Grab (GRAB) 2026 年第三季法說會：EBITDA 創新高並調升財測指引

核心要點

• Grab 公布創紀錄的調整後 EBITDA 達 2.37 億美元，年增 73%，標誌著其調整後 EBITDA 連續第 19 個季度實現擴展。
• 按固定匯率計算，即時點播 GMV 年增 22%，月活躍交易用戶數則創下 5,700 萬人的歷史新高。
• 三大核心業務部門首次全部實現獲利。金融服務部門產生 1,200 萬美元的部門調整後 EBITDA，年增 4,000 萬美元。
• 出行服務與外送服務部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別季增至 8.9% 與 2.7%。外送服務 GMV 年增 21%。
• Grab 今年第二次上調 2026 年集團營收與調整後 EBITDA 指引。目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 將達 7.9 億美元至 8 億美元。
• 管理層重申其 2028 年目標，即集團營收年複合成長率超過 30%，調整後 EBITDA 達 17 億美元，此目標已納入擬議中的 Atome 收購案，惟該收購仍有待完成。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

外送服務受益於規模效應、嚴格控制的區域企業成本、廣告成長以及 AI 支援的市場優化。管理層表示，這些收益足以彌補較高的司機獎勵支出。公司繼續以超過 4% 的長期外送服務利潤率為目標，但同時計劃對實惠商品、GrabMart 和 Grab Mall 進行進一步投資。

Grab Mall 本季作為外送生態系統中的品牌零售電商管道推出。Grab 計劃整合廣告、履約服務，並在 Atome 收購案完成的前提下整合消費貸款。管理層指出，早期試點已產生積極提升效果，Grab 打算將此服務推廣至整個東南亞地區。

廣告仍是推動利潤率成長的重要動力。活躍廣告主數量年增 39%，而商家資助的促銷支出成長 48%。Grab 表示，其規模優勢正吸引餐飲商家和快消品（FMCG）廣告主。

Grab Unlimited 訂閱用戶佔外送服務月交易用戶數的 20% 以上，但貢獻了外送服務 GMV 的 35%。訂閱用戶的交易頻率是非訂閱用戶的近三倍，且展現出更強的留存率。Grab 正將會員權益擴展至出行服務及外部合作夥伴，包含免費 ChatGPT Plus 與 Trip.com 訂房折扣。

AI 已日益嵌入搜尋、推薦、優惠與市場營運中。同時在 GrabFood 和 GrabMart 消費的用戶占食品 GMV 的 43%，且購物籃金額高出約 10%。生鮮雜貨 GMV 的成長速度比食品 GMV 快 1.8 倍。

司機 AI 助理已開放給近 50 萬名司機使用。根據 Grab 的數據，活躍用戶每上線小時的收入增加超過 10%。使用 AI 輔助的商家平均收入增加約 20%，而整體商家平均收入年增 15%。由於 AI 互動量成長 60%，每次 AI 互動的成本較上一季下降 42%。

金融服務部門在部門調整後 EBITDA 基礎上實現了首次季度獲利。Grab 提及低顧客獲取成本、用於 AI 驅動承保的 6.47 億個還款觸點，以及 27 億美元的數位銀行存款等結構性優勢。擬議中的 Atome 收購案將增加消費貸款能力，並能接入包含 3 萬個零售品牌的網絡。

管理層指引

Grab 將 2026 全年調整後 EBITDA 指引從 7.2 億至 7.4 億美元上調至 7.9 億至 8 億美元。該公司還在 2026 年第二次上調了集團營收指引，但未在電話會議中明確具體的修正後營收範圍。

管理層預計第四季度的投資將集中於司機供給、燃油相關補助、季節性需求及新產品推出。這些產品包含 Grab Mall、新加坡的 GXS 信用卡以及印尼的新貸款計畫。預計下半年的區域企業成本與上半年相比將保持基本穩定。

展望 2028 年，Grab 重申集團營收年複合成長率超過 30% 以及調整後 EBITDA 達 17 億美元的預期。這些目標包含擬議中的 Atome 收購案，因此仍以收購完成為前提。

金融服務目標在 2028 年產生 5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，預計貸款組合將超過 60 億美元。管理層預期 EBITDA 目標中有約 3 億美元來自 Atome 和 Superbank，其餘 2 億美元來自其他金融服務業務，包括 GXS、GXP 及 GrabFin。

儘管在 2028 年調整後 EBITDA 框架內分配了約 1.6 億美元用於 Grab Mall、GrabMart 與生鮮雜貨實惠性等產品導向的投資，外送服務利潤率仍預計每年漸進改善，邁向超過 4% 的長期目標。

風險與關注焦點

高企的燃油價格繼續對司機營運成本和實際收入造成壓力。Grab 預計這些壓力將持續到第四季，並計劃實施定向獎勵措施，以在旅遊和節假日高峰期確保充足的司機運力。

持續的通膨和緊縮的家庭支出仍是營運逆風。管理層強調需要平衡商品的實惠性、服務可靠性與持續的獲利能力。

印尼於 7 月推出了新的兩輪車抽成指引，並正在評估針對即時物流和外送服務的額外規定。Grab 預計潛在的新規將聚焦於司機收入與費用透明度。管理層目前預計這些變更不會對其指引產生重大影響。

