Independence Realty Trust (IRT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Vermietung verbessert sich, Prognose bestätigt

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Independence Realty Trust meldete für das 3. Quartal 2026 einen Kern-FFO von 0,29 US-Dollar je Aktie und ein Same-Store-NOI-Wachstum von 1,6 %; beides lag im Rahmen der Erwartungen des Managements.
• Das konsolidierte Mietwachstum bei gleichbleibenden Mietbedingungen erreichte 2,8 %, das stärkste Ergebnis seit fünf Quartalen. Die Mietanpassungen bei Neuverträgen verbesserten sich im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 210 Basispunkte auf minus 0,6 %, während die Anpassungen bei Mietverlängerungen auf 4,6 % stiegen.
• Die durchschnittliche Auslastung hielt sich bei 95,0 %, und die Mieterbindung stieg im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 240 Basispunkte auf 60,5 %. Das Interessentenvolumen stieg im Jahresvergleich um 11 %.
• IRT bestätigte die Kern-FFO-Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 von 1,13 bis 1,15 US-Dollar je Aktie und behielt die Mittelwerte seiner Ausblicke für das Same-Store-Umsatz- und NOI-Wachstum bei.
• Das Management erwartet, dass die anstehende Fusion mit Centerspace auf verschuldungsneutraler Basis zu einem Zuwachs des Kern-FFO je Aktie für 2027 von etwa 5 % führen wird, unterstützt durch identifizierte Synergien in Höhe von 24 Millionen US-Dollar.
• IRT schloss in den ersten neun Monaten 1.707 wertsteigernde Renovierungen mit einer durchschnittlichen ungehebelten Eigenkapitalrendite (ROI) von etwa 15 % ab. Das Unternehmen bleibt auf Kurs für 2.200 Renovierungen im Jahr 2026.

Wichtige Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Die Strategie von IRT, während der Hauptvermietungssaison den Mietpreisen Priorität einzuräumen, reduzierte die Gewährung von Zugeständnissen bei Neuverträgen im Vergleich zum 2. Quartal um beinahe die Hälfte. Die Angebotsmieten lagen etwa 3 % höher als zu Beginn des Jahres 2026.

Atlanta verzeichnete mit Mietanpassungen bei Neuverträgen unter gleichen Bedingungen von 2,1 % die stärkste Verbesserung im Jahresvergleich – ein Plus von 755 Basispunkten gegenüber Q3 2025. Oklahoma City erzielte 2,9 %, Raleigh-Durham 2,5 % und Columbus 1,5 %. Denver blieb unverändert, während Dallas mit minus 3,5 % im negativen Bereich blieb, sich jedoch im Jahresvergleich um 70 Basispunkte verbesserte.

Das Management gab an, dass Atlanta, Raleigh und Nashville verbesserte Vermietungstrends zeigten. Dallas, Tampa und Denver standen weiterhin unter angebotsbedingtem Druck und erforderten die Gewährung von Zugeständnissen. In Denver trug eine stärkere Absorption in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2026 zur Stabilisierung des Marktes bei.

Das Unternehmen schloss in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 1.707 Wohnungsrenovierungen mit einer durchschnittlichen ungehebelten Eigenkapitalrendite von etwa 15 % ab. Die durchschnittliche Renovierungsdauer verringerte sich von etwa 25 Tagen auf 17 Tage, und das Management rechnet für 2027 mit einem steigenden Renovierungsvolumen.

Zudem schloss IRT die erste Phase der Einführung von Gemeinschafts-WLAN früher als geplant ab. Das Programm generierte im 3. Quartal Einnahmen von 2,3 Millionen US-Dollar und dürfte 2027 ein volles Jahr zu Umsatz und NOI beitragen. Das Unternehmen plant, WLAN im Jahr 2027 auf mindestens 7.000 weitere Einheiten auszuweiten, darunter 4.000 IRT-Einheiten und 3.000 Centerspace-Einheiten.

Nach Quartalsende erwarb IRT den Anteil seines Joint-Venture-Partners an Mustang, einer Wohnanlage mit 275 Einheiten in Las Colinas (Dallas). Die stabilisierte wirtschaftliche Kapitalisierungsrate wird voraussichtlich bei 5,9 % liegen, verglichen mit einer geschätzten Rendite im ersten Jahr von etwa 5,2 % bei den derzeitigen Auslastungs- und Zugeständnisniveaus.

