캐나디안 솔라(CSIQ) 2026년 2분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 7,700만 달러 손실 및 미국 HJT 양산 확대

핵심 요약

• 캐나디안 솔라(CSIQ)는 2026년 2분기 매출이 12억 달러로 경영진 가이던스 상단에 도달했으며, 13.9%의 총마진율을 기록했다고 발표했습니다.
• 동사는 7,700만 달러의 주주 귀속 순손실, 즉 주당 1.40달러를 기록했으며, 이는 제퍼슨빌 태양광 셀 시설의 운임 상승과 가동 확대 비용이 수익성에 부담을 주었기 때문입니다.
• 태양광 모듈 매출 인식 규모는 3.1GW에 달했습니다. 에너지 저장 장치 출하량은 총 3.7GWh였으며, 매출로 인식된 물량은 3.3GWh로 북미 인도 가속화에 힘입어 경영진의 저장 장치 가이던스를 상회했습니다.
• 캐나디안 솔라는 미국 HJT 태양광 셀 시설을 개설하고 1단계 생산 능력을 2.1GWp로 확대하고 있습니다. 1단계 전면 양산은 10월 1일로 예정되어 있으며, 2단계를 통해 전체 생산 능력이 2027년까지 6.3GWp로 확대될 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 계약 수주 잔고는 13GWp를 상회하고 금액으로는 45억 달러를 초과하여 2029년까지의 미국산 HJT 및 TOPCon 모듈 물량을 포함합니다. e-STORAGE 수주 잔고는 35억 달러를 나타냈습니다.
• 경영진은 2026년 3분기 매출 가이던스로 13억~15억 달러, 총마진율로 13.5%~15.5%, 모듈 물량으로 3.5~3.8GW, 저장 장치 인도량으로 3.4~3.8GWh를 제시했습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 성과

태양광 제조

캐나디안 솔라(Canadian Solar)는 3.1GW 규모의 태양광 모듈 매출을 인식했으며, 이는 견조한 미국 물량의 지원을 받았습니다. 분기 모듈 출하량의 절반 가까이가 북미로 향했습니다.

제조 부문은 4,900만 달러의 영업손실을 기록했으며, 이는 단위당 운송 비용 증가와 제퍼슨빌 시설 가동 확대 관련 비용을 반영한 것입니다. 경영진은 1단계가 완료되고 2단계가 진행됨에 따라 이러한 비용이 정상화되어 모듈 마진 개선을 뒷받침할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

제퍼슨빌 HJT 셀 시설은 1단계 가동을 2.1GWp 수준으로 확대하고 있으며, 10월 1일에 본격적인 양산이 예정되어 있습니다. 2단계를 위한 장비 설치는 연내 시작될 예정으로, 총 명목 생산능력은 2027년에 6.3GWp에 달할 예정입니다. 캐나디안 솔라는 텍사스주 메스퀴트 모듈 시설도 확장하고 있습니다.

이 회사는 13GWp가 넘는 미국산 HJT 및 TOPCon N타입 양면 모듈 공급 계약을 2029년까지 체결했습니다. 수주 잔고는 45억 달러를 넘어서며, 미국 전력 회사, 민간 발전 사업자, 개발사 및 EPC 기업들과의 계약이 포함되어 있습니다.

에너지 저장

에너지 저장 장치 출하량은 3.7GWh에 달한 반면, 매출은 3.3GWh에 대해 인식되었습니다. 이는 400MWh가 넘는 내부 프로젝트 배정 물량을 제외한 수치입니다. 미국과 캐나다의 2개 프로젝트가 예상보다 빠르게 진행되면서 인도량이 전망치를 상회했습니다.

e-STORAGE는 이번 분기를 35억 달러의 수주 잔고로 마감했으며, 여기에는 34GWh규모의 프로젝트에 대한 장기 서비스 계약이 포함됩니다. 동사는 또한 500MW/2.5GWh 규모의 직류(DC) 저장 프로젝트에 대한 미국 전력회사 계약을 확보했으며, 이는 데이터센터 전력망 인프라 및 복원력을 지원하도록 설계되었습니다.

캐나디안 솔라(Canadian Solar)는 현재 5MWh를 20피트 컨테이너 규격으로 제공하는 SolBank 3.0을 양산 중입니다. 경영진은 2027년부터 동일한 규격에서 6.25MWh를 제공하는 SolBank 4.0을 출하할 계획입니다.

리커런트 에너지

리커런트 에너지는 2분기에 1억 1,700만 달러의 매출을 기록했습니다. 일부 프로젝트 매각이 2026년 하반기로 이월되면서 매출은 전분기 대비 감소했습니다. 해당 사업 부문은 1,900만 달러의 영업손실을 기록했으며, 여기에는 2,400만 달러의 손상차손이 포함되었고, 이는 향후 진행될 중남미 프로젝트 매각과 관련이 있습니다.