Atome 收購案仍有待完成。其預期貢獻已納入 Grab 的 2028 年營收成長、調整後 EBITDA、金融服務 EBITDA 及貸款規模目標中。

自動駕駛車輛在東南亞仍處於早期階段。管理層強調惡劣天候、營運極端狀況（edge cases）以及該地區較低的司機成本等因素，可能使過渡過程較為漸進，人類司機與自動駕駛車輛將在相當長的一段時間內協同營運。

分析師問答重點

為何第四季 EBITDA 指引暗示季成長有限？管理層將第四季描述為高回報的投資窗口。Grab 計劃在高油價背景下加大對司機供給的支援，並在保持獲利的同時投資於 Grab Mall、數位銀行產品及消費貸款項目。

2.7% 的外送服務利潤率是否為新基準？管理層並未將其定義為固定的季度下限。管理層將改善歸因於營運槓桿、廣告與 AI 賦能的市場效率，同時維持超過 4% 的長期目標，並預告將繼續進行產品投資。

金融服務要如何達到 2028 年 5 億美元的調整後 EBITDA？Grab 預期貸款組合將會成長、數位銀行將發揮更大的資金來源作用、資金成本將會降低、具備 AI 驅動的承保能力，以及擬加入 Atome 的消費貸款平台。管理層表示，在該部門實現獲利後，營運槓桿效應應會加速。

Grab 如何進行資本配置？遭拒絕的台灣 foodpanda 收購案使 5.5 億美元的現金回流至資產負債表。Grab 在 9 月與 10 月回購了 4 億美元的股份，並計劃在 2027 年 9 月前完成其 9 億美元計畫中剩餘的 5 億美元，所有回購的股份預計都將予以註銷。

自動駕駛車輛是否會使 Grab 去中介化？管理層預期 Grab 將繼續作為需求聚合與車隊調度層。該公司計劃採取輕資產模式，與自駕技術提供商和第三方車隊擁有者合作，同時在必要時為融資與車隊基地營運提供支援。

法說會逐字稿全文

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Douglas Eu

Hello everyone, and welcome to Grab's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm Douglas Eu, Director of Strategic Finance and Investor Relations at Grab. And joining me today are Anthony Tan, Chief Executive Officer; Alex Hungate, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Peter Oey, Chief Financial Officer.

During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events, including our business and financial performance. These statements are based on our current beliefs and expectations, actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties as described in his earnings call and earnings release and in our Form 20-F and other filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. We will also be discussing non-IFRS financial measures on this call, and these measures supplement but do not replace IFRS financial measures. Please refer to the earnings materials for a reconciliation of non-IFRS to IFRS financial measures. And for more information, please refer to our earnings release remarks and supplemental presentation available on our IR website.

So for today's call, Anthony will deliver opening remarks, after which we will open the floor for questions. And as a reminder, we accept questions via our IR email at investor.relations@grab.com. So please do submit your questions ahead of time, and we'll add them to the Q&A queue.

And with that, I'll hand it over to Anthony.

Ping Yeow Tan

Thanks so much, Doug. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The third quarter of 2026 was a quarter of several milestones. For the first time, all 3 of our core segments are profitable with financial services achieving segment adjusted EBITDA profitability, including the contributions from Stash and Superbank. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $237 million, up 73% year-on-year, our 19th consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA expansion. On-demand GMV grew 22% on a constant currency basis and monthly transacting users reached a record 57 million. We have a clear line of sight to the fourth quarter, we are raising our full year guidance for both group revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the second time this year. We also reiterate our 2028 expectations of our group revenue compounded annual growth rate of over 30% and adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion. These expectations include the proposed acquisition of Atome, which remains subject to completion.

Now we delivered this in a challenging environment. Elevated fuel prices continue to pressure driver operating costs, persistent inflation generated our tightened household spending and Indonesia's new 2-wheeler commission framework took effect in July. We leverage our ecosystem advantages to grow revenue while expanding profitability and our mobility and deliveries margins both expanded quarter-on-quarter to 8.9% and 2.7%, respectively. This is what we mean when we say our ecosystem compounds with more users, more services per user and more of each dollar reaching the bottom line. That [ streak ] is also what allows us to stand with our driver partners. We know elevated fuel costs have weighed directly on their take-home earnings, and we continue to support them through this period.

Beyond immediate relief, we are also equipping partners with tools that help them earn more on every hour they spend on Grab. AI now powers every layer of the Grab ecosystem, and we are building AI-First with Heart to simplify experiences for our users and drive tangible earnings growth for our partners.

As AI agents become a new way for consumers to transact every order they place still needs to be fulfilled on the ground to the drivers, merchants and logistics and licenses we have built for over more than a decade. With over 20 billion cumulative transactions in our platform, our models have a deep real-world understanding of how Southeast Asia moves, eats, shops and borrows. We're doing this while structurally lowered our compute cost with cost per AI interaction down 42% quarter-on-quarter as AI interactions grew 60%.

In September, we also announced a partnership with OpenAI to equip 30,000 driver and merchant partners with practical AI skills over the next 2 years starting in Singapore and then Thailand and expanding to Indonesia and the Philippines later this year, followed by Malaysia and Vietnam in 2027.

Southeast Asia has been our home for nearly 15 years, and our conviction in the region has never been stronger. It's 1 of the world's fastest-growing economies and is projected to expand well above the global average in 2026 according to the latest IMF forecast.

