스태그 인더스트리얼 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: 임대 스프레드 강세 지속에 가이던스 상향

핵심 요약

• 주당 코어 FFO는 0.66달러로 전년 동기 대비 1.5% 증가했습니다. 3분기 동일 점포 현금 NOI는 3.5% 증가했으며, 연초 대비 누적 증가율은 3.9%를 기록했습니다.
• STAG는 2026년 주당 가이던스 범위를 2.64~2.66달러로 상향 조정하고, 동일 점포 현금 성장률 가이던스를 3.5%~3.75%로 올렸습니다.
• 3분기 임대 물량은 360만 스퀘어피트에 달했으며, 현금 및 정액 기준 임대 스프레드는 각각 23.8%와 35.7%를 기록했습니다. 임차인 유지율은 90.3%였습니다.
• 경영진은 2026년 예상치인 1.6%에 비해 2027년 시장 임대료 성장률이 2%~4%를 기록할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 또한 내년 임대 스프레드 목표치를 약 15%로 설정하고 있습니다.
• 3분기 매입 규모는 총 1억 790만 달러로, 현금 및 정액 기준 자본화율(캡레이트)은 각각 6.9%와 7.2%였습니다. STAG는 분기 종료 후 5,500만 달러에 추가 건물을 매입했습니다.
• 데이터 센터 관련 임차인들은 2025년 초부터 STAG로부터 250만 스퀘어피트를 임차했으며, 이는 해당 기간 신규 운용 포트폴리오 임대 물량의 26%에 해당합니다.

주요 재무 데이터

연초 대비 누적 동일 점포 현금 NOI 성장률에는 한 임차인의 임대료 수금 시점과 관련된 약 30bp의 수혜가 포함되어 있습니다. 경영진은 이를 조정한 성장률이 3.6%였을 것이며, 기저효과에 따른 수혜는 4분기에 반전(상쇄)될 것이라고 밝혔습니다.

사업 및 운용 실적

STAG는 3분기 전국 순흡수물량이 2023년 초 이후 분기 최고 수준인 약 7,500만 스퀘어피트를 기록했다고 밝히며 산업용 부동산 수요 강세를 보고했습니다. 연초 대비 누적 순흡수물량은 1억 8,600만 스퀘어피트를 초과했으며, 비해안 지역 시장이 80%를 차지했습니다.

경영진은 개발 중인 공간이 기존 재고의 2% 미만을 차지하는 등 건설 활동이 절제된 수준을 유지했다고 밝혔습니다. 수요는 제3자 물류(3PL), 제조업 및 데이터 센터 관련 임차인 전반에 걸쳐 광범위하게 발생했습니다.

데이터 센터 관련 임대는 보다 의미 있는 수요원으로 자리 잡았습니다. 2025년 초부터 STAG는 해당 임차인들에게 250만 스퀘어피트를 임대했습니다. 경영진은 이러한 임대 계약이 일반적으로 6~7년의 가중평균 계약 기간을 가지며 중서부, 남동부 및 텍사스에 집중되어 있다고 전했습니다.

3분기 말 기준 동사는 아직 운용에 들어가지 않은 총 180만 스퀘어피트 규모의 개발 건물 7개를 보유하고 있었습니다. 해당 분기 동안 총 6만 9,000스퀘어피트 규모의 개발 임대 계약 2건이 체결되었습니다. 리노의 리소스 드라이브(Resource Drive) 자산은 임대율 62%를 달성했으며, 샬럿의 피드몬트 커머스 스트리트(Piedmont Commerce Street) 건물은 만실을 기록했습니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 현금 동일 점포 성장률 전망치가 상향된 원인으로 영업 기대치 개선과 예상보다 낮은 신용 손실을 꼽았습니다. 3분기까지의 누적 신용 손실은 총 12bp로, 동사의 당초 연간 예상치인 50bp와 대비됩니다.

2027년에 대해 경영진은 시장 임대료 성장률을 2%~4%로 예상하고 있습니다. STAG는 2027년 임대 계획의 약 40%를 완료했으며, 현금 롤오버 스프레드는 12%를 기록했습니다. 고정 갱신 옵션을 제외하면 완료된 부분의 스프레드는 17.5%였습니다. 경영진은 해당 연도 전체로 약 15%의 임대 스프레드를 목표로 하고 있습니다.

경영진은 또한 약 3%의 계약상 인상률, 약 15%의 임대 스프레드, 변동 없는 점유율, 50bp의 신용 손실 가정을 바탕으로 2027년 약 5%의 현금 동일 점포 성장률을 달성하기 위한 예비적 경로를 제시했습니다.

