Finance of America (FOA) 2026 年第三季法說會：業務量成長 24%，撤回每股盈餘指引

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季撥款金額達 7.48 億美元，年增 24%，季增 2%。今年以來累計放款金額成長 17%，達到約 21 億美元。
• Finance of America 報告 GAAP 稅前虧損為 1.3 億美元，主要是由於剩餘資產的非現金公允價值變動所致。調整後淨利為 600 萬美元，即每股 0.28 美元。
• 退休解決方案收入利潤率從去年同期的 11.3% 降至 9.0%，而自 2024 年初以來的歷史平均值為 10.7%。管理層預期定價、貸款成數 (LTV) 與利率的調整將在 2027 年上半年拉回利潤率水平。
• 零售撥款金額年增 54% 至 3.03 億美元。每位貸款專員的平均每月放款金額達到 120 萬美元，成長超過 40%，而零售總員工人數大致保持不變。
• 公司不再預期能達到先前設定的 2026 全年調整後每股盈餘 (EPS) 指引 4.50-5.00 美元。管理層預期第四季調整後盈餘將與第三季結果相近。
• 展望 2027 年，管理層預計撥款金額將達到 31 億至 34 億美元，且下半年的年化調整後 EPS 運行率約為 4 至 5 美元。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

批發業務仍是 Finance of America 最大的管道，佔撥款金額的近 60%。該管道本季撥款 4.44 億美元，年增 10%。批發申貸送件量達到 6.25 億美元，季增 6%，創下七個季度以來的最高水平。

零售撥款金額季增 11%、年增 54% 至 3.03 億美元。儘管銷售機會比第二季減少 12%，但申貸送件量保持穩定，撥款貸款量成長 9%。管理層將此改善歸因於專注於更高質量的機會以及技術投資。

產品成長呈現全面性。HECM 業務量年增 14%，HomeSafe 第一順位抵押貸款業務量成長 15%，HomeSafe Second 則大增 63%。公司計劃在 2027 年推出 HomeSafe Second 的信用額度版本，並擴充其房屋淨值產品系列。

數位行銷漏斗指標亦有所改善。預先審核啟動量增加 89%，數位潛在機會增加 61%，從潛在客戶轉化為正式申請的平均時間從約 20 天降至 6 天以下。

管理層指引

管理層預計 2026 全年撥款金額將落在先前溝通的指引區間低端。然而，由於第三季利潤率較低以及調整後的定價發揮作用需要時間傳遞至貸款管道中，公司撤回了先前 4.50-5.00 美元的調整後 EPS 指引。

第四季調整後盈餘預計將與第三季相近，當時 Finance of America 產生了 600 萬美元的調整後淨利與 0.28 美元的調整後 EPS。

展望 2027 年，公司預計撥款金額為 31 億至 34 億美元。在產品定價、貸款成數 (LTV) 及利率調整的支撐下，管理層目標是在上半年將收入利潤率拉回接近 10.7% 的歷史平均水平。

預計更高放款量與常態化的利潤率將支撐 2027 下半年年化調整後 EPS 運行率達到約 4-5 美元。管理層表示，折現率上升導致投資組合管理收益下降，這將抵銷部分增幅。

公司計劃償還 6,000 萬美元的高級擔保票據，並將剩餘的約 9,000 萬美元展期至 2027 年 11 月。管理層表示有信心透過核心業務、證券化贖回與再發行活動，以及其 HECM MSR 資產的潛在融資，來支持剩餘債務的償還。

風險與觀察要點

10 年期美債殖利率在第三季上升超過 75 個基點，對放款利潤率造成壓力，並產生不利的非現金公允價值調整。管理層強調，受影響投資組合資產的預期名義現金流並無重大變化。

利潤率的恢復取決於調整後的定價傳導至反向抵押貸款融資週期，該週期可能需要 60 至 90 天的時間。利率的進一步變化可能需要對定價、貸款成數 (LTV) 及產品條款進行額外調整。

管理層亦指出，由於假期前後申貸送件量下滑，第一季的放款金額通常為全年最低。這種季節性也是公司調整後 EPS 運行率目標適用於 2027 下半年而非全年的原因之一。

分析師問答重點

分析師關注恢復至歷史利潤率的途徑。管理層表示，隨著管道中舊有貸款被新定價的貸款取代，近期對定價、貸款成數 (LTV) 及利率的調整應能推動平均收入利潤率回升至 10.7% 附近。2027 年展望未假設特定利率走向。

在資本配置方面，管理層表示，在清償剩餘約 9,000 萬美元的債務後，股票回購與發放股利可能成為現金的潛在用途。但並未提供具體時間或金額。

管理層還表示，預計 2027 年上半年的潛在 HECM MSR 融資將連同營運現金流及證券化相關活動，帶來額外的現金。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Hilary, and I'll be your conference moderator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to the Finance of America Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Michael Fant, Senior Vice President of Finance. You may begin.

