클리어워터 페이퍼(CLW) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콜: 가격 인상 효과, 오거스타 차질 및 4분기 전망

클리어워터 페이퍼(NYSE: CLW)가 2026년 3분기 조정 EBITDA 2,400만 달러를 기록하며 회사 가이던스 범위인 2,000만~3,000만 달러를 충족했다고 발표했다. 제품 판매 가격은 전분기 대비 개선되었으나, 오거스타 공장의 가동 차질과 분쟁 관련 인플레이션이 여전히 상당한 걸림돌로 작용했다.

핵심 요약

• 순매출은 3억 8,500만 달러로 전년 동기 대비 4% 감소했으며, 출하량은 1% 줄어들고 시장 가격은 4% 하락했다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 2,400만 달러를 기록했다. 회사는 1,750만 달러의 보험금을 포함해 계속영업 순손실 200만 달러(희석 주당순손실 0.10달러)를 기록했다고 발표했다.
• 평균 판매 가격은 2분기 대비 톤당 34달러 상승해 분기 실적에 약 800만 달러의 기여를 했다. 클리어워터 페이퍼는 톤당 60달러의 1차 가격 인상을 완료했으며, 2차 가격 인상을 추진하고 있다.
• 오거스타 공장의 가동 차질로 생산량과 출하량이 감소했다. 경영진은 최근 해당 공장의 생산량이 정상 성능 유지를 위해 필요한 수준보다 10%~15% 낮게 가동되고 있다고 밝혔다.
• 4분기 조정 EBITDA는 계절적 물량 감소, 오거스타 공장의 가동 문제, 보수 유지비, 에너지 및 분쟁 관련 비용 증가 등을 반영해 1,000만~2,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 예상된다.
• 클리어워터 페이퍼는 채무 만기를 2031년까지 연장하는 리파이낸싱을 완료했다. 3분기 실효 이자율은 8.25%였으며, 향후 연간 이자 비용은 약 2,500만 달러가 될 것으로 예상된다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 성과

해당 분기 동안 제품 판매 가격이 개선되기 시작했다. 경영진은 톤당 60달러의 1차 가격 인상으로 연간 7,000만 달러 이상의 이익이 발생할 것으로 기대하고 있으며, 2026년에는 1,500만~2,000만 달러가 반영될 것으로 예상한다. 회사 물량의 50% 가까이가 RISI 지수에 연동되어 있어 지수 변동이 고객 가격에 완전히 반영되기까지 수 분기의 시차가 발생한다.

경영진은 SBS(Solid Bleached Sulfate) 수요와 주문 잔고가 견조하게 유지되었으며, 2분기까지 업계 전체 출하량이 연초 대비 6% 증가했다고 밝혔다. 컵용 종이(Cup grades) 수요는 클리어워터 페이퍼의 생산 능력을 초과했다. 회사는 2025년 말 이후 업계의 연간 생산량이 약 800,000톤 감소하여 현재 생산 능력 기준으로 연말까지 가동률이 90% 이상으로 올라갈 수 있다고 추정했다.

오거스타 공장은 여전히 주요 영업 제약 요인으로 작용했다. 9월 말과 10월에 발생한 전기 및 기계적 고장이 공장의 펄프, 전력 및 회수 공정에 영향을 미쳤다. 클리어워터 페이퍼는 2027년 1월에 1,200만~1,500만 달러 규모의 정기보수 휴업을 계획 중이며, 2027년 2분기 또는 3분기에는 약 700만~1,000만 달러 비용의 추가 휴업이 예정되어 있다.

회사는 판지 포트폴리오도 다각화하고 있다. 그린페이퍼(Greenpaper)와 함께 출시한 서카 CRB(Circa CRB) 제품은 현재 고객 테스트를 진행 중이다. 클리어워터 페이퍼는 연말까지 사이프러스 벤드(Cypress Bend) 공장에서 CUK 제품군을 출시할 계획이다. 회사는 6,000만 달러 전액 솔루션 대신 약 300만~500만 달러 규모의 저비용 자본 투자를 추진 중이다. 경영진은 추정 규모 30만~40만 톤의 전체 잠재시장(TAM) 중 20%~30% 점유를 목표로 하고 있다.

