에이비앗 네트워크스(AVNW) 2026 회계연도 4분기 실적 발표 회의: MDU 주도의 2027 회계연도 성장

아비아트 네트워크(Aviat Networks, NASDAQ: AVNW)가 분기 매출 증가와 연말 기준 역대 최대 수주잔고를 기록하며 2026 회계연도를 마감했다. 다만 부품 부족과 인플레이션이 매출총이익률에 부담으로 작용했다. 경영진은 공동주택(MDU) 기회, 사설망, 해외 수요 개선에 힘입어 2027 회계연도에는 성장세가 가속화될 것으로 전망했다.

핵심 요약

• 2026 회계연도 4분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 4.8% 증가한 1억 2,090만 달러를 기록했다. 연간 매출은 1.2% 늘어난 4억 3,970만 달러로, 아비아트는 6년 연속 매출 성장을 이어갔다.
• 연말 수주잔고는 2025 회계연도 대비 14% 증가한 3억 6,700만 달러에 달했다. 경영진은 최근 신규 수주와 공급망 확대 시점을 고려할 때 2027 회계연도 실적이 하반기에 집중될 것이라고 밝혔다.
• 아비아트는 2027 회계연도 매출 가이던스로 4억 5,500만~4억 7,000만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 가이던스로 5,000만~5,500만 달러를 제시했다.
• 동사는 기존 고객사로부터 2,500만~3,000만 달러 규모의 MDU 주문을 수주했으며, 2분기부터 본격적인 공급이 시작되어 관련 매출 전체가 2027 회계연도에 인식될 것으로 예상했다.
• 2026 회계연도 4분기 비GAAP 매출총이익률은 부품 부족과 가격 인플레이션 여파로 전년 동기 34.7%에서 30.9%로 하락했다. 경영진은 원가 상승을 상쇄하기 위해 고객 대상 가격 인상을 추진할 계획이다.
• 유럽·중동·아프리카(EMEA) 지역 매출은 방산 및 에너지 고객사 대상 사설망 수주 성공 등에 힘입어 해당 분기 53%, 2026 회계연도 전체로는 33% 증가했다.

주요 재무 성과

2026 회계연도 전체 매출은 4억 3,970만 달러로, 2025 회계연도의 4억 3,460만 달러 대비 증가했다. 조정 EBITDA는 총 3,670만 달러를 기록했다. GAAP 영업이익은 870만 달러 늘어난 1,920만 달러를 기록했으며, 비GAAP 영업이익은 5.2% 증가한 3,060만 달러를 기록했다.

연말 기준 현금 및 유가증권은 7,280만 달러, 부채는 9,700만 달러로 순부채는 2,420만 달러를 기록했다. 영업활동 현금흐름은 1,360만 달러였다. 아비아트는 또한 주당 평균 16.55달러에 약 13만 1,000주를 220만 달러에 자사주 매입했다.

사업 및 영업 성과

MDU 구축 사업은 2027 회계연도의 핵심 성장 동력이다. 아비아트는 참여 시장 수가 초기 1개, 7개, 약 11~13개 수준에서 현재 25개 시장에 진입하고 있다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 동사가 유일한 공급업체가 되지는 않겠지만, 고객사의 공급업체 순위가 상승해 선호 공급업체(preferred vendor)로 자리 잡았다고 보고 있다.

경영진은 연간 전체 MDU 시장 기회가 약 1억 달러에 달할 것으로 추정했다. 실제 실현되는 기회 규모는 티어 1 고객사의 가입자 성장률과 경쟁사 대비 아비아트의 점유율에 따라 달라진다. 추가 주문 가능성도 있지만 전망치에는 반영되지 않았다.

사설망 역시 또 다른 핵심 성장 분야다. 공공 안전 분야의 수요는 드론, 바디캠 등 고대역폭 애플리케이션에 의해 뒷받침되고 있다. 유틸리티 분야에서 아비아트는 마이크로웨이브 무선 장비, Aprisa SCADA 무선 장비, LTE/5G 라우터, 네트워크 관리 소프트웨어 및 품질 보증 제품을 통합 연결 포트폴리오로 구축하고 있다.

