The GEO Group (GEO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Rekordumsatz, angehobene Prognose

Die GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) verzeichnete für das dritte Quartal des Geschäftsjahres 2026 einen Rekordquartalsumsatz und ein bereinigtes Rekord-EBITDA, gestützt auf neue Verträge mit der US-Einwanderungs- und Zollbehörde ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), eine höhere Auslastung der Einrichtungen sowie Zuwächse bei den Transportdienstleistungen. Das Management hob seinen Ergebnisausblick für das Gesamtjahr 2026 an und rechnet für das vierte Quartal mit einem weiteren Rekordquartal.

Zentrale Ergebnisse

• Der Umsatz im dritten Quartal 2026 stieg im Jahresvergleich um 12 % auf 761,1 Millionen US-Dollar, während das bereinigte EBITDA um 21 % auf 145,3 Millionen US-Dollar zulegte. Beides stellte neue Quartalsrekorde für GEO dar.
• Der bereinigte Nettogewinn stieg um 48 % auf 51,8 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,39 US-Dollar je verwässerter Aktie. Der auf die GEO-Geschäftstätigkeit entfallende GAAP-Nettogewinn belief sich auf 49,2 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,37 US-Dollar je verwässerter Aktie.
• GEO hob die Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 für das bereinigte EBITDA auf 568 bis 573 Millionen US-Dollar und für den bereinigten Nettogewinn auf 185 bis 190 Millionen US-Dollar bei einem Umsatz von 2,975 bis 3,025 Milliarden US-Dollar an.
• Im Jahr 2026 neu abgeschlossene und erweiterte Verträge entsprechen nach Angaben des Managements einem zusätzlichen Jahresumsatz von rund 500 Millionen US-Dollar. Vier neue ICE-Einrichtungen mit insgesamt rund 4.800 Plätzen sollen voraussichtlich 2027 den Betrieb aufnehmen.
• GEO schloss den Verkauf des Adelanto-Komplexes an das US-Heimatschutzministerium für 950 Millionen US-Dollar ab. Rund 705 Millionen US-Dollar an Nettoerlösen dienten der Tilgung vorrangig besicherter Anleihen im Volumen von 650 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Der Verwaltungsrat erweiterte die Genehmigung für Aktienrückkäufe von GEO um 750 Millionen US-Dollar auf 1,25 Milliarden US-Dollar bis zum 31. Dezember 2029. Das Management erklärte, dass Rückkäufe neben dem weiteren Schuldenabbau weiterhin Priorität genießen.

Wichtigste Finanzergebnisse

Die Betriebskosten erhöhten sich um rund 8,5 %, was die Inbetriebnahme von ICE-Einrichtungen und eine höhere Auslastung widerspiegelt. Die Gemein- und Verwaltungskosten stiegen im Verhältnis zum Umsatz von 9,1 % auf etwa 9,5 %, hauptsächlich aufgrund zusätzlicher Aufwendungen für die Geschäftsentwicklung.

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Die Umsatzerlöse im Bereich konzerneigener und geleaster Sicherheitseinrichtungen stiegen im Vorjahresvergleich um rund 46 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 13 %. Treiber dieses Zuwachses waren drei unternehmenseigene Einrichtungen, die im Rahmen neuer ICE-Verträge in Betrieb genommen wurden; dem standen teilweise Umsatzverluste infolge des Verkaufs der Einrichtung in Lawton (Oklahoma) gegenüber.

Die Erlöse aus reinen Managementverträgen erhöhten sich um rund 31 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 19 %, vor allem dank des Joint Ventures zur Verwaltung der North Florida Detention Facility sowie höherer Umsätze aus Transportdienstleistungen.

Die aktiven ICE-Einrichtungen von GEO zählten zuletzt eine Belegung von rund 24.000 Personen, was etwa einem Drittel der vom Management bezifferten landesweiten ICE-Gesamtbelegung von rund 73.000 Personen entspricht. Nach den geplanten Inbetriebnahmen rechnet GEO damit, rund 33.000 vertraglich gebundene ICE-Plätze an 29 Standorten zu verwalten.

