Sunoco (SUNC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Rekord-EBITDA und Offen-Übernahme
Sunoco meldete im dritten Quartal 2026 ein bereinigtes Rekord-EBITDA von 1,06 Milliarden US-Dollar sowie einen ausschüttungsfähigen Cashflow von 588 Millionen US-Dollar. Die Quartalsausschüttung stieg auf rund 1,015 US-Dollar je Aktie. Das starke Ergebnis wurde durch solide Leistungen im Kraftstoffvertrieb, stabile Midstream-Segmente und hohe Raffineriemargen gestützt. Nach Quartalsende schloss Sunoco die Übernahme von Offen Petroleum für 600 Millionen US-Dollar ab. Das Management zeigt sich zuversichtlich, die Jahresprognose 2026 zu übertreffen, und prognostiziert für 2027 trotz möglicher Marktschwankungen ein weiteres Rekordjahr.
Wichtigste Erkenntnisse
- Sunoco meldete für das dritte Quartal 2026 ein bereinigtes Rekord-EBITDA von 1,06 Milliarden US-Dollar, bereinigt um einmalige Transaktionskosten von rund 11 Millionen US-Dollar. Der bereinigte ausschüttungsfähige Cashflow lag bei 588 Millionen US-Dollar.
- Die Quartalsausschüttung belief sich auf etwa 1,015 US-Dollar pro Stammanteil der Sunoco LP und SunocoCorp-Aktie, was einem Anstieg von 1,25 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal und mehr als 10 % gegenüber Q3 2025 entspricht.
- Das bereinigte EBITDA im Bereich Kraftstoffvertrieb erreichte 532 Millionen US-Dollar (ohne Transaktionskosten von 9 Millionen US-Dollar), bei einem vertriebenen Volumen von rund 4,2 Milliarden Gallonen und einer Kraftstoffmarge von 0,168 US-Dollar pro Gallone.
- Das bereinigte EBITDA des Segments Raffinerie stieg auf 238 Millionen US-Dollar, verglichen mit 175 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2 2026. Der Durchsatz der Raffinerie Burnaby lag im Schnitt bei 57.000 Barrel pro Tag, wobei die Raffineriemarge über 54 US-Dollar pro Barrel lag und die Betriebskosten unter 10 US-Dollar pro Barrel blieben.
- Sunoco schloss nach Quartalsende die 600 Millionen US-Dollar schwere Übernahme von Offen Petroleum ab. Offen steuert ein jährliches Kraftstoffvertriebsvolumen von rund 2,5 Milliarden Gallonen bei und erweitert die Präsenz des Unternehmens im Mittleren Westen sowie in der Mountain West-Region.
- Das Management zeigt sich sehr zuversichtlich, dass die Ergebnisse für das Gesamtjahr 2026 das obere Ende der eigenen Prognose übertreffen werden, und rechnet auch für 2027 mit einem erneuten Rekordjahr – selbst wenn sich die Raffinerie-Spreads wieder dem Niveau der Mitte des Marktzyklus annähern sollten.
Wichtigste Finanzdaten
| Kennzahl | Q3 2026 | Vergleich / Kommentar |
|---|---|---|
| Bereinigtes EBITDA | 1,06 Milliarden US-Dollar | Rekord-Ergebnis im dritten Quartal; ohne einmalige Transaktionskosten von rund 11 Millionen US-Dollar |
| Bereinigter ausschüttungsfähiger Cashflow | 588 Millionen US-Dollar | Ausschüttungsdeckungsgrad der letzten 12 Monate von 2,1x |
| Quartalsausschüttung | Rund 1,015 US-Dollar | Plus 1,25 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal und mehr als 10 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr |
| Verfügbarkeit der revolvierenden Kreditfazilität | 2,3 Milliarden US-Dollar | Liquidität zum Quartalsende |
| Verschuldungsgrad | Rund 3,5x | Unter dem langfristigen Zielwert des Unternehmens von 4x |
| Wachstumsinvestitionen | 121 Millionen US-Dollar | Q3 2026 |
| Instandhaltungsinvestitionen | 116 Millionen US-Dollar | Q3 2026 |
Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung
Kraftstoffvertrieb
Das bereinigte EBITDA belief sich auf 532 Millionen US-Dollar (ohne Transaktionskosten von 9 Millionen US-Dollar), verglichen mit 516 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2 2026 und 238 Millionen US-Dollar in Q3 2025 auf gleicher Bereinigungsbasis. Sunoco vertrieb rund 4,2 Milliarden Gallonen Kraftstoff bei einer Marge von 0,168 US-Dollar pro Gallone. Das Volumen stieg im Vergleich zum Vorquartal leicht an, während die Marge geringfügig sank.