경영진 가이던스

2026년 4분기에 대해 경영진은 다음과 같이 전망한다.

• 조정 EBITDA 1,000만~2,000만 달러.
• 계절성 및 오거스타 공장의 가동 문제로 인한 판지 출하량 및 생산량의 전분기 대비 감소.
• 800만~1,200만 달러 규모의 전분기 대비 가격 개선 수혜.
• 500만~700만 달러의 사이프러스 벤드 공장 정비 비용.
• 약 400만 달러의 계절적 에너지 비용 증가.
• 100만~200만 달러의 추가 분쟁 관련 비용.

2026년 전체에 대해 클리어워터 페이퍼는 약 15억 달러의 매출액과 전년과 비슷하거나 소폭 증가한 출하량을 예상하고 있다. 2025년 가격 인하로 인한 이월 압박은 총 약 7,000만 달러에 달할 것으로 보이며, 이는 7월과 8월 가격 인상으로 인한 1,500만~2,000만 달러의 상쇄 효과로 일부 완화될 전망이다.

연간 분쟁 관련 비용은 2,800만~3,200만 달러로 예상되며, 정기보수 휴업에 따른 직접 비용은 2,700만~2,900만 달러에 달할 전망이다. 설비투자(CAPEX)는 5,500만~6,000만 달러로 예상된다. 경영진은 EBITDA, 5,000만 달러의 보험 수령금, 2,500만~3,000만 달러의 운전자본 감축 및 환급세액에 힘입어 올해 플러스(+) 잉여현금흐름을 기록할 것으로 전망하고 있다.

경영진은 경기 순환 주기를 통틀어 조정 EBITDA 마진 13%~14% 및 연간 1억 달러 이상의 잉여현금흐름 창출이라는 목표를 재확인했다. 또한 언급된 모든 가격 인상이 전체 물량에 반영될 경우 조정 EBITDA 연율(run rate)이 약 2억 달러 개선될 수 있다고 설명했다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

• 오거스타 공장은 실사 과정에서 쉽게 파악되지 않았던 자산 상태를 해결하기 위해 추가 자본과 가동 중단 시간이 필요한 상황이라고 경영진은 밝혔다.
• 분쟁 관련 인플레이션으로 인해 3분기에 전년 동기 대비 약 1,200만 달러의 비용이 추가되었으며, 이는 주로 운송, 화학 제품, 목재 및 디젤 연동 비용에서 발생했다.
• 관세와 운송비, 에너지, 화학 비용 상승에도 불구하고 유럽산 수입물량은 견조세를 유지했다.
• 2차 가격 인상의 실현 여부는 일부 RISI 지수 반영 및 계약상 가격 적용 시차에 달려 있다.
• 진술 및 보증 보험의 최종 지급금이 수령되었다. 경영진은 오거스타 인수와 관련된 남은 선택지를 검토할 것이라고 밝혔으나 더 이상의 구체적인 내용은 제공하지 않았다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 오거스타 공장에서 2,000만 달러대 초중반, 루이스턴 공장에서 비슷한 수준, 사이프러스 벤드 공장에서 약 700만~800만 달러를 포함해 2027년 총 정비 비용을 약 5,000만 달러로 추정했다.

톤당 60달러의 1차 가격 인상은 2027년에 5,000만~5,500만 달러의 추가 수혜를 가져올 수 있다. 2차 인상이 연말까지 완전히 적용되고 인정될 경우, 경영진은 인상분의 약 절반에서 3분의 2가 계약상 전가된다는 가정하에 2027년에 3,000만~4,000만 달러의 추가 이익이 발생할 것으로 추정했다.

사이프러스 벤드에서는 기존 설비를 SBS와 CUK 생산 간에 전환하는 방식으로 CUK를 생산할 예정이다. 경영진은 잠재 CUK 물량을 5만~10만 톤으로 보고 있으며, 공장 가동률을 30만 톤 이상의 생산 능력 수준까지 올리는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.