운영 측면의 주요 성과로는 스페인 내 426MW 규모 태양광 자산의 상업 운전 개시와 호주 내 150MW 규모 카워프(Carwarp) 프로젝트의 전력망 연결이 포함되며, 해당 프로젝트는 마이크로소프트와의 장기 전력 구매 계약(PPA)을 바탕으로 추진됩니다.

리커런트 에너지는 또한 6억 9,500만 달러 규모의 건설 금융 및 지분 패키지를 마감했습니다. 이는 캘리포니아에 위치한 330MW 코발트(Cobalt) 태양광 시설을 위한 것입니다.

2026년 6월 30일 기준, 리커런트 에너지는 약 6GW의 태양광 및 13GWh의 에너지 저장 장치에 대한 전력망 계통 연계를 확보했습니다(가동 중인 프로젝트 제외). 전체 개발 파이프라인은 거의 22GW의 태양광 및 84GWh의 에너지 저장 장치에 이릅니다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 하반기 미국 태양광 및 에너지 저장 장치(ESS) 출하량이 가속화되어 남은 분기마다 전분기 대비 출하량이 늘어날 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 또한 리커런트 에너지(Recurrent Energy)는 2분기에서 지연된 프로젝트 매각을 완료해 3분기에 전분기 대비 더 견조한 실적을 거둘 수 있도록 뒷받침할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

캐나디안 솔라(Canadian Solar)가 제퍼슨빌 공장에 2단계 설비를 도입하고, 메스킷 모듈 공장의 생산 능력을 두 배로 늘리며, 셸비빌 에너지 저장 장치 공장을 증설함에 따라 하반기 설비 투자는 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 운송 및 물류: 상승한 운송비가 2분기 수익성에 악영향을 미쳤습니다. 경영진은 미국 내 생산 시설 구축(온쇼어링)을 통해 시간이 지남에 따라 해외 운송비 리스크가 줄어들 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.
• 제조 실행력: 제퍼슨빌 공장의 생산 확대(램프업)로 인해 단기 비용이 발생했으며, 여러 미국 내 증설 프로젝트를 진행하기 위해 하반기 상당한 규모의 설비 투자가 필요한 상황입니다.
• 정책 불확실성: 경영진은 수입 폴리실리콘 및 파생 제품에 대한 신규 무역확장법 232조 프레임워크가 전반적으로 유익하다고 평가했지만, 세부 시행 방안과 당사의 제조 공제 자격 여부는 여전히 미국 상무부와의 논의 과제로 남아 있습니다.
• 프로젝트 매각 시기: 이연된 리커런트 에너지 거래로 인해 2분기 매출이 감소했으나, 향후 자산 현금화는 자본 순환 및 부채 감축에 지속적으로 중요한 역할을 할 것입니다.
• 재무제표 압박: 프로젝트 건설 자금 조달이 늘어나면서 총부채가 71억 달러로 증가했습니다. 경영진은 자산 현금화를 통해 개발 사업 부문의 부채 비율을 낮출 것으로 예상하는 반면, 미국 내 투자 재원을 마련하기 위해 제조 관련 부채는 늘어날 것으로 보고 있습니다.
• 환율 리스크: 이번 분기 위안화 가치 상승(강세)으로 인해 900만 달러의 외환 손실이 발생했습니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

무역확장법 232조 관련 가격 및 계약 조정

경영진은 45억 달러를 넘어서는 미국 모듈 수주 잔고에 신규 무역확장법 232조 발표 관련 조정 사항이 아직 반영되지 않았다고 밝혔습니다. 계약에는 법률 변경 및 조정 조항이 포함되어 있으며, 경영진은 고객 계약이 개정됨에 따라 수주 잔고의 가치가 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

당사는 정책 발표가 최근에 이루어졌고 관련 지침이 아직 나오지 않았다는 점을 들어 예상 가격 인상 폭을 수치화하지 않았습니다. 그럼에도 불구하고 경영진은 이 프레임워크가 CSI 솔라(CSI Solar)의 이익 증대에 기여할 것으로 보고 있으며, 명시된 12월 4일 시행일 이전에 인도가 가속화될 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.

관세 완화 가능성

경영진은 메스킷 모듈 공장, 제퍼슨빌 셀 공장 및 셸비빌 에너지 저장 장치 공장에 대한 투자를 근거로 캐나디안 솔라가 관세 감면 혜택을 받을 자격이 있다고 판단하고 있습니다. 당사는 미국 상무부 절차를 통해 신청할 계획이지만, 혜택의 규모나 시기는 확인하지 않았습니다.

경영진은 캐나디안 솔라가 설비 투자와 관련된 환급금을 전액 받지 못하더라도 최소 수입 가격 제도가 미국 내 모듈 가격을 지지할 수 있다고 덧붙였습니다.