리스크 및 관찰 항목

• 경영진은 리노 노스 밸리스(North Valleys)에 위치한 마운트 헨더슨(Mount Henderson) 개발 사업을 현재 임대 리스크가 가장 큰 프로젝트로 설명했습니다. 해당 하위 시장의 전통적인 물류 수행 및 물류 수요는 계속 부진한 상태를 유지하고 있습니다.
• 최근의 금리 변동성이 매입 가격 결정에 영향을 미치기 시작했습니다. 경영진은 25~30bp 수준의 가격 재산정 징후를 언급하며, 다른 조건이 동일하다면 자본화율이 2026년 수준보다 25~35bp 높은 수준에서 안정화될 수 있다고 전망했습니다.
• STAG의 업데이트된 매입 가이던스는 자본 시장의 불확실성으로 인해 2026년 남은 기간 동안 추가적인 매입 활동이 거의 없을 것으로 가정하고 있습니다.
• 연초 대비 누적 동일 점포 현금 NOI 성장률을 끌어올렸던 시점 수혜는 4분기에 반전될 예정이나, 경영진은 이것이 연간 전체 실적에는 영향이 없다고 밝혔습니다.
• 경영진은 가구를 포함한 마진율이 낮은 업종을 임차인 신용도 관련 주의가 필요한 분야로 꼽으면서도, 전반적인 신용 프로필은 전 분기 대비 실질적인 변화가 없다고 지적했습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

자본 배분: STAG는 새롭게 승인된 자사주 매입 프로그램이 매입 및 개발과 더불어 또 다른 선택지를 제공한다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 자사주 매입, 안정화된 자산 매입, 그리고 현재 7% 이상의 수익률이 예상되는 개발 프로젝트 간의 기대 수익률을 비교·검토할 예정이다.

매입 가격 결정: 경영진은 최근의 변동성으로 인해 일부 가격 재산정 및 거래 재협상이 발생했다고 밝혔다. 1031 동종 자산 교환(1031 exchange) 구매자들이 일시적으로 가격을 지지할 수 있어, 완전한 영향이 시장에 파급되기까지는 3~6개월이 걸릴 것으로 예상하고 있다.

자금 조달 전략: S&P 글로벌 레이팅스로부터 '안정적' 전망을 포함한 최초의 BBB 등급을 취득함에 따라, STAG는 이제 S&P, 피치, 무디스로부터 모두 투자적격 등급을 보유하게 되었다. 경영진은 5년 만기 공모채의 총발행금리가 6%를 소폭 하회하는 수준일 것이며, 10년 만기 채권은 약 6.25%~6.4% 수준에서 발행될 것으로 추정했다. 동사는 기존 유동성과 7,000만 달러 규모의 미정산 선도주식 대금, 미처분이익금(유보 현금 흐름) 덕분에 장기 자금을 적극적으로 모색하고 있지는 않다.

개발 임대: 경영진은 투기적(speculative) 프로젝트에 대한 12개월의 표준 임대 소요 기간 가정을 여전히 무난한 것으로 평가했다. 캔자스시티, 피닉스, 샬럿, 루이빌 등은 건설적인 활동을 보이고 있는 반면, 리노는 임대 불확실성의 주요 지역으로 남아 있다고 설명했다.

수요 동인: 경영진은 임차 수요 개선의 원인으로 공급망 다변화, 온쇼어링(국내 복귀), 니어쇼어링(인근국 이전) 및 펜트업 공간 수요를 꼽았다. 또한 공실률이 하락한 시장에서는 임대 결정 시한이 단축되었다고 덧붙였다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the STAG Industrial, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Steve Xiarhos, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Steve. You may begin.

Steve Xiarhos

Thank you. Welcome to STAG Industrial's conference call covering the third quarter 2026 results. In addition to the press release distributed yesterday, we have posted an unaudited quarterly supplemental information presentation on the company's website at www.stagindustrial.com, under the Investor Relations section.

On today's call, the company's prepared remarks and answers to your questions will contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today. Examples of forward-looking statements include forecast of Core FFO, same-store NOI, G&A, acquisition and disposition volumes, retention rates and other guidance, leasing prospects, rent collections, industry and economic trends and other matters. We encourage all listeners to review the more detailed discussion related to these forward-looking statements contained in the company's filings with the SEC and the definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures contained in the supplemental information package available on the company's website. As a reminder, forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of today. STAG Industrial assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

On today's call, you will hear from Bill Crooker, our Chief Executive Officer; and Matts Pinard, our Chief Financial Officer. Also here with us today are Mike Chase, our Chief Investment Officer; and Steve Kimball, our Chief Operating Officer. We're available to answer questions specific to their areas of focus.