With all 3 core segments now profitable and our outlook raised for the second time this year, Grab has more engines contributing to profit than at any point in our history. I share that conviction personally, and I have purchased additional shares in Grab.

Our mission to drive Southeast Asia forward by empowering millions across the region remains central to our strategy and every capability we built serves our triple bottom line of delivering long-term shareholder value, creating meaningful impact for the communities and partners in our ecosystem and operating responsibly across Southeast Asia.

Thank you so much, and let's open it up for questions.

Douglas Eu

Great. Thank you, Anthony. So we will now begin the Q&A session, and we encourage you to submit questions throughout the webinar via e-mail. So we received some questions coming in. So the first question is on guidance upgrade, and this is a question for Peter, and the question comes from several analysts, Ranjan of JPMorgan, Piyush at HSBC, Jiong at Barclays and Wei from Mizuho. So the question is, pleased to see the guidance upgrade, but why not raise the 2026 EBITDA guidance higher as the current guidance indicates that the fourth quarter EBITDA may be stable relative to the third quarter? Question then goes on to ask, what are you assuming for fuel support FX and effective season investments for the fourth quarter? So it's a question for Peter.

Peter Oey

Yes, sure. It's a great question to open up. Look, when you look at our guidance revision today, so what are we? We're at $790 million to $800 million. And this is from our previous range just to reset from $720 million to $740 million. So that's roughly about a 58% to a 16% year-over-year expansion on our EBITDA.

Now in context, we are now operating at the highest margins level in Grab's history. If you look at the year-over-year, it was a 560 basis points improvement in terms of EBITDA margin that we are continuing to demonstrate as our business continues to perform.

Now the progression from Q3 to Q4, which is what at the heart of the questions, there are a couple of deliberate strategic choices that we as a management team going into Q4, feel that it's really important.

Now if you look at the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter is a high-return investment window, it's 1 of our busiest season for Southeast Asia itself. It's the festive season and a very high-volume tourist travel also at the same time. And we saw some snippets of that in October with a lot of the events and also coming up also in December itself.

Now Anthony just spoke about driver supply and some of the challenges that we've got here also, the elevated fuel prices has continued. We saw it in the second quarter, we saw it in the third quarter, and we're expecting the same in the fourth quarter.

Now we need more drivers on the platform. Actually, if you look at the third quarter, our active driver base was the highest ever on the Grab ecosystem itself. We increased the driver base by 20% on a year-over-year basis, and we need more drivers out there. So securing driver partner capacity is really critical as for us going to the Q4. So we're leaning in Q4 to make sure our driver community continues to be strong and also to help our passengers also to have access to rides reliably as well as affordable at the same time.

Now we're also deliberately deploying targeted marketplace investments across the board, both on the driver side also and also having making sure they have access to vehicles at the same time. Because if we fail to have drivers on the platform, it will just be leading to higher prices, high consumer waiting time, which is not a great customer experience. So that's 1 part, which is really important how we think about Q4, especially around the mobility.

Now the second part, going into this very busy season is also supporting the high-growth product launches. And if you read in the earnings remarks today, what did we launch? We launched Grab Mall in the Q3, and we're also rolling out several digital banking initiatives, the GXS credit card in Singapore and also in Indonesia, we launched in conjunction with our collaboration with Atome, OVO Panjang which is a lending product for our consumers with KreditPintar. And these are very exciting both delivery products as well as financial services products. So we're allocating marketing and also leaning in to make sure these products continue to pick up the traction in Q4 and also as we get into 2027.

Now on the cost structure itself, we see that regional corporate costs to be fairly stable in the second half to the first half. So that is really the package of how we think about the Q4 itself.

Now my guidance philosophy has always been to be on the prudent side and also be transparent with our shareholders, but also be grounded in what we're seeing on the ground. And we are seeing some of the challenges on our driver community that we talked about earlier. So we are setting expectations to ensure that we can reinvest with agility, but also capture the seasonal market share. We want to finish the fourth quarter strong and we're on track to do so, profitably at the same time, also deliver a great customer experience for our customers, but also for making sure our drivers and our merchants are also increasing their earnings at the same time.

Douglas Eu

So we received -- this next question said it came from several analysts, it's all pertaining to the deliveries segment. So we've segmented it into 3 parts. The questions came from several analysts like Divya of Morgan Stanley, Alicia of Citi, Piyush of HSBC, Ranjana of JPMorgan and Thomas of Jefferies as well. There's a question for -- [ packed ] for Alex. So the 3-part questions. First is on margins. Second is on ads. And then third is on clarification on Grab Mall. So are we basically each of the 3 components. And the first component is on the delivery segment, is the 2.7% EBITDA margin a new structural baseline? And what drove the outperformance and how much of this was enabled by AI-driven unit cost efficiencies? And should we expect a 2.7% segment margin to be a new base? The second part of your question is then on advertising. Can you update us on advertising penetration relative to deliveries GMV and what outperformed in the quarter? And the third part is on clarification on Grab Mall. Could you expand more on the Grad Mall strategy? So this is a question [ time ] for Alex.

