버터필드(NTB) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콜: 순이자마진(NIM) 개선, CIBC 캐리비안 인수 순항
버터필드는 2026년 3분기 순이익 6,100만 달러, 코어 순이익 6,420만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 순이자이익은 9,720만 달러로 증가했고, 순이자마진(NIM)은 2.76%로 소폭 상승했다. 비이자이익은 6,480만 달러를 기록했다. 약 5억 달러 규모의 예금 유출이 예상됨에 따라 예금 규모는 120억~125억 달러 범위로 수렴할 것으로 전망된다. 무수익여신은 1억 1,960만 달러로 증가했으나, 경영진은 충분한 담보로 인해 신용 손실은 발생하지 않을 것으로 예상하고 있다. CIBC 카리브해 인수 건은 규제 당국 승인 등을 거쳐 2027년 상반기에 마무리될 예정이다.
핵심 요약
- 버터필드(Butterfield)는 2026년 3분기 순이익이 6,100만 달러(주당 1.50달러)를 기록했다고 발표했습니다. 코어 순이익은 6,420만 달러(주당 1.58달러)였습니다.
- 순이자이익은 전분기 대비 160만 달러, 전년 동기 대비 440만 달러 증가한 9,720만 달러를 기록했습니다. 순이자마진(NIM)은 전분기 대비 2bp 상승한 2.76%를 기록했습니다.
- 비이자이익은 카드 거래량 증가, 외환 거래 호조, 일회성 계약 갱신 수수료에 힘입어 6,480만 달러로 증가했습니다. 수수료 기반 매출은 전체 매출의 40%를 차지했습니다.
- 예상되는 약 5억 달러 규모의 신탁 및 기업 청산 예금이 대차대조표에서 유출되면서, 예금 규모는 경영진이 이전에 전망한 120억~125억 달러 범위로 수렴할 것으로 예상됩니다.
- 무수익여신(Nonaccrual loans)은 주로 채널 제도 및 영국의 주택용 부동산 익스포저로 인해 1억 1,960만 달러(총 대출의 2.7%)로 증가했습니다. 경영진은 해당 담보물이 충분히 확보되어 있어 신용 손실은 발생하지 않을 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔습니다.
- CIBC 카리브해(CIBC Caribbean) 인수 건은 차질 없이 진행 중이며, 규제 당국의 승인 및 기타 거래 요건 충족을 전제로 2027년 상반기에 최종 마무리될 예정입니다.
주요 재무 데이터
| 지표 | 2026년 3분기 | 변동 및 맥락 |
|---|---|---|
| 순이익 | 6,100만 달러 | 주당 1.50달러 |
| 코어 순이익 | 6,420만 달러 | 주당 1.58달러 |
| 평균보통주자본이익률(ROACE) | 21.3% | 보고된 수익성 지표 |
| 코어 평균유형보통주자본이익률(Core ROTCE) | 25.0% | 코어 수익성 지표 |
| 신용손실충당금 적립 전 순이자이익 | 9,720만 달러 | 전분기 대비 160만 달러, 전년 동기 대비 440만 달러 증가 |
| 순이자마진(NIM) | 2.76% | 전분기 대비 2bp, 전년 동기 대비 3bp 상승 |
| 예금 조달 비용 | 1.27% | 전분기 대비 2bp 상승 |
| 비이자이익 | 6,480만 달러 | 전분기 대비 140만 달러, 전년 동기 대비 360만 달러 증가 |
| 코어 영업효율성비율 | 57.8% | 경영진의 경기순환목표인 60% 미만 |
| 총자산 | 143억 달러 | 2025년 말 141억 달러에서 증가 |
| 예금 | 129억 달러 | 평균 예금 잔액은 131억 달러 |
| 대출 | 44억 달러 | 전분기 대비 대체로 보합세 |
| 투자자산 | 56억 달러 | 전분기 대비 대체로 보합세 |
| 무수익여신 | 1억 1,960만 달러 | 총 대출의 2.7%, 2분기 2.2%에서 상승 |
| 대손충당금 | 2,700만 달러 | 총 대출의 0.6% |
| 순대손상각률 | 0.02% | 낮은 수준 유지 |
| 분기 배당금 | 주당 0.50달러 | 이사회 승인 |
사업 및 영업 실적
고금리 유가증권 재투자와 트레저리 포트폴리오의 수익성 개선이 순이자이익을 뒷받침했습니다. 다만 이러한 긍정적 효과는 대출 수익률 하락과 조달 비용의 소폭 상승으로 일부 상쇄되었습니다. 평균 대출 잔액은 소폭 증가한 반면, 평균 투자 잔액은 전반적으로 변동이 없었습니다.
비이자이익은 은행업 및 외환 수익 증가의 수혜를 입었습니다. 은행업 수익에는 카드 거래 증가와 소액의 일회성 계약 갱신 수수료가 반영되었으며, 외환 수익은 고객 거래량 증가가 견인했습니다.
코어 비이자비용은 전분기 대비 3.5% 증가했습니다. 이는 2분기에 일부 기간만 반영되었던 R&H 건지(R&H Guernsey) 인수 관련 비용이 3분기에는 분기 전체로 반영된 데다, 퇴직 관련 비용 및 기타 영업비용이 증가한 영향입니다.
버터필드의 대출 포트폴리오는 소구권이 있는 주택담보대출에 계속 집중되어 있습니다. 이 중 주택담보대출 비율(LTV)이 70% 이하인 비중이 78%를 차지했습니다. 56억 달러 규모의 미국 국채 및 기관채 포트폴리오는 전량 AA 이상 등급으로 구성되어 있습니다.
장기 금리 상승으로 매도가능증권 포트폴리오의 평가손실이 2분기 1억 670만 달러에서 1억 8,730만 달러로 확대되었습니다. 조기 상환 예상 속도 둔화와 미국 국채 수익률 곡선의 경사화(스티프닝) 영향으로 포트폴리오 듀레이션은 4.9년으로 늘어났습니다.
경영진 가이던스
경영진은 단기적으로 순이자마진과 순이자이익이 비교적 보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상합니다. 예금 유출은 예금 비용의 소폭 상승과 함께 투자자산 및 단기 현금의 자산 리프라이싱으로 상쇄될 것으로 전망됩니다. 경영진은 높은 금리 수준과 2027년 추가 리프라이싱 가능성에 힘입어 중기적으로 긍정적인 흐름을 보일 것으로 관망하고 있습니다.
분기별 코어 비이자비용은 CIBC 카리브해 거래가 마감될 때까지 9,300만~9,500만 달러 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 핼리팩스로의 인력 이전 효과가 점차 줄어들고 있으나 소규모 효율화 기회는 여전히 남아 있다고 밝혔습니다.
내재선도금리 기준으로 경영진은 매도가능증권 포트폴리오와 관련된 기타포괄손익누계액(AOCI) 손실이 12개월 동안 약 21%, 24개월 동안 약 42% 개선될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
CIBC 카리브해 거래는 2027년 상반기에 마감될 것으로 예상됩니다. 규제 당국 승인 신청서가 제출되었고 통합 팀이 가동 중이며, 버터필드는 인수 자금 조달을 위한 채권 발행을 준비하고 있습니다.
경영진은 추정 합산(pro forma) 기준으로 합병 은행의 총자산이 약 290억 달러, 예금이 250억 달러, 유형보통주자본이 17억 달러에 달하고 런레이트 이익은 4억 달러를 넘어설 것이라고 밝혔습니다.
리스크 및 관전 포인트
분기 말 이후 수주일 이내에 약 5억 달러 규모의 사모 신탁 및 기업 청산 예금이 유출될 것으로 예상됩니다. 경영진은 이러한 유출로 인해 대차대조표 규모가 줄어들 것으로 예상하면서도, 초기에는 38억 달러 규모의 현금 및 단기 유가증권으로 자금을 충당할 것이라고 밝혔습니다.
무수익여신 증가의 주된 요인은 채널 제도 및 영국의 주택용 부동산 익스포저였습니다. 경영진은 런던 포트폴리오의 유동성 압박과 거시경제적 불확실성, 영국의 세제 및 규제 변화 관련 불확실성을 원인으로 꼽았습니다.
이번 인수는 여러 국가의 규제 당국 승인을 받아야 합니다. 버터필드는 바하마와 바베이도스 내 CIBC 카리브해의 국채 익스포저에 대해 시장성과 현지 정부에 대한 약정 등을 포함해 검토를 진행하고 있습니다.
애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용
- 예금 유출 및 순이자이익: 경영진은 5억 달러 규모의 예금 유출이 주로 현금에서 이루어질 것으로 예상합니다. 대차대조표 축소에도 불구하고 자산 리프라이싱과 높은 금리에 힘입어 단기 순이자이익은 대체로 보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상됩니다.
- CIBC 카리브해 대차대조표 전략: 버터필드는 인수 대상의 투자 포트폴리오를 검토 중이며, 해당 포트폴리오는 주로 비교적 듀레이션이 짧은 미국 국채로 구성되어 있습니다. 구조조정 관련 결정은 최종 인수 시점에 임박하여 이루어질 예정입니다.
- 인수 후 성장 기회: 경영진은 중장기적으로 리테일 뱅킹, 주택담보대출, 담보대출 및 가맹점 인수(merchant acquiring) 사업을 확대할 가능성이 있다고 봅니다. 또한 신중한 접근 방식을 취하면서도 보다 빠르게 성장하는 인수 대상 지역에서 시장 점유율을 확대할 여지가 있다고 보고 있습니다.
- 모기지 수요 및 영국 익스포저: 경영진은 대출 환경이 경쟁적이라고 설명하며 대출 금리의 광범위한 인상은 예상하지 않는다고 밝혔습니다. 경영진은 런던 모기지 포트폴리오의 유동성 압박과 불확실성을 지속적으로 모니터링하고 있습니다.
- 비용 관리: 버터필드는 분기별 코어 비용 런레이트 9,300만~9,500만 달러 달성을 확신하고 있으며, 이와 별도로 잠재적 거래 시너지 효과를 산정하고 있습니다.
실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문
전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록
경영진 발표
Operator
Good morning. My name is Drew, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call for The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Noah Fields, Butterfield's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Noah Fields
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we will be reviewing Butterfield's third quarter 2026 financial results. On the call, I'm joined by Michael Collins, Butterfield's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Schrum, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Bri Hidalgo, Chief Risk Officer. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the call up for a question-and-answer session. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our third quarter 2026 results.
The press release and financial statements, along with a slide presentation that we will refer to during our remarks on this call, are available on the Investor Relations section of our website at butterfieldgroup.com. Before I turn the call over to Michael Collins, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussions will refer to certain non-GAAP measures which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance.
For a reconciliation of these measures to U.S. GAAP, please refer to the earnings press release and slide presentation. Today's call and associated materials may also contain certain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these risks can be found in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Michael Collins.
Michael Collins
Thank you, Noah, and thanks to everyone joining the call today. Our third quarter performance reflects the strength and resilience of Butterfield, the depth of our client relationships and the disciplined execution of our strategy, all of which position us well for continued long-term growth. Butterfield is a leading offshore bank and wealth manager with strong market positions in Bermuda and the Cayman Islands, complemented by a growing retail banking presence in the Channel Islands.
We also provide wealth management services to high-net-worth individuals, families and institutions through offices in the Bahamas, Switzerland, Singapore and the U.K. In the U.K., we originate residential mortgages for high-net-worth clients for properties in Prime Central London. I will now turn to highlights from the quarter on Page 6.
Third quarter results reflected continued strength across the franchise with net income of $61 million or $1.50 per share and core net income of $64.2 million or $1.58 per share. Profitability remained strong with a return on average common equity of 21.3% and core return on average tangible common equity of 25%. Net interest margin improved by 2 basis points to 2.76% despite a 2-basis point increase in deposit costs to 1.27%.
We also continued to return capital to shareholders through our quarterly cash dividend of $0.50 per share. Finally, we continue to make progress on the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean with closing expected in the first half of 2027. We will provide some additional details about the progress later in the call. I will now turn the call over to Michael Schrum for more details on the third quarter.
Michael Schrum
Thank you, Michael, and good morning. On Slide 7, we provide a summary of net interest income and net interest margin. In the third quarter, we reported net interest income before provision for credit losses of $97.2 million, an increase of $1.6 million from the prior quarter or an increase of $4.4 million from the third quarter in 2025. The net interest margin of 2.76% was 2 basis points higher than the prior quarter and 3 basis points higher than the third quarter of 2025.
Net interest income and margin benefited from continued reinvestment into higher-yielding securities and stronger treasury portfolio returns, although these gains were partly offset by lower loan yields and slightly higher funding costs. Balance sheet volumes remained stable during the quarter with average investment balances largely unchanged and average loan balances increasing modestly compared to the second quarter.
