JELD-WEN (JELD) 2026 年第三季法說會：需求放緩之際維持財測

重點速覽

• JELD-WEN 公布 2026 財年第三季淨營收為 7.99 億美元，年減 1%，主因銷量與產品組合下滑以及微幅匯兌逆風抵銷了漲價效益。
• 調整後 EBITDA 從 4,400 萬美元增至 5,400 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率上升 130 個基點至 6.8%。財報結果包含 1,160 萬美元的關稅退稅淨額。
• 自由現金流正數 1,500 萬美元。淨債務槓桿比率從第二季末的 11.3 倍改善至 10.3 倍，循環信貸額度已支用 1.15 億美元。
• 儘管管理層調降了北美與歐洲市場的假設預測，但仍維持全年淨營收 31 億至 32 億美元、調整後 EBITDA 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元的財測目標。
• JELD-WEN 預計於 11 月底前完成再融資交易，將債務到期日延長約五年至 2031 年，但每年利息支出將增加約 5,000 萬美元。
• 該公司已結束歐洲業務的戰略評估，決定保留該業務，並聚焦於營運改善、結構簡化與成本削減。

關鍵財務數據

調整後 EBITDA 變動分析（bridge）包含：生產力效益 1,000 萬美元、推銷及管理費用（SG&A）下降與其他項目帶來的淨效益 700 萬美元，以及關稅退稅淨額 1,160 萬美元。這些正面因素足以抵銷 1,400 萬美元的價格／成本逆風與 600 萬美元的銷量與產品組合逆風。

業務與營運表現

北美地區

北美市場營收從 5.46 億美元降至 5.3 億美元。核心營收下降 3%，主要原因為銷量減少。

調整後 EBITDA 從 3,800 萬美元增至 4,800 萬美元，利潤率從 6.9% 擴張至 9.1%。生產力提升與關稅退稅足以抵銷價格／成本壓力及銷量下滑。

北美地區的準時完整交貨率（OTIF）已從 7 月的約 85% 回升至 9 月及 10 月的略低於 90%。管理層表示，服務品質改善正協助公司找回先前流失的業務，但其目標仍是持續維持在 90% 以上。

歐洲地區

歐洲市場營收年增 2%，從 2.63 億美元升至 2.69 億美元，主要由產品提價推動，但部分被不利的匯率因素抵銷。

調整後 EBITDA 從 1,600 萬美元降至 1,500 萬美元，利潤率從 6.1% 降至 5.6%。生產力的改善被價格／成本壓力、銷量下滑及微幅的匯兌逆風所抵銷。

歐洲地區的準時完整交貨率（OTIF）約為 95%。管理層表示，DACH 地區（德國、奧地利與瑞士）是 JELD-WEN 在歐洲最大的市場區域，該地區良好的服務水準有助於維持、甚至微幅提升當地的市占率。

在完成戰略評估後，JELD-WEN 將保留歐洲業務。管理層計劃在歐洲區主管 Christian Michel 的領導下改善營運、簡化組織架構並掌握廣泛的成本改善機會。

管理層財測指引

儘管市場前景趨於疲軟，JELD-WEN 仍維持 2026 財年全年財測：

調整後 EBITDA 預測假設第四季不會有額外的關稅退稅。現金流指引不包含與計劃中再融資相關的費用，管理層預期該費用不會影響營運現金流或自由現金流。

管理層目前預計 2026 年北美門窗市場將下滑中單數百分比，相比先前預期的下滑低至中單數百分比。美國新建單戶住宅營建量亦預期將下滑中單數百分比，相比先前預測的下滑低單數百分比。

目前預計歐洲市場全年銷量將下滑低單數百分比，相比先前假設的大致持平。

在 2026 財年調整後 EBITDA 變動分析中，管理層將預期的銷量與產品組合逆風從 2,500 萬美元調增至約 3,000 萬美元，價格／成本逆風從 5,000 萬美元調增至約 6,000 萬美元。預期市占率淨流失帶來的逆風則從 2,000 萬美元改善至 500 萬美元。公司繼續預期將獲得約 1.2 億美元的生產力效益。

