiatives. Together, all of this supports delivering further growth and value creation for our shareholders and reinforcing our position as the leading compounder of capital in our industry.

So that concludes our presentation today. I will now hand you back to the moderator to coordinate the Q&A session of our call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

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Angel Castillo Malpica

Jim, I was just hoping you could maybe talk a little bit more about the reasons for the kind of fiscal year '26 guidance cut. And maybe just kind of unpack a little bit more kind of the drivers, particularly maybe with the weakness in Americas Material Solutions. And as you think about kind of the range that you provided, just what would get you to the low end versus the high end of the guide.

Jim Mintern

Angel, yes, maybe I might ask Aylwyn to come back at the end, maybe just to comment on some of the puts and takes in the guidance we've reissued. The revised guidance this morning, Angel, really reflects the Q3 performance that we reported and also our estimates for the last quarter of the year. It's built in on what was a very strong first half, right, which -- I think showed the benefits and the resilience of the connected portfolio, and we actually delivered margin expansion through the Q2 and H1. However, since we entered July, we've seen a sharp and sustained increase in energy costs, particularly diesel. But also other costs, including haulage distribution.

We've also noticed and seen a residential demand has softened further across the U.S., and that's really, again, the backdrop of rising interest rates. So in broad terms, this guidance reflects the impacts from diesel, haulage, other related raw material costs and assumes in the Q forecast that we remain at these elevated levels of energy for the fourth quarter.

Now specifically on the question on American Materials, obviously, these impacts were most pronounced in the U.S. material business throughout Q3. Notwithstanding that, we delivered a solid underlying performance against what was a very challenging cost backdrop, from actually the low point of energy prices in kind of early mid to July, we've seen a sharp increase with diesel up 40% in a short period of time. And that has had a knock-on impact into other areas such as haulage.

Now for us, at this time of the year, it's difficult to recover that kind of cost inflation late in the year and also in what are some of our busiest activity months. I mentioned it also residential weakness was also a factor. Activity softened throughout the summer and impacted volumes across many of our markets. And we felt really the combined cost invasion and residential impact across all our products. We felt that across the AMS business in the quarter.

Now despite that, right, when you look at it, encouraged by the activity we see on the key infrastructure and non-res markets, our roads business is busy, and continues to perform really well, and we see good momentum in reindustrialization, particularly in the data center space.

Now what will be done to, I guess, address that inflationary cost backdrop. We're taking decisive actions, adding fuel surcharges and pushing pricing late in the season. And we see that in terms of our mix adjusted aggregates price was 6% up in the quarter.

I'm confident when we look across the business and across the group, our teams are executing well and get in the top of what is, in effect, a temporary timing issue. So we're well positioned heading into '27. Our backlogs are in good shape, and we expect a positive price/cost spread and a return to margin expansion in '27.

Maybe Aylwyn, do you want to comment on the...

Aylwyn Bryan

Angel, so maybe just a couple of comments on scope. As you'll be aware, it has been an active year in terms of M&A and investments for us. So with $10.4 billion of acquisitions year-to-date and $1.9 billion of divestments. So lots of puts and takes there, but we expect the overall net incremental contribution from acquisitions for the full year 2026 to be in the region of $300 million. Obviously, that includes the contribution from Arcosa for the final 2 months of the year in what is a seasonally quiet quarter for the business.

Other than that, as Jim mentioned, we are assuming energy constant at the current levels. And then, I guess, finally, in terms of the quarter in general, as you'll be aware, quarter 4 is a smaller quarter for us, and so it can be impacted by weather. If we get an early winter or vice versa, if we get a mild benign winter. So guidance assumes normal weather patterns.

Angel Castillo Malpica

Very helpful. And I know it's a little bit early here maybe into fiscal year '27, but just I wanted to touch on the comments you made about commercial actions or initiatives towards the end of the year to maybe try to recover some of this cost inflation into next year. So if you could comment maybe just -- as we think about the price that is required to ultimately recover this and return back to kind of price cost growth into next year? What kind of pricing actions should we be expecting across the aggregates and cement or realized price into next year?

Jim Mintern

Yes. Sure, angel. I'll maybe give a kind of bigger macro picture backdrop, and I might ask Randy, maybe just to comment specifically on some of the kind of assumptions and what we're thinking on volume and prices as we enter '27. Overall, if you look at it, the underlying demand backdrop is positive, right? And we got good pricing momentum as we're exiting 2026. So if you look at the building blocks, U.S. infrastructure remains positive, right? We have a continued resolution which is going to be in place in mid-December.

We've got good visibility on our backlogs and they're solid. And actually, the state and federal funding remains favorable. Actually, state tax receipts are up kind of mid-single digits in the first half of '26, right? And already, the kind of highway reauthorization conversations are underway, and we're exiting this year but about 40% of the AAJ still unspent. I touched on it. We're busy in the reindustrialization space and demand remains robust. We've got good backlogs, good visibility across a large multiyear projects, not just data centers, but complex manufacturing, chip plants, energy and LNG plants that gives us really good visibility, and I think we'll see continued growth in that space into 2027.

U.S. residential remains subdued. And we think that's going to be continued softening through '26. It's not a demand issue. It's an affordability issue. But the 30 year fixed now at 7.4%, we don't really see any res recovery probably until mid-2028 at best.

Maybe moving across the international business, there's a number of drivers for growth in 2027 across the international business. We've got very similar end to end market dynamics across all our international footprint. We got strong infrastructure demand across Western and Eastern Europe and Australia. Positive reindustrialization demand across our footprint, strong data center build-out across that footprint, but also particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, defense spending is notable, right, in terms of the activity levels across the eastern part of our portfolio. And we're seeing some signs of residential recovery in some of our key markets.

Now we're operating in an inflationary backdrop. And as we enter '27, we kind of think that we're looking at mid-single digits in terms of overall cost inflation. But maybe on volumes and prices, specifically, Randy, would you like to give color?

Randy Lake

Yes. I guess, just building on that. So I think you did a good job kind of laying out the overall demand environment, which continues to be pretty positive. Coming out of Q3, I think Jim mentioned it good pricing progression in aggregate 5%, total 6% on a mix-adjusted basis. As I look into next year and we get pretty good visibility, obviously, because of the backlog of our work. 2027 is going to be an exceptionally strong year in the aggregate side of the equation. Obviously, with a full year contribution of Arcosa that's going to bring about really a positive momentum there. I'd say more broadly, the market is probably flat to slightly positive in regards to demand.

But from a pricing standpoint, the expectation we have is for high single-digit pricing as we get into 2027. That work is already underway and beginning to make its way through the marketplace. I think just building on that, when you look at our cementitious portfolio, again, the demand drivers are in place. The visibility is good. We're looking at volumes up low single digits in the U.S. and pricing to follow in low single digits for the cementitious, which would be inclusive our Escrow business and the Eco Material business. So again, a strong contribution as we look into next year.

The international, Jim called that out as well. They're building off another strong year. You saw the performance in Q3. The demand environment is such that I think the volume expectations there for cement would be low single-digit volume growth and mid-single-digit pricing into '27 for our international cement business. So all in all, when you factor that in, the expectations for us to have margin expansion as we get into '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Trey Grooms with Stephens.

Trey Grooms

So I guess shifting gears a little bit to capital allocation with the recent closing of Arcosa, now the announcement of the new $6 billion share buyback program. Can you talk about your capital allocation priorities looking into '27? And on the buyback specifically, could you help us understand the expected cadence and timing of the buyback? How you expect to balance M&A with the buyback? And why now?

Jim Mintern

Trey, and I might ask Aylwyn maybe to come back to the specifics around the new $6 billion buyback that we announced this morning. But overall heading into '27, there's no real change in our capital allocation framework, right? We remain disciplined and value-focused and as we say, every capital allocation decision we make is look through that lens of maximizing shareholder value. This year has been a busy year, right, at $10.3 billion in terms of acquisition, 27 value-accretive deals, but also almost $2 billion of divestments, right? So a good year in terms of optimizing the portfolio.

Our M&A pipeline remains strong. We've got attractive opportunities across all our connected growth platforms, but we're going to remain disciplined in terms of valuations and returns. That healthy pipeline brings optionality, and with optionality comes disciplined, and that's very important for us. Our balance sheet level gives us flexibility. And just to put it in context, Trey, every $1 billion of kind of bolt-on deals is about 0.1x on our leverage as we enter '27. And maybe just to remind, we set out in our Capital Markets Day in 2025, we highlighted a $40 billion financial capacity through 2030, and we're allocating about 70% of that to the growth side of the equation and 30% in terms of shareholder returns.

Aylwyn Bryan

Trey, just following on from the completion of Arcosa, I guess we're also pleased to announce the multi near $6 billion share buyback, which will run through to the end of 2030. And as Jim outlined, that's fully aligned with the $40 billion capital allocation framework that we announced as part of last year's Capital Markets Day.

As well shareholder returns, obviously continues to be a really important part of the overall capital allocation priorities. And one commodity is the progressive dividend policy with over 40 years of growing dividend that we're very proud of. And in addition, to date, we've had a very successful share buyback program. We've retired close to 25% of our stock at an average price of just over $50. So a very, very successful program to date.

And buyback remains an efficient way for us to deploy capital. We believe our stock represents a clear value at these multiples, and does not represent the true potential of CRH. And so I guess in that context, we expect to be active in the market in the immediate future, and we'll update you as progress in terms of how we're doing as part of the Q4 results.

And then maybe just finally, if we step back, we remain committed to our investment-grade credit rating, which we've retained for over 20 years, and this is a really important part of our balance sheet strength. And saying that, CRH is a cash generation platform of scale. And so we continue to have capital available. And as Jim mentioned, we will continue to use that optionality to drive maximum value for our shareholders.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrian Huerta with JPMorgan.

Adrian Huerta

Jim, can you elaborate a bit more on this new Velocity program, I'm probably giving you additional details for examples, why now? And any additional color on implementing these cost initiatives and the phasing of the benefits?

Jim Mintern

Yes. Sure, Adrian. Good to hear you. Again, I might ask Aylwyn at the end just to come back in terms of size and velocity, the kind of run rate we're seeing and the cost implementation in '27 and into '28. But -- yes, it's been something that we've been working on for some time, Adrian. And it's underway and it's really something that's been enabled by the CRH winning way that we set out at last year's Capital Markets Day. .

Now on that day, I clearly set out our updated strategy and our vision and indeed our capital allocation priorities for CRH. And I think we've been really successful executing on that strategy over the last 12 months, right? We continue to work on optimizing our portfolio. As I mentioned, $2 billion of divestments and also recycling that capital into the likes of Arcosa, into Axius and Eco Material of last year. And I think you should expect us to continue to work on optimizing our portfolio as we enter into 2027.

Velocity is the next step, right? It was kind of a natural evolution of our making model. And what's it about? It's about building a better CRH, right? CRH is the leading and largest company in our space. And size matters, but it's actually it's scale that ultimately drives shareholder value, not size and it's that focus on scale. And Velocity maybe as well, just to clarify, is incremental to our 2030 targets we gave last September, and we're raising our ambition for the company across the entire group.

You kind of said why now, it's really the coming together of a number of factors, right? We've had a very active period of M&A over the last 2 years. We've also had the acquisition of Eco Material, Axius and now Arcosa. And as we planned and integrated those businesses, it really gave us, I guess, food for thought and acted as a catalyst for us to rethink our organization structure and also our operating model.

Those kind of events, together with really leveraging the latest technology is really what's enabled us to deliver the scale benefits. And the benefits are coming across a number of headings. Randy mentioned it earlier on the call, he just gave an overview of some of the projects that are already underway. But they're mainly coming from a combination of labor savings and efficiency and cost savings, right?

