スペースX (SPCX) 2026年第3四半期決算説明会：SIの成長により売上高は146億ドルに拡大

主要ポイント

• 2026年第3四半期の売上高は前年同期比161%増の146億ドルとなり、純利益は前年同期の11億ドルの純損失から44億ドルに達しました。
• 調整後EBITDAは、スターリンクの継続的な定額収入（リカーリング収入）と、スーパー・インテリジェンス（SI）インフラ事業の急成長に牽引され、306%増の88億ドルに達しました。
• SI部門の売上高は76億ドルに達し、そのうちSIソリューションおよびインフラ事業が70億ドルを占めました。同セグメントの調整後EBITDAは50億ドルとなりました。
• スターリンクは当四半期に160万人の新規加入者を獲得し、一般消費者向け加入者数は1,360万人に達しました。コネクティビティ売上高は前年同期比69%増の52億ドルとなりました。
• スペースXは、2027年第1四半期の売上高を330億〜370億ドルと予想しており、12月の売上高を年換算した年間経常収益（ARR）は2026年末までに1,000億ドルに達する見通しを維持しています。
• 設備投資は加速しています。第3四半期の設備投資額は計196億ドルとなり、経営陣はSIの計算能力拡大に伴い、第4四半期の設備投資額を350億〜400億ドルと見込んでいます。

主要財務実績

SIの営業利益は4億3,100万ドルでした。経営陣によると、Cursorの買収に関連する12億ドルの株式報酬費用を除くと、同セグメントは16億ドルの営業利益を創出しました。

事業および業績の動向

スーパー・インテリジェンスが最大の成長ドライバーに

SIソリューションおよびインフラの売上高は計70億ドルに達し、これには四半期半ばに買収したCursorからの6億800万ドルが含まれます。Cursorの影響を除くと、新しいクラウドサービス契約が開始されたことが主な要因となり、同カテゴリーの売上高は前四半期比で192%増加しました。

スペースXの第3四半期末時点の定格計算能力は1.7ギガワットでした。経営陣によると、10月末までに約2.2ギガワット、年末までに2.5〜3ギガワットに達する軌道に乗っています。

同社によると、現在の価格設定において、新たな計算基盤の導入に伴う投資回収期間は1年未満となっています。計算能力の価格設定は、以前議論された1ワット当たり30〜50ドルの範囲をやや上回りました。イーロン・マスク氏は、社内用とサードパーティ向けの計算能力の割り当ては動的に維持され、それぞれの用途で約50%を目標とすると述べました。

Grok botの有料週間ユーザー数は10月初旬に80万人に達し、前月の2倍以上に拡大しました。経営陣は法人顧客を最も急速に成長しているカテゴリーと位置付け、Grok botがより広範な企業導入フェーズに入りつつあると述べました。

スターリンクが加入者数、航空向けおよびモバイルのリーチを拡大

スターリンクの一般消費者向け加入者数は1,360万人に達し、第3四半期中に160万人増加しました。月間消費者ARPU（1ユーザー当たり平均売上高）は前四半期比5%増の69ドルとなりました。

コネクティビティの売上総利益率は55%となり、これには主に関税の払い戻しによる約3ポイントの一時的利益が含まれています。一時的要因を除くと、調整後EBITDA利益率は前年同期比で約2ポイント拡大しました。

法人および政府向け売上高は前年同期比91%増、前四半期比18%増となりました。成長は米国政府向けのスターシールド案件や航空需要が牽引しました。

スターリンクは、経営陣が言及した対象可能航空機の約4分の1に相当する約12,000機と契約を締結しました。同社は航空向け生産能力を2026年初頭から4倍に拡大し、年末までにさらに倍増させる予定です。

Starlink Mobileの月間ユーザー数は前四半期比37%増の2,200万人以上に達しました。スペースXは15,000基のMobile V2衛星を打ち上げるFCC（米連邦通信委員会）の承認を取得しており、取得した低周波数帯スペクトラムを統合した上で、2028年初頭に拡張サービスの運用を開始する予定です。

スターシップが完全再利用に向けて進展

スペースXは第3四半期中に、スターリンク用ファルコン9の打ち上げ21回、スターシップの打ち上げ2回、ファルコンヘビーのミッション1回、顧客向けミッション12回を含む計35回の打ち上げを完了しました。

スターシップ飛行試験14回目は軌道に達し、運用用スターリンクV3衛星を投入しました。経営陣は飛行試験15回目でブースターと宇宙船の両方の回収を試みる見込みです。同社は2027年前半に毎週のスターシップ打ち上げを目指し、後半には週2回の打ち上げを行う可能性があります。

経営陣によると、V3衛星を搭載したスターシップの打ち上げは、最終的に現世代のファルコン9打ち上げの20倍以上のダウンリンク容量を提供する可能性があります。需要の高い市場のユーザーが継続的な品質向上を体感するには数百基のV3衛星が必要になる見込みで、同社は2027年中旬までにその水準に達すると予測しています。

経営陣の見通し（ガイダンス）

• 2027年第1四半期売上高： 330億〜370億ドル。
• 2026年末ARR： 12月売上高の年換算として定義され、スペースXは1,000億ドルの達成に向けて順調に進んでいます。
• 2026年第4四半期設備投資額： SIインフラ展開の加速を反映し、350億〜400億ドル。
• 年末の計算能力： 経営陣は定格能力で2.5〜3ギガワットを見込んでいます。
• 2027年の計算能力拡張： マスク氏は、スペースXが10ギガワットを追加し、2027年末までに合計で少なくとも13ギガワットに達することに強い自信を示しました。同氏は20ギガワットを超える可能性もあるものの、確実性は低いと述べました。
• 第4四半期売上総利益率： 第3四半期は好ましい顧客ミックスと一時的要因の恩恵を受けたため、第2四半期の水準に近くなると予想されます。
• 長期的なARR： マスク氏は、スペースXが2027年末までに年間経常収益で5,000億〜1兆ドルに達する可能性があると述べました。これは急速な計算基盤の導入とSI製品の普及に結び付いた経営陣の見通しであり、正式な四半期ガイダンスではありません。