아비아트는 미국, 유럽, 라틴아메리카에서 초기 LTE 라우터 주문을 수주했다. 경영진은 시장 기회가 아직 상대적으로 작고 정부 조달 주기가 길지만, 고객 참여도는 매우 높은 수준이라고 전했다.

해외 시장에서는 EMEA가 견조한 성장을 거둔 반면 아시아태평양(APAC)은 안정세를 보였다. 경영진은 2027 회계연도에 전체 해외 사업이 성장세로 돌아설 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이전 분기에 지연되었던 중동 지역 매출 대부분은 4분기에 회복되었으며, 경영진은 해당 고객군의 수요와 공급이 안정적인 상태에 진입했다고 설명했다.

또한 아비아트는 저궤도(LEO) 위성 통신을 자사의 마이크로웨이브 및 셀룰러 라우터 포트폴리오를 보완하는 요소로 보고 있다. 고객사들이 위성 이중화 및 자동 이중화 전환(failover) 시험을 진행 중이지만, 경영진은 2027 회계연도 가이던스에 LEO 관련 매출이 포함되어 있지 않음을 확인했다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 1분기가 회계연도 중 가장 낮은 매출을 기록하는 시기가 될 것으로 예상한다. 2분기와 4분기가 정점이 될 것으로 보이며, 3분기 매출은 1분기를 상회할 것으로 전망된다. 또한 상반기보다 하반기 매출이 더 높을 것으로 예상되며, 경영진은 상반기 약 45%, 하반기 약 55%의 비중이 합리적일 수 있다고 언급했다.

MDU 매출 확대는 주로 2분기에 이뤄질 것으로 예상되나, 9월 종료 분기에도 일부 매출이 인식될 수 있다. 동사는 BEAD(브로드밴드 평등·포괄·배포 프로그램)가 12월 종료 분기부터 의미 있는 첫 매출 기여를 시작할 것으로 예상하지만, 가이던스에는 보수적으로 소액만 반영했다.

경영진은 매출 가이던스 상단 달성을 이끌 4가지 잠재 요인으로 MDU 가입자의 가파른 성장 및 점유율 확대, 더 빠른 BEAD 집행, 사설망 매출 증가, 티어 1 고객사 신규 수주 확대를 꼽았다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

부품 부족과 원가 인플레이션은 여전히 단기적인 수익성 압박의 주요 원인이다. 아비아트는 메모리, 인쇄회로기판(PCB), 커패시터, FPGA 확보에 집중하고 있다. 경영진은 가격 인상 조치와 공급 배분 전략을 통해 2분기부터 부담이 대폭 완화되기 시작할 것이라고 밝혔다.

경영진은 2분기부터 4분기까지 매출총이익률의 상승세를 예상하면서도, 하반기 30%대 중반의 이익률은 지향적인 목표(aspirational)라고 설명했다. MDU 사업은 중간 수준의 제품 이익률 프로필을 갖고 있어, 매출 증가에 따른 이익률 개선 효과는 제한적이다.

MDU 사업 기회는 고객사의 현장 준비 상태, 가입자 증가, 아비아트의 경쟁 점유율에 달려 있다. BEAD 사업 시점 역시 고객사 견적이 활발히 진행 중임에도 여전히 불확실하다. 이와 별개로 사업을 철수하는 경쟁사의 마이크로웨이브 네트워크를 전환하는 데는 6개월에서 18개월이 걸릴 수 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

