Ardmore Shipping (ASC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Q4-MR-TCE erreicht $57.600/Tag

Wichtigste Erkenntnisse

• Ardmore Shipping wies für das dritte Quartal 2026 einen bereinigten Gewinn von 63 Millionen US-Dollar bzw. 0,40 US-Dollar je Aktie und ein bereinigtes EBITDA von 28,8 Millionen US-Dollar aus.
• Das Unternehmen beschloss eine Quartalsdividende von 0,27 US-Dollar je Aktie, was zwei Dritteln des bereinigten Gewinns entspricht und die 16. Quartalsbardividende in Folge darstellt.
• MR-Tanker erzielten im dritten Quartal TCE-Raten von 27.000 US-Dollar pro Tag. Die Buchungen für das vierte Quartal lagen im Durchschnitt bei 57.600 US-Dollar pro Tag bei einem Buchungsstand von 45 %, während jüngste Abschlüsse 80.000 US-Dollar pro Tag überstiegen.
• Chemikalientanker erzielten im dritten Quartal 23.300 US-Dollar pro Tag und im bisherigen vierten Quartal 30.100 US-Dollar pro Tag bei einem Buchungsstand von 60 %. Die Abschlüsse für Handysize-Chemikalientanker lagen im vergangenen Monat im Durchschnitt bei fast 50.000 US-Dollar pro Tag.
• Der operative Cash-Break-even verharrte bei 10.800 US-Dollar pro Tag, was angesichts der aktuellen Charterraten einen erheblichen operativen Hebel bietet. Die Flottenauslastung (On-Hire) erreichte im Laufe des Quartals 99 %.
• Das Management erklärte, dass geopolitische Handelsverschiebungen, geringe Produktbestände und längere Transportdistanzen die Tankernachfrage weiterhin stützen, während die Alterung der MR- und Handysize-Flotten das effektive Angebot begrenzt.

Finanzielle Kerndaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Ardmore ging mit etwa 85 % seiner Flotte im Spotmarkt in das vierte Quartal, wodurch das Unternehmen gut positioniert ist, um vom kräftigen Anstieg der Tankerraten zu profitieren. Das Management verglich die aktuellen Marktbedingungen mit einem Wintermarkt, noch bevor die saisonale Phase voll begonnen hat.

Das Unternehmen führte die stärkere Tankernachfrage auf gestörte Handelsrouten, hohe Raffineriemargen und gesunkene Produktbestände zurück. Laut Management entsprach der Rückgang der weltweiten Produktlagerbestände mehr als 600 MR-Ladungen. Zudem lagen die europäischen Kerosinbestände bei etwa der Hälfte ihres Niveaus zu Jahresbeginn, während US-Benzin und -Diesel unter ihren Fünfjahresdurchschnitten lagen.

Auch längere Handelsrouten erhöhen die Flottenauslastung. Die Exporte aus dem US-Golfküstengebiet nach Europa und Asien stiegen im Jahresvergleich, während sich die MR-Naphtha-Volumina in Richtung Osten verfünffachten. Das Management fügte hinzu, dass eine höhere Exportaktivität aus China, Korea und Indien weitere Frachtbewegungen stützen könnte.

Das Flottenangebot bleibt altersbedingt begrenzt. Das MR-Auftragsbuch macht 18 % der bestehenden Flotte aus, während die Hälfte der aktuellen MR-Tanker innerhalb von fünf Jahren älter als 20 Jahre sein wird. Bei Handysize-Tankern liegt das Auftragsbuch bei 6 %, und 75 % der Flotte werden innerhalb von fünf Jahren das Alter von 20 Jahren überschreiten. Das Management erklärte, dass strengere Sicherheits-, Umwelt- und Compliance-Anforderungen die effektive Auslastung älterer Schiffe reduzieren.

Ardmore verkaufte ein 2013 gebautes Schiff für 34,3 Millionen US-Dollar, wobei die Übergabe Mitte Oktober abgeschlossen wurde. Zudem übte das Unternehmen Optionen für zwei weitere Handysize-Tankerneubauten aus, womit sich der Gesamtauftrag auf sechs Schiffe erhöht, deren Auslieferung ab 2028 geplant ist. Die Schiffe sind für den Transport von Erdölprodukten, Spezialchemikalien, Speiseölen und alternativen Kraftstoffen ausgelegt.

