Aemetis (AMTX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: 5,2 Mio. USD Nettogewinn und 45Z-Wachstum

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Aemetis wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen Umsatz von 88,2 Millionen US-Dollar aus, ein Plus von 49 % gegenüber 59,2 Millionen US-Dollar im dritten Quartal 2025. Getrieben wurde das Wachstum von Zuwächsen bei California Ethanol und Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, einschließlich der Erlöse aus Steuergutschriften nach Section 45Z.
• Der Nettogewinn erreichte 5,2 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,07 US-Dollar je unverwässerter Aktie, verglichen mit einem Nettoverlust von 23,7 Millionen US-Dollar im Vorjahreszeitraum. Das bereinigte EBITDA verbesserte sich von minus 5,0 Millionen US-Dollar auf 24,8 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Die Erlöse nach Section 45Z beliefen sich auf insgesamt 24,7 Millionen US-Dollar, wovon 20,1 Millionen US-Dollar auf Dairy Renewable Natural Gas und 4,6 Millionen US-Dollar auf California Ethanol entfielen. Die Gesamtsumme enthielt eine kumulierte Nachberechnung (True-up) von 11 Millionen US-Dollar für das erste Halbjahr 2026.
• Sieben genehmigte Pfade im Rahmen des kalifornischen Low Carbon Fuel Standard weisen einen durchschnittlichen Kohlenstoffintensitätswert von minus 380 auf. Laut Unternehmensführung stehen sechs weitere Pfade kurz vor der Genehmigung durch das California Air Resources Board.
• Das Management erwartet, dass das Projekt zur mechanischen Brüdenverdichtung (MVR) zu den Ergebnissen des Jahres 2027 beitragen wird, wobei die größeren finanziellen Auswirkungen nach Bau und Inbetriebnahme voraussichtlich in der zweiten Jahreshälfte eintreten.
• Die Biodiesel-Umsätze in Indien erholten sich von 2,5 Millionen US-Dollar im zweiten Quartal 2026 auf 7,3 Millionen US-Dollar, da die Lieferungen im Rahmen einer Zuteilung über 17 Millionen US-Dollar an die indische Tochtergesellschaft des Unternehmens wieder aufgenommen wurden.

Wichtigste Finanzkennzahlen

Geschäfts- und Betriebsentwicklung

Dairy Renewable Natural Gas

Aemetis betreibt 14 Fermenter, die 17 Milchviehbetriebe über eine 36 Meilen lange Pipeline versorgen, die an die RNG-Produktionsanlage und das öffentliche Gasversorgungsnetz angebunden ist. Mehr als 50 Milchviehbetriebe haben Teilnahmevereinbarungen unterzeichnet. Im Oktober wurden zwei weitere Fermenter fertiggestellt, während Reinigungs- und Verdichtereinheiten für die nächsten 13 geplanten Fermenter bereits eingetroffen sind.

Jede MMBtu Dairy RNG kann Erlöse aus dem Erdgasmolekül, einer LCFS-Gutschrift, einer staatlichen D3-RIN und einer Produktionssteuergutschrift nach Section 45Z generieren. Laut Unternehmensführung ergab das aktualisierte 45ZCF-GREET-Modell für Dairy RNG im Jahr 2026 einen Steuergutschrift-Wert von rund 62 US-Dollar je MMBtu vor Vertriebsabschlägen und Transaktionskosten, verglichen mit 15,20 US-Dollar je MMBtu für im Juli verkaufte Gutschriften.

Die Produktion hat die bisherigen Annahmen des Unternehmens übertroffen. Nach Angaben des Managements liegen die Erträge mit knapp 15 MMBtu je Milchkuh-Äquivalent über dem ursprünglichen Modellwert von etwa 13, auch wenn die Produktion in kühleren Monaten saisonbedingt abnimmt.

California Ethanol

Das Projekt zur mechanischen Brüdenverdichtung soll den Erdgasverbrauch der Anlage in Keyes um rund 80 % senken. Das Management schätzt, dass niedrigere Energiekosten und höhere Werte für LCFS- und 45Z-Gutschriften den jährlichen Cashflow um etwa 32 Millionen US-Dollar steigern könnten, was auf nivellierter Basis einer zusätzlichen Marge von rund 0,50 US-Dollar je Gallone entspricht.