경영진은 시장 가격이 회복되고 오거스타 공장이 정상 가동 성능으로 돌아갈 경우 궁극적으로 약 1억 5,000만 달러의 EBITDA 기여가 가능할 것이라고 설명했다. 다만 회사는 이 수준에 도달하려면 당초 예상보다 더 많은 투자가 필요할 것이라고 강조했다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you for standing by. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to today's Clearwater Paper Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I'd now like to turn the call over to Cheri Ellison with Investor Relations. Cheri, please go ahead.

Cheri Ellison

Thank you, Tracy. Good afternoon, and welcome to Clearwater Paper's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Arsen Kitch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sherri Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our third quarter results were released after today's market close, along with the filing of our 10-Q. Supplemental materials, including our current outlook, are available on the Investor Relations page of our website.

Today's discussion includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and supplemental materials. Please also refer to the forward-looking statement disclosure on Slide 2 of the supplemental materials, which we incorporate into these remarks by reference.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Arsen.

Arsen Kitch

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. I'll begin with an overview of our third quarter results, provide some perspectives on industry conditions and discuss actions that we're taking to improve performance and broaden our product portfolio. I'll then turn the call over to Sherri to review our financial results in more detail, discuss our recent refinancing and provide our fourth quarter outlook.

Turning now to our third quarter performance. Our adjusted EBITDA was at $24 million, which was within our guidance range of $20 million to $30 million. Results were driven by benefits from our previously announced price increase and no major maintenance outages during the quarter. Partly offsetting that were incremental costs due to the conflict in the Middle East and operational issues at our Augusta mill.

While revenue decreased by 4% versus the third quarter of last year, primarily due to lower market-driven pricing, we're now beginning to realize the benefits of our announced price increases. Average selling price was $34 per ton higher than in the second quarter, contributing nearly $8 million to our quarterly results. We have fully implemented our first announced price increase of $60 per ton and are making progress implementing our second $60 an ounce increase.

Our shipment volumes and production were impacted by significant operational disruptions at our Augusta mill. This was largely offset by a portion of the representation and warranty insurance settlements that we received. On that subject, we received our fourth and final representation and warranty insurance payment of $17.5 million during the quarter for a total of $73 million. As a reminder, these recoveries are related to our August acquisition, where we believe certain representations and warranties made to us were either incomplete or inaccurate.

Finally and most importantly, we completed our debt refinancing, significantly extending maturities by 5 years to 2031. This simplifies our capital structure and provides sufficient liquidity to operate our business.

Let me address the operational disruptions at our Augusta mill during the quarter. In late September and into October, the mill experienced several electrical and mechanical failures in the pulp power and recovery areas of the operation. Due to the interconnected nature of a craft pulp mill and the continuous flow of our manufacturing process, these failures have significant downstream impacts. For those of you familiar with these processes, you will understand how challenging and time-consuming it is to recover from these types of events. We continue to work through the impact of these failures, but we will recover and return the mill back to its normal production capability.

Looking ahead, we will need to invest additional capital dollars in the mill to address asset conditions that were not easily identifiable through a typical diligence process and were not accurately represented to us during the sale. As a result of these disruptions, we were unable to complete some of our planned maintenance work at the Augusta mill in October. We're planning on executing a maintenance outage in January of 2027 with an estimated cost of $12 million to $15 million. We will likely have to take additional downtime in Augusta in Q2 or Q3 of 2027 and to perform maintenance work, with that cost estimated at $7 million to $10 million.

Let me now turn to industry conditions. We are seeing signs of recovery in SBS with year-to-date shipments up 6% through the second quarter compared with declines of 2% to 3% in CUK and CRB. We believe SBS' attractive pricing on a per square foot basis, other with its strength and print characteristics as supporting substitution.

On the supply side, based on publicly available information, we estimate annualized production has decreased by around 800,000 tons since the end of last year. This is a combination of a permanent paper machine closure earlier in the year and temporary curtailments by several industry participants. Based on these assumptions, we estimate that industry operating rates should be above 90% by year-end for current operating capacity.