Michael Fant

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Finance of America's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Graham Fleming, Chief Executive Officer; Kristen Sieffert, President; and Matt Engel, Chief Financial Officer.

As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and you can find the earnings release and related presentation on our Investor Relations website at ir.financeofamericacompanies.com.

Also, I would like to remind everyone that comments on this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding the company's expected operating and financial performance for future periods. These statements are based on the company's current expectations and are subject to the safe harbor statement for forward-looking statements that you will find in today's earnings release and related presentation. Actual results for future periods may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements due to a number of risks or other factors, including those that are described in the Risk Factors section of Finance of America's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, filed with the SEC on March 13, 2026. Such risk factors may be amended and updated in our subsequent filings with the SEC. We are not undertaking any commitment to update these statements if conditions change.

Please note, today, we will be discussing interim period financials for our continuing operations, which are unaudited. In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures to the extent available without unreasonable efforts in our earnings press release and presentation on the Investor Relations page of our website.

Now I'll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Graham Fleming. Graham?

Graham Fleming

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I go through the quarter in detail, I want to give you the 5 key takeaways from today's call. Everything in the rest of this call and the accompanying materials is an elaboration on these 5 points.

First, our volume this quarter grew 24% year-over-year, and we expect continued growth both in 2027 and beyond based on demographic trends and continued product development. Second, our retail platform is becoming more efficient and productive. Productivity per loan officer is up 40% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Third, margins compressed as the Fed shifted from cutting to raising interest rates. We have already made the necessary changes to product pricing, and we expect margins to return to historical levels in the first half of 2027.

Fourth, we have generated $145 million of cash from originations and capital markets activities year-to-date, including $33 million of cash this quarter, which we have used to complete several capital actions this year. And finally, we expect adjusted earnings per share of between $4 to $5 on an annual run rate basis during the second half of 2027, driven by higher volume and normalized margins, partially offset by lower portfolio management earnings resulting from higher discount rates.

Turning to Slide 5. Third quarter funded volume was $748 million, compared with $730 million in Q2 2026 and $603 million in Q3 2025, that means growth both sequentially and year-over-year. Through September, year-to-date production was approximately $2.1 billion versus $1.8 billion in the first 9 months of 2025 or an increase of 17% year-over-year. That progress is part of the longer story.

Since 2023, we have been investing in a more focused reverse mortgage platform, a broader proprietary product offering and the technology and distribution capabilities needed to reach more homeowners. Finance of America has grown volumes on average by 20% each year since 2023.

The third quarter was a challenging rate environment with the 10-year Treasury yields increasing over 75 basis points during the quarter, a reaction to the Fed's pivot to raising rates and elevated inflation. Higher rates create 2 distinct challenges, noncash fair value adjustments to certain assets within our portfolio and near-term pressure on origination margins and inventory due to the challenge of repricing customers already in our pipeline.

During the first 9 months of 2026, we recorded $167 million in unfavorable noncash changes in fair value of our portfolio assets and liabilities. That same mechanism produced $161 million in positive fair value changes during the first 9 months of 2025. This is primarily a discount rate effect, not a cash flow effect. The expected nominal cash flows from these assets has not materially changed.

Additionally, our Retirement Solutions revenue margin was impacted in the third quarter, decreasing to 9% compared with 11.3% in the third quarter of 2025 and a historical average since the start of 2024 of 10.7%. We believe these impacts are temporary and do not change the underlying fundamentals of our business.

Notably, neither of these challenges change the long-term demand for our products nor the opportunity we see to continue scaling our platform. In fact, we have successfully navigated similar periods before, such as 2022 when the Fed raised rates 7x for a total of 425 basis points. When rising rates reduced margins, we responded with product and pricing changes that improve the economics of new production over time.