Prognose des Managements

IRT bestätigte die Kern-FFO-Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2026 von 1,13 bis 1,15 US-Dollar je Aktie. Zudem verengte das Unternehmen die Bandbreiten für das Same-Store-Umsatz- und NOI-Wachstum um unveränderte Mittelwerte. Die Prognosen für das Ergebnis je Aktie (EPS) und den FFO enthalten nun die bisher angefallenen fusionsbedingten Kosten – hauptsächlich für Fairness Opinions, Rechts- und Einreichungsgebühren –, schließen die anstehende Centerspace-Transaktion ansonsten jedoch aus.

Die aktualisierte Akquisitionsprognose liegt bei 266 Millionen US-Dollar, was die Konsolidierung von Mustang widerspiegelt. Ohne die Centerspace-Fusion rechnet IRT im Jahr 2026 mit keinen weiteren Übernahmen.

Das Management schätzte den aktuellen Mietüberhang (Rent Earn-in) für 2027 auf etwa 80 Basispunkte, verglichen mit null bis minus 10 Basispunkten im Vorjahr. Die Prognose für das Gesamtjahr 2027 soll zusammen mit den Ergebnissen des 4. Quartals 2026 im Februar 2027 veröffentlicht werden.

Für das 4. Quartal plant IRT, der Auslastung während der saisonal schwächeren Phase auslaufender Mietverträge Vorrang einzuräumen. Das Ziel des Managements ist es, die Auslastung bis Jahresende um 30 bis 40 Basispunkte zu steigern, um das Portfolio so zu positionieren, dass in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2027 ein Mietpreiswachstum angestrebt werden kann.

Update zur Fusion mit Centerspace

Dem Management zufolge liegt der Integrationsprozess von Centerspace weiterhin im Zeitplan. IRT macht Fortschritte bei den Genehmigungen der Kreditgeber zur Übernahme von abgesicherten Verbindlichkeiten in Höhe von etwa 500 Millionen US-Dollar mit einem durchschnittlichen Zinssatz von rund 3,5 %.

Das Unternehmen geht davon aus, dass die Transaktion auf verschuldungsneutraler Basis den Kern-FFO je Aktie für 2027 um etwa 5 % steigern wird und vom ersten Tag an wertsteigernd auf den NAV wirkt. Zu den erwarteten Vorteilen gehören identifizierte Synergien von 24 Millionen US-Dollar, etwa 3.200 Centerspace-Einheiten, die sich für wertsteigernde Renovierungen eignen, sowie 10.000 Einheiten, die für Gemeinschafts-WLAN infrage kommen.

IRT gab an, dass die Übernahme nach Synergien und einmaligen Kosten einer nominalen Kapitalisierungsrate von 7,3 % entspricht. Die 10.500 Einheiten von Centerspace würden das kombinierte Portfolio um mehr als 30 % auf rund 44.400 Mietwohnungen erweitern.

IRT geht davon aus, dass die zuvor identifizierten Veräußerungen in Höhe von 140 Millionen US-Dollar, die erforderlich sind, um die Fusion verschuldungsneutral zu halten, im 1. Quartal 2027 abgeschlossen werden. Das Management bezeichnete die Synergieschätzung als konservativ, wies jedoch darauf hin, dass einige operative Vorteile, darunter Mieterversicherungsprogramme, stufenweise eingeführt werden und nicht sofort greifen.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Dallas, Tampa und Denver stehen weiterhin unter angebotsbedingtem Druck und erfordern die Einräumung von Zugeständnissen.
• Der jüngste operative Druck bei Centerspace konzentrierte sich auf Colorado, wo ein starkes Wettbewerbsangebot die Auslastung und Preisgestaltung belastete.
• Die Vorteile der Fusion hängen von einer erfolgreichen Integration, den geplanten Vermögensveräußerungen und der rechtzeitigen Realisierung operativer Synergien ab.
• Höhere Renditen von US-Staatsanleihen haben einige Käufer auf dem privaten Markt dazu veranlasst, höhere Kapitalisierungsraten anzustreben, obwohl das Management erklärte, es sei noch unklar, ob die Cap-Rates tatsächlich abgeschlossener Transaktionen steigen werden.
• Die Rabattstrategien der Wettbewerber bleiben in der saisonal schwächeren Vermietungsperiode ein potenzieller Belastungsfaktor.

