SpaceX Stock Tests $154 as Starlink and AI Growth Support SPCX

For Q2, SpaceX reported revenue of $7.814 billion, rising 92% compared to this period last year, and $4.071 billion. This was above the expected projection on Wall Street. The largest segment was Connectivity, which encompasses Starlink and generated revenue of $4.291 billion. The second largest segment was AI services and generated revenue of $2.561 billion, and the third largest segment, Space, generated revenue of $962 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $3.54 billion, however, SpaceX posted a net loss of $541 million. The distinction is important, as operating growth was impressive, and as a result, a heavy burden from depreciation, and heavy spending combined with aggressive capital outlay and investment combined with a large capital expenditure remain.

Starlink closed the quarter with 12 million broadband subscribers, 2X last years levels, and demand is growing in Enterprise and government, as well as in maritime, aviation, and defense with demand for direct-to-cellular services. Starlink is SpaceX's profitable Connectivity business and helps fund the more capital intensive operations of SpaceX and the AI verticals.

SpaceX’s AI segment produced revenue of around $2.56 billion in Q2, reflecting a 247% increase from the previous year. New cloud-services agreements contributed about $1.6 billion of incremental AI infrastructure revenue during the quarter.

The primary risk is the large capital expense ($18.4 billion for Q2, of which approximately $15.8 billion is linked to AI infrastructure). Investors are betting that contracted compute demand will convert to revenue at a meaningful and rapid pace for an operating profit that will justify a capital program that currently far outpaces quarterly company revenue.

Cursor extends SpaceX’s AI software exposure, but there are already execution concerns. OpenAI plans to stop providing models to Cursor on November 12, 2026, and Anthropic has said it will increase support for Claude models in the system.

There was also the concern after Russian-speaking cybercriminals used Cursor during attacks on at least seven companies. Clearly, this does not mean Cursor was responsible for the attacks, but it shows the need to have more control for powerful AI coding systems.

Starship is really the focus for the long-term Starlink economics because it can carry much more than Falcon 9. Based on recently filed paperwork, there is the anticipation of a major test flight in the middle of September. This date should be considered a target since it is likely to be flexible and not firm.

Successful test launches would affect more than just rocket development. Higher Starship launches would reduce the cost of deploying larger Starlink V3 satellites, and improve the economics of futurespace-based connectivity and AI infrastructure.

SpaceX pulled out of a high-profile Paris space summit after the White House pressured U.S. space companies not to attend. Starlink, launch, and govt relationships can come under pressure due to the U.S.-EU policy dispute.

Post-IPO supply is also another risk. Lockups can create selling pressure despite healthy Starlink and AI demand. Weakness in SPCX should not be interpreted as a deterioration in the operating business.

SPCX is recovering from $105.75 having closed at $149.74 which is close to the chart's $149.66. Price is currently above the trendline with a $146.86 $154.36 zone of resistance.

SpaceX Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Bullish continuation would be a 4-hour close above $154.36 targeting $163.36 and $172.14. Beyond that, the zone of resistance would extend to the Fibonacci extension of $190.23.

RSI is at 66 with positive momentum, having crossed over the signal line at 58. On the downside, there is $146.86, $141.75, and $138.94. Selling pressure could be extended to $131.22.

Key Levels

·       Latest completed close: $149.74

·       First support: $146.86

·       Support Cluster: $141.75 - $138.94

·       Breakout Resistance: $154.36

·       First Upside Target: $163.36

·       Higher Target: $172.14

·       Extension Target: $190.23

·       RSI: Around 66, bullish but not extreme

Starlink subscriber growth coupled with rising AI revenues and the potential for cost advantage through Starship are good fundamentals. These are offset by high and volatile cash flow after the IPO and heavy capex.

Closing above $154.36 for 4 hours would clear the resistance zone, supporting a case for moving above $163.36 and then $172.14.

High growth and capital-intensive SpaceX fundamentals are driven by rapid growth of Starlink, rising revenue from AI, and potential for deployment of Starship. There are risks primarily from AI spending, Cursor execution, exposure to politics, and high post-IPO supply of shares. SPCX is bullish as long as support at $141.75 to $146.86 holds, with $154.36 the breakout resistance level to move to $163-$172.