During October, we made the necessary changes to our product offerings, and we expect that our revenue margin will return to our historical averages over the first half of 2027. While the near-term interest rate environment remains dynamic, we continue to focus on the levers within our control, pricing appropriately for the environment, improving conversion and productivity, managing costs and preserving financial flexibility.

With respect to capital allocation, we will repay $60 million of our senior secured notes and we will exercise our right to extend the remaining approximately $90 million to November 2027. We believe that in the current environment, this is a prudent choice as this increases the company's financial flexibility.

Before I turn it over to Kristen and Matt, I want to take a moment to acknowledge our team. Thanks to the hard work, our operating strategy is delivering on production and productivity.

And with that, I will turn the call over to Kristen.

Kristen Sieffert

Thanks, Graham, and good afternoon, everyone. Last quarter, I highlighted an important evolution in our business, our ability to generate more production from the opportunities already entering our platform. This quarter proved it under pressure.

Against the capital markets headwinds Graham described, that shift matters more than ever, and our focus remains on 3 things: sustaining growth, increasing productivity and turning our investments into compounding benefits. First, production growth remained resilient in a difficult market. We funded 24% more this quarter than in the third quarter of last year.

Turning to Slide 7. The contrast with the traditional mortgage market is stark. From 2024 through our 2027 outlook, our funded volume grows more than 60%, better than 17% per year. The forward mortgage industry grows about 6% a year over the same period. Next year, per the recent MBA forecast, the forward market shrinks by 5% against double-digit growth for FOA. The difference is demand. Ours is driven by retirement need, not refinancing incentives. Higher rates affect borrower proceeds, but they do not eliminate our customers' need for financial flexibility in retirement.

On Slide 8, we show the consistent growth our platform has experienced. Since 2023, our submission volumes have increased by 21% annually, while our funded volumes grown by 20% annually. This is across our product suite as HECM volume is up 14% year-over-year, HomeSafe first liens are up 15% and HomeSafe Second are up 63%. That breadth is deliberate. Each of our products serves a different homeowner need, and together, they give us multiple paths to growth even when pricing pressure affects individual products. That's why in a quarter when benchmark rates rose sharply and traditional mortgage industry applications declined, our submission volume grew by 20% and our funded UPB grew by 24% year-over-year. Our growth comes from conversion, productivity and product range and our 2027 outlook assumes no benefit from rates.

Wholesale remains our largest channel, representing nearly 60% of funded volume. It funded $444 million in the quarter, up 10% year-over-year, and submissions reached $625 million, up 6% sequentially and the highest level in 7 quarters. Second, our operating model is becoming more productive. Retail funded volume increased 11% sequentially and 54% year-over-year to $303 million.

Slide 9 shows how even with 12% fewer opportunities than in Q2, which was a result of a deliberate shift to quality over quantity, submissions held steady and funded loans rose 9%. This continued move to quality, coupled with our technology advancements, lifted production per loan officer to an average of $1.2 million per month in the third quarter, up nearly 9% sequentially and more than 40% year-over-year. Productivity has risen year-over-year in each quarter of 2026, and the gain is not a denominator effect. Total retail headcount is essentially unchanged from a year ago.

Third, the investments we made this year were built to compound. We expect to keep improving retail funnel conversion and loan officer productivity in 2027 and to deliver continued efficiency gains in operations and our G&A expenses as volume grows over a stable cost base.

Our digital platform is scaling. In the third quarter, prequalification starts rose 89%, digital opportunities grew 61% and time from lead to application fell to under 6 days from roughly 20. And new website launches in the first half of 2027 will lift funnel conversion further.

We are also broadening our product suite. The line of credit version of HomeSafe Second launches soon. And next year, we will expand the suite further as we move from the leader in reverse mortgages toward becoming the leader in home equity solutions for retirement.

We cannot control where rates go. We can control conversion, cost and pricing, and we are getting better at all 3. Our growth is driven by demographics, not the rate cycle, and that is why we expect to keep growing through this market and to convert that growth into stronger, more consistent earnings power.

With that, I'll turn it over to Matt.

Matthew Engel

Thank you, Kristen. Good afternoon, everyone. On a GAAP basis, the company recognized a pretax loss of $130 million, primarily reflecting noncash fair value changes on residual assets, partially offset by a reduction in the fair value liability of our convertible notes. It is important to distinguish these noncash fair value adjustments from the underlying economics of our portfolio. While changes in market rates affect the current valuation of certain assets, these assets continue to accrete, and we ultimately expect to monetize these assets over time. We continue to believe our residual assets represent meaningful long-term economic value, and our focus remains on managing the portfolio to maximize that value.

