NRP Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Ausschüttung steigt auf 2,34 USD bei sinkenden Schulden

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Natural Resource Partners L.P. erzielte ein Nettoergebnis von 27 Millionen US-Dollar, einen operativen Cashflow von 44 Millionen US-Dollar sowie einen freien Cashflow von 45 Millionen US-Dollar im dritten Quartal 2026.
• Die Gesellschaft steigerte ihre Quartalsausschüttung auf 2,34 US-Dollar je Stammanteil, nach einer Ausschüttung von 0,75 US-Dollar je Anteil, die im August für das zweite Quartal gezahlt wurde.
• NRP tilgte im Laufe des Quartals 13 Millionen US-Dollar an Schulden und gab bekannt, dass die verbleibenden 14 Millionen US-Dollar im nächsten Monat zurückgezahlt werden sollen.
• Das Segment Mineral Rights erwirtschaftete 47 Millionen US-Dollar an quartalsweisem freiem Cashflow und 185 Millionen US-Dollar in den letzten 12 Monaten und blieb damit der wichtigste Cash-Generator von NRP.
• Das Management erwartet auf Basis der aktuellen Lage keine wesentliche Veränderung der Kohlepreise im Jahr 2027. Zudem hieß es, dass schwache Fundamentaldaten bei Soda das Jahr 2027 schwieriger gestalten werden als 2026.
• NRP rechnet erst dann wieder mit Ausschüttungen von Sisecam Wyoming, wenn sich die Soda-Nachfrage erholt oder der geschwächte Markt eine erhebliche Angebotsanpassung erfährt.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Mineral Rights

Höhere Preise und Volumina für Kokskohle bei bestimmten Liegenschaften sowie der zeitliche Ablauf von Zahlungen stützten den Anstieg des Cashflows im Segment gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Diese Vorteile wurden teilweise durch Gebühren aus Mietvertragsanpassungen ausgeglichen, die im dritten Quartal 2025 vereinnahmt wurden.

Auf Kokskohle entfielen etwa 70 % der Lizenzeinnahmen aus Kohle und 45 % des Kohlelizenz-Absatzvolumens im Q3 2026.

Das Management erklärte, dass die weltweite Stahlnachfrage weiterhin schwach sei und die Preise für Kokskohle belaste. Die Bedingungen für Kesselkohle bleiben aufgrund niedriger Erdgaspreise und hoher Kohlebestände in Kraftwerken ebenfalls verhalten. Zudem setzen höhere Dieselkosten die Margen der Betreiber unter Druck.

Soda

Das Nettoergebnis des Segments Soda verringerte sich um 2 Millionen US-Dollar gegenüber dem Vorjahr, was auf niedrigere Verkaufspreise in einem überversorgten internationalen Markt sowie eine schwächere Nachfrage nach Flachglas zurückzuführen ist.

Laut Management fallen die internationalen Preise zwar nicht mehr, liegen aber für die meisten Produzenten weiterhin unter den Produktionskosten. Es wird erwartet, dass die Inlandspreise sinken, wenn Verträge neu verhandelt werden und sich der Aufschlag gegenüber den internationalen Preisen verringert.

Das Unternehmen betrachtet Sisecam Wyoming weiterhin als einen der kostengünstigsten Soda-Betriebe weltweit. Der geschäftsführende Partner strebt Einsparungen an und hält gleichzeitig einen sicheren und zuverlässigen Betrieb aufrecht.

Ausblick des Managements

Das Management gab an, dass die aktuellen Indikatoren nicht auf eine wesentliche Veränderung der Kohlepreise im Jahr 2027 hindeuten, während geopolitische Konflikte die Preise in beide Richtungen bewegen könnten.

Bei Soda rechnet das Management damit, dass eine Neuausrichtung des Marktes eher Jahre als Quartale dauern wird. Anlagenschließungen haben zwar begonnen, aber die Angebotsanpassung verläuft weiterhin langsam. Aufgrund niedrigerer inländischer Vertragspreise dürfte das Jahr 2027 herausfordernder werden als 2026.