In terms of industry pricing, RISI has reported a $60 per ton price increase in folding carton and cup grades in July and August. We have fully implemented our first announced $60 price increase and are making good progress implementing our second increase. We see particular strength in our cup grades with customer demand exceeding our capacity. As a reminder, nearly 50% of our total volume is tied to RISI, and it generally takes us a couple of quarters to fully implement index-driven pricing. In total, our first $60 price increase is expected to result in more than $70 million in annual benefit, which started flowing through our financial results during the third quarter.

Let me now turn to imports. Total bleached imports declined by 1% year-to-date through August. We're seeing unexpected resilience in imports from Europe, even with tariffs, higher transportation costs and higher energy and chemical costs. It is likely that European competitors are facing their own supply and demand challenges in their home markets and see the North American market as an outlook for their excess capacity.

Let me summarize my industry comments. The green shoots that we mentioned in previous calls are starting to show up in our financial performance. Pricing is improving, demand and backlogs remain strong and industry operating rates are increasing. RISI SBS price index has already reflected a $60 per ton price increase, with an additional $100 per ton forecasted in folding carton grades by the end of 2027. If all these increases materialize across all our tons, we would expect our adjusted EBITDA run rate to improve by nearly $200 million, helping us get back to our target cross-cycle margins of 13% to 14%.

Lastly, I would like to provide an update on our strategy to broaden our product offering to be able to deliver a full range of paperboard options for independent converter customers. In July of this year, we launched Circa, our CRB offering in partnership with Greenpaper. We're trialing the product with several of our customers and initial feedback has been positive. Given domestic CRB overcapacity, our progress will likely be gradual. As a reminder, our CRB launch required no capital investment and we will take our time developing the right mix of strategic customer relationships versus selling spot tons.

We're continuing to make good progress on developing a CUK product offering from our Cypress Bend mill. We believe that we've developed a highly competitive folding carton grade that we're now trialing with several of our customers. Interest has been strong, and we're planning to formally launch a new CUK product line by the end of the year. As a reminder, we have engineered a capital solution that would enable us to swing the entire Cypress Bend mill this [indiscernible]. The full capital solution has an estimated cost of approximately $60 million. We're pursuing a lower cost capital alternative of approximately $3 million to $5 million. This alternative should provide us with sufficient capacity to establish a meaningful position with independent converter customers. We believe that addressable CUK demand is approximately 300,000 to 400,000 tons, and we're targeting to capture 20% to 30% at demand.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sherri to discuss our third quarter financial results in more detail and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter.

Sherri Baker

Thank you, Arsen, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to our third quarter financial performance. We reported a net loss from continuing operations of $2 million or $0.10 per diluted share, including $17.5 million of insurance proceeds. Net sales were $385 million, with shipments down 1% and a 4% decline in pricing compared with the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $24 million towards the midpoint of our guidance range of $20 million to $30 million. As Arsen mentioned earlier, operational disruptions at Augusta were mostly offset by a representation and warranty insurance reimbursement received in 2026. SG&A was at 5.2% of net sales, down from 6.2% in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting our continued focus on cost discipline. Year-to-date, we reduced net debt by $56 million, supported by $29 million in cash tax refunds, $50 million in insurance proceeds and working capital initiatives.

Let me now provide a brief update on our debt refinancing. We closed the transaction in September with our partners in the Farm Credit System. The transaction extends our maturity profile to 2031 and reduces refinancing risk, simplifies our capital structure, provides us with adequate liquidity and establishes a stable foundation to execute our long-term strategy. We used proceeds from a new $275 million term loan to redeem our 2020 notes, which were redeemed on October 3. We also replaced both the ABL and term revolver with a new $200 million revolving facility, with $15 million outstanding at quarter end. The revolver includes a $100 million accordion option that may be exercised after we file our 2027 Annual Report, subject to agreement from our Farm Credit partners.

Pricing is determined by a tiered gross leverage framework measured quarterly. As of the third quarter, our effective interest rate was 8.25% with a fixed base rate for a 1-year term.

Let me also provide an update on our recovery efforts related to representation and warranty insurance. We received a fourth and final settlement payment of $17.5 million in Q3. Year-to-date, we have recovered nearly $50 million, bringing total recoveries since the fourth quarter of 2025 to $73 million against the $105 million policy limit.