• MDU 일정: 현장 준비 작업과 부품 발주는 9월 종료 분기 동안 진행될 예정이며, 이후 12월 종료 분기에 보다 본격적인 구축 확대가 이어질 것으로 예상된다.
• 경쟁사 철수 기회: 아비아트는 2025년 11월 한 유럽 경쟁사의 사업 철수 발표 이후 파이프라인을 구축했다. 경영진은 긴 네트워크 전환 과정을 거쳐 3월 및 6월 종료 분기에 전환 가능성이 더 높을 것으로 보고 있다.
• BEAD 프로그램: 이번 기회는 이론적 계획 단계에서 고객사의 활발한 견적 단계로 넘어갔다. 경영진은 이를 향후 3년간 매출을 견인할 동력으로 지속 평가하고 있다.
• 매출 비중: 아비아트의 전체 사업은 사설망 약 45%, 서비스 제공업체 또는 이동통신사 약 55%로 구성된다. 경영진은 미국 내 매출 비중이 사설망 쪽에 더 치우쳐 있다고 밝혔다.
• 재무제표 내부통제: 아비아트는 이전에 지적된 5가지 중요한 취약점이 모두 완벽히 시정되었다고 보고했다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Welcome to Aviat Networks' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call.[Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andrew Fredrickson, Vice President, Corporate Finance. You may begin.

Andrew Fredrickson

Thank you, and welcome to Aviat Networks' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Conference Call and Webcast. You can find our press release and updated investor presentation in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com, along with a replay of today's call. With me today are Pete Smith, Aviat's President and CEO, who will begin with opening remarks on the company's fiscal quarter, followed by Andy Schmidt, CFO, to review financial results for the quarter. Pete will then provide closing remarks on Aviat's strategy and outlook.

As a reminder, during today's call and webcast, management may make forward-looking statements regarding Aviat's business, including, but not limited to, statements relating to fiscal guidance, financial projections, business drivers, new products and expansions, the economic activity in different regions. These and other forward-looking statements reflect the company's opinions only as of the date of this call and webcast and involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements expressed or implied on this call can be found in our most recent filings with the SEC.

The company undertakes no obligation to revise or make public any revision of these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Additionally, during today's call and webcast, management will reference both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our press release, which is available in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com and financial tables therein, which include a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation and other supplemental financial information. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aviat's President and CEO, Pete Smith. Pete?

Peter Smith

Thanks, Andrew. Let's review the highlights from the fourth quarter. Quarterly revenues of $121 million, up 4.8% versus the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA of $11.9 million, non-GAAP EPS of $0.64, year-end backlog of $367 million, up 14% versus the end of fiscal year 2025. This marks a strong end to Aviat's fiscal 2026. Full year revenue was $440 million, up 1.2% versus the prior fiscal year. This represents our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth. Aviat is the only microwave company to achieve this growth during the last 6 years.

I would also like to note that this was the first time in over a decade that Aviat has had all 4 quarters in the fiscal year with at least $100 million in revenue. This is a tremendous achievement, and I would like to thank all of our customers, supplier partners and employees in making this possible. Since FY '23, we have been expanding outside of our core microwave business with a focus on mission-critical access. In FY '26, sales of non-microwave, i.e., mission-critical access products grew significantly versus FY '25 and is the result of Aviat's strategic decisions and execution in years prior, allowing us to diversify our business and gain access to larger, faster-growing segments. We are glad to see this strategy coming to fruition.

Now I'd like to talk more about recent developments in our end markets. In the U.S., strong quarterly sales and bookings set the stage for an exciting year ahead. We see several growth vectors aligning for Aviat. First, we believe our multi-dwelling unit MDU opportunity will deliver meaningful revenues to Aviat this year. We announced an order received from an existing customer in the range of $25 million to $30 million. We expect all of this revenue in fiscal 2027. The Aviat team continues to work to win additional markets and adjacent opportunities to increase our capture rate in fiscal 2027 and beyond.

Secondly, we see private networks continuing to be a core foundation for Aviat's growth. In state and local public safety networks, Aviat remains the leader and continues to pursue opportunities for more share of demand. According to industry research, city and state government budgets are expected to grow 6.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Video-intensive applications like drones and body cameras as well as other data-intensive tools drive increased bandwidth demand within private networks, which necessitates more or upgraded microwave links.

