Teleconferencia de resultados del 3T 2026 de SB Financial (SBFG): crecimiento de los préstamos y expansión del NIM

Puntos clave

• SB Financial registró un beneficio neto en el 3T 2026 de 3,9 millones de dólares y un BPA diluido de 0,63 dólares, frente a los 4,0 millones de dólares y 0,64 dólares del trimestre anterior. El trimestre marcó su 63.º trimestre consecutivo con beneficios.
• Los ingresos operativos totales aumentaron un 9,0% interanual hasta los 18,1 millones de dólares. El ingreso neto por intereses aumentó un 8,8% hasta los 13,4 millones de dólares, mientras que el margen de interés neto se amplió 7 puntos básicos en términos secuenciales hasta el 3,50%.
• Los préstamos alcanzaron los 1.220 millones de dólares, un 9,8% más interanual y un 2,5% más secuencialmente. Esto amplió el crecimiento secuencial de los préstamos a 10 trimestres consecutivos.
• Los depósitos aumentaron un 9,5% interanual hasta los 1.380 millones de dólares, pero disminuyeron 8,3 millones de dólares en términos secuenciales tras la salida prevista de una importante relación mayorista. Los depósitos no remunerados aumentaron 11,5 millones de dólares secuencialmente hasta los 270 millones de dólares.
• La calidad de los activos se mantuvo estable, con activos morosos en 4,3 millones de dólares, es decir, un 0,27% del total de activos. La cobertura de los préstamos morosos superó el 500% y los fallidos netos se situaron por debajo de 1 punto básico del promedio de préstamos.
• La dirección prevé un crecimiento de los préstamos en el rango alto de un solo dígito, de aproximadamente el 8% al 8,5% en 2027. También proyecta un crecimiento normalizado de los gastos del 4% al 5%, lo que refleja mayores costes de personal, médicos y tecnológicos.

Datos financieros principales

Rendimiento comercial y operativo

Los préstamos comerciales siguieron siendo el principal impulsor del crecimiento. La dirección afirmó que aproximadamente el 70% del crecimiento reciente procedió del mercado de Columbus. La cartera activa de operaciones comerciales superó los 53 millones de dólares, mientras que la cartera de construcción comercial podría aportar entre 15 millones y 25 millones de dólares adicionales de crecimiento, una vez deducidos los proyectos que pasan a financiación permanente con agencias.

Los préstamos inmobiliarios comerciales alcanzaron los 643 millones de dólares. La exposición a oficinas se mantuvo por debajo del 5,5% de la cartera total de préstamos, y la dirección declaró que ningún otro segmento representó más del 10% de la cartera de préstamos actual, excluyendo las hipotecas residenciales.

La concesión de hipotecas se acercó a los 78 millones de dólares, un aumento de casi el 15% interanual a pesar de que los tipos hipotecarios se mantuvieron en el 7% o por encima durante gran parte del trimestre. Los ingresos por banca hipotecaria alcanzaron los 1,8 millones de dólares, incluidos 946.000 dólares en comisiones de administración de servicios y 1,26 millones de dólares en ingresos por ganancias en ventas. La cartera de servicios hipotecarios residenciales alcanzó un total de 1.520 millones de dólares.

Peak Title generó 514.000 dólares en ingresos. Los activos bajo gestión de patrimonio e intermediación cerraron el trimestre en 578 millones de dólares. Los préstamos agrícolas aumentaron un 28% interanual hasta situarse cerca de los 84 millones de dólares, mientras que la producción de la SBA aumentó un 24% hasta los 5,2 millones de dólares.

Las oficinas de Angola (Indiana) y Napoleon (Ohio) han generado conjuntamente más de 25 millones de dólares en depósitos centrales de menor coste y 21 millones de dólares en préstamos. A lo largo de su campaña de expansión, SB Financial añadió aproximadamente 586 relaciones comerciales con clientes.

La empresa elevó su dividendo trimestral a 0,165 dólares por acción. La dirección señaló que esto equivale a una rentabilidad anualizada de aproximadamente el 2,2% y un ratio de reparto de beneficios del 26%, lo que marca el 14.º año consecutivo de incrementos en el pago anual de dividendos.

Previsiones de la dirección

La dirección presupuesta un crecimiento del crédito de aproximadamente entre el 8% y el 8,5% para 2027, respaldado por el sector inmobiliario comercial, los préstamos comerciales e industriales y la actividad constructora. Esta perspectiva depende en parte de la conversión de la cartera de operaciones proyectadas y del dinamismo continuado fuera de Columbus.

En cuanto al margen de interés neto, la dirección prevé un descenso de unos pocos puntos básicos en el 4T 2026, un comportamiento prácticamente plano en el 1T 2027 y una aceleración hacia mediados de 2027. Su modelo de base asume dos subidas de tipos hasta finales de 2027, describiéndose el rango del 3,50% al 3,51% como la parte alta del margen esperado.

Se espera que la producción hipotecaria se sitúe entre los 50 y 60 millones de dólares en el 4T, lo que llevará el volumen de todo el año 2026 a unos 280 millones de dólares. La dirección tiene como objetivo un crecimiento de entre el 10% y el 15% en 2027, sujeto a la evolución de los tipos de interés a más largo plazo.

La dirección prevé un crecimiento normalizado de los gastos operativos del 4% al 5% en 2027. Se espera que las mayores retribuciones, los costes médicos y el incremento del gasto tecnológico sigan ejerciendo presión, aunque los costes actuales de consultoría e implantación relacionados con la conversión se describieron como vinculados a proyectos específicos y de carácter no recurrente.

Riesgos y aspectos a vigilar

Los tipos hipotecarios de entre el 7% y el 7,5% continuaron limitando la concesión de nuevas hipotecas y la actividad de refinanciación. El objetivo de crecimiento hipotecario de la dirección para 2027 depende de la trayectoria del tipo a 10 años y de los costes de endeudamiento más amplios.

Los gastos operativos aumentaron más rápido que los ingresos durante el trimestre, ya que SB Financial invirtió en personal de gestión comercial y de tesorería, retribución variable, coberturas médicas y conversiones tecnológicas. La dirección reconoció que los costes de personal y médicos están aumentando a un ritmo mayor de lo previsto anteriormente.

La competencia por los depósitos y los costes de financiación siguen siendo variables importantes. Aunque la empresa afirmó que no dependía de la remuneración de depósitos por encima de las condiciones de mercado, la dirección señaló que podría aumentar los tipos ofrecidos entre 25 y 30 puntos básicos si se requiriera financiación adicional.

Puntos destacados del turno de preguntas de los analistas

• Crecimiento de préstamos: La dirección reiteró un objetivo de crecimiento de aproximadamente entre el 8% y el 8,5% para 2027. Columbus sigue siendo el mercado principal, mientras que se prevé que otras regiones aporten más en el 4T 2026 y el próximo año.
• Capacidad de financiación: SB Financial registró un exceso de liquidez de aproximadamente 65 millones de dólares, el cual la dirección considera que puede cubrir la mayor parte de la cartera actual de préstamos. Se espera que el crecimiento continuado de depósitos basados en relaciones con clientes respalde la concesión de nuevo crédito.
• Sensibilidad a los tipos de interés: La dirección estimó que cada incremento de 25 puntos básicos en los tipos de interés podría aportar un beneficio anualizado de entre 600.000 y 700.000 dólares, antes de considerar la repreciación de los depósitos y otros cambios en el balance.
• Perspectiva hipotecaria: Se prevé que la producción del 4T se sitúe entre 50 y 60 millones de dólares. El escenario base de la dirección apunta a un volumen hipotecario en el rango bajo de los 300 millones de dólares para 2027.
• Perspectiva de gastos: La dirección prevé un aumento normalizado del 4% al 5% en los gastos de 2027, con posibilidad de un gasto superior si este respalda el apalancamiento operativo y una mayor producción.

