Invitation Homes (INVH) 2026 年第三季法說會：上調 FFO 財測指引，實施 5 億美元庫藏股

重點總覽

• Invitation Homes 公布 2026 年第三季每股核心營運資金 (FFO) 為 0.48 美元，年增 2.4%。每股調整後營運資金 (AFFO) 為 0.38 美元，略高於去年同期。
• 同店淨營運收入 (NOI) 成長 1.1%，反映出核心營收成長 1.6% 以及核心營運費用成長 2.5%。
• 同店綜合租金成長率季增至 3.0%。續約租金成長率達 4.3%，而新租約租金成長率則為負 0.2%。
• 該公司將全年每股核心 FFO 指引中位數上調 0.01 美元至 1.94-1.98 美元，並將同店 NOI 成長率指引的中位數提高至 1.2%。
• Invitation Homes 自 12 月起至法說會前一週二止，回購了約 9.89 億美元的股票，相當於在外流通股數的 6% 左右。董事會授權了新的 5 億美元股票回購計畫。
• 管理層對影子租賃供應、較高的房貸利率以及季節性租賃壓力保持謹慎，但表示房客需求與續約趨勢依然健康。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

續約仍是租金成長的主要來源。管理層表示，續約約佔整體租賃合約的 75%，通常帶來 3.5%-4.5% 的成長。第三季平均月租金年增 1.8%。

10 月初估結果顯示綜合租金成長率為 2.2%，其中包括續約成長 4.2% 與新租約成長負 2.2%。10 月出租率為 96.1%，與去年同期大致持平。管理層表示 11 月的續約趨勢與 10 月類似。

需求指標維持支撐力道。Invitation Homes 報告健康的潛在客戶量與看房量，以及穩健的轉化率。根據加權至該公司市場所做的 John Burns 數據，截至 9 月，租房每月比購屋便宜超過 1,000 美元。房客平均入住時間超過 41 個月。

供應情況好壞參半。8 月大型獨棟住宅租賃業者的新掛牌量年減 13%，包含亞特蘭大、坦帕和鳳凰城的下降。管理層亦引用 John Burns 的數據指出，建租型住宅 (build-to-rent) 交屋量在 2024 年達到頂峰，預計至 2027 年及 2028 年將持續放緩。然而，該公司正密切關注來自房屋建商、非預期房東 (accidental landlords) 以及較小型租賃業者的潛在供應。

可控費用上升 4.9%，主因夏季極端高溫增加了維修、公用事業及暖通空調 (HVAC) 相關成本。固定費用僅增加 1.1%，因為略為下降的地產稅抵銷了較高的保險與屋主協會 (HOA) 費用。

Invitation Homes 亦持續推動租金收取與屋主協會 (HOA) 功能的集中化管理。其升級後的房客 CRM 系統已推廣給租賃業務人員，同時其網路、媒體以及洗衣機與烘衣機方案亦在擴展中。管理層表示，這些投資人日提出的策略專案進度均正常或超前，不過公司原本就預計現代化計畫要到 2028 年才會帶來效益增益。

資本配置與資產負債表

Invitation Homes 在第三季出售了 658 套全資擁有的房屋，總收益約為 3.18 億美元，平均每套約 484,000 美元。在收購 216 套全資房屋後，處置淨收益約為 2.45 億美元。

該公司在本季動用 2.5 億美元回購了約 890 萬股股票。自 12 月起至法說會前一週二止，該公司共以 9.89 億美元回購了約 3,700 萬股，平均每股價格為 26.78 美元。

管理層表示，自 12 月以來的房屋出售平均每套總價約為 460,000 美元，而回購股票所付出的股價折合每套房屋價值約為 280,000 美元。當管理層認為股價出現顯著折價時，公司計劃繼續利用處置收益進行股票回購，但需視槓桿程度、稅務空間及市場狀況而定。

總債務中約有 90% 為無擔保債務、90% 為固定利率或已避險轉為固定利率，且約 90% 的全資住宅無抵押負擔。2017-1 證券化專案剩餘的 5 億美元將於 2027 年 6 月到期，在此之前無其他到期債務。

管理層財務指引

• 2026 全年每股核心 FFO 指引上調至 1.94-1.98 美元，中位數上調 0.01 美元。
• 全年同店營收成長率區間有所收窄，同時管理層對既定的中位數保持信心。
• 同店費用成長率指引下調了 30 個基點，主因是預期的地產稅費用有所下降。
• 同店 NOI 成長率指引的中位數上調至 1.2%。
• 全資資產處置指引上調至 9 億至 10 億美元，中位數增加 1 億美元。截至 9 月，該公司已完成 8.33 億美元的資產處置。
• 管理層繼續以全年綜合租金成長率落在 2% 中段為目標，主要由續約支撐。

風險與關注事項

較高的房貸利率提高了租房的相對可負擔性，並可能對續約形成支撐，但管理層警告，若建商未售出的庫存或非預期房東擁有的房屋進入租賃市場，也可能會增加租賃供應。

新租約租金成長率維持負數，並面臨正常的季節性壓力。管理層計劃在冬季期間平衡出租率與定價，以避免帶著高空置庫存進入 2027 年。

第三季呆帳率為 75 個基點，今年累計為 60 個基點，處於管理層所提及疫情前 40 至 60 個基點的區間內。公司表示下半年的季節性屬於正常現象，尚未發現房客財務狀況出現更廣泛轉弱的跡象。

資產處置與股票回購的能力受到槓桿及不動產投資信託 (REIT) 稅務考量的限制。管理層指出，物業出售收益會計入應課稅所得，且可用的稅務規劃工具每年可能有所不同。

《21 世紀房屋道路法案》（21st Century ROAD to Housing Act）擬議的規章仍處於預告公眾意見階段。管理層形容初步架構總體可行，但預計會在條文文字可改進之處提供反饋。