リスクおよび注目領域

電力、冷却、電気設備などのインフラは、依然としてSI能力拡大の制約要因となっています。スペースXはタービン部品の開発や複数のエネルギー源の評価を行っていますが、経営陣は最も高い導入シナリオの達成には多くの要素が計画通りに進む必要があることを認めています。

設備投資の急増により、多額の資金調達ニーズが生じています。経営陣は、投資適格格付けの維持を目指しつつ、営業キャッシュフロー、投資適格社債市場、およびサプライヤーや顧客基盤全体との潜在的なパートナーシップを活用する計画です。

スターシップの回収、迅速な再利用、および打ち上げ頻度の向上は、引き続き技術的な実行力にかかっています。マスク氏は、飛行試験15回目で両段の回収に成功する確率は五分五分以上であるものの、保証されているわけではないと述べました。

第3四半期のコネクティビティの収益性には一時的な関税払い戻しの益が含まれており、経営陣は全社の売上総利益率が第4四半期には正常化すると見込んでいます。

アナリスト質疑応答のハイライト

テラファブのスケジュール

スペースXは、2027年5月または6月頃にオースティンの研究用ファブで動作可能なテストチップの製造を目指しています。経営陣は、2028年第3四半期または第4四半期にギボンズクリークのテラファブ拠点で量産を開始することを目標としていますが、スケジュールが非常に野心的であることを強調しています。

計算能力の収益化と資金調達

経営陣は、計算能力が社内向け製品と外部クラウド顧客との間で概ね半々に分割されると予想していますが、比率はどちらかの方向に60対40へシフトする可能性もあります。スペースXは、1ワット当たりの有用な知能の価値が時間の経過とともに上昇すると予想しているため、より短期の契約を好んでいます。

同社によると、現在顧客需要は利用可能な計算能力を上回っており、契約更新は1ワット当たりより高い価格で行われています。経営陣はまた、確実な結果として提示したわけではないものの、2027年には投資回収期間が6ヶ月に短縮される可能性があることも示唆しました。

テスラとの統合の可能性

マスク氏は、株主からの要請を受け、スペースXとテスラの独立した特別委員会が潜在的な統合について協議していることを認めました。同氏は取引条件については何も合意しておらず、合併が確定したわけではないことを強調しました。いかなる提案も、テスラの全株式の50%以上の賛成を含む株主承認が必要となります。

スターリンクのネットワーク戦略

経営陣は、Sバンド帯のスペクトラムがモバイルトラフィックの大部分を担い、800MHzの低周波数帯スペクトラムが建物への浸透を支援すると予想しています。また同社は、小規模な地上ラジオ用に既存のスターリンク設置場所やその他の電波塔の場所を活用する計画です。

ルイジアナ州の打ち上げ拠点

スペースXの社内目標は、2028年にルイジアナ州で最初の打ち上げを実施することです。マスク氏は、2029年に初の打ち上げおよび事業の拡大が行われる可能性が極めて高いと述べました。

決算説明会トランスクリプト全文

決算説明会の完全なトランスクリプト

経営陣による説明

Andrea Williams

Hello, everyone. We are coming to you live from our Starlink factory and future Starmind production site here in Bastrop, Texas. I'm Andrea Williams, Head of Investor Relations, and thank you for joining us for SpaceX's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Presentation.

Joining us are Elon, Gwynne, and Bret, and we are live streaming on X. Our third quarter financial results were announced just after 3:00 p.m. Texas time, and all relevant materials have been published to our Investor Relations website at ir.spacex.com. For today's presentation, our prepared remarks will be followed by a question-and-answer session. We will take live Q&A from equity analysts and then move to questions directly from our investors that were polled on our dedicated earnings Q&A platform, which the SpaceX team built with Grok.

During this webcast, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in our earnings release and the most recent filings with the SEC, including our final prospectus. During the presentation, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. In today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC, you can find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including all of the reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures. For the third quarter of 2026, we announced the following financial results as compared to the prior year period. revenues of $14.6 billion, up 161% from $5.6 billion; net income of $4.4 billion, an improvement of $5.5 billion from a net loss of $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8 billion, up 306% from $2.2 billion.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Elon.

Elon Musk

Thank you. So we are in an inflection moment for SpaceX across launch connectivity and Super Intelligence. Starting with Starship, Flight 14 was a critical milestone. Starship made it to orbit for the first time and deployed operational Starlink V3 satellites. I think we have a recap video we're going to play.

[Presentation]

All right. For Flight 15, which we expect to happen next month, we're going to attempt to catch both the booster and the ship. This will be the -- if we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered. This is a massive technology milestone. The only way that we can extend consciousness beyond Earth on a sustained basis is with a fully reusable orbital launch vehicle. So this is -- I think this is a profound technology milestone in the history of civilization consciousness. So let's look at what simulation of Flight 15 would look like if we succeed. If we don't succeed in Flight 15, we'll get there. So success is not guaranteed on these first flights, but I'd say it's more likely than not that this succeeds next flight. And if not, we have a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year and then accelerating next year. So with that, the Flight 15 simulation.