Das Unternehmen stellte drei größere ICE-Projekte vor, die für 2027 geplant sind:

• Die Einrichtung Bighorn mit 1.188 Plätzen soll ab dem ersten Quartal 2027 im ersten Betriebsjahr voraussichtlich einen Jahresumsatz von rund 85 Millionen US-Dollar generieren.
• Die Einrichtung Rivers mit 1.320 Plätzen soll ab dem ersten Quartal 2027 im ersten Betriebsjahr voraussichtlich rund 80 Millionen US-Dollar an Jahresumsatz beisteuern.
• Der Big-Spring-Komplex mit 2.329 Plätzen soll ab dem zweiten Quartal 2027 im ersten Betriebsjahr voraussichtlich einen Jahresumsatz von rund 200 Millionen US-Dollar erwirtschaften.

Die ICE wird die für die Reaktivierung dieser Einrichtungen erforderlichen Investitionsausgaben erstatten und Mittel für Anlaufkosten bereitstellen. Nach der Normalisierung im Jahr 2027 dürften die drei Projekte zusammen zudem voraussichtlich rund 28 Millionen US-Dollar an jährlichen Erlösen aus Transportdienstleistungen erzielen.

In vier konzerneigenen Einrichtungen verfügt GEO über rund 2.900 ungenutzte Plätze. Das Management schätzte, dass eine Vollauslastung zusätzliche Gesamterlöse von etwa 170 Millionen US-Dollar einbringen könnte. Die bestehenden aktiven Einrichtungen verzeichneten zum Quartalsende eine Auslastung von 93 %, was noch vor Einbeziehung der neuen Einrichtungen eine rechnerische Auslastungsreserve von 7 % bedeutet.

Die Umsätze aus elektronischer Überwachung und Betreuung legten im Jahresvergleich um rund 1,6 % zu und kehrten damit einen mehrjährigen Abwärtstrend um. Die Gesamtzahl der Teilnehmenden am Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) erreichte rund 190.000 Personen, nach 184.000 vor drei Monaten. Die Zahl der Teilnehmenden mit GPS-Fußfesseln kletterte von 17.000 Anfang 2025 auf etwa 58.000, während rund 121.000 Personen Fallmanagement-Leistungen in Anspruch nahmen. Verträge zur Personenermittlung (Skip Tracing) steuerten im dritten Quartal rund 3 Millionen US-Dollar zum Umsatz bei.

Ausblick der Unternehmensführung

Die Prognose für den GAAP-Nettogewinn enthält den Buchgewinn aus dem Verkauf des Adelanto-Komplexes. Im Mittelwert der Spanne würde der bereinigte Jahresüberschuss für das Gesamtjahr gegenüber 2025 um 56 % steigen, während das bereinigte EBITDA laut Unternehmensangaben um 23 % zulegen würde.

GEO rechnet für das Gesamtjahr 2026 mit nicht erstatteten Investitionsausgaben in Höhe von 140 bis 150 Millionen US-Dollar. Für 2027 geht das Management davon aus, dass die regulären nicht erstatteten Investitionsausgaben auf rund 100 Millionen US-Dollar zurückgehen.

Das Management identifizierte mehrere potenzielle Wachstumstreiber für 2027, darunter die Inbetriebnahme der vier neuen ICE-Einrichtungen, eine höhere Auslastung der bestehenden Einrichtungen, die mögliche Reaktivierung ungenutzter Kapazitäten, die für den 1. Juli 2027 geplante Übernahme der Verträge für die Einrichtungen Graceville und Bay in Florida, weitere Verbesserungen beim ISAP-Mix, Zuwächse bei den Transporten sowie eine verstärkte Inanspruchnahme von Personenermittlungsdiensten.

Bilanz und Kapitalallokation

Nach dem Adelanto-Verkauf und der Schuldentilgung bestehen die ausstehenden Unternehmensverbindlichkeiten von GEO aus vorrangigen unbesicherten Anleihen im Volumen von 625 Millionen US-Dollar mit Fälligkeit 2031. Die verfügbare Liquidität liegt bei rund 600 Millionen US-Dollar, einschließlich Barmitteln und Ziehungsmöglichkeiten aus revolvierenden Kreditlinien, während der Nettoverschuldungsgrad rund das 1-Fache des bereinigten EBITDA beträgt.