分析師問答重點

• 房屋出售：管理層表示待售天數並未發生重大變化，儘管評估近期利率上升的影響還為時過早。第四季通常是房屋銷售最淡的時期。
• 2027 年資本配置：該公司並未提供 2027 年的處置或回購目標。管理層表示未來的行動將取決於槓桿狀況、市場條件及稅務空間。
• 交易市場：Invitation Homes 發現尋求減少現置庫存的建商主動洽詢興趣有所增加，包括來自新交易對手的詢問以及潛在更大折扣。該公司還透過合資企業完成了約 8,000 萬美元的物業組合收購，資本化率高於 6%。
• Pathway Homes：併入約 800 至 900 套 Pathway 房屋預計對損益表影響大致中性。該合資專案中僅有不到 10 位客戶購買了其租住的房屋，Invitation Homes 將繼續履行現有合約。
• 佛羅里達州供應：管理層觀察到南佛羅里達州的供應略高，但奧蘭多、坦帕及傑克遜維爾的同比趨勢正在改善。影子供應依然難以衡量，特別是在較小型的房東之間。
• 收購與買回庫藏股比較：管理層表示，在過去四個季度中，股票回購仍是其最有吸引力的資本運用管道。新增收購需要提供足夠有吸引力的報酬率，才能與買回庫藏股競爭。

法說會完整逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Welcome to the Invitation Homes Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Scott McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Scott McLaughlin

Thank you, operator, and good morning. On the call today, we'll hear from Dallas Tanner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Tim Lobner, our Chief Operating Officer; and Jon Olsen, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions from our covering sell-side analysts. During today's call, we may reference our third quarter 2026 earnings release and supplemental information. We issued this document yesterday afternoon after the market closed, and it's available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.invh.com.

Certain statements we make during this call may include forward-looking statements relating to the future performance of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources and other nonhistorical statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated. We describe some of these risks and uncertainties in our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. Except to the extent otherwise required by law, we do not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in yesterday's earnings release. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dallas Tanner. Please begin, Dallas.

Dallas Tanner

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Since our Investor Day last November, we've been focusing on executing the plan we laid out while serving residents better, running more efficiently and allocating capital in ways that create the most value for stockholders. It's been an eventful year, and I want to thank our associates for staying focused on our residents. Helping families find quality homes they can afford is common ground for us, for policymakers and most importantly, for our residents. Last week, Treasury released proposed regulations under the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act that are now open for public comment. Our preliminary read is that the framework is workable, generally in line with what Congress intended. We're reviewing the details, will remain engaged in the comment process.

Millions of American families rely on leasing a single-family home. It's important they continue to have that flexible and affordable choice. Through it all, our associates delivered another solid quarter. Same-store blended rent growth came in at 3%, our best quarter of the year, with renewals at 4.3%. We also grew core FFO per share 2.4% to $0.48. This performance reflects a resilient business and a team that delivers. Part of this resilience comes from healthy demand for our homes. Based on John Burns' data and weighted to our markets, as of September, it was an average over $1,000 a month cheaper to lease a home than own one. As mortgage rates rise, that gap likely widens. With our average resident staying with us for more than 41 months, this adds up to savings of over $42,000. That's money a family could put toward a down payment on a home of their own if they should so choose.

Nowhere is our discipline clearer than in how we've allocated capital this past year. As you've seen, we sold a substantial number of homes in the open market this year, mostly to families buying for their own use. These sales give us real-time read on both value and demand. Since December of last year, our average gross sales price has been approximately $460,000 per home. Meanwhile, at the prices at which we've been buying back our own stock, the market is valuing our homes at only $280,000 each. It's one thing to say our stock is undervalued. It's another to act on it again and again. And that's what we've done. This past year, we've repurchased nearly $1 billion of our stock, which represents 6% of our shares outstanding, funded in large part by proceeds from home sales.

Against our revised full year disposition guidance midpoint of $950 million, we've already sold $833 million through September. We've been pleased with the execution to date. In fact, we believe that we bought back more stock this past year than any other residential REIT. In addition, the new $500 million repurchase program our Board just authorized, we intend to keep funding buybacks with home sale proceeds whenever our stock trades at a meaningful discount to the value of our homes, guided by market conditions and a disciplined approach to the balance sheet. In summary, our business remains healthy and leasing offers real value that our residents appreciate. We're focused on earning their trust every day with the same discipline we bring to allocating capital. With that, I'll hand it over to Tim to discuss our operating results.

Tim Lobner

Thanks, Dallas, and good morning, everyone. The story this quarter is renewal strength, partly offset by softer new lease growth with fundamentals that remain supportive as we head into year-end. During the third quarter, our teams delivered same-store NOI growth of 1.1% year-over-year. That reflects core revenue growth of 1.6%, tempered by core operating expense growth of 2.5%. Breaking that down, let me cover revenue first, where rent growth was the key driver. Blended rent growth was 3% in the third quarter, up from 2.7% in the second quarter and 1.6% in the first, representing sequential improvement in each quarter of 2026 year-to-date.

Looking at the components, rent growth is driven largely by renewals. Renewal rents grew 4.3% in the third quarter, a full point above the second quarter. New lease rent growth was negative 0.2% or 50 basis points better than last year. That is down from positive 1.2% in the second quarter, but in line with normal seasonal patterns. Together, those produced the 3% blend in the third quarter. Beyond rent growth, average monthly rent grew 1.8% year-over-year. Turnover edged down 10 basis points to 6.2% and occupancy averaged 96.4% for the quarter. Let me add some additional color, beginning with supply. Supply from large single-family rental operators has been moderating. According to John Burns' data, listings were down 13% year-over-year in August, including declines in our 3 largest markets of Atlanta, Tampa and Phoenix.

