엡실론 에너지(EPSN) 2026년 2분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜: 원유 성장과 파크맨 증산

핵심 요약

• 엡실론 에너지는 2026년 2분기가 연중 생산량의 저점이 될 것이라고 밝혔다. 경영진은 파우더리버 분지의 원유 생산량을 중심으로 연말까지 분기별 생산량이 전분기 대비 지속해서 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있다.
• 경영진의 2026년 전체 전망치 중간값에 따르면 전체 생산량은 전년 대비 10%대 후반의 성장률을 기록하고, 원유 생산량은 200% 가까이 증가할 것으로 추정된다.
• 7월에 가동을 시작한 나이오브라라 유정 2곳은 각각 일일 최대 생산량 900배럴 이상을 기록하며 회사 예상치를 상회하는 실적을 내고 있다.
• 3개 유정 대상의 파크먼 시굴 프로그램 시공은 예정보다 약 한 달 일찍 완료되었다. 완공 작업은 3분기 중 계획되어 있으며, 첫 생산은 2026년 4분기에 시작될 예정이다.
• 엡실론은 2026년 상반기 동안 부채를 1,000만 달러 감축했다. 회사는 EBITDA 대비 1.5배의 부채 비율 목표를 유지하면서 늘어난 투자 자금을 일부 충당하기 위해 회전한도대출(리볼버)을 활용할 계획이다.
• 경영진은 실적 발표 수정 사항이 요약표 내 조정 순이익 및 조정 EPS 표기에만 영향을 미쳤을 뿐, GAAP 실적, 현금 흐름 또는 사업 실질에는 아무런 영향이 없다고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 및 영업 데이터

사업 및 영업 성과

파우더리버 분지

파우더리버 분지는 엡실론의 단기 성장에 가장 크게 기여할 것으로 예상된다. 회사는 픽(Peak)으로부터 인수한 2마일 길이의 나이오브라라 수평정 2곳을 완성하여 계획된 100개 단계를 모두 시공하고 수압파쇄용 모래 물량을 투입했다. 두 유정 모두 7월에 가동을 시작했으며 각각 일일 900배럴 이상의 최고 생산량을 기록했다.

또한 엡실론은 시굴 장비(시추기) 확보에 성공한 후 3개 유정 대상의 파크먼 프로그램 시굴을 앞당겼다. 3개 유정 모두 목표 깊이에 도달했으며, 3분기 후반에 완공 작업이 예정되어 있고 첫 생산은 4분기에 시작될 전망이다. 회사는 90%대 중반이었던 지분을 매각한 후에도 70% 이상의 작업 지분을 유지했다.

컨버스 카운티에서는 100만 배럴 규모의 용수 공급 및 저류 시설 건설이 3분기에 시작될 예정이다. 변경된 설계는 향후 수반수(생산수)의 취수 및 재활용을 지원하여 용수 조달 및 처리 비용을 줄여줄 것으로 경영진은 기대하고 있다.

퍼미안 분지

엡실론의 첫 3마일 길이 바넷 유정이 6월에 플로우백(유출수 회수) 단계에 진입했다. 경영진은 실적이 시굴 전 감퇴곡선(type curve) 예상치에 부합하고 있으며, 운영팀은 초기 정규화 플로우백 수치가 기대치를 초과했다고 보고했다.

해당 유정은 해당 광구에서 굴착된 아홉 번째 유정이다. 운영사는 인접 바넷 유정 2곳의 시굴을 제안했으며, 2026년 하반기에 시굴을 시작해 2027년 1분기에 완공할 예정이다.

엡실론이 참여하지 않은 우드퍼드 평가정이 굴착되었으며 8월 후반에 완공될 예정이다. 경영진은 성공적인 결과가 나올 경우 해당 광구의 시굴 후보지(인벤토리)가 바넷 층을 넘어 확장될 수 있다고 설명했다.