Wichtigste Punkte aus der Analysten-Fragerunde

Das Management sieht in den nächsten 12 bis 18 Monaten einen Weg zu einer Nettoverschuldung im Verhältnis zum EBITDA im niedrigen 5-fachen Bereich durch EBITDA-Wachstum, ohne auf zusätzliche Vermögensverkäufe angewiesen zu sein. Wertsteigernde Renovierungen bleiben aufgrund ihrer durchschnittlichen Rendite von etwa 15 % die bevorzugte Verwendung des einbehaltenen Cashflows.

Auf dem aktuellen Aktienkursniveau haben Aktienrückkäufe laut Management eine höhere Priorität als ein zusätzlicher Schuldenabbau, wobei die Kapitalallokation von den Rahmenbedingungen abhängt, sobald Mittel verfügbar werden.

Die Forderungsausfälle gingen von Q1 bis Q3 in allen Märkten zurück. Die Forderungsausfälle in Atlanta lagen im 3. Quartal bei 1,4 %, verglichen mit etwa 5 % einige Jahre zuvor, so das Management.

Das Management erklärte, die Nachfrageindikatoren blieben konstruktiv, wobei das Interessentenvolumen im Jahresvergleich um 11 % zulegte. Zudem gab es über die normale Saisonalität hinaus keine Anzeichen, die Anlass zur Sorge für 2027 gäben, wobei darauf hingewiesen wurde, dass detaillierte Annahmen zu Auslastung, Mietwachstum und Forderungsausfällen mit der Februarguidance vorgelegt werden.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Quartalsergebnissen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Independence Realty Trust's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available in the Investors section of the company's website shortly after the call concludes.

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Stephanie Krewson-Kelly, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets. Ms. Krewson-Kelly, please go ahead.

Stephanie Krewson-Kelly

Thank you, and good morning.

Today's call will focus on IRT's third quarter results and stand-alone outlook with a brief update on the pending merger with Centerspace. We will provide more detail on the combined company after the merger closes.

On the call with me today are Scott Schaeffer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Sebra, President and Chief Financial Officer; Janice Richards, Executive Vice President of Revenue Strategy; and Jason Lynch, Senior Vice President of Investments.

Before we begin, please note that there may be forward-looking statements made during this call. These forward-looking statements reflect IRT's current views with respect to future financial performance, future events and the proposed merger with Centerspace. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Such statements are made in good faith pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and IRT does not undertake to update them, except as may be required by law. Please refer to IRT's press release, supplemental information and filings with the SEC, including the definitive joint proxy prospectus for further information about these risks.

A copy of IRT's third quarter earnings press release and supplemental information is attached to IRT's current report on Form 8-K, which is available in the Investors section of our website. They contain reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures referenced on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

With that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott Schaeffer.

Scott Schaeffer

Thanks, Stephanie, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

I'm pleased to report another solid quarter. Core FFO per share of $0.29 and same-store NOI growth of 1.6% were both in line with our expectations, and we are reaffirming the midpoint of full year guidance for both metrics. Our rate over occupancy strategy this leasing season worked as intended. During the third quarter, asking rents held firm and we cut concession use on new leases nearly in half from second quarter levels. As a result, new lease trade-outs on like-term leases accelerated by 210 basis points sequentially and increased 310 basis points year-over-year. The recovery is now broad-based. Over the past year, new lease spreads on like-term leases improved in 9 of our 10 largest markets, led by Atlanta and lead volume was up 11%. Renewal rents improved 200 basis points year-over-year. Average occupancy of 95% was flat sequentially and resident retention improved. Taken together, blended rents on like-term leases grew 2.8% in the quarter, our best result in 5 quarters.

During the quarter, we continued to recycle capital, selling the property in Memphis and subsequent to quarter end, acquired our joint venture partner's interest in the Mustang, a 275-unit newly constructed community on the last Lakefront multifamily development parcel in the Las Colinas submarket of Dallas. As we close out 2026, favorable market tailwinds and company-specific growth initiatives position IRT for meaningful earnings growth in 2027. First, supply-demand fundamentals continue to improve and support higher effective rents. New deliveries in our markets have fallen by more than half since peaking in 2024 to about 2.5% of inventory this year, and CoStar projects a further decline in 2027. Demand continues to outpace national averages and absorption remains strong.