Build-to-rent deliveries also peaked 2 years ago in 2024, and Burn expects the pace to keep slowing through 2027 and 2028. That data tells part of the story. Mom-and-pop landlords matter here, too. They're harder to measure and can play a sizable role within infill neighborhoods. We're also watching the for-sale side. Higher mortgage rates are contributing to greater supply in some markets, resulting in unsold homes from both accidental landlords and builders. In short, the supply picture remains mixed, and we'll continue to monitor it. Though at present, we do not see any signals that warrant a change to our approach. On the demand front, conditions remain healthy. Lead and showing volumes are meeting or beating last year's levels, and we continue to move homes steadily through the re-leasing process.

Turning now to expenses. Core expenses grew 2.5% in the third quarter and 3.3% year-to-date, which is inside our full year guidance range. Fixed expenses grew just 1.1% in the quarter as slightly lower property taxes offset higher insurance and HOA costs. Controllable expenses grew 4.9%, mostly on higher repair and utility expenses as a result of this summer's extreme heat. Now to October. Preliminary same-store results showed blended rent growth of 2.2%, slightly ahead of last year and reflecting an expected seasonal moderation from the third quarter. Within that, new lease rent growth improved 100 basis points from a year ago to negative 2.2% and renewal rent growth was 4.2%, in line with last year.

October average occupancy was 96.1%, nearly flat with a year ago. Beyond the leasing numbers, our teams continue to make progress on several of our Investor Day initiatives, including centralizing our rent collection and HOA functions. We've also advanced our resident CRM system, which lets us communicate with residents on a more personal basis. We look forward to sharing more as we get further along. As we move into the winter months, we'll continue to balance occupancy with rate with the goal of starting the new year from a strong position. Thank you to all of our teams for their hard work behind these results and for their continued efforts as we close out the year. Jon, over to you.

Jonathan Olsen

Thanks, Tim. This morning, I'll cover 4 things: an update on our capital allocation activity, third quarter results, the balance sheet and guidance. I'll start with capital allocation since this has been a big focus for us this past year. During the third quarter, we sold 658 wholly owned homes for gross proceeds of approximately $318 million, representing an average sale price of about $484,000 per home. Net of the 216 wholly owned homes we acquired in the third quarter, most of which were deliveries from our builder partners, net disposition proceeds were approximately $245 million. These disposition proceeds went toward repurchasing approximately 8.9 million shares of our stock for $250 million in the third quarter. Since last December and through this past Tuesday, we've repurchased approximately 37 million shares for a total of $989 million at an average repurchase price of $26.78 per share.

That represents buybacks totaling 6% of our outstanding shares in less than 1 years' time, while staying within our targeted leverage range. In addition, our Board has just authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program, which gives us the ability to continue buying back stock while it trades at a meaningful discount to the value of our homes with the same discipline you've seen from us to date. Turning now to third quarter results. Core FFO per share was $0.48, up 2.4% from a year ago, while AFFO per share was $0.38, up slightly from last year.

As Tim mentioned, same-store property taxes were a favorable factor in the quarter, down slightly year-over-year. Florida and Georgia together make up more than half of our total property tax expense and both states send their final bills later in the year. The bills we've received thus far are coming in better than we originally expected, and we'll keep monitoring as the rest arrive and give a final update on our next earnings call. Moving now to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of available liquidity. Roughly 90% of our total debt is unsecured, 90% is fixed rate or swapped to fixed rate and about 90% of our wholly owned homes are unencumbered.

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.5x, within our 5.5 to 6x target range and up slightly from 5.4x last quarter. As we discussed on last quarter's call, in July, we issued $500 million of long 5-year bonds with a coupon of 4.95% and used the net proceeds to prepay about half of our 2017-1 securitization. The remaining $500 million of our 2017-1 securitization matures in June 2027, and we have no other debt maturing before then. Lastly, guidance. You can refer to last night's earnings release for the complete details, but here are the highlights. Based on our year-to-date results, we've raised our full year 2026 guidance for core FFO per share by $0.01 at the midpoint to a range of $1.94 to $1.98 per share.

We've also narrowed our full year same-store revenue growth guidance range, lowered our same-store expense growth guidance range by 30 basis points, mostly due to lower anticipated property tax expense and slightly raised our same-store NOI growth guidance to a midpoint of 1.2%. In addition, we've raised the midpoint of our wholly owned disposition guidance by $100 million to a range of $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting the strong execution of our disposition program this year. Looking ahead, our priorities are unchanged, serve our residents well, run the business efficiently and put capital where it creates the most value for stockholders. This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nick Joseph with Citi.

分析師問答

Eric Wolfe

It's Eric here with Nick. You're probably one of the largest home sellers in the market. I think that's probably fair to say. I'm just curious if you've seen any change in your ability to sell as interest rates have risen versus a couple of months ago. And I think at this time last year, you started to see a bit more pressure from some shadow rental supply. So I was just curious about whether you're seeing any of that this year? And if you could maybe give us your expectation for how occupancy should trend over the next couple of months, just given the balance between supply and demand.

Scott McLaughlin

Nick, thanks for the question. It's Scott. Listen, we've had a very measured pace of how we've been managing our disposition program this year. As always, we start the year with a pre-identified list of homes that have been identified by our asset management team for disposition. When a house becomes vacant, it goes through our process to evaluate it for sale. I think that, as you can see, we've been very successful this year in terms of executing on the sales. What we disclosed in the third quarter is obviously our sales through September 30. The move in the interest rates has obviously happened in the last 30 days, and it's just frankly, just a little too soon to see what impact it would have on anything going forward. But thus far, year-to-date, I think we're pleased with the execution we've seen.

