Week Ahead: US-Iran Peace Deal to Be Signed as Early as Sunday; Countdown to Warsh’s FOMC Debut; OpenAI CEO Altman to Visit South Korea

TradingKey - Boosted by the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher across the board this week. With the official launch of the SpaceX IPO, the largest U.S. IPO window in history has officially opened. In the coming week, the market will need to focus on the progress of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, which may dominate the direction of U.S. stocks; Fed Chair Warsh will hold his first monetary policy press conference, with the market expecting interest rates to remain unchanged; OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will visit South Korea.

Preview of Major Events

U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Could Be Signed in Switzerland as Early as Sunday

According to the latest reports, negotiations for the U.S.-Iran peace agreement have entered the final stretch. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) is "closer to completion than ever," while the U.S. side expects the probability of the agreement being signed to be as high as 80%-85%. Previously, Bloomberg cited senior U.S. officials saying that both parties are expected to use next week's G7 summit to sign the deal, with an MoU potentially being signed in Geneva, Switzerland, as early as Sunday (the 14th). However, this report has been refuted by Iranian sources who called it untrue, suggesting the signing timeline could be delayed.

Once the agreement is signed, both the U.S. and Iran will end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to restore regional stability. Negotiations on the nuclear issue will be postponed to within 60 days after the signing of the agreement.

New Fed Chair Warsh's Debut: Market Expects Rates to Hold Steady in June

The Fed's interest rate decision will take place next week. On Wednesday (June 17) ET, Fed Chair Warsh will hold his first monetary policy press conference, with the market expecting rates to remain unchanged. Nevertheless, Warsh's remarks remain crucial: whether the policy statement removes accommodative language, whether full-year rate forecasts are adjusted, and whether the policy tone shifts will all influence market direction. Additionally, whether Warsh can convince the market of the Fed's ability to curb inflation while maintaining independence from the White House will be key. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that Warsh must take a very hawkish stance on inflation or risk losing the trust of the bond market.

OpenAI CEO Altman Follows Jensen Huang’s Lead with Korea Visit; Set to Meet Samsung, Kakao, and Naver Next Week

According to Yonhap News Agency, Altman will arrive in South Korea on the afternoon of June 14 and depart on the evening of the 15th, marking his first visit to the country in eight months.

Altman will visit Samsung Electronics' Suwon campus to deliver a speech at the "DX Insight Talk" for employees of the Device eXperience (DX) division. He will then meet with Kakao CEO Shina Chung and is also expected to visit Naver's headquarters. Samsung plans to officially open several generative AI services, including ChatGPT and Gemini Enterprise, to its DX division employees starting June 12, making Altman's visit particularly timely.

Weekly Key Schedule

Monday (June 15)

Keywords: G7 Summit, ECB Speeches, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's Korea Visit

The G7 Summit will take place from June 15-17; ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech, along with ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone and Governing Council member Martin Kocher.

Regarding major events, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will arrive in South Korea on the afternoon of June 14 and depart on the evening of the 15th, visiting Samsung, Kakao, and Naver during this time.

Tuesday (June 16)

Keywords: BOJ and RBA Interest Rate Decisions, U.S. May ADP, U.S. May Import Price Index

On June 16, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will both announce interest rate decisions. Since Kazuo Ueda is hospitalized and will not attend, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold the monetary policy press conference. The U.S. will release the weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, along with the U.S. May Import Price Index (MoM and YoY). ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will also deliver a speech.

Wednesday (June 17)

Keywords: UK CPI, U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory Changes

On this day, the UK's May CPI (YoY), Core CPI (YoY), Input PPI (YoY, NSA), and Retail Price Index (YoY) will be released, alongside the Eurozone's final May CPI (YoY). The U.S. will release the May Pending Home Sales Index (MoM) and EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 12. The IEA will also release its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Thursday (June 18)

Keywords: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Warsh's Debut, BOE Interest Rate Decision

The FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections on this day, followed by Fed Chair Warsh's monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BOE) will also announce interest rate decisions, with the BOE releasing its meeting minutes.

The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 and the June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Friday (June 19)

Keywords: Japan CPI, U.S. Stock Market Holiday

Japan will release its May CPI (YoY) and Core CPI (YoY); U.S. stock markets will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday.