ADT Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Umsatz steigt um 4 %, während Thrive-Deal voranschreitet

Wichtigste Kernaussagen

• ADT meldete für das 3. Quartal 2026 einen Umsatz von 1,35 Milliarden US-Dollar, was einem Anstieg von 4 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr entspricht. Die Erlöse aus Installationen, Produkten und sonstigen Leistungen stiegen um 32 % auf 265 Millionen US-Dollar.
• Das bereinigte EBITDA ging um 2 % auf 665 Millionen US-Dollar zurück, da höhere Allgemeine und Verwaltungskosten, einschließlich Investitionen in Technologie, die Vorteile aus den Installationserlösen teilweise überwogen.
• Das bereinigte Ergebnis je Aktie stieg um 4 % auf 0,24 US-Dollar. Der bereinigte freie Cashflow, einschließlich Zinsswaps, legte um 4 % auf 217 Millionen US-Dollar zu.
• Im bisherigen Jahresverlauf überstieg der bereinigte freie Cashflow 1 Milliarde US-Dollar, was einem Plus von 46 % entspricht und bereits über dem Wert des gesamten Geschäftsjahres 2025 liegt.
• ADT stimmte einer Übernahme durch Thrive Holdings für 10 US-Dollar je Aktie in bar zu, was das Unternehmen mit einem Eigenkapitalwert von rund 7,6 Milliarden US-Dollar und einem Unternehmenswert von 15,3 Milliarden US-Dollar bewertet.
• Aufgrund der anstehenden Transaktion zog ADT seine zuvor veröffentlichte Finanzprognose zurück und veranstete keine Fragerunde für Analysten.

Zentrale Finanzdaten

Geschäfts- und operative Entwicklung

Die Brutto-Umsatzfluktuation bei Kunden lag bei 13,1 % im Vergleich zu 13,0 % im Vorjahr. Höhere Kündigungen wegen Nichtzahlung wurden teilweise durch weniger freiwillige Kündigungen ausgeglichen. Die Amortisationszeit der Umsätze der letzten 12 Monate blieb mit 2,3 Jahren stabil.

Der Bruttozuwachs an wiederkehrenden monatlichen Umsätzen belief sich bei 195.000 Brutto-Neuzugängen auf insgesamt 12,1 Millionen US-Dollar. Die Neuzugänge bei direkt professionell installierten Einheiten und RMR verbesserten sich gegenüber dem Vorjahr, während das Händlervolumen und der Kauf von Kundenkontenpaketen zurückgingen.

ADT erwarb im Quartal etwa 8.000 Kundenkonten für 9 Millionen US-Dollar in bar. Zudem führte das Unternehmen Benachrichtigungen bei ungewöhnlichen Aktivitäten in ADT+ ein, trieb Pilotprojekte für die Anwesenheitserkennungstechnologie von Origin AI voran, weitete ADT Blu auf Walmart.com aus und startete ADT Partner Services. Über die letztgenannte Initiative gab ADT bekannt, Ende November 2026 mit der Installation und Wartung ausgewählter Produkte für Apple Retail und dessen Kunden zu beginnen.

ADT beendete das Quartal mit 228 Millionen US-Dollar an Zahlungsmitteln und Zahlungsmitteläquivalenten sowie ohne Inanspruchnahme von revolvierenden Kreditlinien. Der Nettoverschuldungsgrad lag beim 2,7-Fachen des bereinigten EBITDA, verglichen mit dem 2,8-Fachen im Vorjahr. Das Unternehmen schüttete im Quartal 64 Millionen US-Dollar und im bisherigen Jahresverlauf 748 Millionen US-Dollar über Dividenden und Aktienrückkäufe an die Aktionäre aus.

Prognose des Managements

ADT zog seine zuvor verabschiedete Finanzprognose aufgrund der anstehenden Übernahme durch Thrive Holdings zurück. Das Management gab keinen neuen Ausblick auf Umsatz, Ergebnis oder Cashflow ab.