As highlighted in our last earnings call, utility private networks are poised for growth. Power infrastructure and grid connectivity are emerging as key bottlenecks to AI infrastructure deployment. This build-out requires secure, highly reliable communication networks to connect and manage grid assets. Aviat participates here, thanks to our portfolio of industry-leading solutions geared towards utilities. Our microwave radio portfolio of Aprisa SCADA radios and LTE 5G routers, combined with our network management software and our health assurance and frequency assurance offerings provides utilities a one-stop shop for its network connectivity build-out and management needs.

With the SpaceX IPO and the announcement of a potential fourth cellular network in the U.S., there is a significant amount of investor interest in low earth orbit or LEO networks. We believe that there is a valuable niche to fill in the communication space specifically around nomadic or very remote locations. Therefore, we see the technology as being complementary and not necessarily competitive with Aviat. We see the following for LEO and Aviat. One, Aviat's core business is largely unthreatened. Two, there is an idea of SpaceX building out a terrestrial network. While the architecture of that conceptual network is not fully formed, should this materialize, Aviat is well positioned if and when the architecture requires terrestrial backhaul. Three, most exciting is the new functionality that LEO brings. LEO offers redundant communications. This is most valued by private network customers, and we are seeing opportunities for Aviat through integration with microwave and cellular router solutions.

For microwave networks, satellite provides a low-cost, easy-to-deploy backup path for critical remote sites. For cellular routers and public safety and fleet applications, satellite fills LTE and 5G coverage gaps with automatic failover. In both cases, Aviat's opportunity is to deliver an integrated solution that improves resilience while simplifying deployment, management and operations for our customers. Aviat's customers are engaged in trials to demonstrate the value proposition of this redundancy. Please see Slide 11 in our investor presentation to get a picture of the ongoing trials and connectivity solution we bring.

Moving on to international. Aviat's business has seen particular traction in the EMEA region, where revenues were up 53% in the fourth quarter and up 33% for all of fiscal 2026. This growth has been driven in part by recent international private network wins, including with defense customers, including blackned as well as energy firms. As we pursue more such private network business, we see this segment as growing -- a growing portion of our international business in the future.

Moving on to supply chain. Like others in the technology hardware space, Aviat has not been immune from component shortages and cost inflation. Specifically, we are most focused on securing supply for memory, printed circuit boards or PCBs, capacitors and FPGAs. We will be opening the playbook we used during COVID supply chain crisis to secure favorable placement and allocations among our suppliers. Although Aviat has been able to manage through these current allocations and shortages with our inventory and safety stock, we have also had some headwinds to our gross margins from component cost inflation. We plan to pass along these price increases to our customers to help offset these rising costs. With that, I will now turn the call over to Andy to go through the financial results.

Andrew Schmidt

Thanks, Pete. I'll review some of the key fiscal year 2026 and fourth quarter results. Please note that our detailed financials can be found in our press release and all comparisons discussed are between fourth quarter of fiscal year '26 and fourth quarter of fiscal year '25, unless otherwise noted. For the fourth quarter, we reported total revenue of $120.9 million as compared to $115.3 million for the same period last year, an increase of 4.8%. Revenues for the 12-month period were $439.7 million versus $434.6 million the year ago 12-month period.

North America, which comprised 56.5% of our total revenues for the quarter were $68.3 million. This was up $10.3 million or 17.8% versus the year ago period. These results were complemented by a limited set of deployments for our North American-based MDU project in the quarter. International revenues, which made up 43.5% of total revenues were $52.6 million for the quarter. For fiscal 2026, North American revenues were $220 million, up 6% versus fiscal year '25. International revenues were $219.6 million in fiscal '26 compared to $227 million in fiscal '25. EMEA showed solid results for fiscal '26, while APAC stabilized. We feel our international business overall is poised for growth in fiscal '27.