Das Management erklärte, dass Marktvolatilitäten, insbesondere beim Diesel, Chancen zur Rohgewinnoptimierung boten. Als Einflussfaktoren wurden knappe Destillatbestände, globale Lieferunterbrechungen, Raffinerieausfälle sowie saisonale Wartungsarbeiten genannt.
Dem Management zufolge blieb die Nachfrage in den USA widerstandsfähig; auf Basis der in der Konferenz genannten EIA-Daten lag Diesel im Jahresvergleich nahezu auf Vorjahresniveau, während Benzin im niedrigen einstelligen Prozentbereich nachgab. In Kanada sank die Diesel- und Benzinnachfrage angesichts höherer Preisvolatilität im niedrigen bis mittleren einstelligen Prozentbereich, die Margen blieben jedoch stark. Das Karibikgeschäft wurde vom Management weiterhin als Wachstumsmarkt bezeichnet, gestützt durch Volumen- und Margenausweitung.
Die Übernahme von Offen Petroleum erweitert die regionale Skalierung und die Versorgungsoptionen von Sunoco. Das Management geht davon aus, dass die übernommenen Logistikkapazitäten und die Marktdichte den Transport, den Einkauf und das Wachstum im Marken- sowie im markenlosen Geschäft unterstützen werden.
Pipeline-Systeme
Das bereinigte EBITDA lag bei 166 Millionen US-Dollar, nach 190 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2 2026 und 182 Millionen US-Dollar in Q3 2025. Der Durchsatz betrug rund 1,3 Millionen Barrel pro Tag und blieb im Vergleich zu beiden Vorperioden weitgehend unverändert.
Der Rückgang gegenüber dem Vorquartal spiegelte geringere Beiträge von Joint-Ventures sowie das Fehlen von FERC-Rückforderungserträgen wider, die im ersten Halbjahr 2026 verbucht worden waren. Das Management betonte, dass das Segment weiterhin stabile Erträge liefert und Möglichkeiten bietet, die Auslastung zu verbessern und das Volumen durch vergleichsweise moderate Investitionen zu steigern.
Terminals
Das bereinigte EBITDA betrug 124 Millionen US-Dollar (ohne Transaktionskosten von 2 Millionen US-Dollar), gegenüber 115 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2 2026 und 76 Millionen US-Dollar in Q3 2025 auf vergleichbarer Basis. Der Durchsatz blieb bei nahe 1 Million Barrel pro Tag.
Die Ergebnisse profitierten vom Transmix-Aufbereitungsgeschäft und von Beiträgen des erweiterten europäischen Netzwerks von Sunoco. Das Management sieht zudem Chancen, die Auslastung zu erhöhen und von Kunden unterstützte Wachstumsprojekte zu verfolgen.
Raffinerie
Das bereinigte EBITDA des Segments Raffinerie stieg auf 238 Millionen US-Dollar, nach 175 Millionen US-Dollar in Q2 2026. Der Durchsatz der Raffinerie Burnaby lag im Durchschnitt bei 57.000 Barrel pro Tag und damit leicht über dem Vorquartal. Die Raffineriemarge überstieg 54 US-Dollar pro Barrel, während die Betriebskosten das zweite Quartal in Folge unter 10 US-Dollar pro Barrel blieben.
