德州太平洋土地公司 (TPL) 2026 年第 3 季法說會：營收與產量創新高

重點摘要

• 德州太平洋土地公司（Texas Pacific Land Corporation）連續第三季創下總營收、淨利與自由現金流的歷史新高。2026 年第三季營收達 2.73 億美元，年增 35%，季增 11%。
• 調整後 EBITDA 年增 37% 至 2.38 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達 87%。自由現金流年增 39% 至 1.7 億美元。
• 權利金石油日產量達到創紀錄的 17,100 桶，而總產量亦創下每日 42,300 桶油當量的季度新高。
• 隨著二疊紀盆地新增管線運力緩解了區域瓶頸與價格差價，天然氣實際售價從第二季的每千立方英尺 0.40 美元上升至第三季的 2.40 美元。
• 採出水權利金處理量季增 14%、年增 27%，創下每日 550 萬桶的歷史新高。售水量則與上一季大致持平，為每日 672,000 桶。
• TPL 在該季結束時擁有 3.7 億美元現金、零負債，以及未動用的 5 億美元信貸額度。季末之後，公司在米德蘭郡與格拉斯考克郡收購了約 9,700 英畝地表土地及 238 淨權利金英畝。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

石油與天然氣權利金

權利金產量受惠於 TPL 土地範圍內的持續開發以及有利的大宗商品實際售價。石油日產量達 17,100 桶，總日產量增至 42,300 桶油當量，雙雙創下單季新高。

TPL 仍維持完全未避險狀態，得以掌握中東衝突持續帶來的較高油價。管理層亦指出，二疊紀盆地鑽機數量增加以及新增水平井許可量創歷史新高，均為未來業務活動的有利指標。

儘管亨利港（Henry Hub）價格相對持平，天然氣實際售價仍從第二季的每千立方英尺 0.40 美元上升至 2.40 美元。管理層將此改善歸功於新增管線運力，有效減緩了瓦哈樞紐（Waha Hub）的壅塞並收窄了基差。

TPL 在季末擁有 16.8 口淨可預見井，包括 5.7 口淨已獲許可井、8.6 口淨已鑽但未完井（DUC）及 2.5 口淨已完井但未投產井。庫存減少的原因在於營運商將 DUC 與已完井轉入投產的速度，快於新鑽探補充的速度。

地表租約、地役權及建材業務

地表租約、地役權及建材業務營收總計 3,600 萬美元，季增 53%。成長動能來自 TPL 土地範圍內的天然氣、液化天然氣、電力與公用事業基礎設施。

管理層表示，西德州與工業、製造業、電力及資料中心發展相關的基礎設施擴建仍處於初期階段。

水處理業務

售水量平均為每日 672,000 桶，與第二季大致持平。管理層表示，完井活動加速緩慢，而區域天然氣價格疲軟促使活動從德拉瓦盆地轉向米德蘭盆地，並從德州轉向新墨西哥州。

採出水權利金處理量達到創紀錄的每日 550 萬桶。完井活動減少亦使得需要回注處理（而非回收利用）的採出水量增加，進而支撐了穿越 TPL 土地進行回注的運輸量。

在奧拉（Orla）2b 期淡化設施中，試車工作持續使用合成採出水鹽水進行。相鄰的草地復育區已經完工，TPL 預計在年底前將油田現場採出水引入該設施，具體取決於試車進度。

資料中心與電力基礎設施

TPL 表示，儘管專案規劃、設計、盡職調查和現場工作均取得進展，但多個專案的商業協議仍在協商中。該公司預計在 2027 年投入資本用於輸配水與水處理基礎設施，為電力及資料中心專案提供初期服務。