Prognose des Managements

Das Management schätzte die Investitionen (CapEx) für die Flotte für den verbleibenden Teil des Jahres 2026 auf 2 Millionen US-Dollar und prognostizierte 13 Millionen US-Dollar für 2027.

Das Unternehmen gab keine TCE-Prognose für das gesamte Quartal über die aktuellen Buchungen hinaus ab. Das Management betonte, dass Ratenprognosen weiterhin unsicher seien, obwohl jüngste MR-Buchungen von über 80.000 US-Dollar pro Tag auf ein anhaltendes Momentum über den für das vierte Quartal gebuchten Durchschnitt von 57.600 US-Dollar pro Tag hinaus hindeuten.

Ardmore plant, weiterhin zwei Drittel des bereinigten Gewinns auszusschütten und gleichzeitig Flottenerneuerung, opportunistische Schiffsverkäufe und potenzielle Übernahmen auszubalancieren. Laut Management können diese Kapitalallokationsinstrumente zu unterschiedlichen Zeitpunkten im Marktzyklus und nicht gleichzeitig eingesetzt werden.

Risiken und Beobachtungspunkte

• Die TCE-Zahlen für das vierte Quartal decken nur 45 % der verfügbaren MR-Tage und 60 % der Chemikalientanker-Tage ab, wodurch die Ergebnisse Schwankungen der Spotraten ausgesetzt sind.
• Das Management räumte ein, dass Dauer und Ausmaß des aktuellen Ratenumfelds schwer vorherzusagen sind.
• Geopolitische Störungen stützen zwar längere Handelsrouten, tragen jedoch auch zu einem anspruchsvollen operativen Umfeld und sich verschiebenden Frachtströmen bei.
• Ältere Schiffe sehen sich unter Sicherheits-, Umwelt- und Compliance-Standards einer zunehmenden Überprüfung durch erstklassige Befrachter ausgesetzt, was ihre effektive Auslastung verringert.
• Das Neubauprogramm über sechs Schiffe sorgt für zusätzliche künftige Kapitalverpflichtungen, die sich in einem effektiven Verschuldungsgrad von 32 % widerspiegeln.

Höhepunkte der Analysten-Fragerunde

Die Analysten konzentrierten sich darauf, ob die außergewöhnliche Cash-Generierung und die Vermögenswerte die Prioritäten der Kapitalallokation von Ardmore verändern könnten. Das Management erklärte, das Unternehmen werde einen flexiblen Ansatz beibehalten und Dividenden, potenzielle Aktienrückkäufe, selektive Flotteninvestitionen und opportunistische Verkäufe älterer Schiffe kombinieren.

Zur Flottenstrategie erklärte das Management, Ardmore fühle sich wohl dabei, mit der aktuellen modernen Flotte und einer hohen Spotmarkt-Exposition in den Wintermarkt zu gehen. Das Unternehmen sei bereit, ältere Schiffe über weitere Zyklen hinweg zu halten, würde jedoch Verkäufe in Betracht ziehen, wenn Käufer ausreichend attraktive Preise böten.

Das Management erklärte zudem, dass die Eincharterung von Schiffen in die Flotte weiterhin Teil des strategischen Instrumentariums von Ardmore bleibe, obwohl das Unternehmen nach der Rückgabe eines Schiffes derzeit keine eingecharterten Schiffe habe. Jede künftige Eincharterung müsse den Standards von Ardmore in Bezug auf Schiffsqualität, technisches Management und Kundenkompatibilität entsprechen.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz zu den Quartalsergebnissen

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Note that today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing 1 888660-6345 164 517-4150 and entering passcode 402 19. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer at Ardmore Shipping.

Gernot Ruppelt

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Garnet. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our third quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And I'll now turn the call back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll provide a brief overview of our third quarter highlights. Thereafter, I will hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning to Slide 4, which covers our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong result with third quarter adjusted earnings of $63 million or $0.40 per share. Geopolitical dislocation continues to reshape trade patterns, absorbing tonnage and boosting TCE rates and even stronger momentum has been building into the fourth quarter.