I'll now turn the call over to Bill.

William Crooker

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the third quarter earnings call for STAG Industrial. We're pleased to have you join us and look forward to discussing the third quarter 2026 results. The third quarter marked the continued improvement in industrial fundamentals with national vacancy rates down since last quarter. Net absorption totaled approximately 75 million square feet nationally, the highest quarterly figure since early 2023 and has now topped 69 million square feet in each of the last 2 quarters. Through 9 months, market has absorbed more than 186 million square feet, a pace we have not seen since 2022, and non-coastal markets drove 80% of year-to-date absorption.

New construction remains disciplined. While development starts are up, product under construction totals less than 2% of existing inventory with much of it already committed through pre-leasing or build-to-suit agreements. We are seeing broad-based demand primarily from 3PLs, hence manufacturing and data center-related tenants. We have now leased 2.5 million square feet to data center related tenants since the start of 2025. This data center-related leasing activity accounted for 26% of all of our new operating portfolio leasing during that same period. The table is set for us to see upward pressure on rent growth in many markets as leverage gradually shifts back to the landlord. We expect our market rent growth for next year to be in the range of 2% to 4%, an acceleration as compared to the 1.6% market rent growth expected for 2026.

Geographically, the strength has been most pronounced in the markets where STAG is concentrated. Acquisition volume for the third quarter totaled $107.9 million. This consisted of 2 buildings with Cash and Straight-Line cap rate of 6.9% and 7.2%, respectively. Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired 1 building for $55 million at a Cash and Straight-Line cap rate of 6.7% and 7.1%, respectively.

In terms of our development platform, we have 7 buildings or 1.8 million square feet of development activity that is not in service as of the end of Q3. These buildings are in various stages of development and have an expected stabilized yield of 7%. We executed 2 development leases this quarter, totaling 69,000 square feet. The first was a 47,000 square feet lease at our Resource Drive building in Reno, bringing that building to 62% leased. The other was for 21,000 square feet at our Piedmont Commerce Street building in Charlotte, bringing that building to 100% leased.

With that, I will turn it over to Matts who will cover our remaining results and guidance for 2026.

Matts Pinard

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Core FFO per share was $0.66 for the quarter, an increase of 1.5% as compared to last year. Net debt to annualized run rate adjusted EBITDA was equal to 5.1x, while liquidity stood at $546 million. During the quarter, we commenced 30 leases across 3.6 million square feet generating Cash and Straight-Line leasing spreads of 23.8% and 35.7%, respectively. Retention for the quarter was 90.3%. Same-store cash NOI grew 3.5% for the quarter and 3.9% year-to-date. Year-to-date same-store cash NOI growth of 3.9% includes approximately 30 basis points of benefit related to a single tenant whose rent was unpaid as of the third quarter of 2025 and substantially collected in the fourth quarter of 2025. The benefit reverses in Q4 and we expect full year same-store growth within our guidance range, which we revised upwards since our last earnings call.

Moving to capital market activity. As discussed on our last call, we did repay the $50 million private placement note fee, which matured on July 1. Also mentioned on our last call in July, we combined our Term Loan A and F, both of which were [indiscernible] march of 2027 into a single $350 million term loan returning January 2032. The swap fixed rate is 3.53% until March 2027 and 4.79% from then on until maturity. We also repriced our revolver in all of our term loans, saving 5 basis points across our [indiscernible] debt. As of today, the company has total forward equity net proceeds $70 million available to settle at our discretion.

We're pleased to announce that in August of this year, STAG received an investment grade rating from S&P Global Ratings. S&P assigned a rating of BBB to STAG with a stable outlook. The company also maintains an investment-grade rating of BBB with a stable outlook with Fitch and an investment-grade rating of Baa2 with a stable outlook from Moody's.

Moving to guidance. We have made the following updates. Average same-store occupancy guidance has been increased to a range of 96.75% to 97.85%, an increase of 25 basis points at the midpoint. Cash same-store growth guidance has also been increased from a range of 3% to 3.5% to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the year. This increase is driven by the upward revision of expectations and lower-than-expected cash credit loss. We have narrowed the range of expected acquisition volume to a range of $530 million to $600 million. We now expect to stabilize capitalization rate range between 6.3% and 6.4%. G&A guidance has been increased to a range of $56 million to $57 million. These guidance changes resulted in an increase in [indiscernible] guidance to a range of $2.64 to $2.66 per share, an increase of $0.02 at the midpoint. 2026 guidance can be found on Page 21 of our supplemental package, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

I will now turn the call back over to Bill.