管理層指出提案徵求書（RFP）與詢問量持續維持高水準，但尚未宣布新的重大商業協議。TPL 正在定位其整合水處理業務，以供應非飲用水、飲用水及高規格去離子水。

管理層展望

管理層預期 TPL 的傳統業務在未來幾季將表現更強勁，主因許可證數量增加、盆地鑽機數量上升，以及第四季水處理完井時程更為充實。

該公司認為，鑽機活動增加最終應能使新鑽探與 DUC 的消耗達到平衡。管理層亦表示，二疊紀盆地的石油產量在 2027 年再創歷史新高的可能性愈來愈大，不過這僅代表其當前評估，而非正式的產量指引。

在淡化處理方面，TPL 計劃在年底前從合成鹽水過渡至現場採出水。商業化設施的時間點與規模將取決於與上游營運商及超大型資料中心客戶的洽談情況。

風險與關注領域

• 德州監管機構接獲指示審查大用電負載的電網互連，並在該審查及額外環境評估完成前暫停資料中心的許可審批。管理層預期短期內許可審批可能面臨延遲。
• 即將上任的德州州長其具體政策方針尚不明朗。儘管如此，TPL 預期該州對資料中心發展的整體策略仍將保持審慎適度，而非實施全面禁令。
• 空氣許可證、水資源可用性、社區參與、交通、噪音以及電價可負擔性，仍是西德州資料中心專案的重要考量因素。
• 隨著營運商消耗 DUC 並陸續完井，短期油井庫存有所下降。庫存補充取決於鑽機與水力壓裂運力的持續增加。
• 德拉瓦盆地與米德蘭盆地之間，以及德州與新墨西哥州之間的活動轉移，可能影響 TPL 的售水組合與基礎設施需求。

分析師問答重點

分析師高度關注德州政治局勢變化對資料中心發展的影響。管理層坦言許可審批可能變得更加困難，並影響近期專案時程。然而，管理層認為西德州憑藉其偏遠鄉村地理位置、天然氣資源、非飲用水供應以及社區對工業發展的接受度，依然非常適合大規模運算。

在核心業務方面，管理層指出許可量增加、鑽機數量攀升以及第四季更充實的完井時程，均為業務活動改善的明證。TPL 亦在擴大新墨西哥州與米德蘭盆地的水處理能力，同時開發盆地外處理與淡化方案，以因應德拉瓦盆地未來水量的增長。

關於淡化處理，管理層表示下一階段取決於上游營運商與超大型客戶的商業需求。目前正在評估的潛在資料中心應用包括採出水利用、廢熱回收、冷凍法處理製程及晶片直接液冷技術。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Texas Pacific Land Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Shawn Amini, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations at Texas Pacific Land Corporation. Thank you. Shawn, you may begin.

Shawn Amini

Thank you for joining us today for Texas Pacific Land Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday afternoon, the company released its financial results and filed its Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is available on the Investors section of the company's website at www.texaspacific.com.

As a reminder, remarks made on today's conference call may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed today. We do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

For a more detailed discussion of the factors that may affect the company's results, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and our recent SEC filings. During this call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. More information about and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures are contained in our earnings release for this quarter and our SEC filings.

Please also note, we may at times refer to our company by its stock ticker, TPL. This morning's conference call is hosted by TPL's President and Chief Executive Officer, Ty Glover; TPL's Chief Financial Officer, Chris Steddum; and Executive Vice President of Texas Pacific Water Resources, Robert Crain. Management will make some prepared comments, after which we will open the call for questions. Now, I will turn the call over to Ty.

Tyler Glover

Good morning, everyone. For the third consecutive quarter, TPL generated record quarterly total revenue, net income and free cash flow. These results were supported by continued strong development activity across our royalty acreage, supportive commodity price realizations, increased pipeline easement revenue and record produced water royalty volumes.

Starting with oil and gas royalties, oil production of 17,100 barrels per day and total daily production of 42,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day both represent quarterly records. Record production is notable given that oil entered this year below $60 per barrel and upstream operators collectively were dropping rigs.