Gross margins in the fourth quarter were 30.8% on a GAAP basis and 30.9% on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to 34.2% GAAP and 34.7% non-GAAP in the prior year. The year-over-year change in gross margin is typically due to volumes, regional and product mix. That said, as Pete noted earlier, our current period gross margin was negatively affected by component shortages and associated price inflation. For fiscal 2026, gross margins were 31.5% on a GAAP basis and 31.8% on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to 32.1% GAAP and 32.8% non-GAAP in fiscal '25. Fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses were $31.4 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses, which exclude the impact of restructuring charges, share-based compensation and other costs were $27.3 million.

For fiscal '26, GAAP operating expenses were $119.1 million and non-GAAP operating expenses were $109.2 million. This is versus $128.9 million GAAP and $113.5 million non-GAAP in fiscal '25, a decrease of $9.8 million and $4.3 million, respectively. This is the result of the entire management team diligently managing costs, continuously reviewing corporate needs and driving process efficiency efforts. Fourth quarter operating income was $5.8 million on a GAAP basis and $10 million on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to $8.9 million GAAP and $12.9 million non-GAAP in the year ago period. For fiscal '26, GAAP operating income was $19.2 million, up $8.7 million versus the last fiscal year. Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP operating income was $30.6 million, up $1.5 million or 5.2% versus the last fiscal year. The fourth quarter non-GAAP tax benefit was $0.5 million. As a reminder, as of fiscal 2026 year-end, the company has over $420 million of net operating losses or NOLs that will continue to generate shareholder value via minimal cash tax payments for the foreseeable future.

Fourth quarter GAAP net loss was $1.3 million and non-GAAP net income was a positive $8.3 million, which excludes restructuring charges, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation, interest and other income, other nonrecurring expenses and the noncash tax provision. Fourth quarter GAAP loss per share was $0.10 on a fully diluted basis and non-GAAP earnings per share came in at a positive $0.64 on a fully diluted basis. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $11.9 million or 9.8% of revenues. For the fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA was $36.7 million.

Moving on to the balance sheet. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the fourth quarter were $72.8 million. Our outstanding debt was $97 million, bringing the net debt position to $24.2 million. Aviat made continued improvements in its balance sheet. Unbilled receivables were lower for the third consecutive quarter. The fourth quarter balance was $3.1 million lower compared to the fiscal 2026 third quarter ending balance. This brings our total unbilled receivables balance to $82.1 million. Inventories were also lower sequentially by $3.6 million, bringing our inventory balance to $69 million.

For the full fiscal year, Aviat generated cash from operations of $13.6 million. Combined with the other balance sheet improvements, this is good progress for shareholders. Other points to make. Aviat used $2.2 million to repurchase approximately 131,000 shares in the quarter at an average price of $16.55 per share. Finally, we are pleased to share that in the context of our control environment, we have fully remediated our past 5 material weaknesses. Rest assured, Aviat's core value of continuous improvement is still in play, and we will continue to work to further strengthen our foundation. With that, I'll turn it back to Pete for some final comments.

Peter Smith

Thanks, Andy. Regarding our fiscal 2027 guidance, we are establishing our outlook as follows: full year revenues to be in the range of $455 million to $470 million; full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $50 million to $55 million. Note that our guidance is full fiscal year. Some additional color on seasonality. Based on our backlog and current outlook, the first quarter will be the foundation on which Aviat's revenue builds throughout fiscal 2027. Additionally, we expect the second half of the fiscal 2027 to have higher overall revenues versus the first half of fiscal 2027. See Slide 23 in the investor presentation for a view of the seasonality Aviat has typically experienced and for use in your models. With that, operator, let's open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question coming from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH Capital.

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Scott Searle

Nice job on the quarter. Also nice to see the balance sheet improvements and the cleanup of the material weaknesses. Maybe just to dive in, I wonder if you could give us an idea of the breakdown in North America between carrier contribution and private networks? And then specifically, looking into the September quarter and how we ramp up from an MDU contribution standpoint. Pete, how is that shaping up just in terms of the context of how we should think about the flow of that into the course of fiscal '27?