Das Management führte das Ergebnis sowohl auf günstige Marktbedingungen als auch auf die operative Umsetzung zurück. Sunoco strebt keine Ausweitung des Raffineriegeschäfts als eigenständige Strategie an, sieht Burnaby jedoch bei einer Erholung der Raffinerie-Spreads als Quelle für ein überproportionales Aufwärtspotenzial.
Prognose des Managements
Das Management zeigte sich sehr zuversichtlich, dass die Ergebnisse für das Gesamtjahr 2026 das obere Ende der bestehenden Prognose übertreffen werden. Dies wäre das achte Jahr in Folge mit einem EBITDA-Wachstum.
Das Unternehmen plant, Anfang Januar eine detaillierte Prognose für 2027 vorzulegen. Das Management geht derzeit davon aus, dass 2027 ein weiteres Rekordjahr wird – selbst wenn sich die Raffinerie-Spreads dem Niveau der Mitte des Marktzyklus annähern sollten –, gestützt auf die Entwicklung in allen vier Segmenten, Übernahmen und organische Investitionen.
Sunoco rechnet für 2026 mit Ergänzungsübernahmen im Gesamtwert von rund 1,5 Milliarden US-Dollar. Einschließlich des organischen Wachstumskapitals soll der Gesamteinsatz für Wachstum 2 Milliarden US-Dollar übersteigen. Das Management bekräftigte sein Mehrjahresziel von jährlich mindestens 500 Millionen US-Dollar für Ergänzungsübernahmen und bezeichnete diesen Schwellenwert für 2027 und darüber hinaus als moderat.
Bei den Betriebskosten im Kraftstoffvertrieb rechnet das Management mit gewissen Schwankungen zwischen den Quartalen, prognostiziert für 2027 jedoch im Vergleich zu 2026 einen Gesamtrückgang, da die Integrationsmaßnahmen bei Parkland fortschreiten.
Risiken und zu beobachtende Faktoren
- Bei den Raffineriemargen ist mit Schwankungen zu rechnen, und der Beitrag von Burnaby könnte sinken, falls sich die Spreads in Richtung oder unter das Niveau der Mitte des Marktzyklus normalisieren.
- Die Volatilität der Kraftstoffpreise könnte die Nachfrage letztlich schwächen. Das Management erklärte, dass Zeitpunkt und Preisschwelle für eine deutlichere Nachfragereaktion weiterhin ungewiss seien.
- Die kanadische Diesel- und Benzinnachfrage verzeichnete angesichts erhöhter Preise und Volatilität bereits einen Rückgang im niedrigen bis mittleren einstelligen Prozentbereich.
- Die Erträge im Pipeline-Geschäft können von Quartal zu Quartal schwanken, bedingt durch Joint-Venture-Beiträge, Vertragspreise, zeitliche Verschiebungen und einmalige regulatorische Faktoren.
- Mögliche Pipeline-Entwicklungen in der Mid-Continent-Region könnten die Ströme veredelter Erdölprodukte verändern. Das Management erklärte jedoch, dass die Auswirkungen hypothetisch bleiben und das Netzwerk von Sunoco gut aufgestellt ist, um auf Veränderungen in den Lieferketten zu reagieren.
Höhepunkte der Analysten-Fragerunde
Die Analysten konzentrierten sich auf die Frage, ob sich die starke Entwicklung von 2026 bei einer Normalisierung der Bedingungen im Raffineriegeschäft fortsetzen kann. Das Management betonte, dass sich alle vier operativen Segmente gut entwickeln, und erklärte, Sunoco hätte seine ursprüngliche Prognose auch unter Annahme eines durchschnittlichen Zyklus im Raffineriegeschäft übertroffen.
Zu Burnaby erklärte das Management, dass man eine eigenständige Raffinerieexpansion nicht aktiv verfolge. Eine weitere Raffinerie käme nur im Rahmen einer umfassenderen Transaktion vergleichbar mit Parkland infrage, bei der attraktive Nicht-Raffinerie-Aktivitäten den primären strategischen Schwerpunkt bilden.