William Crooker

Thank you, Matts, and thank you to our team for their continued hard work and achievement towards our 2026 goals. We will finish this year ahead of our initial budgets and are well positioned going into 2027. With that, I will turn it back to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] [Audio Gap].

질의응답

Unknown Analyst

[indiscernible] If I missed this, but did you discuss where you think rent spreads are coming in and maybe give us an update on progress on 2027 expirations to date? I know you used to give this metric in the press release.

Unknown Executive

Yes. Craig, yes, we didn't include that, but I can give an update now. We're about 40% through our 2027 leasing plan. If those spreads on the 40% were 12% cash rollover spreads. The one nuance there is almost all of our fixed renewal items are in that 40%. So when you take those out, the spreads on that 40% was 17.5%. We expect leasing spreads next year to be around 15%.

Craig Mailman

Okay. That is helpful. And I know you guys I'm asking for 2027, not going to get greedy and ask for 2028. But a lot of questions I'm getting are just -- you guys and some of your have talked about the sort of mid- to high teens spread for next year. Can you just walk us through the math or how we should think about maybe a normalized rate of decel or where like '28, '29 could be from a rent spread perspective on a cash basis? And just kind of walk us through the math and what that could look like.

William Crooker

Yes. I mean do you want to go out to '30 and '31 or no?

Craig Mailman

If your crystal ball is that good, go for it.

William Crooker

No, I understand the question. The way we look at it, I mean, with moderate market rent growth, we're probably in the low double digits to mid-double digits of leasing spreads as you kind of move out to '28 and '29. I mean it kind of wouldn't say it bottoms out in '27, but it should be pretty steady from here on out.

Operator

Our next question is from Nick Thillman with Baird.

Nicholas Thillman

Maybe I wanted to comment on -- get your thoughts on the updated deployment strategy. Obviously, the Board is authorizing the buyback here. As you look across acquisitions, with the interest rate rises. Are you seeing more opportunities there? Or do you see opportunity on the buyback? I guess, weighing all the buckets you can pick at where are you seeing the best opportunity to deploy capital is at?

William Crooker

Yes. It's interesting, Nick. I mean, it changes. The good thing is the buyback, it's another tool in our toolkit here. So when that's the best use of capital, we'll deploy it to that. And if we can find stabilized acquisitions at higher yields that we like those assets in those markets, we'll deploy it there. And historically, or at least in the past year, 2 years, we've seen developments has been opportunity to deploy capital. Right now, we're -- and those developments are yielding 7% plus and build-to-suits a little bit inside of that. And you saw we were able to pick off some nice acquisitions in -- in this quarter, I think those came in at about a 6.9% cap rate. So we'll look across all those opportunities.

And frankly, if none of them are what we view as a good opportunity to put capital, and we won't do any of it. So we've done a good job of allocating capital in the past, and this just gives us another another tool to use if we see that as the best opportunity.

Nicholas Thillman

And then maybe for my follow-up, just on the overall development leasing and the progress you're seeing at some of your projects. I believe you guys underwrite 12 months post completion for lease up for a lot of these projects. So maybe just some of the bigger ones, how discussions have progressed on that front? And where the overall tenant mix and how far along we are within the pipeline on executed deals?

William Crooker

Yes, I can pass it over to Steve to walk through the details there. But I will say our disclosure have developments that we've placed in service that are well within the 12-month lease-up. So I think that that's something that needs to be factored into when you look at the progress on developments.

Steven Kimball

Yes. Thanks, Bill. Thanks, Nick. Probably get a few questions on the development side to [indiscernible] in a little bit first. We've kind of this has become a core part of our business with over 100 million annual starts, and we expect that to trend up as we go forward. So if you're looking at Page 10 and 11 of the supplemental, we're tracking over $500 million of investment in 16 buildings, and we spread that out across 11 markets and with 20% plus in build-to-suit category. So -- and as you too were just mentioned, we do underwrite 12 months of downtime for the spec construction. I think that's why Bill directed you did a couple of deals that we have stabilized and put into service as of September 30, and those 2 are obviously 100% occupied.

If you put those together with the assets that we're working on right now that are complete but not in service, that bring that occupancy number up a little higher to like 37%. But on the 1.8 million square feet as a total that we have active projects to work on, let me just walk you through them quickly. In the [indiscernible] construction side because I think there's some good news there. We're in Kansas City with 188,000 square foot deal. That's a 4% vacancy market, and we've had excellent activity on that, Nick. So we feel very good about that project.