Peter Smith

So we ended the year with record backlog, up 14%. A lot of that was worked throughout the year that landed in the May, June time frame. There's this pervasive component availability. So when we said in the script that the Q1 is going to be a foundation, we think given the timing of our wins and given the supply chain ramp-up, we think if you put a revenue profile together, Q1 will be the lowest. Q2 and Q4 will be peaks and Q3 should be higher than Q1. And then with respect to the overall, I have -- I don't have the U.S. breakdown in front of me, but we're about 45% private networks, 55% service providers or mobile network operators. And I think that -- I'll give a qualitative statement. I would say the U.S. has more private networks than the overall Aviat. So I think that gives you a vector on that, Scott.

Scott Searle

Okay. Pete, just to clarify, though, on the MDU front, do you expect contribution in the September quarter? Or is there a lot of predeployment activity ongoing, more engineering and otherwise, and we should expect to ramp up into the second half of the year or second quarter?

Peter Smith

Yes. So we think the ramp-up is going to occur in the second quarter. There is a chance that we get some in the September quarter. And let me just give a little more color on this. We completed more proof of concepts in a variety of markets. And we believe that the customer has moved us ahead in the supplier pecking order where we think we're established as the preferred vendor. So what we really need to do is get that site readiness over the hump in the September quarter, get all of our components on order and enjoy the win in the December quarter.

Scott Searle

Great. And 2 other quick ones, if I could. Just on the satellite LEO opportunity. I'm wondering if you're actually starting to see interesting contribution today. It seems like there's a lot of activity, but I'm wondering what you're factoring into that fiscal '27 guidance at this point in time. And then second, gross margins, some component headwinds on that front. I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of fiscal '27, broadly speaking. Is there some expansion in gross margin opportunities given some incremental scale and product mix? Or are you still seeing some headwinds on the component front?

Andrew Schmidt

Sure, Scott. This is Andy. Great to hear from you. In terms of gross margins, as Pete commented on revenue, Q1 is going to be our building block and we go up from there. So we -- it is, let's call it, the foundation or lowest part of the year, it's going to be affected by lower volume, of course. Pete did talk to in his prepared remarks, strategies that we're deploying to offset the component inflation, if you will. Those are going to be more realized in Q2 and going forward, not in Q1. But again, we do have plans and we expect Q2, 3 and 4 to have more upward pressure on gross margin.

Peter Smith

And there's no LEO in the guide.

Operator

Our next question in queue coming from the line of Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

Christian Schwab

Congrats on the solid quarter. I'm wondering if you could give us an update on your large European competitor who is exiting their microwave business, we believe, by the end of this calendar year. Are you seeing any business benefit from that currently? And would you anticipate or see an increased dialogue that you think will benefit you in your next fiscal year?

Peter Smith

A competitor of our European competitor has communicated that their pipeline of opportunities is improving. And I would suggest that the same thing is transpiring with us. To convert a microwave network, it's a 6- to 18-month proposition. And the good news for us was the announcement was made November of 2025. And immediately after that, I think Aviat and all of our non-for-sale competitors created a pipeline and are pursuing that. And I would say we've had kind of normal course of business wins. And I would say that our competitors have probably had that as well where networks get exchanged at a low level. I think the possibility for this to improve is probably in the March and June quarters for Aviat as well as the the competitors that have been working over the -- what will be a period of 1 year, 1.5 years to convert the uncertainty to wins.

Christian Schwab

And then as it relates to BEAD, is there -- there's been a lot of fluctuations of people tied to that. And just wondering what's your current thoughts. I think before, we thought maybe some things would start in fiscal year '27, but really had more of a multiyear outlook. I'm just wondering if there's any update on your current thoughts there.

Peter Smith

Yes. In front of me, we've got quotes out to our customers. We're working to turn those quotes into business. So it's becoming tactical rather than theoretical. And I would also say that we still believe it to be a 3-year impact. And we -- our estimate is in the December quarter, it should have the first real impact to our revenue.

Christian Schwab

Okay. Fantastic. And then lastly, regarding your belief that you're the preferred vendor and showing proof of concepts of different applications on the MDU ramp. I appreciate the $25 million to $30 million significant order in hand. Should we anticipate that there could be more significant orders as we go through fiscal year '27? Or is that yet too early?

Peter Smith

I don't want you to anticipate, but there could be. How about that? Trying to split the middle there. But it's a fair question, and we're hopeful. Let's not put it in the model, but that's what we're working towards.

Operator

Our next question in queue coming from the line of Jaeson Schmidt with Lake Street.

Jaeson Schmidt

Just following up on Christian's last question on the MDU opportunity and potential for more orders. Can you help us size the potential follow-on orders? Or how are you looking at this opportunity sort of in the intermediate term here?

Peter Smith

Yes. So I think what's really critical to driving the size of the opportunity is subscriber growth, and we're in the early innings of the subscriber growth. And the more subscribers that come online for this Tier 1, the bigger the opportunity. I mean for the last time we talked, we sized this as an 8-figure opportunity, and we put that in our 8-K during our quiet period, we would say that, just that we think it's going to get bigger.

So then the next question is, does it cross the barrier for 9 figures? I don't know -- I think the total annual opportunity is in the $100 million neighborhood, how the -- and that's predicated on, one, the customer achieving their subscriber growth metrics. And two, our share versus the competitive share. So if you want to look at this as what could it be, what could it all be? I would say we hit the $100 million figure. The precursors to that are -- the market opportunity hits the $100 million level. How that parses out between Aviat and the competition, it's looking more favorable, but I don't see any situation where we'd be sole sourced. And then what's probably more important is how many subscribers come on to those MDU units.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, can you update us on the Aprisa router funnel and what you're seeing and expectations for fiscal '27?

Peter Smith

So we're not going to break out guidance specifically for Aprisa. The Aprisa business on the utility front, which is why we bought in, continue to enjoy it, is performing well. We've talked in the past about the LTE router and basically putting this router into public safety or police cars. What I can say is that we have initial orders in the U.S., Europe and Latin America. It's still relatively small, and there's a long lead site -- a long kind of runway to get government agencies into the purchasing funnel. But I would also say that our performance in the mobile cellular router sector is we're going up against Cradlepoint. And the reason we have those initial orders and significant engagements is because we have a compelling value proposition that customers like, and it's just going to take time, but we believe that it will happen.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from the line of Dave Kang with B. Riley.

Dave Kang

First question is, just wondering how much -- regarding that Middle East projects that were delayed last quarter, how much of that was captured in the fourth quarter?

Peter Smith

I think most of it, Dave, most of it was recaptured.

Dave Kang

Got it. And did that mix also played into that gross margin? I know you talked about supply chain headwind, but also the mix.

Andrew Schmidt

Primarily the component inflation has affected this quarter. Mix is pretty much representative. As I said in the prepared remarks, Americas were about 56.5%, which is fairly typical.

Peter Smith

Just to add to that, Dave, right? So the nature of the inflation in the component environment is sometimes there's spot market, sometimes it's prices go up even after you make the order. And in the next few weeks, we're going to go out to our customers for more price. So unfortunately, the nature of the inflation is it's a little more abrupt than typical. So we got impacted by that abruptness, and we're going to work to offset those -- that inflation. I think we should get some improvement in the December quarter and then the back half, it should be better still.

Dave Kang

So by second half, can we expect like mid-30s in terms of gross margin expectations?

Andrew Schmidt

That would be aspirational. A lot of the growth, again, is coming out of MDU as we've talked through in these other markets, and that has pretty much what we call more of a middle of our product strategy profile. So again, we ended the year at about 32%. That's a safe harbor in terms of how we operate, just looking at historical. Again, as we -- as Pete talked to these different strategies, we expect some upward pressure. So that's good. But I wouldn't necessarily go as high as what you're suggesting as we speak today.