Slide 8 provides a summary of noninterest income, which continued to trend favorably, increasing $1.4 million to $64.8 million in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the third quarter of 2025, noninterest income increased $3.6 million. The quarter's improvement was due primarily to higher banking revenues and stronger foreign exchange activity.
Banking revenues benefited from increased card transaction volumes as well as a modest nonrecurring contract fee renewal, while foreign exchange revenue reflected higher client volumes. Fee-based revenue represented 40% of total revenues during the quarter, comparing favorably to historical peer averages and highlighting the quality and stability of our overall earnings.
On Slide 9, we present core noninterest expenses. Core non-interest expenses increased 3.5% from the prior quarter, reflecting the full quarter of operating expenses from R&H Guernsey acquisition compared with the partial quarter in the second quarter. Excluding acquisition-related costs, expenses were also impacted by higher salaries and benefits, primarily due to staff departure costs as well as increased other operating expenses.
Our core efficiency ratio was 57.8%, remaining below our through-cycle target of 60% and highlighting our continued focus on expense management. We continue to expect quarterly core noninterest expenses to be in the range of $93 million to $95 million until we close the CIBC Caribbean transaction.
Slide 10 shows that Butterfield's balance sheet remains strong and highly liquid with total assets increasing to $14.3 billion from $14.1 billion at year-end 2025. Growth was driven primarily by higher deposit balances, while loan and investment balances remained relatively stable. Deposits increased to $12.9 billion and average deposits rose to $13.1 billion from $12.6 billion at the prior year-end, reflecting continued client confidence.
Deposits remained elevated at the quarter end, but we have received notice prior to quarter end that approximately $500 million worth of deposits would exit within weeks. This represents a handful of private trust and corporate liquidation fund deposits in a mix of demand and interest-bearing accounts. This would bring the deposit levels to our previously estimated range of $12 billion to $12.5 billion, where we expect for it to remain.
Loans ended the quarter at $4.4 billion and investments at $5.6 billion, both largely unchanged from the prior quarter, highlighting the stability of our balance sheet. We also maintain a conservative risk profile with risk-weighted assets representing just 27.3% of total assets, reflecting low risk density on our balance sheet.
On Slide 11, we show that Butterfield's asset quality remained acceptable in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the continued strength of our conservative loan portfolio and high-quality investment holdings. Our $4.4 billion loan portfolio remains heavily weighted towards full recourse residential mortgages with 78% of those mortgages carrying loan-to-value ratios below 70%. This reflects the conservative underwriting standards and low risk profile of our loan book.
Our $5.6 billion U.S. Treasury and agency investment portfolio also maintained its exceptional credit quality with 100% of holdings rated AA or better, demonstrating the strength and liquidity of the investment portfolio.
Credit performance remained solid despite the increase in nonaccrual loans to $119.6 million or 2.7% of gross loans, up from 2.2% in the prior quarter, driven primarily by residential real estate exposures in the Channel Islands and U.K. segment. Importantly, these facilities remain well secured, and we do not expect any credit losses. The allowance for credit losses improved modestly to $27 million, representing 0.6% of total loans, while the net charge-off ratio was low at 0.02%.
On Slide 12, we present the average cash and securities balances with a summary of interest rate sensitivity. Our investment portfolio remained conservatively positioned during the quarter with duration increasing to 4.9 years, reflecting slower expected prepayments on fixed rate investments and a steeper U.S. treasury yield curve. Our balance sheet continues to be asset sensitive, although interest rate sensitivity has moderated from the prior quarter due to lower treasury interbank placements used to manage short-term deposit flows.
Our asset sensitivity continues to be above that of the U.S. peer group. As expected, the increase in longer-term interest rates resulted in higher unrealized losses within the available-for-sale portfolio, which increased to $187.3 million at the quarter end from $106.7 million in the second quarter. Based on current implied forward rates, we expect the unrealized losses within accumulated other comprehensive income related to the AFS portfolio to improve by approximately 21% over the next 12 months and 42% over the next 24 months.
Slide 13 summarizes regulatory and leverage capital levels. The Board of Directors has once again approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. TCE to TA continues to be conservatively above our targeted range of 6% to 6.5%. I will now turn the call over to Bri Hidalgo to provide an update on the CIBC Caribbean transaction. Bri?
