KREF 2026 年第三季財報電話會議：隨著還款降低槓桿，流動性上升

重點摘要

• KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (KREF) 公布 2026 年第三季 GAAP 淨虧損為 600 萬美元，或每股虧損 0.11 美元；截至 9 月 30 日，每股帳面價值為 10.14 美元。
• 可分配虧損為 1.52 億美元，或每股 2.64 美元。扣除已實現虧損與策略審查費用後，可分配收益為 500 萬美元，或每股 0.09 美元。
• 今年累計至今的貸款還款金額達到 24 億美元，超過管理層全年 20 億美元的預期。第三季還款總額為 12 億美元，其中 2026 年的還款有超過 80% 來自 2021 年與 2022 年發行的貸款。
• 季末流動性增加至約 8.53 億美元，負債對股東權益比率從 2.6 倍降至 2.2 倍，總槓桿比率從 4.3 倍降至 3.1 倍。
• 管理層警告，較高的利率、再融資所得減少以及流動性不足的房地產市場，可能會延長資產處置時程，並導致近期增加額外的備抵撥備。
• 獨立董事會委員會的策略審查仍在進行中。在宣布審查後，股票回購速度有所放緩，因為包括回購在內的資本配置亦為該過程的一部分。

主要財務數據

業務與營運表現

KREF 繼續轉移遠離在 2021 年和 2022 年市場環境下產生的較早期貸款。這些年份發行的貸款占今年累計至今還款額的 80% 以上。該公司也在本季處置了另外三筆觀察名單貸款。

新增貸款投放總額為 1.57 億美元。投資包括由全美四處物業擔保的 A 級高齡住宅投資組合，以及位於德州的 A 級辦公大樓物業。管理層表示，由於 KREF 優先考慮資產負債表的靈活性，而非按等額金額替代還款，資金投放將保持審慎。

該公司對其剩餘的兩筆商業不動產 CLO 行使了選擇性贖回權，完成了兩筆交易的終止退場。管理層表示，大量的抵押品還款使得這些結構與其他非按市價計價的融資替代方案相比效率較低。

KREF 在本季結束時擁有約 8.53 億美元的流動性，為其歷史上的最高水準之一，高於其說明的歷史平均值（約 6 億美元）。總額包括 1.66 億美元現金、季末貸款結清後由服務機構代收的 5,300 萬美元還款，以及 6 億美元未提用的企業循環貸款額度。

管理層指引

管理層預計 2026 年第四季總槓桿比率將維持在 KREF 歷史目標區間下方。隨著公司在物業價值重置後保留流動性並評估機會，新增貸款投放的速度預計也將保持審慎。

原先預期於年底前完成的部分資產處置，目前可能會延續至 2027 年上半年。管理層表示將繼續尋求資產變現，同時力求實現回收最大化。

策略審查費用主要為財務與法律顧問費，集中在第三季末。財務長 Kendra Decious 表示，按整季計算，這些費用預計會在第四季增加。

風險與關注領域

• 潛在備抵撥備增加：管理層表示，隨著資產處置進程推進以及市場流動性和估值的變化，備抵撥備可能會上升。
• 多家庭住宅再融資風險：KREF 正密切監控 2021 年和 2022 年的多家庭住宅貸款。平均債務收益率處於 6% 的較高區間，但處於低端區間的貸款面臨更大的再融資壓力。
• 借貸成本上升：近期利率上升提高了債務還本付息成本，並減少了再融資所得，對於在估值高峰期進行融資的物業尤為如此。
• 處置延遲：缺乏流動性的市場與不確定的估值，使得剩餘觀察名單資產的時程與最終回收價值難以確定。
• 高利率對收益的效益有限：浮動利率債務的規模與浮動利率貸款組合相對接近，而 REO 資產不產生利息收入。
• 策略審查不確定性：董事會委員會繼續評估策略替代方案，而在該程序進行期間，管理層拒絕提供更多細節。

分析師問答焦點

管理層表示，目前的 CECL 預期信用損失準備反映了現有的市場資訊，但市場的不透明與流動性不足使 KREF 無法為每項資產處置確定最終結果。撥備水準將隨著交易進展和市場狀況改變而調整。

對於債務收益率約在 5.5% 至 6% 之間的多家庭住宅貸款，再融資結果將取決於市場層面的成長、資本化率與贊助商的流動性。管理層指出，高成長市場的債務收益率所代表的意義，可能與仍在消化新供給的市場中類似收益率有所不同。

當持有並穩定物業資產有助於提高回收率時，KREF 可能會取得精選多家庭住宅物業的所有權。然而，管理層目前並未看到大規模多家庭住宅資產需要採取這種做法的情形。

關於一筆波士頓生命科學貸款，在價值發生變化後，KREF 已將該資產讓與回無追索權融資貸方。該公司已對其持有的貸款部分認列虧損，且該資產現已自投資組合中除列。

管理層確認，儘管槓桿率較低且流動性充裕，KREF 仍積極參與放款市場。管理層指出，季末大量還款、先前降低槓桿的目標以及保持靈活性的價值，是貸款投放節奏維持審慎的原因。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Switala. Please go ahead.

Jack Switala

Thanks, operator, and welcome to the KKR Real Estate Finance Trust earnings call for the third quarter of 2026. As the operator mentioned, this is Jack Switala. This morning, I am joined on the call by our CEO, Matt Salem; our President and COO, Patrick Mattson; and our CFO, Kendra Decious.

I would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings release and in the supplementary presentation, both of which are available on the investor relations portion of our website. This call will also contain certain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to our most recently filed 10-Q for cautionary factors related to these statements.

Before I turn the call over to Matt, I will go through our results. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported GAAP net loss of $6 million, or negative $0.11 per share. Book value as of September 30th was $10.14 per share. We reported a distributable loss of $152 million, or negative $2.64 per share. Distributable earnings before realized losses and strategic review expenses were $5 million, or $0.09 per share. Lastly, we paid a $0.10 cash dividend with respect to the third quarter.

With that, I now like to turn the call over to Matt.

Matthew Salem

Thanks, Jack. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin with a brief update on the strategic review process. As we announced in July, KREF's Board established a strategic review committee composed solely of independent directors to evaluate potential strategic alternatives. Since that announcement, the committee has retained a financial advisor and legal counsel and continues to evaluate the company's strategic alternatives. Given the review is ongoing, we will not be providing any further commentary on the process during today's call.

Turning to the broader commercial real estate market, the recent increase in interest rates has created renewed pressure on property values, presenting both opportunities and challenges for real estate lenders. Existing borrowers will be impacted by higher debt service costs and lower refinancing proceeds, particularly for assets financed at peak valuations in 2021 and early 2022. We expect this environment to extend resolution timelines, and in some cases, result in additional credit losses. At the same time, these dynamics should drive increased demand for refinancing and recapitalization capital as borrowers work through upcoming maturities.

Importantly, underlying property fundamentals remain generally constructive across most sectors, supported by tenant demand and a meaningful slowdown in new construction activity. As we continue to reposition KREF's portfolio, we believe this environment provides an attractive opportunity to redeploy capital into new loans with compelling credit characteristics and risk-adjusted returns. Portfolio repayment activity has been particularly strong, with $2.4 billion of repayments year-to-date, surpassing our $2 billion expectation for the year. This quarter, repayments totaled $1.2 billion. This quarter's repayments nearly matched our annual repayments for each of 2024 and 2025.

Importantly, much of this activity has been concentrated in our older vintage loans, accelerating the natural rotation of the portfolio and reducing our exposure to loans originated during the 2021 and 2022 market environment. Those vintages accounted for over 80% of the repayments this year. We continue to make substantial progress executing the portfolio action plan we outlined at the beginning of the year. Our priorities have been to accelerate the resolution of watchlist and legacy office exposure, address our life science portfolio, and reposition the portfolio toward newer vintage loans with more attractive credit characteristics.

