Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) 2026年第三季財報電話會議：EBITDAX成長35%，2027年轉折點在即

重點摘要

• 第三季平均產量為每日 34,641 桶油當量 (BOE)，季增 8%，其中原油產量增加 16%。原油占總產量的 55%。
• 調整後 EBITDAX 達 1.073 億美元，季增 35%、年增 36%。管理階層表示，這是 Granite Ridge Resources 上市以來表現最強勁的一季。
• 營運資金變動前的現金流為 9,660 萬美元，超過該季 9,080 萬美元的鑽探與完井資本支出。
• 董事會批准了一項規模高達 3,500 萬美元的股份回購計畫。管理階層表示，回購將視市場機會靈活進行。
• 管理階層設定 2027 年產量年增約 10% 的目標，其中原油比重將提高，而資本支出則大致持平。
• Granite Ridge 預期 2027 年調整後自由現金流足以支應股利與其他資本配置優先事項，同時預期更高的現金流將有助於降低槓桿率。

核心財務數據

GAAP 淨虧損中包含了 5,270 萬美元的大宗商品衍生工具虧損，其中 3,180 萬美元為未實現虧損。

業務與營運表現

Granite Ridge 在本季投產了 9.2 口淨油氣井，主要位於二疊紀盆地，截至季末還有 14.6 口淨油氣井在建。Waha 天然氣價格的回升也是帶動 EBITDAX 季增的另一主因。

該公司持續將大部分鑽探與完井資本配置於營運合作夥伴關係。管理階層表示，這些夥伴關係持續以每個淨井位低於 250 萬美元的成本，為二疊紀盆地增添儲量儲備。

Granite Ridge 介紹了另一家專注於米德蘭盆地的營運合作夥伴 Arete Creek Resources。Arete 已取得約 6 個鑽井間距單元以及超過 40 個總井位，並於 10 月開鑽了首口合作井，預計於 2027 年運作一台鑽機。

在優提卡頁岩區，Granite Ridge 擁有約 6,300 淨英畝土地，並透過 100 多口總產油井的權益，每日生產約 3,000 淨桶油當量。該季公司斥資 1,900 萬美元完成 20 筆收購，新增 8 個淨井位，平均進場成本約為每井位 240 萬美元。

Granite Ridge 還剝離了價值超過 2,000 萬美元的 DJ 盆地油氣資產。管理階層將此次出售定調為因應市場機會進行的投資組合清理，而非廣泛資產變現策略的一部分。

在公司治理方面，Gray Rock 的關聯機構於 8 月向有限合夥人分派了 1,400 萬股 Granite Ridge 股份。Gray Rock 的持股比例降至約 39%，Granite Ridge 已不再是受控公司。公司正依相關規定於限期內轉型為獨立董事占多數的董事會及全體獨立的委員會。

管理階層財測指引

管理階層表示，Granite Ridge 目標在 2027 年實現約 10% 的產量年增率，其中原油預期將占增量的較大比例。管理階層亦認同資本支出年增率大致持平是合理的假設。

隨著產量成長與避險部位到期，管理階層預期 2027 年調整後 EBITDAX 將遠高於 2026 年第三季的年化水準。公司亦預期 2027 年調整後自由現金流將能支應股利發放及其他資本配置優先事項。

Arete Creek 預計將於 2027 年運作一台鑽機。Granite Ridge 表示，現有的營運夥伴關係為 2027 年及 2028 年的開發計畫提供了能見度，使其得以開始著手規劃後續年度的儲量儲備與開採活動。

風險與觀察重點

儘管以每 BOE 計算的租約營運費用呈現季減，但整體水準依然偏高。管理階層將此壓力主要歸因於較高含水率與返排水所產生的鹽水處置成本，以及地面設備租賃和外包人工成本。隨著產量成長，總營運成本預計將增加，不過管理階層預期單位成本將逐步趨近財測指引區間。

大宗商品價格波動仍是關鍵因素。Granite Ridge 表示，公司在評估收購案與合作油井時，是以期貨遠期價格下全週期報酬率高於 25% 為標準，無意主要依據近月大宗商品價格來追逐資產。

Gray Rock 未來的股份分派（包括時機與規模）仍取決於 Gray Rock 的自主決定。該公司亦表示，股份回購的步調與規模將視市場機會而定，董事會可能會擴大或取消該項授權。