Die Bauarbeiten sind mit den Fundamentarbeiten und der Installation von sechs Turbogebläsen mit je 3.500 PS vorangekommen. Die Transformatoren sollten planmäßig im darauffolgenden Monat eintreffen. Das Projekt hat Zuschüsse und Steuergutschriften nach Section 48C in Höhe von rund 19,7 Millionen US-Dollar erhalten.

Aemetis hat zudem zwei von drei geplanten Maisölabscheidern installiert. Die dritte Einheit soll im Dezember den Betrieb aufnehmen. Das Management geht davon aus, dass die drei Anlagen die Maisölproduktion gegenüber dem Niveau des ersten Quartals 2026 in etwa verdoppeln werden.

India Biofuels

Im dritten Quartal 2026 wurden die Biodiesellieferungen an indische Mineralölgesellschaften wieder aufgenommen. Aemetis bemüht sich zudem um indische und europäische Genehmigungen für den Export von Biodiesel nach Europa; das Management rechnet mit dem Abschluss des Genehmigungsverfahrens im vierten Quartal 2026.

Das Unternehmen gab an, dass seine exportorientierte Einheit keiner formellen Exportbeschränkung unterliege und theoretisch ihre gesamte Kapazität von 80 Millionen Gallonen exportieren könne. Praktische Begrenzungen ergäben sich aus den Rohstoffimporten und der Logistik für den Biodiesel-Abtransport. Vorbehaltlich der Marktbedingungen treibt Aemetis die Vorbereitungen für einen möglichen Börsengang einer Minderheitsbeteiligung an Universal Biofuels weiter voran.

Ausblick des Managements

• Die Fertigstellung der MVR-Anlage wird für etwa Ende des ersten Quartals 2027 erwartet, wobei das Management das erste Halbjahr 2027 als breiteren Zeitrahmen nannte, da Witterung, Komponentenverfügbarkeit und Inbetriebnahme den Zeitplan beeinflussen könnten.
• Der Kostenvorteil beim Erdgas dürfte kurz nach dem Einschalten des MVR-Systems einsetzen. Den größeren finanziellen Gesamtbeitrag erwartet das Management in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2027 nach der Inbetriebnahme und betrieblichen Stabilisierung.
• Die dritte Maisölabscheidereinheit soll im Dezember 2026 betriebsbereit sein.
• Die Aemetis-Tankstelle für Dairy RNG soll im November 2026 mit den Lieferungen an Lkw-Flotten beginnen.
• Sechs weitere LCFS-Pfade durchlaufen derzeit das CARB-Prüfverfahren. Genehmigte Pfade würden die übliche rückwirkende Anpassung beinhalten.
• Das Management rechnet mit den Exportgenehmigungen für Indien und die EU im vierten Quartal 2026, gefolgt von Verkäufen an Händler in Singapur und Europa anstelle einer langfristigen Abnahmevereinbarung.
• Der Rollout der nächsten 13 Dairy-RNG-Systeme hängt vom Abschluss der derzeit laufenden Finanzierung ab.

Risiken und wichtige Beobachtungspunkte

• Die MVR-Fertigstellung könnte durch knappe Lieferungen elektrischer Komponenten, die Witterung und die erforderliche Zeit zur Inbetriebnahme eines neuen Systems beeinträchtigt werden.
• Die Zahlungseingänge aus 45Z-Gutschriften könnten hinter der Umsatzrealisierung zurückbleiben. Zudem wird nach dem MVR-Start eine neue Aktualisierung des LCFS-Pfads erforderlich sein, was den Mittelzufluss potenziell in spätere Quartale verschiebt.
• Die Dairy-RNG-Produktion ist saisonabhängig, da das Unternehmen Fermenter bei Umgebungstemperatur betreibt, weshalb in kühleren Monaten mit einem geringeren Ausstoß gerechnet wird.
• Der Ausbau des Dairy-RNG-Netzes hängt von der Sicherung der Finanzierung für die nächste Implementierungsphase ab.
• Schwere Winterunwetter könnten die Bahntransporte von Mais und Ethanol nach Kalifornien unterbrechen, wenngleich aktuelle Prognosen laut Management nicht auf ein größeres Bahnrisiko im Mittleren Westen hinweisen.
• Biodieselexporte aus Indien bleiben von behördlichen Genehmigungen und praktischen Einschränkungen in der Lieferkette abhängig.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Analysten-Fragerunde