Alexander Charles Hungate

Well, thank you all. I guess this is the most popular question so far. So let me try and go a bit detailed in those 3 parts. You're right, delivery's margin performed very strongly, 2.7%, up from 2.1% in the prior year, so very strong in the quarter. That does reflect primarily the operating leverage that we're getting from the scale because deliveries is growing fast, so 21% GMV growth year-on-year. As Peter said earlier, our control of the corporate costs, the regional corporate cost has been good, so pretty much flat in the second half versus the first half. And that gives us strong operating leverage enhanced by very widespread deployment of AI, both in terms of the productivity that we as Grabbers benefit from. But more importantly, if you think about our central purpose, it's driven by continued improvements in the performance of the marketplace that we run, increasingly using AI to do the optimization that we need to make sure we get the best combination of reliability of service and affordability for our users. So that is going very strongly.

The other driver of the improvement in margin is ads. Ads are growing strongly as our scale attracts more of the endemic advertisers who sell food on the platform and increasingly also brings in new FMCG advertisers who start to get attracted by that growing reach and are now very engaged also in partnering with us to grow Grab Mart and Grab Mall. So we've been able to do this at the same time as we increase driver incentives. As Peter mentioned, we're leaning in to help drivers during these difficult times. So you do see increased incentives, both for mobility and for deliveries for drivers. So the operating leverage is even bigger than the increase in incentives that we've given out to drivers. So that shows the strength and the overall reach that we're getting now with that scale.

So we still see plenty of opportunities to invest though in the delivery segment using product-driven growth, which has been a key factor in our success over the last couple of years. So we are expecting, as you remember from the last quarter, to invest in product growth in the Grab Mall marketplace area. So something like $160 million we set aside in the 2028 adjusted EBITDA guidance to fund those investments. It's driving better affordability in groceries and driving further growth in both Grab Mall and Grab Mart. But in spite of these investments, we expect deliveries margins to improve progressively year-by-year as we make progress towards our longer-term margin target of 4% plus, which you'll recall, we've been guiding towards over the last couple of years.

And then the last part of the strategy, I believe, was the Grab Mall -- question was the Grab Mall strategy. So let me talk about that. We launched Grab Mall this quarter. It's a branded retail economist channel within the deliveries ecosystem. It's been inspired by the FMCG advertisers who have been working with us on advertising. They're now keen to partner to do closed loop endemic advertising where we actually fulfill the transaction as well. And because of our very strong last mile quick commerce capabilities, we're able to do that probably better than any other partner in the region. So it's a good combination. We tap on our ecosystem advantage, and then we have that very large high-frequency user base and proven fulfillment network. And then we also know how to work well with merchants in terms of making sure that we tap into understanding their inventory so we can get a very good online fulfillment rates for customers as well.

The additional benefit here once Atome is approved is, of course, that we'll be able to then have better monetization capabilities via lending as well on this new base. So we'll get not just the advertising improvement in margin as we grow Grab Mall and Grab Mart, but we'll start to get stronger lending monetization as well with those highly developed Atome consumer lending models. So we'll continue to pilot Grab Mall, which we just launched across select markets, and we are seeing good uplifts right away from these pilots, and we'll start to expand that across the region.

Douglas Eu

Thank you, Alex. So next question is on AI and specifically on AI proof points. Question came from Alicia of Citi and John [ divest ] a question for Anthony. So Anthony, could you elaborate on how AI agents and Gen AI's features are currently driving user engagement and transaction velocity across the platform, specifically what early trends are you observing in terms of cross-sell in-app type spend and basket size uplift? And additionally, on the supply side, how are merchant partners leveraging AI tools to drive demand, improve sell-through and how our drivers partners utilizing AI to optimize their earnings and manage the workload and rest cycle? So that is a question for Anthony.

Ping Yeow Tan

Thanks so much, Alicia, and John. Let me take the AI proof points. So on engagement, I want to be straight about what we measure. We do not optimize for time spend in the app. For every AI feature, we ask whether people transact more often, more loyal, do they come back because that is what you can model. Three numbers from this quarter answer it, users who shop both Grab Food and Grab Mart now account for 43% of food GMV and their baskets are about 10% larger. Groceries GMV is growing 1.8x faster than food. Grab Unlimited subscribers transact almost 3x as often as nonsubscribers. AI sits behind each of those in search, in recommendations and offers we show but we report the outcome rather than the model, and we will keep reporting the same metrics every quarter so you can track them.

On the supply side, the tools are now at scale. The driver AI assistant is with nearly 500,000 drivers. It shows them where demand will be before it peaks and drivers who actively use it earn over 10% more per online hour. The same information helps them plan the day, their breaks because they no longer need to stay online, just waiting for the next job.

I want to be clear on how we see that. These are tools drivers choose to use, and they decide when and how long they want to drive. On the merchant side, merchants on our merchant AI-assisted [ MAI ] earned about 20% more on average. Average merchant earnings grew 15% year-on-year and active advertisers grew 39%.

Look, I'll be honest, adoption still has a long way to go, and that's why we continue to lean in on AI as a core part of our company's DNA.

Douglas Eu

All right. Thank you, Anthony. So continuing on to that thread, additional questions as well on OpenAI [ Muse ], which are our recent partnership collaborations, questions as well coming from John of Daiwa and Wei of Mizuho. So once again, another question set for Anthony. So these are 2 separate questions on these partnerships as well and their broader AI benefits. So the first component is what tangible benefits do you expect the OpenAI partnership and your broader AI investments to deliver to Grab? And the second component is then on Muse. Grab was announced last week as an early connector partner for Meta Muse in Singapore across Grab Mart and Grab Dine Out. Can you discuss the early use cases you're exploring? And where do you see AI agents becoming a meaningful incremental customer acquisition channel for Grab over time? So questions for Anthony.