風險與關注焦點

• 管理層表示，第三季需求弱於預期，且 10 月銷售數據顯示疲態持續延續至第四季，並可能延續至 2027 年。
• 通膨壓力持續超過產品提價效益。採購材料中所含的貨運與更高運輸成本是主要的壓力來源。
• 產品定價競爭依然激烈，限制了公司全面抵銷成本通膨的能力。
• 計劃中的再融資將把債務到期日延長至 2031 年，但預計每年將增加約 5,000 萬美元的利息支出。
• 儘管淨債務槓桿比率較上季改善了整整 1.0 倍，但仍維持在 10.3 倍的高位。
• 管理層在拒絕提供詳細的 2027 年財測指引時，提出了投入成本高企、利率處於高位以及顯著波動等原因。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，支撐 2026 財年展望的大多數生產力措施均已執行，相關效益現已反映在損益表中。全年生產力假設與上一季相比保持不變。

關於 2027 年，管理層未提供具體指引。管理層預計目前的市場疲軟將持續至第四季並可能延伸至 2027 年，更詳細的展望預計將與第四季及 2026 全年財報一併公布。

在歐洲方面，管理層指出公司在平衡價格與成本壓力方面的成效高於北美。管理層亦表明歐洲市場可能已接近底部，但也承認由於需求持續疲軟，已調降全年市場展望。

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the JELD-WEN Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference call over to James Armstrong, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

James Armstrong

Thank you, and good morning. We issued our third quarter 2026 earnings release last night and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website, which can be found at investors.jeld-wen.com. We will be referencing this presentation during our call. Today, I am joined by Bill Christensen, Chief Executive Officer; Samantha Stoddard, Chief Financial Officer; and Jeff Embt, Chief Accounting Officer.

Before I turn it over to Bill, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. JELD-WEN does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements, including the guidance we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results.

Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix to our earnings presentation.

With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Bill.

William Christensen

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. Before turning to our results, I want to recognize the continued dedication of our associates across JELD-WEN. Our teams are working through a challenging environment while staying focused on our customers, improving how we operate and finding ways to make our business more efficient. Their efforts continue to make a meaningful difference, and I want to thank everyone for their continued commitment and hard work.

Turning to the business. The macro environment in the third quarter was slightly weaker than we had anticipated. We continue to experience soft market demand, and in some areas, we are seeing additional pressure on volume. Despite these headwinds, we continue to make progress in the areas within our control. We are managing our costs, improving productivity and maintaining our focus on customer service. Importantly, we believe our improved service levels are helping us regain market share that we had previously lost.

As shown on Slide 4, third quarter sales were $799 million. Our On-Time, In-Full delivery performance improved throughout the quarter, reaching just under 90% in September following some temporary disruptions early in the quarter that we discussed during our last earnings call. While we work towards more consistent performance above 90%, our customers continue to recognize the improvements we have made. Adjusted EBITDA was $54 million for the quarter, which included $11.6 million of net tariff refunds. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 6.8%, an increase of 130 basis points year-over-year.

Our results continue to reflect the benefits of improved execution, productivity and disciplined cost management as we manage through continued pressure on volumes and price/cost. Free cash flow was positive $15 million during the quarter, supported by tightly managed capital expenditures and sequential improvements in working capital. Cash generation remains an important priority, and we continue to take a disciplined approach to capital spending.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect market conditions to remain challenging with some additional demand pressure relative to what we experienced earlier in the year. We will continue to focus on what we can control, including aligning our operations and cost base with current demand. At the same time, we remain committed to providing our customers with dependable service, which is helping us regain business and improve our competitive position. I also want to spend a few minutes discussing 2 important strategic developments.

