Micron Stock Forecast: Can AI Memory Demand Push MU Above $1,000?

As the investments in AI infrastructure grow, Micron is capitalizing on the rising demand for higher-value NAND products. In the second quarter, enterprise SSDs accounted for 48% of global NAND shipments, up from 26% last year, said Counterpoint Research.

The surge in AI inference workloads has created a shortage of NAND and driven industry revenue to new highs. According to Counterpoint, NAND profitability is going to be driven more by the product mix than by sheer volume sales going forward through 2027. That trend may influence Micron's favor as being very exposed to enterprise and data-center storage.

Micron accounted for about 13% of global NAND shipments in the second quarter. That put it behind Samsung, SK Hynix, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), and Kioxia in terms of unit volume.

YMTC's shipment share was slightly larger at 14%. However, YMTC failed to generate as much revenue as Micron, which is a reflection of the difference between their product mix. Micron is exposed to premium enterprise and data-center products, whereas Chinese rivals are more focused on traditional memory products.

Meanwhile, SanDisk accounted for approximately 11% of NAND shipments worldwide.

Another competitive challenge came in when Apple reportedly sells devices in the Chinese market using CXMT memory.

Currently, the threat seems to be from the long-term horizon rather than the near-term. Testing does not necessarily lead to an order, and any future agreement could face scrutiny from the U.S. government. There has also been no public acknowledgment of Apple's connection with CXMT.

The news didn't appear to be a major worry for investors, as micron shares rose about 1.8% for the day.

 CXMT is also building up its financial muscle. Last month, it sold an IPO in Shanghai for about $8.6 billion, providing the Chinese DRAM manufacturer with additional resources to invest in traditional memory operations. However, analysts including those at BofA point out that CXMT’s growth remains concentrated in commodity DRAM rather than high-bandwidth memory, which is a much bigger driver of Micron’s AI-related earnings.

A second driver could be Micron's capacity to begin repurchasing its shares.

Seeking Alpha contributors have highlighted a CHIPS Act provision that currently limits Micron’s ability to repurchase shares. The prohibition will be lifted on December 9, 2026.

When the restriction is removed, Micron may be able to retire significant amounts of its outstanding shares. The company might ultimately use about $24.4 billion in net cash to reduce its shares by up to 12%, according to some estimates.

The company's expanding data center business is another hope for optimism. Data-center SSD revenue just hit over $5 billion for the quarter and just jumped more than double sequentially. This adds one more avenue to shareholders' returns than the broader AI and HBM theme.

Netlist is also challenging Micron in court. The company has lodged a complaint with the International Trade Commission over Micron's DDR5 memory products, claiming the products violate the company's patents. The case could have an impact on product distribution and on Micron's legal obligations.

In the short term, it's too soon to consider the conflict as a threat to earnings, but it's yet another risk that investors will want to keep an eye on as they watch China's competition grow.

Analysts remain divided over how far Micron’s current memory cycle can go.

Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh announced an August 11 Buy rating with a $1,375 price target. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri is even more bullish, with a $1,625 price target that means that the stock has just over 88% upside from where it stands. Citigroup's Atif Malik dropped his price target from $1,400 to $1,150 on Aug. 6, with a Buy rating.

For KeyBanc, John Vinh has a $1,750 target, citing 15-20% sequential growth in DRAM prices and even more in NAND prices. Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse plays a tougher, higher-stakes game with a $2,000 goal. He pointed to long-term contracts that could eventually account for about 40% of Micron's revenue.

The average price target of the 46 analysts monitored by S&P Global is near $1,500 and the overall analyst consensus rating is Strong Buy.

Image Source: Tipranks

Technically, Micron is currently trading around 3.4% above its 20-day moving average of $879.08 and 5.8% below its 50-day moving average of $965.16. Despite the consolidation the stock remains 66.8% above its 200-day moving average, demonstrating a strong bull market trend.

Micron Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The next major resistance level is the $1,012 area, and the immediate support area is near the $891.50 price, near the 20-day exponential moving average.

Micron's next earnings report is due around September 22. Wall Street is seeking revenue of about $50.8bn and earnings per share of $31.27, both of which are significant rises from the previous year.

In addition to the earnings, investors will be looking for a handful of other catalysts. The buyback restriction is scheduled to expire on December 9, which could be a key factor, and if Netlist ITC is resolved and Apple is found to have confirmed ties with CXMT, then it may also impact sentiment.

But for now, Micron's narrative centers on the memory demand as a function of AI. The next big one is whether the firm can sustain the benefit of its higher-priced products in the face of stiffer competition, lawsuits and the growing importance of the Chinese memory market.