BlackBerry Stock Forecast: Can Q2 Earnings Extend BB’s Turnaround?

On September 22, 2026, Coretura announced Alloy Kore as the foundation of its Commercial Vehicle Platform. Coretura is a joint venture between Daimler Truck and Volvo Group. The announcement marked Alloy Kore’s first design win.

Alloy Kore is a collaborative effort between QNX and Vector Informatik. BlackBerry announced the design win would add over $100 million to QNX’s royalty backlog. BlackBerry also mentioned the design win was QNX’s largest to date.

QNX royalty backlog is estimated future variable royalty revenue based on royalty rates and projected customer volumes over the expected life of a design. It is not booked cash, current-quarter revenue or guaranteed future sales. In the context of the design win, all signs point to the win being positive for BlackBerry. Long term, the design win should be positive. However, investors should examine the larger revenue generating businesses for signs of improvement.

Q1 2027 results showed revenue of $152.9 million reflecting an increase of 26% over the same period last year. QNX and Secure Communications segments showed revenues of $72.3 million and $73.6 million respectively reflecting increases of 26% and 24% over the same period last year. Licensing revenues for the quarter were $7.0 million.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $36.3 million compared to $14.9 million for the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was $8.5 million compared to net income of $1.9 million for the same period last year.

Operating cash flows for the quarter were $4.6 million compared to outflows of $18.0 million for the same period last year.

These results show a significant improvement over the same period last year and strengthen the case for the company turnaround.

Although the total revenues of the Secure Communications segment showed a positive growth, it is imperative that we review the key metrics of the segment.

For the quarter, total revenues of the segment were $73.6 million. Annual recurring revenues of the segment were $220 million. Dollar based Net Revenue Retention of the segment was 92%.

In the absence of improvement in DBNRR, material customer contracts would be the key driver of top-line growth. While the material customer contracts are booked, DBNRR should improve. If retention improves and QNX Royalties continue to grow, the revenue stream of the company will be material.

BlackBerry Limited has forecasted second quarter (2027) revenue of between US $137 million to US $148 million. Management has further broken down second quarter guidance for the QNX Software unit, targeting revenue in the range of US $70 million to US $75 million and for the Secure Communications Software unit targeting revenue of US $57 million to US $63 million. Licensing revenue is expected to be in the range of US $10 million. BlackBerry expects to report adjusted EBITDA of US $20 million to US $30 million, and non-GAAP basic earnings of US $0.03 to US $0.04 for the quarter.

From the guidance provided, it is expected that second quarter revenue will be lower compared to first quarter 2027. However, the first quarter of 2027 was exceptional and outperformed expectations, thus the decline in second quarter 2027 revenue is expected. Given the exceptional performance in the first quarter, I will be focusing on BlackBerry’s performance relative to its own internal guidance for the second quarter.

Following the release of first quarter 2027 results, management raised its annual revenue guidance to a range of US $594 million to US $621 million.

BlackBerry expects its QNX Software unit to report revenue of US $295 million to US $312 million for the year, Secure Communications Software unit to report revenue of US $270 million to US $280 million and its Licensing unit to report revenue of US $29 million for the year.

The company expects its adjusted EBITDA for the year will be in the range of US $119 million to US $139 million and operate cash flows to be in the range of approximately US $100 million.

Achieving second quarter targets will strengthen the case that BlackBerry is shifting focus from its restructuring efforts to growth.

I currently have a somewhat positive view on the stock. I view the auto and embedded-software pipeline for QNX as stronger, with Secure Communications as a growth vehicle and Alloy Kore with its bigger commercial reference.

I would look more positively on the stock if QNX upside came through, Secure Communications’ retention improved and BlackBerry’s guidance for the year improved.

I would take a more negative view if QNX missed its targets, Secure Communications’ growth and revenue reversed, BlackBerry’s cash flow returned to meaningfully negative levels and BlackBerry reduced its fiscal 2027 goals.

BlackBerry’s latest verified completed Toronto close was C $12.12 on September 22, within range of the chart price around C $12.14. The 2-hour chart shows some bullish changes after the bounce from the C $10.39 - C $10.90 demand zone. BlackBerry reclaimed the C $11.99 level, and looks set for further upside.

BlackBerry Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

BlackBerry's relative strength index (RSI) is at 74 and rising. This shows the bullish momentum. However, a spike like this usually results in a consolidation.

A sustained close above the C $12.82-C $13.10 resistance area would open the next bullish target at C $13.51.

There is first breakout support at C $11.99, with stronger support in the C $11.37- C $11.31 area around horizontal support and the moving average. Should the bulls fail to hold this support, expect further downside towards the C $10.39 support zone.

I expect further bullish price action in BlackBerry as long as the stock trades above C$11.99. We will get a clearer technical picture after the company releases its earnings.

Bullish price action has the 2-hour time frame leaning bullish. Key targets and barriers are provided below.

BlackBerry will release financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 on September 24, 2026, before the market opens. They will release results at 8 a.m. ET. The market will pay close attention to QNX revenue, retention in Secure Communications, EBITDA, and cash flows from operations. Additionally, the market will pay close attention to BlackBerry’s long-term guidance, after the recent Alloy Kore design win.

A close above C $12.82-C $13.10 would clear the next key resistance area and support the upside potential toward the C $13.51 area. Support is concentrated around C $11.99 and then C $11.37-C $11.31. A breakdown and close below C $11.31 would put the focus back on the downside and C $10.39.

BlackBerry continues to make progress with its turnaround strategy and long-term agreements. The recent Alloy Kore design win is anticipated to generate long-term revenue stream for BlackBerry. For the second quarter, company guidance implies lower sequential revenue and adjusted EBITDA than Q1, so the key test is whether BlackBerry meets or exceeds its Q2 ranges and maintains full-year guidance. The biggest risk for BlackBerry is achieving its financial targets.