Oil and gas royalty revenues have benefited from sustained high oil prices as conflict in the Middle East has persisted. We have been and continue to remain today completely unhedged, allowing us to realize the full upside to elevated oil prices. Over the last few months, we have seen an acceleration in Permian activity levels, which we believe will support strong growth for TPL in the basin overall.

Operators were initially cautious for the first part of 2026, unsure of how long the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices would last. In the third quarter of this year, rig counts inflected higher and new permits for horizontal wells set a basin record.

As oil prices have remained strong, we expect the outlook for near-term basin growth to strengthen. New natural gas pipeline capacity has helped to debottleneck the in-basin gas glut, which has alleviated negative prices at the Waha Hub and compressed local basis differentials to U.S. Gulf Coast markets.

TPL's natural gas price realizations improved from $0.40 per thousand cubic feet in the second quarter to $2.40 in the third quarter despite relatively flat benchmark Henry Hub pricing over the same period. The natural gas pipeline egress in the Permian expected to expand substantially in coming years. We're optimistic that prolonged periods of negative prices and wide basis for in-basin gas are behind us.

Our surface leases, easements and materials business, which we refer to as SLEM, had a great quarter with quarterly revenues of $36 million, a 53% sequential increase. Performance was driven by natural gas, natural gas liquids, electric and utility infrastructure growth across our land position.

We're still in the early stages of growth in West Texas for new infrastructure across industrial, manufacturing, power and data centers, and our massive land footprint is well positioned to benefit. We are also investing in additional surface-related opportunities to capture this industrial boom.

Turning to our water business. Water sales volumes were 672,000 barrels per day for the quarter, roughly flat sequentially. Completion activity in the Permian has been slow to ramp even as oil prices have stayed high. Due to weak in-basin gas pricing for most of this year, we've seen an intra-basin shift from the Delaware to Midland as well as an intra-Delaware shift from Texas to New Mexico. In response, we've been increasing our efforts to expand our reach into New Mexico and Midland Basin more broadly.

Our ability to procure produced water for recycling is a major factor that allows us to maintain a presence in New Mexico, especially given operator preferences to reduce disposal needs. Although our acreage is less concentrated in the Midland Basin, we leverage third-party disposal systems on and off our acreage to facilitate completion water sales.

Beyond some of these regional intra-basin dynamics, the near-term water sales outlook for the Permian overall is constructive. As noted, the Permian's record new permits and rising rig counts are leading indicators of higher completion activity and corresponding higher water demand. Produced water royalties had an excellent quarter with record revenue and volumes.

Volumes reached a record 5.5 million barrels per day, which represents growth of 14% sequentially and 27% year-over-year. The near-term and long-term fundamental backdrop for Permian produced water remains strong as activity levels and rising water-to-oil ratios support volume growth.

Recent performance has also been supported by an additional factor. As completion activity declined in the first half of this year, produced water that would otherwise have been recycled for completions instead requires injection into pore space. Thus, more volumes have to move across TPL land for injection into pore space directly on or adjacent to us. This dynamic creates a natural hedge for our water business. Periods of tepid demand for completion water can simultaneously provide tailwinds for our produced water royalties.

Turning to produced water desalination and beneficial reuse. We have made encouraging progress at our Orla Phase 2b facility during the quarter. Our adjacent grassland rehabilitation plot is complete and ready to receive water under our approved land application permit.

With respect to our Texas Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, or TPDES, permit, we hope to receive the final draft of the discharge permit from the TCEQ shortly. In August, we held an on-site grand opening ceremony, which hosted more than 150 guests from across the industry, local and state government, research community, major energy companies and hyperscalers.

Since then, our commissioning process continues, we are inletting increasing concentrations of synthetically produced water brine as we test and calibrate equipment, finalize various process integrations and develop standard operating procedures. Additionally, we are establishing the data collection framework that will allow longer-term efficiency tracking and optimization of the desalination process.