마셀러스

펜실베이니아 생산량은 계획된 감산 및 수집 시스템의 압력 조정으로 인해 영향을 받았다. 경영진은 이러한 전략이 분지 내 실질 넷백 가격이 2달러 미만으로 떨어지는 기간 동안 판매를 제한하고 수요가 더 강한 시기를 위해 생산량을 보존하기 위함이었다고 밝혔다.

순 유정 0.4개에 해당하는 5개 유정의 시굴이 완료되었으며, 2026년 하반기에 완공 작업이 계획되어 있다. 첫 생산은 12월로 예정되어 있으며 경영진은 순기준 하루 650만 입방피트가 추가될 것으로 전망한다. 4개 유정은 오번 수집 시스템의 초기 처리량을 하루 약 8,000만~9,000만 입방피트 증가시킬 것으로 예상된다.

경영진 가이던스

엡실론은 처음으로 2026년 하반기 생산량 가이던스를 제시했다. 경영진은 파크먼 유정의 생산 기여가 시작되는 4분기에 가장 큰 폭의 증가가 나타나며 남은 기간 동안 의미 있는 전분기 대비 성장을 기록할 것으로 전망하고 있다.

3분기 자본 지출은 파크먼 개발, 퍼미안 시굴, 컨버스 카운티 시설 건설 및 2027년 초 활동 확대 준비 등으로 인해 상당폭 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 회사는 회전한도대출을 통해 이 투자 자금을 일부 충당할 계획이다.

2027년의 경우 경영진은 파우더리버, 퍼미안, 마셀러스 지역 전반에서 2026년보다 더 높은 수준의 개발 활동을 계획하고 있다. 2027년 연간 가이던스는 회사가 2026년 연말 실적을 발표하기 전인 2027년 1분기에 발표하는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

• 2026년 자본 지출의 상당 부분이 4분기 또는 2027년까지 생산에 기여하지 않으므로 프로젝트 일정에 대한 민감도가 높아지고 있다.
• 마셀러스 생산량은 감산, 수집 시스템 압력 조정, 자연 감퇴 및 해당 지역의 약한 가스 가격에 계속 노출되어 있다.
• 새로운 마셀러스 생산량의 가동 시기는 협력 운영사에 달려 있다. 경영진은 가이던스에 잠재적 지연에 대한 오차 범위를 반영했다고 밝혔다.
• 투자 확대 기간 동안 엡실론은 회전한도대출을 차입할 것으로 예상하지만, 경영진은 EBITDA 대비 1.5배의 레버리지 목표를 준수하겠다는 입장을 유지하고 있다.
• 향후 퍼미안 및 마셀러스 지역의 성장은 제3자 운영사의 최종 계획에 따라 달라질 수 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 매년 초 연간 생산량 가이던스를 제공하고 분기별로 이를 수정 보완할 계획이다. 2027년 연간 가이던스는 2027년 1분기에 제시될 예정이다.

헤징과 관련하여 엡실론은 향후 18개월 동안 확인 개발 생산량의 약 50% 수준으로 헤지 비중을 유지할 방침이다. 회사는 현재 해당 목표를 초과하는 가스 가격 보호 계획은 없으며, 마셀러스의 추가 생산량이 더 확실해짐에 따라 헤지를 추가할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

경영진은 작업 지분 매각을 고정된 전략이라기보다는 자본 관리 도구라고 설명했다. 엡실론은 성장 프로젝트에 대한 노출을 유지하면서 개발 지출을 목표 레버리지 범위 내로 관리하기 위해 향후 지분 매각을 활용할 수 있다.

회사는 또한 파우더리버 분지의 대형 운영사들과 광구 교환, 더 긴 수평정 굴착, 파트너십 등에 대해 논의 중이다. 경영진은 다음 분기 내에 보다 구체적인 업데이트를 제공할 것으로 예상되나 특정 계약 내용은 공개하지 않았다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you. Good day and welcome to the Epsilon Energy Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your President and CEO, Jason Stabell. Please go ahead.