[Presentation]

We've also announced the development of the Louisiana spaceport. So that's going to be an incredible asset to the country and to the world that will, I think, at some point, probably have on the order of 20 or more launch towers and enable the transport of millions of tonnes per year to orbit and beyond. So that's really going to be a big deal.

We expect Starship to fly weekly at some point in the first half next year and then second half next year, twice weekly or maybe even more frequently than that by the end of next year. The rate at which we launch Starship will increase dramatically as we solve the rapid and complete reusability. So we'll have complete reusability. Then at first, there will be a little bit of refurbishment that's needed between each flight, and we'll iron out the need for any refurbishment such that you can immediately land the rocket and launch it again just like an airplane. As I said, this is a profound technology milestone that most people in the world don't realize how important it is, but it will be obvious in hindsight.

Starlink is also just getting started. Flight 14 deployed 26 terabits per second of Starlink bandwidth. That's equivalent to 10 Falcon 9 launches. So a single starship launch, which wasn't even fully loaded. It was about maybe half loaded, and it did the equivalent of 10 Falcon 9 launches. So what I expect over time is, not in the distant future, probably within three years is that we will have about 100x the bandwidth of the current Starlink constellation. So because we will have launched satellites with an order of magnitude more bandwidth, and we will place into orbit an order of magnitude more Starlink satellites. So probably something on the order of 100,000 satellites, each of which have more than 10x the bandwidth of the current Starlink system.

So I think revenue for Starlink will be at least somewhat proportionate to the total bandwidth delivered. And we will also have direct-to-sell, high-bandwidth direct-to-sell capability, and we will be building out our terrestrial network. So there's broad-based connectivity anywhere that space like Starlink are allowed to operate. So anywhere in the world that we're allowed to operate. And I think the demand for bandwidth is going to be dramatically higher than it is today. I think in three to five years, there's probably a demand for 1,000x more bandwidth than there is currently because AI or SI agents will on a per agent basis, use far more bandwidth than a person, and there will be far more agents than there are people. So this ends up requiring a several order of magnitude increase in communication bandwidth in order to satisfy that communication demand.

So talking about SpaceX Super Intelligence, SpaceX SI sexy, whatever. So as I think people are starting to realize the constraint on deployment of super intelligence is more in power and cooling and infrastructure than it is in chips. So what we've done at SpaceX is we've taken a team that has been able to achieve a market share in mass to orbit that is almost 90% of all mass to orbit of earth, where China is about, I think, roughly 6% and the rest of the world combined, including the rest of the U.S. is about 4%. So a team that has been able to achieve results that are in order of magnitude greater than the rest of our -- of all competitors in space combined and applied that same team to the deployment of terrestrial compute. So this is a bit like the New York Yankees playing in Little League. It's not fair. But the net result is being able to deploy power cooling infrastructure at a rate that is vastly faster than anyone else and may, at some point, be faster than everyone else combined. So I just let that sink in for a minute.

So I've been spending personally a lot of my time in Memphis, often four days a week, night and day, just getting the Memphis Supercompute cluster Colossus II online. We're tracking to be able to bring roughly 200,000 GB300s online per month for every month for the remainder of this year and continuing that pace next year. With next year being primarily Rubin, Vera Rubin compute. At this point, I would say -- I would say I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of compute online in 2027. That would be in addition to the roughly 3 gigawatts, maybe 2.5 to 3 gigawatts that we'll have online by the end of this year. So I put it this way. I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year.

And as I mentioned earlier, we're -- power cooling, electrical equipment infrastructure is somewhat of a limiting factor. So to make sure that, that is not a constraint for our build-out, we're actually going to aim for an incremental 20 gigawatts of power cooling and infrastructure next year. So that the amount of power and cooling that we have is far in excess of what is needed for -- to turn the GPUs on. So there's a non-zero possibility. Maybe it's a small possibility at this point, but it's not zero, of having -- of SpaceX having over 20 gigawatts of Super Intelligence compute online next year. A small possibility, but it used to be zero, it's not zero anymore.

We're also planning to have the most powerful training cluster online by the end of Q2, which will be 440,000 Vera Rubin computers deployed for optimal training. This will, I think, be extremely helpful for getting Grok to be potentially the best model, but certainly to be extremely competitive. So on the Grok bot side, we're seeing the fastest growth of a product that I've ever seen in my life for Grok bot. I've never seen anything grow this fast.

We're also seeing that the usage of Grok bot grows over time per user, it does not decline. So as we make Grok bot more useful, it's actually -- we're seeing users use it more per week, not use it less. And we'll be deploying Grok Bot at scale for enterprise customers, which is a very big deal, so they can be used effectively in teams by companies as though we're a virtual human. We already are in early deployment with some trusted customers, and we expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for Grok bot. I think Grok bot may end up being what uses most of our Super Intelligence compute.

So I mean in a nutshell, what this implies for SpaceX annual recurring revenue by the end of '27 is somewhere between $500 billion and $1 trillion.

Bret? Are you going next, sorry.

Elon Musk

Sorry. I thought on that crazy note, I thought.

Gwynne Shotwell

On that crazy note.

Elon Musk

Yes, I don't want to give Bret a heart attack.

Gwynne Shotwell

Thanks, Elon. So we had an exceptional execution and quarter again. And today, I'll focus both on the operational and the commercial highlights as well as talk about the priority initiatives for next quarter.