Dave Kang

Got it. And my last question is regarding your fiscal '27 revenue outlook. Just wondering if any BEAD factored into that outlook?

Peter Smith

A small amount, relatively conservative. So BEAD kicks in, we will revisit the guidance.

Operator

Our next question coming from the line of Theodore O'Neill with Litchfield Hills Research.

Theodore O'Neill

Congratulations on the good quarter. I want to also follow up on the MDU opportunity. Can you tell us -- I'm sure you can't mention them by name, but can you tell us about the type of customers that are driving the MDU opportunity?

Peter Smith

Well, we've disclosed in a lot of industry folks -- we've disclosed that it's a U.S. Tier 1 that has access to 39 gigahertz spectrum. So that narrows it down and the field installers have leaked this, but it's not for us to disclose. So -- and their customers' customers are apartment dwellers that typically, the profile is they skew younger, lots of remote work from home that require bandwidth beyond what's economically delivered today.

Theodore O'Neill

Okay. And Pete, last quarter, you talked about war-induced pushouts of about $9 million. And you already said that part of that had come into Q4. Did that all make in? Or are you still experiencing some kind of war-induced issues out there?

Peter Smith

Actually, so the customer was not overdue. So -- but that was in the Middle East, war-induced issue. And we would say that there's steady state that, that problem has reversed. And I would say our demand in that customer base and our supply is at steady state.

Theodore O'Neill

Okay. And finally, on the range of revenue guidance, there's a range of $15 million. Can you talk about what -- sort of what would make it at the high end or the low end of that sort of the give and take in that?

Peter Smith

Yes. I'd like to talk about how to make it -- to get to the higher end, more MDU and how does that, one, is more subscriber growth; two, share gain versus the competition. Two is our de minimis modeling of BEAD. So if BEAD kicks in the way we've wished it would have kicked in over the last 5 years, then we will revisit guidance. And then three would be private networks.

And Christian asked a question about the competitive dynamics in private networks. We think we're well positioned if some of those convert or if private networks, the Aprisa LTE router opportunity is in there. If either of those 2 things happen, that will pop up our private network. And then lastly, we see some -- given the competitive dynamics globally, we have more Tier 1 interest than normal new Tier 1. So that would be the fourth potential lever to move us from, let's say, the midpoint to the high end. So we have 4 possibilities.

Operator

Our next question coming from the line of Rustam Kanga with Citizens Bank.

Rustam Kanga

Andy and Pete, nice close to the year. Regarding the historical revenue pattern at 48% to 52% for the back half of the year for your guidance for next year. Are you looking at something like more towards the range of 40%, 60%? Or could it be more pronounced than that?

Andrew Fredrickson

Russ, this is Andrew Fredrickson. Yes. So we mentioned that the second half of the year would be a little bit more back half weighted. I would think you could think about it incrementally more than maybe where it's been historically. So maybe it's something closer to 45%, 55% but we'll certainly continue to keep you updated as we advance through the year. But if you look at the investor Slide #23 in our investor presentation, we have historical numbers over the last couple of fiscal years. I would say at a minimum, that's a good kind of guidance level from a seasonality perspective. But again, maybe you have a couple more percentage points in the back half.

Peter Smith

Yes. Slide 23 is the model that we're signing up to.

Rustam Kanga

Sounds good. And then regarding the MDU opportunity, I understand that it's hinging on the subscriber growth there. Just curious if the number of markets that you're operating there has grown or sustained from what you've talked about in the previous quarter.

Peter Smith

Yes. I think we're slated or are in 25 markets. And if we roll back the clock, we were 1, 7, 11 to 13. So now I think we're approaching the 25 market level.

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions in the Q&A queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Pete Smith with any closing remarks.

Peter Smith

It's an exciting time for Aviat. Thanks, everyone, for joining. We look forward to again updating you in November. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.