By the end of the year, we hope to flow field-produced water into the Orla facility. We also continue to work on designs related to data center and power generation specific research and development initiatives to further the co-location of produced water desalination facilities.

Turning to our data center efforts. We're working diligently on a number of projects throughout our land position, although commercial agreements are still being negotiated, a significant amount of diligence, project planning and design and site work has progressed.

Recent regulatory moratoriums and new incoming governor at the state level are a couple more things the industry will have to navigate. The outgoing Texas governor directed regulators and ERCOT to conduct a verification and audit for grid-connected projects in ERCOT's large load interconnection process.

Subsequently, the governor also directed the TCEQ to pause issuance of permits to data centers pending the ERCOT review and incorporating other incremental environmental items. And although it's still early, we believe the new incoming governor will take a similarly measured approach to data center development in the state.

With much of West Texas data center projects anticipated to be behind the meter and in relatively rural areas, it does reduce some complexity relative to grid-connected projects that have to undergo interconnection studies. Air permits, water and community engagement remain pertinent for projects and significant focus points for many developers.

It's worth noting that these elements were already major points of emphasis from developers preceding the governor directive and recent election. These actions to date add to the diligence checklist, but these are not viewed as a blanket ban.

Furthermore, and this is true regardless of who's in power, virtually every hyperscaler and AI lab customer we're working with has been extremely focused on minimizing environmental and affordability externalities while maximizing community benefit. This dynamic is largely why these deals take so long to finalize.

Economic terms are obviously important, but customers want to ensure these community issues are proactively resolved and ultimately a net benefit to the local population. In total, we have not sensed waning motivation from landowners, developers and customers to get hyperscale projects built.

As it stands today, we expect to spend capital next year on water-related distribution and treatment infrastructure to serve the initial in-service of power and data center projects. Developers of gigawatt scale infrastructure have spent a lot of time optimizing designs for the unique attributes of West Texas and the scope of these projects continues to evolve. We're collaborating closely with the developers on land, water and easements. For water, quality specification and quantity span across a wide gamut.

TPL's water business is vertically integrated and capable of providing high volumes of non-potable, potable and high-spec demineralized water. Inbounds for quotes and RFPs remain very high, and we've established commercial teams dedicated solely to data center and power customers. We don't have a new major announcement today, but the backlog is robust, and we're well positioned to bring multiple hyperscale projects to West Texas in the near term. And with that, I'll hand the call over to Chris.

Chris Steddum

Thanks, Ty. Consolidated revenues during the third quarter of 2026 were approximately $273 million. This was an all-time high, up 11% sequentially and 35% year-over-year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $238 million, which was up 11% sequentially and 37% year-over-year.

Our adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 87%. Free cash flow was $170 million, which was up 10% sequentially and 39% year-over-year. Net income was $167 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, up 38% year-over-year.

Moving to our well inventory. As of quarter end, TPL had 5.7 net permitted wells, 8.6 net drilled but uncompleted wells, commonly referred to as DUCs and 2.5 net completed, but not producing wells, which we refer to as CUPs. This amounts to 16.8 net line-of-sight wells. Well inventory has declined from recent levels. However, new wells placed on production still supported continued production growth for TPL.

As Ty noted, operators spent the first part of the year drawing down DUCs and CUPs to support strong levels of new wells placed on production. High oil prices incentivize this behavior. With the rigs largely declining, well inventory was converted to production faster than new spuds could replenish inventory. The same dynamic has played out basin-wide. The Permian is setting new highs for oil production, while DUC inventory is down from a year ago.

Over the long term, however, wells turned to sales are limited by how many wells operators spud and complete and DUC inventory is finite. We just started seeing rig additions in the third quarter, which should continue to rise through year-end. As rig counts rise and new spuds increase, the DUC drawdown will level off as new wells drilled and new wells placed on production come into balance.

Historically, sustained high oil prices lead operators to build DUCs and record new horizontal well permits in the third quarter suggest the Permian is currently on the same path. All that said, we're not concerned by the drop in near-term well inventory. DUCs and CUPs can naturally be replenished as rigs and frac spreads are added.