We continue to execute on our capital allocation policy -- part more is declaring a dividend of $0.27 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings. During the third quarter, we agreed to sell 1 of our 2013 Baltimore for $34.3 million, and the ship was subsequently delivered in mid-October. And as previously announced, we exercised options for 2 Handysize tanker newbuildings bringing our total order to 6 vessels with delivery dates starting from 2028.

Moving on to our TCE performance on Slide 5. Our third quarter bookings reflect the firm market during what is a seasonally slower period. And moving into the fourth quarter, rates have been accelerating meaningfully. Our MR tankers earned $27,000 per day for the third quarter and $57,600 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 45% booked. As you can see in the chart here, these levels are roughly double the TCEs achieved during the same period last year. And if you were to zoom in further, our recent bookings are north of $80,000 per day. Our chemical tankers earned $23,300 per day for the third quarter and $30,100 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 60% booked. With some additional context, our Handysize chemical tankers, the focus of our new building program have concluded average charter rates of nearly $50,000 per day over the last month. Our operating leverage is exceptionally strong with TCE earnings at a multiple of our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

Turning to Slide 6. Here, we outlined the company's approach to capital allocation whereby we continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in fleet renewal and growth. At the start of the year, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. And today, we are declaring our 16th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. As mentioned, we have contracted 6 Handysize tanker newbuildings with delivery starting in 2028. These highly flexible assets can carry the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and alternative fuels.

This year, we sold 2 older vessels at very attractive prices. While last year, we had acquired 3 modern secondhand MRs at prices around 30% below current market levels. And we retained considerable financial flexibility across a wide range of market conditions with an operating cash breakeven of just $10,800 per day and ample debt capacity. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart for the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 8 and the market outlook. Starting on the top right, Global seaborne crude shipments are essentially back to pre-conflict levels. The chart on the bottom left shows crack spreads averaging over $60 per barrel on WTI and over 50 on Brent, up from the $20 range at the start of the year. This is supporting robust refining activity as depicted in the bottom right. The IEA forecast global throughput to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter with further growth through 2027, supporting higher product exports and product tanker utilization. .

Moving to Slide 9 and the inventory restocking opportunity ahead. Disruption to crude and product flows has created supply gaps in several regions. Inventories have been drawn, leaving product stocks at multiyear lows. The chart on the top right shows European jet fuel now half of what it was at the start of the year, sitting well below its 5-year range. Looking to the 2 charts on the bottom, U.S. gasoline and diesel are both below their 5-year lows as well. Rebuilding these stocks will add an incremental layer of product tanker demand. Just to frame this, the decline in global product stocks equates to over 600 MR equivalent cargoes.

Additionally, several countries are planning to increase their strategic reserves, potentially further lengthening the restocking cycle and corresponding product tanker demand. Turning to Slide 10 and how geopolitical shifts in refinery dislocation are reshaping global trade. Energy security remains a fundamental priority with government's diversifying import sources and securing seaborne supply chains. At the same time, refining and consumption are increasingly dislocated. The continued trend of closures in the West is being replaced by new capacity in the East, extending voyage distances. On top of these structural drivers, trade disruption is absorbing fleet capacity. The map shows a few representative examples.

Volumes from the U.S. Gulf to Europe and Asia have risen significantly year-on-year, and MR Naptha East is up fivefold. Moving to Slide 11. I where we highlight the favorable supply dynamics. Starting on the left with the MR segment. The order book represents 18% of the fleet. And within 5 years, half of all existing MRs will be over 20 years old. Moving to the Handysize segment on the right, which, as a reminder, is the focus of our newbuilding program, the order book is just 6% of the current fleet and within 5 years, 75% of Handy's will be over 20 years old that 17 million tons approaching the scrapping window to warping the 1 million tons on order. Slide 12 further shows how the aging fleet impacts effective supply.

Given rigorous safety, environmental and compliance standards, older tankers are increasingly scrutinized by top-tier charters. As the chart highlights, utilization meaningfully declines as the vessel ages. And even when older vessels are not scrapped, effective supply is reduced accordingly. Moving now to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. We continue to generate robust cash flow by optimizing TCE performance and tightly managing costs, supporting our low operating cash breakeven level of $10,800 per day. were $11,700 per day, including dry dock and CapEx. Looking ahead, including the forward commitments associated with our newbuilding program, effective leverage stands at 32%.

