SpaceX (SPCX) Bond Draws $89B Demand — Is the Stock Selloff Overdone at $156?

$89 billion is submitted in orders for $25 billion in bonds, this is not a rounding error or a news-worthy number, rather this represents the considered opinion of pensions, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors with mandated institutional capital that SpaceX’s Baa1/BBB+/BBB investment-grade credit is a worthy risk at 5.35% to 6.65% for a maturity ranging from 5 years to 30 years.

This is investors doing institutional level credit analysis, modeling the Starlink cash flows, stress testing the xAI op losses, assessing the bridge loan refinance risk, and analyzing management governance. $89 billion of demand for $25 billion of bonds quantifies institutional confidence in SpaceX’s long term business viability that is not yet reflected in the price of the equity over the past week.

The bond transaction, in many ways, solves the primary reason for the equity selloff, a hard deadline of the $20 billion bridge loan with a September 2027 maturity date. SpaceX priced $7 billion of 5.350% notes due 2031, $6 billion of 5.650% notes due 2033, $6 billion of 5.875% notes due 2036, $2.5 billion of 6.600% notes due 2046 and $3.5 billion of 6.650% notes due 2056 with settlement on June 26.

Spreading the refinance out from a single maturity date in 2027, which the equity markets are pricing as a cliff over the coming year, to the bond market’s staggered maturity from 2031 to 2056 with the shortest maturity being five years out, SpaceX essentially removes the primary threat, the September 2027 bridge loan, which was the single biggest catalyst to the equity selloff from $225 to $147, from the capital structure on June 26.

SPCX hit $147.11, which was the low of the trading session yesterday, a price lower than that first day $150 open price which also represented the market’s very first estimate for where the share price was supposed to be on June 12. And then look at this price, a $156 close price that was achieved without a single piece of fresh positive fundamental news (remember, the bond order book wasn't even visible at the market close on June 23). And yet, the stock went back and closed there, which means one thing, $150 and lower represents a selling driven by technicals and sentiment, and not a move driven by any shift in the stock’s fundamental value.

Retail sentiment at Stocktwits turned to its most pessimistic point ever at a 42 reading, a 100-point scale. And it went neutral to negative in 24 hours. One user said this bond deal was a “big red flag.” And I mean in terms of human emotion this totally makes sense. But this reading doesn’t take into account what is actually good about 3.5x oversubscribed investment grade priced bonds. It’s actually a pretty bullish signal if your creditworthiness as an issuer.

And Susquehanna, they came out with a neutral for SPCX and a $170 price target. They are right to call it a “highly aggressive” target, but when the stock is $156.11, a neutral target still implies almost 9% upside compared to the most conservative projection of this newly initiated research report. And $89 billion in bond appetite does not seem like the kind of appetite that is being generated to support something deemed too aggressive as a target price. It is also important to note that the $89 billion in institutional money, or the institutional capital that came in the form of real money over the past 48 hours with five year and thirty year notes all have a different view than the bearish case outlined in Susquehanna.

The same equity investors sold $191 to $147 of SPCX in a 3-day period while bond investors are simultaneously sending $89 billion worth of bid to subscribe to the issue. This divergence is the type of thing which often leads to an equity price correction.

Looking at the 2H chart, SPCX is currently sitting right along the rising black trendline at a $155 to $157 range where it also last saw some lower shadow long wicks from a few mixed candles. And this is where buyers are coming to defend the stock. The RSI at 35.35 is in oversold territory, but also at the same time it shows bullish divergence in price making lower lows but RSI still making higher highs indicating that it looks like we may not have much further downside here. And we saw that volume came off on the recent down candles.

SpaceX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

On the upside, we see resistance around the $172 and $178 range. This is an area where we see an EMA and Fibo zone all coming together. If we are to have an upside continuation from the trendline with the $161.00 being broken out cleanly, then we should see at least a $172.00 target to make the rebound on the way back from this trendline. On the other hand, if $149.70 is breached, that will leave us open to test $140.82. This bond settlement date on June 26 is also something to look out for, because once that gets done, this week’s SPCX equity will have no more major technical structure to overcome during the week.

• Entry: Long above $161.00 (trendline and Fibo levels overcome)
• Target: $172.00 (bounce off trendline extension)
• Support: $149.70 (intraday low region, failure here exposes $140.82 downside)
• Stop Loss: Close below $149.70 (trendline and support breakdown)
• Bond settlement: June 26, 2026 (bridge loan paid off, technical weight lifted)
• Next earnings: August 6, 2026

It does. SpaceX is going to use the proceeds of this offering, to settle June 26, 2026, to pay off the outstanding bridge loan entirely. The September 2027 deadline on the $20 billion bridge loan was the key hard deadline that drove the most of the price fall from $225 to $147.11. The bridge loan will be paid off once the June 26 settlement has cleared, meaning that bridge risk is removed entirely. All SpaceX’s debts are now spread across five different maturities ranging from 2031 to 2056, with the nearest one maturing only five years from now.

The technical picture suggests the RSI of 35.35 is in oversold territory, with upside divergence forming on top of an uptrend line that’s been tested, recovering from the $147.11 intraday low. The trade should be a long above $161.00 toward a $172.00 target, with a stop under $149.70. The $89 billion of demand seen by the bond deal has solved the structural problem associated with the bridge loan, and demonstrated institutional-level faith in SpaceX’s ability to repay its debts. Susquehanna’s Neutral price target of $170 implies upside of some 9% relative to a $156 price. Other problems persist, including xAI operating losses, S&P’s FCF-through-2029 bearish outlook, lockup ending December 2026, and Morningstar’s $62 fair value, but the September 2027 bridge loan cliff is no longer an issue.

The $25 billion SpaceX bond trade is priced with demand at $89 billion, a 3.5x oversubscription, representing some of the biggest investment grade order book size in history, with the stock sitting at $156.11 after a low of $147.11 today. The bridge loan deal solves the hard deadline on the September 2027 bridge loan via settlement on June 26, wiping out the single structural problem that was most responsible for the drop in stock from $225 to $147.11.

The gap between $89 billion of bond demand by institutions and the three-day sell-off by equities is the most obvious sign of panic over credit risk pricing that doesn’t exist among credit investors at 5.35% to 6.65% yield. It is a buy above $161.00, targeting $172.00. The RSI at 35.35 is oversold with upside divergence forming off an uptrend line support. xAI operating losses, Morningstar $62 fair value, the lockup expiration of December 2026 are overhangs still beyond June 26.