Die Analysten konzentrierten sich auf den Zeitplan und die Wirtschaftlichkeit des MVR-Projekts. Das Management erklärte, dass das System die Ergebnisse für 2027 beeinflussen sollte – mit unmittelbaren Erdgaseinsparungen nach dem Anlaufen, aber einem substanzielleren finanziellen Beitrag in der zweiten Jahreshälfte nach der Inbetriebnahme.

Hinsichtlich der Monetarisierung nach Section 45Z gab das Management an, dass Umsätze nun vierteljährlich bei Generierung der Gutschriften verbucht werden, auch wenn die Barmittelvereinnahmung in späteren Perioden erfolgen kann. Das Unternehmen modelliert generell einen Gesamtabschlag von rund 15 % für Abnehmer, Versicherungen, Broker und Anwaltskosten.

Bezüglich der Ethanolmargen identifizierte das Management mehrere potenzielle Treiber: rund 0,50 US-Dollar je Gallone durch die Wirtschaftlichkeit der MVR-Anlage, höhere LCFS-Gutschriftenpreise, eine gesteigerte Maisölproduktion und eine zusätzliche Ethanolnachfrage im Zusammenhang mit der in Kalifornien ab dem 1. Januar 2027 geplanten ganzjährigen Einführung von E15.

Zum Ausbau von Dairy RNG erklärte das Management, dass die Ausrüstung für 13 zusätzliche Projekte bereitstehe, das Tempo des Ausbaus jedoch von einem Finanzierungsabschluss abhänge. Zu Indien erwartet das Unternehmen den Verkauf von Biodiesel über bestehende Händler- und Lieferkettenbeziehungen anstelle eines langfristigen Abnahmevertrags.

Vollständiges Transkript des Earnings Calls

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Aemetis Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Joining us on today's call are Eric McAfee, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer; and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels.

I will now turn the call over to Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. We will also refer to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure. A reconciliation to the most recently comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release.

Before reviewing detail, I want to highlight that the company posted net income of $5.2 million or $0.07 per basic share in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million. For the third quarter of 2026, revenues grew 49% to $88.2 million compared with $59.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas operating segments from both operations and 45Z clean fuel production tax credits.

Section 45Z production tax credit revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter, comprised of $20.1 million from Dairy Renewable Natural Gas and $4.6 million from California Ethanol. 45Z revenue included an $11 million cumulative true-up for the first and second quarter of 2026 from the regulatory updates to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Biodiesel sales in the third quarter were $7.3 million, rebounding from $2.5 million in the second quarter as delivery to three India oil marketing companies resumed under a $17 million allocation to our India subsidiary.

Operating income was $20.9 million in the third quarter, an improvement of $29.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, which had an operating loss of $8.5 million. Net income was $5.2 million, equal to $0.07 per basic share, an improvement of $29 million compared to a $23.7 million loss in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.8 million in the third quarter, an increase of $29.8 million compared to the negative $5 million in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $33.2 million compared with negative $21.5 million during the same period of 2025. Cash at quarter end was $3.4 million.

In September, we received $22.4 million from the sale of Section 45Z production tax credits. In August, Aemetis Biogas amended its Series A Preferred Unit Agreement to extend the redemption date to December 31, 2026 and to reduce the interest rate on the credit agreement that would apply if the units are not redeemed to the greater of prime plus 5% or 12%. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $20.2 million in the third quarter and $35.3 million for the first 9 months of 2026.

With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric McAfee.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Todd. Let's highlight 3 key takeaways from the third quarter. First, Q3 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the Q2 earnings call with the posting of net income of $5.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million during the third quarter. We continue to grow with consolidated revenue up 49% year-over-year, an improvement in operating income of $29.4 million and increased adjusted EBITDA by $29.8 million compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Second, we now generate higher revenues due to the California Air Resources Board approval about a year ago, of 7 new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of negative 380 compared with the negative 150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters, which was shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of 7 biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue with a higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025, and additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval. These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. And third, our capital projects are advancing with $20.2 million of investment during the quarter.

Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our Dairy Renewable Natural Gas business, every MMBtu of dairy RNG generates 4 revenue streams: the natural gas molecule, a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a Federal D3 RIN that is also sold to oil companies and a Section 45Z production tax credit.

The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuel. So credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored. An LCFS pathway at negative 380 generates substantially more credit per MMBtu than the negative 150 default score. We have 7 approved California LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 carbon intensity with 6 more pathways nearing approval by CARB.

For the 45Z production tax credit, the Department of Energy issued its updated 45ZCF-GREET model on September 8 of this year, which decreased the carbon intensity scores used to calculate 45Z credits for dairy RNG. The credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBtu. The credits we sold in September generated from ethanol and RNG production during 2026, represented a tax credit value of approximately $62 per MMBtu for dairy RNG and $0.33 per gallon of ethanol for 2026 before sales discounts and transaction costs. We received $22.4 million from the September 45Z tax credit sale, and our third quarter results included an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up for RNG dispensed in the first half of the year.

As Dairy Renewable Natural Gas volume grows, all 4 revenue streams grow, but the approval of LCFS pathways in California is expected to create significant increases in revenues from the renewable natural gas production. We operate 14 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 17 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36-mile pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to the utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies that have signed participation agreements. Two new methane capture digesters were completed last month, and we have received 13 additional cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 13 digesters to come online.

Regarding our California Ethanol business, we have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance in addition to further improvements in 45Z values and expected increases in LCFS credit prices. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from 3 positive impacts on our operations. We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keyes ethanol plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil natural gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and the LCFS credit generated by every gallon of ethanol.

The MVR project is making excellent progress. Key equipment arrived this summer, and we have completed major steps in construction of the system, including placement of the six 3,500-horsepower turbofans. Foundation concrete has been completed, and electricity transformers are scheduled to arrive in the next month. The MVR project has been awarded approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the IRS.

Second, in the past few months, we have installed two of the planned three corn oil separation units at the ethanol plant, with the third unit slated to be operating by the end of this year. Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low-carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations issued by the federal EPA. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate, and prices have increased significantly this year.

Our India biofuels business shipped biodiesel to oil marketing companies and commercial customers during Q3 2026. Biodiesel sales rebounded to $7.3 million as we delivered biodiesel to the oil marketing companies under their new tender. We're also building our base of private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. And we have applied to the India and EU governments for approval to export biodiesel to Europe. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from less than 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of additional biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in Universal Biofuels, our subsidiary, subject to market conditions.

Of the milestones we outlined last quarter, the 2 new dairy digesters are now operating, and the Department of Energy has issued the dairy RNG update to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Our outlook on short-term milestones and timing is the third corn oil unit is scheduled to be operational in December, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026. The Aemetis Dairy RNG fuel station is scheduled to begin RNG deliveries to truck fleets this month.

MVR construction is progressing toward completion. Additional LCFS pathways are moving through CARB with the customary look back on approval, and India deliveries across the current allocation period with a focus on exports to Europe after receiving our government approvals.

Thank you to our shareholders, analysts and our partners for your continued support.

Operator, let's take some questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

Fragen und Antworten

Amit Dayal

So Eric, congrats on pretty solid results and cash flows this quarter. Just going to the MVR, it looks like all the equipment is in place, the work is underway. The benefits from this, should we expect that to come through in 2027 financials or 2028 financials?

Eric McAfee

For the MVR?

Amit Dayal

Yes.

Eric McAfee

Those are 2027 financials for sure. I mean, we should say for sure. We should say we fully expect delivery in early 2027 as we are completing construction. And the milestones we've stated for the foundations, placing the units, we have extensive construction going on.

Andy, do you want to give us an update?

Andrew Foster

Yes, I would say the system, we're making good progress on construction. As you can imagine, with the demand for materials for data centers, in particular, is creating kind of a crunch on some of the electric components, but I think we're pretty well lined up with that. So our estimate right now is that we'll have the project completed by the end of the first quarter. I say that loosely, we're saying kind of the first half, but who knows Super El Nino and some other things that could play into that. But we're making good progress and expect, hopefully, by March, we'll be completed with construction.