Jason Stabell

Good morning. Before we begin our prepared remarks, we would like to address the press release correction issued yesterday. The correction was limited to the presentation of adjusted net income and adjusted EPS in the summary table. The reconciliation later in the release reflected the correct treatment. After identifying the inconsistency, we promptly updated the release. There was no impact to our reported GAAP results, cash flows, or the underlying economics of the business. Thank you, Operator.

I'll now turn the call over to Andrew Williamson, our CFO.

J. Williamson

Thank you, Operator. And on behalf of the management team, I would like to welcome all of you to today's conference call to review Epsilon's Second Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Results. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our comments may include forward-looking statements. It should be noted that a variety of factors could cause Epsilon's actual results to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements.

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings release that we issued yesterday for disclosures on forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jason Stabell, our Chief Executive Officer.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Andrew Williamson, our CFO, and Henry Clanton, our COO. We will be available for questions following our prepared remarks. Our message this quarter remains consistent with what we communicated in May. We are focused on execution, and I am pleased to report that our major operational initiatives have progressed on schedule and on budget. We have started to execute our development plan as expected and anticipate meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, primarily driven by crude volumes in the Powder River Basin.

As a result of the progress we have made across the portfolio, for the first time, we are providing production guidance for the second half of 2026. The anticipated increase in volumes reflects the commencement of production from several high-return oil projects that have either recently been brought online or are expected to begin contributing over the coming months. We refer you to a presentation posted to our website this morning for additional details on our guidance.

In the Powder River Basin, execution on our acquired operated assets has been particularly strong. Our 2 Niobrara DUC completions were completed during the quarter and brought online in July. Early production results have exceeded our type curve expectations. In addition, drilling operations on our 3-well Parkman pad were completed approximately 1 month ahead of plan. These high working interest Parkman wells are now on track to begin production during the fourth quarter and represent the biggest contributor to our anticipated growth profile.

In the Permian Basin, our first 3-mile Barnett well was placed on flowback during June and is currently performing in line with our pre-drill type curve. The successful execution of this well marks another important milestone in the development of the project and provides further confidence in the operator's transition to longer lateral development. Looking ahead, the operator has informed us that 2 additional Barnett wells are expected to be drilled during the second half of 2026, with completion scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.

In addition, the Woodford appraisal well, in which Epsilon elected not to participate, has now been drilled and is scheduled for completion later this month. A successful result could meaningfully expand the future drilling inventory associated with our acreage position and provide additional development opportunities beyond the Barnett formation. In Pennsylvania, production from our Marcellus assets was impacted during the quarter by planned temporary curtailments associated with operating pressure adjustments on our gathering system, will make room on the system for newly drilled wells scheduled to turn in line late in the fourth quarter of this year.

From an organizational standpoint, we have largely completed the transition period associated with the Peak acquisition. The integration of personnel, systems, and field operations has progressed well, and I want to thank our employees for their efforts throughout this process. The successful integration of the acquired assets has allowed our team to remain focused on execution while continuing to identify opportunities to improve operational performance and efficiencies.

Overall, we are accomplishing what we set out to do at the start of the year. Our development program is advancing as planned, our balance sheet remains strong, and we expect to deliver meaningful quarter-over-quarter production growth through the remainder of 2026, as reflected in the guidance provided today. Andrew and Henry will provide additional detail on our major operational initiatives, production outlook, and financial position.

Andrew, I'll turn it over to you.

J. Williamson

Thanks, Jason. On the recent results, the second quarter was a trough for us this year on production, as new development in the Powder River Basin and Permian started to contribute late in the quarter. As Jason mentioned, we anticipate growth from here as Q2 activity is reflected in Q3, and escalates through year-end and into 2027 with continued activity across the portfolio. The biggest impact this year will come in the fourth quarter with our first Parkman volumes in the Powder River Basin. The midpoint of full-year 2026 guidance shows high teens year-over-year growth in total production and almost 200% year-over-year growth in oil volumes.