We're pleased with our days on market. To date, we've seen no material change in the amount of time it takes us to sell a home. So I think from our perspective, look, we're watching this very closely. The fourth quarter is always our slowest period for the selling season of homes in general. So we'll see where we end up in the fourth quarter. But like I said, this is usually our slowest quarter, and we're watching it, and we'll be able to give guidance when we're ready.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa

Tim, I appreciate the October trends. Could you maybe just talk about where you're sending out renewal notices maybe for like November, December, January? And could you just quickly comment on the bad debt trend? I think that ticked up about 20 basis points in the quarter.

Tim Lobner

Thanks, Steve. Yes, I appreciate the question. We typically don't share what we go out at on our renewal offers. And we did finish October at 4.2%. I can tell you that November is looking a lot like October. As I've shared in the past, both on earnings calls and in investor meetings that the renewal book of business, which accounts for 75% of the book, generally runs 3.5% to 4.5%, super reliable part of our rent growth. And look, it's a reflection, I think, of the good service our teams are providing. And as you know, our residents vote with their pen and their pocketbook. So again, that 75% book of the business is an important part.

I'd say we're cautiously optimistic about the balance of the year, and we're going to watch those renewal rates closely. You asked about bad debt. Look, bad debt was 75 basis points for the quarter. I'd point out that over the course of the year, we are at 60 basis points of bad debt, right in line with our pre-pandemic range of 40 to 60 basis points. We're going to continue to watch that in the fall. As we've talked about in the past, there is a degree of seasonality that comes with bad debt that we typically see come into the system in the second half of the year. But that's a pretty normal course of business for us.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

James Feldman

Between the acquisitions completed during the third quarter and Pathway consolidation, you increased your exposure in several markets where leasing remains softer due to supply. Can you distinguish how much of that reflects existing homebuilder commitments or the Pathway reclassification versus a deliberate decision to add capital in those markets? And what property or submarket characteristics give you confidence in the long-term returns in those markets despite weaker near-term lease pricing?

Jonathan Olsen

Sure. I'll start with just the Pathway observation. The Pathway was showing up in our financial statements previously in management fee income. Now that we have consolidated those homes, you'll see management fee income tick down. NOI will step up commensurately and we'll have a little bit of a good guy just because our cost of capital is better and we'll no longer be paying certain fees that were going out the door. But in terms of footprint, I think Pathway is quite small relative to the overall enterprise. So I think we'll evaluate those homes. The investment decisions vis-a-vis the Pathway portfolio were not made by us. And so I think as we look at where those 800, 900 homes are, we're pretty comfortable with those markets. And I would note that we effectively already represented 100% of the equity in those assets. The only difference is we have now consolidated those. And so I think from a P&L perspective, it should be neutral.

Dallas Tanner

One other thought, just to add to Jon, this is Dallas. We've operated these assets for a number of years. So it wasn't like there was new inventory coming in line with your questioning around adding additional supply. Look, I think the supply question at large is a good one. We've seen it incrementally come down year-over-year. Tim talked about that in his numbers. If last year per se, we troughed, we're seeing new lease being a little bit better at this time of the year versus last. All things being equal, the blend is also better, call it, 10, 20 bps year-over-year. So we're encouraged by the progress that the market is making in digesting both the new BTR supply, existing homebuilder stock. I think we have to be mindful, and Tim and I watch this and talk about this all the time, is in an elevated mortgage rate environment, it's obviously beneficial for our renewals business, but it could bring additional supply pressure around new lease sites.

So we'll be mindful of that. We'll watch that over the coming quarters and see what happens with existing homebuilder stock. Does that go into the marketplace in the for rent space? And what do the mom-and-pops do that are maybe sitting on a home they're trying to sell. Does that then kind of come back into play as well. So it's too early to tell on any of those from a supply-oriented story, but it's something we're mindful of and we pay attention to.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

Nahom Tesfazghi

You have Nahom on for Tony this morning. I guess could you maybe expand on your expectations and maybe the building blocks you're expecting for 4Q? I think the same-store revenue guide implies a step-up in the fourth quarter. Can you help us understand what gets us there? I think Tim mentioned earlier that October occupancy was flat. So just trying to understand where the pickup comes from.

Jonathan Olsen

Yes. It's a good question. I think as we look at the fourth quarter, I would point out a couple of things. One, it's a relatively easy comp for us based on what took place in the fourth quarter of last year. And secondly, I think, as Tim touched on, we are pleased to see that occupancy is sort of moving in a better direction than it was this time last year. So I think there'll be some benefit from that as well. And as Dallas mentioned, on the blend, we're just seeing a little bit better blended rent growth than we were this time last year. So when we put it together that is what gives us comfort. I think there's enough of the year left to go that we need to continue to focus on the things that are going to move the needle, and I think we are.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria

I guess a 2-part question. One, just piggybacking on the last question. Is there any preference or comfort level within the same-store revenue range? And part 2 would be, you mentioned the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act and the details starting to come out there. Anything you're trying to push back on or get clarified? I think there was something about the timing of when you have to acquire both for rent and would that maybe limit what you can buy from some of your homebuilder programs and the timing of that?

Jonathan Olsen

Juan, it's Jon. I'll take the first part of the question, and Dallas can cover the ROAD Act. Look, I mean, there's a reason that our guidance is a range. We're not 10 basis points smart one way or the other. I think we are still comfortable with our midpoints. As we look to the fourth quarter, the things I just referenced in my prior response are the things that give us comfort with continuing on with the midpoint we've already established. But we'll see where we are at the end of the year and report back.