Ping Yeow Tan

Thanks, John and Wei. On OpenAI and specifically, our OpenAI partnership delivers tangible benefits because we put the tools in our partners' hands and we teach them how to use them and how to make more money with them. The results are already measurable. As I shared just now on merchants using our AI assistance see about 20% uplift, drivers who use it earn over 10% more per online hour.

Now to scale, in September, we launched Go Forward with OpenAI under Grab Academy. Over the next 2 years, we will equip 30,000 drivers and merchant partners across Southeast Asia with very practical AI skills. I actually met many of them, and I saw how they're using even [indiscernible] to help them become even greater creators, social media creators to help them boost their income. We started in Singapore, launched in Thailand in October and are expanding to several other countries, including Indonesia and the Philippines this year-end. Partners who use AI sell more, earn more and stay longer and more loyal to our platform. That gives us stronger supply, as Peter talked about, and better service quality.

Now on Muse, Meta chose us as a launch partner when they brought Muse to Singapore last week. And we deliberately chose GrabMart and Dineout. Groceries are habitual. People buy much the same basket every week, and that's exactly the kind of task an agent does very well. Dining out is the other everyday use case. Here's how it works. A user ask Me in chat, Muse will build a basket from a GrabMart store and a basket shows up in the Grab app where the user approves the purchase. Our merchant, our inventory and the transaction data all stay with Grab. This is our pilot in one market, so it's too early to size the impact on customer acquisition or GMV. We see it first as incremental demand, just a new front door on Grab. We'll go partner by partner with platforms that bring real scale and utility and add services and markets when the time is right. Over time, I do expect agent originated orders to become a growing channel, and we will share updates as the partnership progresses. What does not change is where the value sits, whichever front door and order comes through, the merchant network, real-time inventory, dispatch, payments and customer care all run on Grab. We will also keep improving our own AI experiences, so users have good reasons to come to us directly.

Douglas Eu

Thank you, Anthony. So we received a few questions on financial services. So I think we'll take them as a different components. So the first component is on the financial services EBITDA breakdown for the third quarter. So this is a question for Peter coming from several analysts, including Piyush of HSBC and at Jacqueline from CGS. So for financial services, Peter, can you give us a split of the EBITDA contributions from Superbank, Stash, GrabFin and the remaining business in the third quarter?

Peter Oey

Yes. We don't split them out for each of those components because the way we think about it, actually, financial services is 1 bucket of different components of the ecosystem working together. And hence, why we are very, very deliberate of not breaking it out, including the banks itself. And what is publicly available, obviously, we will disclose such as Superbank, which is public to public company itself.

So just stepping back here, just to remind everyone here, the EBITDA target that we are giving up for 2028 for financial services is $500 million. Financial services today for the third quarter produce $12 million. So we still have some ways to go to get the $500 million. So where is it going to come from? What are the mix that we're going to see.

Now what we said was $300 million out of the $500 million will come on, we believe, from Atome and Superbank, and we said that a few weeks ago. So the remaining $200 million come from all the other products, ecosystem of financial services, including the banks, the GXS GXP banks as well as our nonbank lending portfolio, which is coming from we call GrabFin.

Now we do expect that our banks over time, given that a scaling mode to take up a larger share of the gross loan portfolio over time. And that will be a great leading indicator in terms of the profitability trajectory that we have. In addition to the autonomy also once the acquisition is closed, given that their loan book also is growing at a very rapid pace at the same time. And in this quarter, actually, we gave out some additional disclosure on financial services regarding NPL as regarding also risk-adjusted returns, revenue adjusted returns here to give the community a bit of a sense in terms of how we think about the unit economics of our lending portfolio to help you be able to model actually how we get to the $500 million.

Douglas Eu

Thanks, Peter. So for the second component on the financial services question, this is more in terms of the building blocks to get to the $500 million. So the question comes from Alicia of Citi and Piyush of HSBC. So I'll turn the question now to Alex to explain this. So the question is, as you work towards the 2028 financial services targets of $500 million EBITDA and the above $6 billion loan book target, where do you believe you are today relative to that journey? What are the building blocks required over the next few years in terms of customer acquisition, lending penetration, product expansion, funding costs and credit performance as required to get you there and which assumptions do you believe is the most critical in achieving these targets and wonder what scenarios could the business meaningfully outperform of fall short of your current actions?

Alexander Charles Hungate

Thanks, Doug. Yes, we're very proud that it's the first profitable quarter for Financial Services. I think it was September 2022 when I stood up in front of you and said that we could break even by the end of this year. But here we are in the third quarter. And it's a strong contribution also $12 million of segment adjusted EBITDA. So up $40 million year-on-year. So we're on a very good trajectory in terms of the time at which we're breaking even. Then we have some, as you know, some significant advantages in terms of how we think about the strategy.

So just to summarize what those are for those of you who haven't been following our strategy closely on financial services. First of all, the acquisition costs are very low. We have daily interactions through the Superapp to 57 million monthly transacting users, and we have annual transacting users of far north of 100 million, so it's a very big significant reach. We have 647 million repayment touch points through which we can feed the AI-driven underwriting model. So that's a significant advantage, too. We can pre-collect many of the repayments from revenues which are flowing through the platform. And then on the funding side, the reason why we have the banks is that we expect them to be able to give us access to lower cost of funds over time. And so we have 2.7 billion of digital bank deposits already. And of course, we're building syndicated facilities that we can do in cooperation with Atome over time also, which will give us access to wholesale bank funding. So we're doing a lot more on funding than we were in the past where we were just relying upon the equity that we hold on the balance sheet.