Second, with sticky inflation and higher interest rates, the cost of homeownership continues to favor renting over ownership, generating more demand for rental apartments. Third, people continue to migrate to our non-gateway markets motivated by employment opportunities and are seeking a better quality of life, which includes overall affordability. IRT's portfolio offers residents the attractive solution of high-quality housing at monthly rents that are materially below new construction rents. Fourth, we completed our initial rollout of community Wi-Fi ahead of plan, and it will contribute a full year of revenue and NOI to 2027 results. Finally, our value-add program remains an important low-risk way to capture higher market rents and drive core FFO growth.

During the first 9 months of this year, we completed nearly 1,800 value-add renovations at an average unlevered return on investment of approximately 15%, and we remain on track to complete 2,200 renovations for the year. We are always refining our renovation processes and have further reduced the average unit turn time from approximately 25 days to now 17 days. This shortened turn time allows us to complete more renovations without meaningfully impacting occupancy. Accordingly, we expect to increase the number of units renovated during 2027, which will further drive NOI and earnings growth.

Turning to Centerspace. The pending merger builds on the momentum I just outlined and amplifies it across 3 dimensions: growth, value and scale. First is growth. We expect the transaction to be approximately 5% accretive to 2027 core FFO per share on a leverage-neutral basis and accretive to day 1 NAV, driven largely by the operating synergies of IRT's more cost-efficient platform. More importantly, it enhances our longer-term earnings profile. Beyond the $24 million of identified synergies, approximately 3,200 of Centerspace apartment units are right for our value-add program and 10,000 units will be added to our community Wi-Fi program, extending these 2 revenue-enhancing initiatives across a larger combined portfolio.

Second is value. After accounting for synergies and onetime costs, we are acquiring Centerspace at a 7.3% nominal cap rate, a meaningful discount to its net asset value and at a price per door that is well below replacement cost. Third is scale. Centerspace's 10,500 units will increase our unit count by more than 30% to approximately 44,400 apartment homes in markets that are demand-rich and supply constrained. The merger also brings our G&A load in line with our larger cap peers. As a final note, since the merger announcement, both Fitch and S&P have reaffirmed our investment-grade ratings, and I am pleased to report that multiple independent proxy advisory firms have recommended that IRT stockholders vote in favor of the merger. Our special meeting is November 10, and we encourage all stockholders to vote their shares.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

James Sebra

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

I'll start with a brief update on our integration with Centerspace. While we are still in the early stages, the overall process is on schedule. Lender consents for the assumption of approximately $500 million of Centerspace's secured debt with an average interest rate of approximately 3.5% are progressing as planned. On the people side, we have identified the go forward and transition teams and execute employment letters accordingly. Our technology integration is planned and ready to launch shortly after closing. Additionally, the $140 million of dispositions that we identified to keep the Centerspace merger leverage neutral are progressing and expected to close in the first quarter of next year. All of this is pointing to a successful integration post-closing and securing the synergies we've identified.

Turning to our third quarter results. Core FFO per share of $0.29 was in line with our expectations. Same-store NOI grew 1.6%, also in line with expectations as a 2% increase in same-store revenue was partially offset by a 2.5% increase in operating expenses. Same-store revenue growth reflected a 60 basis point increase in average effective monthly rents, a 16% increase in other property revenue driven by $2.3 million of Wi-Fi revenue and stable bad debt of approximately 90 basis points.

As Scott mentioned, we prioritized rate over occupancy for the duration of our peak leasing season. Stable asking rents, which are up approximately 3% since the start of the year and the demand environment that required fewer concessions drove our effective rents higher during the third quarter. We maintained stabilized occupancy of 95% during the quarter and resident retention increased 240 basis points sequentially to 60.5%. Improving fundamentals continue to support better pricing power in the quarter. For like-term leases, new lease trade-outs were negative 60 basis points in the quarter, improving 210 basis points sequentially and 310 basis points year-over-year.

Looking at like-term new leases by market, Atlanta was our largest market, registered the biggest improvement year-over-year with new lease trade-outs of positive 2.1%, a 755 basis points improvement over the third quarter of 2025. Oklahoma City delivered positive 2.9% and Raleigh-Durham and Columbus saw new lease spread of positive 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively. In Denver, new lease trade-outs were breakeven, up 360 basis points year-over-year. In Dallas, new lease trade-outs were negative at 3.5%, improving, albeit by 70 basis points over last year.