Dallas Tanner

And I'll take -- share some thoughts on the ROAD to Housing question. Look, let me start by saying and sort of reemphasizing that the collaboration with the administration and Treasury is one that I've been quite pleased with in terms of the ability to engage policymakers and have active discussion on some of these topics. The process isn't finished. I think the first draft that's come out has a 30-day review period. I would imagine not only from our trade association, but many associations are looking at the way the language is currently drafted and probably providing feedback. I would expect we'll provide some additional feedback through this process. By and large, from where it sits today, Invitation Homes feels like it can, for the most part, operate within this framework, albeit there might be a couple of areas we'd like to see some of the language or the way things are written be slightly improved, and we'll provide that feedback, and we'll continue to try to work with our elected officials to land this in a place that's not only commercial, but protects the intent of the bill that Congress passed.

So I think by and large, we feel like we're in an okay spot. It's been an interesting year. As you can imagine, we've done a lot of work with our partners in the industry, also in multifamily and homebuilding to focus on this very important issue, which is how do we create additional housing stock, both in the for rent space and the for-sale place. We have a lot of data that suggests our customers are looking for the flexibility that the for lease space services. And so we want to be mindful of that, continue to find ways to innovate and bring more of that supply to the market.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

You guys have continued to lean into the buybacks as you've highlighted, completing $1 billion around where the stock is trading today. Just given that accretion and arbitrage between selling assets and redeploying into shares, why not increase the size of the program? And then, I mean, I guess, how should we think about the pace of dispositions in 2027, just given that earnings accretion math and the attractiveness of that as well as probably the relative quality of what you're selling versus the balance of the portfolio?

Jonathan Olsen

Austin, it's John. That's a good question. I think with respect to repurchases, we manage share repurchases within the leverage range we've articulated. As we sell these homes, we are shrinking the EBITDA that the enterprise throws off and we distribute gains. So sale proceeds don't convert dollar for dollar into buybacks. And so I think the point is that we need to be mindful of the balance sheet. We need to be mindful of market conditions. And those are going to be our sort of 2 north stars as we think about the share repurchase opportunity over time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste

I wanted to ask about the setup here over the next couple of months into '27, understanding it's the shoulder months here. Obviously, you're going to balance occupancy and rate. But curious if you're feeling that perhaps, one, you have a bit more pricing power given slightly higher occupancy versus a year ago. Is there any notable change in kind of the demand versus a year ago? And then some color on earn-in for next year. And one last thing, how much of your lease expirations for the year are -- tend to come up in the fourth and first quarters? I guess I'm curious on the balance of the lease expiration schedule over the course of the year.

Tim Lobner

Haendel, this is Tim. Thanks for the questions. I'll cover supply and demand, and then I'll hand it over for Jon on the earn-in. On the supply side, we keep a really close eye on supply. We're looking carefully in our markets a comparable product, comparable locations, comparable pricing. What I can tell you is broadly across the U.S., we're up slightly year-over-year. But in our markets and IH markets, our footprint, we're actually down slightly year-over-year. Obviously, it varies by market. I think the message that I shared earlier in the year is one that I'll reiterate that the year started much higher on a year-over-year basis in January and has certainly moderated over the course of the year. So we like what we're seeing.

The one area of focus, and Dallas talked about this earlier, was the mom-and-pop shadow supply. We're trying to keep an eye on that. Too early to tell where that's going to go with interest rates where they are. As we look more broadly, though, at the housing supply, it's interesting. Build-to-rents delivery peaked in 2024. The pace of build-to-rent deliveries are anticipated to keep slowing through 2027 and 2028 based on John Burns' data. Apartment completions peaked in 2024, so that's on the downswing. And when you compare kind of the homebuilding side, Burns' data suggests that single-family starts are forecasted down this year 7% and down another 5% next year.

Again, I think our position is fairly good right now in the Sunbelt locations where we are. I think that there -- we think that they're going to continue to perform well. When you look at migration data, which we follow closely, we use Oxford economics, there is certainly some good signals, although not as high as, say, the pandemic period. But the Houston, the Dallas, the Austin, the Tampas and Phoenix and Atlanta, all showing nice signs of movement into the market. On the demand side, look, demand continues to be healthy. We've seen nice demand come into the fall in line with expectations, perhaps even a little bit above our expectations. I think it's a clear signal that single-family rentals continues to play are really important in the housing ecosystem. And it's a good reminder that 35% of people lease something.

Let me break it down a little bit more. External to the company, we look at Google Search data, that's up year-over-year. We look at Zillow and their renter demand index, that's up year-over-year. And then when we look internal at our own funnel, we're seeing healthy lead and showing volume, and that's continuing again into the fall. We're seeing nice conversion rates as well. So I think the long-term story for the portfolio is good, and we like how the end of the year is setting up. But look, there's a degree of cautious optimism here as we watch the rest of the year unfold.

As for the lease expirations, look, I'll answer the question. We try to put about 55% in the first half of the year, kind of Q1, Q2 and then about 45% in the back half in Q3 and Q4. That mirrors kind of how movement in the single-family space. I think broadly how people move, and we continue to manage our lease expiration curve to ensure that we keep that -- keep those numbers. Jon, do you want to talk about?

Jonathan Olsen

Yes, Haendel, I appreciate the question on earn-in. We're going to hold discussion of 2027 until we introduce guidance, and we'll talk about our 2027 view holistically at that time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs.

Julien Blouin

Just a question on shadow supply. It looks like when you look at rental listings inclusive of mom-and-pops and homebuilder stock in recent weeks, it started to pick up, especially, I think, in Florida. I was wondering if you're sort of seeing that on the ground and whether you're seeing any of that show up in pricing, specifically in your Florida market?