Das Unternehmen gab bekannt, dass es den Abschluss der Transaktion vorbehaltlich üblicher Vollzugsbedingungen, der Zustimmung der ADT-Aktionäre und der US-kartellrechtlichen Genehmigung für das erste Quartal 2027 erwartet.

Risiken und wichtige Aspekte

Die Transaktion mit Thrive Holdings unterliegt weiterhin Vollzugsbedingungen, einschließlich der Zustimmungen der Aktionäre und der US-Kartellbehörden. Thrive beabsichtigt, die reine Barübernahme durch eine Kombination aus Eigenkapital, Fremdkapital und Vorzugskapital zu finanzieren.

Die Fusionsvereinbarung enthält eine Go-Shop-Frist bis zum 28. November 2026. ADT gab bekannt, keine Entwicklungen während dieses Prozesses offenzulegen, es sei denn, eine Offenlegung wird angemessen oder ist gesetzlich vorgeschrieben.

Zu den operativen Faktoren gehören erhöhte Kündigungen wegen Nichtzahlung, höhere Allgemeine und Verwaltungskosten, die teilweise mit Technologieinvestitionen zusammenhängen, sowie Vergleichseffekte aus der Veräußerung des Geschäftsbereichs Mehrfamilienhäuser im Oktober 2025.

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Vollständiges Transkript der Telefonkonferenz

Ausführungen des Managements

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the ADT Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand the conference over to Elizabeth Landers, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Elizabeth Landers

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Speaking on today's call are Jim DeVries, ADT's Chairman, President and CEO; and Jeff Likosar, our Chief Financial Officer. As you know, on October 29, we announced that ADT has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings. In consideration of the pending transaction, we will not be taking questions on today's call.

Additionally, we will not be providing financial guidance and are withdrawing previously issued guidance.

This morning, we issued a press release and presentation summarizing our third quarter results. Both are available at investor.adt.com. During today's call, we'll reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in the earnings presentation on our website. Unless noted otherwise, all financials and metrics discussed reflect continuing operations.

Our remarks today also include forward-looking statements that fall within the safe harbor provisions provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, including statements regarding the proposed transaction. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are described in the earnings presentation and in our SEC filings, including the risks related to timing and completion of the proposed transaction. Actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings for more details.

We also refer you to the information in our press release regarding the proxy statement ADT intends to file with the SEC in connection with the proposed transaction and regarding participants in the solicitation. Investors and stockholders are urged to read the proxy statement when it becomes available. And now I'm happy to turn the call over to Jim.

James DeVries

Thanks, Elizabeth, and good morning, everyone. I'll keep my remarks brief this morning, focusing on the transaction we announced last Thursday, and then Jeff will walk through our third quarter results.

On Thursday, October 29, we announced that we have entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, which our Board of Directors unanimously approved, ADT stockholders will receive $10 per share in cash upon completion. $10 represents a premium of 46% to ADT's unaffected closing share price on October 27 and 52% to our 30-day volume-weighted average share price ending on that date. The agreement values ADT at approximately $7.6 billion in equity value and $15.3 billion in enterprise value.

We believe this transaction represents an important next chapter for ADT, bringing together our more than 150 years of security experience, nationwide service network and trusted customer relationships with Thrive Holdings' long-term capital and engineering capabilities. I am pleased with this outcome, which recognizes the value built by our more than 12,000 employees and dealer partners, our long-standing commitment to providing peace of mind and our continued advancement of ADT's capabilities and technologies. Our progress and this transaction deliver an attractive cash premium to our stockholders.

ADT's leadership in smart home security is built on a legacy of trust, long-standing customer relationships and the dedication of our people. And importantly, for our customers, ADT's data and privacy policies will remain unchanged and no new data sharing will occur without customer permission.

