Westlake (WLK) Earnings Call Q3 2026: PEM-Zuwächse kompensieren HIP-Schwäche

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Die Westlake Corporation meldete für das 3. Quartal 2026 einen Umsatz von 3,0 Milliarden US-Dollar und ein bereinigtes EBITDA von 408 Millionen US-Dollar, verglichen mit 313 Millionen US-Dollar im Vorjahr, aber unter den 679 Millionen US-Dollar im 2. Quartal 2026.
• Der dreisäulige Plan zur Profitabilitätssteigerung trug rund 200 Millionen US-Dollar zum EBITDA-Wachstum im Jahresvergleich bei. In den ersten neun Monaten erzielte er ein Plus von 500 Millionen US-Dollar und bleibt auf Kurs für eine Verbesserung von 600 Millionen US-Dollar im Gesamtjahr.
• Das EBITDA des Segments Performance and Essential Materials (PEM) stieg im Jahresvergleich um 125 Millionen US-Dollar auf 215 Millionen US-Dollar, da höhere Verkaufspreise und Kosteninitiativen die Marge von 5 % auf 11 % anheben konnten.
• Das EBITDA des Segments Housing and Infrastructure Products (HIP) sank im Jahresvergleich um 20 Millionen US-Dollar auf 195 Millionen US-Dollar. Eine geringere Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau, Kosteninflation und ein unvorteilhafter Produktmix reduzierten die Marge von 20 % auf 18 %.
• Der freie Cashflow erreichte 220 Millionen US-Dollar, basierend auf einem operativen Cashflow von 408 Millionen US-Dollar und Investitionen von 188 Millionen US-Dollar. Die liquiden Mittel und Finanzanlagen beliefen sich zum Quartalsende auf insgesamt 2,0 Milliarden US-Dollar.
• Für das 4. Quartal 2026 erwartet das Management im Segment HIP einen Umsatz von 900 Millionen bis 1,0 Milliarde US-Dollar sowie eine EBITDA-Marge von etwa 13 %, was die normale Saisonalität, eine schwächere Aktivität im Wohnungsbau und den anhaltenden Kostendruck widerspiegelt.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Westlake klammerte identifizierte Sonderposten in Höhe von 58 Millionen US-Dollar aus seinen bereinigten Ergebnissen aus. Dazu gehörten 51 Millionen US-Dollar im Zusammenhang mit der Schließung der PVC-Anlage in Köln, 5 Millionen US-Dollar im Zusammenhang mit anderen zuvor angekündigten Schließungen sowie 2 Millionen US-Dollar an zusätzlichen Restrukturierungskosten.

Geschäftliche und operative Entwicklung

Performance and Essential Materials

Der PEM-Umsatz stieg im Jahresvergleich um 8 %, unterstützt durch einen Anstieg der durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreise um 9 % und einen Zuwachs des vergleichbaren Volumens um 4 %. Werkschließungen und die Übernahme in Wilhelmshaven wirkten sich zusammen mit minus 5 % auf den Umsatz im Jahresvergleich aus.

Das PEM-EBITDA stieg von 90 Millionen US-Dollar im Vorjahr auf 215 Millionen US-Dollar. Höhere Polyethylen- und PVC-Harz-Preise, ein vorteilhafter geografischer Mix und Erträge aus dem Profitabilitätsplan trieben die Verbesserung voran.

Im Vergleich zum Vorquartal sank das PEM-EBITDA um 201 Millionen US-Dollar. Die durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreise gingen um 8 % zurück, insbesondere bei PVC-Harz und Polyethylen, nachdem die Preise von dem Niveau nachgegeben hatten, das sie infolge von Ölversorgungsstörungen im Nahen Osten erreicht hatten. Höhere europäische Energiekosten und geplante Wartungsstillstände belasteten das Ergebnis ebenfalls.

Europäische Energie stellte im 3. Quartal eine Kostenbelastung von etwa 20 Millionen US-Dollar für PEM dar. Das Management gab an, dass die deutschen Strompreise im 3. Quartal durchschnittlich etwa 126 EUR pro Megawattstunde betrugen, verglichen mit 84 EUR ein Jahr zuvor, und im Oktober weiter stiegen.

Westlake konsolidiert die Verkäufe und Volumina für PVC aus Köln in Wilhelmshaven. Das Management erwartet, dass der Zugang des Standorts zu günstigeren nordamerikanischen Rohstoffen die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit seines europäischen Standard-PVC-Geschäfts verbessern wird, und strebt – sofern sich die Rahmenbedingungen nicht wesentlich ändern – für 2027 Neutralität beim Cashflow in Europa an.

Housing and Infrastructure Products

Der HIP-Umsatz lag im Jahresvergleich mit 1,1 Milliarden US-Dollar nahezu unverändert auf Vorjahresniveau. Die Übernahme von ACI trug 5 % zum Umsatz bei, während das Volumen ohne ACI um 6 % zurückging. Die durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreise stiegen um 1 %.

Das Absatzvolumen ging im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 17 % zurück, im Wesentlichen weil sich einige Bestellungen für Rohre und Formstücke in das 2. Quartal verschoben hatten, da Kunden nach Ausbruch des Nahostkonflikts ihre Versorgung sichern wollten. In den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 lag das Volumen bei Rohren und Formstücken weiterhin 8 % über dem Vergleichszeitraum 2025, gestützt durch Infrastrukturausgaben und die Nachfrage im Rechenzentrumsbau.