Dallas, that's a build-to-suit for 343,000 square feet. So construction is on [indiscernible] and, we expect that delivery to be smooth. The third project is Phoenix. And we're only breaking ground in Phoenix right now and just starting that construction. But it's a 184,000 square foot project in West Chandler, which is just off the I-10 and the Phoenix dynamics of that market continued to improve with vacancies moving down closer to 9%. They were a little bit higher prior to that. So there's a lot of activity in Phoenix, and we feel really good about those projects. So the under construction bucket, 48% leased through 2027 deliveries, and we think we'll lease up and feel comfortable with that 12 months of downtime.

When you move to the more highlighted section, the complete not in service, we're really looking at three markets. I think the first property that's listed there is Resource Driven only has 28 000 square foot left lease there. That's currently being demised with office built out, and we expect that will be leased up pretty quickly. You move down to Reno, the Mt Henderson building, the 284. And candidly, that's the one project that probably sticks out that has the most leasing risk right now. The Reno market when it comes to pure distribution fulfillment uses and the submarket where the North Valleys has been slower. Now the good news there is the trend is that vacancy is coming down, absorption picked back up in the fourth quarter of '25 and has been consistently positive, but we do have some leasing challenges in the Reno North Valleys market as the traditional fulfillment logistics users have not pushed back out to Reno.

So we do have activity there. We've had activity since we delivered it. We just haven't landed those deals. They tend to be multi-market opportunities and there's a lot of competition. Moving down to Charlotte. Charlotte is on the list here. But remember, that was a 2-building -- 2-building development. The first building leased within 7 months. We did 4 leases in that building, just systematically leased it up. We are very active on the building that shows here the 200,000 square feet, and those leases, you can expect will come in at 40,000 to 50,000 square foot leases, and I would expect we'll have 3 or 4 leases to lease up that final building. When you put the tubings together, we should average 12 or 13 months of downtime to stabilization. So feeling good about that market and the progress that we have in Charlotte. And then the large project that really jumps off the page is our 500,000 square footer in Louisville.

Again, a very healthy market of 5.9% vacancy. We're in the right part. We're in the right submarket, and there's been a lot of very positive activity in that market with some of the competing buildings being taken down, and we are active as well with prospects for that building. So in general, we feel pretty good about the complete not-in-service portfolio.

Operator

Our next question is from Dave Rodgers with Raymond James.

David Rodgers

I wanted to ask about the step-up in earnings from 3Q to 4Q. It's a pretty strong increase sequentially for this late in the year. So was leasing just well ahead of expectations? Is the business just performing better than anticipated? And then you mentioned the same-store kind of slip between 3 and 4Q. Can you quantify kind of what that looks like from the last year?

Matts Pinard

Yes, absolutely, Dave. It's Matts. You're right. If you were to take a look at the midpoint of our guidance, we would expect the step up in [indiscernible] for the fourth quarter. One of the drivers is the fact that what we acquired this quarter occurred literally in the last week of September. So you had a full quarter of economics on the 6.9% cap rate deals. And then the same-store, right? We increased occupancy, credit losses trending much better than we had initially projected in February. We did moderate our expectation of credit loss in the last call, and we continue to outperform there. Those are the two big drivers. And was there a second part to your question?

David Rodgers

You had mentioned that there was a same-store NOI kind of impact from the tenant last year. I don't know if there's going to be a bigger impact? Or what's that look like from a quantification standpoint?

Matts Pinard

Yes, absolutely. So the simple answer is cap same-store is 3.9% year-to-date. And if you adjust the timing, which I'll walk into a second, that 3.9% would be 3.6%. So just to kind of back up and reframe what occurred. The tenant last year in the third quarter was affiliated with the first brands bankruptcy. We moved them to cash basis. There was kind of a disruption in communication. They're domiciled in Europe. They did not pay rent in the third quarter. They fully paid the third quarter rents and the current rent fourth quarter. So no payment in the third quarter, double payment in the fourth quarter. Again, on a calendar year basis, no impact. But in our third quarter, Q3 artificially high due to the favorable comp, and it would reverse in the fourth quarter.

I think really the story here, Dave, is our 3.9% year-to-date, if you accounted this timing mismatch in 2025, 3.9% is 3.6%, which is in the -- basically the midpoint of our updated guidance. Does that clearly answer that question?