Turning to Slide 15. Again, highlighting our third quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40. The EBITDA reconciliation in our fourth quarter guidance can be found in the appendix. Turning to Slide 16 for operational highlights. -- far well-being continues to be a top priority, and we acknowledge the key role our seafarers play in an increasingly challenging operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved an impressive 99% on-hire utilization, supported by our very active Ship to Shore collaboration with innovation continuing to drive strong efficiencies. For the remainder of the year, fleet CapEx is estimated at $2 million, and we forecast $13 million for 2027. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18 in summary. Ardmore is well positioned and capitalizing on a strong market. We are capturing TCE rates at large multiples of our cash breakeven with MR earnings so far in the fourth quarter of almost $60,000 per day and recent bookings point even higher as discussed earlier on the call. Near-term disruption and inventory restocking needs create strong immediate drivers in addition to compelling structural long-term demand growth and an aging fleet. We are distributing 2/3 of adjusted earnings to shareholders while renewing the fleet through targeted investment in line with the company's dynamic approach to capital allocation. As always, our decisions are guided by our long-term strategy strong governance and a commitment to creating value through market cycles. We now welcome your questions. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from John Chappell at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead, Jon.

Fragen und Antworten

Jonathan Chappell

Thank you. Okay. Slide 6 is your policies and priorities that you've had in place for a few years, and they've obviously served you quite well. but we're in incredible times right now. And the cash flow generation, the asset value movements we've never seen before in this industry. Does that change the way that you think about these priorities into '27 and beyond? And if not, the priorities themselves but maybe the timing of how you look to introduce them or potentially accelerate them?

Gernot Ruppelt

That's a terrific question, John. And I'd like to think we have been and we'll continue to approach that topic in a very nonbinary way, where as a business, we continue to make sure that we return capital to shareholders. Well, of course, there's any business, you also have to invest in your future. But those different levers don't have to be always pulled simultaneously or within any given quarter, but rather need to be looked at kind of through the game, through the cycle. And for us, we'll continue to adjust those levers on right now our accelerated dividend payout ratio at a different time, we embraced share buybacks on the fleet renewal side, very well-timed acquisitions in the second hand market last year and equally some well-timed new building constructions that we've committed to at pre-year-end prices and then layered as various tranches at options throughout the year in all those situations kind of really moved early before the market and then also continuing to assess opportunities to take some value off the table by pruning some of our older ships if we're seeing sort of the right price and we'll continue to approach it exactly in that fashion.

Jonathan Chappell

Okay. And then as a follow-up, again, extraordinary, typically, when you have this kind of quarter-to-date level rate, I would tend to fade them because typically, they don't last. They're not strong for this long. However, as you insinuated in 1 of your product tanker peers spoke to last week. They're actually continuing to march higher. So is there any way to kind of give us a sense of where you sit today relative to that average? And then given the inventory slides, especially that Bart laid out, maybe how to think about magnitude and direction from the rest of this quarter, understanding it's very difficult to predict. So maybe just kind of where we are today versus the average is a good way to start.

Gernot Ruppelt

Yes, acknowledging some of those challenges of a true prediction, but at the same time, grounding us and some of the facts that we are seeing -- that we're observing today. Just looking at the market around you, it feels like a winter market already before it is even winter. If you look at refining margins, we had, of course, some data update during the slide show. But in very simple terms, refining margins today are double of what they were before the situation in Iran kicked off earlier this year. And those levels are yet again double of what they would have been at the start of the decade. So none of this is set to change anytime soon.

Atlantic product markets remain extremely tight, as you can see with some of the significant product deficiencies in some markets. And then at the same time, some barrels, of course, coming out of the Middle East. And you see an overall structural Chinese refining surplus, probably kicking in to an even higher gear. If you consider the recent publication of higher export quotas from Korea -- sorry, from China, at the same time, you also saw that Korea made some announcements with regard to expanding the export -- export capacities. And India typically gets quite busy this time of the year as well. So we continue to see these significant swings. Overall, the barrels are back, but the efficiency is not. And you, of course, now see product tankers continuing to connect these inefficient commodity markets in a very efficient way.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next will be Omar Nokta at Clarkson.