Transcripción completa de la llamada de resultados

Transcripción completa de la conferencia de resultados

Comentarios de la dirección

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the SB Financial Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call and Webcast. I would like to inform you that this conference call is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will begin with remarks by management, and then we will open the conference up to the investment community for questions and answers. I will now turn the conference over to Sarah Mekus with SB Financial. Please go ahead, Sarah.

Sarah Mekus

Good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to remind you that this conference call is being broadcast live over the internet and will be archived and available on our website at ir.yourstatebank.com. Joining me today are Mark Klein, Chairman, President, and CEO; Tony Cosentino, Chief Financial Officer; and Steve Walls, Chief Lending Officer. Today's presentation may contain forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information, as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures, are included in today's earnings release materials, as well as our SEC filings. These materials are available on our website, and we encourage participants to refer to them for a complete discussion of risk factors and forward-looking statements. These statements speak only as of the date made, and SB Financial undertakes no obligation to update them. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Klein.

Mark Klein

Thank you, Sarah, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2026 conference call and webcast. This quarter represented another period of disciplined execution and sustained momentum across our franchise. As we navigate the current interest rate environment, our diversified operating revenue model continued to deliver the structural resilience required to gather scale, our top-line revenue, and protect core profitability. We experienced balanced performance across our commercial lending operations and fee-based business lines, anchored by proactive margin management and sound credit administration. While planned investments in core systems and commercial services temporarily increased expenses this quarter, our strong fee generation and measured margin expansion provided a constructive offset. We are pleased with our quarterly performance, always with a keen eye on prudent capital management and deployment, organic scale, and long-term shareholder value creation.

Highlights for this quarter include net income at $3.9 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.63, compared to $4 million or $0.64 per diluted share last quarter, marking now our 63rd consecutive quarter of profitability. Total operating revenue reached $18.1 million, an increase of 9% from $16.6 million for the year-ago quarter, driven by net interest income that advanced 8.8% to $13.4 million. Loan balances reached $1.22 billion, reflecting an increase of $108 million or 9.8% from the prior year quarter, and an increase of $29 million or 2.5% from the linked quarter. This performance extends our trend of sequential loan growth now to 10 consecutive quarters. Total deposits finished at $1.38 billion, up $120 million or 9.5% year over year. Our core relationship model continues to provide positive momentum. However, total balances contracted modestly by $8.3 million from the linked quarter due to the anticipated runoff of a rather large wholesale relationship that Tony discussed on our call last quarter.

Non-interest income finished at $4.7 million, up 9.6% year-over-year, and accounted for nearly 26% of our total operating revenue, demonstrating the ongoing value of our diversified fee-based business lines. Tangible book value per share ended the quarter at $18.65, up $1.44 or 8.3% year over year, with our adjusted tangible book value per share (when excluding AOCI) expanding now to $23.03. Asset quality remains a key benchmark in our quarterly performance. As such, total non-performing assets finished at $4.3 million, representing just 0.27% of total assets, and down 5 basis points from the linked quarter. We continue our journey to deliver on our 5 key strategic initiatives we discussed in many prior quarters: revenue growth and diversity for improved performance, greater scale for efficiency improvement, expanded scope for additional services in each household, operational excellence for a stronger brand, and always top-tier asset quality. Taking a little closer look at our revenue diversity, our first initiative focuses on revenue diversity that serves as our structural defense across all economic cycles.