First, we have concluded the strategic review of our European business. After carefully evaluating the available alternatives, we believe the greatest opportunity to create long-term value is retaining the business with continued improvement of performance. With Christian Michel now leading Europe, we have the leadership and experience in place to accelerate operational improvements, streamline the business structure and address broader cost opportunities. We also believe that the European market is beginning to stabilize with opportunities for growth in the coming years. By improving our cost structure today, we believe we can position the business to deliver significantly stronger performance as market conditions improve.

Second, we are in the final stages of addressing our near-term debt maturities. We have made significant progress on a refinancing transaction that we expect to conclude at the end of November. Once completed, the transaction is expected to extend our debt maturities by approximately 5 years to 2031. We expect approximately $50 million in higher annual interest expense as a result of the refinancing. The refinancing would be an important milestone for JELD-WEN, providing greater financial flexibility and allowing us to focus more fully on improving the underlying performance of the business.

Importantly, it would give us additional time to execute our operational priorities, manage through the current soft demand environment and better position the company to benefit when our end markets recover. Taken together, we believe these developments represent meaningful progress in strengthening JELD-WEN for the future. We remain focused on improving execution, serving our customers and building a more efficient and competitive company.

Finally, I want to take a moment to recognize Samantha Stoddard, who has informed us of her decision to step down as Chief Financial Officer. I want to personally thank Samantha for her leadership, dedication and contributions to JELD-WEN, particularly as we have navigated a challenging period for our business. We appreciate her efforts and wish her all the best in the future. As part of this transition, Jeff Embt will assume the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer, in addition to his current role as Chief Accounting Officer. We are confident in Jeff's ability to provide continuity and leadership as we continue executing against our priorities, and I am pleased to have Jeff on our call today.

With that, I will hand it over to Samantha to review our financial results in greater detail.

Samantha Stoddard

Thank you, Bill. I want to thank Bill, the Board and my JELD-WEN colleagues for the opportunity to serve as CFO. I wish Jeff and the entire team all the best. Turning to the financial results on Slide 6. Third quarter net revenue was $799 million compared to $809 million in the third quarter of 2025, a decline of 1% year-over-year. The decrease was driven primarily by lower volume mix and a slight foreign exchange headwind, partially offset by higher pricing.

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $54 million compared to $44 million in the prior year period. As Bill mentioned earlier, our results included $11.6 million of net tariff refunds, which accounted for the majority of the year-over-year improvement. Excluding this benefit, continued productivity improvements were largely offset by ongoing price/cost pressure and lower volume mix.

Turning to cash flow. We generated $15 million of free cash flow during the third quarter, supported by continued discipline on capital expenditures and sequential improvements in working capital. We remain focused on managing cash closely, reducing working capital requirements and maintaining a disciplined approach to spending across the business. With improved earnings and cash generation, net debt leverage declined to 10.3x at the end of the third quarter, an improvement of 1 full turn from 11.3x at the end of the second quarter. At quarter end, we had $115 million drawn on our revolving credit facility. We remain focused on improving earnings, generating cash and maintaining balance sheet flexibility as we continue to manage through the current market environment.

Turning to Slide 7. The year-over-year change in revenue was driven by lower volume mix and a slight foreign exchange headwind, partially offset by higher pricing. Core revenue declined 1%, while foreign exchange represented a $3 million headwind. Taken together, these items resulted in a 1% decline in reported revenue for the quarter.

Turning to Slide 8. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $54 million compared to $44 million in the prior year quarter. The year-over-year improvement was driven by continued productivity gains, lower SG&A expenses and the benefit of net tariff refunds. Productivity contributed a $10 million benefit as we continue to drive costs out of the business. We also delivered meaningful SG&A savings, which combined with other items, resulted in a $7 million net benefit.

Additionally, we recognized $11.6 million of net tariff refunds during the quarter. These improvements more than offset continued market and cost pressures. Price/cost represented a $14 million headwind as inflation continued to exceed the benefit from pricing. Lower volume mix represented an additional $6 million headwind. While the market environment remains challenging, we continue to make meaningful improvements to our underlying cost structure. Our ongoing productivity initiatives and lower SG&A expense are helping us manage through softer demand and persistent cost pressures while positioning the business for improved profitability over time.

