Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP) Telefonkonferenz zu den Q3-Ergebnissen 2026: Rekordproduktion und Q4-Ausblick

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die durchschnittliche Produktion im dritten Quartal 2026 stieg im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 7 % auf den Rekordwert von 27.565 BOE pro Tag, einschließlich eines Beitrags von 41 Tagen aus erworbenen Vermögenswerten.
• Die Erlöse aus Öl, Erdgas und NGL beliefen sich auf insgesamt 96,9 Millionen US-Dollar, während das konsolidierte bereinigte EBITDA 80,4 Millionen US-Dollar erreichte.
• Kimbell kündigte eine vierteljährliche Ausschüttung von 0,45 US-Dollar je Stammanteil an, was 75 % des für Ausschüttungen verfügbaren Cashflows entspricht. Das Management schätzte, dass rund 76 % als steuerneutrale Kapitalrückzahlung behandelt werden.
• Die Aktivität auf den Flächen von Kimbell blieb mit 93 aktiven Bohranlagen – rund 16 % aller US-amerikanischen Onshore-Bohranlagen zum Quartalsende – und einer Rekordzahl an absehbaren Bohrungen weiterhin hoch.
• Das Unternehmen hat seit Juni 2026 Übernahmen im Umfang von 367 Millionen US-Dollar abgeschlossen. Laut Management soll jede Transaktion die Produktion steigern und wertsteigernd für den für Ausschüttungen verfügbaren Cashflow je Anteil sein.
• Kimbell bestätigte seine Finanz- und Betriebsprognose für das vierte Quartal 2026. Das Management erwartet einen deutlich höheren Cashflow im vierten Quartal, gestützt durch höhere Ölpreise und die Tatsache, dass rund 84 % der geschätzten Ölproduktion des vierten Quartals ungesichert sind.

Wichtige Finanzkennzahlen

Kimbell plant, die verbleibenden 25 % des für Ausschüttungen verfügbaren Cashflows zur Rückführung von Inanspruchnahmen der revolvierenden Fazilität zu verwenden. Laut Management entspricht die Ausschüttung von 0,45 US-Dollar einer annualisierten, steuerbegünstigten Rendite von rund 11 %.

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Kimbells operative Präsenz baute sich im Quartalsverlauf weiter aus. Die Zahl der Bohranlagen stieg um zwei auf 93, während das Unternehmen den höchsten Stand an absehbaren Bohrungen verzeichnete. Laut Management übertraf dieser Bestand die Zahl der zur Produktionserhaltung nötigen Bohrungen, was die Zuversicht hinsichtlich einer stabilen Produktion bis zum Jahresende und bis ins Jahr 2027 stützt.

Das Permian-Becken bleibt nach Umsatz, Förderung, Zahl der Bohranlagen, gebohrten, aber unfertigen Bohrungen (DUCs) und Genehmigungen Kimbells größtes Fördergebiet. Das Management rechnet damit, dass die Aktivität in ölgewichteten Becken, insbesondere im Permian, angesichts der aktuellen Öl-Terminkurve weiterhin stark bleiben wird.

Auch die Aktivitäten bei den Pachtboni konzentrierten sich in erster Linie auf das Permian-Becken. Das Management erklärte, dass ein höheres Ölpreisumfeld die Verpachtungsaktivitäten im Allgemeinen stütze, wenngleich die vierteljährlichen Erlöse aus Pachtboni erheblich schwanken können.

Nach Quartalsende erhöhte Kimbell die Kreditbasis und die vereinbarten Kreditlinien im Rahmen seiner besicherten revolvierenden Kreditfazilität von 660 Millionen auf 750 Millionen US-Dollar. Zudem kündigte das Unternehmen die Rückzahlung von 50 % seiner verbliebenen kumulativen wandelbaren Vorzugsanteile der Serie A an, deren Abschluss für den 16. November 2026 erwartet wird.

Management-Prognose

Kimbell bestätigte die zuvor am 24. August 2026 veröffentlichten Prognosespannen für die Finanz- und Betriebsdaten des vierten Quartals 2026.

Das Management erwartet einen deutlichen Anstieg des Cashflows im vierten Quartal im Vergleich zum Vorquartal und begründet dies mit höheren Ölpreisen sowie der Tatsache, dass rund 84 % der geschätzten Ölproduktion im vierten Quartal ungesichert sind. Zudem geht das Unternehmen davon aus, dass rege Bohraktivitäten, insbesondere im Permian-Becken, und der Rekordbestand an absehbaren Bohrungen die weitere Entwicklung bis ins Jahr 2027 unterstützen werden.