David Rodgers

Yes, I got that. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up. I think Nick asked a good capital question earlier. But I'm curious if you change that math instead of just saying, where do we put money, but where can we raise money have you guys kind of looked at the convert market or something to maybe lower initial borrowing costs, take advantage of the backup in cap rate that convert market probably lets you equity in the mid -- low to mid-40s, which is above the 39% where you seem comfortable. So curious if maybe changing that equation of how do we raise money maybe more accretively today to take advantage of this backup in [indiscernible] that could help you drive growth even more. Is that something you're thinking of?

Matts Pinard

Yes, Dave, we valuate everything. We're obviously very familiar with the convert market. The good news is, look, we have a revolver balance of $500 million. We have $70 million of unfunded equity. We retained $130 million of cash after dividends paid. So we don't -- we don't need additional count right now. We would raise capital in the sense that we saw opportunities to deploy it. But where we are right now with where our balance sheet is, our liquidity and our retained cash flow, we're in a very comfortable spot capital wise.

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Griffin with Evercore ISI.

Michael Griffin

Maybe just starting on the acquisition environment. I saw the cap rate guidance ticked up marginally. I imagine that was largely due to the acquisitions in the third quarter, but have you gotten a sense if you've seen any repricing or re-trading yields, just given the volatility in interest rates recently? Curious if higher seller expectations have moved, the bid-ask spreads widened? Any additional color there would be helpful.

Michael Chase

Michael, this is Mike Chase. I appreciate the question. I mean, it takes a little while for the volatility to push the market, but there has been some indications of higher re-trades and general repricing on deals that are coming to market. I'm not -- the cap rate -- the movement in cap rates we'll take a little bit to flush through the system. But I would say so far, I would say it's probably somewhere in the 25 basis points to 30 basis points based on kind of the re-trades we've heard about. Some of those re-trades are happening and some the sellers are saying no and either waiting to see what happens with the capital markets and the kind of market volatility or buyers are pushing through. So we have seen a few -- a few re-trades here and there or hearing about them.

William Crooker

Yes. We expect it to stabilize all else being equal, 25 basis points to 35 basis points higher than what it was this year. And the reason for the lag generally is 1031 buyers hold the pricing for a little bit. And that usually, as Mike was saying, flushes through within 3 to 6 months. And with respect to our guidance, yes, really, our guidance was was moved and represented very little acquisition activity for the rest of the year just due to the uncertain capital markets environment.

Michael Griffin

I certainly appreciate the context there. And then, Bill, just going back to your comments in the prepared remarks about continued improvement in industrial fundamentals. As you talk to your big customers, your big tenants out there, I mean, what are they saying is the reason for this increased demand? Is there more certainty in their business? And do they just feel more confident about the macro outlook and the need to lease space? And then just also if you could add anything whether proposal activity, decision time lines shrunk. Some commentary around that would be great, too.

William Crooker

Yes. I mean what we're hearing, and there's a couple of demand drivers, and this has been pretty consistent for the past 6, 12 months and even further, I guess. Our large sophisticated tenants global tenants have said they've wanted to diversify supply chains for years, and that dates back to port strikes and water levels in the Panama Canal and for a number of reasons, diversification of supply chains is important for business because the disruption is very costly to them. So that takes years and years to implement. And part of that is on-shoring manufacturing. It's bringing goods into the U.S. through other ports, it's nearshoring. So that is a demand driver we're seeing.

We're also seeing for a couple of years there, it was some -- there was a lack of demand, I would say, a couple of years, we're at the lowest level of demand we've seen in industrial in a decade. That created some pent-up demand. And so those tenants are in the market, active. And so I think there is confidence in their businesses. Obviously, oil prices are driving some issues with the economy and driving inflation. But overall business activity remains really strong, and that's a big driver of demand. With respect to, call it, lease gestation periods, those have shortened certainly in markets where vacancy has dropped. I mean, one of our bigger markets is probably more unique to us, Greenville, Spartanburg. I mean there's some buildings there that over 300,000 square feet Class A facilities beginning at 25%, there was double-digit in 50s that's close to 0 now. So that's a market where if tenants are looking for space, they're acting really quickly to take it down because they're going to lose it. And that -- when you have urgency in markets when you have vacancy rates coming down, that shortens the lease gestation periods.

Operator

Our next question is from Jason Belcher with Wells Fargo.

Jason Belcher

Matt, just thinking about the ratings upgrade from S&P [indiscernible]. Can you touch on how that might change the calculus on tapping the public unsecured market? And maybe tell us where you think you could price a 10-year offering today?