So moving forward, as Peter was just saying, the banks continue to grow their share of the gross loan portfolio. It's a bank group which is structured with a lead regulator in Singapore. So international investors can feel confident of the compliance and the strength of that -- the strength of that structure for the banks. Gross loan portfolio growth, obviously is outpacing cost structure significantly. We're coming through that breakeven point now. So this is where the operating leverage really kicks in. and the returns from the Financial Services segment will start to accelerate from here. The proposed acquisition of Atome adds consumer lending on a massive scale. So most of our lending so far has been to drivers and merchants, but now with Atome coming in these more mature consumer lending models like open loop BNPL, which would have taken us many years to develop and now available to us to distribute immediately and the network of 30,000 retail brands that they work with already also available to our platform, not just for financial services but also for advertising and partnering on e-commerce. So very well positioned for future growth. We're focused on the partners, as I said historically, but now this addition of this very large TAM for consumer lending comes into site. That gives us confidence in line of sight of the $500 million EBITDA target for 2028. So financial services already becoming a major driver of our growth in EBITDA to that total group number of $1.7 billion in 2028. At that point, the loan book will be above $6 billion, including Atome, obviously subject to completion. But that's still just a medium-term milestone. In my view, as we mentioned at the time that we announced the time, the consumer TAM here is much, much larger. And so we could be 10x higher than we are in terms of consumer penetration than where we will end this year 2026 with our $3 billion loan book. So lots and lots of runway for us to grow this business and make significant contribution to Grab's future growth and future market cap.

Douglas Eu

Thanks, Alex. So we move on to the next question, which is on Indonesia, a question also from several analysts, including Navin of UBS, Piyush of HSBC, Thomas at Jefferies and John from Daiwa. Just a question for Alex. In Indonesia, can you share if there's any update on potential regulatory intervention in the delivery segment? And what could be the likely impact of the regulations?

Alexander Charles Hungate

Yes. As I mentioned in my remarks, the written remarks accompanying the release, we are very concerned about the plight of the drivers faced with the high fuel costs that we're seeing globally. And so we have been leaning in heavily to make sure that their income keeps pace. And in addition, we've been leaning in with additional driver incentives as well to support them during these difficult times. We are working closely with governments also. So in the case of Indonesia, the Indonesian ministries, including [indiscernible], the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Manpower as the government evaluates the regulatory frameworks for on-demand logistics and food delivery. I think our counterparts in the government truly appreciate that our platform and the other delivery platforms provide earning opportunities for those millions of everyday entrepreneurs in Indonesia. And so any regulation that is implemented must not damage those earning opportunities. So we have to proceed carefully and in partnership with government. So our understanding is these guidelines will focus on helping the driver earnings and fee transparency. And so we'll focus on that with them. We'll continue the constructive dialogue. We're not in a position to reveal any new details, but the details are starting to emerge. And as we hear about those, we'll let you know as soon as possible, but we don't expect any of the business implications of those new guidelines to materially impact our guidance outlook.

Douglas Eu

Thanks, Alex. So next question is on capital allocation. Also a question from several analysts, including Divya at Morgan Stanley, Jiong at Barclays, Hussaini of Maybank, Sachin of Bank of America and Jacqueline of CGS. This is a question for Peter. So Peter, following the rejection of the foodpanda Taiwan acquisition, are you exploring alternative acquisition opportunities, how would you weigh these against further share buybacks? And how incremental in addition to that, with regard to the Financial Services segment, how much incremental corporate capital do you need to scale the loan book?

Peter Oey

Yes. Look, we are disappointed with the outcome of foodpanda Taiwan acquisition, we were anticipating it. But at the same time, also, we respect the decision made by the TFTC in Taiwan. It also adds another $550 million of additional cash to the balance sheet. So from an M&A and capital allocation perspective, let me just frame it this way. When it comes to M&A discipline, we're very anchored on investing first in our core mobility, deliveries and financial services business. And you've seen that track record that we've been doing. We couldn't get there in terms of Taiwan, but hopefully, with Atome, which Alex spoke about is the next 1 that we feel very, very passionate about. It really opens up a great opportunity into our ecosystem. It is also a sizable acquisition that we're doing at the same time also, we're working with the regulators just to make sure also that this 1 has the comfort that we want to get through by the time of next year.