We anticipate this transaction to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by ADT's stockholders and receipt of U.S. antitrust approval. This is an all-cash transaction, and Thrive expects to finance it through a combination of equity, debt and preferred equity.

As outlined in our announcement, the merger agreement includes a go-shop period that runs through November 28. As is customary, we do not intend to disclose developments with respect to that process unless and until we determine disclosure is appropriate or otherwise required.

Until the transaction closes, ADT will continue to operate independently as a public company. Importantly, with this transaction, ADT's focus has not changed. We remain committed to serving our customers, supporting our dealers and partners and executing our key initiatives.

During the quarter, we continued to make progress across our 3 core differentiators: unrivaled safety, premium customer experience and innovative offerings. We introduced Unusual Activity Alerts in ADT+, advanced pilots of our Origin AI presence sensing technology, expanded ADT Blu to Walmart.com and launched ADT Partner Services through which we will install and service select products for Apple Retail and its customers beginning later this month.

Before I turn the call over to Jeff, I want to thank our employees, our dealers and partners and the first responders we work alongside every day. Your commitment is what has earned ADT the trust of millions of customers for more than 150 years. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Likosar

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll take the next few minutes to describe our third quarter with all comparisons year-over-year unless I note otherwise.

In summary, I'm very pleased to report that ADT again delivered strong results with continued revenue growth, solid earnings and robust cash generation, all in line with our expectations. Our consistent performance, while we continue to invest in our business, underscores the strength of our cash generation capabilities, which remain a highlight of our results.

Adjusted free cash flow, including interest rate swaps, was $217 million, up 4% in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, we're up 46%, having generated more than $1 billion through the first 3 quarters in excess of last year's full year level. Key drivers include lower cash taxes and interest, along with working capital management and some timing favorability.

On the top line, total revenue was $1.35 billion, up 4%. Installation, product and other revenue was $265 million, up 32%, driven by a higher mix of professionally installed systems under our outright sales model.

Monitoring and related services revenue was $1.08 billion, down 1%, which includes the revenue loss from the October 2025 divestiture of our multifamily business. Ending recurring monthly revenue was $360 million compared to $362 million a year ago, with that decline also primarily reflecting the multifamily divestiture.

Adjusted EBITDA was $665 million, down 2%. This reflects higher general and administrative costs, including technology investments, partially offset by the margin on our higher installation revenue. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 4%. And on a year-to-date basis, we have generated $0.71 of adjusted EPS, up 6%, benefiting from a lower diluted share count along with lower interest expense.

Turning to operational metrics. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1% compared with 13% a year ago, with elevated nonpay cancellations partially offset by fewer voluntary disconnects. Trailing 12-month revenue payback was 2.3 years, consistent with the prior year.

Gross RMR additions were $12.1 million on 195,000 gross unit additions. Direct professional install unit and RMR additions continued to perform strongly, improving versus the prior year, offset by lower volume from dealers and bulk account purchases.

During the quarter, we completed a bulk account purchase of approximately 8,000 customer accounts for $9 million in cash. In August, we secured $100 million of incremental borrowings under our First Lien Term Loan A due 2030. We designated the proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include repayment of a portion of our 2027 notes. Including these proceeds, we ended the quarter with $228 million of cash and cash equivalents with no borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

Net leverage was 2.7x adjusted EBITDA compared with 2.8x a year ago. During the quarter, we returned $64 million to shareholders, including $23 million in share repurchases and $41 million in dividends. Year-to-date, we have returned $748 million to shareholders through dividends and the repurchase of 89 million shares.

To conclude, we delivered solid overall third quarter results with revenue growth, strong year-to-date cash generation and stable core operating metrics, all while continuing to invest in our business for the long term.

As Elizabeth mentioned, due to the pending transaction, we won't be taking questions today. Thank you to our employees for their continued dedication, and thank you to our customers, dealers, partners and our investors.

And thank you all for joining us this morning. Operator, that concludes today's call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.