플라워스 푸즈(FLO) 2026 회계연도 2분기 실적 발표 콜: 4분기 안정화 및 비용 절감

플라워스 푸드(Flowers Foods, NYSE: FLO)는 신선 포장 빵 수요가 계속 압박을 받으면서 2026 회계연도 2분기 실적이 경영진의 전망치에 미치지 못했다고 밝혔다. 회사는 3분기 매출이 전년 동기 대비 감소할 것으로 예상하며, 4분기에는 안정세가 확대될 것으로 전망하고 있다.

핵심 요약

• 2분기 신선 빵 판매량(단위 수량)은 9.5% 감소했으나, 고정비 레버리지 약화에도 불구하고 가격 정책이 매출총이익률 방어에 기여했다.
• 경영진은 신규 사업 수주가 본격화되고 전년도 가격 비교 부담이 완화됨에 따라 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 감소하겠지만, 4분기 실적은 안정화될 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 플라워스 푸드는 포트폴리오의 공백과 변화하는 소비자 선호도에 대응하기 위해 하프 로프(half loaf), 사워도우, 단백질 및 식이섬유 제품의 혁신을 가속화하고 있다.
• 회사는 지난 수년간 약 2억 달러의 비용을 절감했으며, 최근 진행된 구조조정 조치가 2027 회계연도에 진입하면서 약 2,000만 달러의 긍정적 효과를 제공할 것으로 기대하고 있다.
• 신규 사업 수주는 외식·급식(Away-from-Home) 부문과 브랜드 리테일 부문 모두에 걸쳐 있으며, 3분기에 일부 기여를 시작으로 4분기에는 본격적으로 확대될 것으로 예상된다.
• 경영진은 공식 종합 검토가 완료되었으며, 혁신, 자원 집중, 매장 내 실행 전반에 걸쳐 권고사항을 이행하기 시작했다고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 및 운영 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

신선 포장 빵 카테고리는 가계 예산 압박, 소비자 선호도 변화, 지속적인 경쟁 심화로 인해 여전히 어려운 환경에 직면해 있다. 경영진은 일부 소비자가 자체 브랜드(PB)나 더 저렴한 제품으로 갈아탔으나(trade-down), 플라워스 푸드의 상대적 실적 부진에는 포트폴리오 공백이 더 큰 요인으로 작용했다고 본다.

회사는 하프 로프, 사워도우, 단백질, 식이섬유 및 기타 기능성 제품군에서 침투율이 부족함을 확인했다. 해당 분야의 신제품은 2026 회계연도 하반기부터 2027년 봄 사이에 출시될 예정이다.

네이처스 오운(Nature’s Own) 브랜드는 실적 발표 수개월 전에 리뉴얼 출시되었다. 경영진은 고객 및 소셜 미디어 반응이 긍정적이지만, 이번 캠페인의 재무적 영향을 판단하기에는 아직 이르다고 밝혔다.

데이브스 킬러 브레드(Dave’s Killer Bread)의 경우, 경영진은 판매량 압박의 일부 요인으로 사워도우 시장 성장과 일부 가격 민감도를 꼽았다. DKB는 현재 미국 서부 지역에서만 사워도우 제품을 제공하고 있다. 마케팅 지원은 앞서 진행된 '록 유어 리셋(Rock Your Reset)' 캠페인과 예정된 신학기 시즌 집중에 이어 연남은 기간 동안 정상화될 예정이다.

플라워스 푸드는 가격 및 프로모션 전략도 지속적으로 검토하고 있다. 경영진은 가격 정책이 생산성, 가격-포장 구성(price-pack architecture), 제품 혁신과 함께 활용할 수 있는 여러 수단 중 하나일 뿐임을 강조했다.

경영진 전망

경영진은 3분기 전체 매출이 전년 동기 대비 감소할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 다만 신규 사업 수주가 본격화되고, 전년 대비 가격 탄력성 부담이 완화되며, 네이처스 오운 마케팅 투자가 성과를 내기 시작함에 따라 4분기에는 안정세가 더욱 두드러질 것으로 전망한다.

예상되는 실적 개선은 외식·급식 부문과 브랜드 리테일 부문 사이에 균형 있게 나타날 것으로 보인다. 일부 신규 사업은 3분기부터 기여하기 시작하여 4분기에 추가적인 효과를 낼 것으로 예상된다.

2026 회계연도 잔여 기간 동안 대부분의 원자재는 이미 완전히 헷지(위험회피)된 상태다. 남아있는 노출 부문은 식용유, 디젤, 그리고 주로 포장재에 영향을 미치는 간접 수지 비용 등이다. 경영진은 현재 전망치에 이러한 압박 요인이 이미 반영되어 있다고 설명했다.