On the capital side, also as shown in our guidance figures, we plan to spend meaningfully more in the third quarter than we have in past quarters, with the high-interest Parkman development already mentioned, together with drilling activity in the Permian, and facilities build-out in one of our core areas in Converse County, Wyoming, and preparation for a ramp and development activity there early next year. Well over half of our full year capital spending will not contribute to results until the fourth quarter, with over a third showing up in results starting next year, including the facilities build-out I mentioned.

We made several moves during the second quarter in preparation for these investments, including the non-core Marcellus overriding royalty interest sale and an interest sell-down in this quarter's Parkman development, which still leaves us with over 70% interest in the project. The previously disclosed potential sale of our Durango office building did not close, but we expect to reevaluate a potential sale later this year. Over the first half of the year, we paid down our debt balance by $10 million. We expect to utilize the revolver to partially fund the investment ramp starting this quarter. That said, we're very comfortable we can execute our plans while staying within our target leverage level of 1.5x EBITDA.

Looking ahead to next year, we're planning to continue to invest for growth, with development activity in excess of 2026 expected across all 3 of our primary areas. The biggest component will be the Powder River Basin, with additional operated development targeting the Parkman. We are also in discussions with some of the larger operators in the basin to pull forward some of our shale inventory there in partnerships, allowing us to develop cost-efficiently. The Permian and Marcellus assets are expected to exhibit growth next year as well, subject to the final plans of our operating partners.

Now to Henry.

Henry Clanton

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to everyone. Today I'd like to begin by highlighting some recent operations on our Powder River Basin assets. The company has successfully stimulated both of the 2-mile Niobrara laterals in Campbell County, Wyoming, we acquired from Peak. The frac went as planned with all design sand placed and the 100 stages completed. The wells were flowed back under a managed pressure procedure to technically guide the choke management decisions. Both wells continue to flow up casing on a reduced choke and are performing above expectation, with peak daily rates achieved in excess of 900 barrels of oil a day from each well.

Different from the timing provided in the prior earnings call, we were able to accelerate the drilling of our 3-well Parkman program in July. This being our first drilling operation in the basin, I'm pleased to report that all 3 wells were successfully drilled to their planned depths. The completions are scheduled for later this quarter. As we've done with the Niobrara wells, all production facility work that could be built out prior to placing the wells on production has been completed. Initial production is expected in the fourth quarter.

In Converse County, the 1 million barrel [ lined ] water supply and impoundment facility has finalized with contractor bids under evaluation. Construction is expected to begin in Q3. The original design of the impoundment ponds have been modified to allow for intake and recycling of produced water in the future, which will reduce the total water sourcing and processing costs moving forward. In follow-up to the production enhancement initiatives, the ops team has replaced 16 compression units to date, removing $65,000 a month of operating expenses moving forward. There are several more units to be downsized before the year end when total savings will exceed $100,000 a month. As expected, there have been no decreases to existing production as a result of the compressor downsizing program.

Lots going on in our Permian Basin Barnett project in Ector County. Drill out of the recent 3-mile Barnett lateral went as expected and the well has been placed on production. This is the 9th well drilled on the acreage and the early flowback period has exceeded the normalized type curve expectations and is exhibiting excellent productivity consistent with the existing wells on the acreage. This week we have received well proposals from the operator for 2 offsets to this lateral. These wells have been moved up in the drilling schedule by the operator with plans to spud them later this month.

Finally, the Woodford appraisal test mentioned on the last earnings call has been drilled with completion scheduled for later this month as well. In the Marcellus, as reported last quarter, the operators completed the drilling of a scheduled 5 wells, 0.4 net. Completion operations are planned for the second half of this year. First production from this development is scheduled in December and forecasted to add 6.5 million cubic foot a day net. 4 of the new drills will gather through the Auburn system and are forecasted to increase throughput in the midstream system by approximately 80 to 90 million cubic foot a day upon initial completion.