Fee-based teams, driven primarily by our 25 MLOs, executed with precision throughout the quarter. However, with mortgage interest rates at or above the 7% mark for much of the quarter, industry-wide refinance activity has certainly been limited. Given this headwind, we were pleased to deliver mortgage originations for the quarter of nearly $78 million, noting an improvement of nearly 15% over the prior year period. Entering the fourth quarter, our residential pipeline remains consistent at $20 million to $25 million level. Complementing our constrained origination momentum was our steady annual income from our sold residential servicing portfolio that reached now $1.52 billion this quarter, delivering nearly $1 million in servicing fees with $2.8 million earned year-to-date. When combined with our proactive servicing rights hedge, they provide a vital buffer to earnings momentum. Beyond mortgage banking, Peak Title delivered $514,000 in revenue supported by internal commercial lending referrals. And our wealth management team delivered solid top-line support that helped offset mounting margin pressure. Our second key initiative is greater scale to improve efficiency.

The broader market presence identifies opportunities to scale up. For deposit, retention, and expansion remain a priority as the industry broadly deals with funding pressures and mounting competition. Our teams delivered exceptional execution this quarter, highlighted by our non-interest-bearing checking accounts that expanded by $11.5 million from the linked quarter to reach $270 million, representing nearly 20% of our total deposit base. All of this core deposit activity has provided a very stable deposit cost of funds coming in for the quarter at 1.81%, up just 2 basis points from the prior year. This level of high-quality core deposit growth reflects our strong community bank brand and proactive approach to client care. Ongoing consolidation and market disruption across our footprint continue to create significant organic in-market balance sheet growth opportunities. Our commercial lending and TM teams have been on the street and engaging with clients and prospects that seek a more responsive, relationship-based banking partner amid all the disruption. Campaign to date, we have obtained approximately 586 new relationships, including balances that are nearly 30% of our longer-term goal of securing organic growth of $500 million in new loans, deposits, mortgages, and wealth assets.

Furthermore, our targeted de novo office expansions are demonstrating constructive, measured progress. Both our Angola, Indiana, and Napoleon, Ohio offices continue to exceed expectations and have combined to deliver now over $25 million of local, lower-cost core deposits, and $21 million in market-yielding loan balances. Our third initiative centers on deepening existing client relationships for greater scope. Of course, by scope, we mean capturing a larger share of the client's wallet through the identification of comprehensive multi-product solutions. In fact, our hybrid office strategy is specifically designed to facilitate this approach, driving cross-functional internal referrals between our commercial and retail lending teams, mortgage originators, and wealth management advisors. Within this framework, our wealth management division continues to provide a robust array of advisory services with total wealth and brokerage assets under management, finishing the quarter at $578 million. Our alliance with Advisory Alpha, we discussed in prior quarters, is progressing exactly as planned, allowing for a methodical transition of client portfolios to an an enhanced platform and one that provides our clients with direct access to institutional-grade investment solutions. Finally, as we continue to seek a higher level of engagement with our client base to provide a greater level of services per household.

This strategy includes more robust data analytics that enables our sales staff to work smarter and more intentionally with their client base and their unique book of loans and deposits. Measuring growth initiatives per producer is a continuous function at their fingertips and provides immediate feedback on productivity and their level of goal attainment. Our level of engagement has enabled us to expand our number of households now to over 33,000, inclusive of our wealth relationships, credit card portfolio, and our 9,000 households sold mortgage portfolio. Fourth initiative is excellence in operational activity. Achieving scale requires not just top-line growth, but discipline and alignment with our operational activity. The robust $29 million linked quarter loan expansion we achieved this quarter was driven by commercial lending production capacity we have intentionally built over the past several years across greater Columbus, northern Ohio, and eastern Indiana markets. Entering the fourth quarter, our production capacity is apparent, as we now have an active commercial pipeline of over $53 million.