Turning to Slide 9 and our segment results. North America revenue was $530 million compared to $546 million in the prior year quarter. Core revenue declined 3% year-over-year, driven primarily by lower volumes. Adjusted EBITDA for North America was $48 million compared to $38 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 9.1% from 6.9%, an increase of 220 basis points. The improvement was driven by continued productivity gains and the benefit of tariff refunds, which more than offset ongoing price/cost headwinds and lower volumes.

In Europe, revenue was $269 million compared to $263 million in the prior year quarter, an increase of 2%. The improvement was driven primarily by higher pricing, partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. Adjusted EBITDA for Europe was $15 million compared to $16 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 5.6% compared to 6.1% in the prior year quarter. While we continue to deliver productivity improvements, those benefits were more than offset by price/cost pressures, lower volumes and a slight foreign exchange headwind.

I will now hand it back to Bill to discuss our market outlook.

William Christensen

Thanks, Samantha. Turning to Slide 11. I want to provide an update on our market outlook and the assumptions supporting our expectations for the remainder of 2026. As we move through the second half of the year, we are seeing softer demand conditions than we anticipated earlier in the year. The overall environment remains challenging, and we are adjusting our outlook to reflect the additional pressure we are seeing across our end markets.

In North America, we now expect the overall windows and doors market to decline in the mid-single digits compared to our previous expectation of low to mid-single digits. Within that outlook, we now anticipate U.S. new single-family construction to decline in the mid-single digits compared to low single digits previously. In Europe, we have also moderated our expectations and now anticipate full year market volumes to decline in the low single digits compared to our previous outlook for approximately flat volumes year-over-year. While we continue to believe the market is beginning to stabilize, demand is softer than we had previously anticipated.

At the company level, our performance remains broadly aligned with the underlying markets. Importantly, we believe our improved service levels are helping us regain some of the share we had previously lost. Customers continue to recognize the improvements we have made, and we continue to discuss opportunities to win additional business despite the softer market environment. However, pricing remains highly competitive, and we continue to take a disciplined approach to our commercial activities. As we manage through these conditions, our priorities remain in the areas where we can make the greatest impact.

We continue to take cost out of the business, improve productivity and align our operations with current demand levels while maintaining the service our customers expect. Overall, our market expectations have softened. However, we remain focused on improving the performance of our business through better execution, stronger customer relationships and continued cost discipline, positioning JELD-WEN to benefit when market conditions improve.

Turning to Slide 12. I want to walk through our updated full year 2026 guidance. Despite the softer market outlook we just discussed, we are maintaining our previous revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Our continued progress in taking costs out of the business, combined with opportunities to regain market share through improved service, is helping to partially offset the additional pressure we are seeing in our end markets. We continue to expect net revenue in the range of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion, with core revenue declining between 2% and 5% year-over-year.

While market volumes remain challenging, we are encouraged by the customer response to our improved service levels and the additional business opportunities we are seeing as a result. We are also maintaining our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $120 million to $150 million. This range does not assume any further tariff refunds in the fourth quarter. Our teams continue to identify and execute additional productivity initiatives and cost reductions across the business. These actions are helping us manage through lower market demand and persistent price/cost pressures.

Turning to cash flow. We are also maintaining our full year expectations. We continue to expect operating cash flow of approximately $10 million and free cash flow to be a use of approximately $75 million for the year. These expectations do not include the fees associated with our refinancing transaction, which we do not expect to impact operating or free cash flow. We continue to closely manage working capital and remain disciplined with capital spending, with full year capital expenditures expected to be approximately $85 million.

