XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) 2026 年第三季法說會：2027 年財測指引與風電風險

重點摘要

• XPLR Infrastructure 公布 2026 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 約為 4.71 億美元，成長前自由現金流為 1.64 億美元。
• 既有專案推升調整後 EBITDA 年增約 4,900 萬美元，成長前自由現金流增加 2,400 萬美元，主要歸因於風力條件回歸正常化以及淨營運費用改善。
• 管理層目前預估 2026 全年調整後 EBITDA 將落於先前預測區間的下半段，成長前自由現金流則預計接近或處於先前預測區間的低端。
• 展望 2027 年，該公司預估調整後 EBITDA 為 15.6 億至 17.0 億美元，成長前自由現金流為 5.25 億至 6.00 億美元。
• 2026 年預計進行的發電機組改建更新工程已完成約 85%。XPLR 亦於 8 月與 10 月期間出售了約 400 百萬瓦 (MW) 的電網併網資產及權利。
• XPLR 於 10 月償還了剩餘約 3,300 萬美元的 2026 年到期無擔保票據，使得 2026 年剩餘時間內無任何公司債到期。

關鍵財務數據

第三季的基期比較亦反映了 2025 年 9 月完成的資產處置。成長前自由現金流面臨壓力，主因稅務股權投資人帶來的收益減少、與 2025 年機組改建更新計畫相關的專案融資成本上升，以及 2025 年 3 月發行約 17.5 億美元無擔保票據所產生的公司利息支出增加。

業務與營運表現

XPLR 已完成 2026 年計畫中約 85% 的機組改建更新工程。管理層表示，剩餘工作進展順利，預計將提升投資組合的長期價值。

該公司於 7 月與 NextEra Energy Resources 成立了前兩家電池儲能合資企業，並於 8 月和 10 月完成另外約 400 百萬瓦併網資產及權利之出售。

其中約 200 百萬瓦係配合電池儲能協議售出，所得收益預計用於支付 XPLR 在四個儲能專案中部分淨股權投資；其餘約 200 百萬瓦之售出收益，則預計用於支援基礎專案的再投資。

管理層指出，XPLR 擁有數吉瓦 (GW) 的剩餘併網容量。在估值與資本配置效益具吸引力之處，公司計劃進一步評估直接出售與共同投資結構。

在既有協議到期前，XPLR 正與潛在交易對手討論合約展延與優化事宜。管理層表示，這些機會有望改善長期專案經濟效益與成長前自由現金流，儘管其對 2027 年財測的貢獻屬漸進性質。

管理層財務預測

管理層預估 2026 全年調整後 EBITDA 將落於先前預測區間的下半段。成長前自由現金流預期落在先前預測區間的低端或接近低端。

修訂後的展望反映出美西地區的風力與太陽能資源低於預期，而 XPLR 在該地區簽有較高價值的購電協議 (PPA)。此外，受聖嬰現象影響，預設 2026 年剩餘時間風力資源將至少下降 3%。管理層估計，在 2026 年剩餘期間，全風場風力發電量每變動 1%，將影響調整後 EBITDA 約 400 萬至 600 萬美元。

展望 2027 年，XPLR 預估：

• 調整後 EBITDA 為 15.6 億至 17.0 億美元。
• 成長前自由現金流為 5.25 億至 6.00 億美元。

預測區間低端納入了風力資源較弱所帶來的影響，估計對調整後 EBITDA 影響約 3,200 萬美元，對成長前自由現金流影響約 2,500 萬美元。管理層指出，此預測假設與聖嬰現象相關的風力發電量減少約 5.8% 至 6%，且主要集中在 2027 年第一季。

管理層指出，部分資產的生產稅務抵減 (PTC) 資格到期，是導致預估 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 下降的主因。然而，隨著稅務股權結構成熟，這項影響獲得部分抵銷，進而提升 XPLR 在專案現金流中的分潤比例並簡化所有權結構。

根據目前展望，管理層預計 2028 年成長前自由現金流將與 2027 年相當。

風險與關注事項

• 短期風力與太陽能的變動性可能對發電量和營收產生重大影響，特別是在高合約價格區域出現發電量不足的情況時。
• 聖嬰現象可能會減少 2026 年剩餘時間及 2027 年初的風力資源。
• 最新的 2026 年展望已納入較高的營運與維護費用。
• 生產稅務抵減資格到期預計將減少 2027 年申報的調整後 EBITDA。
• 較高的專案融資成本與公司利息支出，仍是成長前自由現金流的逆風因素。
• 長期表現部分取決於控管營運與維護成本，以及落實合約優化機會。