Tim Lobner

Look, it's a great question. This is Tim. The supply side, like I mentioned earlier, is an area that we do track closely. I'd say South Florida has shown a little bit more supply on the market, but Orlando, Tampa and even Jacksonville have shown some nice green shoots in terms of less supply year-over-year. Again, when you look at supply numbers, it's tough because people look at different comparable product. We really zone in on, again, comparable product in terms of size, comparable location, submarket specific and then comparable price because that's -- we don't find that people are looking at everything. They're looking at a fairly narrow product offering and price point.

It's hard to tell where the shadow supply that you referenced, there's certainly a lot of articles that we're seeing that talk about accidental landlords and shadow supply, but it's really tough to track. We do our very best capturing information. But remember, that the mom-and-pop, sometimes they're posting yard signs. That's hard to track from a digital footprint. But we do our very best to monitor that, and we've got some -- we've got data that we find is very helpful as we look at being nimble pricers in today's operating environment.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Pawlowski with Green Street.

John Pawlowski

Just one question on the impact from dispositions this year on 2026 same-store. I would imagine that would have some positive lift to the same-store revenue for this year, but the guidance is unchanged since the start of the year. So Jon, can you just help frame what type of impact the disposition had on same-store revenue metrics?

Jonathan Olsen

Yes, John, I mean, I would say that it hasn't actually had an appreciable impact that we've been tracking. I mean the reality is the way from an asset management perspective, we think about the homes that we elect to sell, that review process, that rebuy analysis is looking at things like location, operational KPIs, how long has it taken that home to lease relative to other homes in the submarket? What has our experience been in terms of demand relative to other similar homes in the same area?

And what does that tell us about the home's ability to generate property cash flow over time, right? We are risk-adjusted total return investors, and that total return is driven by sort of property level cash flow. So we're not paying a tremendous amount of attention to the specifics of revenue relative to expense. It's just how much NOI is this home throwing off? Do we think we can grow that NOI over time to a degree that allows for an appropriate sort of rebuy total return view. And if not, then we'll go ahead and put that home on the market and move it off the books and seek to redeploy that capital accretively.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern

Can you hear me?

Scott McLaughlin

Yes. We can hear you.

Brad Heffern

Okay. Just trying Austin's repurchase question from earlier in a different way. Is the '26 volume that you've done something that can be replicated in future years? I know it depends on, obviously, where disposition cap rates are and where the stock is. But just mechanically, is it possible to do this much ratably within the REIT rules and without significant tax consequences? Or is there maybe something that was unique this year in terms of being able to offset the gains of losses somewhere else that maybe isn't around in the same scale in the future?

Jonathan Olsen

Great question. Thanks. As you know, as a REIT, we generally don't pay federal income tax to the extent we fully distribute our taxable income to stockholders. And the gains we realized on disposition of assets are part of that taxable income. We obviously use the tax planning tools available to us to manage the relationship between taxable income and our regular dividend. Some of those tools are finite and their availability changes year-to-year. So tax capacity is one of the factors we weigh in sizing dispositions and share repurchases alongside market condition and leverage. We're comfortable with where we stand for 2026, and we'll say more about 2027 when we give guidance in February.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

Adam Kramer

I wanted to ask about the Pathway Homes sort of update here, I think dissolving that -- I understand sort of the financial impact, Jon. That was really helpful you walked through earlier, but maybe just asking about sort of the strategic decision to what looks like wind that down, sort of what was behind that? And I guess, just overall thoughts on the rent-to-own model at this point.

Dallas Tanner

Yes. This is Dallas. So look, particularly on the model, it's interesting in an elevated mortgage rate environment, rent-to-own as a Pathway for customers could make a lot of sense. It's one of the areas in the ROAD to Housing Act that particularly lawmakers had focused on in creating frameworks with which people could offer rent-to-own products. I do think the private market can solve some of the mortgage imbalances and also help people leg into down payment assistance over time. That being said, we did this in a venture with an operating partner. The expectation from our end is that we would have anchored it like we did 4 or 5 years ago, that we would operate the assets and that they would continue to grow the business.

Timing really is the issue here, I think, for a particular venture. Again, we weren't steering the venture. We just supported it as a GP and the first initial major LP. As the Fed continued to crank on rates, I think fundraising got trickier in that environment. So that being said, we're very familiar with the assets. We've operated them for a number of years. We're familiar with the program. And we're still believers that there are Pathway programs that will work. And I think we'll measure over time and distance how much that operating model could make sense for us in the future.

To date, we've had a very limited amount of customers actually buy their homes. It's less than 10 in that particular venture. We'll continue to honor the contracts and work with customers. And we have a long track record of selling assets to our customers. The take rates are obviously pretty small, by and large, when they choose to execute on these programs in large part because they're down payment light. Most of our customers today are seeking flexibility in a leasing program for a number of reasons. We don't particularly cater to potential homeowners as a way of how we attract our customers today. So there's no real change in how this program is being operated. It's just coming on the balance sheet officially for purposes that Jon stated earlier in the call.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jana Galan with Bank of America.

Jana Galan

Maybe a bigger picture question on the transaction market. I'm curious, Scott, if there's anything you've observed that's changed in terms of volumes, bid-ask spreads over the last 30 days from the homebuilders, portfolio opportunities, BTR development, land sales? And maybe when you look at when the Fed started hiking in 2022, what was the first part of kind of the housing ecosystem that started to reprice?

Scott McLaughlin

Yes. Just in terms of transaction, that's a great question. Thanks. This is Scott. In terms of transaction activity, first of all, look, we have continued to see inventory from the homebuilders in terms of them wanting to sell homes on monthly tapes like we've been looking at for the last few years here. We've seen an increase in the last quarter or so, mainly because I think some of the homebuilders are trying to maybe reduce their standing inventory going into next spring selling season. We actually have a few new builders that have reached out to us for the first time that are people we haven't heard from before.