R&D 지출 및 지식재산권

경영진은 R&D 지출이 일반적으로 전체 매출의 1%~2%를 차지한다고 밝혔습니다. 당사는 미국 내 제조 및 공정 R&D 역량을 강화하고 있으며, 캐나다는 전력 전자기기, 인버터, PCS 및 에너지 저장 장치 관련 지식재산권(IP)의 중요한 거점으로 유지되고 있습니다.

HJT 전략 및 우주 태양광

경영진은 캐나디안 솔라의 기존 기술 전문성, 해당 공정의 낮은 노동력 필요량, TOPCon 대비 상대적으로 명확한 지식재산권 구도 등을 이유로 미국 셀 생산에 HJT를 선택했다고 밝혔다.

이 회사는 비공개 우주 및 위성 파트너들과 HJT 기반 우주 태양광 응용 분야에서 협력하고 있다. 경영진은 단기적으로 의미 있는 규모의 확대를 기대하지 않으며, 현재 2029년 초도 출하를 계획하고 있다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Canadian Solar's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Melissa and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I'd now like to turn the call over to Wina Wang, Head of Investor Relations at Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.

Wina Wang

Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone to Canadian Solar's second quarter 2026 conference call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied with slides which are available on Canadian Solar's Investor Relations website within the Events and Presentations section. Joining us today are Colin Parkin, CEO, [ Dylan Marks ], CEO of Canadian Solar subsidiary Recurrent Energy, [ Simbo Jules ], Senior VP and CFO, and Dr. [ Sean Hsu ], Executive Chairman and CTO. All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks.

On this call, Colin will deliver key messages for the quarter, [ Dylan Marks ] will share updates for Recurrent Energy, [ Simbo Jules ] will go through the financial results, and [ Sean Hsu ] will discuss sustainability and technology highlights. Colin will conclude the prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions.

Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management's estimates as of today. Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law.

A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G regarding generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals. GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data provided in accordance with GAAP. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's CEO, Colin Parkin. Colin, please go ahead.

Colin Parkin

Thank you, Wina, and thank you all for joining our second quarter earnings call. Beginning on slide 3, we recognized on 3.1 gigawatts of solar modules within guidance. We exceeded our storage guidance, shipping 3.7 gigawatt-hours and recognizing revenue on 3.3 gigawatt-hours within the quarter. Revenue totaled $1.2 billion at the high end of guidance. Gross margin was in line with guidance at 13.9%. Profitability was impacted by elevated freight costs from ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. We also faced near-term ramp-up costs for our solar cell manufacturing facility in Jeffersonville. These factors led to a net loss attributable to shareholders of $77 million or $1.40 per share.

Turning now to slide 4. Our manufacturing segment remains the key driver of our financial performance today, also where our strategic priorities lie. In our solar business, we continue to prioritize high-margin regions. We shipped nearly half of our quarterly module volumes to our North America home base. In our energy storage business, we are scaling rapidly and executing well globally. In a single quarter, we delivered to utility-scale projects across North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. We outperformed guidance due to accelerated deliveries for 2 projects in the U.S. and Canada. Higher unit shipping costs and ramp-up expenses led to an operating loss of $49 million. As we finish ramping Phase 1 of our solar cell facility and expand through Phase 2, these costs will normalize. We expect overall module margins to improve as a result.

Now turning to slide 5. A major highlight this quarter was the official opening of our state-of-the-art HJT solar cell facility. This marks a historic milestone. Canadian Solar is now the first commercially operational HJT manufacturer in the United States. We are also proud of the facility's meaningful impact and contribution to the local economy and community. We are currently ramping up Phase 1 capacity to 2.1 gigawatt-peak. Phase 1 is set to enter full-scale production on October 1st. Before the end of the year, we will begin installing equipment for Phase 2, which will bring our Jeffersonville total nameplate cell capacity to 6.3 gigawatt-peak in 2027. This facility will be the largest crystalline silicon cell manufacturing plant in North America.

Paired with our 10 gigawatt-peak module facility in Texas, [ CSI Solar ] solidifies its place as one of North America's largest and premier integrated photovoltaic manufacturers. These expansions are backed up by strong customer demand for our high-performance U.S. solar products, which offer valuable domestic content benefits. Turning please to slide 6. [ CSI Solar ] has secured over 13 gigawatt-peak in contracted backlog for our domestically manufactured HJT and TOPCon N-type bifacial modules. Deliveries are scheduled through 2029. This backlog includes multiple long-term master service agreements with leading U.S. utilities, IPPs, developers, and EPCs. These commitments continue to grow daily and already represent north of $4.5 billion in value.