During the quarter, we resolved 3 additional watchlist loans. While the pace of resolutions has been encouraging, the timing and ultimate valuations of remaining assets is challenging. We continue to actively pursue monetization strategies for these assets, although some transactions previously anticipated to close before year-end are now likely to extend into the first half of 2027. We remain focused on advancing these resolutions while maintaining a disciplined approach to maximizing recovery. Given the more challenging liquidity and valuation environment, we could see an increase in reserves in the near term as resolution processes advance and market conditions continue to evolve.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Patrick.

W. Mattson

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. I'll begin with origination activity. During the quarter, we originated $157 million of loans, including a Class A senior housing portfolio secured by 4 properties across the U.S. and a Class A Texas office property. From a broader market perspective, conditions for new investments remained constructive. Credit spreads have been relatively stable. Financing for loans remains readily available, and liquidity across markets remains healthy. We expect our pace of originations to remain measured. Given our focus on maintaining balance sheet flexibility, we have been deliberate in deploying capital rather than seeking to replace repayments with new loans on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

Turning next to balance sheet and liquidity. The combination of significant repayment activity and our disciplined approach to capital management has meaningfully strengthened KREF's financial position throughout the year. At quarter end, liquidity increased to approximately $853 million, including $166 million of cash, $53 million of loan principal repayments held by a servicer following a repayment on the last day of the quarter, and $600 million of undrawn capacity on our corporate revolver. This represents one of the highest liquidity positions for KREF's history, well above the historical average of approximately $600 million.

Importantly, this liquidity provides us with significant flexibility as we continue to execute our portfolio strategy. We also continue to further optimize our financing structure. During the quarter, we exercised optional redemptions on our 2 remaining CRE CLOs, completing the retirement of both transactions. Given the substantial repayment activity and reduction in the underlying collateral pools, these transactions have become less efficient financing structures relative to other non-mark-to-market financing alternatives available to KREF.

Strong repayment activity during the quarter also drove a meaningful reduction in leverage, with our debt-to-equity ratio declining from 2.6x to 2.2x, and total leverage declining from 4.3x to 3.1x below our historical target range, and we expect leverage to remain below the historical range for the fourth quarter. In summary, the third quarter represented another important step in executing the priorities established at the beginning of the year. We materially reduced the watchlist, advanced the resolution of legacy exposures, exceeded our full year repayment expectations ahead of schedule, and further strengthened our liquidity position.

With that, we are happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Tom Catherwood with BTIG.

分析師問答

William Catherwood

Matt, I want to go back to something you said in your prepared remarks about that you could see or we could see more reserves in the near term as the resolution process advances. So the question that pops in my head is what is holding you back from getting ahead of that and taking worst-case scenario type marks right now? Is it that you don't have the market comps because transactions are slow, or is it something else that is holding you up from kind of getting ahead of that and kind of creating a worst-case baseline?

Matthew Salem

Tom, thanks for the question. I think if you think about what is on kind of the watchlist now and the kind of processes we are in, a lot of that is just a function of a little bit of opaqueness, and some of these markets are relatively illiquid. We obviously are marking even have CECL reserves appropriate for what we are seeing in the market today. But as we have seen over time, number one, markets can change, and number two, just given how the liquidity in some of these markets, we do not know exactly where these processes can end up. As we kind of continue to work through those, we will obviously adjust it in real time for what we are seeing. But just understanding kind of where the overall market is today, we wanted to obviously highlight that as we continue to work through the resolutions here.

William Catherwood

You mentioned resolutions on the watchlist. I assume, though, this applies to kind of the remaining legacy loans. Obviously, that amount came down in 3Q with the repayments, but are you expecting more modifications? Are you expecting more things that you think could have reserves or more migrations out of that legacy, but 3-rated or better portfolio?