Now I'll turn it back to Jason.

Jason Stabell

Thanks, guys. Operator, we can now open the lines for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today will come from Anthony Perala with Punch & Associates. Please go ahead.

질의응답

Anthony Perala

Nice to see the first guidance you've been able to give for production for this year speaks to the shifting the business from non-op to now having the operating piece. What's the best way to think about the approach to guidance going forward into 2027 and beyond?

J. Williamson

Yes, thanks, Anthony. I think the next piece that we'll come out with will be full year '27. And we'll do that, targeting to do that in the first quarter of next year before we post year-end '26 results.

Anthony Perala

Okay, sounds good. So targeting it to be annually, kind of at the beginning of every year.

J. Williamson

That's right, and refined throughout the year with quarters.

Anthony Perala

Okay. A couple questions on the gas business in Pennsylvania. Any more details you could give on the maintenance activities there would be helpful. And then, I'm not sure if you have it available, but, kind of, how you delineate the falloff in production quarter-over-quarter? How much was attributable to the maintenance activities and how much was just your typical decline rates that we would have seen otherwise?

Jason Stabell

Yes, thanks for that question. This is Jason. If you look at our business in Appalachia, our operator has done a really good job in our view, and we've been in agreement with the approach that in the shoulder seasons or periods where we have prolonged pricing netbacks in Appalachia that are sub-$2, we've had curtailments. And the flip side of that, you'll notice in the first quarter we had a monster gas production cash flow quarter because we worked at the opposite, maximize production when we had realized prices of almost $5.50 versus the $1.80 in the second quarter.

So we, kind of, look at it on an annual basis over time. We're trying to maximize production with the operator in high demand, in-basin seasons, and then curtailing as appropriate when we think we're selling gas at depressed prices that are not sustained. As far as delineating, because the way that these volumes were curtailed was a increase in the operating pressure of our gathering line, it's hard to attribute an exact breakdown between what's natural depletion versus what's attributable to that pressure build back on the wells. The farther we are from where that pressure is applied, the more of an impact there is.

Roughly, we think we've been in depletion mode in PA since the wells were brought online last year in the first quarter and will be in depletion mode until the fourth quarter of this year when we start to see those incremental volumes that we addressed earlier in the report today.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's helpful. And any updates from the operator? It stayed consistent on bringing those wells on in Q4. I guess I'd pair the other piece of the question is, I've seen a lot about just the, kind, of super El Niño and what that does for winter weather and it's biased warmer based on prior analog years when you've seen that type of weather pattern. Any thoughts around the operator potentially pushing the tails out of Q4? And any thoughts on maybe looking to add more hedges given, kind of, forecast for a warmer winter here?

Jason Stabell

I'll let Andrew address the hedging question. We think we've built appropriate, in our guidance, we've, kind of, built appropriate margin of error to adjust for any slide that the operator has on those volumes. And on the hedging?

J. Williamson

Yes, Anthony, we target -- in terms of volume coverage, as I've mentioned in previous calls, we target 50% PDP hedged over the next 18 months. It also coincides with the hedge covenant on our credit facility. So what we've done on gas is use collars to put that production on.

With oil, as I've mentioned before, we took a big hedge book from Peak in the deal in the fourth quarter of last year. The majority of the incremental volumes we have on between now and the end of the year and into '27 as well, or a big chunk of them are our oil volumes, and so we've strategically started to add there starting in the fourth quarter of this year on crude. On the gas, I think we'll just continue to keep coverage as we've had it at that 50% of PDP. So we'll add again once we have some certainty on those incremental volumes coming on that we just talked about in the Marcellus late this year. So to answer your question directly, no plans to put protection on in excess of, kind of, the mandate that we have on 50% coverage.