So I think we've definitely seen an increase of inbound activity from the builders. And I think the builders are clearly interested in potentially doing larger discounts and taking lower margins in order to move that inventory. I think we probably -- last year, we were seeing stuff at a 20% discount to market and to retail values. And now we're probably seeing something at a larger discount to where the list price is. And so that's one thing we've seen in transaction activity that I think is relevant at the moment.

I think the second is the transaction market was on pause probably for the first half of the year because of the ROAD to Housing and people waiting to see some resolution on the legislative side. We've seen some pickup in broker deals in the last quarter or so. I think we're sort of still in that bid-ask exploration stage in terms of where pricing is in the market. I think we've seen, obviously, with the increase in rates, we're waiting to see where that transaction market would settle. Obviously, in terms of our company year-to-date, buybacks have been our primary use of proceeds, but we're monitoring the transaction market closely, and we're curious to see where things settle out, especially with the 10-year being 50 basis points higher than it was in the first half of the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rich Hightower with Barclays.

Richard Hightower

Obviously, covered a lot of ground today. So just one here. But back to the bad debt, slight uptick, which I think had a seasonal component too. But just generally, if we do start to see broader weakness in the consumer or in the sort of core renter demographic in your portfolio, where within the various KPIs should we really expect to see that show up first? Is it bad debt? Is it renewals start to soften? Is it on a lag versus the broader macro? Just tell us how to expect if that were to occur.

Tim Lobner

Rich, thanks for the question. This is Tim. Look, the 80 basis points of bad debt that you mentioned is actually 75 for the quarter. I want to point that out. I also want to point out that, as I mentioned earlier, it's 60 basis points for the year. That's not that large in the grand scheme of things. And it's something we watch closely. We do look for leading indicators. We're not seeing anything broad yet, but we keep a close eye on it. And, like I mentioned earlier, there's certainly a degree of seasonality that comes with this. To the extent that this is any different, it's not. It's something we saw last year, and we'll continue to monitor. Proud of the team and their collection efforts year-to-date.

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Ami Probandt

This is Ami with Michael. Previously, you've discussed full year blended rents coming in, in the mid-2% level, which suggests that blends in the fourth quarter should be a little bit ahead of preliminary October numbers. So, understanding that there are different levers that you can pull, I was hoping that you could address the blend. And then to the extent that occupancy is higher, how much pricing power does that give you across the portfolio given that most of it is scattered site?

Jonathan Olsen

It's Jon. Thanks for the question. I think, as far as the blend goes, we continue to be pleased with what we're seeing. I'll refer back to some of our earlier commentary on the improvement year-over-year on both the new and renewal side. The renewal business continues to really be doing the bulk of the work, and that continues to be, as Tim said, in, kind of, a steady 3.5% to 4.5% range. So, as we look at the balance of the year and how we're going to finish out the year and as we compare it to what our experience was in the fourth quarter last year, that's what gives us comfort, and we're going to continue to drive for that mid-2 blend and focus on controlling the things we can control.

As far as pricing power goes, I would just remind folks that we sort of closed out the year a little bit softer from an occupancy perspective last year. We had a fair bit of standing inventory as we closed out the fourth quarter and entered the first. That is a backdrop we would like to try to avoid. We want to start the year from a stronger occupancy position because it does give us that much more incremental pricing power as we operate in these markets. And the hope is that, that, along with a moderating supply picture subject to some of the questions around further inventory and shadow supply in the scattered site market. Those are all things that are going to, kind of, factor into where we land the plane. But we continue to be comfortable with that sort of blend for the full year.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Abramowitz with Deutsche Bank.

Peter Abramowitz

Just curious if you could give an update on what you're seeing in the private market for potential portfolio sales, particularly, I know there's been some conversation around smaller players in the market looking to exit or trim their exposure in the business, just given the legislative changes. So just curious, any changes in what you've seen there and how you're thinking about potential return hurdles as you evaluate portfolio opportunities?

Scott McLaughlin

Yes. I think to date, as we said, our primary use of proceeds year-to-date has been for share buybacks. Again, in the last quarter, after the ROAD to Housing Act got passed, I think we saw a couple of small broker transactions sort of in the market right now. And it's too soon to tell kind of where those portfolios end up in terms of valuation and pricing. I think maybe the timing of some of those portfolios might not have been great given the fact that interest rates have gone up 50 basis points since they launched. But again, we're monitoring the market, but I don't really have any guidance to see where we're seeing portfolios trade and it's kind of early.

I think the only transaction I would mention is that as you saw, we disclosed in the quarter, we did close on a small portfolio of about $80 million into a joint venture with one of our joint venture partners. On that particular transaction, this is something that we had looked at earlier in the year and then put it on pause during ROAD to Housing and then sort of revived after the bill got passed. And I think that was a very attractive portfolio. And I can tell you on that particular portfolio, pricing was north of a 6 cap into the joint venture. And so the returns to us in terms of our share of equity, including our share of property management and asset management fees is substantially above that 6%, and I think we were pleased with that, and our partner was pleased with that transaction. But other than that, I think some of these other portfolios, we'll kind of have to see where they shake out.

Operator

Your next question comes from Michael Gorman with U.S. Bank.

Unknown Analyst

This is [Zach White] on for Michael Gorman. Building on an earlier question on transactions, I want to ask about the cost basis differential between acquisitions versus development. The average acquisition basis appears to be below that of the development pipeline and though the sample size is small, we've seen this happen across recent quarters. Does this spread potentially signal that the acquisition channel is starting to make more sense again? Also, how should we be thinking about incremental CapEx required on those homes relative to that initial basis?