Die Unternehmensführung beabsichtigt, den Nettoverschuldungsgrad auf oder unter diesem Niveau zu halten. Wie GEO mitteilte, kann das Unternehmen unbegrenzt beschränkte Zahlungen (Restricted Payments) wie Aktienrückkäufe vornehmen, solange bestimmte Verschuldungsgrenzen nicht überschritten werden. Zudem prüft das Unternehmen Vereinbarungen über beschleunigte Aktienrückkäufe.

Risiken und wichtige Beobachtungspunkte

• GEO verhandelt über den potenziellen Verkauf von bis zu vier weiteren Einrichtungen an die ICE; verbindliche Vereinbarungen wurden bislang jedoch nicht getroffen. Das Management warnte davor, dass Zeitpläne der öffentlichen Hand schwer abzuschätzen seien und die Transaktionen möglicherweise nicht zustande kämen.
• GEO verlangt im Rahmen potenzieller Immobilienverkäufe den Weiterbestand langfristiger Verträge über Betreuungs- und Unterstützungsdienstleistungen. Nach Angaben des Managements erhöht diese Anforderung die Komplexität und könnte die Verhandlungen in die Länge ziehen.
• Die ISAP-Teilnehmerzahlen nahmen lediglich moderat zu, obgleich die Verschiebung hin zu höherpreisigen Fußfesseln und Fallmanagement-Dienstleistungen den Erlösmix verbesserte.
• Die eigentumsbezogene Preisgestaltung für die Betriebsvereinbarung in Adelanto ist weiterhin Gegenstand von Verhandlungen. Das Management geht davon aus, dass eine Aufstockung von Personal und Dienstleistungen etwaige Kürzungen bei den eigentumsbezogenen Mitteln kompensieren wird.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Fragerunde für Analysten

Zum Thema Kapazitäten erklärte das Management, dass die Belegungsquote von 93 % im Bestandsportfolio ein verbleibendes Auslastungspotenzial von 7 % bedeute. Zudem erwartet GEO, dass an zwei neuen Standorten bis zum 1. Januar rund 2.500 Plätze in Betrieb genommen werden, gefolgt von weiteren etwa 2.300 Plätzen an zwei Einrichtungen bis zum 1. März.

Zum Thema ISAP erklärte das Management, dass sich das Programm vor zwei Jahren nicht wie erhofft entwickelt habe, da die Regierung der Ausweitung von Hafteinrichtungen Priorität eingeräumt habe. GEO rechnet dennoch mit einem Ausbau des Programms, sobald die Haftkapazitäten bereitgestellt sind – insbesondere durch die Verlagerung hin zu Fußfesseln und einer intensiveren Fallbetreuung.

Bezüglich potenzieller Erlöse aus Vermögensverkäufen teilte das Management mit, dass nennenswerte Einnahmen sowohl für den Schuldenabbau als auch für Ausschüttungen an die Aktionäre in Betracht gezogen würden. GEO werde beschleunigte Aktienrückkaufprogramme prüfen, sollten weitere Transaktionen abgeschlossen werden.

Das Management bestätigte zudem, dass das jährliche Umsatzplus von rund 60 Millionen US-Dollar durch die Personalaufstockung in Adelanto in der Prognose für 2026 berücksichtigt ist. Der für das vierte Quartal erwartete Anstieg der Investitionsausgaben steht primär im Zusammenhang mit der Inbetriebnahme von ICE-Einrichtungen sowie mit einigen Projekten, die aus früheren Monaten des Jahres verschoben wurden.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Pablo Páez, Executive Vice President of Corporate Relations. Please go ahead.

Pablo Paez

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's discussion of The GEO Group's third quarter 2026 earnings results. With us today are George Zoley, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder, and Brian Evans, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

This afternoon, we will discuss our third quarter results as well as our outlook. We will conclude the call with a question-and-answer session. This conference call is also being webcast live on our investor website at investors.geogroup.com. Today, we will discuss non-GAAP basis information. A reconciliation from non-GAAP basis information to GAAP basis results is included in the press release and the supplemental disclosure we issued this morning.

Additionally, much of the information we will discuss today, including the answers we give in response to your questions, may include forward-looking statements regarding our beliefs and current expectations with respect to various matters. These forward-looking statements are intended to fall within the safe harbor provisions of the securities laws. Our actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including the Form 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K reports. With that, please allow me to turn this call over to our Chairman, CEO, and Founder, George Zoley. George?