Renewal lease spreads remained strong, reflecting solid demand, high resident satisfaction and our data-driven approach to maximizing revenue growth. Renewal spreads on like-term leases were 4.6% in the quarter, up 50 basis points from the second quarter and 200 basis points year-over-year. As a result, like-term blended rent growth of 2.8% was 150 basis points higher sequentially and 270 basis points higher than a year ago.

For same-store operating expenses, the 4% increase in controllable expenses was driven primarily by higher contract service costs associated with the Wi-Fi rollout. Without the Wi-Fi service fees, the increase in controllable expenses would have been 3% year-over-year. Recall that our Wi-Fi program requires no capital from IRT. Noncontrollable expenses were flat year-over-year as a 17% decrease in insurance offset a 3% increase in real estate taxes. Please note that 2025 real estate taxes were low due to real estate and franchise tax refunds in the prior year.

Turning to capital allocation. During the first 9 months of the year, we completed 1,707 unit renovations at an average ROI of approximately 15%. Value-add activity continues to be an attractive investment opportunity to support long-term earnings growth. We expect to increase future renovation volume to capture higher rent premiums as market rents continue to recover. As Scott mentioned, subsequent to quarter end, we acquired our joint venture partner's interest in the Mustang and began consolidating this 275-unit community on our balance sheet. Our basis represent a 5.9% economic cap rate on stabilized NOI.

We did borrow $79 million on our line of credit to repay the in-place construction loan, which improves the earnings profile of the property for the remainder of 2026 and beyond. The previous construction loan was bearing interest at SOFR plus 275 basis points, whereas our line of credit bears interest at SOFR plus 77 basis points. The consolidation is reflected in our updated acquisition guidance of $266 million. Other than our pending merger with Centerspace, we do not forecast any additional acquisitions this year.

On the capital recycling front, in September, we sold a property in Memphis for $55.8 million. We used the proceeds to delever the balance sheet ahead of the Mustang closing in October. Our balance sheet remains flexible with strong liquidity. As of September 30, our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA was 6.2x, down from 6.5x last quarter. We had approximately $492 million of liquidity, 86.5% of our debt was fixed or hedged at a weighted average effective interest rate of 4.3%, and we have no significant debt maturities until 2028.

Heading into the fourth quarter, leasing is following its normal seasonal pattern with demand still better than in prior years. Without getting into monthly details, asking rents are remaining flat with blended lease spreads continuing their year-over-year improvement. Like the third quarter, double-digit growth in other property revenue led by Wi-Fi will continue to drive fourth quarter revenue growth. With respect to our Wi-Fi program, we plan to expand it to at least another 7,000 units in 2027, consisting of 4,000 IRT units and 3,000 units from Centerspace. With expirations seasonally light, we're building occupancy now, which positions us well to push rate in 2027.

Turning to guidance. Our EPS and FFO per share guidance now reflect merger-related costs incurred to date, consisting primarily fairness opinions, legal and filing fees. Otherwise, our guidance does not incorporate the pending merger with Centerspace. We are reaffirming our core FFO per share range of $1.13 to $1.15. We are also narrowing our same-store revenue and NOI growth ranges around unchanged midpoints. Overall, we are on track to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance, and we look forward to completing the merger with Centerspace. We will provide full year 2027 guidance with our fourth quarter results in February 2027.

Scott, that's it. Back to you.

Scott Schaeffer

Thanks, Jim.

In closing, our year-to-date results are solid, and we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance. Lease rates are improving as fundamentals strengthen across our markets, and IRT is building earnings momentum heading into 2027. We expect the proposed Centerspace merger to amplify that momentum, creating a larger IRT with more runway for low-risk internal growth through value-add and community Wi-Fi backed by our disciplined operating platform. On behalf of IRT's management team, I want to thank our stockholders for their support and every IRT and Centerspace team member for their hard work and dedication.

Operator, please open up the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Fragen und Antworten

Austin Wurschmidt

Just given the improvement in leasing spreads versus last year that you talked about in your prepared remarks, I think you said that continued into the fourth quarter. Can you share how you expect your 2027 earn-in to shake out and just how that compares versus last year?