In Bezug auf Akquisitionen stellte das Management Offen als Fortführung der Konsolidierungsstrategie im Kraftstoffvertrieb dar. Die Transaktion sorgt für mehr regionale Dichte, Versorgungsflexibilität und Logistikkapazitäten in Märkten, in denen Sunoco zuvor eine geringere Präsenz hatte.
Das Management hob zudem hervor, dass die Parkland-Integration zu niedrigeren Betriebskosten im Kraftstoffvertrieb im dritten Quartal beigetragen habe. Für 2027 erwartet das Unternehmen trotz möglicher quartalsweiser Schwankungen eine weitere Gesamtkostenverbesserung.
Vollständiges Transkript der Videokonferenz zu den Quartalszahlen
Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz
Ausführungen des Managements
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Desiree, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Sunoco and SunocoCorp Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Grischow, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
Scott Grischow
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me this morning are Joe Kim, President and Chief Executive Officer; Karl Fails, Chief Operating Officer; Austin Harkness, Chief Commercial Officer; Brian Hand, Chief Sales Officer; and Dylan Bramhall, Chief Financial Officer.
Today's call will contain forward-looking statements that include expectations and assumptions regarding Sunoco LP's future operations and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. Please refer to our earnings release as well as our filings with the SEC for a list of these factors.
During today's call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow as adjusted. Please refer to the Sunoco LP website for a reconciliation of each financial measure.
The partnership continued its strong performance in 2026, with a record third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.06 billion, excluding approximately $11 million of onetime transaction expenses. Third quarter distributable cash flow as adjusted was $588 million. On October 22, we announced a distribution of approximately $1.015 for both Sunoco LP common units and SunocoCorp shares. This represents a quarterly increase of 1.25% from the prior quarter, over 10% versus the third quarter of 2025.
Our business continues to generate strong cash flow, resulting in a trailing 12-month coverage ratio of 2.1x. Our balance sheet and liquidity position remains strong. We had $2.3 billion in availability under our revolving credit facility at the end of the quarter, and leverage was approximately 3.5x, well below our long-term target. Finally, we spent $121 million on growth capital and $116 million on maintenance capital.
I want to wrap up my comments by stating that our execution in 2026 has put us in an outstanding financial position. In less than 1 year since closing on the Parkland acquisition, we have already delivered double-digit growth to DCF per common unit, while also getting our balance sheet below our long-term leverage target of 4x. Investors have benefited from this execution through year-over-year distribution growth of over 10%. Finally, we have continued to execute on growth opportunities, including the acquisition of Offen Petroleum for $600 million, which we closed last week.
In summary, we expect our financial position will continue to strengthen, which will provide us with continued flexibility to pursue high-return growth opportunities while maintaining a healthy balance sheet and a secure and growing distribution for our unitholders.
With that, I will turn it over to Karl to walk through some additional thoughts on our third quarter performance.
Karl Fails
Thanks, Scott. Good morning, everyone. As Scott outlined, we delivered record financial results in the third quarter. Our teams continue to optimize gross profit across fuel distribution, operate our midstream assets reliably and capture a favorable market environment at the Burnaby Refinery.
Let me walk through the performance of each segment. Starting with our Fuel Distribution segment. Adjusted EBITDA was $532 million, excluding $9 million of transaction expenses. This compares with $516 million last quarter and $238 million in the third quarter of 2025, both excluding transaction expenses. We distributed approximately 4.2 billion gallons during the quarter and fuel margin was $0.168 per gallon. Volume was up slightly and margin was down slightly from last quarter.
While industry demand indicators were mixed and varied by geography, the volatility in the market continued to provide opportunities for gross profit optimization, especially for a system with our scale. Volatility remained elevated, particularly in diesel, reflecting tight distillate inventories, global supply disruptions, refinery outages and fall maintenance activity. Our scale, supply optionality and commercial capabilities allowed us to respond to those market conditions.