George Zoley

Thank you, Pablo, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our diversified business units have continued to deliver strong financial and operational performance through 2026, and our third quarter 2026 results marked a record-breaking quarter for GEO. Compared to the same period in 2025, our third quarter 2026 revenues increased 12% to approximately $761.1 million, while our third quarter 2026 net income attributable to GEO operations was approximately $49.2 million. Compared to the same period in 2025, our third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to approximately $145.3 million, and our adjusted net income increased 48% to approximately $51.8 million. These results represent the highest level of quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA ever reported in our company's history. Even better-than-expected performance in 2026 has been driven by the significant revenue growth from the new contracts that we entered into throughout 2025. They included the activation of 4 facilities to house ICE detainees, totaling 6,000 beds, valued at approximately $280 million in annual revenues.

So far in 2026, we have had an even more successful year for the new expanded services, entering into new contracts for the activation of 4 additional facilities to house ICE detainees, totaling approximately 4,800 beds. These contracts, along with the expanded scope of services at existing facilities, created an overall value of approximately $500 million in incremental annual revenues. First, we entered into a 5-year support services contract with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 1,188-bed Bighorn facility in Hudson, Colorado, while also entering into a lease agreement with the facility owner. The Bighorn support services contract is expected to generate approximately $85 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, starting in the first quarter of 2027.

We then entered into a 5-year support services contract with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center in the GEO-owned 1,320-bed Rivers facility in Winton, North Carolina. The Rivers support services contract is expected to generate approximately $80 million in annual revenues in the first full year of operations, also starting in the first quarter of 2027. More recently, we announced earlier this week the city of Big Spring in Texas has entered into a 10-year intergovernmental service agreement with ICE for the activation of a federal immigration processing center at the 2,329-bed Big Spring Complex comprised of a 1,404-bed Flightline facility and the 925-bed Cedar Hill facility.

GEO will provide support services at the Big Spring Complex, which is expected to generate approximately $200 million in annual revenues for GEO in the first full year of operations, starting in the second quarter of 2027. Under all 3 of these contracts, ICE will reimburse GEO for the capital expenditures needed to reactivate these 4 facilities, as well as providing funding for startup expenses during the activation period. Following the activation of these 4 facilities, our total ICE beds under contract will increase to approximately 33,000 beds at 29 facilities. The current census across our active ICE facilities is approximately 24,000, representing approximately one-third of the current national ICE population of approximately 73,000.

Over the past 2 quarters, we have also entered into new or modified contracts for the continued provision of support services at existing ICE processing centers. First, during the third quarter, we entered into a contract modification to increase staffing levels at the 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center to support the increase in the scope of services at the facility, adding $60 million in incremental annual revenues. More recently, last week, we announced that we have entered into a new 10-year management contract with expanded support services at incremental annual revenue value of $50 million at the GEO-owned 1,635-bed Northwest ICE Processing Center in Tacoma, Washington.

The new 10-year contract is expected to generate approximately $140 million in total annual revenues for GEO and continue through October 27, 2036, making it the first contract we have entered into with ICE with a full base term of 10 years. This new contract was awarded under an ongoing procurement that involves 3 other GEO-owned facilities: the Aurora facility, the Moshannon Valley facility, and Broward ICE Processing Center, which are also expected to receive new 10-year contract awards.

ICE enforcement initiatives nationwide are supported by significant funding that has already been approved by the United States Congress. ICE was allocated $45 billion for detention under the One Big Beautiful Bill, which is available through September 30, 2029. We believe that less than $10 billion of the $45 billion has been spent so far. Under the Secure America Act, ICE also received $38.5 billion in baseline appropriations funding, as well as an additional $30 billion for other priorities under the One Big Beautiful Bill, all of which is also available through September 30. As ICE continues to pursue these enforcement initiatives, we expect GEO to continue to be part of the solution as a 40-year partner to the agency.