Matthew Salem

I think everybody, including ourselves, is looking at their portfolios in a new light now, clearly with adjusted values and the interest rate that we are living in today. And I think where we are seeing potential noise, I would say, is certainly on some of the multifamily. That feels like it has been the most impacted in the rate hike environment in those vintages we called out on the call in terms of the 2021 and 2022 vintages. So that is probably the area we are watching closely.

We have got a lot of repayments and a lot of those loans, like we said, this was a huge repayment quarter for us, equaling almost all of last year and the year before. 80% of that, as we highlighted, was in those vintages. So we are seeing real velocity there. But values are down a little bit and some of those loans are close to the line, and so we will have to continue to monitor those as they come up for refinance.

William Catherwood

Just quick follow-up on that one, Matt. Just do you have a sense of -- for those legacy multifamily loans you mentioned, do you have a sense of where those debt yields sit right now?

Matthew Salem

Obviously, there's a huge range. I think on average, we're well into the 6s. But it's the stuff at the lower end of that range that is going to be the most acute and have the most problems, obviously, refinancing. So those are the ones we're really focused on. But we'll continue to see how the market evolves from a value perspective. I think it's changing, I'd say, on a day-to-day basis as the market resets expectations around not only cap rates, but just growth profile as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jade Rahmani with KBW.

Jade Rahmani

Can you give any color on the Boston Life Science resolution? I didn't see clearly in the 10-Q what happened to that loan. Was that sold or acquired? Any color would be helpful.

W. Mattson

Jade. It's Patrick. Happy to take that. So on that loan, we had financing on that. That was non-recourse financing. As values have changed on that asset, we assigned that loan back to the lender. What you see reflected in this quarter was the loss on our portion of that loan, and it is obviously removed from the portfolio at this point.

Jade Rahmani

Okay. That is helpful. On the multifamily portfolio, can you comment as to what percentage is pre-2023 vintage and what the in-place debt yields are on that? Also, can you further comment if there is a property that has, say, a 5.5% to 6% debt yield, would that require KREF to absorb a loss because that would imply close to 100% LTV, so not necessarily a loss, but it depends on the friction points and what happens in such a situation?

Matthew Salem

Yes, I do not have the exact percentage of the 2021 and 2022 multifamily in front of me, so we can follow up on that. On the second part of your question, the 5.5% to 6% debt yield area, I think certainly we would be watching those very closely. It really comes down to 2 things. It is number one, what is the embedded growth in the market? Because the 5.5% in New York City or San Francisco or some of these markets that are experiencing real growth is very different than some of the Sun Belt markets that are still absorbing supply, as you well know. So there is going to be a range of cap rates depending on the market.

The second thing is really around sponsor. Number one, what is their liquidity level? What else is in their portfolio that they're dealing with, and what's their willingness to continue to play forward and try to continue to grow cash flows over time to enhance their outcomes on their equity? These are all in play, and we've seen it across the board. I certainly think having a portfolio outside of KREF as well, that we're seeing marginally more capitulation in the multifamily sector from borrowers, just given this latest rate hike. That speaks a little bit to the second point. I'm making that I think you are seeing a little bit more velocity, whereas before we were getting a lot more pay downs and playing it forward. I think there's been slightly more capitulation in the market today around some of that. But that corridor is certainly the ones that we're focused on in terms of their ability to refinance.

Jade Rahmani

A follow-up would be with multifamily as a more liquid asset class and fundamentals potentially nearing a trough. Could you devise an alternative strategy to fund REO with leverage and hold some of these assets more so than you've done with, say, office? Does that make any sense, or do you think the better outcome is to just work these out, share in some of the value reduction, and take hits to book value?

Matthew Salem

Well, I think similar to every time we have an issue in the portfolio, we're going to look at all the options available to us and how do we optimize the outcome and maximize recovery for the balance sheet. You think about what we did in Raleigh, North Carolina, on that multifamily deal. We felt like we could go in and stabilize cash flow and operations there and then sell it into kind of a better environment. I think we're proving that out on the operations side for sure, and we feel very good about the occupancy there and where we are on a cash flow basis.