Turning to Slide 13. This chart bridges our 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $118 million to the midpoint of our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $135 million. Starting with the market, we now expect volume mix to represent an approximately $30 million headwind compared to $25 million previously. This reflects the further softening across our end markets that I discussed on the prior slide and is expected to continue through the current quarter. Partially offsetting this, we are seeing further improvements in our share position as our service levels continue to help us regain business with customers. As a result, we now expect net share loss to be a $5 million headwind compared to $20 million previously. This reflects the progress we are making in strengthening customer relationships and winning back business that we had previously lost.

We also continue to expect approximately $120 million of productivity benefits, including the carryover from our transformation initiatives and continued business rightsizing. Our teams remain focused on identifying additional opportunities to improve efficiency and reduce costs across the organization. These improvements are being offset by continued market and price/cost pressure. We now expect price/cost to be an approximately $60 million headwind compared to $50 million previously. The increase primarily reflects ongoing inflation, particularly in freight, and the impact of higher transportation costs on our purchased materials.

While we continue to take pricing actions where appropriate, the competitive environment remains challenging and cost pressures continue to exceed the benefits from pricing. The remaining items represent a net headwind of approximately $8 million, including variable compensation and other timing-related factors, partially offset by foreign exchange and other items.

Turning to Slide 14. I want to provide an update on our North America On-Time, In-Full performance and the progress we are making on customer service. As we discussed last quarter, our OTIF performance declined to approximately 85% in July, primarily due to temporary disruptions from Canadian wildfires. As those disruptions subsided, we saw a steady recovery throughout the third quarter, with OTIF improving to just under 90% in September and October. While we are encouraged by this improvement, our focus remains on returning to and sustaining service levels above 90% to build greater consistency across our operations.

As we have discussed previously, dependable service is critical to strengthening our customer relationships and improving our competitive position. Our customers continue to recognize the progress we have made, and we believe these improvements are helping us regain business that we have previously lost. We still have work to do, but the progress we are making reinforces our confidence in the actions we have taken. Maintaining strong service levels remains a priority as we continue to build customer trust, pursue new business opportunities and further improve overall performance.

Turning to Slide 15. I want to close by highlighting the priorities that will continue to guide us as we finish the year and look ahead. First, delivering consistent and dependable service remains a top priority. We have made significant improvements over the past year, and our customers are responding positively. We are seeing that progress translate into stronger relationships and opportunities to both regain business that we had previously lost and win new business as a result. While we are encouraged by these results, we need to continue building on this progress and consistently deliver the level of service our customers expect.

At the same time, we remain focused on improving the underlying performance of our business. With market conditions remaining challenging, we are continuing to take cost out of the organization, improve productivity and align our operations with current demand. We are also maintaining a disciplined approach to working capital and capital spending as we work to improve cash generation. Importantly, we are making meaningful progress on strengthening the company's longer-term financial position.

We expect to complete our debt refinancing by the end of November, which will provide additional financial flexibility and allow us to concentrate on executing our operational priorities. With the strategic review of Europe now concluded, we have a path forward in place to further improve the performance of that business and better position it for future growth.

Finally, I want to recognize our associates across JELD-WEN. The improvements we are making reflect their continued dedication, hard work and commitment to serving our customers. We know there's more work ahead, particularly in this difficult market environment, but I am encouraged by the progress we are making and the opportunities we have to build a stronger and more competitive company.

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to James for questions.

James Armstrong

Thanks, Bill. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

分析師問答

Anika Dholakia

Anika Dholakia on for Matt today. So first off, I want to start off on some of the productivity. So the full year guide implies a step-up in that productivity piece of the bridge from 3Q. I'm wondering how much of the required savings are already implemented versus dependent on maybe actions still underway? And then what types of initiatives would fall into this bucket?

Samantha Stoddard

Yes. This is Samantha. I can address that question. So versus 2Q, our productivity hasn't changed versus what we previously reported to the midpoint of our guidance. And the reason for that is most of this productivity has already been implemented. And so we are now reaping the benefits. The initiatives are completed, and we're seeing that play out in our P&L. The only change that we saw in our Q3 was that we did have a tariff refund that happened in Q3 that we had planned for and expected, and that we've called that out separately. But on the full year, there's been no change on the productivity.