Following our recent contract announcements, we now have approximately 2,900 idle beds that remain available at 4 company-owned facilities, which are well-suited for the needs of the federal government. At full capacity, these 2,900 idle beds could generate approximately $170 million in combined incremental revenues. Additionally, we have expansion capacity of several thousands of beds at existing GEO-managed ICE facilities. Our third quarter 2026 results also reflect a significant expansion in our secure transportation services on behalf of ICE and the U.S. Marshals Service as a result of new or amended contracts we entered into in 2025. The support services that we provide under ICE air transportation subcontracts have continued to steadily grow, driven by the increase in the number of removal flights. Additionally, our new Bighorn, Rivers, and Big Spring contracts with ICE are expected to generate approximately $28 million in combined additional annual transportation services revenues once normalized in 2027.

Importantly, during the third quarter of 2026, our ISAP contract continued to experience a steady technology shift to more intensive and higher-priced monitoring devices, such as ankle monitors. ISAP is the only ICE program currently in place to provide electronic monitoring and case management services for individuals on the non-detained docket. The program relies on several forms of monitoring, including GPS ankle bracelets or wrist-worn devices that provide real-time tracking, as well as the SmartLink phone app, which relies on facial recognition, voice ID, and GPS to confirm a person's location during the predetermined check-in.

The current overall ISAP count is approximately 190,000 participants, up from 184,000 participants 3 months ago. The number of ISAP participants on GPS ankle monitors has increased to approximately 58,000 currently from 17,000 early in 2025. We also continue to experience a steady increase in the number of ISAP participants assigned to case management services, which involves staff interaction and monitoring for approximately 121,000 individuals currently. As a result of these trends, revenue and net operating income for our electronic monitoring and supervision services segment increased during the third quarter of 2026 compared to the same period a year ago, reversing a multi-year trend of revenue and net operating income declines. Additionally, during the third quarter of 2026, we generated revenues of approximately $3 million from our skip tracing contracts.

Moving to our outlook, we have increased our net income and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 to reflect the strength of our results in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our fourth quarter 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance exceeds our third quarter 2026 results, positioning GEO to set another record-breaking quarter. Looking forward to 2027, there are several sources of future upside compared to our 2026 guidance. They include the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities at Bighorn, Rivers, and the Big Spring Complex; additional growth in our secure services segment from the reactivation of additional idle facilities and/or higher overall populations across our active facilities; the expected transition of our previously announced managed-only contracts for the 1,884-bed Graceville facility and the 985-bed Bay facility in the state of Florida, which are expected to occur on July 1, 2027; additional volume increases and/or accelerated technology service mix in our ISAP contract; additional growth in our secure transportation services business; and additional revenue from higher utilization of our skip tracing contracts.

Before I turn the call over to our CFO, Shayn March, for a more detailed review of our third quarter results and guidance, I'd like to provide you with an update regarding the plan by ICE and DHS to purchase existing privately-owned turnkey ICE processing centers. As we announced last month, we completed the sale of our 1,280-bed Adelanto West ICE Processing Center, 660-bed Adelanto East ICE Processing Center, and our 704-bed Desert View Annex to DHS for an aggregate gross sales price of $950 million, with net proceeds after taxes and transaction fees and expenses of approximately $705 million. We expect to continue providing support services at the Adelanto Complex under our existing contract with ICE, which has a full effective term through December 19, 2034.

We used proceeds from the sales for the redemption of our $650 million 2029 senior secured notes, and we also entered into an amended and restated credit agreement extending the maturity of our $550 million revolving credit facility to July 2031, while also increasing our restricted payment capacity, including share repurchases. Following the redemption of the 2029 senior secured notes, our total outstanding corporate debt consists of our 2031 senior unsecured notes totaling $625 million. As we previously announced, our board of directors has increased our share repurchase authorization, which is effective through December 31, 2029, by $750 million to $1.25 billion. Based on our current leverage and so long as we remain below specified leverage levels, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, under both the amended credit facility agreement and the senior unsecured note indenture.

Given the intrinsic value of our assets, including 48,000 owned beds, our strong financial performance in providing diversified secured support services, and our expected future growth, we believe that our stock continues to be significantly undervalued and offers a very attractive investment opportunity. Therefore, in addition to further debt reduction and other general corporate purposes, we intend to allocate a substantial portion of future facility sales proceeds and recurring free cash flow toward our expanded share repurchase authorization, which may include structured share repurchases on an accelerated basis.