When you step back, our model continues to deliver on what it is designed to do. We do not manage the business for an individual quarterly volume or margin outcome. Instead, we manage for total fuel profit, EBITDA and returns on deployed capital. The third quarter result demonstrates the value of applying that approach across a much larger geography. And more importantly, that geography continues to expand.
As Scott shared earlier, we closed on the acquisition of Offen Petroleum last week. Offen adds approximately 2.5 billion gallons of annual fuel distribution volume and strengthens our presence in the Midwest and Mountain West regions. The Offen business is a great fit with our existing portfolio. Its geographic footprint complements our network, while its logistics capabilities and market density create opportunities to improve supply, transportation and growth in both our branded and unbranded businesses. We look forward to the integration process and welcome the new team members to Sunoco.
In our Pipeline Systems segment, adjusted EBITDA was $166 million compared with $190 million last quarter and $182 million in the third quarter of 2025. Throughput was approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, essentially flat with last quarter and the third quarter of 2025. Sequential reductions were related to lower contributions from our joint ventures and some FERC clawbacks we received in the first half of the year that did not repeat in the second half. However, the underlying characteristics of the segment remain consistent. The segment consists of critical infrastructure assets generating stable income, with targeted opportunities to grow volumes, improve utilization and generate attractive returns from relatively modest capital investments.
Moving on to our Terminals segment. Adjusted EBITDA was $124 million, excluding $2 million of transaction expenses, compared with $115 million last quarter and $76 million in the third quarter of 2025, both excluding transaction expenses. Throughput was approximately 1 million barrels per day, in line with last quarter. Overall results were supported by a strong quarter in our transmix processing business as well as the continued contribution of our larger European network. This is another segment where the operating story is straightforward. The assets continue to generate stable results, and the expanded system gives us additional opportunities to increase utilization, support fuel distribution and deploy growth capital where we have attractive customer-backed returns.
Turning to our Refinery segment. Adjusted EBITDA was $238 million compared with $175 million last quarter. The Burnaby Refinery throughput averaged 57,000 barrels per day during the quarter, slightly up from the second quarter. Refining margin topped $54 per barrel and expenses were below $10 per barrel for the second quarter in a row. The market environment clearly remained favorable, but the financial result also reflects strong execution by the team.
Our priorities at Burnaby remain safe and reliable operations, disciplined expense management and positioning the facility to capture available market opportunities. We understand that refining margins will move over time. Our job is to manage what we can control and operate the facility with a long-term mindset.
Before I wrap up, I want to share a few final thoughts. This was an outstanding quarter, but it is really a continuation of the same operating focus that we deliver quarter after quarter, year after year. We grow and integrate. We operate our assets reliably and efficiently. We fully capture market opportunities, all through disciplined execution of our strategy.
I will now turn it over to Joe to share his final thoughts. Joe?
Joseph Kim
Thanks, Karl. Good morning, everyone. We had an outstanding third quarter. Although 2026 is not quite over, I want to share some perspectives on this year as a whole. 2026 will be another record year for Sunoco. With 3 quarters completed and visibility into the fourth quarter, we're highly confident that we will surpass the top end of our guidance. This will be our eighth consecutive year of EBITDA growth.
Obviously, the Parkland acquisition is a big part of our recent success. We have already delivered approximately a 25% growth in DCF per common unit in less than 1 year of ownership. In addition, our pre-Parkland businesses are performing at a high level. Our portfolio has become more diversified with greater scale and geographic reach. Combining this enhanced portfolio with our proven business model, we're able to succeed in various commodity environments.
2026 is a good example of our ability to deliver outstanding results in a higher price volatile market. Looking further into the future, we believe volatility will persist. Agnostic of the direction of prices, we're confident that we'll deliver strong results in various scenarios.