Showing a slide with the KPIs, and I'll go ahead and walk through it. Starting with our Space business. We remain the leading launch provider for the world, flying the vast majority of payload mass to orbit. During the third quarter, our 35 launches included 21 flights of Starlink on Falcon 9, 2 flights of Starship, a Falcon Heavy, which I'll talk about in a second; and 12 high-profile customer missions, including the Falcon Heavy launch, which we flew NASA's Roman Space Telescope into deep space. We also flew six national security space launch missions. We've also secured important new business, winning three additional human space flight missions on Dragon, which will take us through 2028, along with the Starlink Communications contract on NASA's Artemis III mission. In addition, we signed 18 new national.

Security space launch missions, a contract to deliver payload to the lunar surface with Starship and three new Starfall missions on Starship. We just did a Starfall mission today, by the way, on Falcon 9. Starfall is our space capsule, which provides routine access -- routine relatively low-cost access to microgravity environments for scientific research, including improving our understanding of diseases like cancer and diabetes and developing better protocols for patients here on Earth.

During the final week of the quarter, we flew Starship Flight 14 to orbit, as Elon talked about, followed just after on October 1 by a triple header. We threw three Falcon missions across our three Falcon launch sites in just 13 hours. Crew-13, we brought safely to the International Space Station, a Falcon-heavy NRO mission and a rideshare mission flying 130 payloads. It's incredible display of what we can deliver in a single day across crew, commercial and national security missions.

We're also incredibly excited for what's ahead for Starship, flying the largest payloads to help build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starship's Flight 14 was a major technical milestone, and we remain on track with our goals to bring back both the first and second stages to the tower this year, refly the second stage by early next year and ramp our launch cadence as we make progress towards rapid reusability. We'll attempt an on-orbit refueling early next year, and we'll begin flying Mobile V2 and Starmind satellites in 2027.

We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA, and we expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages. I'm also extremely excited about expanding the Starship operations to Louisiana with the second Louisiana purchase. The geography of Louisiana, the community and their work ethic is so aligned for an amazing Starship future.

Moving on to Starlink. We had another standout quarter, driven by continued growth across both our consumer, enterprise and government businesses. We ended the quarter active in 174 markets, including new market launches for Vietnam and Uganda. Looking at subscriber growth, we added 1.6 million consumers, not total users, but consumers in the quarter, reaching just under 14 million global broadband consumer subscribers. As I mentioned, this number does not include additional hundreds of thousands of enterprise subscribers and aviation customers. We remain incredibly inspired by the impact of Starlink on communities around the world, including providing service to hundreds of thousands of students and teachers in schools globally as well as for emergency response during natural disasters.

Over the third quarter, Starlink's rapid response capabilities enabled support across 25 crises, including the Venezuela earthquake, the earthquake in Western Colombia and Hurricane Lowell in Hawaii. In Venezuela alone, Starlink donated over 1,400 kits to response agencies, providing critical Starlink broadband connectivity to over 250,000 people.

As we mentioned last quarter, we continue to see significant growth opportunities on the enterprise and government side of the business with aviation a continuing major focus and fixed site gaining momentum. Starlink is now contracted for roughly 12,000 planes, almost 1/4 of the available aircraft, and we're expanding quickly with both new and existing customers. We signed agreements with three of the four major U.S. carriers, along with a growing list of leading international airlines. During the quarter, Lufthansa, Swiss, Copa Airlines, Korean Air, Austrian Airlines and Asiana Airlines all flew their first Starlink-equipped aircraft. To keep pace with this demand, we've quadrupled aviation production rate since the beginning of the year, and we expect to double before the end of the year.

Our aviation partners report that Starlink has become a key reason customers choose to fly with them, both business travelers who increasingly rely on full connectivity in the skies or even individuals who want to stay connected all the time everywhere. Our data shows Starlink and frankly, our customers tell us that Starlink equipped flights carry higher load factors on the planes and full connectivity is quickly becoming table stakes for passengers.

On the government side, Starshield continues to deliver unique mission-critical capabilities, and we see further room for growth. We remain on pace for enterprise and government revenues to exceed consumer connectivity revenues in the future, each. The successful deployment of the operational V3 broadband satellites on Starship's Flight 14 marks an important step and an inflection point for Starlink. The increased capability from these satellites, as Elon talked about, and the Starship launcher itself will provide additional capacity across markets and enable new sales in high-demand areas. We expect the market for communications to grow far beyond just human communication that we traditionally think about. Connecting cars, robots and the adoption of Super Intelligence will increase communication demands, not in percentages, but in many orders of magnitudes. In the years ahead, we expect Starlink will represent a significant -- Starlink alone to represent a significant portion of global Internet traffic.

In mobile, we continue to expand international partnerships, turning on service with new carriers across multiple countries in the third quarter, including Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kazakhstan and Costa Rica. We surpassed 22 million monthly users on Starlink Mobile as of the end of the quarter, up 37% quarter-over-quarter. Our near-term priority remains flying the mobile V2 constellation through next year and integrating our spectrum purchases to turn on service in early 2028. Just a few weeks ago, we received approval from the FCC to launch 15,000 mobile V2 sats and announced an agreement to acquire a portfolio of low-band spectrum, which will pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the U.S.

Moving to Super Intelligence. The industry continues to demand ever more massive amounts of compute. We're rapidly expanding capacity to meet both our own needs as Grok and related products scale and those of our cloud service customers. Enterprise feedback on recent model releases has been positive and Grok bot, in particular, is seeing strong adoption out of the gate. Grok bot, our Agentic Assistant, launched in August, and we already had paid weekly users of 800,000 earlier this month, more than doubling over the last month. B2B is our fastest-growing category with companies increasingly using Grok bot as a force multiplier across sales, marketing, IT and engineering, treating it as an always-on teammate for complex end-to-end workflows.