Zukünftige Ausschüttungen werden vom Board quartalsweise auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse, des Liquiditätsbedarfs und alternativer Mittelverwendungen festgelegt, einschließlich Anteilsrückkäufen oder opportunistischen Übernahmen.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Eine schwache globale Stahlnachfrage belastet die Preise für Kokskohle.
• Niedrige Erdgaspreise und hohe Kohlebestände in den Kraftwerken belasten das Marktumfeld für Kesselkohle.
• Geopolitische Unsicherheit und höhere Dieselkosten könnten sich auf Rohstoffpreise, Lieferkettenkosten und Betreibermargen auswirken.
• Ein weltweites Überangebot an Soda und eine schwache Nachfrage setzen die Preise weiterhin unter Druck.
• Mit einer Wiederaufnahme der Ausschüttungen von Sisecam Wyoming wird erst gerechnet, wenn sich die Nachfrage erholt oder das Angebot deutlich zurückgeht.
• Der vierteljährliche freie Cashflow und die Ausschüttungen können von Periode zu Periode erheblich schwanken.

Highlights der Analysten-Fragerunde

Das Management lehnte es in Beantwortung einer Frage zu potenziellen Anteilsrückkäufen ab, seine Schätzung des inneren Werts von NRP offenzulegen.

NRP erklärte zudem, dass sich sein Ansatz bezüglich CO2-Speicherung, Solar, Geothermie und anderen Chancen im Bereich erneuerbarer Energien nach dem Abbau der Bilanzverschuldung nicht geändert hat. Die Gesellschaft sucht weiterhin nach Pächtern, die Projekte auf ihren Flächen entwickeln können.

Vollständiges Transkript des Earnings Calls

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners L.P. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Tiffany Sammis, Investor Relations. Tiffany, please go ahead.

Tiffany Sammis

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners third quarter 2026 conference call. Today's call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website.

Joining me today are Craig Nunez, President and Chief Operating Officer; Chris Zolas, Chief Financial Officer; and Kevin Craig, Executive Vice President.

Some of our comments today may include forward-looking statements reflecting NRP's views about future events. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to materially differ from our forward-looking statements. These risks are discussed in NRP's Form 10-K and other Securities and Exchange Commission filings. We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason. Our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures. Additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our third quarter press release, which can be found on our website.

I would like to remind everyone that we do not intend to discuss the operations or outlook for any particular coal lessee or detailed market fundamentals.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Craig Nunez, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

Craig Nunez

Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning, everyone. NRP generated $45 million of free cash flow in the third quarter of 2026 and $166 million of free cash flow over the last 12 months before the investment in our soda ash business earlier this year. Last quarter, I said that [ barring ] something unforeseen, we intended to raise distribution significantly in November. We are delivering on that. A decade of work to pay down debt and derisk the partnership has brought us to the point where we can pay out free cash flow beyond the unitholder tax liability. We generated $45 million of free cash in the quarter. We paid down $13 million of debt, leaving $32 million or $2.34 per unit available to distribute.

Our free cash flow can move around a lot from quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. Our Board will decide on distributions each quarter weighing our results, our liquidity needs and other uses of cash, which could include unit repurchases or opportunistic acquisitions. If the Board decides to retain cash rather than pay it out, we will hold ourselves to the same test as always, more than $1 of intrinsic value per unit for every dollar we keep.

Last quarter, I said our Mineral Rights segment was our most dependable cash generator. It delivered again this quarter, producing $47 million of free cash flow and $185 million over the last 12 months. Spot prices for metallurgical coal bumped up modestly in the quarter before pulling back. Global steel demand remains weak, and that keeps a lid on prices. Similar story with thermal coal. Natural gas is cheap, power plants are sitting on plenty of coal, and we do not see anything on the horizon to change that. The geopolitical backdrop remains bumpy and diesel is up more than 75% this year which raises costs all along the supply chain and squeezes operator margins. For 2027, nothing we are watching points to a material change in coal pricing. If geopolitical conflicts drag on, prices can move in either direction, and I will not pretend to know which.

Now to Soda Ash. The picture is the same as a quarter ago, too much supply, too little demand and no quick fix. Increased natural soda ash exports from China are pushing older synthetic plants to modernize, shutdown or both. Producers are doing what you would expect. Running plants at lower rates, shedding higher-cost capacity, cutting discretionary spending and hunting for efficiencies. International prices have stopped falling, but have settled at levels that are below the cost of production of most producers. As we explained last quarter, domestic prices should move lower as contracts reset and the premium over international prices narrows. That will make 2027 harder than 2026.

Closures are beginning to occur, however, but slowly. We continue to think rebalancing the market will take years, not quarters. Our investment in Sisecam Wyoming is -- holds one of the lowest cost of soda ash operations in the world and low cost is what carries you through a downturn. Our managing partner continues to aggressively pursue cost savings while keeping operations safe and reliable and protecting the plant's competitive position. This cycle may take years to turn, but we are confident in the quality of the asset and its ability to generate competitive returns when the market returns to balance. So to sum it up, Mineral Rights keeps generating strong free cash flow. We have $14 million of debt left to repay next month, and we are finally at the point where we can return the cash this business generates to you, our partners, subject to the Board's quarterly decision.