Let me wrap up with some final thoughts. We've had material accretive growth over the last 5 years, and we expect this to continue. Earlier this year, we provided a multiyear guidance of at least $500 million a year of bolt-on acquisitions. We exceeded this amount in 2026 and we expect this to be a modest bar in 2027 and beyond. In addition, we'll continue to deploy attractive organic growth capital. Bottom line, when you combine our portfolio of stable income streams with acquisitions and investments that are delivering on expected economics, our cash flow will continue to grow. We're in a strong position to continue to increase distributions while executing on accretive growth and maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks. You may open the line for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Citi.
Fragen und Antworten
Charles Douglas Bryant
This is Chad on for Spiro. Just starting off on guidance. You're now trending over the '26 guidance range. Could you just provide kind of your latest thoughts on how the fourth quarter is shaping up versus your record third quarter results? And maybe any outlook into '27?
Joseph Kim
Chad, this is Joe. I think the first takeaway is that 2026 is going to be another outstanding year for Sunoco. Obviously, the refinery has performed very well this year. But even if we had more cracks that were closer to the mid-cycle levels for this year, we would have still surpassed the guidance that we gave back in January. I think the key point is that all 4 business segments are performing very well, and we've delivered on our very high expectations on the Parkland acquisition as well as other smaller acquisitions. But I think the most important takeaway is that 2026 is not an outlier. But instead, we're going to continue to grow our business. We are very well positioned for 2027 to be another record year, even if refining cracks are closer to the mid-cycle levels.
Charles Douglas Bryant
Perfect. And just following up on fuel demand. I guess, kind of in this elevated crude price volatile environment, what are you seeing with respect to the impact on fuel demand and margins as a result kind of going forward?
Austin Harkness
Yes. Chad, this is Austin. Happy to walk you through kind of some of the themes that we're seeing across the portfolio. If you start domestically, demand in the U.S. has been remarkably resilient despite all the fuel price volatility that we've seen recently. So if you look at EIA data, the monthly data shows that diesel is roughly flat on a year-over-year basis, with gasoline demand being off low single digits year-over-year. And then all this is against the backdrop of healthy margins, despite the fact that we've had all this flat price volatility and haven't yet hit the part of the volatility curve where prices durably come off and margins widen. So we feel really good about kind of where the U.S. business is for the segment and kind of the outlook there.
If you move to Canada, -- just as a reminder and point of reference, flat price volatility has actually been amplified in Canada relative to what we've seen in the U.S. So as an example, diesel recently touched USD 7 a gallon equivalent there. And so some of the themes that we had touched on last quarter around demand starting to soften continue into Q3. So diesel and gasoline demand is off low to mid-single digits. But as a reminder, that's -- it's a very strong margin environment. We've seen strong margins and durable margins likely, in large part, owed to the flat price volatility that we're seeing there.
And then lastly, in the Caribbean, that continues to be its own kind of animal. We've got 20-plus markets that we operate in, each with their own demand and margin profiles. What I would just say there is, in general, the theme is, the Caribbean has been a growth engine for us. It will continue to be a growth engine for us, and we expect that to be both on healthy volume growth and margin expansion.
So all that said, if you followed our story, you all know that if demand softens from here, that paints a pretty bullish picture for what the margin environment looks like. And then also, as Joe mentioned in his opening remarks, we've built this portfolio in this segment to perform in a range of economic scenarios. And so we feel really well positioned to grow the segment from an EBITDA and fuel profit standpoint durably into the future.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Moreen with Mizuho.
Gabriel Moreen
$500 million, I guess, is a pretty easily -- easy bogey to clear at this point. But Offen, nonetheless, it was a pretty big transaction for you. Can you just talk about that asset as a fuel distributor versus others and what it may give you? And then also any chance of another acquisition announcement 2 days after earnings like you did with Offen?
Karl Fails
Well, thanks, Gabe. This is Karl. Clearly, we're excited about Offen. And in many ways, Offen is just a continuation of our roll-up strategy, but clearly, it's on a much larger scale. So one of the pillars of our overall fuel distribution strategy is that scale matters. And that is not just from an aggregate basis, but also on a more regional view.