We're also accelerating our Grok model release cadence with significant performance gains expected in the near term -- well, have been and more in the near term. At the same time, the integration of Cursor continues to progress well, strengthening both our product capabilities and our go-to-market reach with a scaled enterprise sales force. Early evidence of this momentum is already visible. Grok Enterprise customers with more than $1 million in run rate revenue, including Cursor, were up 50% quarter-over-quarter on a pro forma basis. Last week, we further integrated the portfolio by announcing a new scheme that brings together Grok, Grok bot, Cursor and X Premium on a single plan.

In review, our business is experiencing extremely strong momentum across all three segments, our engineering teams are scaling Starship and next-generation satellites across broadband, mobile and Starshield, while our commercial teams expand Starlink across aviation, enterprise, government and global markets. At the same time, we're scaling our Super Intelligence business in the key areas of critical compute infrastructure, leveraging our hardware expertise.

Now Bret, you get to go.

Bret Johnsen

Thank you, Gwynne. We delivered another strong quarter in Q3. Revenue grew an impressive 161% year-over-year to $14.6 billion, fueled by the continued momentum in the connectivity business and our clear inflection point in the Super Intelligence or SI business. Adjusted EBITDA once again grew faster than revenue to $8.8 billion, up 306% year-over-year. The combination of our launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue and the significant expansion of our SI infrastructure business have combined to drive meaningful operating leverage in the business. Our balance sheet remains very strong, and our focus on capital allocation continues to keep us in a position to accelerate the pace of innovation that underpins the significant revenue opportunity across all of our businesses.

I'll now walk through the financials by segment. The space revenues of $1.8 billion were up 84% sequentially and up 6% year-over-year, anchored by a favorable customer mix. We're on track to deliver strong growth for the year based on our robust customer manifest for Falcon and Dragon vehicles. As far as capital allocation, we continued to invest in our Starship program, accelerating Raptor engine and vehicle production, advancing Gigabay construction and progressing multiple launch pads at both Starbase and the Cape. And importantly, we secured the location for the next phase of United States space launch leadership in Louisiana. These investments remain essential to unlocking the step change in cost and capacity that Starship will deliver.

Connectivity, again delivered robust revenue growth and profitability with revenues of $5.2 billion, up 69% year-over-year and 22% sequentially. As Gwynne mentioned, we reached 13.6 million Starlink consumer subscribers, adding 1.6 million subscribers just in Q3 alone, driven by growth in more developed markets. During the quarter, we began ramping production of our V5 kits, which supported our progress on alleviating inventory constraints. We strategically managed our channel distribution and prioritized delivery of kits to retail channels ahead of the holiday season, which we expect will lead to increased activations in Q4.

Starlink consumer average revenue per user, or ARPU, monthly average revenue per user increased 5% sequentially to $69 per month, benefiting from a favorable customer mix dynamic in the quarter. Enterprise and government revenues grew 91% year-over-year and 18% sequentially, highlighted by growth in our Starshield program with the United States government and the continued momentum in the aviation industry. Aviation remains a major growth opportunity as we're still early in the installation phase with many of the largest carriers worldwide and have line of sight into an accelerated activation path into '27 for our key partners.

Connectivity gross profits doubled year-over-year with gross margins of 55%, including a onetime benefit of roughly 3%, primarily driven by tariff refunds in the quarter. Excluding the onetime benefits, though, adjusted EBITDA margins expanded roughly 2% year-over-year. Looking ahead, the satellite road map is a key driver of both the capacity and capability of our Connectivity segment. Through the end of the year and throughout 2027, we expect to deploy V3 broadband satellites in meaningful volume with each Starship launch ramping towards a payload that delivers over 20x the downlink capacity of the current generation of Falcon 9 launches today. In parallel, we will ramp Starlink Mobile V2 satellites on Starship starting in 2027 and leverage our newly enhanced wireless spectrum portfolio to expand our direct-to-sell service and become a major mobile carrier, as Gwynne mentioned, in the United States. Across all three of our connectivity applications, Starlink Broadband, Starlink Mobile and Starshield, the launch cadence on Starship is expected to drive a step change in total capacity coverage and service quality.

SI or Super Intelligence was again the standout growth driver for the quarter. segment revenue increased substantially to $7.6 billion, up $5 billion quarter-over-quarter and $6.7 billion year-over-year, primarily powered by the ramp of our cloud services agreements. We meaningfully improved the segment's profitability profile as we monetize newly deployed capacity and delivered powerful operating leverage for the business. We ended the third quarter with 1.7 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity with additional data halls already online in early October.

For SI Solutions and Infrastructure, revenues were $7 billion, of which $608 million came from the Cursor acquisition closed roughly mid-quarter. And even excluding Cursor, SI Solutions and Infrastructure revenues grew 192% sequentially, driven primarily by the activation of new cloud services agreements. There are many customers asking for compute, and we're actively building the supply to meet both internal and external demand. We expect to have additional new customers in future deals and we'll continuously evaluate the highest margin usage for our compute assets across both new and existing cloud service agreements and serving inference for our own SI products.

What we're seeing in the market is extraordinary. At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year. Pricing is currently tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range we were discussing just last quarter, which further supports the attractiveness of these terrestrial SI compute investments. We'll continue to be demand-led and prudent in the pace of deployment, matching our disciplined and proactive capital planning for procurement of semiconductor supply to the near-term customer demand. Our current customer contracts for SI compute have the benefit of allowing us to flexibly manage our capacity for our own model training purposes as well as be able to monetize for our SI cloud service agreements revenue at favorable pricing as the market availability continues to tighten.