On the policy front, President Trump released a new Section 232 announcement this month, which is focused on imported polysilicon and its derivative products. We view this new policy structure as supportive of our long-term investment in domestic manufacturing. Key details include minimum import pricing, tariff provisions, and potential manufacturing offsets for companies investing in domestic manufacturing capacity. The Department of Commerce will work to approve U.S. investment plans. We will continue to be in active, constructive, ongoing dialogue with the Department of Commerce, and will continue to participate throughout the 120-day implementation period. Our current evaluation indicates that these measures will reinforce U.S. solar pricing, and we are actively working with our customers to navigate this period of uncertainty. Overall, we view this policy direction as net positive for Canadian Solar, and we welcome the administration's support for American industrial growth.

Now turning to slide 7. For e-STORAGE, we shipped 3.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage solutions this quarter and recognized revenue on 3.3 gigawatt-hours after accounting for the more than 400 megawatt-hours to internal projects under execution. At the end of this quarter, our contracted backlog stood at $3.5 billion. This includes long-term service agreements covering 34 gigawatt-hours of contracted projects. We see demand from data centers transitioning from conversations to contracted opportunities. Earlier this year, e-STORAGE secured a contract with a major U.S. utility for a 500-megawatt, 2.5-gigawatt-hour DC project designed to support data center grid infrastructure and resiliency.

Energy-intensive data centers and their stakeholders face 2 primary hurdles: securing power and maintaining grid stability. Interconnection approvals and transmission builds require years to complete. Battery energy storage unlocks the higher throughput from existing infrastructure, responds dynamically to load swings, fortifies grid resilience, and protects mission-critical computing hardware from power disruption. For on-site behind-the-meter facilities, energy storage integrates seamlessly with other generation technology, including natural gas and renewable power generation. We are actively engaging with data center hyperscalers, developers, and utility customers to deliver solutions that help overcome these challenges.

Our market value extends well beyond supplying batteries. We produce our own battery cells, design the SolBank platform, integrate the power conversion and proprietary energy management controls, deliver full EPC and commissioning services, and provide ongoing support through long-term service agreements. This end-to-end full-stack model offers customers a single, accountable partner while supplying us with real-world operating data to refine future solutions. Now let me hand the call over to [ Dylan Marks ] to review updates for Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. [ Dylan Marks ], please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Colin. Starting on slide 8, we generated $117 million of revenue in the second quarter. Revenue declined sequentially, primarily because several project sales moved into the second half of the year. Electricity sales revenue rose quarter-over-quarter, supported by the commercial operation of a large solar asset in Spain. With muted project sales during the quarter and a $24 million impairment charge related to an upcoming project sale in Latin America, operating expenses rose quarter-over-quarter. As a result, we recorded an operating loss of $19 million. Despite the lowered financial performance, we continued to hit key operational milestones throughout the second quarter.

Earlier in the quarter, we brought a 426-megawatt solar asset in Spain into commercial operation, which began contributing recurring energy. Our partnerships with leading global technology companies further validate our development platform. In Australia, we recently connected the 150-megawatt [ Carwarp ] project, which is backed by a long-term power purchase agreement with Microsoft. We also continue to secure competitive, large-scale project financing. Recently, we closed a $695 million construction financing equity package for our 330-megawatt [ cobalt ] solar facility in California. MUFG and NORD/LB provided the construction loans while Wells Fargo provided the tax equity.

Turning to slide 9 for our portfolio pipeline update. As of June 30, 2026, we have secured grid interconnections for approximately 6 gigawatts of solar and 13 gigawatt-hours of energy storage globally, excluding projects already in operation. Our total development pipeline stands at nearly 22 gigawatts of solar and 84 gigawatt-hours of energy storage. Our strategy for this pipeline remains focused on high-quality, high-margin opportunities that drive real value, actively pruning lower-margin assets. For instance, we scaled back our EMEA pipeline following detailed evaluations of permitting, technical, and commercial viability. At the same time, we are moving decisively where we see attractive upside.

Our team is actively positioning us to compete in Brazil's upcoming energy storage auction, which expanded our early-stage pipeline in Latin America. For the second half of the year, our priority remains the selective monetization of certain operating assets under construction and development assets. These transactions are intended to support our capital recycling strategy, improve financial flexibility, and address leverage levels over time while preserving our ability to invest in high-return growth opportunities. Now, let me hand the call over to [ Simbo Jules ] who will go through our financial results in more detail. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, [ Dylan Marks ]. Beginning on slide 10. In the second quarter, we recognized revenue on 3.1 gigawatts of modules and 3.3 gigawatt-hours of energy storage solutions, both sequentially higher. Module performance was bolstered by strong U.S. volumes. We beat storage guidance due to accelerated project deliveries in North America. Despite light contributions from Recurrent Energy due to deferred project sales, solid execution in the manufacturing segment lifted total revenue to $1.2 billion, reaching the high end of our guidance. Gross margin was 13.9%, in line with guidance. The sequential and year-over-year margin drops reflect 2 non-recurring items: the tariff refund benefits recognized last quarter and second, the release of unrealized profit upon sales of a U.S. project in the prior year period.