Commissioning will take some time. It's a new system. And so I would say in terms of financial impact, you're probably going to see it more in the second half of next year than you will in the first half of next year because we'll be completing construction, sort of commissioning the system, getting it up and running, and then we'll start to see that impact. The natural gas impact will happen pretty quickly, though, because once we switch over to the MVR system, we won't be drawing down the 3,700 MMBtus that we're currently using daily. So we'll start to see a financial impact almost immediately on the gas side. But as far as getting things lined out, it will probably take a month or 2 to get that system lined out and then be really kind of cranking it by the second half of the year.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just as a follow-up to that, guys, just for like how -- there was an audit process, et cetera, and there was a little bit of lag between when the credits are being generated versus monetized. Should we expect something similar for MVR to play out as well? Or would that be a little bit different?

Eric McAfee

Our revenue recognition for 45Z revenue is now quarterly. So we would potentially have receivables at the end of the month that are non-monetized 45Zs, which will have a tendency to line up the quarter in which we generate the production, generate 45Z. The cash, however, may be deferred into further later quarters. The initial start-up of 45Z in the first half of 2027 is by necessity going to require us to have a new LCFS pathway update. That will cause us to, as Andy said, push much of the cash into the second half of the year. But we're going to try to accrue revenue as it's generated and for things that are not investment tax credits, it should show up in the quarter in which they're generated.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just last one, I guess. This India biodiesel to Europe sounds very interesting. How long could this approval process take? And would you be capped at what portion of that capacity can be exported?

Eric McAfee

The approvals are largely in process. We do expect them to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. And we have not a cap on export. It's called an export-oriented unit. So in theory, we could send our entire 80 million gallons of capacity to foreign shores. We have just practical execution of inbound shipments of feedstock and outbound shipments of biodiesel that will be larger constraints on the amount we ship. But we will have an operational cap.

Amit Dayal

And then as a part of this, can we maybe expect some announcement around an offtaker for this volume?

Eric McAfee

Probably not an offtaker. We've done this before. We used to be the largest biodiesel supplier to Europe from India until Europe changed their rules. Now they've changed their rules again. And so India has again started shipping to Europe. There's roughly half a dozen suppliers that have started this business over the last year or so. And so we are cooperating with existing suppliers. I think this is one of the strengths of the business. It will be importing feedstock together, and we'll be exporting to the same customers in Europe. I do not expect to do it on a long-term offtake arrangement. I think we'll just be doing a supply chain sales to traders out of Singapore and Europe.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with ethanol. Arguably, the quarter, while strong, still doesn't reflect the full value of where your ethanol margins could grow over time. With that said, could you provide just a walk-through on where margins currently sit per gallon and where you expect them to be post MVR CO2 use and the benefit of potentially lower CI corn?

Eric McAfee

The MVR is projected to generate about $32 million on a levelized basis annually from decreased cost of natural gas and increased LCFS and 45Z revenue. That comes in at roughly $0.50 a gallon of additional margin, and that is in cash. So that's a significant sustainable competitive advantage that we will have. I believe we're the first installer of MVRs in this cycle. I think ADM might have had one at some point or something, but I think we'll be the first one in the country. And what's unique about our plant is that we're located on the California electricity grid, which has a very diligent commitment to getting to zero carbon intensity.

So as the grid decarbonizes in California using more solar, wind and hydroelectric, that directly will improve our CI score. So tapping into that decarbonized grid is an advantage we have here in California that not all states provide. So the MVR is a uniquely energy-efficient implementation in our particular plant. We also have the impact of E15. We didn't talk about E15 on this call, but California is the first state in the country to adopt year-round E15 at the state level. As you know, California is the only state can set its own fuel rules. And so the Senate Bill 795 recently passed and has implementations slated for January 1, 2027. That will be additional capacity requirements about equal to 10 of our plants.

So somebody across the country has to either build a new plant or expand their existing plants to meet this California capacity requirement. And then nationally, of course, the House has already approved and the Senate is pending approval of E15. We don't have any particular projections on when that would happen. But certainly, the recent political events would support biofuels and rural areas. So we think that E15 has some strength in it. That is our underlying margin. The last time we actually had support for the national demand for ethanol, we made $40 million of positive cash flow. So in the actual molecule, this business should be a $0.50 or more per gallon molecule.