Following the recently completed asset sales, ICE now uses approximately 34 existing detention sites nationwide that are owned and operated by private contractors. CoreCivic now owns and operates approximately 12 ICE detention facilities, while GEO owns and operates 20 ICE detention facilities. In addition to the facility sales we completed last month, we remain engaged in an active process for the sale of multiple other company-owned facilities to ICE, subject to mutual agreement on price and GEO's continued management of those facilities under long-term support services contracts. We believe we have 2 types of assets: the buildings and the businesses of providing support services. We are pursuing additional potential sales of the buildings, but we want to retain the business of providing support services.

We continue to consider ourselves primarily a support services operator and will place particular importance on our ability to continue our support services at any additional facility sold to ICE. Specifically, we believe that our current active negotiations could result in additional sales before the end of 2026 for up to 4 additional facilities. We believe that future sales are likely to have similar valuations to the transactions that have already been completed by ICE, with standard adjustments with respect to geography, facility size, and age. And it is possible that the number of facilities targeted for acquisition by ICE could continue to grow in the future.

At this time, there is no definitive agreement in place and no precise timeline for the closing of any additional transactions, and GEO can provide no assurance that any additional transactions will, in fact, occur. While the exact timing of government actions is always difficult to estimate, we remain focused on pursuing new growth opportunities and allocating capital to enhance long-term value for our shareholders. At this time, I will turn the call over to Shayn to review our quarterly results and increased guidance.

Shayn March

Thank you, George. Good afternoon, everyone. The third quarter of 2026 set all-time highs for GEO in quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA, and also an all-time high in quarterly adjusted net income under a non-REIT corporate structure. Revenues for the third quarter of 2026 increased to approximately $761.1 million, up from approximately $682.3 million for the prior year's third quarter, reflecting a 12% increase. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported net income attributable to GEO operations of approximately $49.2 million, or $0.37 per diluted share. This compares to net income attributable to GEO operations of approximately $173.9 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025, which included the $228 million gain on the sale of the Lawton, Oklahoma facility. Adjusting for unusual and non-recurring items, third quarter 2026 adjusted net income increased to approximately $51.8 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, from approximately $35 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, in the prior year's third quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 increased to approximately $145.3 million, up from approximately $120.1 million in the prior year's third quarter, reflecting a 21% increase.

Driving this historical quarterly performance, our owned and leased secured services revenues increased by approximately $46 million, or 13%, compared to the prior year's third quarter. This increase was driven by the activation of 3 company-owned facilities under new contracts with ICE, which was partly offset by revenue lost from the sale of the Lawton, Oklahoma facility. Quarterly revenues for our managed-only contracts increased by approximately $31 million, or 19%, from the prior year's third quarter. This increase was primarily driven by the joint venture agreement for the management of the North Florida Detention Facility, as well as certain transportation revenue increases that are reported in this segment. Quarterly revenues for our owned and leased reentry services increased by approximately $3.5 million, partly offset by a $3 million decline in non-residential services revenues compared to the prior year's third quarter. Finally, third quarter 2026 revenues for our electronic monitoring and supervision services increased by approximately 1.6% compared to the third quarter of 2025, reversing a multi-year trend of quarterly revenue declines for this important segment and demonstrating the strength of the favorable technology and case management mix shift in our ISAP contract, which more than offset some price reductions previously reported.

Turning to expenses, during the third quarter of 2026, our operating expenses increased by approximately 8.5% as a result of the activation of our ICE facility contracts and increased occupancy compared to the prior year's third quarter. The general and administrative expenses for the third quarter of 2026 increased modestly to approximately 9.5% of revenue from approximately 9.1% of the prior year's third quarter revenue, the result of additional business development expenses. Our third quarter 2026 net interest expense remained steady at approximately $36 million compared to the prior year's third quarter. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately 27%.

Moving to our outlook, we have updated our guidance for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2026. In the fourth quarter of 2026, we've increased our GAAP net income guidance to a range of $591 million to $595.5 million, which includes the gain on the sale of the Adelanto, California ICE complex. We've also increased fourth quarter 2026 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $46 million to $51 million, or a range of $0.35 to $0.39 per diluted share, on quarterly revenue of $777 million to $827 million. We have increased our fourth quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $149 million to $154 million. If this guidance is achieved, the fourth quarter for 2026 would set another record-breaking quarter for GEO, while also positioning our company for a strong 2027 outlook.