When we include our commercial construction pipeline, we will have another $15 million to $25 million of growth net of projects that we funded in prior years that will be seeking long-term permanent agency financing. Our operating expenses were slightly elevated this quarter at $13 million, reflecting deliberate investments to support our expanding operational footprint. They are tied to 3 operational drivers: adding talented commercial and TM leadership in growth markets, seasonal performance incentive accruals aligned with our loan portfolio expansion, and front-loaded implementation and consulting expenditures required to support our credit card and core platform outsourcing conversions. These technology expenditures are clearly project-driven, non-recurring, and lay the groundwork for greater operating efficiency as we continue to scale up. Despite these elevated transition costs, our underlying financial foundation remains exceptionally solid. Balance sheet capital strength is robust, providing the necessary support for our growth initiatives. Total shareholders' equity ended the quarter at over $144 million, representing a 5.4% increase from the $137 million reported a year ago.

When we exclude the temporary AOCI adjustment, capital is up $11.1 million or 6.9%. And finally, asset quality. Our fifth and final strategic initiative is maintaining top-tier asset quality. Our non-performing assets remain near historic lows at just 27 basis points of total assets. Our disciplined credit oversight is further reflected in the level of our core criticized and classified loan portfolios. Criticized loans dropped sharply year-over-year to $331,000, while our classified loans year-over-year declined by over 24% to just $3.6 million. We also continue to see measured progress in our specialized lending sectors. Agricultural lending portfolio reached nearly $84 million at quarter end, expanding 28% year over year. While slightly below our original 12-month timeline identified last year, we remain firmly committed to growing this key sector and expect to cross our $100 million portfolio goal within the next several quarters.

Likewise, SBA lending production has escalated to now this year $5.2 million or a 24% increase over the prior year. While production is below our expectations, we have added $3.1 million to our balance sheet growth, while gain on sale revenue has now risen to $235,000 and 124% over the same period last year. With that, I will turn the call over to Tony Cosentino, our CFO, to expand on the quarter's financial performance. Tony?

Anthony Cosentino

Thanks, Mark, and again, good afternoon, everyone. Let me outline some highlights and important details regarding the third quarter. On the income statement, as Mark indicated, total operating revenue expanded to $18.1 million or 9% over the year-ago quarter and up 5% annualized from the $17.9 million recorded in the linked quarter. With a strong loan pipeline, Mark, as mentioned, we expect continued growth in interest income. That interest income was driven primarily by our growth of top-line revenue, with total interest income advancing to $20.5 million, an increase of 9.1% from $18.8 million recorded in the prior year. This easily outpaced our interest expense growth of $627,000, which reached $7.1 million, allowing net interest income to advance 8.8% year over year to $13.4 million.

Our net interest margin ratio rebounded this quarter, expanding by 2 basis points year over year to 3.5%, and up 7 basis points sequentially from 3.43% in the linked quarter. This margin recovery was driven by our earning asset yields expanding by 15 basis points from the linked quarter. We continue to see the benefits of our expanded balance sheet that includes ongoing upward repricing across our interest-earning assets. Non-interest income finished the quarter at $4.7 million, up 9.6% from the prior year quarter. Our core mortgage banking contribution reached $1.8 million, up nearly 20%, compared to the third quarter of 2025. Mortgage banking was supported by core loan servicing fees contributing $946,000, while gain on sale of mortgages finished at $1.26 million, generating a gain on sale margin of 1.9%. This quarter, our hedging program was instrumental in managing our market's interest rate volatility, generating $319,000 in revenue with over $500,000 produced year-to-date.

And lastly, we had an OMSR valuation recapture of $43,000 compared to a negative $301,000 impairment in the prior year. Operating expenses totaled $13.2 million for the quarter, up 14.4% from $11.5 million in the prior year. This change reflects the impact of adding talented producers across our footprint alongside higher employee medical expenses and seasonal performance incentive accruals. Collectively, salaries and employee benefits rose to $7.3 million. Additionally, our year-over-year expense comparison was impacted by higher data processing fees, rising to $1.12 million from $723,000 in the prior year and $693,000 in the linked quarter. These line items absorb the necessary consulting and implementation costs for our upcoming credit card and core outsourcing conversions. The efficiency ratio for the quarter was above our recent range, which is average 68% over the last 4 quarters.