分析師問答重點

管理層表示，剩餘併網權代表投資組合中的內含選擇權，目前雖未產生現金流，但未來可逐步變現。潛在途徑包括直接出售，以及與 NextEra Energy Resources 進行電池儲能共同投資。

關於特定專案保留的收益，管理層說明該資金將用於抵銷原先計畫的案場控制與通訊基礎設施升級費用，而非資助新增的支出項目。

在稅務股權方面，管理層解釋，預估 2027 年調整後 EBITDA 的影響為淨額，已扣除機組改建更新貢獻與生產稅務抵減調升機制的抵銷金額。自由現金流受到的影響較小，因為其僅包含第三方稅務股權分配後由 XPLR 保留的稅務抵減效益。

管理層將美西地區近期發電量疲弱歸因於短期資源變動，而非結構性問題。長期預期普遍假設氣候正常，而近期財測則已納入最新的聖嬰現象估算。

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the XPLR Infrastructure Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kanghee Jeon, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kanghee Jeon

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 financial results conference call for XPLR Infrastructure. With me this morning are Alan Liu, President and Chief Executive Officer of XPLR Infrastructure; and Jessica Geoffroy, Chief Financial Officer of XPLR Infrastructure. Alan will walk through our business highlights, and Jessica will provide an overview of our financial results. After that, our executive team will be available to answer your questions.

On this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in today's earnings news release, in the comments made during this conference call, in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, www.xplrinfrastructure.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Alan.

Alan Liu

Thank you, Kanghee. Good morning, everyone. Since our last update, the XPLR team has continued to make progress across our key priorities. With repowering, execution remains on track. To date, we have completed approximately 85% of our planned repowerings for 2026. The remaining program is progressing and is expected to enhance the long-term value of our portfolio.

We also remain focused on our previously announced interconnection sales and battery storage co-investment agreement with NextEra Energy Resources. The first two joint ventures formed in July, and we'll continue to work on the remaining projects contemplated under the agreement. XPLR also completed the sales of approximately 400 megawatts of additional interconnection assets and rights to NextEra Energy Resources in August and October. Approximately 200 megawatts were sold in connection with the agreement with proceeds expected to fund a portion of XPLR's net equity investment in the four battery storage projects. Proceeds from the sale of the remaining approximately 200 megawatts are expected to support reinvestment in the underlying projects.

We continue to evaluate opportunities for monetization of interconnection assets and rights where they make economic sense. We view these transactions as an important example of the optionality embedded within our existing portfolio. We are leveraging existing interconnection assets and rights that are already part of our asset base to unlock incremental value and to redeploy capital across the portfolio, including to support reinvestment and incremental investment in storage, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management.

We also continue to execute on our previously outlined financial plan by retiring the remaining approximately $33 million balance of our 2026 unsecured notes in October, leaving us with no remaining corporate debt maturities in 2026. Alongside this progress, we are seeing opportunities to enhance the value of our existing assets through contract optimization.

While we expect this opportunity to grow over time as more legacy contracts approach expiration, we are engaging with potential counterparties across multiple markets and evaluating opportunities to extend or optimize contracts where market conditions support attractive economics. We are seeing increasing interest in customers and beginning these discussions well ahead of contract expiration as they evaluate their longer-term power needs. We will remain disciplined in evaluating these opportunities. Our objective is not simply to extend contracts, but to pursue opportunities that can enhance the long-term economics and free cash flow before growth profile of the underlying assets.

With that, let me turn it over to Jessica.

Jessica Geoffroy

Thank you, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to XPLR's detailed results. For the third quarter of 2026, XPLR's portfolio generated approximately $471 million in adjusted EBITDA and $164 million in free cash flow before growth.

Existing projects delivered a year-over-year increase of roughly $49 million in adjusted EBITDA and $24 million in free cash flow before growth, primarily reflecting more normalized wind resource compared with the prior year period and a favorable year-over-year comparison on net operating expenses. For free cash flow before growth, these benefits were partially offset by a decline in proceeds from tax equity investors and higher project financing costs related to the funding of our 2025 repowering program.