2027 회계연도 계획 수립 절차는 여전히 진행 중이다. 경영진은 여러 투입 항목 전반에서 인플레이션 지수가 상승했으며, 단지 가격 인상에만 의존하기보다는 생산성 향상, 가격-포장 구성 조정, 제품 혁신을 통해 해당 압박에 대응할 계획이라고 밝혔다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 신선 포장 빵 수요의 지속적인 약세 및 가계 예산 압박.
• 지속되는 경쟁, 프로모션 경쟁 심화, 자체 브랜드(PB)나 저가 제품으로의 이탈(trade-down).
• 사워도우, 하프 로프, 기능성 빵 등 고성장 제품 형태에서의 포트폴리오 침투율 부족.
• 생산량 감소로 인한 베이커리 네트워크 전반의 고정비 흡수율 약화.
• 원자재, 연료, 수지 및 포장 관련 투입재의 2027 회계연도 잠재적 인플레이션 우려.
• 신제품 출시, 신규 사업 수주 확대, 네이처스 오운 브랜드 리뉴얼 실행 관련 리스크.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

애널리스트들은 플라워스 푸드가 하반기 전망에 반영된 전분기 대비 실적 개선을 달성할 수 있을지에 주목했다. 경영진은 주요 동인으로 신규 사업 수주, 추가 비용 절감, 제품 혁신 세 가지를 제시했다. 실적 개선은 3분기보다는 4분기에 무게가 쏠릴 것으로 예상된다.

마진과 관련해 최고재무책임자(CFO)는 신선 빵 판매량이 9.5% 감소했음에도 매출총이익률이 방어된 주요 원인은 가격 정책이었다고 밝혔다. 구조조정을 통한 비용 절감과 베이커리 생산성도 기여했으나, 경영진은 판매량이 감소함에 따라 추가적인 효율성 확보가 더욱 어려워진다는 점을 인정했다.

향후 인플레이션에 대한 질문에 경영진은 가격 인상 유연성이 2022년 원자재 주기 당시보다 낮을 수 있다고 답했다. 이에 따라 회사는 생산성 향상, 포트폴리오 변경, 가격-포장 구성의 다양한 조합에 의존할 계획이다. 네트워크 최적화는 여전히 검토 중이나 복잡하고 실행에 더 오랜 시간이 소요된다.

실적 발표 전화회의 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flowers Foods Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J. Rieck

Good morning. I hope everyone had the opportunity to review our earnings release, listen to our prepared remarks and view the slide presentation that were all posted earlier on our Investor Relations website. After today's Q&A session, we will also post an audio replay of this call. Please note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements about the company's performance.

Although we believe these statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to what you hear in these remarks, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. We also provide non-GAAP financial measures for which disclosure and reconciliations are provided in the earnings release and at the end of the slide presentation on our website. Joining me today are Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO; and Anthony Scaglione, our CFO.

Ryals, I'll turn it over to you.

A. McMullian

Okay. Good morning, everybody. As noted in our prepared remarks, our second quarter results did not meet our expectations. The fresh packaged bread category remained challenging, reflecting pressure on household budgets, shifting consumer preferences and sustained competitive activity. Against this backdrop, we're accelerating initiatives to better align our resources and value proposition with where the market is heading.

This includes advancing innovation in smaller formats, sourdough and protein, improving our in-store execution, pursuing new business and continuing to invest behind our leading brands. As the Nature's Own relaunch, new business wins and innovation initiatives build momentum, we expect them to support greater stability and improved performance. We have work to do, but we remain confident in our strategy, our brands and the actions that we are taking.

Shannon, we can go ahead and open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

질의응답

Stephen Robert Powers

Ryals, maybe we can pick up a bit where you left off in the intro. I mean if I think about the implied performance in your updated guidance for the back half, even at the low end, it seems to imply some acceleration and some improvement certainly versus the exit rate of consumption that we saw coming out of 2Q. So maybe a bit more detail on the building blocks that you see to create that sequential improvement because it doesn't sound like you're expecting the category to improve. It sounds like you're expecting your own standing versus the category to improve. So which of the initiatives are expected to be the most impactful? And I guess, a little bit of how quickly we should expect them to manifest over the remainder of the year?

A. McMullian

Okay. Thanks, Steve. A few things, and I'll let Anthony chime in here as well in terms of guidance. But I would call out 3 primary factors to address the question you asked. One is we do have some pretty significant new business wins that are coming on in the back half. In addition to that, we took additional cost savings measures that will benefit the back half. And that's in addition to the roughly $200 million we've taken out of the business over the last several years.

And I'd also call out innovation, which is a particularly important factor when you think about where the category is going, the speed of the shift in consumer preferences, frankly, got a little bit ahead of our innovation pipeline. But the good news is we have those things coming to fill those gaps in our offerings, whether you're thinking about protein, half loaves, sourdough, et cetera, all that's coming in the back half and then as we move into the spring of next year. Anthony, anything you want to add?