James Sebra

Yes. Good question, Austin. Thank you. I think we continue to see good trajectory, as I said in my prepared remarks, we're really getting away from trying to give monthly details on these calls. We continue to see great trajectory in the blended spreads, kind of a 220 basis points improvement year-over-year in third quarter and certainly continued to kind of perform in Q4. And when it comes to our earn-in, that estimates in earn-in kind of give or take about 80 basis points today. That earn-in last year was about either anywhere between 0 and minus 10 basis points.

Austin Wurschmidt

That's helpful. And then just second question, recognizing you're a little bit limited in what you can say about the Centerspace transaction. But first, can you just provide some thoughts about how maybe the results last night stacked up relative to what you had underwritten? And anything that would change that 5% accretion? And then can you also just share when those synergies are expected to kick in?

Scott Schaeffer

Sure. Yes. Centerspace's third quarter results was very consistent with what we underwrote and obviously, within their guidance range. The pressure for them is concentrated in Colorado, where competitive supply certainly weighed on occupancy and pricing. Every other region grew revenue and same-store NOI. It's not a one quarter thesis for us. Obviously, we're acquiring what we believe is a well-located portfolio on an attractive basis. And it's exactly where our operating platform and value-add programs will make a difference over time.

And I think on the synergy side, we underwrote the synergies to be 5%. And it's everything is within our control. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, the G&A stuff and the people is certainly the big driver of it and all the operating synergies associated with property insurance and other kind of things are all things that will just kind of start to happen as the portfolio comes on to our platform. Obviously, like renters insurance programs, the synergies is assuming that, that kind of happens and gets billed through time. It's not all day 1. So we think the synergy number is still very conservative off the run rate.

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Wolfe with Citi Research.

Eric Wolfe

For the fourth quarter, can you just talk about your strategy on the rate and occupancy side? So how much occupancy do you want to build going into next year's peak leasing season? And why do you think that specific level is the right level going into next year?

James Sebra

Yes. Obviously, the right level is obviously in the eyes of the beholder. I would say if you look at kind of the strategy that we communicated around last year by building occupancy in Q4 so we could attract or achieve rate growth in the first half of '27 and be able to maintain it, that certainly worked, it really benefited us. As you know, the seasonal kind of expiration curve for leases in the Q4 is the lowest that it generally throughout the year. So it's the right time to prioritize occupancy and not focus so much on rate growth. I think for us, our goal is to try to build it 30, 40 basis points of occupancy into the end of the year, and we think that's a good level. I mean we'll obviously continue to try to grow it as much as we possibly can. You've heard Scott certainly say over the years, occupancy between 95% and 96% is probably the right level. And if we start seeing our occupancy building over 96% we'll certainly move back to a great priority.

Eric Wolfe

Got it. That's helpful. And then you talked about the earn-in. I think you said 80 basis points. I guess any other thoughts, I know it's still early on sort of the more predictable pieces of growth for next year, whether that's the other income, the Wi-Fi income, how that should trend or bad debt to the extent that there's a certain amount of bad debt improvement you think is predictable or the contribution from the value-add program. Just any thoughts on some of the other pieces that are going to be contributing to growth next year?

Scott Schaeffer

Yes. We'll obviously give guidance in February 27. So I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. I would say that the other things that are currently being planned out is obviously the incremental Wi-Fi program of about 7,000 units, 4,000 IRT units and 3,000 Centerspace units. Obviously, you will have good revenue growth coming from this year's Wi-Fi program in the first half of next year. And we expect those kind of 4,000, call it, 7,000 total units will start to hit, call it, in the kind of late second quarter next year, maybe a little bit earlier depending on how fast we get it moving, but that will certainly provide a lot of revenue growth in the back half of next year. As for the rest of it, occupancy trajectory, rental rate growth and bad debt, we'll leave all that for the February guidance update.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jason Wayne with Barclays.

Jason Wayne

So just with the occupancy-led strategy, you're looking into next quarter, should we expect concession usage to remain elevated versus recent quarters? And which markets are you seeing the heaviest concession usage in still today?

Scott Schaeffer

I'll ask Janice to answer that one.