In addition, results for both adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth reflect the impact of asset dispositions completed in September 2025. Free cash flow before growth was further impacted by higher corporate interest payments on the approximately $1.75 billion of unsecured notes issued in March 2025. Specifically, current quarter results reflect the full semiannual interest payments on those notes, whereas the payments in the prior year comparable quarter included only partial period of related interest expense.

Turning to our financial expectations for 2026. As we approach year-end, we have greater clarity on our full year outlook. We now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to finish in the lower half of our prior guidance range and full year free cash flow before growth to come in at or near the low end of the prior guidance range. There are a number of factors impacting our updated outlook for this year. While average wind and solar resource has been strong across the fleet overall this year, it has been weaker than expected in the West region. Unfavorable generation in the West creates more significant energy revenue reduction because the region contains higher value PPA contracts on a dollar per megawatt hour basis.

Looking to the balance of the year, our outlook also reflects expectations for at least 3% lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions. As a reminder, a 1% deviation in wind production across the fleet equates to $4 million to $6 million of adjusted EBITDA for the balance of 2026. In addition, we have incorporated slightly higher expectations for net operating and maintenance expenses for the rest of the year.

Today, we are also introducing our financial expectations for 2027. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.56 billion to $1.70 billion and free cash flow before growth of $525 million to $600 million. In establishing these ranges, we have considered a range of potential resource outcomes. The lower end of the ranges contemplates the potential impact from lower wind resource related to El Niño weather conditions anticipated in the first half of next year.

The primary driver of the expected step down in adjusted EBITDA for 2027 as compared to 2026 is the expiration of tax credit eligibility for certain assets within the existing portfolio. The anticipated roll-off of production tax credits reflects the normal maturation of our renewable energy portfolio. These credits were largely allocated to third-party tax equity investors, whose investments provided upfront financing for the projects. As the associated tax equity arrangements mature and investors achieve their targeted returns, we expect to benefit from simplified ownership structures and an increased share of project cash flows, partially offsetting the reduction in reported adjusted EBITDA.

For free cash flow before growth in 2027, the net expected impact from tax credit changes is roughly $25 million. This impact is less than for adjusted EBITDA because free cash flow before growth only reflects the portion of tax credit economics retained by XPLR and its unitholders after tax equity allocations. The year-over-year change in free cash flow before growth also reflects approximately $20 million higher net interest expense.

Looking ahead to 2028, based on our current outlook, we expect free cash flow before growth to be in line with 2027. Beyond that, we believe the underlying characteristics of the business support a durable free cash flow profile over the longer term, with several factors that could create upside from the existing portfolio. We anticipate continued benefits from investments under our existing capital plan as more projects come online.

The portfolio is also well positioned to capitalize on recontracting opportunities that we expect may emerge over the coming years. At the same time, delivering on this performance requires us to continue managing operations and maintenance costs and running the portfolio efficiently. As always, our expectations assume our usual caveats.

In summary, we continue to operate a large diversified portfolio of contracted infrastructure assets that generate meaningful free cash flow before growth. We are executing against the priorities we have previously laid out and are maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and balance sheet management. Looking ahead, our focus remains on strong execution, maintaining financial flexibility, and pursuing opportunities that can enhance the long-term value of the portfolio for XPLR unitholders.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

分析師問答

Anuhea Elliott

This is Anuhea Elliott on for Julien. So following the roughly 400 megawatts of interconnection asset and rights sale completed this year, could you just help quantify the remaining interconnection monetization opportunity across the portfolio? I guess, should we view these additional proceeds as recurring support for battery co-investments and project reinvestment? Or were these transactions more opportunistic?

Alan Liu

I appreciate that question. As we've noted before, XPLR owns multiple gigawatts of surplus interconnections, so we view these as embedded options within the portfolio. They are assets that don't generate cash today and can be over time monetized. And so we're going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these where they make sense. As you've seen, we've demonstrated there's multiple pathways to monetizing them, including the battery storage co-investment opportunity that we've negotiated and collaborated with NEER. We've certainly pursued direct sales where that makes more sense. And so yes, we are going to continue to evaluate opportunities to monetize these assets.

Anuhea Elliott

Great. And then I guess my second question, for 2027 guidance, what brings you guys to the high and low end of the range, particularly with regard to what's assumed for the El Niño impact? You mentioned that you expect lower wind resources, but I guess any other color on the magnitude of that?