Die Nachfrage im Wohnungsbau schwächte sich ab, da höhere Hypothekenzinsen die Bezahlbarkeit verringerten und den Wohnungsbau verlangsamten. Laut Management ging die Nachfrage im Neubausektor im Jahresvergleich im mittleren bis hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich zurück, während der Bereich Reparatur und Modernisierung im niedrigen einstelligen Prozentbereich nachgab.

Kraftstoff-, Fracht- und sonstige Inflation belasteten ebenfalls die Profitabilität von HIP. Westlake nutzt Treibstoffzuschläge und selektive Verkaufspreiserhöhungen, wo dies vertraglich und marktbedingt möglich ist, und setzt gleichzeitig Standortkonsolidierungen, Personalabbau und Effizienzprogramme fort.

Prognose des Managements

• HIP-Umsatz Q4 2026: 900 Millionen bis 1,0 Milliarde US-Dollar.
• HIP-EBITDA-Marge Q4 2026: Etwa 13 %, einschließlich eines typischen saisonalen Rückgangs von vier bis fünf Prozentpunkten.
• Investitionen 2026: Etwa 850 Millionen US-Dollar, 50 Millionen US-Dollar unter der vorherigen Prognose und rund 150 Millionen US-Dollar unter 2025.
• Barzinsaufwand 2026: Etwa 215 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Plan zur Profitabilitätssteigerung: Das Management strebt weiterhin eine Ergebnisverbesserung von 600 Millionen US-Dollar für das Gesamtjahr 2026 an.
• Cashflow Q4: Das Unternehmen erwartet eine erhebliche saisonale Freisetzung von Betriebskapital.

Bei Polyethylen erzielte Westlake im September eine Preiserhöhung von 0,05 US-Dollar pro Pfund und strebte für Oktober eine weitere Erhöhung um 0,05 US-Dollar pro Pfund an. Das Management erwartet saisonalen Volumendruck, bezeichnete die Bestellmuster jedoch als widerstandsfähig. Geplante Wartungsstillstände und Saisonalität werden das PEM-Absatzvolumen im Quartalsvergleich voraussichtlich verringern.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Die europäischen Erdgas- und Strompreise bleiben hoch, was zu anhaltendem Druck auf die Produktionskosten für Chlorvinyl führt.
• Höhere US-Diesel- und Frachtkosten belasten die HIP-Margen, während Preisanpassungen möglicherweise erst zeitverzögert greifen.
• Der durchschnittliche Zinssatz für 30-jährige Hypotheken in den USA hatte zum Zeitpunkt der Telefonkonferenz 7,3 % erreicht, was die Erschwinglichkeit von Wohnraum, Baubeginne und Baugenehmigungen belastete.
• Das Management erwartet, dass der Lagerabbau bei Kunden und die normale Saisonalität die HIP-Volumina im 4. Quartal beeinträchtigen werden.
• Für 2027 wird ein Anstieg der weltweiten Polyethylen-Kapazität um 6 % erwartet, was den Angebotsdruck aufrechterhält. Das Management verwies auf ein moderateres erwartetes Kapazitätswachstum von jeweils 2 % bei PVC-Harz und Natronlauge.
• Die Ethankosten stiegen aufgrund der hohen Cracker-Auslastung, neuer Kapazitäten und Rekordexporte. Die Rohstoffbasis für die Cracker von Westlake besteht zu 100 % aus Ethan.
• Das Management schätzte, dass es nach dem Ende des Nahostkonflikts sechs Monate oder länger dauern könnte, bis sich Lieferketten und Lagerbestände normalisieren.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Fragerunde der Analysten

Das Management erklärte, dass die Preisgestaltung im HIP-Segment im 4. Quartal wahrscheinlich nur begrenzte Entlastung bringen werde, da Treibstoffzuschläge und Preiserhöhungen Zeit brauchen, um ihre Wirkung zu entfalten. Das Unternehmen rechnet daher für das 4. Quartal mit weitgehend ähnlichen Preis-Kosten-Bedingungen wie in Q3, wenngleich ein vorteilhafterer Produktmix einen Teil des Drucks ausgleichen könnte.

Bezüglich Polyethylen verwies das Management auf die starke US-Inlands- und Exportnachfrage, niedrige Lagerbestände in der Branche und steigende weltweite Spotpreise. Es wird erwartet, dass höhere Polyethylen-Preise und niedrige Erdgaskosten die gestiegenen Ethankosten im 4. Quartal mehr als ausgleichen werden.

Für das europäische PVC-Geschäft erklärte das Management, dass Wilhelmshaven wettbewerbsfähiger werden dürfte, wenn Westlake kostengünstige Zwischenprodukte und PVC von der US-Golfküste importiert. Zudem bewertete das Unternehmen die Antidumping-Untersuchung der Europäischen Union als konstruktiven Schritt, betonte jedoch, dass die Energieinflation weiterhin eine erhebliche Einschränkung darstellt.

Beim Ausblick für HIP für 2027 priorisiert das Management Effizienzsteigerungen, Kosteneinsparungen, Standortoptimierung und selektive Preisgestaltung. Es erwartet, dass vom Wohnungsbau abhängige Kategorien anspruchsvoll bleiben, während Infrastruktur, Elektrifizierung sowie Fassadenverkleidungen und Zierleisten (Siding und Trim) Bereiche relativer Widerstandsfähigkeit bieten.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Quartalszahlen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Westlake Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded today, November 4, 2026.

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Holy, Westlake's Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Jeff Holy

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Westlake Corporation conference call to discuss our third quarter 2026 results. I'm joined today by Albert Chao, our Executive Chairman; Jean-Marc Gilson, our President and CEO; and Jon Baksht, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other members of our management team.

