Eli Lilly Weight-Loss Drug Retatrutide Posts Impressive Data; Can Novo Nordisk Break Through After Falling Behind Again?

Retatrutide’s efficacy data spans multiple dose levels, exhibiting a clear dose-dependent relationship. Over the 80-week trial period, participants in the highest 12mg dose group achieved an average weight loss of 28.3% (approximately 70.3 lbs), while the 9mg group lost 25.9% (approximately 64.4 lbs), and the 4mg group lost 19.0% (approximately 47.2 lbs), compared to just 2.2% for the placebo group. Notably, 45.3% of participants in the 12mg group achieved weight loss of 30% or more, a level previously attainable only through bariatric surgery.

[Retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 Results, Source: Eli Lilly Official Website ]

By week 80, 65.3% of participants in the 12mg group saw their BMI drop below 30, no longer meeting the diagnostic criteria for obesity. After extending the treatment period to 104 weeks, the average weight loss for the 12mg group further climbed to 30.3%.

In comparison, Eli Lilly’s current flagship product, Zepbound (tirzepatide), yields a weight loss of approximately 20.9% at its highest dose, while Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy (semaglutide) holds a historical record of about 18.7% at high doses. Retatrutide has outperformed both the company’s own product and its competitor under comparable statistical metrics.

The drug also demonstrated significant improvements in cardiovascular risk indicators; in the 12mg group, participants saw an average reduction in waist circumference of 24.1 cm, while metrics such as triglycerides, non-HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure showed continuous improvement. Analysts generally expect Eli Lilly to submit a marketing application to the U.S. FDA as early as this year, with forecasts for the drug’s future peak annual sales exceeding $6.6 billion.

In the same month that Eli Lilly announced the staggering efficacy of Retatrutide, Novo Nordisk underwent a trial of "ice and fire" in its performance. Financial results show that in the first quarter of 2026, Novo Nordisk's adjusted net sales fell 4% year-over-year at constant exchange rates to 70.063 billion Danish kroner, and adjusted operating profit declined 6%. Sales of the anti-diabetic semaglutide injection Ozempic fell 8% year-over-year, while the oral version Rybelsus dropped 15%; total sales of the semaglutide series in the Chinese market fell 22.5% year-over-year, with the injectable weight-loss version plunging 36%. Total sales in the U.S. market also slid 11%.

The newly launched oral weight-loss Wegovy tablets generated 2.256 billion Danish kroner (approximately 2.4 billion RMB) in first-quarter sales, with single-quarter prescriptions exceeding 1.3 million, beating market expectations. However, because of a clear time lag between the decline of legacy injectables and the ramp-up of new products, this gap cannot be filled in the short term.

Eli Lilly is also making rapid strides in the oral segment; its April-approved Foundayo is projected to reach $2.8 billion in 2026 sales—nearly double the market consensus of $1.5 billion—leveraging its differentiated positioning of "no dietary or water restrictions."

From a financial perspective, Eli Lilly has captured over 60% of the global GLP-1 market share, compared to approximately 39% for Novo Nordisk. In terms of R&D, Retatrutide's 28.3% weight loss data has redefined the sector's ceiling, making the 20.4% to 22.7% weight loss results from the highest dose of Novo Nordisk's injectable drug, CagriSema, appear relatively lackluster by comparison.

Regarding valuation, Eli Lilly's current forward P/E ratio is approximately 38x; while this is well above the pharmaceutical industry average of 23x, it is lower than its five-year average of 56x.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk's share price has fallen by roughly 60% from its 2024 high, with its current P/E ratio at only about 10x.

Eli Lilly's product moat in the weight loss market is steadily strengthening as it transitions from a single-asset dependency to a multi-asset portfolio. Conversely, Novo Nordisk faces a more daunting challenge: as Retatrutide's marketing authorization advances and the 2027 patent cliff approaches, existing revenue from Semaglutide will be eroded on two fronts, raising the question of how Novo Nordisk will fill the resulting gap.

Although Novo Nordisk has partnered with Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI in an attempt to achieve a breakthrough via AI-driven drug R&D and operational optimization, its product performance has yet to show significant signals of success, having not yet achieved a generational leap forward through AI. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide has established a formidable barrier in the weight-loss drug market, making the prospect of catching up through R&D appear increasingly remote.

Oral Wegovy is currently the most brilliant yet singular highlight for Novo Nordisk. This is despite the drug recording sales of 2.256 billion Danish krone (approximately 2.4 billion RMB) in the first quarter of 2026, which was roughly double analyst expectations.

However, Oral Wegovy is essentially still an oral formulation of semaglutide, and neither its mechanism nor its efficacy ceiling has surpassed the physical limits of single-target GLP-1. While the drug’s defensive value lies in capturing the niche market for oral convenience, it is fundamentally incapable of competing head-to-head with Eli Lilly's triple-target molecule in terms of weight-loss depth.

At present, it is too early to suggest a turnaround for Novo Nordisk. In the efficacy-driven weight-loss sector, Novo Nordisk's only path to a breakthrough remains the hard data of its next-generation molecules. With the window for its R&D cycle continuously shrinking under pressure from Eli Lilly, the road ahead for Novo Nordisk's breakthrough appears long and arduous.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.