So Offen gives us scale in areas of the U.S. that we haven't necessarily had scale before. So that really leads into the next benefit, which is supply optionality. So that larger scale in the Midwest, Mountain West region really integrates well into our footprint in Canada, in the South, Southwest and a little bit further east. So it provides a lot of options for us to supply and integrate those markets into our much broader network.
And then I think the last thing I'd mention is people. With Offen, we picked up a couple of really good leaders that are going to help us on our much larger portfolio, and we're excited to have them join the team.
Gabriel Moreen
Great. And then maybe if I can just ask in terms of going back to the guidance for the year and the bump, and I guess not giving kind of specific range for where you might wind up for 2026. But just within the larger context of thinking about giving guidance going forward, particularly with Burnaby and the volatility in the backdrop here. Just can you talk about how you're thinking about that in terms of laying out specific parameters for the market and what you want your -- you obviously want to show a ratable growth rate, I think, with the underlying business, and how you would kind of go about communicating that?
Joseph Kim
Yes. Gabe, this is Joe. As far as guidance, we'll follow the same kind of rhythm that we've done in the past. We'll provide guidance in early January of next year. But here's -- I'll kind of reiterate what I said earlier. I want to reemphasize that '26 is not an outlier for us. Yes, cracks are really great this year. At the same time, the point is that even if we assume a mid-cycle type level, we're going to see SUN grow in 2027, and you should expect SUN to grow in 2028.
And that's why we gave that guidance earlier this year that we think that we can do bolt-on acquisitions of at least $500 million. This year, we should end up roughly about $1.5 billion in bolt-on acquisition. And if you add in our organic growth capital, we're well over $2 billion. And I said it in the prepared remarks, I think $500 million a year of bolt-on acquisitions is a modest bar. As we kind of look at all the different geographies we're in, we look at the different sectors we're in and we see what's kind of coming to the market, what's not on the market, what those opportunities are, we feel really good about our growth. And that's all with the foundation that all of our businesses are performing very well.
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Theresa Chen
Given the recent M&A activity across refining and the strength in margins, how are you thinking about the strategic value and long-term fit of Burnaby within your portfolio? Is there a valuation at which you would consider monetizing the asset?
Joseph Kim
Theresa, it's Joe. Here's the way that we look at -- look at the Burnaby Refinery. So I've talked to a lot of you many times. We've -- our strategic intent was never to say that we're going to go buy a refinery and put into the portfolio. But the Parkland acquisition, as I said, we're already 25% DCF growth within a year. So that worked out tremendously for us.
The way that I think you should look at our business is that if you look at our other 3 sectors, Fuel Distribution, our Pipeline and our Terminals segment, they're stable and growing. And the way that I would look at the Burnaby Refinery is it's kind of an asymmetrical upside for us, where whenever cracks blow out, we're going to -- we're going to take that to the bottom line. But even if it goes back to a mid-cycle or slightly below mid-cycle level, we're going to continue to grow our overall business. So that's the way we're looking at it.
As far as opportunistically, are we trying to grow the refining sector? And the answer is no. That's one scenario that I would say that we would look at is if there was an identical type of match to Parkland that came with a fantastic business that also happens to have a refinery, yes, we'll take a look at that. But as far as on a stand-alone segment basis, we like the position we're in, where we have 3 segments that are stable and growing and we have the smaller segment that gives us asymmetrical upside in various environments.
Theresa Chen
And I want to go back to Austin's comment about demand elasticity, taking into account your comment about not hitting the part of the volatility curve that would impact demand and margins at this point. But it does feel that the market has been testing that threshold for some time. Where do you see that inflection point today?
Austin Harkness
Theresa, it's a good question. I think it's one that's on a lot of our minds. But frankly, it's not one that we spend a lot of time thinking about because our guess is likely going to be wrong. I think what we have seen is there's a couple of different themes that we can talk to. One is when there's flat price volatility, the degree and direction which is going to impact demand is really a question of how high does price go and for how long, right? And so to your point, I think we've seen extended periods of pretty significant volatility, but demand has been holding up. As to when it gets -- demand gets impacted, I think, is anyone's guess.