As shown on Slide 10, adjusted net income for the quarter was $6 million or $0.28 per share. As Graham and Kristen mentioned, the key driver of lower adjusted earnings was lower revenue margins in our Retirement Solutions segment. These results were impacted by the increase in benchmark rates during the third quarter. We consider these as temporary in nature, not because we anticipate the rate environment to move in our favor, but because of the nature of our platform.

Although fair values declined, our Portfolio Management segment still generated adjusted net income of $11 million as our portfolio continued to accrete a yield in the mid-teens against retained beneficial interest of approximately $500 million.

Cost discipline remained a key focus as well. Total expenses, excluding securitization-related expenses, increased by only $2 million, with this coming from an increase in subservicing expense associated with the HECM portfolio we acquired on June 30.

Variable compensation rose with the growth in our retail platform Kristen mentioned, and this was offset by a reduction in marketing expense as we focus our efforts on higher-value opportunities.

Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash and cash equivalents increased to $118 million as of September 30 as we generated $33 million over the prior quarter. For the year, we have generated $145 million in cash from originations and capital markets activity, which we have used to complete several significant capital transactions, including the repurchase of Blackstone's remaining equity position and the acquisition of Onity's HECM servicing portfolio.

Leveraging our strong cash position, we will complete the $60 million paydown on our senior secured notes later this month.

Looking forward, we expect to achieve the low end of our previously communicated full year 2026 funded volume guidance range of $2.8 billion to $3.8 billion -- $3.1 billion, excuse me. However, we no longer expect to achieve our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year 2026 of $4.50 to $5 as a result of the decreased margins in the third quarter and the time it takes for the changes we have already made to make their way through our pipeline. We anticipate the fourth quarter will approximate our third quarter adjusted earnings results.

Looking ahead to 2027, we expect funded volume to reach $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion, a growth rate similar to what we have achieved over the past several years, supported by consumer demographics, our product breadth and ongoing conversion improvements. This increase in funded volume, combined with the expected return to normalized margins by product and channel, though partially offset by lower portfolio management earnings resulting from the higher discount rates, should allow Finance of America to achieve a run rate adjusted earnings per share of approximately $4 to $5 on an annualized basis during the second half of 2027.

Looking ahead, our priorities are unchanged, continue to grow our operating platform to produce strong recurring earnings, maintain sufficient liquidity to support the business and allocate capital where we believe it can produce the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.

With that, I will turn the call back to Graham for closing remarks.

Graham Fleming

Thank you, Matt. We have built a platform capable of delivering sustained production growth across different market environments, and this quarter demonstrated that progress. While the current rate environment has pressured earnings, we have taken action to improve margins and remain focused on increasing productivity, generating cash and maintaining financial flexibility.

Looking ahead, we are confident that the long-term demand for home equity solutions remains substantial. With our leading market position, expanding product offerings and continued operational improvements, we are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity and translate our growth into stronger earnings over time.

And with that, I'll open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gaurav Mehta from Alliance Global Partners.

分析師問答

Gaurav Mehta

Matt, I wanted to go back to your comments about your expectations of revenue margins expected to go back to historical trends, and you talked about some pricing and product adjustments that you have made. Can you maybe provide some more color on those adjustments and what gives you confidence that you can get back to the historical revenue margins in a high rate environment?

Matthew Engel

I guess a couple of things, Gaurav. We have made changes to our pricing already in the last few weeks to LTVs and interest rates that we believe will restore those margins back to our historical levels. On top of that, of course, we don't know where the rates will go in the future, but rates have come back quite a bit during the month of October. And so we feel pretty confident that heading into 2027, as the pipeline with the old rates and LTVs works its way through that the new production coming in will be at that margin.

So our guidance kind of reflects that Q4 will still be a little bit down on the margin because we have that pipeline still coming through. But then as the new production starts to come through in the first quarter, we expect those margins to get back to historical levels.

Gaurav Mehta

Okay. And as a follow-up, can you also maybe discuss what your interest rate assumption is for your 2027 guidance?

Graham Fleming

What was the first part of the question, Gaurav?

Unknown Executive

Interest rate assumption for 2027.