During the call, we will refer to our 2 reporting segments, Performance and Essential Materials, which we refer to as PEM or Materials, and Housing and Infrastructure Products, which we refer to as HIP or Products.

Today's conference call will begin with Jean-Marc, who will open with a few comments regarding Westlake's third quarter performance. Jon will discuss our financial and operating results, after which Jean-Marc will add a few concluding comments, and we'll open the call up to questions.

During the third quarter of 2026, we recorded $51 million of charges related to the shutdown of our Cologne PVC facility, $5 million of charges related to other previously announced facility closures, and $2 million of other restructuring costs. We refer to these expense items, which in aggregate were $58 million, as the Identified Items in our earnings release and on this conference call. References to income from operations, EBITDA, income and earnings per share on this call exclude the financial impact of the Identified Items. As such, comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results using non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures is provided in our earnings release, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

Today, management is going to discuss certain topics that will contain forward-looking information that is based on management's beliefs as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to management. These forward-looking statements suggest predictions or expectations and thus are subject to risks or uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in Westlake's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 and other SEC filings. We encourage you to learn more about these factors that could make our actual results to differ by reviewing these SEC filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website.

This morning, Westlake issued a press release with details of our third quarter results. This document is available in the press release section of our website at westlake.com. We have also included an earnings presentation which can be found in the Investor Relations section on our website. A replay of today's call will be available beginning today, 2 hours following the conclusion of this call. This replay may be accessed via Westlake's website.

Please note that information reported on this call speaks only as of today, November 4, 2026, and thus, you are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate as of the time of any replay. Finally, I would advise you that this conference call is being broadcast live through an Internet webcast system that can be accessed on our web page at westlake.com.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Jean-Marc Gilson. Jean-Marc?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us to discuss our third quarter of 2026 results.

During the first quarter, we delivered $408 million of EBITDA and $220 million of free cash flow, which were both significant improvements from the third quarter of 2025. The year-over-year earnings and cash flow growth was driven by a significant improvement in margins in our PEM segment as a result of the benefits from our 3-pillar profitability improvement plan and higher average sales price, which were largely driven by the impact of the Middle East conflict on global oil and feedstock costs where we had 85% of our PEM operations are globally advantaged in North America, utilizing feedstock from low-cost natural gas.

PEM's solid growth more than offset a $20 million year-over-year decline in HIP EBITDA that was primarily driven by a shift in the timing of pipe and fittings customers' orders from the third quarter to the second quarter of 2026, and the industry-wide slowdown in housing activity driven by the increase in mortgage rates during the quarter.

Turning to cash flow, we converted more of our EBITDA to free cash flow in the third quarter of 2026, and our capital expenditures of $188 million were $51 million below the third quarter of 2025, driven by our footprint optimization and cost-saving actions. During the third quarter, our 3-pillar profitability improvement plan once again provided significant year-over-year margin and earnings tailwind. Through the first 3 quarters of 2026, it has delivered $500 million EBITDA uplift, and it remains on track to deliver $600 million of combined full year earnings improvement.

Our footprint optimization work continued in the third quarter of 2026 with the announced closure of our PVC resin facility in Cologne, Germany, which should provide a benefit to EBITDA in 2027 and beyond. As we have discussed on previous calls, European PVC resin profitability has been and is likely to continue to be under significant pressure from the combination of weak domestic demand, increasing imports and high regional feedstock and energy costs. Industry-wide, commodity PVC resin operating rates are roughly 60% in Europe today, which is indicative of the high and escalating cost environment and regional supply-demand imbalance.

In response, we have taken the strategic action to reposition our European commodity PVC resin business by consolidating our Cologne sales operations and sales volume to our recently acquired regionally advantaged site in Wilhelmshaven, Germany. The combination of Wilhelmshaven's access to low-cost North American feedstocks and sales volume from the Cologne consolidation should enable us to bring a highly competitive European commodity PVC business. We believe that this is another example of the proactive approach that we are taking to improve the operations and profitability of our global network as we manage through the current prolonged downturn in the global chemical industry.

This downturn has been unprecedented, and a globally advantaged feedstock and energy position in North America has been a key strategic advantage as we navigate. This was particularly apparent during the second quarter of 2026 when global oil supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict caused a spike in the global price of many chemical products, without impacting our North American ethane and natural gas costs, leading to solid margins and earnings last quarter.

However, towards the end of the second quarter and early in the third quarter, many of these global chemical prices moderated as oil supply somewhat rebalanced and hopes rose for an end to the conflict. As a result, PEM experienced sequentially lower average sales price, particularly for PVC resin and polyethylene in the first quarter of 2026, that drove sequentially lower sales and margin.

PEM's European chlorovinyl business experienced significantly lower margins as a result of rapid escalation in elevated European energy costs during the third quarter, in addition to plant turnaround actions at our newly acquired Wilhelmshaven facility to bring the site up to Westlake standards and to position it for success in 2027 and beyond. The combination of these factors led to sequentially lower EBITDA in our PEM segment in the third quarter.

Turning to HIP sequential results. We experienced a larger than usual seasonal decline in sales volume of 17% from the second to the third quarter this year, largely due to the pipe and fittings customer order timing shift that I mentioned earlier. Additionally, housing product demand was lower due to the continued slowdown in North American residential construction activity.

Over the course of the summer, interest rates on the average 30-year mortgage increased from approximately 6.5% to above 7%, which added to already high affordability concerns from potential homebuyers. As a result, single-family housing starts decelerated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate, under 900,000 starts in the first quarter of 2026, as compared to 943,000 starts in 2025, which had an impact on orders from a homebuilder and distributor customers as they adjusted their sales and inventory levels to these lower construction levels, and contributed to sequentially lower HIP sales volume and earnings in the third quarter.