管理階層預期債務對 EBITDA 槓桿比率將隨著 EBITDAX 成長而下降，但自由現金流將同時面臨股利發放、股份回購、償還債務以及其他資本配置優先事項的資金競爭。

分析師問答集錦

• 2027 年營運框架：管理階層確認，產量成長約 10%、原油貢獻增加以及資本支出大致持平，皆為 2027 年的合理假設。
• 營運合作夥伴產能：Arete Creek 已整合超過 40 個總井位，並具備足夠的儲備以支撐 2027 年一台鑽機的運作。Granite Ridge 還擁有其他未公開的合作夥伴正在推動各項開發契機，預計最快於 2027 年底或更晚開始貢獻效益。
• 股份回購：管理階層表示，初步獲准的 3,500 萬美元授權額度旨在為逢低回購提供彈性。董事會可根據現金流狀況與市場環境重新評估該計畫。
• 每井位收購成本上升：管理階層將季增主因歸結於優提卡交易占比較高，該地區水平井長度達 15,000 至 20,000 英尺，超過二疊紀標準化比較的 10,000 英尺。管理階層表示，若以每英尺計算，收購成本仍保持一致。
• 資產出售：管理階層表示，公司持續檢視橫跨六個盆地的非營運資產組合，但並未推行系統性的資產剝離計畫。
• 槓桿率：公司預期隨著 EBITDAX 成長，槓桿率將自然下降，同時將持續著重於資產負債表的穩健與安全性。

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Granite Ridge Resources' Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. James Master, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please begin.

James Masters

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Granite Ridge Resources. We will begin our call with comments from Tyler Farkison, our President and Chief Executive Officer, who will review the quarter's results and company strategy. He will then turn the call over to Kyle Kettler, our Chief Financial Officer, to review our financial results in greater detail. Tyler will then return to provide closing comments before we open the call for questions.

Today's conference call contains certain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. We ask that you review the cautionary statement in our earnings release. Granite Ridge disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these statements. These and other risks are described in our press release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted free cash flow. information reconciling these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in our earnings release on our website. Finally, this call is being recorded, and a replay and transcript will be available on our website following today's call.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tyler.

Tyler Farquharson

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the most important takeaway -- for the last year, we have told you that 2026 is the final year we invest ahead of our cash flow and that 2027 is the turn. This quarter, you can start to see the turn in our numbers. Average daily production grew 8% from the second quarter. Oil volumes grew 16%. Adjusted EBITDA taxrose 35% sequentially to $107.3 million. and our cash flow before working capital changes covered our drilling and completion capital for the quarter.

We are also taking 3 steps today that reflect where the business is going. First, our board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $35 million. Second, we are putting a clearer definition of adjusted free cash flow in front of you, along with the order in which we intend to use it. Third, we continue to evaluate our operating partnerships, and we are excited to name our third operating partner in the Permian and retake free resources.

Kyle will take you through the first 2. Let me start with the quarter in the platform. Third quarter production averaged 34,641 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 55% of it was oil. We placed 9.2 net wells online, most of them in the Permian, and we ended the quarter with 14.6 net wells in process. The other major driver to our quarter-over-quarter EBITDAX growth was natural gas price realization.

Our realized gas price was from $1.12 per Mcf in the second quarter to $3.46 in the third quarter as Waha basis recovered. Kyle will walk you through that in detail because it's a real change in our cash flow. Our operator partnership platform remains the core of our strategy and it directs the majority of our 2026 drilling and completion capital. The advantage starts from sourcing, our partners find and assemble acreage to their own leasing, ground game and operator relationships, so we see opportunities that never reach a marketed process.

We provide the capital -- we underwrite every opportunity to our return threshold, and we control the pace. That is how we've consistently added inventory for under $2.5 million per net Permian location well below where marketed deals command. Admiral Permian Resources has been the flagship of that platform. Today, we are introducing another partner. retic Creek Resources is a Midland-based operator our partnership with them is focused on the Midland Basin.

The core of the group worked at Henry Resources where they drilled, completed and produced more than 200 horizontal wells between 2014 and 2024. We retails management has helped build 5 Permian Basin ventures, including Bold Energy, 1, 2 and 3 and OxboPetroleum, and its business development team has executed more than $8 billion of upstream transactions. retaking Freeport's the same way Admiral does.