Despite entering 2026 with 5-handle oil, the Permian will once again set a new oil production record this year. And given the activity ramp we're now seeing, it's looking increasingly certain that 2027 will also be another record production year. From our vantage point, the Permian oil machine and by extension, TPL is not even close to slowing down.

Turning to our balance sheet. At quarter end, TPL had $370 million of cash and cash equivalents and no debt with our $500 million credit facility remaining undrawn. After quarter end, we acquired approximately 9,700 surface acres and 238 net royalty acres in Midland and Glasscock counties.

This acreage sits in a high-quality subregion within the Midland Basin and is checkerboarded with 4 legacy TPL sections. The acquired acreage currently generates cash flow from source and produced water, SLEM and mineral interest. The acquisition augments our Midland Basin footprint where we can apply our existing commercial capabilities and expand capture on and off ranch.

Post acquisition, we continue to maintain a pristine balance sheet. We have tremendous flexibility to create value for shareholders as this is an opportunity-rich environment across organic investment, bolt-ons and M&A. We can also opportunistically lean into buybacks given the recent volatility induced by midterms and perceived impacts on the energy and data center industries in Texas.

Meanwhile, current high oil prices augments our free cash flow profile, enabling us to efficiently recycle cash towards attractive growth opportunities or expanded return of capital to shareholders. We remain very focused and disciplined as we look to maximize long-term intrinsic value per share. And with that, operator, we will now take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital.

分析師問答

Derrick Whitfield

Congrats on a very strong quarter. I'd like to start with the market and political landscape given the impact it had on your stock yesterday. The Blue Wave and change in Texas Governor leadership is perceived to be a headwind to your business. As I think about it, any political or regulatory rebuke against data centers actually makes the case for what you're pursuing with Bolt even stronger, not weaker. A, is that a fair assessment? And b, if so, what's your greatest concern in the new political landscape?

Tyler Glover

Thanks, Derrick. I think that's a fair assessment. Did things get slightly more difficult in Texas? Yes, but they certainly haven't gotten any easier in any other states. So I think the political change, one, just makes us more bullish on West Texas for data centers and compute.

When you think about the concerns of the governor, those are the same concerns that we've been hearing from local communities that we've been talking to out there for the last 1.5 years. And so we've already started working to design these facilities to address those concerns like cheaper power, concerns around using municipal water, traffic and noise.

So I think the type of site that we are trying to build will become the blueprint for how you have to build these things in Texas. And I think the lack of population in West Texas, cheap gas, abundant water, brackish non-potable water, all makes West Texas just the place for large-scale compute to be built.

So again, we're just more bullish. Does it affect the timing of some of these projects in the near term? Yes. But I think it's a net positive for the long-term value proposition for TPL and West Texas more broadly. So look, I think will we have to figure out how to navigate this in the near term? Certainly. But again, I think it's a net positive for TPL and we're just more and more bullish as we go on the value proposition for power generation and compute in West Texas.

Derrick Whitfield

Terrific. And regarding the base business, just on the intra-basin and across basin moves you noted, could you -- I guess, how would you characterize from what you've seen today, how the production and water trajectories look over the next couple of quarters? I'm not asking for like a 2027 guide, but just with how you see the pieces that have moved to date, just how do you think that looks for the business, that base business?

Tyler Glover

Well, we've definitely seen an uptick in permitting. The overall basin rig count is climbing. The percentage of rigs on our acreage versus the basin has continued to climb. Our completion schedule on the water side is much more robust for the fourth quarter than it was third quarter. So I think the next couple of quarters are going to be much stronger kind of across our legacy business for TPL.