I will provide additional detail on our current outlook for HIP and PEM at the end of the call. But for now, I would now like to turn our call over to Jon to provide more detail on our financial results and performance for the third quarter of 2026. Jon?

Jonathan Baksht

Thank you, Jean-Marc, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter of 2026, Westlake reported sales of $3 billion and EBITDA of $408 million, which compares to EBITDA of $313 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $679 million in the second quarter of 2026. Before I discuss the details of our segment results, I want to provide some high-level thoughts on the earnings bridge.

Overall, our EBITDA increased by approximately $100 million from the third quarter of 2025. Our 3-pillar profitability improvement plan contributed approximately $200 million to the year-over-year EBITDA increase, with another approximately $100 million contribution from higher PEM selling prices. These benefits were partially offset by significant cost inflation, particularly distribution expenses and European energy costs, the Wilhelmshaven integration and lower HIP sales volume.

On a sequential basis, our third quarter EBITDA of $408 million was approximately $275 million lower than the second quarter of 2026. There were 3 key drivers of the lower earnings. First, lower PEM selling prices, primarily for polyethylene and PVC resin, which came off their initial highs at the onset of the Middle East conflict, drove approximately $150 million of the sequential EBITDA decline. Second, sequentially lower HIP sales volumes contributed approximately $50 million to the quarterly EBITDA decline, with the biggest impact coming from pipes and fittings and roofing. And the third key driver in the sequential earnings bridge was around $50 million of higher input costs across European energy and North American diesel, freight and ethane.

At the segment level, HIP sales of $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026 were essentially unchanged from the prior year period. Excluding the ACI acquisition, which added 5% to third quarter sales, HIP sales volumes declined 6% year-over-year, driven by lower housing product demand, particularly for roofing and stone as the result of the slowdown in North American residential construction. HIP average sale price increased 1% year-over-year driven by higher housing product prices.

HIP EBITDA of $195 million decreased by $20 million from the third quarter of 2025 as the higher average sales price was not enough to offset cost inflation, which, along with unfavorable mix shifts, drove a slight decline in HIP EBITDA margin to 18% or 20% in the prior year period. Looking ahead, we see an opportunity for HIP margins to recover in 2027 in cost reductions, efficiency efforts and some pricing initiatives to offset the cost inflation that we realized in 2026.

Sequentially, HIP sales of $1.1 billion decreased by $165 million, driven by a 17% decrease in sales volume and a 4% increase in average sales price. The sales volume decline was most significant at pipes and fittings, which was impacted by a portion of pipe orders shifting from the third quarter of 2026 into the second quarter of 2026, as customers sought to secure supply in the wake of the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. Putting the timing shift aside, pipe and fittings sales volumes through the first 3 quarters of 2026 was 8% higher than the first 3 quarters of 2025, which we believe is more indicative of the overall trend of pipe and fittings sales volume growth, driven by infrastructure spending, including increased demand from the construction of data centers.

HIP's third quarter EBITDA decreased sequentially by $81 million due to the lower sales volume and cost inflation, particularly higher vehicle fuel and freight prices. Where contracts and market conditions allow, we are passing along the higher freight costs with fuel surcharges. And in other cases, we will be going out to the market with selling price increases to offset the inflationary pressure that we have been facing.

Moving to our PEM segment, sales of $1.9 billion increased 8% year-over-year, driven by a 9% increase in average sales price led by polyethylene and PVC resin, and a 4% increase in comparable sales volume. The combined impact to PEM sales from plant closures and the Wilhelmshaven acquisition was a year-over-year reduction in sales of 5%. PEM's third quarter of 2026 EBITDA margin expanded to 11% from 5% in the third quarter of 2025 as a result of the higher average sales price and benefit from our 3-pillar profitability improvement plan. The higher sales, favorable geographic sales mix and improved margin drove a $125 million year-over-year increase in PEM third quarter EBITDA to $215 million.

While we are pleased with the year-over-year improvement in PEM's third quarter earnings and margins, they're still well below our view of mid-cycle or reinvestment level economics. We believe that certain assets in the industry are operating at cash margins that are unsustainable over the medium to long term, which we believe could improve the global supply-demand balance, supporting an eventual recovery in PEM selling prices and margins.

Compared to the second quarter, PEM's third quarter of 2026 sales decreased by 6%, driven by an 8% decline in average sales price, particularly for PVC resin and polyethylene, that was partially offset by a 2% contribution to sales from the Wilhelmshaven acquisition. Since peaking in May, U.S. contract prices for polyethylene fell $0.15 per pound in June and $0.10 in July, before recovering $0.05 in September, which brought polyethylene's year-to-date price gains to $0.25 at the end of the third quarter.

Meanwhile, contract prices for U.S. PVC fell $0.03 per pound in July, with export prices down approximately $0.09 per pound on average from the second to third quarter. As of the end of the third quarter, both contract and export PVC prices were up $0.10 per pound since the start of the year. Prices for commodity PVC in Europe ran up even more in the second quarter and came down even more sharply in the third quarter, with average prices down approximately $0.20 per pound sequentially.

The lower average selling prices were the primary driver of PEM's $201 million sequential EBITDA decline, with additional earnings headwinds from higher European energy costs and planned turnarounds, including actions taken to integrate the recently acquired Wilhelmshaven site into Westlake's global manufacturing footprint.

