SpaceX Starship Successfully Launched. Completes Key Test Before IPO, Listing Valuation Challenges $2 Trillion?

TradingKey - The successful launch of SpaceX's third-generation Starship signifies the company's entry into commercialization, supporting its current valuation but making it difficult to drive further upside.

On March 22, ET, Elon Musk’s SpaceX experienced malfunctions during flight but ultimately succeeded in launching the redesigned Starship V3, completing the deployment of 22 test satellites. Regarding the flight, SpaceX stated that the overall test objectives were largely achieved. However, will this test boost its IPO valuation?

On May 20, 2026, SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company is expected to list on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker symbol SPCX, with an IPO valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion.

Although many investment banks are optimistic about SpaceX's IPO valuation, data from prediction markets suggest otherwise. As of press time, the probability of bets falling below $1.6 trillion exceeds 90%; the chance of landing in the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion range is only 82%, and the likelihood of breaking above $2 trillion is even lower, both staying below 70%.

Market expectations for SpaceX IPO valuation, source: Polymarket

Currently, the market remains skeptical of SpaceX's IPO valuation. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes a bubble exists, explicitly stating that 'proposed mega-IPOs from SpaceX and OpenAI could push the weight of tech stocks in equity benchmarks beyond the concentration levels seen during the market bubble period.'

Furthermore, analyst Robert Cyran notes that xAI within SpaceX consumes massive capital expenditures but has achieved results far inferior to its competitors. First-quarter revenue grew by less than 13% year-over-year, while Anthropic’s quarterly growth rate could be five times faster, potentially weighing down SpaceX’s valuation.

The successful launch of the third-generation Starship helps SpaceX mitigate the impact of its AI business on its valuation. In the pre-IPO financial models of top Wall Street institutions, the first and second generations of Starship were primarily viewed as technical validation and early deployment for Starlink, lacking commercialization; however, the third-generation Starship addresses this issue, driving SpaceX toward generating cash flow. .