What we're doing is that we're simplifying delayering the organization, whilst critically retaining our unique entrepreneurial customer-focused mindset. By simplifying and delayering, we're actually -- we're bringing our senior managers closer to the frontline operators and crucially closer to the customer, and that's going to deliver quicker and more efficient decision-making. It's a group-wide initiative, one that's going to bring us, as we said, to the top end of our guidance in terms of margin for 2030, which is around 24%, and one that's really going to underpin the next era of growth for CRH.

Aylwyn Bryan

Yes. And then just in terms of the benefits and costs. So we're confident of delivering at least $400 million in terms of the annual run rate benefits by the end of 2028. And maybe just on phasing of that, we expect approximately 40% to be delivered in 2027 and then the balance by the end of 2028.

In order to deliver those $400 million of run rate benefits, as you'd expect, we will incur some onetime transformation costs in the region of $400 million as well, and approximately 2/3 of those costs will be incurred in H2 '26 and 2027, and then the final 1/3 across 2028.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group.

Kathryn Thompson

Certainly, a lot of focus on higher energy cost and you outlined the impact with diesel. But looking forward, when you are planning forward, particularly heading into the winter months and given current elevated oil prices, how does this impact your winter fill program as you enter the purchasing season? How does that compare this year versus prior seasons? And strategically, how do you think about managing or expanding this program or your winter fill programs going forward?

Randy Lake

Yes. Maybe I'll take that. Good to hear from you. Maybe just taking a quick step back. The reason behind kind of this broad network of terminals across the U.S. is really around the surety of supply. We have the capacity to house about half of our yearly demand in our winter fill program. Critical element gives us a competitive advantage. Obviously, I mean, we're the -- as you know, the largest road paper in the U.S. north of 5x the #2 player. So it really offers a compelling competitive advantage, not just from the procurement side, but the ability to customize mixes in the marketplace.

So it's a critical element that we want to make sure we leverage that size and scale. When we came out of -- coming out of '26, it was a very successful business. We were able to secure product at good pricing and that made its way through the system.

When I look at the winter fill program in general, it begins typically in November runs through April. And as we saw coming, certainly you're well aware, in the summer, as we saw liquid costs kind of rising with the movement of oil, actually, something unique has happened as of late, right? The underlying demand and increase of output from the refiners to deal with the demand for diesel has created really a supply-demand imbalance, which is creating an opportunity for us.

So as I look going into the balance of this year, one, we'll get the product quantity that we need. And because of that scale and national reach of our terminaling network, we're going to be able to get a cost advantage. So when I look into 2027, it's going to be another year of margin progression. We're going to see profit improvement in that line of business as well as our asphalt line of business.

And then just building on your comment, I think that's something when you look at, and Aylwyn called it out in terms of the capital available to deploy at scale. The continuation of the expansion of our asphalt footprint in the U.S. will follow the expansion of our build-out of our asphalt network. So it's a critical enabler and one we continue to invest in. But fundamentally, as we look into '27, our margins will expand.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Sheridan with Davy.

Colin Sheridan

My question is around Arcosa. I'm just wondering how your thinking has evolved around the company's Engineered Structures business and how you see it fitting in with the existing group businesses? And also whether or not there's been any divestitures or at point of note on the closure of that?

Jim Mintern

Colin, yes, listen, delighted to see Arcosa close at the end of last week. We're just getting our feet under the table at this point. Day 1 was just actually Monday of this week across all of the Arcosa operations. We obtained the regulatory approval kind of ahead of our expectations, timing-wise, with some very minor conditions, right, to divest a few asphalt plants, which were not material to the transaction, right?

What has done, Arcosa overall, when you look at it, has really strengthened our exposure to critical infrastructure and has significantly enhanced the quality of the portfolio.

