SanDisk Stock Breaks $1,720 as Citi Conference Puts $1,825 in Focus

SanDisk reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $8.97 billion, a 51% increase sequentially. GAAP net income reached $6.90 billion, or $43.97 per diluted share, while non-GAAP EPS was $39.25. Full year revenue reached $20.25 billion, a 175% increase year over year.

The increase came from both volume and pricing, and management said roughly two-thirds of the sequential Q4 revenue increase was from pricing. That is powerful operating leverage, but it means decreased revenues and margins could happen quickly from reduced NAND pricing.

Data Center revenue remains the primary structural growth engine. Fiscal 2026 Data Center revenue increased 437% year over year, due to surging demand for AI infrastructure as Data center SSDs and other high-end flash began to be prominently used.

This is important because most AI workloads require persistent storage for checkpoints, retrieval databases, embeddings, logs and KV-cache workloads. SanDisk participates in the broader build out of AI infrastructure beyond the normal memory upcycle.

For Q1 FY 2027, SanDisk continues to project revenue in the range of $10.30B to $10.80B and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $44 to $46. At the midpoint, revenue is expected to increase by 18% sequentially.

No official guidance has been removed as of September 8. Therefore, the current fundamental baseline is strong, although the sustainability of existing margins is still reliant on NAND pricing.

Prior to the end of Q4, SanDisk closed 10 New Business Model agreements in total. These agreements are expected to reduce NAND-related volatility and improve volume visibility.

These agreements do not eliminate the risk associated with the memory cycle, but it does reduce the dependence of the earnings integration on short-term price.

SanDisk and Kioxia's joint project will continue to invest greater than $31 billion in Japan prior to 2032, if government support continue to be available. This project is a joint SanDisk-Kioxia initiative rather than a SanDisk-only commitment and is focused on advancing the production of flash memory and associated research.

The opportunity is obvious with the continued rapid demand on AI-related storage. Conversely, the risk is known, should new capacity be supplied prior to demand. SanDisk must balance the current strong margin expansion with the need for existing capacity to be rational.

At 12:35 p.m. ET, Management is set to present at Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference. Followed by Goldman Sachs at 2:30 p.m. ET on September 9 presentation at Communacopia + Technology Conference.

Investors will be looking for updates on NAND pricing, demand for AI and data center, Q1, customer contracts, Japan expansion of capacity and margin. Any confirmation on pricing and enterprise demand could provide more color to the ongoing breakout.

Oil prices are up while Sino-U.S. relations are tense, which will impact inflation. Elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are adding inflation pressure and can keep Treasury yields higher. Elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty raise the risk that higher yields which compress semiconductor valuations will occur even if customer demand remains good.

The key risk factors for SanDisk are normalizing NAND prices, competition from China, potential oversupply from capacity expansion and macro factors of increasing interest rates.

SanDisk closed Friday at $1,740.00 after an 11.90% gain and a break above $1,720. The sequence of higher lows along the rising trendline shows this break was made from a broader accumulation structure and not a single momentum spike. The immediate goal is to hold $1,720.48 and if it holds, then the upside break exposure is $1,824.57. The $1,825 level is the first major long term resistance.

SanDisk StockPrice Chart - Source: Tradingview

RSI is at 77 and holds above 70, which is overbought, while momentum remains bullish. Consolidation is expected, but a drop below $1,720 would make $1,608.08 the new support. The moving average sits at $1,526.82.

Key Levels

·       Latest completed close: $1,740.00

·       Short-term pivot: $1,720.48

·       Major breakout support: $1,608.08

·       Moving-average support: $1,526.82

·       First upside target: $1,824.57

·       Major resistance: $1,941.34

·       RSI: Around 77, firmly overbought

SanDisk has strong customer relationships, good Data Center exposure, long-term contracts, and is benefitting from the high demand for AI-storage and good NAND pricing. The short term catalysts are appearances by management at the Citi and Goldman Sachs conferences.

As long as we stay above $1720.48, the breakout remains intact. Sustained closes above $1824.57-$1825 establish focus around $1941.34.

Fundamentals suggest that SanDisk has healthy records for revenues, margins, Data Center growth, and significant long-term AI-storage investments. SanDisk is technically overbought and there is some risk due to current profits which depend on high NAND pricing. I am bullish as long as $1,608.08 holds and $1,720.48 is the primary pivot level. Focus will change to $1,824.57 and $1,941.34, respectively, once levels have been maintained.