Now at the same time also, we have to invest on our organic business. And that's what we've been doing. You saw that in the Q3 results, we talked a little bit about the guidance for Q4 and how we think about the fiscal year also. Alex spoke about Grab Mall and Grab Mart, how we're investing that also at the same time. We are going to continue to lean in around affordability which is really important, when you see the MTU growing at 20% year-over-year basis, reaching 57 million MTUs. We added 3 million Southeast Asian into the platform itself shows that we have to continue to lean in giving access to sell these agents to use our products, and it has to be affordable and reliable and accessible at the same time. At the same time, also, we have to linear invest organically on our partners' earnings. And Alex spoke about that, Anthony spoke about whether it's related to AI or whether it's related to fuel subsidies or whether it's related to the way they are able to earn also in working with our regulators, that is really critical. And we're not going to stop. We're going to continue to lean in to make sure our merchants and our drivers continue to earn more on the platform. We are also continuing to make sure that our products when it comes to lending is accessible to our public as well as to our partners at the same time. And Atome will unlock that at greater scale for us. And that's indeed a very perfect example where scale can multiply. Alex is set on we're just scratching the surface with consumer credit. The TAM of consumer credit is 10x what Alex just spoke about, and we think it's more than that. So we are very, very eager and keen to actually unlock that box in consumer credit in a prudent way in Southeast Asia, and we'll continue to invest in that. Now we are also always looking at long term. How do my capital allocation strategy in working with Anthony and Alex is to think long term for the business. And we've continued to see where can the business continue to grow and evolve over the next 5 to 10 years. And we have been making those bets. You said it in autonomous vehicles, for example, we're increasing cars in Singapore in anticipation of the introduction of a widely more usage of autonomous vehicles, we're adding another 40 cars of autonomous vehicles. We're making those investments. We're making investments in robotics offer at the same time. We're making investments in AI also at the same time. So those are more longer-term bets that we will use our balance sheet to make sure that those long-term bets are also important, but also prudent at the same time.

Now excess capital will always be there, and we know that. and you all of you are watching the balance sheet all the time. So we are very focused on shareholders' value. So what do we do? September, October, we accelerated the share buyback, and we repurchased $400 million in those last 2 months. I'm committed. So as Anthony and Alex to make sure that we complete the remaining $500 million of our $900 million program over the next 12 months. If we can do it earlier, we'll do it earlier, but we intend to make sure that, that $900 million gets done by September of next year, and we intend to cancel all those repurchase shares also as part of that program. We do generate cash in the business. You see it in the numbers, $553 million. We almost doubled the free cash flow, and we will continue to use that cash to good use. I can show you to our shareholders that I am very conscious that the balance sheet that we have is a privilege, and we will make sure also that our shareholders' return when it comes to the balance sheet itself. And we will make sure that we balance sheet also continues to be very healthy in a net cash position.

Douglas Eu

Thank you, Peter. So the next question is from Venu of Bernstein, and this is a question for Anthony. So a question here is, would Grab be willing to partner with global firms such as Uber to minimize long-term risk?

Ping Yeow Tan

Thanks, Venu. Let me say what I take the longer-term risk to be so I answer the right question. There is that matter globally over the next 10, 20 years of technology shifts, so we talked about AI agents, agents changing how people transact autonomous vehicles, changing hub will get around all answer to both is the same. We partner with the best in the world we bring their technology, we localize it in Southeast Asia on our platform.

Now on Uber specifically, you called out Uber has been a shareholder since 2018 and Dara and I speak regularly. Today, an Uber user, Travel in Southeast Asia can book a grab ride inside the Uber app and a graft user traveling into the U.S. can both Uber inside ours, that works with travelers and brings demand to both platforms. We take the same approach with others. In AI, as I shared earlier, we will go open AI across the region and manage news in Singapore. In autonomous vehicles, we have invested. We ride and momentum to bring robotaxis to the region and A-I-R, AIR, our public autonomous right service in Bongo, Singapore is already carrying passengers with commercial service on the Grab app to come. So we have partnered for years, and we will continue to do so. What we bring with each of these partnerships is our on the ground network. The biggest driver, Army, merchants, maps, licenses across 900-plus cities across ovens Asia. We are all in on Southeast Asia, and I'm convinced that this region will continue to grow strongly in the years to come will Grab as its key enabler. And that is why we see today global companies come to us when they want to reach the real Southeast Asia across the region and is why new technology here continues to arrive in Grab.

Douglas Eu

Thank you, Anthony. So the next question is on autonomous vehicle strategy. This question is from Divya of Morgan Stanley at Venu of Bernstein. This is a question for Alex. So can you share your latest thoughts on what does the eventual autonomous vehicle business model look like between grab the fleet owner and AV technology provider, could AVs ultimately disintermediate Grab or do you think Grab's demand aggregation, payments and fleet orchestration mean AV operators will still need Grab as a distribution layer? It's a question for Alex.

Alexander Charles Hungate

Thanks, Divya. Yes, you started to -- even in the question, you started to kind of outline how we feel about this. So first of all, AVs are still in the early stages in Singapore. So we've already clocked over 100,000 kilometers in local trials, and we have plans to expand our fleet here in Singapore by fivefold. Currently, we're growing it to 50 vehicles, and we're preparing to launch the commercial autonomous ride hailing on the Grab app in the coming months. So the steady state model divides into basically 3 specialized layers. There's the AV OEM, the technology provider, and they develop and license the autonomous driving stack with the remote guidance software that's necessary to make that run. Then there's a fleet owner of financier. They fund the capital expenditure. They take the capital they take the depreciation through the P&L and balance sheet. And then they manage the depot charging, the cleaning, the maintenance. And then there's the orchestrator. So that's primarily grab, platform orchestrator, demand aggregator. In some cases, Grab can also get involved in depot management where necessary to get things running.