This land team builds positions through grassroots leasing and joint ventures with large overlapping asset managers. We provide the capital that we control what is drilled and win. Arete spud its first well under our partnership in October, and we expect them to run a rig during 2027. Outside the Permian, we have built a nonoperated position in the Utica Shale that we're increasingly proud of.

We hold about 6,300 net acres and produce about 3,000 net BOE per day from our interest in over 100 gross producing wells. We built this position from scratch over the past 2 years through a high volume of small deals and count these opportunities among the most economic in our portfolio. During the quarter, we closed 20 acquisitions for $19 million adding 8 net locations at an average entry cost of about $2.4 million per net location.

Also, we divested over $20 million of oil and gas properties in the DJ Basin at a 3.8x forward next 12-month EBITDA multiple. While there's been a lot of volatility at the front end of the , we continue to plan our business around the back of the curve. Every acquisition and every operator partnership well has to clear a full cycle return above 25% at the strip. And in today's backward market, those long-dated barrels are priced at $70 or below. We're not going to chase near-term prices or pay up for assets based on where the front month is trading.

Instead, we will continue to seek longer-dated development opportunities further out on the curve. keep our hedge program discipline and direct any excess cash to the priorities Kyle will lay out. Stepping back, the plan is working. Our traditional non-op business generates steady cash flow across 6 basins and our operator partnerships are compounding inventory and growth. Through the first 9 months of the year, our cash flow before capital changes, has funded our development capital.

Dividends and acquisitions have been funded from the balance sheet, but in 2027, that changes. We expect adjusted free cash flow to fund the dividend and the rest of our capital allocation priorities, leverage falling as our cash flow grows. With that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.

R. Kettler

Thank you, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. This is our strongest quarter of adjusted EBITDAX since we've been a public company, and I'll spend most of my time on what that means for 2027. But first, the results. Oil and natural gas sales were $177.2 million. On a GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $10.1 million or $0.08 per share driven by a $52.7 million loss on commodities derivatives, of which $31.8 million was unrealized.

Adjusted net income was $22.6 million or $0.17 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDAX was $107.3 million, up 36% and from $78.6 million a year ago and 35% from $79.6 million last quarter. Cash flow from operations was $87 million or $96.6 million before working capital changes. Our unhedged realized price was $55.60 per BOE and $49.4 per BOE, excluding settled derivatives. LOE was $30.1 million or $9.43 per BOE down from $10.27 per BOE in the second quarter. Last quarter, we said we expected per unit cost to improve sequentially as new volumes came on and they did. But LOE is still high, mainly from saltwater disposal costs tied to higher water cuts and flowback, along with related surface equipment rentals and contract labor. Production and ad valorem taxes were $10.3 million or 6% of sales. Cash G&A was $8.7 million or $2.73 per BOE. We invested $90.8 million of drilling and completion capital weight and hedges rolling off -- we see 2027 EBITDAX well in excess of the third quarter annualized EBITDAX. With that, I'll turn it back over to you, Tyler.

Tyler Farquharson

Thanks, Kyle. Let me close with 3 points. First, the inflection is underway. Volumes are growing, oil mix is rising, gas realizations have covered and our cash flow is caught up with our development spending. We defined adjusted free cash flow plainly and told you how we will use it. Second, our operator partnership platform is broadening.

With that roll now Retake Creek, have 2 Permian partners sourcing attractively priced locations that extend our controlled development runway. Third, Gray Roth. In August, affiliates of Gray Rock distributed 14 million Brant Ridge shares with the limited partners of Gray Rock Energy Fund III. IROC ownership is now approximately 39% and and Granite Ridge is no longer a controlled company. We are completing the transition to a majority independent Board and fully independent committees within the periods that ICC standards provide.

Gray Rock has indicated that it expects additional distributions. The size and timing of any future distributions are at Gray Rock's discretion, we would refer you to BraRock's Section 13D filings. We view the first distribution as a healthy step. It expanded our float and has meaningfully increased trading liquidity and which makes Brandon reach more investable for a broader set of institutions.

We are excited about where this company is headed and we look forward to delivering on it. With that, operator, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question or comment comes from the line of Michael Scialla from Stephens.

分析師問答

Michael Scialla

I wanted to get some high-level thoughts, Kyle, you mentioned the slide showing where you think EBITDA will land. Just some of the assumptions built into that production, I guess, should we be thinking kind of high single-digit growth and CapEx kind of flattish year-over-year? Is that fair? Any more you could offer on that?