For the full year 2026, we've increased GAAP net income guidance to a range of $726.3 million to $730.5 million, which includes the gain on sale of the Adelanto, California ICE complex in the fourth quarter of 2026. We have also increased full year 2026 adjusted net income guidance to a range of $185 million to $190 million, or a range of $1.40 to $1.44 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.975 billion to $3.025 billion, and based on an effective tax rate of approximately 28% inclusive of known discrete items. This represents a 56% increase over 2025 adjusted net income at the midpoint of $187.5 million. We have increased our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $568 million to $573 million, representing a 23% increase at the midpoint of $570.5 million. We expect total unreimbursed capital expenditures for the full year 2026 to be between $140 million and $150 million, and expect normal unreimbursed CapEx to decline to approximately $100 million in 2027.

Moving to our balance sheet, following the sale of the Adelanto Complex in October, we completed the redemption of our $650 million senior secured notes and executed an amendment to our $550 million revolving credit facility, extending its maturity and increasing our restricted payments capacity, including share repurchases. Our total outstanding corporate debt consists of our 2031 senior unsecured notes totaling $625 million. Our available liquidity is approximately $600 million, including cash on hand and revolver availability. Net of cash, our current leverage is approximately 1x adjusted EBITDA. And based on our current outlook, we have reset our capital strategy to remain at or below this net leverage level going forward.

Based on our current leverage, and so long as we remain below specified leverage levels, GEO is permitted to make unlimited restricted payments, including share repurchases, under both the amended credit facility agreement and the senior unsecured note indenture. Given what I believe is a significant discount on our stock valuation, our board of directors, as previously reported, increased our share repurchase authorization, which is effective through December 31, 2029, by $750 million to $1.25 billion. We plan to remain active under this program regardless of future asset sales. At this time, I will turn the call back to George.

George Zoley

Thank you, Shayn. To recap, our third quarter of 2026 was a historic quarter for our company, setting new all-time highs for GEO for quarterly revenues and adjusted EBITDA. And based on our increased guidance, we expect the fourth quarter of 2026 to be another record-setting quarter. This historic financial performance in 2026 will position GEO for a very strong outlook in 2027, with several sources of potential further upside heading into next year, including: the expected activation of 4 new ICE facilities at Bighorn, Rivers, and the Big Spring Complex; additional growth in our secure services segment from the reactivation of additional idle facilities and overall higher populations across our active facilities; the expected transition of our previously announced managed-only contracts for the 1,884-bed Graceville facility and the 985-bed Bay facility in the state of Florida, which are expected to transition on July 1, 2027; additional volume increases and/or accelerated technology and service mix in our ISAP contract; additional growth in our secure transportation services business; and additional revenue from higher utilization of our skip tracing contracts.

In addition to our strong financial performance and significant expected future growth, we believe that additional asset sales could be completed before the end of 2026. Having already completed the sale of the Adelanto Complex for $950 million, we believe it's possible that up to 4 additional facilities owned by GEO could be sold in the fourth quarter of 2026. These potential asset sales represent another significant liquidity and shareholder value creation event for our company.

Given the intrinsic value of our assets, including 48,000 owned beds, our strong financial performance in providing diversified secure support services, and our expected future growth, we believe that our stock continues to be significantly undervalued and share repurchases are therefore a paramount capital allocation priority for our company. That completes our remarks and we would be glad to take any questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Joe Gomes with Noble Capital. Please go ahead.

Fragen und Antworten

Joseph Gomes

Good afternoon.

George Zoley

Good afternoon.

Joseph Gomes

So I wanted to start out, George, looking at 93% occupancy at the end of the quarter, how much additional utilization upside remains in your view?

George Zoley

At existing facilities, mathematically, it would be 7%. But we are now transitioning 4 new facilities, as I discussed, 2 of which will open by January 1, representing about 2,500 beds, and 2 more facilities by March 1, representing about 2,300 beds. Those are major increases in our capacity.

Joseph Gomes

Okay, thanks for that. Maybe you could talk a little bit more about the ISAP contract. Obviously, it hasn't gone as the government had said, looking at numbers significantly higher than where we are today. I think there's about 1 year left on that contract. Obviously, you guys have won that contract on multiple occasions, but I just want to get your view and your thoughts on ISAP, and is ICE going to eventually start to use that contract, and your expectations when it comes up for renewal?

