Samsung Stock Forecast: Q3 Profit Surges 783%, Can AI Memory Demand Continue to Push the Stock Higher?

Samsung's third-quarter operating profit reached 107.4 trillion won, exceeding the LSEG SmartEstimate expectation of about 106 trillion won; revenue was 195 trillion won, below the FactSet estimate of roughly 206.81 trillion won. The preliminary results did not disclose data by business segment, and the company will release its full financial report later in October.

Analysts expect the semiconductor business to be the primary driver of profit growth. AI servers continue to boost demand for HBM and high-capacity server DRAM, while major memory manufacturers have shifted more advanced process capacity to high-performance products, keeping supply tight for certain memory products.

TrendForce forecasts that contract prices for conventional DRAM will rise 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter; including HBM, overall DRAM contract prices are expected to increase 15% to 20%.

Samsung has begun mass production of HBM4 and started delivering commercial products to customers. For the full earnings report, key focus areas include semiconductor business profit, HBM shipment growth, and management's assessment of fourth-quarter memory prices and supply-demand conditions.

Higher memory prices improved profitability in Samsung's semiconductor business, while also increasing component costs for its smartphones and home appliances. Analysts estimate that combined operating losses for these two divisions in the third quarter could exceed 1 trillion won, reflecting that Samsung has not yet fully passed on rising costs to consumers.

In the third quarter, the South Korean won appreciated by more than 14% against the U.S. dollar, reducing the won-denominated value of translated overseas revenue. Going forward, key factors to monitor include DRAM and NAND prices, HBM shipment volumes, and whether the smartphone and home appliance divisions can improve profitability through price hikes, product mix optimization, and cost controls.

Market focus has shifted toward memory chip supply and demand dynamics as well as profit sustainability for 2027. If Samsung raises its HBM shipment targets or semiconductor profit guidance, the market may revise up the company's earnings forecasts; however, if memory prices retreat or HBM shipments fall short of expectations, earnings estimates and the stock price could come under pressure.

[Source: TradingView]

Based on the calculation from the intraday low of 243,000 won on September 3 to the high of 285,500 won on September 23, the 0.382, 0.500, and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels are 269,500 won, 264,500 won, and 259,000 won, respectively.

As of press time, Samsung Electronics' stock price was around 268,000 won, remaining below the 0.382 retracement level. If the daily chart closes back above 270,000 won, focus can shift to 275,000–276,000 won, as well as the high of 285,500 won touched twice in September.

If the stock breaks out on heavy volume and holds above 285,500 won, the -0.236 Fibonacci extension level is around 295,500 won, followed by the psychological level of 300,000 won.

Primary support below lies at 264,000–265,000 won. If this region gives way, the stock price could retest 259,000 won, with further support at 252,000–253,000 won.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.