The efficiency aberration is reflective of these conversion and personnel investments. However, when we look at operating leverage for the 9-month period, revenue has expanded 8.8% compared to operating expense growth of 4.1% for an operating leverage of 2.1x. Turning again to the balance sheet, loan growth continued to outpace our peer banks and ended the quarter at $1.22 billion, pushing our loans to asset ratio up to a healthy 75.5% compared to 73.4% from the linked quarter. Commercial real estate outstandings continue to drive our loan portfolio balance at $643 million. But we maintain strict granular credit management protocols. Specifically, our exposure to office space remains under 5.5% of our total loan portfolio and excluding residential mortgage portfolio balance. No other segment is higher than 10% of our current loan book.

The loan-to-deposit ratio at quarter end was 88.1%. This included total deposits rising to $1.38 billion. As we highlighted on our last call, we finally realized the migration of a large rate-sensitive institutional deposit into the wholesale market sector. Overall, balance sheet liquidity stayed at a healthy level, and we can comfortably fund our anticipated loan closings well into the fourth quarter and beyond without reliance on wholesale markets for funding. On capital management during the quarter, we continued to adjust our share buyback to just 6,700 shares at an average cost of $2,671. Our approach conserved capital flexibility and avoided shareholder dilution due to our recent market appreciation that exceeded tangible book value of $18.65 at month end by $9.96. As we discussed on our last call, our stock is now trading at over 1.5x tangible book, up from 1.3x in the second quarter and just 1.1x over the same quarter last year.

Moderating our buyback pace from the 28,000 shares repurchased last quarter is a deliberate strategy that preserves the balance sheet flexibility required to support our organic loan growth while continuing to provide a firm floor for our market price. And lastly, to asset quality, our allowance for credit losses was 1.3834% compared to 1.38% in the linked quarter and 1.44% in the prior year. Coverage of non-performing loans now exceeds 500%, consistent with the linked quarter and well above the 345% reported in the prior year period. Net charge-offs as a percentage of average loans returned to historical lows at less than 1 basis point. Down from 6 basis points in the linked quarter and comparable to the prior year. Total loan delinquency ended the period under 34 basis points, and when we exclude those loans on non-accrual, our delinquency rate is effectively 0. I will now turn the call back over to Mark.

Mark Klein

Thank you, Tony. We enter the final quarter of '26 encouraged by the sustained momentum across our commercial lending operations and core deposit gathering. Total assets under our care now exceeding $3.7 billion. Our diversified business model continues to provide the resilient foundation necessary to navigate shifting rate cycles as we scale our bank toward the $2 billion-plus balance sheet objective. This quarter we are also pleased to announce the increase of our quarterly dividend to $0.165 per share and in line with our longer-term goal to elevate our payout as scheduled every other quarter. This dividend represents an annualized yield of approximately 2.2% and a conservative 26% payout ratio for our 14th consecutive year of increased annual dividend payouts. Now let's open the call up to questions from our investment community.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Brian Martin with Brean Capital. Please go ahead.

Preguntas y respuestas

Brian Martin

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Yes, thanks. You know the loan growth you guys talked about was obviously been a nice track record here in recent quarters and just wondering how you're thinking about that, you know, where the pipeline sits today heading into 4Q and you know, kind of next year and any impact you'd expect, you know, given the rate environment. Any thoughts on that would be helpful.