George Zoley

Okay. Well, remember the ISAP contract is under a program called Alternatives to Detention. The focus has obviously been under this administration to increase detention capacity, and we've participated in that initiative, increasing our contracted bed space at this point to 33,000 beds, which is almost the entirety of the number of beds that was under the Biden administration. So it's been very significant.

The ISAP contract didn't develop as we expected 2 years ago, but we're very pleased that the technology mix has shifted towards these more intensive electronic devices, including increasing case management. So we do think that contract will continue to grow and expand as the detention capacity is achieved by this administration in this country. So once that is achieved, we think ISAP will continue to grow as it has, particularly with regard to the technology mix.

Joseph Gomes

Yes, great. Thanks for that. I'll pass it on.

Operator

The next question comes from Greg Gibas with Northland Securities. Please go ahead.

Gregory Gibas

Good afternoon, George and Shayn. Wondering how you're thinking about ICE's timeframe for additional facility sales if they were to occur, and maybe if you could discuss kind of how you expect to split incremental proceeds for debt paydown versus repurchases, and would you consider an ASR like we've seen from your public peer?

George Zoley

Well, I'll take the first part of that question. We do think there is a reasonable chance of multiple sales occurring before the end of this year involving our company. And it is a complicated process because the facilities are located in different states, different designs, different cost of replacement construction for each facility, and we've required that the facility's contracts continue for a significant period of time, which further complicates and lengthens the process. But we are reasonably optimistic, as I say, that 1 or multiple facilities could be purchased by ICE from our company before the end of this quarter. With regard to the use of proceeds, I'll defer to Shayn March.

Shayn March

Regarding proceed application, we really don't have that much debt left. So it's the $625 million of unsecured notes, so any significant asset sale we would definitely use to reduce our indebtedness, and we would absolutely consider any type of return of capital back to shareholders, including accelerated type structure transactions. So we're evaluating all the different options and we'll act accordingly once those sales were to occur.

Gregory Gibas

Got it. That's very helpful. And to follow up on the previous question as it relates to ISAP, and I know ICE is very detention-focused, but wondering if you could touch on how populations have trended with respect to the ISAP contract.

George Zoley

Well, the population has slightly trended up. It's gone from, I think, 185,000 to approximately 190,000. But importantly, within that mix are the changes, as I've been discussing, in the electronic devices that are used. They've gone to the more costly and more secure ankle monitors rather than phones. And the other part is the case management, which involves our staff being involved on an interactive basis with people in the program to make sure we know who they are, where they are, and that they're going to be attending their meetings on site with our company, as well as the court hearings that will adjudicate their cases.

Gregory Gibas

Got it. Thanks very much. I'll pass it on.

Operator

The next question comes from Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti. Please go ahead.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Great. Good afternoon. I just wanted to start off on the new Adelanto management contract. I think you mentioned there was a contract modification there that added roughly $60 million in annual revenue. I believe it was due to staffing level increases. Is that baked into the guidance at this point for this year?

Shayn March

Yes, sir. Yep. That is baked in for the rest of this year.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And can you remind us of the contract economics there and maybe talk about the margin profile of that management contract and compare it to the margin profile of how it looked under ownership?

George Zoley

Well, it was an owned facility. It's now a leased facility. Normally, you would expect that there would be a price reduction on the ownership cost issues that are still to be negotiated. They haven't occurred yet. Concurrently, we've had, as the process of renegotiation of that facility, an expanded scope of services that was desired by ICE to add several more staff for several more purposes. And that will offset any decrease in the ownership funding of the facility.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Understood. I appreciate the detail. Last question. It looks like there's a large implied step-up for capital expenditures for Q4 of this year. Is it safe to assume that's mostly reactivation spending that will be reimbursed by ICE?

Shayn March

Yes, that's correct. It's that plus, obviously, we've pushed some CapEx scheduled for earlier in the year to the fourth quarter. So it's a combination of both, but predominantly going to be tied to activations of the ICE facilities.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Understood. That's all from me, and congrats on a good quarter.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to George Zoley, Chairman, CEO, and Founder of The GEO Group, for any closing remarks.

George Zoley

Okay, thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to our next call.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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