Matts Pinard

Yes, absolutely. So this is our inaugural rating actually from S&P. Previously, we had Moody's and Fitch, Fitch at BBB stable. Moody's at Baa2 stable. And then we originated S&P rating at BBB stable. And to your point, that was what we felt was a gating item to enter the public bond market. We were looking at market earlier this year. The capital market world change, capital deployment has slowed. So like I explained to Dave Rodgers, we don't really have a need for long term that capital at this point, again, with $500 million plus liquidity in the unfunded forward plus the retained earnings. But to directly answer your question, if we were to go to the public bond market, we'd likely look at the 5-year tenure. If we look at the 5-year tenure spreads are anywhere between 100 basis points and 110 basis points over. If we were to look at the 10-year added additional 20 basis points to that credit spread. So to kind of sum that up, the all-in coupon rate on a 5-year public bond with our 3 ratings would be a little below 6% and closer to 6.25%, 6.4% in the 10-year. But again, to reiterate, we're not actively looking at that market. We do not have a need for long-term capital right now.

Jason Belcher

And then just can you give us an update on your tenant credit profile, if there are any tenant industries that are giving you more concern than others currently and maybe how that's trended over the past couple of quarters?

Matts Pinard

Yes, absolutely. Happy to report, I really don't have a change to the answer to this question from 90 days ago. Tenants come on or come off, et cetera. But the theme really is, it's not necessarily beverage in low-margin businesses, I think furniture, for example. We've incurred 12 basis points of credit loss through the third quarter. We started the year at a 50 basis point expectation. We lowered that last quarter when we spoke in July [Audio Gap].

Operator

Our next question is from Eric Borden with BMO Capital Markets.

Eric Borden

Not getting too far ahead of '27 guidance, but could you just help us think about the building blocks for cash same store outside of contractual [indiscernible] and the leasing spreads that you're previously discussed? Is there anything meaningful from a free rent burn or the timing of cash commencements that we should keep in mind?

William Crooker

No, nothing from a free rent perspective. When you think about the building blocks as you noted, it's contractual escalators, which are around 3%. We've got leasing spreads, which, as I noted, we're targeting around 15% for next year. Occupancy is a material driver. We had some occupancy loss this year. I think we've explained it in numerous times. But just assume flat occupancy for next year. And then we bake in 50 basis points of credit loss, right? So you can back at the envelope of that, and you're going to be close to the mid-single digits circa 5%.

Eric Borden

Great. And then just on the fixed renewal options. How much of the portfolio still has those embedded? And how has that exposure trended over time? Can you negotiate leases today are generally able to move away from those fixed options? Or are they still asking for?

William Crooker

Yes. Those are -- those are not in any of our kind of form leases. When we sign new leases, those aren't in there. These are -- when you acquire a lease, you acquire a building subject to a lease, you acquired the lease. And sometimes those are in there and sometimes it takes a couple of renewals to get through those fixed renewal options. It's 2%, 3% of our portfolio, maybe even 5%. But I think the impact on leasing spreads over the year has been consistent the last 3 years. So we try not to back them out of our numbers. They're part of our numbers. Good thing is you're just kicking the can down the road with respect to the rollover rents for those. So we'll get at those market rents at some point. But it's really year-over-year, it's not really an impact to same store.

Operator

Our next question is from Henry Newell with RBC Capital Markets.

Henry Newell

[indiscernible] for Michael Caroll this morning. Just wanted to move back to the acquisition pipeline for another moment. It's a pretty big pipeline. Can you quantify really what portion of this pipeline is maybe in the later stages of negotiation. And would we expect acquisitions to increase in 4Q and moving into 2027?

William Crooker

Yes. So the pipeline, our pipeline may be may be different than others. The way we define it is deals that we evaluating, have underwritten, maybe they're back on the market. Maybe we're talking about them internally, they're at various stages. So it's a pretty healthy number, but those are all the deals we're evaluating in the market. Some of those deals are -- the pricing is too rich for us, but we hang around the hoop and if they can -- if the pricing changes, then we'll be there. So for us, I mean, when you look at that pipeline, I mean, historically, our hit rate on that pipeline is really low. So when I think about acquisition guidance for the year, we updated that. We spend a lot of time on it. It's not really factoring in additional -- many additional acquisitions this year just due to the uncertain macro environment.

Now with respect to next year, we'll evaluate the opportunity. We'll evaluate our capital and and we'll buy what makes sense, based on our free cash flow and our liquidity, and that's the calculus we use for next year's acquisitions and frankly, every year acquisition. So it's hard to pinpoint a number at this point.