Turning to input cost inflation and tariffs. We continue to face higher cost and transportation and chemicals driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Oil-derived chemicals, particularly polyethylene have experienced increased price volatility. Transportation and wood costs have also been affected by significantly higher diesel prices. In the third quarter, we incurred approximately $12 million in higher costs related to the conflict versus last year. We expect these costs to increase by another $1 million to $2 million in the fourth quarter and continue into 2027. Our total impact from the conflict is approaching $30 million this year.

As we look at today [indiscernible] tariffs, we ship approximately 50,000 to 60,000 tons of paperboard into Canada annually. We also procure some of our inputs from Canada, particularly chemicals. At this point, both our imports and exports are largely exempt from various tariffs.

Turning now to our outlook. For the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $10 million to $20 million. We expect paperboard shipments and production to decline sequentially with normal seasonality and continued operational challenges at our Augusta mill in October. We expect our announced price increases to contribute $8 million to $12 million in the quarter sequentially. Our planned major maintenance outage at Cypress Bend is expected to result in direct expenses of $5 million to $7 million. Finally, we expect roughly $4 million of seasonal energy cost increases and [ $1 million to $2 million ] in incremental conflict-related costs, primarily in transportation and wood.

For the full year 2026, our assumptions include revenue of roughly $1.5 billion -- flat to slightly higher shipment volumes. We continue to expect approximately $70 million of carryover pricing pressure from 2025 price decreases, partially offset by $15 million to $20 million of benefit from the July and August price increases. Our productivity and restructuring efforts are expected to mostly offset higher cost including a full year conflict-related impact of $28 million to $32 million. We expect direct major maintenance outage costs of $27 million to $29 million this year, driven by Lewiston and Cypress Bend. Augusta's annual outage is now planned for January of 2021, with direct costs estimated at $12 million to $15 million. We will likely need to have an additional outage in Augusta in the second or third quarter of 2027 at a cost of $7 million to $10 million to complete necessary work.

In addition to the Augusta outage in January, Lewiston [indiscernible] is scheduled for Q2 of 2027, while Cypress Bend is scheduled for Q4 of 2027.

In terms of cash flows, we now expect to finish the year generating positive free cash flows. This is due to a combination of positive EBITDA, $50 million in insurance recoveries, $25 million to $30 million reduction in net working capital and tax refunds. Offsetting that are capital expenditures, which we are now projected to be in the $55 million to $60 million range for the year. SG&A expected to be well below our target range of 6% to 7% of net sales as we continue to focus on managing our cost structure.

Let me now turn the call over to Arsen for closing remarks.

Arsen Kitch

Thank you, Sherri. Let me close with a few thoughts on where we stand today. We have successfully refinanced our debt with our long-term partners in the Farm Credit System, establishing a strong foundation as we navigate challenging industry conditions and execute our strategy. We have continued our focus on managing costs and have been able to largely offset some of the cost headwinds that we faced this year. We're implementing our second announced price increase and are close to launching a new CUK product line. We remain confident that the industry cycle will recover. We will return to our cross-cycle target of adjusted EBITDA margins of 13% to 14% with more than $100 million of annual free cash flow.

Let me wrap up our remarks with an organizational announcement that was included in today's filing. Sherri will be leaving us in a few weeks for a new opportunity. She joined us more than 3 years ago and has been an important part of our journey. She played a key role in our strategic transformation in 2024, including securing financing for our Augusta transaction as well as in refinancing our debt last quarter. Sherri has also led the finance function through significant changes and helped us achieve our cost reduction targets over the last few years. On behalf of our Board and the rest of our organization, I would like to thank Sherri for her contributions and wish her nothing but the best in this next chapter for...

Sherri Baker

Thank you, Arsen. I want to thank everyone at Clearwater for the opportunity to be part of this organization over the past 3 years. I feel very fortunate to have worked alongside such a talented team of Clearwater enters its next chapter. My new opportunity will bring me back to my home state of Texas, both to family and friends, and I am grateful for this opportunity. I remain confident in Clearwater's ability to execute a strategy for growth and value creation, and I look forward to following the company's progress in the years ahead. Thank you for the opportunity to be part of journey.