Graham Fleming

We're agnostic to the interest rate environment. We'll adjust our products, our rates and our LTVs to yield the revenue margin -- the historical revenue margin that we had, which is, as I said in my remarks, 10.7%. So we will adjust our products to achieve that revenue margin. We don't have an expectation for interest rates in 2027. That's not -- we'll react to whatever the [indiscernible].

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy D'Agostino from B. Riley.

Timothy D'Agostino

I guess just quickly circling back on the guidance. You mentioned your margins should return in the first half of '27, I believe you said the first quarter. So I guess thinking about the $4 to $5 of adjusted EBITDA or EPS, sorry, run rate for the second half of 2027. I guess it kind of -- it would be good to get some color on why you're leaning away from the first half. Again, you expect margins to return. Are there anything else -- is there anything else you want to kind of flag for the first half as to why you're maybe not talk about touching guidance there?

Graham Fleming

Yes. We just have a longer lead time with reverse mortgages as a senior cycle. So we don't have an application to funding cycle that's, call it, 21 days or 30 days, right? Consumers need to go through counseling, right? We need to go through process. We just have a longer lead time. And when we bring new submissions into the pipeline and new leads into the call center, it's roughly a 60- or 90-day time line before they turn into funded inventory. So that's the reason for potentially having a longer time line.

So I'm not going to say it won't be the first quarter, but we also -- look, we just had midterms today, potentially rates move again in December, maybe one more time, right, which will cause us to move our margins again. So we're probably building in a little bit of cushion. We're just a little uncertain if the rates are going to move 1 or 2 more times, and we'll have to adjust our products and margins again to match that.

Matthew Engel

I would probably add to that as well. If you look at our funding patterns in the last few years, generally, our first quarter fundings are the lowest of the year, submissions dip a little bit over the holiday period. So we still expect strong year-over-year growth, but sequentially, that Q1 is usually our softest. So it's a combination of what Graham said and perhaps that pattern as well.

Timothy D'Agostino

Okay. That's helpful. And then if I could just ask a second one. Just on cash and capital allocation, you had mentioned using cash for Onity HECM servicing portfolio, Blackstone equity position, thinking out to now November, you have the $60 million of debt. So I guess, capital allocation and cash use in 2027, outside of that additional $90 million worth of debt, how else could you return capital to shareholders? Can you share with us maybe plans on that? Could it be potential share buybacks, a dividend? Just kind of trying to understand how you think about that.

Graham Fleming

Yes, all of the above. Like once we retire the $90 million, we are continuing to generate cash through our operations and our [indiscernible] activity on the balance sheet. So yes, share buybacks and dividends are both likely outcomes once we retire the $90 million unsecured debt.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Poggi from Raymond James.

Gabriel Poggi

So my first question is you guys are going to pay down $60 million on the notes this month. Can we just walk through and it kind of piggybacks on Tim's prior question, kind of how you're thinking about cash usage, et cetera, to get to the $90 million a year from now? That's 2?

Matthew Engel

Yes. I guess a couple of things, Gabe. I think, first, as Graham mentioned, we have a number of prior securitizations that we have continued to call and reissue activity. So we expect over the course of 2027 to generate additional cash from that activity. And then also, as we've talked about in prior calls, we are still pursuing financing on our HECM MSR asset that we don't know the exact timing of that, but we expect that certainly in the first half of '27, generated significant additional cash from that as well. So core operations, the call and reissue activity and the HECM MSR, the combination of those 3 gives us high level of confidence that the $90 million will be easily paid off at the end of next year.

Gabriel Poggi

Got it. And then I had a question on -- you guys talked about returning to historical margins late -- I guess, late one half '27, and that's been the inflection point to get to your new guidance in the back half of the year. What exactly is that historical margin number that you guys are using or pointing to just for modeling purposes? I know you've given some volume guidance, but where do you think margins should shake out or could shake out as we get towards the back half of next year?

Matthew Engel

So I'd say, on average, that historical margin is about 10.7%, right? We've seen some quarters higher than that. We've seen some quarters lower than that, right, as things change. But that's the number we're kind of targeting. Again, I think we'll get back to those margins in the first half of '27. The volume, we're down a little bit in Q1, most likely and then starting to hit our stride in Q2 seasonally. And so that's what really kind of leads to the guidance for the second half of the year.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Graham Fleming for closing remarks.

Graham Fleming

Yes. I want to thank everybody for joining our call today, and we look forward to updating you in March on our full year 2026 results. Thank you very much, everybody, for joining the call today.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.