What I would say is we've built the portfolio -- just going back to my earlier comments and Joe's opening remarks, we've built the portfolio to perform in a range of economic conditions. And I think given our scale, the supply chain optionality, the logistics capabilities that Karl referenced earlier, we feel really well positioned regardless of what the macroeconomic future kind of holds, that we're going to be well positioned to grow the segment's EBITDA well into the future.
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Vrathan Reddy with JPMorgan.
Vrathan Reddy
I wanted to start on the Fuel Distribution segment and maybe if you guys could just speak to the strength in margins there, your outlook and the synergies you still have left to capture in that segment?
Austin Harkness
Yes, this is Austin. Just going back to kind of some of the earlier comments that have been shared, I think we feel really good about where margins are right now. I think for those that are maybe newer to the story, we don't really solve for margin or volume independently. It's more a story around fuel profit and optimizing for EBITDA growth on a year-over-year basis.
There's always going to be some quarter-to-quarter volatility, but as mentioned earlier and then I think implied relative to Theresa's question a moment ago, we feel really good about where margins are right now given where flat price volatility has been, and the fact that we haven't yet come -- prices haven't durably come off, which is where we tend to see the most margin expansion.
Vrathan Reddy
And then in Pipelines, is there anything that we should note this quarter, a little softer versus expectations beyond seasonality?
Karl Fails
Yes. I mean, I mentioned a couple of things in my prepared remarks. I don't know that there's a lot more color to add other than -- just like in most of our segments, we look at it on a rolling 12-month sort of basis. So there's always quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, whether it's certain contracts or certain pricing or certain kind of timing variations. But overall, we're really happy with our Pipeline business. And as Joe mentioned earlier, I think both of our midstream segments, Terminals and Pipelines, provide a lot of stability in our portfolio.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And our final question comes from the line of Ned Baramov with Wells Fargo.
Ned Baramov
Could the planned pipeline, which is linking the Midwest, Mid-Con and Gulf Coast refinery supply to Arizona, Nevada and California, together with the recently completed refined products pipeline expansion into Denver and the Denver Airport, could this tighten product balances in the Mid-Con and potentially increase demand for northbound shipments from the Gulf Coast? And if yes, do -- is there a role for Sunoco to play in this rerouting of flows?
Karl Fails
Yes, Ned. I mean the short answer is yes. I mean, there are obviously a lot of hypotheticals in what you've laid out. I know they're -- there are other pipeline companies that have announced projects that could impact the product flows in the middle part of the U.S.
I'd say here's -- our view is if those projects are built and product flows change, we've experienced that a lot in our history, and we are well positioned, particularly in the Mid-Continent, we have our pipeline system that kind of flows north in the Mid-Continent. But I'd extend that to the broader kind of point that Joe made earlier, given our portfolio, I mean, we've intentionally put together the portfolio we have to be able to withstand and take advantage of lots of different product shifts or supply chain shifts, whether they're a tailwind like the hypothetical that you gave us could be or even if they are a headwind, we can find some other way in other parts of our business to continue to grow year after year.
Ned Baramov
Understood. And then a quick housekeeping item on operating expenses in the Fuel Distribution segment. It seems OpEx was well below our forecast. Can you maybe just talk about drivers behind the lower number and how sustainable this is going forward?
Scott Grischow
Ned, this is Scott. I'd offer a couple of comments there. I think, one, being a low-cost operator has always been a focus for us. And the decline you saw in Q3 is another example of that.
Second, the Parkland integration efforts continue, and that also contributed to the sequential decline. I think moving forward, there may be some ups and downs sequentially, but looking forward to 2027, we expect an overall decline relative to '26.
Operator
That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Scott Grischow for closing remarks.
Scott Grischow
Well, thank you for joining us on the call today, and we appreciate the continued interest in Sunoco. Please feel free to reach out if you have any follow-up questions. This concludes today's call.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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