With that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

Christopher Zolas

Thank you, Craig. In the third quarter of 2026, NRP generated $27 million of net income, $44 million of operating cash flow and $45 million of free cash flow. Of these consolidated amounts, our Mineral Rights segment generated $37 million of net income, $46 million of operating cash flow and $47 million of free cash flow. When compared to the prior year third quarter, our Mineral Rights segment net income decreased $4 million primarily due to increased DD&A expense. Operating cash flow and free cash flow each increased $2 million as compared to the prior year period, primarily due to higher met coal pricing and volumes at certain properties and timing of payments, partially offset by lease amendment fees we received in the third quarter of last year. Regarding our met thermal coal royalty mix, met coal made up approximately 70% of our coal royalty revenues and 45% of our coal royalty sales volumes for the third quarter of 2026.

For our Soda Ash segment, net income for the third quarter decreased $2 million compared to the prior year quarter. This decrease was driven by lower sales prices due to the oversupplied international soda ash market and weakened demand for flat glass. Operating and free cash flow was flat when compared to the prior year period due to not receiving a distribution of third quarters of 2025 and 2026. NRP does not expect distributions from Sisecam Wyoming to resume until the sodas market demand rebounds where there is a significant supply response to this depressed market.

Moving to our corporate and financing results. Net income, operating cash flow and free cash flow for the third quarter of 2026, each improved $1 million as compared to the prior year period. These improvements were due to lower debt resulting in lower interest costs and less cash paid for interest. Regarding our quarterly distributions, in August, we paid the second quarter distribution of $0.75 per common unit. Also during the third quarter of this year, we fully repaid the remaining $13 million balance on our Opco credit facility. As a result, and consistent with our communications throughout the year, the partnership increased the distribution to $2.34 per common unit with respect to the third quarter of 2026.

In our recent earnings release, we have included a reconciliation of this Q3 distribution amount from the operating cash flow we generated in the third quarter.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Robert Lu.

Unknown Attendee

This is Robert Lu. I'm an independent investor in NRP for the last few years. I'm curious, you talked about the potential for share buybacks when you saw that the intrinsic value is below or above the current market price. I'm curious, would you be able to share your thoughts on that and where that might be?

Craig Nunez

No. We will not give you guidance on what we think is the intrinsic value of our units. But thank you for your support.

Unknown Attendee

Yes. Thank you for following through on what you said you do and excited about the news today.

Craig Nunez

You bet. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Balsam with Yellow Gate Capital.

Fragen und Antworten

Steven Balsam

I just wanted to say congratulations on reaching this point. It's really rare to see such a long-term decision taken and made and follow through consist really been fantastic [indiscernible] on long-term sale trend feels great to get to this point. I'd like to just one question regarding...

Craig Nunez

Thank you for being with us for a long time and supporting us. We couldn't have done it without all of our partners.

Steven Balsam

You bet. I was hoping maybe you guys could comment a little bit on potential activities that you're looking at, whether it be carbon sequestration or any other sort of actions that your debt that are going on with respect to the various properties.

Craig Nunez

I would tell you that our activities with respect to CO2 sequestration, solar, geothermal, all of the renewable type activities that we look at they're not changing at all as a result of the change in our capital structure and the change in our cash allocation strategy, capital deployment strategy here now that we've paid off our debt or about to pay off all of our debt. There's no changes to that. We're attempting to maximize the acreage that we have, find lessees that are willing to come in and and develop projects on our acreage for all the various types of initiatives. And we've been doing that even before we've reached this point with our -- with respect to our capital structure.

Steven Balsam

Excellent. I love the approach and really happy with the approach taken on it as far. And I realize there's nothing -- no statements made about future distribution like the way it was set out in the financials being that variable distribution paid out of free cash flow feels great. Congratulations, again.

Craig Nunez

Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Craig Nunez for closing remarks.

Craig Nunez

Thank you, operator. And again, thank all of you for your support over the years. We're still on the journey. But being able to raise our distribution today and pay out a larger share of our free cash flow now that we have practically delever the entire balance sheet. It was a joint effort, and we couldn't have done it without you. So now we got to look ahead and add value in the next period. So with that, thank you, and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.