Anika Dholakia

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then secondly, I guess -- so you recently gave some 2027 color alongside the maturity extensions. And I'm wondering, first off, does this outlook still hold given some of the softer end market trends that you guys have been seeing for 2026? And then second, what are some planning assumptions around each of the market trends as we get into 2027?

William Christensen

Yes. Thanks for your question. So as we shared, obviously, the market conditions currently are softer than we had expected. We've adjusted down our market expectations on growth, both in North America and in Europe. Based on our October sales, that softness is continuing. We would expect that to roll through the fourth quarter and likely into '27. We're not today planning to give specific guidance outside of saying that there is a lot of volatility in expectations, given input costs that are elevated and also interest rates that remain elevated. And so we would expect to be sharing a lot more detail in our February 4Q and 2026 results readout on how we're thinking about 2027. But I would support your hypothesis that the market is soft and continues to stay soft based on what we're seeing currently.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Leonie Zirn with UBS.

Leonie Zirn

One question on your European business a bit in detail. I mean, I see that you achieved 4% price increases, but volume only dipped minus 1%. So I'm just trying to understand, have competitors also increased prices? So overall, the industry maintained price levels? Or are you gaining some competitive advantages like you alluded to market shares before, in particular in Europe? And if so, any particular regions to highlight?

William Christensen

Yes, Leonie, thank you for your call. So we remain confident in our team's ability to execute on the pricing actions that we've talked about for many quarters across our different subsegments in the European market. So there are regions where we are able to put price through. As you know, the economic headwinds have accelerated dramatically based on some of the input costs, and we're focused on trying to balance that price/cost dynamic in Europe. And I think we're definitely doing a better job in Europe than we are in North America on that front.

I would say, overall, we don't typically comment on how other competitors are utilizing price in the market. I would signal, however, that we feel we've reached the bottom roughly, but we have actually called down our market outlook for the full year in Europe slightly versus what we had it pegged in Q2. So there is continued softness that we see. But we're very pleased with the results of our team across Europe being able to better balance the price/cost dynamic.

Leonie Zirn

Okay. And then one follow-up, focusing on Germany. I was wondering how large are your German revenues of total Europe? Can maybe -- can you give a broad share like 20% or more or less? And then also, what demand do you specifically see there? And is pricing in Germany tougher than in other markets because construction is not picking up there versus Eastern Europe or Spain, where construction is much better? And have you been gaining market share in Germany as a consequence?

William Christensen

Okay. There's a number of questions to unpack there. So our Central region is our largest in Europe, and our Central region is comprised of the classical DACH countries, so Germany, Switzerland, Austria. We have a phenomenal team who's been doing an excellent job through various cycles of maintaining service levels to our customers. And I believe that our level of service in the current market is market-leading. And as a result, we feel that we've definitely been able to maintain share and potentially gain a little bit of share in the market environment.

Some of our competitors have signaled that there's some pretty significant headwinds. I wouldn't really want to comment on the outlook outside of saying that we are very confident in our team's ability and what they've been delivering in Central Europe, and we have an excellent franchise. I think that's, kind of, where I'd want to leave it. We're not going to share specific market share details, et cetera, outside of saying our DACH region is the largest in our European portfolio.

Leonie Zirn

Okay. Perfect. And maybe just one smaller question. The delivery performance and the 90% you talked about, was this referred to the Group or to Europe? And is Europe better or worse than the Group?

William Christensen

It's a split. So that was mainly driven by North America because we've been reporting out on the last couple of quarters on our OTIF improvements in North America. So Europe is roughly at 95% On-Time, In-Full, then 90% refers to North America. And there's different metrics, obviously, that we look at, line fill rates, On-Time, In-Full. The key message is the progress continues in North America, and we're maintaining our high level of service across Europe.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to James Armstrong for closing remarks.

James Armstrong

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out. We appreciate your time and interest in JELD-WEN. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.