Advertising revenues grew 19% year-over-year as we build more momentum on the new advertising tech platform that we rolled out just last quarter in Q2.

SI segment adjusted EBITDA was $5 billion, up $3.8 billion quarter-over-quarter and $5.4 billion year-over-year, driven primarily by higher-margin cloud service agreements. SI segment operating income was $431 million, but excluding the $1.2 billion of stock-based compensation expense related to the Cursor acquisition, the segment delivered $1.6 billion of operating profit just in Q3. Double-clicking on the share-based compensation expenses, of the $60 billion equity value for Cursor when we purchased it, $23 billion was attributed towards retaining key employees and replacing outstanding equity awards, including revesting agreements for key executives. These equity awards will be recognized as stock-based compensation over roughly the next 3-year vesting period.

Total company capital expenditures in the third quarter were $19.6 billion, primarily in support of our SI compute build-out, starship infrastructure and satellite production.

We ended the quarter with substantial backlog totaling $63 billion as of September 30, of which $17.5 billion was recognized as deferred revenue. Approximately $42 billion of this backlog is expected to be recognized within the next year.

Looking ahead, demand remains robust across all three segments, particularly in our cloud services business. We remain on track to deliver our previously stated goal of $100 billion in ARR by the end of this year, defined as annualized revenue based on the month of December. SI infrastructure continuing to come online at Memphis and Southaven gives us visibility into an accelerated build path through the remainder of this year. As a result, we're on track to reach nearly 2.2 gigawatts of nameplate compute at the end of this month alone in October and have a clear line of sight, as Elon highlighted, to nameplate compute in the range of 2.5 to 3 gigawatts just by the end of this quarter. Because of the additional capacity coming online this quarter, we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter.

We also expect total company gross margins in Q4 to be more consistent with the second quarter given some onetime benefits and customer mix that we highlighted in Q3. Given the increased visibility into our compute contract pipeline over the next 6 months, we have the opportunity to provide additional look-forward guidance on the acceleration we see in our business in Q1 2027. We now see total company revenues in the range of $33 billion to $37 billion for Q1 of 2027.

In closing, we are in a transformative phase for the company's financial profile. We're investing aggressively across SI compute, Starship development and production and next-generation Starlink broadband and mobile constellations, the three areas we believe will generate the highest long-term returns. These are demand-led investments in markets with visible, tangible returns in the near term. We're building the infrastructure of the future with discipline, focused on capital efficiency, strong returns on invested capital and maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet while still moving with the velocity to capture the opportunity in front of us. The combination of our diversified earnings base, focus on extreme vertical integration and the robust demand in the market for Super Intelligence gives us conviction in the path ahead.

With that, I'll turn it back to Andrea.

Andrea Williams

Thanks, Bret. We're now going to begin the Q&A section. [Operator Instructions]. We will take the first question from Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley.

質疑応答

Adam Jonas

First, Elon, thank you for making flying cars real.

Elon Musk

You're welcome.

Adam Jonas

That was freaking insane. It's my first comment.

Elon Musk

[indiscernible], and that's one of them.

Adam Jonas

It's super inspiring for people all over the world, especially young people that want to build. I got a two-part question on Terafab. You want to make chips. You want to make crazy amounts of chips onshore or in a safe and secure place. So, first, can you confirm if SpaceX has placed orders for EUV machines? If so, when do you expect delivery?

And just as a second part to the question, when you take a first principles approach to the semi fab supply chain, I know you've toured TSMC, ASML, AMD, Lam, these are very impressive companies, as I'm sure you'd agree. Where do you see the biggest areas to improve their processes and supply chain when you do it your way?

Elon Musk

Well, I mean, we're just figuring out chip fabrication. So but I'll give it -- I'll tell you what our internal expectations are, which obviously, I put big error bars on this because we don't know if we will actually achieve this or not. But it's what we're aiming for internally is to make our first sort of test chip functional in approximately May or June of next year. That's just a kind of a SRAM chip something that basically test the line. That's at the research fab in Austin. And we're aiming to -- our aspiration is to reach volume production around Q3 of '28 at Terafab at Gibbons Creek, the main Terafab location.

Now these are very aggressive dates, and we're very appreciative of ASML and all of our other suppliers in accelerating equipment deliveries in order to achieve this outcome. Let's just say that, that outcome of achieving volume production is at least in a set of possible outcomes for Q3 or Q4 of '28. So these are obviously like insanely fast time frames for chip production.

We do have, I think, some significant potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but I don't think I should discuss that on an earnings call. Let's not give away the shop here. But I am optimistic that we will dramatically accelerate chip production and that Terafab will ultimately do what the name suggests, which is to make a terawatt of super intelligence chips per year.

Andrea Williams

We'll take our next question from Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan.

Douglas Anmuth

Great. Elon, can you talk more about just how you're working through those constraints in power cooling and infra and just what gets you comfortable with the 13 gigawatts ending '27?

And then, Bret, if you could also help us understand how you're thinking about the funding requirements just as you look out to that kind of capacity?

Elon Musk

Yes. Well, I mean 3 gigawatts of that or very close to 3 gigawatts is what we expect to have done just in the next few months. So you can just look at the rate at which we are actually deploying and turning on compute.