Mark Klein

Yeah, we're looking, of course, we're in the throes of budgeting as we speak. As we've done in prior years, we've averaged around 8% to 8.5% high single digit. Generally, Brian, I think that's where we're looking at in '27. Clearly, Columbus has been the all-star, providing 70% roughly of our growth. Other markets hopefully are going to kick in here this fourth quarter as well as on in the next year. But we have a solid, Steve can speak to the pipeline, but we have a solid commercial pipeline and also a construction C&D pipeline that could be in the $20 million to $30 million, $40 million net after a few credits exit that have been generally poised for institution kind of financing as they stabilize. So we've got a really strong pipeline when you include both facets. Any comments to?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, sure. Just piggyback on that, Brian. I think we feel very good about the pipeline referenced in the earlier comments. Those pulling through. The interest rate environment going forward into the year ahead. Obviously, you know, many folks expect that the rate, those longer term rates will will moderate or at least not continue to grow too aggressively. As we referenced earlier, Columbus is a big deal, a big part of our growth. One of the reasons that market remains robust and not impervious to rates, but perhaps less influenced by rates. A big piece of the puzzle down there is medical as well as educational and those expenditures tend to support that local economy in a way that interest rates don't necessarily impact greatest. We feel good about the public.

Brian Martin

the following year as well. So good pipeline. Yes, okay, and more on the commercial side. CNI and CRE is that I know you also mentioned the AG mark, but you know CRE and CNI is kind of the primary drivers of the growth. Yes, certainly CRE primarily, you know, look at our balance sheet, you can see that, but we continue to explore C&I opportunities and the associated deposits that come with those. Got you. Okay, perfect. And then just on the funding side, just Tony, you talked about the liquidity. So I guess just in terms of deposit growth, how are you, you know, given the competition out there today and your current balance sheet structure? I mean, how are you thinking about deposits in the next quarter or next couple of quarters, just in terms of funding the growth.

Anthony Cosentino

Yes, as I've stated probably every quarter on this call this year, I've been surprised by our level of deposit growth. You know, clearly we've had disruption in our markets through acquisition and other things that have inured to our benefit. I do think we've been able to grow substantially without being a market leader on rate. So I think at any time we probably could, you know, kick it up 25 to 30 basis points if needed to fund where we are. So we have about $65 million of excess liquidity as we sit today. I think that covers most of our current pipeline plus.

Mark Klein

And if we have normalized deposit growth on into '27, I feel pretty good about funding anything else. And Brian, just 1 follow-up comment. It's not like we've been attracting high-cost deposits well above the margin. It's a general direct reflection of our TM talent that we've hired. We have a new gentleman, Shawn, down in Columbus and individuals across Ohio and Northeast Indiana. So that kind of strategy to bring on TM talent is paying dividends.

Brian Martin

Yes, no, that's a good point, Mark. So, okay. How about just last two for me is just the on the margin Tony? I guess in terms of just you know kind of big picture if we we expect a few potential rate hikes here. Just broadly how how you'd expect the margin to kind of to absorb or if those hikes are just how to think about them in the coming quarters here.

Anthony Cosentino

Yes, so, you know, relative to what our current portfolio is, you know, call it, you know, every 25 basis points is probably, you know, call it a $600,000, $700,000 annualized impact to the good for us, given where we are in terms of prime rate financing, assuming nothing else happens. Obviously, there's going to be a reaction on the deposit side there. So, you know how well we manage that delivers that going forward. Our base model is kind of 2 rate increases from now till the end of '27, which I think is fairly conservative and in line with our expectation that still our margin ratio is going to be probably a couple basis points ticked down in 4Q, as it traditionally does, kind of stay flat in 1Q and then accelerate in the midpoints next year. kind of our typical model. But I would think I still believe 350 to 351 is kind of at the upper end of where we're going to achieve.

Brian Martin

going forward. Got you. Okay, that's helpful. And how about last one just on maybe just touch on the mortgage outlook? I mean, obviously with rates where they are, it's a tough market out there. But in terms of how you're thinking about, you know, kind of production and yields in that business, you know, what would you, kind of what's your, you know, big picture outlook there and how we think about, you know, before quarter and then really more heading into '27.