R. Kettler

That's a completely fair assessment of it. we're targeting just about 10% production growth year-on-year. I think we have a little bit extra weighting on the oil side and that production growth. And then if you take into consideration our hedge book rolling off, those are the really 3 kind of simple key things to look at to pencil out where 2026, Q3 '26 annualized EBITDA goes into '27 estimated on that page.

Michael Scialla

Great. Appreciate that. And Tyler, you mentioned the changes with great rock and changes on the board. Anything we should expect in terms of changes with direction of the company with those.

Tyler Farquharson

The short answer is no, not at all. The Board is completely committed to the strategy that we have laid out. You've seen us transform the business over the past couple of years to be more focused on controllable development via the operator partners. We now have 4 partners. We'll continue to add partners in the future. That's been very successful for us. We've been able to capture inventory at less than $2.5 million per net location in the Permian, which we think is a pretty good value.

So we're moving into a little more maturity with Admiral, obviously, running 2 rigs, but we're excited now that Retake Creek is picking up a rig with us. We've actually drilled a handful of wells with them. already this quarter, and then we expect to run a rig full time with them starting in 2027. So the Board is fully committed to the strategy.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Derek Whitfield from Texas Capital.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with your rate partnership disclosure. How would you characterize the depth of their gross locations, their ability to continue to source inventory and how the quality of the inventory compares versus your average -- the average of your partnerships?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes, you bet. So first, the Renta Creek team is very accomplished on both the commercial side as well as the development side. a large portion of the team came out of Henry Resources. They had a very successful exit a few years ago. chunks of the team have also been involved with various entities that they've built and flipped over the years. They've drilled over 200 horizontal wells over 10 years.

So the development front execution side very accomplished. On the commercial side, equally as accomplished. their business development team and commercial sourcing team is closed over $8 billion of transactions. That is incredible. This is a Midland-based team. They have very deep networks based in Midland. So we're highly confident in their ability to source opportunity that's more proprietary in nature, and we'll continue to build on what we've done with the Admiral team sourcing opportunity from those types of markets as well.

So we're about a year into it with a retake Creek. We like to let teams have some time to build up some inventory in front of them. We're proud to report that Arete's already secured at least half a dozen or so DSUs, 40-something gross locations and has enough for us to commit to picking up a rig with them in 2027. I fully expect them to be able to continue to add a lot more inventory to what they currently have just like our admiral team.

So this is a development strategy first. I'd like to talk about Admiral and Rete is hitting singles over and over again, but driving in a lot of runs. So this is -- they will be focused on the Midland Basin. That's not to say that they won't do deals in other parts of the Permian Basin, but where we expect them to find opportunities in the Midland Basin, and they've done a heck of a job so far.

Derrick Whitfield

Great color. And as my follow-up, I wanted to shift over to your buyback authorization it would seem on our math, which is clearly share price dependent that you guys could buy back a substantial amount of Gray Rock's future distributions. Is that a fair read based on where those lie today?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes, absolutely. We set the authorization of $35 million to start with. Obviously, where the stock is trading, we're trading at less than 2.5x consensus. I think if you look at where we think cash flow potential is for next year, we're trading at even less than that. So we'd love to own more of this company. We set the authorization at $35 million initially. We'll see how that goes. It's completely opportunistic. as Kyle mentioned, and the Board can come back in the future and raise that or cancel it at any time.

So -- we wanted to kind of dip our toe in the water here to start with. We set it pretty low. It's about 5%-ish of current market cap. But we'd love to own more of this business, certainly with where -- the current consensus numbers are at less than 2.5x '27, and we think '27 should even north of where consensus currently is. So Yes. But you're right, we could buy a lot more.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Jeff Grant from Northland Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Grampp

Was CareTyler, on the operator partnership front, given kind of the focus and shift here to free cash flow positive and the progress you've made with the partners you have what's the appetite to add more partnerships?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. We're always -- that's a good question. We're always looking at -- when is the right time to add more. We could. It's something we discuss all the time. I think we'd like to see how '27 goes. We'd like to get a retake Creek and their rigs to. We have a couple of other partners that we haven't discussed with you all yet. that are working on some things in the background that we think could start to layer in, in maybe late '27 and in '28 and beyond.