Diego Scaglione

No, I think you covered it. I would say, Steve, if you look at it for the back half, a little skewed. We expect some year-over-year declines in Q3, but then normalization for all the factors that Ryals mentioned related to the new business wins, reduced elasticities as we're lapping prior year pricing in Q4 and a bit of stabilization in Nature's Own from our marketing investments continue to take hold.

Stephen Robert Powers

Great. Maybe a little bit, if you could, a little bit more color. It sounds like you expect improvement both across the branded retail business and the other segment where I would expect those new business wins to exist. So maybe a little bit more color as to where you see -- which side of the business you see more improvement? And then, yes, I'd love a little bit more color on what you're seeing with the Nature's Own relaunch and kind of reasons for optimism with that.

Diego Scaglione

So Steve, I think from the way we're looking at it, it's really split between our Away-from-Home business as well as our retail branded business. So I would say we're seeing good opportunities and realization in both those areas, the timing of which some of it is going to come in Q3 and some of it will come in Q4. So it's balanced wins across the portfolio.

A. McMullian

And Steve, just to address your question on the Nature's Own relaunch. Recall, we just started this a couple of months ago. I would say it's going well. It's a little bit too early to see the actual results read through, but we're getting really good feedback from customers, social media, et cetera. So there's some early indicators that it will be a successful campaign. But I think we've got to give it -- as I said on the last call, we're going to have to give it a little bit more time for it to read through. That said, we do feel really good about the campaign and where we're headed with it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Marks with Jefferies.

Scott Marks

First thing I wanted to ask about, you noted in the prepared remarks, rising competition, rising promotional intensity. Obviously, you guys took some pricing earlier in the year with the expectation that you might see competitors follow, and it doesn't sound like that's happened quite yet. So just wondering if you can kind of give us an update on your thoughts around the pricing dynamics in the category and where you are? And any thoughts of changes to some of the actions you've taken to maintain maybe more competitiveness versus peers in traditional.

A. McMullian

Sure. I'll take a stab at that first. I think it's important to remember that the dynamics in the category are about a lot more than price. I think in certain segments of the portfolio that may be a factor. And as we noted in the prepared remarks, we're taking a pretty intensive review of our pricing and promotional strategy. However, it is more than just price. And I would point more to consumer preference shifts. Certainly, there has been some amount of trade down to private label and lower-priced items.

But I think the bigger factor, at least in our performance relative to the category has to do with those gaps in our portfolio, the underpenetration in half loaves, sourdough, protein fiber, some of these more functional attributes that consumers are looking for. And so that's where our primary focus is. That is not to say that we're ignoring the price equation. We are taking a hard look at that. And my initial thesis is there probably are some pockets of the portfolio where that's a factor, but I don't think it's the overall driving force of our performance.

Scott Marks

Appreciate the thoughts there. And then maybe there are some comments in the prepared remarks, I think, from Anthony about 2027 seeing some inflationary costs potentially ticking up, notably from commodity and fuel exposure. So just wondering if you can give us an update on where you're seeing inflation right now, how you're thinking about the exit rate in '26? And then maybe what you're assuming at this point for '27 as well as any other color you can share about '27 to help us frame your thinking.

Diego Scaglione

Sure. Sure, Scott. Let me take it in 2 parts. As we mentioned in Q1, most of our commodities for the balance of this year are fully hedged. We had some exposure, which I alluded to in oil and diesel and indirectly in resin, and that's primarily in our packaging area. So our current guide didn't change because we saw added pressure from a commodity perspective. We assume that pressure in Q1, and it hasn't really changed materially from where we were back in Q1. As I pivot to '27, we're still in the middle of our planning process for fiscal '27.

So I can't provide further color on that in isolation. To Ryals point, input costs are just one of many variables that we have to factor as it relates to price mix and the architecture and new innovation. So I can't look at it in isolation. That being said, overall inflation has gone up in many of our categories from a pricing index perspective is something that we need to definitely address as we look at '27 and the exit velocity, as you mentioned, coming out of '26. It's something we're working to address going forward. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, more to come. But at this point, that's all we could say as it relates to '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens.

James Salera

I wanted to follow up on your commentary to Steve and Scott's questions there. If I look back to 2022, that was, I think, the last time we had kind of a significant commodity cycle. And if my model serves me correct, net price/mix across the business was up kind of mid-teens in 2022, which was a big factor in helping to offset that. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like there's maybe not as much flexibility on a go-forward basis around pricing given some of the competitive dynamics. So could you just walk us through what other levers you might have in the business to help offset that commodity inflation that we're seeing and kind of anticipating to continue to roll through in 2027?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. Let me start on that, Jim. I would say, clearly, we have to look at productivity measures, which is part of our -- every annual process and throughout the year, we're looking at ways to be more efficient in the bakeries in the network, et cetera. We took action coming out of Q1 when we saw softness on the top line that will accrue from a tailwind perspective as we exit 2026 into 2027. And as we said on the prepared remarks, that's roughly around the $20 million tailwind we'll have going into 2027. The other area is going to be the price pack architecture.