Mark Klein

Well, clearly, Brian, the 7% to 7.5% has put up a major constraint on that business line. That said, we still continue to see some nice activity in the 3-1-5-1 construction lending that we put in our books. It eventually goes Freddie Fannie. And, of course, we continue to field some requests on the higher-end private client mortgages that we put in our books on a variable basis. Tony's got 1 number, I always have a more optimistic number because I think we're going to get a play on the 10-year, which hasn't come yet. But looking in the next year from this year, we're clearly looking for a 10% to 15% increase of where we've found ourselves in '26 on in the '27. But as you know, that's going to be dictated by where the 10-year goes and where rates go. It's definitely taken the pressure off the business line because a bigger balance sheet, operating revenue more NIM is paying dividends because it's the gift that keeps on giving versus doing mortgages of $500 million every year, every time to generate that fee-based revenue.

Anthony Cosentino

I would just add, Brian, you know, I think, you know, we're probably looking at a $50 million to $60 million quarter in 4Q, which, you know, lends the year, call it $280 million. You know, we call, you know, 10% to 15%. That tells us we're in the low 3s for '27. I think on a base model. I still think if we had full disclosure, I think most of the people out there would be shocked at some of our MLOs and the volume they're doing. We have some real stars that even in very tough markets can do significant mortgage volume. Fortunately, it's just not, you know, the depth of all of our MLOs is not to that level, but it is an impressive performance by a number of our participants.

Mark Klein

people. And Brian, the old adage, and we certainly are reflective of this, 80% of our volume comes from 20% of our producers. So like Tony said, we've got some people that do $30 million, $20 million, and $30 million to $35 million every year, whether rates are 12%, 6%, or 5%. We certainly want to find more of those kind of people, but in the interim, we like our positioning, and we're looking for a better '27.

Brian Martin

Got you. Okay. And last one for me was just on expenses. You know, obviously a little noise. You talked about it, Mark, or just if we think into '27, given, you know, the current run rate or just how to think about a decent run rate heading into 4Q in the next year, how are you thinking about that in terms of other additional spends you may have or any thoughts there would be helpful.

Mark Klein

Before Tony fields that question, Brian, at a high level, people, technology and benefits are taking an inordinate bigger bite of the margin revenue. So much like all banks, scale continues to be a big deal for us, but they're increasing at an increasing pace.

Anthony Cosentino

Yes, I I think you know add on to Mark's comments. You know I've been relatively you know, positive that our expense levels can be, you know, kind of under control as we look at 4Q and into '27. I'm turning a bit. I mean, we're seeing more and more on the ground of people costs and medical that is rising at a pretty alarming rate. I do think we're still going to have, you know, call it a normalized 4% to 5% base level of expense growth in '27, but that's certainly higher than where I was, call it 6 months ago. And we do have some expanded technology costs that are gonna take a little bit of a bite. And we've improved our people IQ out there with some of the staff we've hired. And with that comes a little bit higher level of pay to compensate them, but that's kind of the game. Yes, and you know, I hate to say this out loud, Brian, but.

Mark Klein

And Tony, the bet is we'll get higher levels of production from a broader talent base.

Anthony Cosentino

take a double-digit expense growth if we can grow operating leverage 2x to 2.5x and that's kind of the game we played for a number of years and it seemed to have worked out.

Brian Martin

Yes, plus. Yeah, and I just your point about the expenses Tony kind of the run rate that we saw in the 4Q in the third quarter here. You know, just kind of framing it with you if it's a little bit higher growth rate than you have in the past, you know, going into '27, it's best to look at it kind of maybe more year over year. So full year '26 to '27 being a higher growth rate or just use something more along the lines of the current run rate is a better, you know, given it had some of that impact in there, just what's the best way to think about it in terms of how to building going forward? Yes, okay, well cool. I appreciate all the color, guys. Thanks and congrats on a nice quarter.

Mark Klein

Thanks, Brian.

Anthony Cosentino

Thanks, Brian. Appreciate it.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mark Klein for any closing remarks.

Mark Klein

Once again, thanks for joining us this afternoon. Appreciate your participation in our growth of our franchise. We look forward to speaking with you in January to update you on our full '26 operating performance. Thanks and have a good day.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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