What I think you hear from, I guess, other hyperscalers is you don't hear a lot of detail about how many GPUs they're actually turning on every month. And with us, you are. I'm being very as precise as possible about this. It's absolutely insane to be deploying providing the power and all the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking and everything else that's needed to turn on 20,000 GB300s a month but that is actually what we're doing right now. And that pace will obviously accelerate next year. We're not going to slow down.

I don't think -- again, I don't want to -- some of this -- if you say like how we're going to get all this power, let's just say like we actually -- we do have a plan that gets to 20 gigawatts of power and cooling by the end of next year. But that is not something that I should spell out. That is highly proprietary because if I tell you about it, others are going to try to do the same thing. And I'm not saying we'll have 20 gigawatts of power. I'm saying we have a plan where if everything goes right, we'll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power, I should say, next year. So 23 gigawatts roughly in total.

Now I don't expect everything to go right. That's why I said I'm confident of 10, highly confident of 10 next year. And 20 is difficult but not impossible. And I mean, some of the things we're doing, I have mentioned publicly. So we're casting the blades and vanes for the turbines. So SpaceX already has a very advanced castings capability that was developed for rocket engines. So we have, I think, actually the most advanced casting capability on earth because the demands for castings for rocket engines exceed the demands for everything and anything else you could possibly imagine.

So taking that incredible team that has, I think, objectively, the most advanced casting technology in the world and saying, hey, can you guys also make some blades and veins for terrestrial turbines is much easier than what they have done in the past. And when we talk to the turbine suppliers, they tell us that the blades and vanes are 12 to 18 months behind the rest of the turbine, meaning they can deliver everything except the blades and vanes 12 to 18 months before they can deliver the blades vein. So casting is this really difficult bottleneck. And if anything, it seems to be getting worse.

So that means that we can bring power online 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else. That's the kind of advantage that's difficult to replicate. Unless someone else is doing advanced casting -- is building an advanced casting shop, they will be unable to compete with SpaceX in this regard. And we're looking at many different sources of power, not just gas turbines. There's -- we obviously want to use solar, wind and every other source of power that we can obtain.

We think there's also a lot of opportunity for inference compute if you manufacture modular inference compute at the factory level and then such that it's -- the power and cooling are built in at the factory and then you distribute modular inference compute clusters all over the country, if not all over the world. That's about as much as I should say about scaling power and cooling. But like I said, at this point, I would say I feel highly confident of 10 gigawatts incremental next year, so 13 total. And some number over 20 is -- the probability of achieving that is rising rapidly.

Bret Johnsen

Doug, the second part of your question related to funding. I think we certainly have the advantage related to others in that we are investment grade, have a very strong balance sheet. And there are a number of available pools of debt capital that we are talking to at the moment related to funding this incredible growth.

The other really important thing to emphasize is the payback period is very short. And so this capability starts to fund itself in a pretty near-term situation. And so the fact even that we're finishing this quarter with more capability starts the funding mechanism even into the first half of next year. So you have your operational cash flows, first and foremost. You have multiple pools of capital available in the debt market, especially because of our investment-grade status and strong balance sheet. And then you also have the opportunity from what we've seen to partner with, I would say, the whole value chain related to -- on the vendor and customer side.

So there's nothing easy about SpaceX for sure. And so might as well have the finance piece be part of the challenge at the same time. But we have a lot of conviction that we were going to be able to do this in a very measured fashion and continue to keep ourselves in that IG status along the way.

Elon Musk

And certainly, if you look at our track record with respect to capital efficiency, Starship and all of our other projects, you'd be hard-pressed to find any company in the world that is as good at capital efficiency as SpaceX.

Bret Johnsen

Exactly.

Andrea Williams

Next question from Edison Yu at Deutsche Bank.

Xin Yu

I'll echo Adam's enthusiasm about the Roadster. So there's been a lot of reporting, a lot of anticipation of a merger with Tesla. I realize maybe you may be limited on what you can say. But if we take a step back, how do you think about the pros and cons of a potential combination? And as part of that framework, are there any roadblocks that you would need to address before embarking on it?

Elon Musk

I mean this is definitely kind of a question where I feel like I'm tap dancing through a mine field. But -- so I have to be thoughtful about what I say here. I think -- so both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders. And these special committees are consist of independent directors. And because I'm a conflicted party, I can't actually be in the discussions of the special committees. So it's sort of -- it's an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking, and I can't be in the conversation.

I mean I don't think we should necessarily assume that -- I think some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty. And I think that would be overstating it. Do I think it would be a good idea, yes. But at the end of the day, the shareholders have to be supportive of this. And particularly on the Tesla side, we will need a 50% vote of all shares, not just those who vote, but of all shareholders. And that's quite a high hurdle to try to achieve.

So and I can just say at this point that the special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there's no guarantee that they will. But I do think there's a lot of merit to combining the companies as we are pretty much in the super intelligence singularity. And -- and there's a lot to be gained from cooperating on developing super intelligent software, chip design, the Terafab, obviously, robotics, mass to orbit with the Starmind constellation.

Gwynne Shotwell

Connectivity.

Elon Musk

Connectivity. So I think it will be a good idea, but it's really up to the special committees of both companies. Like they've got to come up with something, and then that's got to be put to the shareholders as a vote.

Andrea Williams

Next question from Kutgun Maral at Evercore.