Now the -- our track record in Southeast Asia has been to develop relationships with those fleet owners and fleet operators, okay? So we can continue that model. So we ourselves remain primarily asset-light under that model. But the fleet operators who in -- who currently are using conventional vehicles, so not AV, but the standard driver driven vehicles. We will work with them to transition into this new world. In some cases, with our banks, we can help them with financing as well. And so we can add capacity as demand grows. So although at the start, where AV is currently a very young technology, and we are developing the capabilities to understand how they interact with the right health platform, what kind of depot management and fleet management capabilities are needed. As we scale to massive asset deployment, hundreds of billions or many trillions of dollars of AV asset deployment in the long run. Then we will combine a ride-hailing technology with its new hands on AV experience. And then we'll be able to optimize the integration with the OEM to get the optimum integration of demand and fleet management, working with regulators, those technology partners and the communities on the ground as we always have.

Now let's focus specifically on Southeast Asia because AVs cannot handle Southeast Asia transportation are lower at the moment with a lot of weather, huge extreme tropical monsoons, et cetera. So there are lots of operational edge cases where the technology is still developing. And then more -- probably more significantly, even once the technology can overcome those, the cost displacement curve for human drivers in Southeast Asia is going to be many, many years. So it's not like North America where the driver cost per hour is much higher than it is here. In most of our markets, it's going to be a very long transition probably a decade, something like that, where there's drivers and AVs working side by side. And that's obviously where the platform orchestration is critical. So we'll have a hybrid dispatch orchestration, low balancing between AVs, human drivers, some passengers will need assistance. So they don't have preferences for human drivers, the passengers might have preferences for AVs, but that's all going to be orchestrated through the app. And those passengers, of course, are not just using mobility. In the Grab app, the super app, they're using all out of the services as well. And you can see from our numbers that the intensity of cross-sell between food, mobility, financial services and now Grab Mart and Grab Mall as well is very intense. So the customer relationship is very much intact with Grab. So we're confident that our goal of scaling AVs with fleet partners across Southeast Asia in the coming years in this asset-light model in complement with the human driver fleet is something where -- which will just enhance the position of our platform as the orchestration layer across all of those partnerships.

Douglas Eu

Thanks, Alex. So we have time for 1 last question. So the final question is on Grab Unlimited, and this is a question from Wei of Mizuho. A question for Alex. Subscribers are now over 20% of deliveries MTUs, but they generate 35% of deliveries GMV and to transact nearly 3x as frequently as nonsubscribers. So this scale is a larger economic benefit coming from higher order frequency, lower acquisition and retention costs? Or is it greater cross-sell into mobility and financial services?

Alexander Charles Hungate

Yes. Thanks, Wei. You're right to highlight Grab Unlimited. It's a critical relationship building tool for us, which drives primarily frequency and retention. So grab unlimited users transact over 3x more than nonusers and have significantly higher retention rate. So that's the key benefit from the program. They also allow us to reduce promotions. So consumer incentives outside of Grab Unlimited can come down from where they were before Grab Unlimited has had such high penetration, and that also helps to fund the program. The benefits today concentrate primarily in deliveries, but we've begun to extend it to mobility benefits in these markets in particular, where we've got very healthy supply situations. And that is working very well and has improved our cross-sell and retention on the mobility side as well. And then merchants are very interested in this universe of GU users. They know that those are the ones with the high spend and the high frequency. So they're very important customers for our merchants to have access. So a lot of spend on the platform is from merchant-funded promotions. And you can see that, that's gone up 48% year-on-year and a meaningful portion of that increase is driven by merchants wanting to reach the grab unlimited user base with their exclusive offers. So a great time to join Grab Unlimited with all those exclusive offers, but also a very attractive magnet for merchants to drive their success as well. So you should expect us to continue to expand Grub Unlimited for deliveries, continue to drive penetration into the other verticals. And you can also expect us to use Grab Unlimited to extend benefits beyond the ecosystem. We are leveraging, for example, there's a partnership with OpenAI to offer free ChatGPT Plus and Trip.com booking discounts. So that's going to be an avenue that you see more and more of also. So we can bring new benefits for our loyal grab unlimited customers.

Douglas Eu

Thanks very much, everyone. So that brings us to the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the time over to Peter for the closing remarks.

Peter Oey

Thanks, Doug. Look, before we wrap up, I just want to take a moment to acknowledge what this year, the last 9 months has delivered. Adjusted EBITDA reached a new record levels in every quarter. Our financial services business cross into profitability, and we have nearly doubled the trailing 12 months adjusted free cash flow. That reflects the durability of the Grab platform itself.

Now in addition also, we backed up with capital. So we've repurchased $400 million of shares in September and October, and we are reflected in our guidance, raising both revenue and also adjusted EBITDA for the full year for the second time this year. As I always remind the Grab team, this is not a one-quarter story. It's the trajectory where it counts. These milestones would not be possible without the trust of everyone who relies on graph. Our drivers and our merchant partners, thank you. It's what has been a rough quarter for a lot of you, given the weather as well as the fuel prices. So thank you by our merchant partners also for the restaurants. Thank you for supporting us. And to the millions of consumers who use the Grab services every day. Thank you for trusting Grab. Thank you for opening up the app, ordering a ride, ordering a book, ordering a restaurant for delivery, [indiscernible]. Thank you for doing that. And also to all our Grabbers who worked tirelessly in the third quarter and all through this year. Thank you very much.

So Anthony, Alex and I also want to thank our shareholders also for your continued support. As usual, the IR team will be on the road over the next few weeks. I do reach out will be in a few countries, including Singapore, also. So feel free to reach out. We'd love to have a dialogue with you but even so don't have a coffee with you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today and see you in the next quarter.