So we're interested in seeing how those develop over the next, call it, 6, 9 months. So there is some more in the background that we haven't talked with you all about -- we talk a lot about the operator partnership platform. Most of our capital goes into that line of business, but we do have a lot going on in the Utica via our traditional non-op business. We really like the returns there. We've built a position over the past 1.5 years, 2 years of over 6,000 net acres. We've done it at a very attractive entry cost.

That business itself right now is generating about 3,000 BOE a day net to us. We have over 100 gross wells online that we're participating in, and we're continuing to find a ton of opportunity there. So we have the 3 or 4 partners that we've disclosed publicly, there's a few others that are working in the background, plus we have the Utica program up and running. So there's a lot on the plate and we're really excited about where it's headed.

And I think we're happy with where we're at now, and we'll see how '27 goes.

R. Kettler

Yes. I'd add, Tyler, to that. the way this operated partnership business model works is we've got '27 and '28 laid out, and we can start thinking about '29, '30 and '31 in so to your point, Jeff, we can always look into doing more work with existing operator partners as they grow and flourish, and we can look at bringing others into the fold. But we're thinking years down the road now because we've got the near-term set up for us.

Jeffrey Grampp

Great. Super helpful details. My other question is on the acquisition you guys did in the quarter. It looks like the cost per location went up a bit sequentially -- is that just a function of higher commodity prices driving some increased cost while still making sense from a hurdle rate perspective or any other factors driving those specific locations to be a bit more expensive than the recent averages.

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. Yes. No, that's a good question. And $2.5 million per net location is still extremely incredible in our view, and it just continues to build on our track record of what we've been doing in the past couple of years in that space. But Specifically, to answer your question, we did 20 deals during the quarter, we closed 20 deals during the quarter. There was a higher -- I just mentioned how proud we are of the Utica program. There was a higher percentage this quarter of transactions that closed in the Utica.

So those wells in the Utica are of 15,000, 20,000 foot average lateral versus what we're buying in the Permian is normalized to a 10,000-foot lateral. So that's the difference. We're just getting more lateral feet. But on a per foot basis, it's all been consistent and in line with where we've been.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We have a question -- a follow-up from Mr. Michael Scialla from Stephens.

Michael Scialla

Yes. You mentioned, Tyler, that you sold some DJ assets. Just wondering anything else that you could be potentially looking to divest.

Tyler Farquharson

All of that is opportunistic, right? We're not looking to systematically dispose of any assets -- but we do have a large nonoperated footprint across 6 different basins, thousands of wells. So from time to time, there's opportunities that come across our desk that make a lot of sense. I think Kyle will walk you through some of the multiples on why that made sense to us. But from my standpoint, we're always evaluating things in the non-op portfolio.

Again, it's a huge footprint. So from time to time, there are things that are interesting, but it's not a larger strategy of monetizing assets.

R. Kettler

Yes. I'd add that this was largely, I'd say, kind of a cleanup exercise. It was about 800 gross wells, so a good proportion of producing wells with very small working interest. highly gas concentrated asset, too. And so it made sense just when we were taking the portfolio to shed those assets. And it worked out that we got a really good multiple of forward EBITDA at 3.8x.

Michael Scialla

Makes sense. I wanted to ask on your LOE came down a bit in the third quarter from second quarter on per BOE basis, how are you thinking about op costs for 2027. Should we anticipate with the growth that continues to come down? Or just any color you can add there?

Tyler Farquharson

Yes. there we still consider the dollar per BOE high. We're going to see aggregate costs going up just because we have production going up. We've increased guidance on LOE as a result. I think as we have -- I guess, you can think about like we had about 18 wells come online in the first 3 quarters of this year, and we've got a number of them coming on in the fourth quarter and then growth '27 -- so I think as we drill more, that number is going to hopefully come off and be close to where we are in guidance.

Michael Scialla

Got it. And on your leverage looks like it's going to come down naturally, I guess, with the EBITDA growth next year? Do you have any plans to try and reduce debt? Or you just kind of let that leverage come down naturally?

Tyler Farquharson

We are fortunate. It looks like with the trajectory of EBITDA leverage on a debt-to-EBITDA basis is going to come down pretty materially. I'd say we got free cash flow going into 2027. that's going to compete with everything else, but we do want to watch it closely and keep a pretty safe balance sheet.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

I'm showing no additional questions in the queue at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

Tyler Farquharson

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.