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Sean Steuart with TD Cowen.

Let's move to the next caller. Your next call comes from the line of Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

질의응답

Michael Roxland

Sherri, wishing you the best of luck in your new role.

Sherri Baker

Thank you, Mike.

Michael Roxland

Arsen, my first question is you mentioned CUK adding tons by end of the year, somewhere in the range of 50,000 to 100,000 tons. I mean how big do you expect to CUK to ultimately be for you? And what's the timing in terms of trying to achieve that?

Arsen Kitch

Good question. Thanks, Mike. So as we mentioned previously, CUK is going to go into our Cypress Bend facility. If you recall, we've reduced production across our system, particularly in Cypress Bend. So this will help us fill out the Cypress Bend mill and it will become a swing mill for us between SBS and CUK. Until we launch the product, and we're in the market, it's hard to tell what the ramp is going to look like and what ultimately we're going to sell. But reception so far has been very positive. And I think independent converters are looking forward to having an independent -- a third independent supplier in the space offering the CUK.

Michael Roxland

Got it. Okay. In terms of CRB, obviously, it sounds like you made some headway there in terms of new partnership. What are you seeing with respect to CRB demand the weakness there? And at what price spread to SBS do you think the weakness in CRB could normalize?

Arsen Kitch

Yes, it's a good question. So we've started working with our customers and trialing the product. We think the independent market is in that few hundred thousand ton range in CRB. So kind of remains to be seen how big that business becomes for us. Meaning it's important to note this was a no capital solution where we're essentially private labeling green papers, CRB and offering our services along with it. I don't want to comment on pricing and spreads at this point between CRB and SBS. What I would tell you is on a per square foot basis. SBS has been more attractive than CRB because it takes a heavier weight CRB to replicate the performance of SBS customers typically buy by area, not by weight, which is why I think SBS has been competitive and which is why I think you've seen SBS growth here this year while the other substrates have been flat or declining.

Michael Roxland

Got it. And one just quickly, you mentioned with respect to Augusta that RWI issues that you incurred were due to reports that were not available, that were maybe you were most led on when you -- for the purchase. Can you comment on what those reps and warranties were as it relates to the electrical issues you experienced in the quarter and post quarter end? And then second question is for Sherri, how much debt do you currently have outstanding? Is it -- and then really how much interest expense should we expect on an annual basis?

Arsen Kitch

All right. Let me start with RWI. So we borrowed WI as part of the Augusta acquisition. So the limit on the policy is about $105 million. During an M&A process, the seller makes representations and warranties on assets on customer contracts and so on and forth. So as we -- after we acquired Augusta, it became clear to us that some of those representations and warranties work either incomplete or inaccurate and they deal with both customer agreements, commercial agreements, as well as assets. So in Q3, the events that occurred, the failures that occurred we were able to allocate $9.5 million of our RWI recoveries to offset the losses that we experienced in Q3 from the operational disruptions.

Sherri Baker

And then to answer your question on interest. So you should expect probably in the range of, call it, $25 million on an annual basis, you'll see something smaller than that in '26 just because of the lower interest rates that we had on the notes for the predominant amount of the year. But as you think about going forward, I'd probably use an estimate in the range of $25 million.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Steuart with TD Cowen.

Sean Steuart

Apologies for the technical problems beforehand. Congratulations, Sherri, best wishes going forward. I want to start with what's the CapEx plans. So $55 million to $60 million this year, it sounds like on the capital side, you would plan to spend more next year for Augusta. Maybe confirm that's the case? And if not, you guys have talked about $70 million to $80 million being normalized maintenance level. How long can you spend under that level before you're worried about as those other productivity issues creeping into the mix for the company?

Arsen Kitch

Sean, I think part of the $55 million to $60 million this year versus our original estimate is pushing out the Augusta outage into 2027. A lot of work -- capital work takes place during those outages. I think delaying the outage pushed some capital into 2027. So we'll spend that capital in 2027. At this point, we're not going to forecast or project capital into next year, but it will certainly be higher than this year, whether it's higher than the $70 million to $80 million that we said we'd spend across the cycle remains to be seen. But we do think there will be some additional investments in Augusta next year to take care of some of the liabilities that we've uncovered. Just don't know exactly what that's going to be yet.