And then lastly is the LCFS credit price, even generating the same number of credits. Last year, we only got $42 per credit. Now we're at $90. The cap is $275 this year. There's a long way to run. And the LCFS credits have continued to be not produced at the rate necessary to meet compliance. So there's a deficit. And there's over 10 million credits that disappeared out of the excess bank over the last 12 months. We expect that to continue, and there should be theoretically no excess inventory of credits within the next 24 months. So we are going to benefit from that. Our revenue goes up even with the same number of gallons. So we have a number of significant drivers.

Last point I want to make is we haven't talked much about corn oil, but corn oil is the most attractive, lowest emission rate feedstock for renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. It only has a 10 emissions rate. Tallow is 18 to 20, UCO is 20 to 25, soybeans is 30. So the use of distillers corn oil as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel feedstock should really be a top priority for all those producers, and we are the largest producer to source corn oil in California. And through Andy's team's implementation of 2 of 3, but by the end of this quarter, we'll have 3 operating units separating corn oil. We'll be doubling our corn oil production at a time where the price is roughly doubled. So that's a very promising additional margin for the business. It's, of course, very sustainable.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. And Eric, maybe just touching on the point that you kind of highlighted there on policy. Biofuels generally tends to be supported by both Democrats and Republicans, but given what we've seen with the change, given the Democratic sweep, I mean, are you expecting any changes or anything that might have occurred in California that was a surprise? And anything that you could offer us color as to how you see policy coming together at both the federal and state level would be appreciated.

Eric McAfee

I would say that generally, the rural areas and farmers played an outsized role in this election. And I think we have Democrats now as governors in Iowa and senators from Texas that are Democrats, but that are being voted into play in these rural states, and that's always good for corn and soybeans, which is good for ethanol. Really, the only growth market for corn is E15 ethanol. So the initiative we're looking for, I think, will be supported.

A second factor, and I'll make this very brief, is we're going to have a Congress that really can't get things through the White House and the White House that really can't get things through Congress, which is very, very good for the biofuels business. Stability in policy is just tremendously supportive of our financing efforts, our growth efforts. It is really a wonderful situation we find ourselves where we don't have to worry about Congress coming up with an idea and immediately implementing it. It's probably the opposite of what investors are thinking, but I can tell you, as operators of this business, we are looking forward to the stability in policy, which we should see and supportive policy when it happens.

Derrick Whitfield

And then Eric, one last, if I could. Just on the dairy RNG business. As you look out into next year and the pipeline of farms that you guys have to bring on, what kind of pace would you expect for next year?

Eric McAfee

We have financing in process right now. I think that news is something we'll be reporting here over the next couple of months. And we have 13 long lead time items that we've received very strong support from our vendor to get built. So our ability to deploy those 13 rapidly is certainly in place. We just need the financial closing to accelerate beyond the current pace we have right now.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Dave Storms from Stonegate.

David Storms

I wanted to start maybe with -- when I'm thinking about RNG production, it looks like the last 2 quarters, you were running about 600,000 MMBtus on an annualized basis. I know in the recent release in October, it was also reiterated that the 600,000 should be a good run rate. With the addition again up to the 14, though, how should we be thinking about the out year in terms of MMBtu generation?

Eric McAfee

We have a seasonality directly correlated to the weather. Our technology is a passive solar dairy biogas digester. So the solar component of that means that during the wintertime, there's less solar energy, we don't have as much production. So if you look back over a 6-month span, you're looking back over the summer. And when you analyze from that, yes, 600,000 plus would easily be calculated. I can say, though, that we have performed above expectation.

Andy, do you want to talk about yields and some other things?

Andrew Foster

Yes. So we're -- I mean, I think originally on our models, we had ourselves at about 13 MMBtus per wet cow equivalent, and we're running closer to 15 at this point. So we, I think, run a very efficient operation. And as Eric mentioned, during the summer months, obviously, things crank. Ambient temperature digesters do get impacted seasonally. So as we head into the cooler months, that number probably goes down a little bit. But we have found that our systems are very efficient and our production has exceeded our forecast for the last 2 years. So I would anticipate as we continue to add digesters that, that trend will continue.