Omar Nokta

Pretty a good update. Yes. So clearly, 3, even though it was softer quarter-over-quarter, it was still historically very good and then 4Q is looking off the charts as you were highlighting. I wonder if you just ask about maybe somewhat related to John's first question about capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistically selling the 2013 built MR. How do you think about replacing those earnings or taking the cash and using that for a separate purpose. What are you thinking about that? When we -- in the past few quarters, you've invested in the handies via the new buildings. How are you thinking about the MR specifically? Would you look to recycle the cash into more new buildings on the MR side? Or would you look to acquire potentially modern vessels? Or is it just sit back and leave as ?

Gernot Ruppelt

Right now, we're very happy with the position that we're in, Omar. We have a very modern fleet, all equals back 85% -- roughly 85% spot as we're heading into the winter market here. As far as the future is concerned, I believe the market will guide the way. There are times to be just patient and let you position play out. And then there are other times to be decisive as we have demonstrated at the start of last year at again at the start of this year. And we continue to have a very live interactive discussion internally and with our Board about where the pockets of value closely tracking price dislocation again, bringing it back to the overall levers of our capital allocation policy, balancing returning capital to our shareholders reinvesting in the business in the long run, but also in line with what is our long-term strategy and what has been our long-term strategy that underpins those decisions.

So kind of combining a very deliberate long-term strategic focus while being nimble and opportunistic for instance, if there's an opportunity to prune some of these older ships. I will say the ARPA feet, as you see also the shift that we sold, these are fine ships, all eco built by or owned by Armor for longer than a decade with various efficiency upgrades already undertaken, and we are fully prepared and would be very happy to take them through various cycles to come and hold them for another 7 years. And we're preparing any additional upgrades and maintenance programs and driving schedules with that baseline assumption. But if somebody really wants to come and present a strong number, of course, on an older ship. We obviously have to listen. But that's probably not today, we're very happy approaching the winter as it is now and letting our position play out here.

Omar Nokta

Okay. That's fair. So basically go into the winter, see how that goes and perhaps revisit as we get into next year if I'm moving you correctly?

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I think there's a lot of really important interesting immediate drivers that are just really starting to play out on the market. I think there's the broader picture with with the relationship with -- between the bigger ships and MRs and MRS just really stepping into that normalized relationship, kind of taking their rightful place there. And I think looking ahead as where the world is going, not to belabor the state of the world, but at times like these, this concept of having access to energy supply chain resilience or that becomes for state players as a matter of natural security and at an enterprise level for our customers, protecting these incredible refining profits through access to tonnage, we'll continue to mean 1 thing and 1 thing only, maritime assets, essential assets and the market is probably just in the process of finding how to price those assets correctly, and we're quite happy to see that play out. .

Omar Nokta

Yes, certainly. And maybe if I could, just another question. I wanted to ask about the chartering and tonnage something that you have done generally in the past as we think about opportunities there, you've got a very strong balance sheet, plenty of flexibility with all the liquidity you have and the cash. How do you think about maybe looking to more on the TCN side by going long and bringing vessels in and go short in terms of charting them out in the spot market. Is that something that's interesting, just given kind of where the market is today in terms of the separation between what a TC and what cost versus what a spot rate would get you today? And then obviously, in the context of having a very robust balance sheet.

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I feel like these are levers we have used in the past and something we would continue to explore at the moment, well, we have actually redelivered a ship and currently don't have any ships on time charter in, but that could always be something that's very much in the mix for Armor. Of course, we're not only looking for a particular number with time short and relationships. It is also important that we have strong compatibility on brand, on technical management, on the quality of the ships, on the quality of the technical management company behind that vessel as we then move it into the auto tonnage list that it is fully up to our expectations because we have a strong following among our community of customers and charters and maintaining that is also really important for us. So in principle, very much part of the playbook, even though that might not be the case today. .

Operator

At this time, we have no other questions registered, which will conclude the question-and-answer session as well as our conference call today. I would like to thank everybody for taking the time to attend and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good afternoon.