Jessica Geoffroy

Sure. It's Jessica. So for 2027, we did give specific sensitivities for lower wind resource on the El Niño front. So we incorporated into the lower end of the range for adjusted EBITDA, approximately $32 million potential impact and $25 million potential impact on the free cash flow before growth side. That equates to roughly 6% lower wind estimate that we have for El Niño in the first half of next year. In the first quarter. Sorry.

Operator

The next question comes from Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets.

Nelson Ng

Jessica, just to clarify, so on your El Niño assumptions, like obviously, you baked in some caution for Q4 of this year, but you're expecting from your guidance perspective that El Niño last from Q4 of this year through to Q1 and kind of stops there?

Jessica Geoffroy

Well, we said in the script, right, recall in my prepared remarks, we said in the first half of next year. The number that I quoted the $25 million is an assumption of roughly 5.8% lower wind resource concentrated in the first quarter of next year. Again, these are the best estimates we have at this time for both 2026 and 2027. The portfolio is subject to short-term resource variability, but those are the sort of best numbers that we have at this time in terms of estimate for El Niño impact.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then next question just relates to the allocation of the proceeds from the interconnection sales. I know it's not a big number, but $12 million of the proceeds are being allocated to reinvestments in the underlying projects. Can you just clarify whether we should think of this as like organic growth CapEx? Or are you funding some like major maintenance or refurbishment that's needed in some of the underlying projects?

Alan Liu

Nelson, it's Alan. We had some planned upgrades to site controls and communications infrastructure at some of these projects. And so they were already in the plan. The opportunity that came up and to answer an earlier question, it was opportunistic to monetize the surplus interconnects at a attractive valuation. And money, once you've converted that option into cash, it's fungible. We're just planning on leaving the cash at the projects to offset the spending that was already planned.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it. And then just one last question. In terms of your guidance, like does the repowering plans and also, I know like the contract expirations are pretty limited in the next year or so. But does that have much of an impact on your guidance for next year? Or is it very incremental?

Alan Liu

In terms of the guidance, it's incremental, but we are bullish on this front. As we mentioned in the remarks, we are seeing traction in customer dialogue of people willing to engage with us on potential recontracting, reoptimization of the existing contracts well in advance of where the existing contract expires. So we're optimistic on this front. And so that we do think that there is incremental opportunity over the next couple of years.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

Anthony Crowdell

Just hopefully, two quick questions. One on the tax equity roll-off. You said maturing tax equity gives you a larger share of the project cash flows. So how much of the '27 tax credit hit does that offset? And does that offset grow in '28?

Jessica Geoffroy

Yes. It's Jessica. So if you take a look at that $170 million number on adjusted EBITDA for the 2027 guidance versus 2026, that's a net number. So that's not directly, "Hey, here's the eligibility roll-off specifically for tax credits that came off assets that were expiring from their 10-year period." It's inclusive of the offset on repowering contributions and PTC escalators. So the net impact on adjusted EBITDA accounts for that.

On free cash flow for growth, right, you have a smaller number and a small variability, but you have adjustments for PAYGOs that change as tax equities come off. And then as there are tax equity investors who are effectively bought out of the structure through the allocation of tax credits, then they no longer get that small share of cash flows from the projects that they were getting. So all of that is baked into the expectations in those categories that we've laid out.

Anthony Crowdell

Great. And then just, I think you may have already hit it just on the weak west wind and solar, I think hit your higher-priced PPAs in '26. Is that only weather? Or is there something structural that may impact on your '27?

Alan Liu

I think that was more recent experience in 2026 that Jessica was referring to, right? If you think about our assets in California and WECC, generally much higher PPAs and SVP contracts, right, or contracts. And so this is a reflection of the fact that in the short term, you're going to have variability and it isn't always a direct correlation of overall megawatt hours to how it reflects on revenue, right? It's kind of dependent on which region is impacted by the megawatt hours.

Again, short term, you'll see this variability over the long term, these things even out. And as we provide expectations going forward, generally, we're assuming normal weather. It's just that as we look at El Niño and the information we're seeing, particularly as we're getting up-to-date reports every week on kind of the balance of the year, we felt it was prudent to start to incorporate some of that into the expectations in the short term.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.