David Storms

Understood. That's great commentary. Turning to the 45Z production tax credits. It's mentioned that there's obviously a discount that you receive in the market. With the update to the model, are you starting to see those discounts decrease? Or just maybe any comments you have on the tax credit market, please?

Eric McAfee

Yes. Our observation has been that the production tax credit market has not changed very much. We usually model about a 15% discount all in, including insurance and lawyers and brokers and tax lawyers and more tax lawyers. That's probably more of a discount than we're actually getting, but that's the way we usually model it. And that includes the discount to the buyer.

David Storms

Understood. And then maybe just one more, if I could. Looking out, you mentioned earlier in the call super El Nino. Just any thoughts on the impact that might have on ethanol in the coming 12 to 15 months?

Andrew Foster

It sort of depends on where the weather pattern settles in, but all the forecasts that we've looked at are showing a warmer, drier upper Midwest kind of Plains states, winter. And that's -- generally, when we think about the impact, it's really in transportation, it's in rail, getting the corn to California. If you go back to -- and I don't remember what year it was 2015, somewhere in there, where we had a series of these polar vortexes where the railroads were severely impacted. That's really what we're keeping our eye on.

As far as California goes, we're expecting a lot of rain is what they're saying. Good news is the plant is in an area that doesn't have flooding. So we're equipped to operate the plant in all kinds of conditions. So that's less of a risk for us. I think it's really more around what happens with rail transportation as this system sort of settles in and where it's going to be impacted. Some of the trains do come through the South through Texas. That could be a liability if there's ice storms down there. So at this point, I'd say we're not really worried from the perspective of ongoing operations unless we start seeing major disruption in the rail system in the United States, that could cause some issues.

Eric McAfee

And we happen to have 2 things that come to California that impact our business. Number one is corn. There's 1.7 million dairy cows in California that have to be fed, including corn. So that tends to be a high priority cargo coming to California. In the past, there's been a lot of handwringing and issues, but for some reason, they always seem to get the corn through just the last minute, which is good. The other thing coming to California is ethanol. And with California adopting 15% ethanol, another 600 million gallons, that's coming from California. And a couple of times, the polar vortex has just been this magic moment in which California is very short ethanol and they decide not to bring the ethanol cars through. That's nothing to plan on. It's just something that happens once in a while. And this is -- that would be one of the factors in our business model is does ethanol flow to California at a slower rate because of some track out positions...

Andrew Foster

And I would just add in those scenarios, the railroads tend to prioritize feed over fuel because there's live animals on the other side of it. So if you go back again, when we've had rail disruptions, they typically find a way to prioritize corn because you have whether it's chick poultry or cattle that are being fed and rely upon that, they tend to get prioritization. But again, the way the current weather pattern, at least what we've been looking at is setting up, hopefully, there won't be a big impact from a rail perspective as the Midwest doesn't look to be having a real super cold winter with a lot of precipitation.

Eric McAfee

One other item that I'm sure everybody is looking at is, is corn going to be in short supply and therefore, price increase. The opposite was what the USDA came out with recently, which I think was a bit of a surprise to the market and caused the price of corn to go down quite a bit. So they'll be a little struggling around the idea of is there a lot more corn coming out of South America or even Ukraine or elsewhere than what people expected.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo from Ascendiant Cap.

Edward Woo

My question is going back to India. You said you guys are preparing still for the IPO, the minority stake due to market conditions. What are the market conditions right now for listings on the India stock market?

Eric McAfee

India stock market has had a tough year. They have had a 5-year run with excellent IPOs. And now they're about to start recovering. The IPO of Jio, the largest cell phone company owned by the family-owned Reliance is sort of a rejuvenation of the India market. One thing that has been resilient in India is retail investors. And the -- it's a socialist country. So 50% of every IPO must be sold to retail, and retail has been very resilient in India. So with the -- what we expect to be, what we plan to be is the start of exports to Europe, that would drive revenues as well as profits out of India operations, and we're excited how that would be lined up in an IPO transaction.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Eric McAfee for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.

Todd?

Todd Waltz

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the Investors section of the Aemetis website.

Matthew?

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.