Henry Newell

Great. I appreciate that context. And then just on the demand side of things in Q3 and Q4 to date, are you guys continuing to see a lot of early data center adjacent demand? And are you seeing this emerge more or less in any specific markets?

William Crooker

I mean the markets where we're seeing is where the data centers are, right? I mean you're seeing them in the Midwest and the Southeast and Texas. And frankly, we've had some really good success on leasing to data center-related tenant. And there's been a lot more leasing that, frankly, it just hasn't made it into our portfolio because we have buildings in those markets that are occupied. When you look at 2025 last year, I think you accounted for almost 20% of our new leasing in year-to-date 2026, it's about 30% of our new leasing. The good thing is these are long-term leases. The weighted average lease term is between 6 years and 7 years, really good credits. These leases are supporting the ongoing operations of data centers. What I do want to know what's important here is these buildings, we're already built, we're in these markets, and we're there to service other demand drivers within these markets.

This is just another incremental demand driver in these markets. So a lot of these buildings were leased to either regional distributors servicing the local economy, servicing a plant nearby. So our buildings in these markets were there for other reasons. This is just an incremental demand driver.

Operator

Our next question is from Jessica Zheng with Green Street.

Jessica Zheng

So in the last earnings call, you mentioned El Paso as one of your weaker markets in terms of market rent growth. Can you just walk us through your thesis on the El Paso acquisition in this quarter?

William Crooker

Yes. We like El Paso. We like the long-term fundamentals in that market. The El Paso acquisition had a little over 5 years of lease term it's right near the bridge where a lot of the demand is in El Paso, especially cross-border demand. So for us, El Paso is going to we think, have some short-term struggles, but long term, we really like the market. So that was the thesis behind that acquisition.

Jessica Zheng

Great. And then maybe just [indiscernible] curious -- what drove the increase in the G&A guidance this quarter?

Matts Pinard

Absolutely. So the midpoint of G&A increased $2 million with our updated guidance. It's not one item. It's a collection of items and it includes internal employee adjustments. We have some new hires. Every year, we have a normal course annual service provider fee increases, true up for the short-term incentive program. So it's not one thing. It's a collection of things. But added together, we did increase our G&A guidance.

Operator

Our next question is from Sydney McKensie with J.P Morgan Chase.

Unknown Analyst

So in your opening remarks, you mentioned expecting rent growth in the 2% to 4% range next year. Can you just talk a little bit specifically on any green shoots you're seeing in any of your markets in particular that might be making you feel better about market rent growth?

William Crooker

Yes. I mean it's -- we operate in a lot of markets, so it's hard to go market by market. But because it's one of our top markets, I'll go back to the Greenville Spartanburg, I mean that even market occupancy last year, I think, was in -- the vacancy rates were in the double digits. It's probably mid-single digits now. Independent [indiscernible] type, it's lower, right? I think I mentioned over 300,000 square feet Class As, close to 0%. So when you look at market rent growth, you also then have to further look at product type and what assets are in those markets. If you look at Columbus, great success in that market, a lot of big box leasing. It's a big box market. So you're getting really strong market rent growth for big box distribution assets in that market. If you've got a smaller box asset there, any market rent growth is probably not as strong.

So we take a market-by-market look, layer on our view of our assets in those markets, and that's where we come up with our market rent growth of 2% to 4%. And we had -- this year, we had 0% to 2% market rent growth and think we're 1.6% year-to-date. So trending on the higher end of that range in our portfolio. And we'll see how 2027 shakes out, but we feel really good about the fundamentals and how our assets fit in those markets.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. Great. And then maybe as a follow-up to the acquisition talk earlier. Could this rate volatility in the macro environment in the acquisition market currently, maybe create an opportunity to acquire assets from smaller developers who might be facing higher financing costs or watch list exposures now?

William Crooker

Absolutely. I mean this is part of our business, and we were able to find some great opportunities in Q3. You turn the clock back 6 months, we're not able to acquire those assets for 6.9%, right? I mean I think one of them just talked about the El Paso asset, I think there's some noise there with the short-term fundamentals in that market. But long term, we really like the market, and we've got a 5-year lease to a good credit. So we'll be able to get through the short-term market issues there, and we got it at a really strong cap rate. So yes, there will be opportunities, and we'll look at them and hopefully, we'll be able to take advantage of them.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Bill Crooker for closing comments.

William Crooker

Yes. Just thanks, everybody, for joining the call. And thank you for the questions, and we look forward to seeing you soon at the upcoming conferences.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.