Janice Richards

Yes. I think seasonal -- we'll continue to follow seasonal patterns and leverage concessions. We were able to minimize concession uses during our peak season, and we'll follow those seasonal patterns throughout the rest of the year. I think we're still seeing some concessions in the Tampa, Dallas and Denver market as we're working through supply challenges, and we'll continue to optimize where we can and continue to pull back when demand is stable.

Jason Wayne

Got it. And then -- so as those concessions burn off, could that be a tailwind to same-store revenue growth kind of, I guess, in the second half next year?

Scott Schaeffer

For sure. Certainly, as concessions burn off, depending on the size and amount. Obviously, you never know who's going to renew and who's going to move out. And if you need to give a new concession on somebody moves out. But yes, the expectation would be just like we're experiencing this year, nice renewal growth that's coming from just that concession burn off.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

James Feldman

Great. I appreciate the update on your leverage level. Can you just talk more about target leverage, where you think that's going to go, kind of the road map to get there? And then as you just think about uses of capital between Wi-Fi build-out, acquisitions, development, anything else, share buybacks, how we should think about a, the target level and b, getting there?

James Sebra

Sure. Jamie, obviously, our goal was to kind of get to the mid-5s net debt to EBITDA in Q4. We'll probably be a little bit higher than that with just the Mustang that's kind of taken over in early October. But we see certainly a path towards low 5 net debt to EBITDA in the next kind of 12 to 18 months, just simply through EBITDA growth, no extraneous kind of events like selling assets and delevering. So again, we think the leverage trajectory and path is certainly achievable.

In terms of capital allocation, obviously, you've heard us say multiple times, the value-add continues to be our best use of capital. So kind of all of our retained earnings or free cash flow that's available. It's been going into the value-add program, and it continues to produce really good returns. Outside of that, any capital coming back through a joint venture redemption, a desire to sell an asset, we will evaluate at that time for what at that time, the best opportunity is. Today, where the stock price is, it certainly screens that buybacks are a higher priority than debt deleveraging. But again, it just depends on the situation that the circumstance at the moment.

James Feldman

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just thinking about market conditions versus the start of the year or your September update, can you just help us understand which are kind of acting better than you thought they would, which are a little slower? And then I guess, focusing on Denver specifically, I know you mentioned it as kind of a drag in the CSR portfolio. What are your thoughts on that time line for recovery there or bottoming out there?

Janice Richards

Yes. So we're seeing strong recovery in the Atlanta market. Year-over-year, we saw a 50 basis point increase in our blended rent trade-out on all leases and new lease trade-outs were positive for the first time in 2 years and average occupancy increased year-over-year. So excited on the Atlanta front. Raleigh following that, blended trade-outs have improved, and we've reduced average concessions on new lease by more than half in Q2, and we'll follow seasonal patterns throughout the year -- for the rest of the year. And Nashville is also showing some really positive lease trade-out improvement year-over-year, driven by new lease trade-outs.

For the communities where we're still seeing some headwinds in supply, we've got Dallas. We're still seeing positive trade of 110 basis points year-over-year there. So we're excited to see that continue as it starts to accelerate. And then Tampa working through the supply as well. Absorption is steady in both markets. And then I'll turn it over to Jason to dive into the Denver market specifically.

Jason Lynch

Yes. This is Jason. On Denver, we're seeing -- we've seen absorption really pick up in the first half of this year and kind of outsized relative to historical performance. That is helping to stabilize the market and to help to raise rental rate growth momentum there. So we're seeing that as a positive trend being in next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Abramowitz with Deutsche Bank.

Peter Abramowitz

Just wanted to ask first, I guess, in terms of the interest rate backdrop, you had a couple of transactions in the quarter. But just from kind of a more macro higher-level perspective, what have you seen in terms of early changes in terms of the private capital markets? And any changes that you're seeing on the ground? Just curious for some color there.

Jason Lynch

Yes, sure. So we've seen some live deals where the cap rates have obviously buyers have looked to push up cap rates as treasuries have pulled back around at 5% range or we still haven't seen whether or not that will translate into actual printed cap rates moving higher, and we'll continue to follow that.

Peter Abramowitz

All right. I appreciate that. And then just as a follow-up, just kind of curious, maybe some high-level thoughts on the demand environment. Certainly, the supply narrative, and we can look at CoStars or the RealPages for how much supply is dropping off in your markets, and that's been a big part of sort of the debate for a while now. But just curious from a demand perspective, anything that's kind of surprising you on the ground either way? Or just curious for your sort of high-level thoughts on employment growth, household formation and how you're thinking about that and how it feels as you consider your 2027 budget?