Now turning to the balance sheet and cash flow statements. We continue to maintain financial flexibility with a strong balance sheet as well as our long-standing commitment to a solid investment-grade credit rating. As of September 30, 2026, cash and investments totaled $2 billion, and total debt was $5.1 billion, with a staggered long-term fixed rate net maturity schedule.

For the third quarter of 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $408 million, while capital expenditures were $188 million, resulting in free cash flow of $220 million. As is typically the case, due to the seasonality of many of our businesses, we expect our cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2026 to benefit from a significant release of working capital.

Now let me provide guidance for the remainder of the year. Based on our current view of demand and prices, we expect fourth quarter of 2026 revenue in our Housing and Infrastructure Products segment to be between $900 million and $1 billion, with an EBITDA margin of approximately 13%, which reflects the typical 4 to 5 percentage point quarterly seasonal margin decline in the business. In PEM, U.S. contract PVC prices were flat in September, while U.S. contract polyethylene prices for October have yet to settle. We are working to implement our $0.05 per pound increase announcement. In addition to the $0.05 per pound price increase realized in September, which will help to offset sequentially lower expected PEM sales volumes due to turnaround and seasonality.

Total capital expenditures for the company for 2026 are now expected to be $850 million, which is $50 million lower than our prior guidance and is approximately $150 million lower than last year due to cost reduction efforts.

We will also continue to invest inorganically to drive growth. Early in the fourth quarter, we closed on the acquisition of a steel roofing company that we expect to broaden our offerings and strengthen our platform. We continue to expect full year 2026 cash interest expense to be approximately $215 million.

We are delivering on our 2026 cost reduction initiatives, but aren't stopping there. As we look forward into 2027, we recognize the need to do more against the challenging macroeconomic backdrop with the slowdown we are seeing across the building products space in both new construction and repair and remodel. In PEM, the market continues to be oversupplied globally in a number of key products with a 6% addition to global polyethylene capacity expected in 2027. Chlorovinyl supplier dynamics are relatively more favorable with the 2% capacity increase expected for each of PVC resin and caustic soda next year. We will continue to be proactive in responding to changes in the market by matching our supply to profitable demand opportunities.

Now I will turn the call over to Jean-Marc to provide further color on the current outlook for our business. Jean-Marc?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Thank you, Jon. As we look ahead to the end of the year and into 2027, conditions remain dynamic, and there are 3 macroeconomic areas in particular that we expect will have an impact on our financial results.

First, global oil and energy prices have once again been on the rise, creating some potential tailwinds in pricing for many of our PEM products and partially offsetting seasonal and cost headwinds for our earnings. Brent oil currently trades to $108 per barrel as compared to an average of $87 in the third quarter of 2026. European natural gas prices are currently the equivalent of $33 per million Btu, as compared to an average of $21 in the third quarter of 2026 and $10 in the fourth quarter of last year. And diesel prices in the U.S. are currently at $6.35 per gallon, which is nearly $1 more than the third quarter of 2026 and almost double the fourth quarter of last year. So while higher global oil prices should support higher selling prices in our PEM segment, they will likely be some partial offsets in the near term from cost inflation in other parts of the company.

Second, global interest rates have been increasing in recent months, partially as a result of higher inflation expectations. The average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. is currently 7.3%, which is 50 basis points higher than the third quarter average and over 100 basis points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. This higher borrowing cost has driven the affordability of U.S. homes to one of its lowest levels in decades, which has led to a significant decrease in homebuilder foot traffic, single-family housing starts and building permits. HIP's third quarter sales volumes and earnings reflected this trend of slowing residential construction activity, which we currently expect to continue, with some offsetting benefits to HIP sales volume growth from continued demand growth from infrastructure investments and the underlying strength of our product portfolio, innovation and customer relationships in our HIP operations.

Finally, global industrial and manufacturing activity continues to show steady improvement, as demonstrated by the October PMI reading of 55.5 reported 2 days ago, which was the tenth consecutive month in expansionary territory. PMI readings in [ EU ] and China have also been at or about 50 each month this year, showing the resilience of the global economy to higher oil and interest rates. Our own sales volumes for products generally exposed to industrial and manufacturing markets have generally followed this trend of modest growth throughout 2026. And we would expect demand for these products to continue to follow PMI readings as we move into 2027.

While macroeconomic conditions will impact our results, they are largely outside our control. Hence, our efforts and focus for the rest of the year and into 2027 will be on improving our cash flow by controlling what we can control, including: one, continuing to build upon our 3-pillar profitability improvement plan. We recognize the need to identify and deliver even more cost savings and plant reliability improvement in 2027 to compensate for macroeconomic headwinds. As a result, we will continue to be proactive and diligent in our assessment of prospects for long-term profitability at each of our sites. And we will take actions when and where necessary.

Two, identifying and executing on organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Last week, a new PVCO plant in Wichita Falls began operations, with its first commercial sales volume expected in 2027. This plant represents a meaningful investment in innovative, fast-growing products that deliver significant value to our customers while also providing attractive margins and return for Westlake.

M&A also remains a focus area for Westlake, and we believe that our solid investment-grade balance sheet with $2 billion of cash and cash equivalents positions us well to acquire attractive assets at reasonable valuations in a rising interest rate environment, such as our 2026 acquisition of ACI, Wilhelmshaven and a steel roofing business.

And three, improving our product offering through innovation and intense focus on customer service and satisfaction. We expect 2027 to be a challenging year for the homebuilding industry. And in such an environment, our ability to continue to outperform the broader building products market will rest largely on our ability to increase engagement with and provide value to our large national homebuilder and distribution customers. It will be important for our team to address the need to improve the affordability of new homes through the right product offering while keeping up with the latest styles and trends.