Operating expenses rose 21% sequentially. This was driven by a combination of elevated freight rates and non-logistic ramp-up costs at our Jeffersonville solar cell plant. Net interest expense rose to $43 million from $36 million in the first quarter, primarily due to lower capitalized interest. We recorded a net foreign exchange loss of $9 million, primarily driven by strong appreciation in the Chinese yuan. [ CSI Solar ] recorded a $41 million mark-to-market gain in investment income from its equity investment in a battery equipment company, helping buffer our bottom line. As a result, Canadian Solar recorded a total net loss attributable to shareholders of $77 million, or $1.40 per share.

Now let's turn to cash flow and the balance sheet on slide 11. Net cash flow used in operating activities during the second quarter of 2026 was $181 million, driven primarily by changes in working capital. Total assets grew to $16.1 billion. This increase primarily reflects ongoing consumption of U.S. solar and storage projects, along with inventory expansion to support our U.S. manufacturing strategy. Total debt increased to $7.1 billion, mainly from non-recourse construction financing for solar and storage projects under Recurrent Energy in the U.S. As we monetize operating under-construction and development assets, we expect to deleverage the project's development business.

At the same time, our manufacturing segment will take on incremental debt to fund strategic U.S. manufacturing investments, which we expect to expand profitability and cash flow in 2027 and beyond. Capital expenditures in the second quarter were $172 million, primarily directed toward our [ U.S. manufacturing ] initiatives. We anticipate full-year 2026 CapEx to total around $1.3 billion. This implies higher capital outlays in the second half as we begin Phase 2 equipment installation at Jeffersonville, double capacity at our Mesquite module plant, and scale up our energy storage facility in Shelbyville. We closed the quarter with a cash balance of $1.9 billion, providing us with solid liquidity to execute on our strategic priorities. Now let me turn the call to [ Sean Hsu ], who will discuss our sustainability achievements and the technology roadmap. [ Sean Hsu ], please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, [ Simbo Jules ]. Turning to slide 12. In June, we published our 2025 Corporate Sustainability Report. This highlights our commitment to driving the global clean energy transition through sustainable and responsible business practices. The report tracks our focus on value-driven growth. Notably, the Science Based Targets initiative validated our net-zero greenhouse gas target. We also advanced our resource efficiency, achieving significant energy and water savings alongside 2 zero-carbon factory certifications. Furthermore, we reinforced our supply chain transparency and ethical labor standards. These efforts are backed by independent audits and certifications across our manufacturing footprint and key suppliers. Overall, this report demonstrates that environmental, social responsibility, and strong governance are fundamental to how we build long-term stakeholder value.

At the core of everything we do is technological innovation. Turning to slide 13, we continue to execute a multi-generation technology roadmap across both solar PV and energy storage solutions. Starting with solar PV, our near-term priority through 2028 is the mass production and optimization of our next-generation HJT, our heterojunction, and TOPCon architectures. Across our commercial, utility, C&I, and residential markets, we are scaling module efficiency from 23.2% up to 24.4%, while aggressively reducing silver consumption from 6.5 milligrams per watt down to 3 milligrams per watt to drive down this key input cost. Looking slightly further ahead, we expect mass production of our premium TBC architecture by 2028. Designed primarily for the premium residential market, TBC aims to deliver efficiencies between 24.8% and 25.2% with ultra-low silver usage of just 1 to 2 milligrams per watt.

Beyond terrestrial single-junction silicon, we approach physical limits at around 25% to 26% module efficiency. For applications and multi-junction technologies, we have already begun collaborating on space PV opportunities using our HJT cell technology with planned shipments in 2029 for extreme space environments where radiation tolerance and thermal cycling resilience are critical. For long-term utility-scale expansion, our ultimate efficiency frontier lies in tandem cells, targeted for commercial shipments in 2030 to break through the 30% module efficiency barrier. Given that Perovskite reliability will require another 5 to 10 years of validation before large-scale ground deployment, space applications may well serve as the initial commercial stepping stones to these next-generation tandem structures.

Turning to our energy storage and power electronics roadmap on slide 14. We are building a foundation for sustainable, high-density, and long-duration storage assets. We are currently mass-producing SolBank 3.0, which delivers 5 megawatt-hours of capacity in a standard 20-foot enclosure using 314 Ah LFP cells. We will soon begin shipping the next iteration, SolBank 4.0, starting in 2027. This solution increases energy density by 25%, delivering 6.25 megawatt-hours in the same 20-foot footprint utilizing high-capacity 588 Ah LFP cells. To complement these larger battery systems, our solar electronics hardware is scaling in tandem. We are transitioning from our air-cooled mid-voltage [ SCET 1.0 ] to our liquid-cooled mid-voltage [ SCET 2.0 ], which integrates 32 of our 450-kilowatt inverters to achieve 14.4 megawatts in a 40-foot layout.