Bri Hidalgo
Thank you, Michael. Turning to the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean. The transaction remains on track with regulatory approvals, financing activities and integration planning progressing as expected. During the quarter, we received shareholder approval for the acquisition and submitted the required regulatory applications. We have continued our engagement with employees, clients, governments and our regulators across our markets, including employee town halls and advancing stakeholder outreach efforts.
In parallel, dedicated integration teams have been established and are actively planning for a successful transition and realization of the strategic benefits of the transaction. We are also preparing for a debt issuance to support the acquisition. Overall, we remain on schedule for regulatory approvals and anticipate closing in the first half of 2027. I will now turn the call back to Michael Collins.
Michael Collins
Thank you, Bri. We remain enthusiastic and optimistic about the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean. We believe the combination will result in a stronger regional banking franchise with enhanced capabilities across corporate banking, personal banking and wealth management, creating the leading independent bank in the Atlantic and English-speaking Caribbean. Together, we will be better positioned to meet the evolving needs of our clients while delivering benefits to all stakeholders.
With approximately $29 billion in assets, $25 billion in deposits, $1.7 billion in tangible common equity and more than $400 million in run rate earnings on a pro forma basis, the combined bank will have the scale, financial strength and earnings power to compete effectively and drive sustainable earnings and growth. September marked 10 years since Butterfield's New York Stock Exchange listing.
And during that time, we have delivered a consistent record of performance, generating returns on equity of approximately 15% to 25% while growing profits and earnings per share. Over that period, we have demonstrated the durability of our business model across varying economic and interest rate environments. Our success has been built on a high-quality business model with fee income contributing approximately 40% of revenues and a disciplined approach to risk and expense management that has allowed us to generate strong returns without relying on elevated credit or investment risk.
Combined with thoughtful capital deployment, strategic acquisitions and significant shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases, this has enabled us to create meaningful long-term value. We see the acquisition of CIBC Caribbean as the next step in that journey, enhancing our scale, capabilities and market position. We look forward to welcoming our new colleagues and clients to Butterfield. Thank you. And with that, we would be happy to take your questions. Operator?
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Tim Switzer with KBW.
질의응답
Timothy Switzer
First one I have is just a little bit more of commentary on the NIM outlook. Can you maybe talk about what impact you've seen so far from rate hikes across U.S. and your other jurisdictions that are impacted? And then what your expectations would be on the impact going forward?
Michael Schrum
Yes. Tim, it's Michael Schrum. Yes, I mean, obviously, things are bouncing around a little bit with us finally landing on deposit levels that we've sort of foreshadowed over the last sort of year or so. And then obviously, NIM is pulling through broadly with somewhat of a lag at a 50% overall beta. So in the short term, we expect NIM to be relatively flat. So it will be deposit outflows offset by asset repricing effectively in the investment and the short-term cash bucket and some modest uptick in cost of deposits.
So generally speaking, on a core basis, we would expect NIM to be flat in the short term with a sort of modest tailwind into the next year coming from the previously announced Fed rate increases and then possibly depending on what happens with some further upward adjustment. So good news overall, there's a bit of fluctuation in deposit levels. But I think broadly speaking, loans have been flat. And obviously, we've sort of held on the repricing of Bermuda base rate affecting mortgage holders for the last hike. And so that would probably give us some further opportunities into '27.
Timothy Switzer
Got it. That was very helpful. And you touched on this, but can you help us get an idea of the NII impact of the deposits that are moving off balance sheet? Like if I -- it sounds like the NIM is staying flat with the move. Do I just take, say, $400-plus million of deposits and use your normalized NIM, that's $11 million or so annually?
Michael Schrum
Yes. I mean it's -- we expect NII again to be relatively flat. Obviously, there's a little bit of seasonality on the balance sheet as well. So typically, Cayman deposits, we get more inflows in the fourth quarter. So seasonal variations obviously can impact a little bit. But I think, generally speaking, we should expect NII to be flat in the short term with a positive bias in the medium term. So exactly as you said, there's multiple moving parts there, but it should be a net positive that rates are going up over time.
Operator
The next question comes from Evan Kwiatkowski with Raymond James.