Während der Telefonkonferenz gab das Management keine formelle Prognose für 2027 ab. Es erklärte jedoch, dass eine anhaltende Aktivität auf den Bestandsflächen sowie die Erschließung weiterer Horizonte im Permian-Becken einen zuversichtlicheren Ausblick für 2027 oder 2028 unterstützen könnten.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Da rund 84 % der geschätzten Ölförderung im vierten Quartal ungesichert sind, unterliegt der Cashflow einem erheblichen Risiko durch Ölpreisänderungen.
• Das Management führte aus, dass die Erlöse aus Pachtboni in Wellen anfallen und von minimalen Beträgen bis hin zu Werten reichen können, die deutlich über den Erwartungen liegen.
• Dem Unternehmen zufolge dauert es in der Regel sechs bis 18 Monate, bis genehmigte Bohrungen in Betrieb genommen werden, was den zeitlichen Ablauf der Erschließung mit Unsicherheit behaftet.
• Kimbell verfolgt weiterhin Übernahmemöglichkeiten und hält zugleich an der Bedingung fest, dass Transaktionen unmittelbar cashflow-steigernd sein müssen.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Fragerunde der Analysten

Das Management bekräftigte, dass Kimbell an seiner bestehenden Akquisitionsdisziplin festhalten wolle, anstatt im Voraus für spekulatives langfristiges Entwicklungspotenzial zu zahlen. Zwar könne das Unternehmen tiefer liegenden Horizonten einen höheren Wert beimessen, wenn laufende oder bestehende Erschließungen die Bewertungsannahmen stützen, eine unmittelbare Cashflow-Steigerung bleibe jedoch vorrangig.

Das Unternehmen verwies auf zehn neue Genehmigungen in Loving County im Zusammenhang mit der früheren LongPoint-Übernahme. Diese Bohrungen waren in der ursprünglichen Kalkulation nicht enthalten, und Kimbell hält daran eine Nettoerlösbeteiligung von fast 20 %. Das Management rechnet derzeit mit einer möglichen ersten Förderung im vierten Quartal 2027, wies jedoch darauf hin, dass die Zeitspanne von der Genehmigung bis zur Förderung in der Vergangenheit zwischen sechs und 18 Monaten lag.

Nach Schätzung des Managements verteilte sich der Anstieg bei den DUCs und genehmigten Standorten im Vergleich zum Vorquartal etwa gleichmäßig auf jüngste Übernahmen und organische Aktivitäten auf Bestandsflächen. Die zehn Genehmigungen in Loving County wurden als wesentlicher Treiber dieses Zuwachses genannt.

Bei den Pachtboni empfahl das Management für Modellierungszwecke die Verwendung eines Durchschnitts der vorangegangenen vier Quartale, mit einer möglichen Tendenz zu höherer Aktivität. Das Interesse konzentriert sich weiterhin auf das Permian-Becken, einschließlich der Horizonte, die die Betreiber nun möglicherweise als wertvoller erachten als in früheren Perioden.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Kimbell Royalty Partners Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Zach Vaughan. Please go ahead.

Zach Vaughan

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Kimbell Royalty Partners conference call to review financial and operational results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. This call is also being webcast and can be accessed through the audio link on the Events and Presentations page of the IR section of kimbellrp.com. Information recorded on this call speaks only as of today, November 5, 2026. So please be advised that any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the date of any replay listening or transcript reading. I would also like to remind you that statements made in today's discussion that are not historical facts, including statements of expectations or future results or future financial performance, are considered forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We will be making forward-looking statements as part of today's call, which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control.

Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to today's earnings release for our disclosure on forward-looking statements. These factors and other risks and uncertainties are described in detail in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management will also refer to non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution. Reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures can be found at the end of today's earnings release. Kimbell assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the call over to Bob Ravnaas, Kimbell Royalty Partners Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Bob?

Davis Ravnaas

Thank you, Zach, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us this morning. With me today are several members of our senior management team, including Davis Ravnaas, our President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt Daly, our Chief Operating Officer; and Blaine Rheinsberger, our Controller. To start off, we are pleased to report another outstanding quarter for Kimbell, which included record daily production, an increase in our rig count by two rigs to 93 rigs actively drilling across our acreage, and record line-of-sight wells. It has also been a busy year with M&A, and we have now closed $367 million in acquisitions since June 2026. Each of these deals is expected to add meaningful production, be accretive to cash available for distribution per unit, and drive cash flow growth for years to come.