Further out on our 2030 roadmap, we're exploring solid-state transformers at 2.5 megawatts, 34.5 kilovolts AC to 800 volts DC solutions, achieving over 98.35% conversion efficiency that has the potential to replace traditional PCS units and integrate directly into BESS platforms as cost and reliability mature. To address long-duration storage and harsh environment requirements at a potentially lower levelized cost of storage, or LCOS, we are actively validating our containerized sodium-ion platform. This will eventually deliver an exceptional cycle life of over 15,000 cycles. [ 3D MIME ] technologies offer compelling structural advantages, abundant raw materials free from geopolitical restraints, superior performance in extreme cold temperatures, and simplified cooling requirements that could meaningfully reduce long-term operational expenditures. It also delivers important safety advantages such as significantly reduced thermal runaway risk.

We are also developing a high-capacity energy storage product designed for deployment inside AI Data Center server rooms to deliver millisecond-scale energy management solutions. Ultimately, unifying these solar and storage developments advances our vision of Canadian Solar as a total energy technologies provider. By pairing these technology roadmaps with robust end-to-end capabilities and full visibility across our supply chain, we are uniquely positioned to deliver the mission-critical clean energy infrastructure of tomorrow to our global customers. We will unveil more cutting-edge energy technologies in the future, so stay tuned. Now, let me turn the call back to Colin, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook. Colin, please go ahead.

Colin Parkin

Thank you, [ Sean Hsu ]. Turning now to slide 15. For the third quarter of 2026, we expect to recognize revenue from 3.5 to 3.8 gigawatts of solar modules. We expect energy storage deliveries to range between 3.4 and 3.8 gigawatt-hours. Driven by sequentially higher manufacturing volumes, we project third-quarter revenue to be between $1.3 and $1.5 billion, with gross margin expected to range between 13.5% and 15.5%. We anticipate U.S. solar and storage shipments to accelerate in the second half, with each remaining quarter delivering higher volumes than the last. At Recurrent Energy, we expect to finalize the project sales delayed from the second quarter. This will drive a sequentially stronger third quarter. For the full year of 2026, we reiterate our U.S. volume guidance of 6.5 to 7 gigawatts of module shipments and 4.5 to 5.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage shipments. With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer and Company. Please proceed with your question.

질의응답

Colin Rusch

Sean, if you look at the roadmap that you just articulated from the technology perspective, it's pretty robust. There's a lot of activity. I want to understand 2 dynamics. One, just trend lines on overall spending on the R&D line to bring all of this to fruition. Then secondarily, where from a regionalization perspective, where is that work going to happen and where is the IP going to sit as you bring, it looks like, 5 or 6 pretty significant technology evolutions to market.

Unknown Executive

Yes, Colin, thank you. Because our revenue base is big, although the R&D spending is significant, typically it's around 1% to 2% of the total revenue. So we are controlling it well.

Colin Rusch

And from an IP perspective, is that going to sit in the U.S.? Is it going to sit outside the U.S.? Is it not a concern, is it more around just know-how and understanding how to manufacture these things where you guys feel like you have an advantage?

Unknown Executive

Yes, Colin, this is a good question. Yes, we develop more and more the manufacturing and also process R&D capabilities in the U.S. We're seeing more and more IP sit with the U.S. Meanwhile, we also developed a lot of good technology in Canada. I also see more and more IP in Canada, especially the IP related to the power electronics and either from inverter to the PCS or the energy storage system.

Colin Rusch

Excellent. And just the follow-up here is really around shipping expense and kind of practical ways that you guys can manage that or start passing that on in a more material way to customers here over the next 6 to 12 months.

Colin Parkin

Good morning, Colin. Thanks for the question. Colin here. Regarding the shipping expense, we do build that into our contracts and pass that along. But of course, the dynamic of the shipping cost, logistics costs start to change when we look at this continuing to scale in North America. Obviously, we don't have as significant overseas freight. So we'll start to see that shipping costs start to decrease just primarily due to the onshoring in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Maheep Mandloi

One question on that, you talked about the 13 gigawatts of bookings through '29. The pricing seems to be in mid-30 cents per watt. Could you clarify if that already includes any impact of this new Section 232 on polysilicon? If not, then what prices are you seeing and is there any flexibility to go to the existing customers on higher prices if the spot prices move up on Section 232?