Robert Crain

I mean, when we look at that shift, we've seen this shift to Midland Basin coming for a while. I think it's got different characteristics and reasons why it occurred. I think water is probably one of them. And we start to see some -- over the last, let's say, years, some maybe spatial challenges in water handling. I think it just goes even further to say what we've started creating for solutions on the water side, out-of-basin disposal, desal. When we see this shift back to the Delaware, there's going to be higher water volumes to handle. We're putting the framework in place for how to handle that through additional out-of-basin capacity. What we know is going to be the eventual pivot to beneficial reuse and desal and be ready for this activity level when it returns to the Delaware.

Operator

Our next question is from Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Timothy Rezvan

Ty, I appreciated the prepared comments that it's been sort of a shoot first, ask questions later kind of response yesterday and today on the Blue Wave. I was curious, I think not a lot of people assumed Abbott would lose. Did you or anybody else in the organization have discussions with the incoming governor before to understand their positions and where I'm going. Is there any specificity that you can see on what might change either on permitting or developing or time lines? Just any insight would be helpful, if you have any.

Tyler Glover

I don't think we have any real clear insight on where things are going. I mean, I'll be honest, we were in the camp of thinking that Abbott would get reelected. But from what the new governor has put out so far, I mean, we don't expect the view on data centers in Texas and how those are developed to change too significantly.

Robert Crain

I'll say we're heavily engaged in Austin. Again, not saying that anybody saw this coming. But when we're engaged on the regulatory side and on the legislative side as well, I'll reiterate, I think, what Ty said in his first comments of our blueprint for what kind of functional data center and power gen build-out should be.

I completely agree that it strengthens the West Texas thesis. If we look at short-term what permitting is going to look like. Obviously, there's still the moratorium in place that Abbott put on. We're going to continue to work with the regulators to say, okay, what does that proper siting do? I think, again, it strengthens our thesis, probably some short-term headwinds just from a permitting standpoint.

But long term, I think it continues to, if you say, force to compute to the Permian because of the attributes. I think when you look at Permian, too, you have to look at now -- you're going to not just kind of those quantitative inputs of the commodities, the land and the water and the gas.

But I think you also have to look at just the community's acceptance and kind of qualitative acceptance that West Texas sees toward data centers. And if you look at the Permian, it's a more transient community. It's always been that work community. I think the community as a whole are starting to see compute as a way not only get another industry in, but continue to prop up what is West Texas in the upstream side of the world.

Timothy Rezvan

Okay. I appreciate the comments. I know we're about 36 hours into digesting all this, so thank you. As my follow-up, your slide deck had some cursory comments about next steps on the desalination progress. And I know time lines are hazy right now given everything that's happened this week.

But can you just talk about kind of what you would need to see to kind of -- you talked about 2027 and beyond procurement of equipment for a commercial scale facility. Maybe just talk about the next steps on desalination and given the progress to date.

Robert Crain

Sure. Right now, as Ty mentioned in the prepared remarks, commissioning continues. We -- the reason we do synthetic brines to start out, we're being very deliberate in our approach of the commissioning of the system. It's a very complex system with a lot of data sensors and inputs. And when we -- why we run synthetic brines is mainly from a characteristics and waste standpoint. So short term, by the end of the year, we pivot from synthetic brines over to actual produced water and let the system start to run.

When we think about next level initiatives and commercial interest, somewhat twofold. One, when we look at traditional just upstream offtake, a lot of interest from the operators, what does an offtake agreement look like. But then the second piece has been the increasing interest from the hyperscaler community. And for that, it's kind of twofold. We look at the research initiatives that we've talked about before, waste heat capture, possible implementation of our freeze and direct chip cooling. But kind of high level, just what does the use of produced water look like in a data center. Can you pivot back to an evaporative model?

So over the next couple of months, it's going to depend completely on commercial conversations on both those fronts from the upstream side and the hyperscaler side, what the scale-up look like and what does the ultimate use of that water and compute look like.

Timothy Rezvan

I appreciate that, Robert. I know it's still early days.

Operator

This now concludes our question-and-answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.