You mentioned the Engineered Structures, right? It's actually the fastest-growing part of the Arcosa portfolio. And it's also going to be the fastest growing platform within CRH, and we expect kind of top line growth of double digits for the next 3 to 4 years, right? Right now, because of the demand and the build-out of the transmission network, we're looking at strong order backlogs with lead times out to 12 months across the engineered structured business in Arcosa.

And when combined with our existing activities that we have in this space, it significantly expands our energy and data offering, right? It's deepening our relationships with the utility customers that we're already working with and serving. It's creating a leading nationwide platform serving attractive growth markets linked to energy infra electrification and grid investment, right?

And it's also interesting in that 90% of the funding into this space is privately funded, right? More broadly, when you stand back and look at Arcosa in total, what it's done, it's strengthened our aggregates position and reaffirmed our leading aggregate position in the U.S. and it's expanding our critical infrastructure exposure. And it really, as we get into it and kind of early week 1, it gives really significant opportunities for us as we integrate the business into the wider CRH connected portfolio.

Operator

We have time for one more question, and that question comes from the line of David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

Unknown Analyst

This is Joe Nolan on for David. I just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the infrastructure outlook. With the U.S. midterm elections around the corner, can you provide an update on Highway Bill reauthorization and infrastructure funding backdrop as we head into 2027?

Randy Lake

Yes. Maybe I'll just kick off with that in terms of what we're seeing. I think first and Jim did a good job outlining what we see today, right? The current IIJ, 40% of that funding is yet to be deployed. So there's a tail as we called out in regards to that funding. I think probably an important element is the role, obviously, that states have played, they continue to play. They account for 60% of the underlying investment in the infrastructure. That's really been a flip over the last 10 years. I think the way that they focus on that, the way that they apply the resources to project has given them comfort in terms of outlook, and it's given us comfort as well.

If you -- for us, when we look at underlying activity, we look obviously at bidding on a weekly basis, and we see that on par with last year. So a continuation of the deployment of not only federal but state funding, we're winning our fair share. So our backlogs are a very similar position to where we were last year, which is encouraging.

There is a -- we're under a continuing resolution. I'd say that's more the norm than the exception. We've seen that with every piece of multiyear highway legislation dating back into the early '90s. So it's not an unusual position for us to be in. I think what's encouraging, though, is to continue bipartisan support in and around the need for investment in infrastructure.

And what we've seen come out of the house with the BA250 is encouraging, right? It's a return to kind of core infrastructure. It's a real focus on kind of permitting delays. It's creating better efficiency from the deployment of the capital in regards to the investments, and it's beginning to address a funding mechanism. So there's a lot to like in the BA250. We'll see what comes out of the Senate at the end of November. But overall, when we talk to people on Capitol Hill, there's alignment around the need for underlying investments. So when we look at the outlook for the year going into next year, we're very positive just based upon our backlogs and the underlying bidding activity.

Jim Mintern

Yes. Thanks, Randy. And maybe just to build on that, right? So if we step back for a moment, I think as we enter into '27, the broader outlook remains positive, right? Infrastructure is strong, and our backlogs are supportive. Our reindustrialization, we called it out continues to drive significant project activity, and we see good momentum carrying into 2027.

Residential is expected to remain subdued, particularly in the U.S. And the pricing backdrop heading into 2027 is supportive, right?

When you stem back overall, looking into '27, CRH is in good shape, right? Our Arcosa deal is closed. So we have a full 12 months clean contribution from Arcosa. Velocity is underway and is already delivering benefits, which is going to underpin our future growth. We're building a better CRH, one that's going to have structurally higher margins. We're pleased today to announce the recommencement of our new $6 billion share buyback program. Now but as we enter 2027, our focus is really about execution on our strategy, execution and Velocity, integrating Arcosa and delivering on the synergies, right? So putting it all together, I'm confident that the building blocks are in place to deliver another year of growth as we enter into 2027.

Well, that's all we have time for today. Thank you for all your attention. And as always, if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team. We look forward to talking to you again in February next year when we will report our full year results for 2026. Thank you. Have a good day, and stay safe.

Operator

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