Colin Parkin

Good morning, Maheep. Thanks for the question, Colin here. And we have Thomas on the line as well, but I'll start. Our contracts are structured with change in law and adjustment mechanisms with all this anticipated. So what we see is this is all very new. I think, as you know, this is only fresh in the last couple of weeks with the new Poly 232. But we already see the market adjusting. We think it will definitely drive for accelerated deliveries in the second half of this year in advance of the proclamation implementation, I think on December 4th. We're going to see a rush and with that, it's driving an increase in price and correlating demand.

So we are seeing that start to adjust. We are seeing the market start to adjust, but it is a relatively new change to the market. But I think overall from Canadian Solar's standpoint with the backlog that we mentioned, the 13 gigawatts backlog, it shows a strong demand for our U.S.-based products, and our customers are certainly willing to work with us as they have to adjust as well. Thomas, do you have anything to add on top of that?

Thomas Koerner

Sure. So good morning. Colin is spot on. The only comment I would make is that this backlog and the respective revenue value does not include a 232 adjustment yet. So this is going to increase and grow further as we're adjusting contracts and agreements with customers, but it includes, of course, a certain portion of down payment, certain shipment costs, some are further away, some are closer away, so you can take that all into account. But the 232 announcement will push the respective value upwards as we discuss and readjust and renegotiate with customers. I hope this answers your question.

Maheep Mandloi

Maybe just like a different follow-up on the tariff or the duty exemption issue with domestic CapEx. Just want to understand how much could we expect on that for you guys for CapEx? I think there's some language on that exemption is only applicable for new CapEx. So just curious if the R&D CapEx would be applicable or just certain CapEx.

Unknown Executive

Well, the policy 232 does allow the U.S. manufacturing project to offset the tariff duties. So as Colin said, we will actively engage with the Department of Commerce and we'll try to go through this process. And yes, we will apply for the tariff and the MIP exemptions related to our U.S. manufacturing products.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Philip Shen

As a follow-up to Maheep's second question on the tariff rebate program, Sean, you just mentioned that you have good standing with the Commerce Department. So I was wondering if you might be able to elaborate on that, and specifically, do you expect to qualify for the tariff rebate program? And if so, can you give us some color on why and how?

Unknown Executive

Well, we do expect we are qualified. We qualify for the tariff relief program because we are the one who invest and really invested into U.S. manufacturing through our solar module factory in Mesquite and also the solar cell factory in Jeffersonville, plus the energy storage factory in Shelbyville. So we are putting real dollars into onshoring the U.S. manufacturing. So we believe we are qualified. As I mentioned, we will go through the process. So I guess I shouldn't comment too much before we finish the dialogue and the process with the Department of Commerce.

Philip Shen

And then earlier, Colin and Thomas talked about pricing already moving. And so I was wondering if you guys might be able to quantify the magnitude of the price increase that you've seen thus far and then where you expect things to change. So if your existing bookings are at X, do you think we see a $0.05 move in pricing to the upside? Or do you think it's $0.10 or maybe more?

Colin Parkin

Philip, I think we're just like everybody else. We're monitoring the market and seeing what the opportunity looks like. I think it might be a little premature for us to speculate how fast those changes and the magnitude. So I think we're only a week or 2 into this new proclamation and we're still waiting for, as a matter of fact, expecting new guidance to come. So that could also shape things as well. So I'd hesitate to give a specific amount, but I can tell you that we do feel it's going to be accretive to [ CSI Solar ] overall.

Philip Shen

One last follow-up. As it relates back to the tariff rebates program based on U.S. CapEx, what happens and what do you guys do if you cannot qualify for that tariff rebate program?

Unknown Executive

Well, that's a good question. I think the MIP requirements will help to strengthen the U.S. manufacturers' advantages. The overall price will go up. If the overall solar module price goes up, it will help us even in the case that we don't fully receive the rebate related to our CapEx. So overall, without rebate, I think that this decision will be accretive to [ CSI Solar ] and any real, meaningful manufacturers investing in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Alan Lau

I asked management about the recent policy coming out from the White House last night on the Bulk-Power System. So we'd like to know, because Canadian Solar actually has a battery cell plant in the U.S. So what's your view on complying to that U.S. manufacturing requirement, especially in relation to energy storage?

Colin Parkin

Alan, I would like to just hold off responding on that because it's something very new and we haven't had a chance to fully study that. I will just generally say that in all respects, our ability to comply to U.S. requirements is strong generally because our supply chain has already evolved to supporting the domestic content requirements and our U.S. manufacturing plans have been structured around that. I don't want to comment on such a recent policy change, but I would only say that at the moment, I expect we'll be able to address any changes.

Alan Lau

So we got into another previous FTC investigation. I think there were a couple of clarifications I think on the 20th of August on basically for inverters that were produced in the U.S. and is eligible for 45X would not be classified as currently produced. So I recall the company previously was having third-party as a supplier for inverters, but also the company is also starting to do PCS as well. So I wonder if management has any comment in regards to FTC previous restrictions on this one.