So in summary, as has been the case in recent years, macroeconomic conditions remain fluid, and our near-term focus will continue to be on creating our own headwinds. My confidence in our ability to adapt to and succeed in these dynamic conditions rest largely on Westlake's foundational strength, which includes a diversified and complementary portfolio of businesses, our vertically integrated business model, our globally advantaged feedstock and industry position in the U.S., our experienced management team with the right capabilities to execute transformation, our strong, supportive customer base, and finally, our investment-grade rated balance sheet with $2 billion of cash and securities.

Thank you very much for listening to our third quarter earnings call. I will now turn the call back over to Jeff.

Jeff Holy

Thank you, Jean-Marc. Before we begin taking questions, I'd like to remind listeners that our earnings presentation, which provides additional clarity into our results, is available on our website. And a replay of this teleconference will be available 2 hours after the call has ended. We will now take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first call comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

Fragen und Antworten

Patrick Cunningham

I think I wanted to start on the higher diesel and freight within the HIP business. You noted some price increases here. I guess, one, what is the price/cost headwind that you're anticipating into 4Q? And are customers accepting these pass-through increases given the broader market weakness? Is there any risk of volume destruction on more aggressive inventory management?

Jonathan Baksht

Patrick, in terms of the cost headwinds and specifically in the HIP business where we guide to, there's -- we're not necessarily seeing an abatement right now. What happens in the Middle East is certainly going to be a big driver, but we expect there to be a lag effect even once that resolves just given low inventory levels across both crude and diesel. And what we're planning for and what's reflected in our guidance is a continued market environment that we saw in the Q3 carrying over into Q4. We're going to address that by working on efficiencies across the business, find ways to lower our costs holistically to overcome that, and then some selective price increases where we can get them.

From a Q4 standpoint, it's going to be hard to recognize a lot of pricing. There is a lag effect to that as well. And so that's -- those are really the factors that are baked into our guidance for Q4 that you see.

Patrick Cunningham

Understood. Very helpful. And then the higher European energy cost is a pretty significant impact, I guess. One, can you help quantify what the headwind was both sequentially and year-on-year? And then what do you anticipate 4Q and exiting into the first quarter? And how are you planning your operations for that environment?

Jonathan Baksht

Sure. I'm happy to take that one. Well, to give you a sense of what's going on in the European energy prices, just year-over-year, we saw for Q3 a 50% increase in power costs. And so this is in euro terms. But on average, in Q3, we were around EUR 84 per megawatt hour. Q3 averaged closer to EUR 126 per megawatt hour. And if you look at where things were in October, it went up to EUR 170 on average. And today, we're seeing prices in excess of EUR 200 per megawatt hour. So clearly, there is a big impact that is going on in Europe right now in terms of what we're seeing in that market.

As it relates to quantifying it for Q2, within the PEM business, it's going to -- it was roughly a $20 million headwind on costs just from the European energy complex -- I'm sorry, for Q3 -- yes, Q3, last quarter.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Frank Mitch with Fermium Research.

Frank Mitsch

Yes. I was wondering if you could speak a little bit more about polyethylene expectations here in the fourth quarter. Obviously, you got the $0.05 in September, not a lot of it was realized in the third quarter, so you'll get to all benefits of that here in the fourth quarter. As you indicated, you're going for price increases in October. And then also, I mean, we're seeing ethane prices really spike up here, which one would think would help in your negotiations. But any kind of sense in terms of what your expectations are on polyethylene pricing, or more -- probably more importantly, on the margin side given where ethane prices are currently?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes. So the demand first for polyethylene in the U.S. has been strong. And it's been strong both for domestic and export markets. Industry inventories are down. And so it's supporting a more bullish, I mean, sentimental pricing. Globally, the spot prices have been trending higher, $0.10 per pound to the start of the third quarter, and it's continuing to move higher into November.

As we look into the fourth quarter, I think we expect that there will be some seasonality in terms of the sales volume. But so far, we've seen -- what we've seen the order pattern is that it's been holding pretty strong. So we haven't seen a big decline so far in the third quarter.

Regarding the pricing, as you said, I mean, polyethylene went up $0.05 a pound in September. I think there is a $0.05 nomination for October. It's not settled yet. And I think there is also, from the market, a $0.05 nomination in November. So we will see what it does. But overall, we expect a pretty good quarter for our polyethylene business in the company.

Frank Mitsch

And then also, you've been doing some things, obviously, in the European PVC markets with the Wilhelmshaven acquisition. And then I also saw that there is some -- the European Commission is looking at some antidumping that's taking place in that part of the world. You indicated that there were going to be some costs associated with the write-down of Cologne and the Wilhelmshaven acquisition. How do you think about European PVC profitability with the shutdown of Cologne, the moving of the volumes over to Wilhelmshaven and any potential benefits from this European Union PVC antidumping investigation?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes. I think they're going in the right direction. So European Union started the investigation, and so now anyone who is importing in the U.S. needs to register the sales and volume and price with the European Commission. So we think this is a good step from European Union. As Jon has explained, I mean, the price for electricity, not only for gas, but for electricity, which is a key factor for us in producing our chlorovinyl, has been really shooting up and I think putting tremendous pressure on the industry.

That is why a few -- I mean, quarters ago, we decided to go ahead and buy the Wilhelmshaven, and Wilhelmshaven is insulated for a very large part to energy to electricity prices in Europe as we import and we will import and we've been importing most of our intermediates and PVC from the Gulf Coast. So we think that Wilhelmshaven in the long term, and long term, I mean, starting in 2027, is going to be a winner for us.