Janice Richards

Yes, we're seeing positive trajectory with our lead volume being up 11% year-year and that's converting well for us. We -- no surprises, only positive trajectory. And so we're going to continue to optimize on that through '27 as we build occupancy and get ready for that pricing power.

Scott Schaeffer

Yes. A little bit of additional color. I think the job growth and the population growth, we're certainly seeing it continue to develop. And there's nothing that we see other than just kind of seasonality that would give us any kind of cause or pause for 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ami Probandt with UBS.

Ami Probandt

I appreciate your commentary on concessions. But I'm wondering how concessions at your competitors are trending and if that could be a pressure point as we move into the slower demand season, the seasonally slower demand season. So do your competitors have occupancy levels that you think enable them to start focusing on rate as well? Or at what point do you think the concessions can be mostly burned off across your MSAs?

Janice Richards

Yes. So overall, we're starting to see some stabilization in our market occupancy over that 90% to 92% average occupancy that allows for pricing power to kick in. I can't speak to exactly what they're going to do on their strategy with concessions. However, we continue to monitor on a daily, weekly basis to optimize at that floor plan level and create -- continue to create the value that we saw in Q3.

Scott Schaeffer

Yes. I mean, Ami, as I kind of alluded to earlier, our occupancy strategy over rate kind of heading into this kind of slower expiration period simply is a goal of being able to set ourselves up for a stronger 2027, at least to push rate in the first half of '27. I think the expectation we have and what we see on the ground is different developers, different owners follow different strategies. Right now, we haven't seen a significant increase in concessions. Certainly, one here, one there might be ebbing and flowing. But ultimately, our goal is to continue to kind of work in and function in the market that we're focused on while still achieving our overall guidance and our overall revenue strategy.

Ami Probandt

Great. And apologies if I missed this. Were there any moving pieces that changed within your maintained same-store revenue guidance midpoint in terms of blends, occupancies, other income, et cetera?

Scott Schaeffer

So no, I think ultimately, they're all pretty much kind of continue to move forward with what our original kind of guidance was that we updated in early -- sorry, early August. I was going to say early July, early August. No, I think generally speaking, everything is continuing to kind of line up with our expectations. We thought that Q4 was going to kind of develop the way we see it developing, and we're excited to finish out the year strong and deliver the midpoint of our guidance.

Operator

Our next question comes from Wesley Golladay with Baird.

Wesley Golladay

Can you talk about what your expectations are for year 1 yield at the Mustang and an overall stabilized yield?

Jason Lynch

Yes. So the overall stabilized yield that we're expecting at the Mustang is about 5.9%.

Scott Schaeffer

That's an economic cap rate.

Jason Lynch

Economic cap rate, and that's after burn-off of concessions that were used during the lease-up of the asset. Year 1 is probably around 5.2% or so based on current concession levels and occupancy.

Wesley Golladay

And it looks like the Tisdale had a nice increase in the leasing activity in 3Q. Can you talk about how rate is tracking versus your expectation?

Jason Lynch

I think rates are tracking in line to what our expectations were. Concessions are being used, but we're -- like Janice mentioned, we're working on trying to pull those back as best as we can through the lease-up.

Scott Schaeffer

Yes. I would say just a little bit of additional color. The Tisdale, we originally anticipated that it would be, call it, stabilized occupancy by the, I think, end of Q1 of next year. So we certainly see it in that trajectory still.

Operator

Our last question comes from Ann Chan with Green Street.

Ann Chan

So just quickly going back to the bad debt. Could you share whether any markets have seen an increase in bad debt in the last few quarters and where Atlanta is currently trending versus pre-COVID?

James Sebra

Good question. I would say that from looking at the data here across our markets, no increases in bad debt in any markets from Q2 -- from Q1 to Q2 to Q3, they're all moving down. I don't remember Atlanta pre-COVID. I would tell you, I think a few years ago, Atlanta was plus or minus 5% bad debt. In the third quarter, their bad debt was 1.4%.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Scott Schaeffer for closing remarks.

Scott Schaeffer

Thank you all for joining us this morning. We appreciate your continued support of IRT and look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming NAREIT conference in Atlanta. Have a good day all.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.