As Ryals mentioned, coming together with new products around small loaves, bring to market innovation in sourdough, areas where the consumer has headed and where the consumer is, we're probably underpenetrated on a portfolio basis. We have great products coming to market in the near term, but we're probably underpenetrated today. So when we look at those factors gives us confidence that, yes, price probably is not going to be the only lever to overcome the inflation. And as I mentioned earlier, a lot more work to do around that as we continue the '27 planning process.

James Salera

My follow-up question is on DKB. In the prepared remarks, you guys touched on marketing pullback there. I would just love some more commentary around -- is that kind of a temporary reshift where maybe other brands need some more support? Are you guys reworking the marketing plan there? Did it shift kind of within the portfolio, maybe towards some of the innovation versus kind of the core fresh bread offering? Any thoughts there would be great.

A. McMullian

Yes, Jim, it's temporary. I mean it's the way we laid out the cadence of our marketing and promo spend this year. So we focused a lot at the beginning of the year with -- you may recall the Rock Your Reset campaign that we did with DKB. And then also, to your point, also a focus on back-to-school. And so we should see more normalized levels of promo and marketing spend with DKB for the balance of the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from the line of Mitchell Pinheiro with Sturdivant & Co.

Mitchell Pinheiro

I was looking at your fresh bread volume decline, which was 9.5%, and that's a big number. But I was surprised at how well the gross margin held up despite the unit volume decline in fresh bread. How can you -- how do you manage that?

Diego Scaglione

Mitch, this is Anthony. I mean, clearly, price had a big contributor in the price/mix. From a volume decline. So our pricing definitely was a positive contributor as it relates to overall. But as we look forward into the earlier comments, there's other variables that we are looking towards as we think about the balance of this year in '27 and price pack architecture, one that I mentioned earlier. But price was definitely the contributing factor to answer your question.

Mitchell Pinheiro

And so sort of negative fixed asset leverage, you've been able to manage that? Or how should we think about that?

Diego Scaglione

Yes. So from -- obviously, the restructuring had some cost out in COGS. We've had good productivity as it relates to the in bakery network. But clearly, that's our highest fixed cost. And while we're looking at network optimization, that is more complicated and takes much longer to execute. But we're clearly constantly looking at ways to be more efficient within the 4 walls of our bakery and our network, and that drove some benefit, but that becomes harder and harder with the volume declines. So as you can imagine, that's something that we're looking at and continue to look at as ways to optimize going forward.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then as you look at the third quarter, do you expect volume declines to moderate?

Diego Scaglione

Yes, we don't break that out. As I mentioned, we expect Q3 year-on-year to be down from an overall sales perspective. So that's going to be price and volume based and then Q4 to have a little bit more stabilization as the new wins get more fully ramped. That's probably the most color I can give you in terms of the near term.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then I guess 2 more questions. One with Dave's Killer Bread. You mentioned that consumer -- shifts in consumer preferences as a reason that helped pressure the unit volume decline. What are you referring to?

A. McMullian

Yes. Mitch, it's Ryals. Mostly, we think that it's the growth of sourdough. It's pretty remarkable actually. I mean that subsegment of the category has already grown to be a $1.3 billion subcategory. So it's been pretty tremendous growth. And in DKB, we only have sourdough on the West Coast currently. But as we mentioned earlier in the innovation pipeline, we have [indiscernible] for all that. I would say that is certainly one area and probably at least some amount of price sensitivity relative to Dave's. But I don't -- as I said earlier, I don't think it's all price. It's a combination of price for some consumers, but also offering and product attributes that are driving some of that decline.

Mitchell Pinheiro

Okay. And then just final question is just where do we stand with the comprehensive review? Where are we in that process? Are we close to the end? Is this a continuous improvement, comprehensive review? Can you shed a little light on that?

A. McMullian

Yes. Well, I think we're always in the mode of continuous improvement. But in terms of the formal initiative of the comprehensive review, yes, we're finished with that and beginning to execute on it. So a lot of the things we've talked about today, whether it's innovation or focus or better execution, all of those are folded in and are the result of that comprehensive review.

Operator

And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to hand the call back over to Ryals McMullian for closing remarks.

A. McMullian

Okay. Great. Thank you, Shannon. I just want to thank everybody for taking time today and joining us for questions. We very much appreciate your interest and support of our company. And as always, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.