Evan Kwiatkowski
I just wanted to touch on the deal first. Could you update us on any intention to pursue balance sheet optimization opportunities with the deal, whether it be repositioning anything on the loans for securities side? And then just curious if there's any businesses or portfolios on the CIBC Caribbean side, you're looking to grow further or conversely run off?
Michael Schrum
Yes. Maybe I'll just kick off just on the optimization. Obviously, the CIBC Caribbean entities still report to CIBC in Toronto. And so we started to take a look at, obviously, their investment portfolios and had some good conversations around liquidity contingency and starting to sort of talk about what types of investments they have. I mean most of that is going to be U.S. treasuries relatively short duration. So not as big of a rate impact on the fair market valuation of that.
They do have some sovereign securities in both Bahamas and Barbados that we're taking a look at in terms of either marketability or commitments that we've made to those governments. And so there will probably be some further work we'll do before closing to just familiarize ourselves. And I think at closing, we'll obviously take a look and see if we need to restructure a little bit.
As you know, moving to our model is mainly -- we don't have any credit risk in the investment portfolio. So we want to kind of make sure we're not doubling down on sovereign risk as well, but obviously subject to sensitivities in those individual jurisdictions. So I think good conversations so far, nothing really untoward in there and some liquidity in some securities, but good to see that it's mainly U.S. treasury based.
Michael Collins
Yes. And I think we're very happy with the footprint. So each of these jurisdictions have very sticky deposits. They have a lot of similarities, but they are very different, which gives us great diversification across the deposit base. We've got all of our regulatory applications in.
We've gotten a very warm welcome from all the governments and central banks, spent a lot of time down there and spent a lot of time with our new CIBC Caribbean colleagues. It's a great cultural fit, really good rapport. And it's a really, really good bank. I mean it's really well run and great systems, great people. So we're very excited about it. But currently, we're very happy with the entire footprint.
Bri Hidalgo
Yes. And recall, we previously mentioned the extensive due diligence that we performed on both the investment portfolio and credit book. And it's a well-performing book. It largely aligns with our underwriting standards and risk expectations.
Michael Schrum
I think -- yes, I mean, if you look over the sort of longer term, we are sort of more of a retail bank than more of a corporate bank. And so we're sort of seeing what are the opportunities in the retail space, whether it's residential mortgage-backed lending, collateral-backed lending and then obviously, trying to see if there's any other additional things that maybe we could pick up such as merchant acquiring and noncompetitive services as well. So pretty positive overall, but this would sort of be a transition over the medium to longer term.
Evan Kwiatkowski
That's really helpful. And then maybe just switching to the loan side. It seemed like mortgage was pretty stable quarter-over-quarter. I'm just curious how you think about growth in the single-family resi portfolio in general against a higher rate backdrop and whether you expect any significant changes in demand if we get further rate hikes?
Michael Schrum
Yes. I mean, obviously, that sort of is the intent of the rate hikes we're reviewing. We don't really see any credit pressures, maybe with the exception a little bit in our London book, but those nonperformers are really coming through liquidity pressures in that book and uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment. You probably saw the U.K. budget was announced this morning.
No surprises there from a housing perspective, but there are some longer-term uncertainty in that market surrounding the regulatory changes that they've made to -- particularly to resident non-dom regime and some of the tax changes they've made some additional friction costs in the form of stamp duty, et cetera. So stability is better, obviously, for that book. I think people are sort of nervous when there's new prime ministers coming in with a greater degree of frequency.
But we're seeing some good traction in terms of obviously other areas that kind of facing uncertainty primarily in the Middle East. So we're seeing people coming back and maybe renting into Central London. So that's sort of supporting some of the liquidity aspects. But we've done a pretty detailed look at the London book, and I think we're pretty happy with that being temporary, but the question is how long is temporary? It's been going on for a little bit.
Evan Kwiatkowski
Got it. And then if I could sneak one more in. If I could round it off on the expense side. Just curious if this high $90 million per quarter range is a reasonable core run rate. I know you've mentioned before some opportunities for expense savings, relocating people to Halifax. Just curious if you still see that as an opportunity or if there's anything else you're looking at in terms of optimizing the expense base.