Dallas Tanner

This is Dallas. I'll try to answer a couple of your questions. So first and foremost, some of the legacy deliveries are coming in off of commitments we had made years prior. And so that cap rate, I don't want to call it artificially low, but it was just underwritten in an environment that was far different than the one today. Scott just talked about it. I think for us to do something beyond share repurchase right now, it has to be really compelling. And right now, share repurchase has been, by and large, our most compelling use of capital over the past 4 quarters. And we started to see that going into the end of last year. We were clear about it in our Investor Day. And I think our actions have followed through and sort of backed up what we talked about in November of last year.

That being said, and I'll hand it to Scott here in just a second. He can give you some color as to sort of where cap rates are on things that we're seeing in the private markets. But I do think it's really important to emphasize one thing he said earlier, which is capital is just starting to poke its eyes up after the ROAD to Housing piece of it. And the market is still trying to find itself. Like there's going to be some volatility in what a stabilized portfolio or a new acquisition will trade for, I would bet over the coming quarters, given the volatility with the tenure and how people are thinking about their own cost of capital. Scott?

Scott McLaughlin

Yes. And one other question you asked that I want to address was on the capital invested, which is, as Dallas said, these were the legacy final deliveries of some of our communities. But in terms of the upfront CapEx, these are brand-new homes we're buying in general. And the acquisitions that you saw in the quarter on balance sheet were brand-new homes. The one you saw in the joint venture was an existing SFR portfolio that had tenants in place. But on the new construction, our upfront CapEx is pretty de minimis. And other than maybe having to put in a fan or a fence, there's a pretty de minimis upfront capital investment. So when we buy new homes, there's really no incremental capital above the purchase price of the home itself.

Operator

Your next question is from Jesse Lederman with Zelman.

Jesse Lederman

I want to ask about expenses. Full year expense growth guidance seems to imply several of the nontax expense categories are expected to be flattish or maybe even decline year-over-year in the fourth quarter. So I would love to learn more about maybe which categories and what's driving that. And I would love some more commentary maybe from Tim or Jon on what specific line items across the model we should expect to see some of the realized achievable accretion from the Investor Day initiatives and if that's still on track?

Jonathan Olsen

That's a good question, Jesse. I'll cover the -- just sort of the P&L line items and then let Tim speak to some of the Investor Day initiatives for a moment. Look, I think as we look at the balance of the year, we are cautiously optimistic based on what we've seen with property tax bills thus far. I think we've got about 40%-ish of bills in Florida. And I would say that, that is what gave us comfort adjusting our expense growth guidance and the hope is that we will come in closer to the bottom end of that range. We have seen some volatility in some other line items.

In the third quarter, it was a pretty hot summer and the third quarter, in particular, saw cost to maintain run a little bit hot. We saw a lot of HVAC replacements and some of the other things that you experienced when the temperatures tick up and then stay up. But as we look at the balance of the full year, I feel pretty good about the midpoint. My hope is that we will continue to see moderation in some of these line items, particularly as we look to the future. Obviously, we'll talk about the property tax outlook when we get around the 2027 guidance next quarter. But I think these last few years, we've seen a pretty good amount of deflation in some of these expense line items that were a little bit more elevated for a period there, and we think that's good news for the long term.

Tim Lobner

Jesse, this is Tim. Thanks for your question on Investor Day and the efforts that we're making there on several fronts, actually. I mentioned them briefly in my prepared remarks. Let me go into a little more detail. On the modernization side, we've centralized our HOA management function. Some parts remain in the field that need to remain in the field, but we brought it under central management. On the rent collection side, we've modernized and centralized that as well. So those are 2 key areas. In fact, we didn't talk about any degree of accretion until 2028. So we're actually ahead of schedule on modernizing our operational program. Another area we talked about, and this was on the technology side, Virginia Suliman mentioned it, was our customer centricity. We launched our first version of our enhanced customer relationship management or CRM system with our leasing associates, and that has gone well.

So we are progressing as planned there. And the last area I'll touch on that I discussed at Investor Day was ancillary, our ancillary services or ancillary revenue program. We continue to build out that program. We remain on track in terms of the financials that we discussed, we're growing the Internet and media platform. We've expanded that to a larger percentage of our footprint. We've also -- since the last earnings call, we've introduced our washer and dryer program in nearly every single market. And that continues to go really well. Residents are finding that of value, and we look forward to continuing to expand that. So to summarize, I'd say our Investor Day efforts that we outlined are on track or ahead of schedule. Appreciate the question.

Operator

Your final question will come from Jason Sabshon with KBW.

Jason Sabshon

So I just wanted to ask about the new lease deceleration. So last quarter, you viewed the sequential pickup mainly as reflective of improving fundamentals rather than seasonality. So just curious what drove the deceleration that you saw this quarter and in October.

Tim Lobner

Thanks, Jason. This is Tim again. As we shared on the call, our new lease growth in Q3 was minus 0.2%. Look, that number was largely anticipated. We typically see a decline in this part of the year. There's certainly a degree of seasonality as more product comes on to the market after peak season move out. And I'd point out that we saw the same trend last year. Look, I also would like to add that we've made progress every single month year-over-year. And so every month, we've seen a higher new lease rent growth. And we're going to continue to, I'd say, optimize our leasing program even more. We've got a great sales team. We don't comment on future months, but I'd also point out that the new lease rent growth isn't really what drives our overall blended rent growth. 75% of the books renewals. That remains healthy, and we expect to see kind of the blended rent growth that Jon talked about earlier.

Operator

This completes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dallas Tanner for any closing remarks.

Dallas Tanner

I want to thank everyone for their questions today and their participation on our earnings call. We look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming conference. Thanks for being with us today.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.