Colin Parkin

Yes, Alan, a good question. First of all, our inverters are not currently being moved into the U.S., so it's not an issue for us in terms of our current supply chain. But as you mentioned, we do procure significant amounts of third-party inverters, PCS for example, and we are actively involved with our supply chain to ensure that they meet all the FCC requirements and or have the path to have those FCC requirements in place. We don't see any issues with any of our business activities at this time related to the recent changes. There's just recent clarification provided with respect to the communication protocols, which we're looking at very carefully, but we don't see any impact to our business at the moment with respect to the new SEC requirements.

Unknown Executive

I would like to add a little bit color comment on top of what Colin just said. We also noticed that the new guidance and FCC said anything qualified for the 45X, which means qualified for the local manufacturing and eligible for 45X, will be considered domestic. Therefore, will not require FCC approval. I think this is a very interesting policy clarification. As you mentioned, we do have our own PCS, we have that technology center in Canada. So we have started to actively look into the feasibility of manufacturing that PCS and inverter in the U.S. utilizing the advantage that Canadian Solar already has, [ CSI Solar ], which is the 45X qualified structure in the U.S. So yes, we are actively reviewing the feasibility of that.

Alan Lau

Because I recall the company actually got a very strong record in the U.S. manufacturing and has already secured 45X credits for other products like modules already. So that might actually be a positive opportunity for a company to take share. So that's why the question is coming from. So switching gears to the technology path, because I noticed that Sean has spent quite a lot of time, I think that is quite new I think in this quarterly results. I would like to know, because Sean has mentioned about space PV, so I suspect if there has already been some form of discussion with major clients in the aerospace industry or it's more a product development stage or there's actually already some early stage navigation already?

Unknown Executive

Yes, space PV is a very interesting direction, although I don't expect it to come to a meaningful scale next year. But in the long run, space is what everybody is looking at, including myself. Canadian Solar is a strong participant in the HJT or heterojunction cell architecture, and this is what the industry considers very favorable for silicon-based space PV applications. And the research so far shows that the p-type heterojunction will have better tolerance to the high-energy particle radiation bombardment in space. Therefore, p-type heterojunction, especially the HJT, is considered to be a leading candidate for silicon-based solar cell applications in space.

So we do manufacture the p-type. As you know, the Jeffersonville solar cell factory adopted the HJT solar cell structure. And so far we use n-type for the HJT for terrestrial applications, however, it's very easy for us to convert that into p-type. And we already use very thin wafers. And the wafer to be processed in our Jeffersonville factory averages at 110 micrometer thickness, which is one of the thinnest wafers used for commercial production. Now also on the R&D side, we have designed and processed even thinner, to a 50-micron thickness with p-type for heterojunctions and very successful, so we can supply that. So we are at the leading front of space PV. Now we are talking to other space and satellite, especially the satellite companies, about this application. We are collaborating. Now I can't disclose the customer name, but now we have close collaborations with space-related partners.

Alan Lau

So it's also interesting that your view on the space PV is on HJT. Having mentioned about HJT, there are some market views that TOPCon might have some issues in relation to the Section 337 patent investigation. Is it one of the reasons that you are selecting the HJT technology in the U.S. because it is not the mainstream technology outside of the U.S.? Or is it really other reasons like labor or to start the production process?

Unknown Executive

Yes, we choose HJT heterojunction for the U.S. factory for several reasons, not 1 reason. So number 1, yes, our strong R&D effort already into HJT. As a matter of fact, we have studied the HJT structure as early as 2017 and 2018. We have been doing HJT development for 6, 7 years already. We have very strong knowledge. By the way, that also explains why our ramp-up of the Jeffersonville solar cell line was so far successful. I will say pretty smooth. Any ramp-up will have some issues. That's the point of the ramp-up, which is to discover the results and solve an issue. But our ramp-up in Jeffersonville was very successful. So that's the technical side.

And second, our HJT process is very neat. It's more equipment dependent than human dependent. It does require much less operators than TOPCon. And we think this is a very unique advantage for the U.S. manufacturing. And IP is also an issue, no question about it. On one hand, we are very confident that our TOPCon technology stands alone on its own feet and does not have any conflict with other companies' TOPCon IPs. However, less IP conflict is even better. So the HJT IP is much cleaner than TOPCon. That's also 1 reason for our decision to select HJT for the U.S. cell manufacturing. So there are quite a few factors. And all in all, we believe that HJT is a good technology. Also, as I mentioned, HJT is a leading candidate for the space application. We also considered those factors when we made this decision around 3 years ago.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Parkin for final comments.

Colin Parkin

Thank you for joining us today and for your continued support. If you have any questions or would like to set up a call, please contact our investor relations team. Take care, everybody, and have a great day. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.