Michael Schrum
Yes, good question. Obviously, expenses were a little high this quarter, a number of sort of non-recurring things impacting that. So we still believe -- are confident that we can get to $93 million to $95 million. That should be the run rate going forward. I think we've kind of gotten to the less meaningful impact of the Halifax move. We almost have 300 people up there, and we want to retain client faces in our jurisdictions.
So we're kind of looking at the 2s and 3s as opposed to the 10s and 20s. But I think there's still more opportunity in that space. And then we're kind of being also focusing on quantifying the synergies from the deal as they come through. So I think we're sort of thinking, there are some more opportunities, but we're kind of pausing a little bit on that on the BAU side, but still kind of confident that we'll get into that range in the short term.
Operator
The next question comes from Robert Rutschow with Wells Fargo.
Robert Rutschow
Just a housekeeping question on the deposit outflow, I assume most of that will come out of cash? Or do you expect to sort of maintain the size of the balance sheet? And then I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on the decline in loan yields overall and whether that should bounce back going forward.
Michael Schrum
Yes. Maybe I'll kick off. Certainly, yes, you're right. The balance sheet will be smaller by $0.5 billion. We have a lot of -- $3.8 billion cash and short-term securities. So not really affecting our liquidity position. These were expected outflows and sort of treated as contractual funding, if you will from all of our -- in all of our regulatory submissions. And certainly, our models have already factored that in as at last quarter end.
It was a mixture of liquidation money, and I think we've talked about this before. It's a long-standing fund that was going into voluntary liquidation. The fund was sitting on our balance sheet. We knew it was coming out. So the balance sheet will be smaller by -- will come into a deposit range of $12 billion to $12.5 billion. And I think that's kind of what we said previously. And yes, that will come out of cash in the first instance, so obviously affecting the size of the returns in the NII.
But then behind that is obviously a rising interest rate environment. So that's kind of helpful in that regard. In terms of loan yields, and I think we have this in an appendix, we've seen mainly the ARMs that we have in our book resetting to floating at this point. And so while -- and we've sort of lagged the repricing of the Fed rate increase, particularly in Bermuda.
And as you know, the U.K. BOE rate has recently moved. So we're expecting some repricing there. But generally speaking, I think that loans are stable. It's competitive environment. So I'm not expecting sort of loans to reprice upwards at this point, although the fixed to floating piece is definitely the remixing piece that's impacting the loan yield effectively.
Robert Rutschow
Okay. That's helpful. And then just a question on the deal. I guess some of the acquired islands that you're going into appear to have a little bit faster GDP growth. When you're thinking about synergies with the deal, anything you might do to sort of lean into better growth in those new markets?
Michael Collins
Yes. I mean, as I said, they're all very different jurisdictions, but all recovering from COVID quite well. So Barbados, the IMF came in, they got their debt to GDP way down, growing quite well in Bahamas as well.
Michael Schrum
Yes. So I think -- I mean the thing to look at there is, obviously, we have challenges in our growth trajectories with the islands where we have large market share. So in Bermuda and Cayman, in particular, we have really, really nice market share. Some of these new islands, we have a lower market share.
And when you look at the business mix between the retail and corporate book and particularly lending and deposits, I think there's a real opportunity there to grow some of that in line with GDP, which is, as you said, growing faster than some of the other small islands, but take a little bit of market share as well as part of that and then maybe over time, sort of moderate some of their corporate lending. But again, this will be sort of a long-term project. We're not thinking a big push in retail. We're sort of thinking take our market share initially and just focus a little bit more on that.
Michael Collins
Yes. And I think Barbados, Bahamas, certainly Cayman, Barbados, Bahamas and Turks and Caicos are strong market shares. All the other islands do quite well. So it adds up quite well. I think going forward, we're going to focus a lot on Cayman, Barbados, and there are different economies. So Barbados is tourist economy, but also a big domestic economy, a large population. And if you've been in the Bahamas recently, it's in terms of wealth management and properties and real estate, it's incredibly good at this point.
So everything seems to be growing quite well. The whole region is kind of coming back from COVID. Tourism is up. So we're pretty excited about the opportunities. But yes, we're not projecting a lot of cost synergies. Our focus is to support the governments and communities. There are unions as well. And so we're making commitments to support everyone across the board, and it will be very lucrative over time, but we're going to take our time.
Operator
That concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Noah Fields for closing remarks.
Noah Fields
Thank you, Drew, and thanks to everyone for dialing in today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter, and have a great day.
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
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