Sean Steuart

Okay. And then you connected some of the dots on the maintenance schedule for next year. Is there any guide? I think we have the quarterly cadence down. But overall, maintenance expense guide for next year? Can you connect some of the dots for that number?

Arsen Kitch

Yes. Yes. So I think we said Augusta will be $12 million to $15 million in Q1 and another $7 million to $10 million Q2 or Q3. So that's somewhere in the low $20 million range, low to mid-20s in Augusta. Lewiston, I mean, I think there'll probably be something similar to what we spent this year, which was somewhere in that low $20 million range. And Cypress Bend will be -- I think we're spending $6 million, maybe it will be a little bit higher next year, maybe $7 million or $8 million. But I would expect we're probably somewhere in the $50-ish million range for next year.

Sean Steuart

Okay. And then, Sherri, just on the interest expense question again. I think you said $25 million for this year. And I think you said similar next year, and I'm hoping you can square that up. I think with the [indiscernible] and being based off the SOFR rate, it looked like the effect of interest expense is going to be up a few points. Maybe if you can reconcile the comments you made before on expected interest expense next year.

Sherri Baker

Yes. The $25 million that I was referring to is on a go-forward basis. So that would be more of the expectation for next year. This year, we'll be closer to probably around $20 million, just because we have the lower interest rate on the notes for the predominant amount of the year. But going forward, I would expect something close to $25 million.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

George Staphos

Thanks for the detail. Sherri, best of luck and congratulations. I wanted to talk about Augusta, again, can you reference whether you have any other recourse at this juncture, Arsen and Sherri, in terms of Augusta and how it's performed relative to what you thought you'd be getting? Do you have any other ability to get remuneration? Or is it at this juncture you need to spend capital to get the mill to where you want it to be?

Arsen Kitch

Yes. So George, we're done with the RWI policy. So we recovered $73 million on $105 million policy limit. I think your question is, do we have any other recourse? I think the right answer here is, we'll review all of our facts and all of our options related to the acquisition, but we won't be able to provide any additional details at this time.

George Staphos

Okay. Understand. Recognizing that the goal is to with the maintenance and with the capital you're going to put into Augusta to get it back to where you thought it would be. Can you give us some way of dimensionalizing what the EBITDA contribution from Augusta is in its current state relative to what you thought you were getting. In other words, is EBITDA, $10 million lower, $5 million lower or $20 million lower. Is there a way to have us think through what the variances at this juncture, recognizing it's going to get better.

Arsen Kitch

Yes. So George, the right way to think about it is the biggest gap in Augusta EBITDA performance is the price changes that we've seen since early 2024. So our acquisition -- in our acquisition, we believe we got $100 million worth of EBITDA in about 400-somewhat thousand tons, if I recall correctly. Since then, pricing has decreased, and I'm rounding here by a couple of hundred dollars a ton. So as you may imagine, that has a very substantial impact on the P&L. I think that's been the biggest delta versus what we expected. We have achieved our supply chain synergies. We have loaded up the mill with volume. We're making good progress on our large strategic customer in Augusta, but we've got to work through some of these asset and performance issues. I would say the mill is probably performing somewhere in the 10% to 15% below what it needs to from a production standpoint right now across the last several quarters. So we have to get that back into a normal -- kind of a normal production capability for us to be able to achieve those that EBITDA. I think in the long run, once the market recovers and we get Augusta back to normal, I think we'll be at that $150 million EBITDA contribution.

George Staphos

Okay. I was not including the pricing change because the pricing change is driven by the market, not by the mill's performance or lack of performance. So you would say 10% to 15% times 400,000 tons times some margin per ton would give us a reasonable estimate. Would that be, I don't know, $50 million, would you say, in terms of the performance you could get back if you just get the mill running the way it should be running?

Arsen Kitch

Yes. I think 10% to 15% is based off of capacity of 600,000 tons. So yes, I think you can apply the variable contribution margin to that kind of to dimensionalize what the upside is. We think we'll get there. It's just going to require more than we originally expected.

George Staphos

Of course. I just want to try 2 more questions, I'll turn it over. One on pricing and then one on -- as Sean was getting at maintenance. If I take the latter, if the maintenance negative variance $27 million versus $26 million. Would it be sort of basically what you're spending on Augusta incrementally, like $15 million in terms of if we're doing a waterfall to $27 million, would that be fair? Or am I missing something there?

Arsen Kitch

No, it's almost entirely Augusta. And then we really didn't have a -- yes.

George Staphos

Okay. That's fair. And then Arsen and Sherri on pricing, so holding the second price hike in advance right now because I don't think the trade pubs picked it up yet. Correct me if I'm wrong. On what's been recognized how much incremental pricing would you get in '27 versus '26? And then if you do get the second increase reflected, I know timing will have a little bit of an effect here, but let's say, sometime in the fourth quarter, how much incremental would you get on top of that given normal timing lags into '27?

Arsen Kitch

George, you're making me do math, but let me try it. So what we said is this year, that first price increase should deliver $15 million, $20 million of upside. And we said that full price increase is worth about $70 million on an annualized basis. So for next year, I would say this first price increase should deliver another $50 million, $55 million of upside. The second price increase, we're implementing, I think we're making good progress. Whether RISI reflects it or not, that's up to RISI. But let's just assume that price increase is fully implemented and recognized by RISI by year-end. It takes us a couple of quarters to roll through those prices into to our customers based on agreements. So if you get, let's just say 1/2 or 2/3 of that second price increase, that would be another $30 million, $40 million next year of additional pricing benefit, if that second price increase is fully recognized.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar

Congratulations, Sherri, best of luck to you in your new role. Just wanted to follow up on the CUK production at Cypress Bend and confirm, are you intending to restart that second line at Cypress Bend as CUK volumes pick up maybe in early '27? Or would you intend to run those volumes on the line that's operating today for some period of time? And if so, how should we think about what that does from a mix perspective at Cypress Bend?

Arsen Kitch

Good question. So Matt, just a small clarification. We have one paper machine in Cypress Bend. So our intent is to create swing capacity and to campaign the machine between the 2 grades. If we get into that 20%, 30% of demand, addressable demand, you're probably in the 50,000 to 100,000 ton range. We would just fit it in on our schedules in Cypress Bend and that machine would run SBS and the campaign and swing to CUK. Our goal is to get that mill 100% utilized to 300-some-odd thousand tons of its on capacity.

Matthew McKellar

Okay. Great. And then just quickly wanted to touch on SG&A as well. It seems like your run rate there has been pretty favorable compared to where expectations were. Is that a pretty sustainable run rate here for the next few quarters? Or anything we should be thinking about that develops from here just in the near term.

Arsen Kitch

I think it's pretty sustainable. I think we've been very cost focused. Setting aside any kind of cost of living changes or incentive compensation changes, I think this is a fairly sustainable SG&A cost structure for the time being.

Operator

We have one more question from George Staphos.

George Staphos

Just a quick question further on Cypress Bend. So what did you find that you could do in terms of the second version of the CUK implementation as opposed to going with the -- in the less costly version versus I think, Arsen, so it said would be a $60 million project if you had the full ability to swing? What was it that you found? And what will you be able to do? And what won't you be able to do when Cypress Bend is up and running with that capability?

Arsen Kitch

Yes. So let me tell you what I think we'll be able to do is we'll be able to deliver a very high-quality CUK product that matches up to what the 2 largest players in the space are providing. So we -- and that's our goal. That's what we want to launch into the market. The trade-off between the full $60 million project and what we are doing is going to be around speed as well as total available capacity at the mill. The $60 million solution would enable the mill to run on CUK at its current speeds with this much smaller capital investment, I think we'll be more limited in terms of speed and as well as potentially have some higher costs associated with the product that we make.

That being said, I think the trade-off is worth it, especially as we're launching a new product line. And it helps us fill out some open capacity we have at the mill, which price -- if you do the analysis on variable contribution margin makes it very, very attractive.

Operator

We have now reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.