In the meantime, we're also restructuring the rest of our assets, eliminating costs. And we expect 2027 to, unless something really changes, we expect that the profitability in Europe will turn back positive again. And our goal is to get back to a cash flow neutrality next year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter

Jean-Marc, ethane is still up today, it's up about 35% since the end of the quarter, while oil is dropping. So why do you think that is? What's your -- what are your expectations for ethane in Q4? And what are your expectations for ethane in 2027?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes. So yes, it's correct that ethane went up, and I think it's mostly driven by demand for LPG and gas overall. It's up in the -- it was starting to go up. We expect it to stay up in the fourth quarter. We are expecting it to probably go down a little bit, but we can't predict for next year. But overall, the price increase that we are seeing on ethylene are more than offsetting what we are -- in polyethylene, the rise in ethane. And at the same time, what you're seeing is that gas prices continue to be very low at about $2.5 per million Btu.

So overall, we still expect to have a positive contribution to our business in the fourth quarter. The combination of even a little bit higher ethane price, lower gas price and higher polyethylene prices.

If Jon wants to add anything? Jon?

Jonathan Baksht

Yes. And the other dynamics here that are putting some upward pressure on ethane, right now, if you look at the cracker fleet for the industry, we're running around mid-90% utilization, which is very high. You've seen Golden Triangle starting up early. That's also increasing some demand. And then you're also seeing exports in your records. There's limited dock capacity right now, but it is -- there is a strong pull on the ethane right now.

David Begleiter

Very good. And just a little bit long term, when the conflict does end and the strait reopens, how long do you think it will take to normalize supply chains and inventories and production to get back to pre-conflict levels and activity?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Look, it's a great question, and I wish I knew the answer. But the -- we think that it's going to take several months to get back to normal. It's not going to be overnight. I think it would take probably upwards to 6 months to a little bit more to normalize.

And again, I think we've been getting a few questions about the -- what happens when the conflict ends. I think people need to remember that the conflict not -- certainly, there were some positive side of it, which is mostly it has pushed prices up. But on the other side, there has been some significant negative impact on the company to European energy, is one factor that we just covered. The other one is that transportation costs have really increased dramatically, and we are seeing that every month in the company. Inflation also has been pretty high. And then last but not least, I mean, it has pushed up interest rates too. So while it has been -- it has some benefit on one side of business, it certainly had the other side.

So overall, we will see. I think there was still a little bit of a net positive, but -- and that's why we will continue to control what we can control and focusing on our costs, so that when and if we go back to normal, we continue to see some progress on our earnings and profitability.

Jonathan Baksht

And the other factor is just don't forget that what we're seeing is inventory levels for polyethylene right now are very low, and will also take some time to rebuild those.

Operator

The next call comes from the line of Salvator Tiano with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Colin Pelzer

This is Colin Pelzer on behalf of Salvator. Just trying to understand your HIP inflation and year-on-year results a little bit better, assuming organic and M&A volumes didn't have a material impact to your bottom line. You faced a $20 million year-over-year price/cost headwind, and with just 1% price, that implies a 3% inflation. So why was inflation so muted? Given PVC prices alone, should have been materially higher.

Jonathan Baksht

Yes. What you're seeing is that the bridge there is really just a mix effect, from a margin perspective. If you look at where our sales were, they were disproportionately on a higher margin mix in Q2. And we talked about some of the pull-forward effect in some of our pipe and fittings and infrastructure business, and that mix impact is really what drove that delta you're talking about.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Pete Osterland with Truist Securities.

Peter Osterland

First, just on the volume declines you saw in HIP in the third quarter, could you bifurcate between what you're seeing in new construction demand versus repair and remodel? And are you anticipating any further destocking activity in the fourth quarter and then into early '27?

Jonathan Baksht

Sure. So the mix right now is certainly -- there's more compression in the new construction market than there is in repair and remodel. They're both down year-over-year. The new construction is probably more mid to high single digits, where repair and remodel is closer to low single digits. So that compression on both.

And as it relates to destocking, in Q4, part of what we're estimating is that there will be some effect of destocking in Q4 as there's just pressures on our customers and through that supply chain due to the market softness. So we'd expect to see that going into year-end, which is also seasonal factors as well, as you know, in Q4.

Peter Osterland

Great. And then I also wanted to ask just your footprint optimization activities have been largely focused on PEM more recently. But just given the continued slowdown for building products demand, how are you assessing your current footprint in HIP? Are you seeing any need for rationalization in that business? Any areas of the business that are particularly disadvantaged right now from a cost or demand perspective?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes. No, it's a good question. I think you're right. We've been mostly talking about PEM because anytime we do some rationalization there, it's a big dollar and it's big size and it's lots of people at one time. But we've been, at the same time, really continuing also to focus on productivity on the HIP side. And we've closed numerous smaller sites in HIP this year and last year, and we're seeing the benefit of it. We have seen also a significant reduction in employees.

So we have focused in HIP as well as in PEM on the productivity improvement, and we will continue to see the benefit getting into next year. You are right that with the conditions that we're facing, we are probably -- we are right now redoubling our efforts in making sure that we contain the cost also on the HIP side as well as on the PEM side.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Yefremov with Barclays.

Aleksey Yefremov

Could you discuss your energy exposure in Europe? To what degree are you paying sort of spot TTF or spot energy prices? Or do you have sort of expansive hedging programs or maybe long-term power agreements that allow you to just move the volatility in the region?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes. No, it's a good question. I think as Jon said, we are starting to see prices. And we are mostly exports in Germany because all of our chlorovinyl facilities in Germany, which unfortunately, that's 1 of the highest energy price in Europe, we are seeing some competitors who have -- prices are not exactly the same across Europe. So we've seen certainly some spike in Germany that has influenced the price of our derivatives. So we do have some programs, but we are not hedged completely in terms of energy prices, and we've seen really wide fluctuations.