Production during the quarter grew by 7% quarter-over-quarter, resulting in oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues of approximately $97 million, while cash G&A per BOE remained well within our third quarter guidance range, highlighting the operating leverage of our platform as we continue to grow. Activity on our acreage remains robust, with our rig count representing approximately 16% of all U.S. land rigs at quarter end. In addition, a record number of line-of-sight wells gives us confidence in the resilience of our production as we close out the year and enter 2027. This strong third quarter performance allowed us to declare a Q3 2026 distribution of $0.45 per common unit as we continue to focus on returning value to unitholders. This distribution reflects an annualized tax-advantaged yield of approximately 11%.

Looking ahead, with these recently acquired assets now in our portfolio, we are excited about the earnings power of our extended asset base. With a recent surge in oil prices, not only for the rest of the year, but also for calendar year 2027, as reflected in the futures curve, we expect activity across the Lower 48 to remain strong. We expect to particularly see strong activity across our oil-weighted basins such as the Permian, which is our largest basin by revenue, production, rig count, DUCs, and permits. We also stand to significantly benefit from higher oil prices so far in the fourth quarter, and we expect a material increase in cash flow in the fourth quarter, given that approximately 84% of our estimated fourth quarter oil production is unhedged.

We believe the current futures curve and geopolitical landscape are conducive to incremental activity over time, and we look forward to both the prospects ahead of us and the long-term growth potential of our portfolio. We are bullish about the U.S. oil and natural gas royalty industry and our role as a consolidator in the sector. We continue to believe that the transition from private to public ownership of U.S. oil and natural gas royalties is in the early stages, and we are encouraged by the opportunities in front of us. We intend to continue pursuing accretive acquisitions as we strive to expand our industry-leading portfolio of assets. I'd like to thank all of our employees for their hard work and dedication in driving Kimbell forward and for their role in helping to generate long-term unitholder value. And now I'll turn the call over to Davis.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, Bob, and good morning, everyone. As Bob mentioned, this was another strong quarter for Kimbell. We set new records for daily production and line-of-sight wells, and activity on our acreage continued to grow. I'll start by reviewing our financial results for the quarter. Oil, natural gas, and NGL revenues totaled $96.9 million during the quarter, which included 41 days of contribution from the acquired production. Third quarter average daily production was 27,565 BOE per day, a new record for Kimbell. On the expense side, third quarter general and administrative expenses were $10.7 million, $6.3 million of which was cash G&A expense, or $2.48 per BOE, near the midpoint of our guidance range and a reflection of our continued operational discipline.

Total third quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $80.4 million. You will find a reconciliation of both consolidated adjusted EBITDA and cash available for distribution at the end of our news release. This morning, we announced a cash distribution of $0.45 per common unit for the third quarter. This represents a cash distribution payment to common unitholders that equates to 75% of cash available for distribution, and the remaining 25% will be used to pay down a portion of the outstanding borrowings under Kimbell's secured revolving credit facility. We estimate that approximately 76% of this distribution will be considered return of capital and not subject to dividend taxes, further enhancing the after-tax return to our common unitholders.

Moving now to our balance sheet and liquidity, at September 30, 2026, we had approximately $535.8 million in debt outstanding under our secured revolving credit facility, which represented a net debt to trailing 12 months consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately 1.5x. We also had approximately $124.2 million in undrawn capacity under that facility at quarter end. Subsequent to quarter end, on October 15, we increased the borrowing base and elected commitments on Kimbell's secured revolving credit facility from $660 million to $750 million in connection with our fall redetermination. This increase reflects the growth of our asset base and provides additional financial flexibility and liquidity as we continue to pursue accretive acquisitions.

In addition, on October 16, Kimbell gave notice to redeem 50% of the remaining Series A cumulative convertible preferred units. After closing, which is expected to occur on November 16, the face value of the remaining outstanding preferred units will be less than 3% of Kimbell's $2.8 billion enterprise value. This further simplifies our capital structure and lowers our cost of capital. We continue to maintain a conservative balance sheet and remain very comfortable with our strong financial position, ample liquidity, and the ongoing support of our bank partners. Today, we are also reaffirming our financial and operational guidance ranges for the fourth quarter of 2026.

As a reminder, our outlook for the fourth quarter was included in the guidance release that was issued on August 24, 2026. We are confident about the prospects for continued development through year-end and into 2027, given the number of rigs actively drilling on our acreage, especially in the Permian, higher oil prices, and our record number of line-of-sight wells exceeding our maintenance well count. In closing, we believe Kimbell is very well positioned for the long term. The U.S. oil and natural gas royalty sector is highly fragmented and estimated at over $850 billion in size, giving us a significant runway for continued consolidation. We believe that our capital-light model and diversified portfolio across the leading U.S. basins allows us to generate durable cash flow and deliver attractive returns to unitholders for years to come. With that, operator, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And our first question will come from Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Fragen und Antworten

Timothy Rezvan

Good morning, folks. Thank you for taking our questions.