Obviously, they carry a lot easier, to your point, I think is what you might be suggesting, than some of the life science we have, for instance, where you just don't have the tenants there, and so there's a kind of a net cost on an ongoing basis. That certainly will factor into the analysis. Hard to predict the future. Obviously, the market's very dynamic right now. But when I look at our portfolio, I don't see a wave of opportunities to do that, if that's part of the question. I think we could have isolated situations where the loan is closed, and we ultimately have to take some reserves on it. But, I don't think we're looking at it like, wow, this is going to be a big portfolio of multi that we have to make decisions on. That may help you think through it a little bit.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rick Shane with J.P. Morgan.

Richard Shane

Look, you guys, I know you won't comment per se on the strategic review process, but at the same time, you have 2 other things going on. One is resolution of the existing portfolio. And then the real question is, how are you sort of approaching the market in terms of additional investment? You guys did originate loans this quarter, but leverage is now below target ratio. You are sitting on a lot of liquidity. Do you see yourselves as active participants in the market? And more importantly, from sort of a management perspective, how do you sort of motivate employees in the context of this sort of potential uncertainty?

Matthew Salem

Right. Thank you for the question. I guess just to be direct, 100% we are active participants in the market. We originated 2 loans this quarter. I will come back to that piece of the question here in a second. Let me answer your final piece of the question. Keep in mind that the team that invests on behalf of KREF invests for other pools of capital within KKR as well. This is a smaller piece of our overall business, and that business is continuing to grow, and we have lots of different types of capital that we invest there. We invest bank capital, we invest insurance capital, we invest debt fund capital. So there is lots of capital, and we are actively originating loans across our $43 billion of AUM within real estate credit at KKR.

There is lots going on, and so the motivation question you had, I don't think is particularly relevant for our team and our situation. When we just think about how we are positioned in the market, I think you are right to kind of put a few things in there. When I look at this quarter, in particular, let us just understand, last quarter, we were above our target leverage ratio, and we had talked about wanting to bring that down. So we were able to accomplish that.

The second thing which I highlighted earlier was we got a ton of repayments this quarter. You never quite know, especially in a market where the Fed starts hiking again, like, okay, what is going to come through? What is not? Do things get extended? Some of those were actually pretty back-ended in the quarter. So you have this moment in time where certainly that contributed to it, where there is a lot coming through in the quarter, a lot coming through towards the end. We weren't leaning in to originations either because we were trying to bring down leverage and trying to understand kind of where we were in the quarter.

So some of it is just the complexity around that. I would say the last piece of it is creating some more flexibility right now and optionality for ourselves, I do not think is a bad thing either, where we start to look at what is going on in the market. Values are resetting. Perhaps the loan you are going to make tomorrow is better than the loan you could have made 60 days ago. I think there is also a reason to just be prudent as we kind of think about what is going on in the market today. None of those factors are the single determinant of where we snap the line at the end of September, but they are all kind of factoring into it, of how we kind of think about the go forward here. But certainly closed loans in the quarter and are active.

Richard Shane

Look, it's a very fair point, and you linked up something that I didn't that I heard but didn't link up, which is how heavy the repayments were at the very end of the quarter and given the uncertainty that the third quarter events created, the macro events created, and the potential sort of extension of timelines on anything in the meeting of the minds makes sense to sort of be careful until all of that stuff closes. I don't know if you covered this, I apologize, but it looks like the cadence of the buyback really was just in July and then slowed down. Is that related to the strategic review or how should we think about that going forward, particularly given the leverage, et cetera?

Matthew Salem

Yes, I think you're right to call that out. I think we mentioned this on the last call. The buybacks is all. Think about that. Strategic review is one of the key things they're looking at, of course, is capital allocation. And so, share buybacks will be part of that, and that really effectively impacted, if you will, our participation in that investing piece of the business after that announcement.

Richard Shane

Got it. Okay. Actually, when I really think about that from a legal perspective, it totally makes sense. Thank you for pointing it out and answering that question timely, but totally. At the end of the day, it doesn't really make sense to be buying back stock when you're doing that, because you've got information. Anyway, I get it.

Matthew Salem

Thank you. Appreciate you joining.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Chris Muller with Citizens.

Christopher Muller

Looking at your slide deck, the interest sensitivity slide stands out. Can you just talk through why higher rates are not a more meaningful benefit to the bottom line?

W. Mattson

Chris, it's Patrick. I'll take that. Yes, it's a good sort of highlight. We would expect normally, right, that you would get some benefit from higher rates. A couple of factors here. One, we're at the point where we've got some floors that are effectively pretty close. As we think about going up a little bit higher, it's not changing that much. We're not getting the additional benefit on the asset side.

The other factor is just that if you look at our debt outstanding that's subject to a floating rate and look at our loan assets outstanding that are subject to a floating rate, they're fairly close to each other. We're not obviously levered one to one. We've got a lot of value tied up, for example, in the REO assets. But the REO assets aren't producing income, right? So they're not subject to the benefit of higher interest rates. So it's really the fact that the secured debt outstanding, the term loan B outstanding is fairly close to the loan portfolio size.

Christopher Muller

Got it. That makes sense. And then, looking at the strategic review expenses, I heard you guys mention the legal counsel and financial advisor. Is that all that is going into that bucket there? Is that an ongoing expense or was it more one-time in nature?

Kendra Decious

Chris, it's Kendra. Thanks for the question. So I would say that the strategic review costs predominantly include financial advisors and legal advisors. I would point out that it is ongoing, as you asked, and also consider that the timing of when the strategic review committee was formed. So the expenses were back ended in Q3. So I think you can assume from that in Q4, those expenses will grow on a full quarter basis.

Operator

Your next question comes from Gabe Poggi with Raymond James.

Gabriel Poggi

Matt, Patrick, I've got kind of a top of the house question. What is KKR doing holistically? I mean, Matt, you alluded to all the different buckets of capital that the team works on, right? What's KKR looking at across commercial real estate in this environment? What activity do they find is interesting? I noticed the life science JV with Alexandria that was publicly announced a few days ago. But any color you can provide as to kind of the opportunity to KKR or that you're seeing and doing in other pockets of capital away from the REIT, I think would be helpful.

Matthew Salem

Thank you for the question, Gabe. I guess you could break it down between equity and debt. I'd say on the debt side, we remain active with all of our pools of capital and think it's an attractive lending environment for all the reasons we talk about on this call and for our peers talk about ability to lend on reset basis with supply coming down in a higher interest rate environment. I think it's a good credit story. We're seeing that demand from our insurance company. But also on the private debt fund side, I think there's a lot of capital kind of getting allocated to the sector. I'd say there we're continuing to invest in what you would expect in terms of on-theme assets from a property type, so nothing too new there.

You saw in this quarter we did originate a loan within KREF on senior housing. So that's an area we certainly have a lot of experience and positive experience on the equity side of our business, and have been involved on the debt side. But in terms of new things we're looking at, that's probably one area that we're slightly more active. Otherwise, it continues to be heavily focused on multifamily and industrial lending for the most part. I think when you put the equity hat on, the market's probably opening up a little bit for us in terms of investing kind of the value add opportunistic funds. It's early days, but I think there's going to be a lot of investors, ourselves included, spending time in the multifamily segment of the market.

I think Jade was pointing out the fact that supply's coming down, yet now you have another kind of pressure point on value, and this could be an interesting entry point. Not to call the bottom, but certainly as you think about investing capital, it looks like an attractive place to go, and a lot of capital structures are coming due, like we talked about in our portfolio and in our peers. I think that's an area in particular we'll spend more time on.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jack Switala for any closing remarks.

Jack Switala

Great. Thanks, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining today. Please reach out to me or the team here if you have any questions. Take care.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.