So we have a program in place to deal with the issue. And that's why now that we have -- we're in the final stages of doing a large turnaround at Wilhelmshaven, once that facility starts, we will start seeing the full impact of importing raw material -- advantaged price, raw material from the Gulf Coast into the European market.

Aleksey Yefremov

And you've already provided some commentary on pricing and margins in HIP, but just wanted to understand it a little bit better. So is your price/cost spread getting better, worse or staying the same in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter? And then do you expect this price/cost situation to start improving in the first half or not?

Jonathan Baksht

Yes. We're not going to provide anything in guidance for next year. But in terms of Q4, there is a little bit of pricing. But as I mentioned in a previous answer, there's really not much changing. We are doing some fuel surcharges where we can pass those along. But I wouldn't expect a large price increase delta between Q3 and Q4. And that's why you're seeing the margin, for our guide, is fairly consistent with Q3 margins.

The other piece that I'd note is, from a mix shift standpoint, we should benefit from a more positive mix going into fourth quarter, which will offset some of the cost pressures that we're currently seeing.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy

I was wondering if you could comment on your caustic soda price experience in the third quarter as well as your outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes, caustic soda. So if you look at the caustic soda this year, it's an interesting study, because it's, overall, the market has been stable. A little bit on the weak side, the global caustic market has been a little bit on the weaker side. Now it's very interesting that this year, and I think it's a result of the war in the Middle East, the markets have really regionalized, in a sense that in the U.S., prices have been stable. They are a little bit on the up right now, and looking in the fourth quarter. But it's been not -- it's been really mostly driven by [ additives ] and a few things like that and a little bit of a supply constraint.

In Europe, prices are also going up. And the surprising thing, which is a little bit unusual is that prices are going down in Asia because of oversupply, mostly in China. But it doesn't have an impact across the world.

And hence, going back to the regionalization, the reason being that it's really hard to put your hands, the availability of transport and freight is very complicated right now. Not only the availability, but the cost also. So it has really been putting a floor to the caustic market that we haven't seen in previous years. So overall, that's what is really sustaining the caustic prices that we are seeing in the market right now. And we are pretty much looking into the same thing with a little bit of up in the fourth quarter.

Jonathan Baksht

Yes. Kevin, I was just going to add, just specifics for your question, if you want some pricing. October was up $0.05, and right now, with CMA forecast, another $0.10 in November.

Kevin McCarthy

And then secondly, I just had a broad question about the planned maintenance activity that you would foresee in the fourth quarter across the company and whether or not there are any unplanned outages at the moment that we should be taking into account for modeling purposes?

Jean-Marc Gilson

Yes, we have a few unplanned activities, nothing really big. Right now, we have some planned outages mostly on the on the ECU side at [ Lake Charles South ], but it was all planned. So apart from that, normal and regular maintenance across the fleet.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Abigail Eberts with Wells Fargo.

Abigail Eberts

Another one on ethane, just looking at your overall feed slate, I know you're primarily ethylene, ethane, but I'm just wondering about your distribution between that and other NGLs at the moment given what we're seeing with like butane prices, for example.

Jean-Marc Gilson

We have no exposure except ethane in our fleet. So it's 100% ethane as far as the crackers are concerned.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

Joshua Spector

I just want to kind of wrap up on HIP, I guess, at a high level. I mean it seems like the commentary is targeted pricing and cost savings where you can in fourth quarter. But what's the approach to 2027 here? Do you expect to be able to get Gen 1 pricing through distribution at all? Or are you already kind of digging deeper around cost savings to improve or preserve margins next year? So how do you weigh those 2? And frankly, where you compete in high versus low end, which has been a factor this year as well?

Jonathan Baksht

Yes, Josh, it's all of the above. We're going to do everything we can to get margins back to the levels that they were at this year. And the one that we can control the most is efficiencies, cost savings. Jean-Marc touched on, looking at the footprint and other pieces, it's clearly not as big as some of the PEM items, but it's -- we are going to drive efficiencies where we can. That's first and foremost.

And as relates to pricing, we're still early November. And we're going to work with our customers and be very strategic around where pricing is appropriate, where not, where we can get some fuel surcharges in there. There will be some price increases, but it's still premature at this point of the year telling you what the 2027 price will be, but there will certainly be some pricing flowing through next year.

Jean-Marc Gilson

if I may add also -- sorry. If I may add one thing around it. We have a few different, I mean, segments also in HIP. Some have been doing pretty well, actually. And so siding and trim and even supplying to the housing market, we've been pretty good, pretty resilient. We've seen some weakness in some stone and roofing. But if you look at our pipe and fitting, yes, we had a third quarter down and we are expecting it. But in this quarter, we're back to normal volumes. So it's not the floor is -- I mean, we're going to the floor. And also in our, I mean, electrification and more the infrastructure business, we're doing pretty well.

So we're still, I mean, pretty okay with our HIP segment. Yes, we are seeing anything that's driven by housing and starts were cautious, but we also have some strength in other places.

Operator

The question-and-answer session has now ended. Jeff, are there any closing remarks?

Jeff Holy

Yes. Thank you, Jill, and thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We hope you'll join us again for our next conference call to discuss our fourth quarter results.

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's Westlake Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this call will be available for replay beginning 2 hours after the call has ended. The replay can be accessed via Westlake's website. Goodbye.