Unknown Speaker

Good morning, Tim.

Timothy Rezvan

I want to start – we noticed one of your large peers who operates in the Permian has been acquiring royalties with more of a longer-term focus as the deeper Permian zones get delineated. Some of these transactions are really not accretive on day 1, but have sort of longer-term value. Is that something that Kimbell would sort of entertain as you think about M&A, or are you going to stick with your kind of day-one accretion blueprint?

Unknown Speaker

I think we want to stick to our existing methodology. Obviously the other ventures that are being developed are not lost on us. We have significant exposure to Woodford, Barnett, all of those different zones across all of the acquisitions that we've made. At the time that we made those acquisitions, for the most part, we gave very little, if any, credit to those zones just because they hadn't been developed at the time. It's just part of our conservative underwriting process. We will, however, give credit to them in cases where we see that there is ongoing development or existing development of those benches. So I'd say that it's important to us that every time we make an acquisition that it's immediately accretive to cash flow, but we are going to give increasing value to benches that are being developed at this time.

And I would add that that's been a huge boon to us as we look back at our acquisitions that we've made in the Permian. Again, we gave very little credit to those areas, and we expect to get tremendous benefits from those as they are developed in the future. We do believe in them, and we think it's a very viable play. So...

Timothy Rezvan

Okay, I appreciate the context there. Following up, you mentioned it in your prepared comments, the line-of-sight wells now trending well above your maintenance level. I know you're not going to give a 2027 guide out there, but is there a reason to think that you could have some kind of modest inflection from where you are today, given that stronger visibility on production to come?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, yes. I mean, that was something that was very positive that we noticed across our asset base this quarter. We had 10 new permits come in in Loving County for wells that were not included in our underwriting, that were allocated to the LongPoint acquisition we made years ago. And that kind of feeds in a little bit, Tim, to my previous comment, which is we're starting to see other benches, different spacing being applied to these areas. So we had 10 permits where we have almost a 20% NRI. Of those permits, we have those coming online in the fourth quarter of 2027. It might happen sooner, it might happen later. Our experience with permits is it's usually 6 to 18 months, so midpoint 12 months. If you run the math on that, you can run your own math, but the cash flow associated with 10 20% NRI wells is tremendous. Again, that's something that we didn't pay for at the time of underwriting, so a nice tailwind that we have on that front. If we continue to see activity like that on the acreage that you were talking about in your first question, that would probably indicate some sort of more bullish guidance for 2027 or 2028 going forward.

It's been a really nice development to see.

Timothy Rezvan

All right, that's great. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we will go next to Nick Armato with Texas Capital.

Unknown Speaker

Good morning, team. For my first one, lease bonuses were strong again this quarter. Can you help frame your outlook for them moving forward and discuss where you're currently seeing the most leasing activity across the portfolio? Are there any emerging areas where leasing activity suggests operator interest is increasing before it becomes visible on the drill bit?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, great question. You know, in these higher oil price environments, you tend to see greater lease bonuses. For modeling purposes, just to be conservative, I would take a trailing 4-quarter average and apply that going forward, but with maybe a bias towards more activity. It comes in waves. Some quarters we have de minimis lease bonus, some quarters it exceeds our expectations dramatically. I would say that it's mostly focused on the Permian. We're seeing some increased lease bonus activity in other areas as well, but the Permian continues to be the main driver. And again, it's folks that are looking to different benches in the Permian that they now believe have greater value than perhaps they did in the past and therefore justify increased interest in leasing activity. So I think that when you're dealing with a portfolio of assets like ours that are so diverse in nature with broad growth footprints, I would expect that we would continue to see significant leasing activity across those areas.

Unknown Speaker

Perfect. And then maybe just for my follow-up, you saw a meaningful sequential increase in the net DUC count and permit locations, which you've highlighted. Can you maybe just help characterize that increase and how much was attributed to some of the recent acquisitions versus organic increase in activity across the legacy acreage?

Unknown Speaker

It's a combination of both, obviously. I wouldn't have a split in front of me between the acquisition inventory that we've acquired versus organic. I would say the biggest driver of that are the 10 wells, the 10 permits that I mentioned just back on the last call. That was a meaningful boost, and that was on our legacy position, obviously, an acquisition that we made 3 or 4 years ago. So I would say it's evenly split between the two. If I had to handicap it, I'd say that most of that increase in inventory is probably attributable to... I'd say it's about 50/50 between acquisitions and legacy properties.

Unknown Speaker

Perfect. I appreciate it. I'll turn it back to the operator. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you.

Operator

And this now concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Davis Ravnaas

Thank you for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. This completes today's call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

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