Anthony Perala

Okay, that's great. That's very helpful color. Then shifting over to the Powder. Nice realization on the working interest sell-down. Just curious on what the market's like for that when you were marketing it and if you could give, kind of, a peek maybe into 2027 what those 6 wells, what your, kind of, net interest is right now and if you may look to tap that market again?

Jason Stabell

As a non-op player, we've been very aware of the AFE wellbore market. It's pretty active across, particularly in the Permian, but there is activity as well in the Rockies, in the Marcellus. So when we -- on that Parkman sell-down, I mean, there were a couple of drivers on that. And Andrew can add some additional color. One, we felt like if we could get a nice premium to our AFE, it really juices our cash-on-cash returns. And as Henry mentioned, these were our first 3 wells in the basin, we -- drilling operation wise, so really we felt okay taking our working interest down from a mid-90s into the low 70s here as a risk mitigant as well. Going forward, we have high working interest Parkman wells. We may consider sell-downs, but I think we feel pretty good about the well design and the performance. So I feel good on that.

J. Williamson

Yes. I'd add to that. Anthony, it's a tool to use to rightsize the capital program. So all of the things that we're planning on doing in the medium term, Powder, Parkman, Barnett development in the Permian, and then continued activity in the Marcellus, those are highly coveted in that market and so we know we can go there to rightsize that capital program and that's to stay within our leverage target that we discussed and still drive growth with that rightsized program, if that makes sense. So it's just a tool that we use. So no definitive plans there to sell down next year to answer your question directly, but it's a pretty quick cycle action if we want to go that route.

Anthony Perala

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. That's great. And then it seems like things were brought forward about a month, I think initially it was December for first production. Now you're assuming, kind of, 60 days that fall into 2026. Was it more a timing thing? Was it efficiency on the drill side? Just any details on that would be helpful.

Jason Stabell

Yes, I may flip this one to Henry. Henry, you want to take that one?

Henry Clanton

Yes, so related to the 3-well Parkman program in Wyoming, we had an opportunity to capture some rig availability. We had all of our permits in place. We had locations built, got our personnel ready, and so we acted upon it.

Anthony Perala

That's great. What is -- what's the market like for availability right now and looking into 2027? Yes, just that.

Henry Clanton

Yes, so in Wyoming, sorry, this is Tim. In Wyoming, yes, from a rig perspective, the rig count in the 2 counties that we're active in, Campbell and Converse, remain in about the 13 rigs running range. 9 of those are focused on the shales, Niobrara and Mowry, the other 4 are the sandstones. And so we're seeing stable activity in our area of the Powder River at this point.

Anthony Perala

And then the last one, I think, Henry, you had mentioned in your prepared remarks, just that you are having active conversations with other operators to maybe pull forward some development in a cost-effective nature, I think is the phrase that you used. Any more detail around that would be helpful just to frame up what that program could look like over the next couple of years.

Jason Stabell

Yes, Anthony, I'll take that one. This is Jason. We intimated on the call last time that we have a large acreage position in the Powder. There are opportunities for swaps and trades and partnerships. So we've had a number of inbounds about that. We're -- I'd say we're farther along in a couple of those discussions, but at this point, not in a position to really provide details, but I'd expect over the next quarter we're going to have something more definitive to provide to you guys.

But essentially this would be areas where we can either swap acreage to extend lateral lengths and/or participate alongside scaled operators and some of the other resource plays in the basin where they have existing infrastructure that's going to allow us to participate at a enhanced cost structure. So more to come on that, but I think that's been -- that's kind of gravy from what our base evaluation was on this Powder asset, because as you know, we've stressed our focus is going to be on the Parkman. But there are some nice opportunities that are also going to be available to us in the shale, the Niobrara in particular, going forward.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Showing no further questions. This will conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Jason Stabell for any closing remarks.

Jason Stabell

Thank you, Operator. I want to thank everyone for joining us today, and as always, if you have additional questions or comments, please reach out to us. I appreciate your support. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.