Kutgun Maral

I wanted to ask about Starlink Mobile, which has come a long way in a short time, including the recent low-band deal. Even so, there's still some uncertainty about how your spectrum portfolio, even though it's much improved and possibly will continue to grow, can compete with incumbents in the U.S. And part of the unknown for us on the outside is how much coverage and capacity the satellite layer can really provide to bridge the terrestrial gap to peers. So what roles do you expect the satellite and terrestrial parts of the network will play? And how should we think about the traffic mix between them and delivering a 5G-like experience in the U.S.? And maybe more broadly, how much of the connectivity focus is on traditional retail wireless versus what could be a massive physical AI opportunity?

Gwynne Shotwell

Yes. Let me, Elon can fill in some details, but let me point out that the vast majority of mobile connectivity is actually WiFi, right? I think it's something between 85% and 93% is done through WiFi. And keep in mind, Starlink Broadband does a lot of WiFi work as well.

As far as the mix goes, I think we expect that the S-band spectrum will provide the majority. And then obviously, you need the low-band spectrum, the 800 megahertz spectrum to basically penetrate buildings. So if you're not on WiFi, you can still receive the signal. So I think -- and by the way, I'll correct myself if I'm wrong afterwards, but I think the S-band will carry the majority and then the low-band spectrum will carry less, but provide a critical piece, by the way.

And also, we talked last quarter at the last earnings call about smaller kind of not quite tower capable, but smaller radios that we would -- we could put on already installed homes for Starlink, businesses for Starlink, towers as well. So it's not just the spectrum that we've talked about with the S-band. We will basically leverage the real estate from Starlink installs and other towers.

Elon Musk

Yes. I think we probably should do a longer presentation on the game plan for Starlink connectivity and why we think it will ultimately be a business that generates several hundred billion dollars in revenue a year because you are missing some of the pieces that we know about internally. I can say we do see a clear path to several hundred billion dollars a year in connectivity revenue. But I think we should probably describe that in more detail in a forum that's not limited to a few minutes at an earnings call.

Andrea Williams

In fact, we have three minutes left, right?

Elon Musk

Well, we can go a little longer.

Andrea Williams

I'll take the next question from Eric Sheridan at Goldman Sachs.

Eric Sheridan

Maybe if I could turn to the scaling of compute you laid out at the beginning part of the call. When you think about a framework for applying that compute to the external opportunity that presents itself from cloud services relative to the internal needs of that compute for scaling Cursor and Grok bot, how has your view evolved about striking the right balance in that mix? And how to think through the output from a monetization standpoint of what that mix might produce for the business in the next 12 to 18 months?

Elon Musk

Well, the allocation -- the relative allocation of compute to third parties versus internal is something that's going to change from one month to the next. I guess as a rough approximation. Our goal is to kind of split it 50-50, more or less, where half of the compute is used internally and half of it is rented to others. But that number could shift 60-40 one way or the other. It could -- it's going to be dynamic. And obviously, our approach is to rent at the -- effectively the spot market rate as opposed to sign these long-term deals.

Our belief is that the value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease. And the reason for that, I think it should be obvious to people really is that as you improve the AI software, as the models get better and better, they're able to -- you get more useful intelligence per watt. And the value of that compute is proportionate to the useful intelligence per watt. And that's why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new. And I think that's likely to continue.

I think we're going to face a shortage of super intelligence compute. And that shortage is going to remain for a long time. So I think the smart move is to do short-term contracts and to and essentially to make -- to place the bet on useful intelligence per watt increasing rapidly, which obviously has done. So that's what's happened so far.

And also, if you look at, say, how are our short-term contracts renewing? Are they renewing at higher dollars per watt or lower? And we see them renewing at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt. We are also, frankly, hounded relentlessly by every hyperscaler and by dozens of smaller companies to rent more of our compute. So we could rent out our compute several times over if we said yes to everyone. That's just the situation here. That's why I posted that sort of video, video me of the Monty Python cheese shop sketch where the guy goes into a cheese shop to get some cheese and they actually have no cheese. And so he goes like, what about this kind of cheese? What about that kind of cheese? And they really just don't have any cheese.

So we've actually tried to offload some of our inference compute to other cloud providers so that we can use more compute for training. And we get the cheese shop sketch. They'll say like, well, we'll ask them about what about some GB300s, don't have any of those. What about some GB 200s, don't have any of those. What about some TPUs? Now what about some trains? No, what about some -- okay, how about some H100s. And like, well, we might have some overseas somewhere, and then they'll check and come back and say, no, we don't have that either. So it's like it's ridiculous. Yes. So I don't think we're going to have a demand issue here. And like it's not impossible. I'm not saying this will happen. It's not impossible that we will have a six-month payback period for compute next year.

Andrea Williams

We're now going to turn to some questions from individual investors that were posted directly on to our public Q&A platform. So we've talked a lot about compute deployment terrestrially, let's move to a question on V3 sats. So when will capacity gains from V3 satellites actually show up as meaningfully higher speeds and lower latency for users? How many V3 sats are needed before the network feels noticeably better in high-demand areas?

Gwynne Shotwell

I think we'll need a few hundred V3 satellites for people to really feel the impact because right now, with very few satellites, you'll get an impact and then 10 minutes later, it won't be there. So a few hundred satellites, and I think we can achieve that by mid next year.

Andrea Williams

Take #6, which is, can you provide an update on Starbase Louisiana? What's the time line? And what's your current confidence level in achieving a first starship launch from the site as early as 2029?

Elon Musk

Well, our internal aspiration for first launch from Louisiana is actually in two years. So '28 would be -- is our goal. But I think '29 is highly likely. I think we'll be at scale launching from Louisiana at scale in '29. Highly confident.

Andrea Williams

Thanks, everyone. This wraps up the Q3 2026 earnings report. Thank you all for tuning in, and we will see you next quarter.