Central Bancompany (CBC) 2026年第三季法說會：淨息差達4.51%

重點摘要

• Central Bancompany 公布 2026 年第三季淨利為 1.162 億美元，即每股盈餘 0.48 美元，資產報酬率為 2.27%。
• 淨利息收入年增 2,000 萬美元至 2.189 億美元。完全應稅相當額 (FTE) 淨利息收益率上升 12 個基點至 4.51%。
• 無息存款年增 6%。管理層表示，在以支票帳戶為主的客戶獲取策略支持下，中個位數的年成長率是合理的長期預期。
• 信貸維持穩定，淨呆帳沖銷率為 12 個基點。管理層將商業不良資產的增加描述為特定借款人狀況，而非更廣泛的投資組合趨勢。
• 公司持有約 20 億美元的過剩資本，相當於每股 8.28 美元，並擁有 9,600 萬美元的剩餘股份回購授權額度。
• Central Bancompany 預計將在 2026 年第四季因終止退休金計劃而認列約 2,700 萬美元的非經常性稅前利益。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

貸款季增年率為 3%。若扣除其他消費貸款的持續下滑，成長率約為 4%。管理層表示，無論是毛額或淨額，商業貸款案源管道均維持與上一季相同的強勁水準。

消費貸款組合持續從收益率較高的間接貸款轉向住宅第一抵押貸款與房屋淨值貸款。商業貸款被描述為營運正常，儘管部分市場的借款人活動有所放緩。

支付量年增。消費支付成長主要由簽帳金融卡及零售客戶群擴張所帶動。由於費用負擔過高，該公司退出了包括禮券在內的數項小型業務，同時繼續投資商業支付服務。

存款成長仍集中於支票帳戶，而非高收益儲蓄產品。消費存款佔存款總額的 50% 以上，其中無息餘額佔比相當顯著。

公眾基金存款通常會在 9 月達到季節性低點，並因密蘇里州徵收房產稅而在第四季即期上升。管理層指出，公眾基金平均餘額在第三季至第四季之間大致持平，按平均餘額計算，第一季通常是最高的一季。

管理層展望

管理層認為淨利息收益率與淨利息收入仍有進一步上升的潛力。約有 7 億美元的固定利率貸款預定於第四季重新定價，管理層估計目前的再投資殖利率較到期利率高出約 100 個基點。

公司的內部模型顯示 2027 年及 2028 年將有額外的淨利息收入機會，但該分析假設資產負債表保持靜態，並採用 9 月 30 日的利率曲線。管理層強調，未來的利率路徑及存款成本 Beta 值仍具不確定性。

針對貸款成長，管理層表示中個位數的擴張是適當的長期預期。當競爭加劇或定價不夠理性時，目前的成長率可能會低於該水準。

公司預計在 2026 年第四季獲得約 2,700 萬美元的非經常性稅前退休金終止利益。目前尚未決定如何運用該筆收益。

風險與關注焦點

• 不確定的利率路徑為存款成本和淨利息收益率帶來變數。管理層引述過往升息環境中的經驗，將存款 Beta 值設在 20% 出頭至 20% 中段作為一般預期。
• 較高的利率導致某些市場的商業借款人活動與意願有所放緩，不過其他地方的強勁表現使整體案源管道保持穩定。
• 本季房貸收入有所下降，但按直接成本計算，房貸發放業務仍保持盈利。
• 商業不良資產小幅增加。管理層將此變化歸因於個案狀況，並表示尚未發現投資組合或資產類別出現廣泛惡化。
• Central Bancompany 仍保持輕微的資產敏感性。公司在季末新增了現金流量對沖，並正考慮採取額外措施以降低對利率波動的風險敞口。
• 短期內股份回購可能維持在有限水準，因為管理層需在股票估值認知、交易流動性、剩餘授權額度以及潛在併購 (M&A) 機會之間取得平衡。

分析師問答集錦

管理層表示，高利率維持更長時間 (higher-for-longer) 有助於支持公司的資產敏感型模型，但目前正採取步驟來緩和該敏感度。除了新設的現金流量對沖外，證券投資組合也可用於管理利率風險敞口並掌握重新定價的機會。

在資本配置方面，管理層表示，股價在約 34 至 35 美元時仍具價值，但不如交易價在 24 至 25 美元時具吸引力。因此庫藏股回購將保持伺機而動，部分原因也是避免降低股票的流動性。併購策略保持不變，本次未提供交易的最新進展。

在信貸方面，管理層計劃使備抵覆蓋率保持大致穩定，讓貸款成長推動備抵呆帳絕對餘額適度增加。從信貸角度來看，進行中的消費貸款組合轉變被認為是稍具利多的。

公司確認浮動利率貸款總額約為 25 億美元，不過管理層在法說會中未提供連結主要利率 (Prime) 與 SOFR 的貸款比例。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Central Bancompany Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call .[Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, John Ross, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

John Ross

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Central Bancompany, Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me in the room today is our Chief Financial Officer, James Ciroli, Chief Customer Officer, Dan West; and Chief Credit Officer, Eric Hallgren. As a reminder, I'd like to point out that the discussion today is subject to the same forward-looking considerations outlined on Page 4 of our press release.

I'd like to share 2 notable Central Bancompany promotions before we dive into the third quarter financials. Matt Adams, who joined us 19 years ago and most recently served as our senior lender in Oklahoma, has been elevated to CEO of that region. Brandy Bryant, who has been with us for over 28 years and has most recently served as a market CEO and has been promoted to the newly created position of Head of Consumer and Small Business Lending, a strategic focus for our company. Congratulations, Brandy on your well-deserved new roles.

Now moving on to financials. We are pleased to report net income of $116.2 million in the third quarter or $0.48 per share, which resulted in a return on assets of 2.27%. The Net interest income of $218.9 million this quarter, up $20 million from the prior year quarter. We posted 4.51% FTE net interest margin, up 12 basis points from the prior year quarter. The cost of deposits was down 8 basis points from the same quarter last year reflecting the rate cuts we had late last year.

While we have been disciplined in our deposit pricing and expect that to continue, the unusual turbulence of the current rate environment introduces uncertainty and time will tell as to our deposit cost beta from here. Irrespective, we remain well positioned for higher interest rates. Our core fee income grew 4% year-over-year or 8% excluding mortgage.

While mortgage revenues have declined this quarter, we are pleased that originations remain profitable on a direct cost basis. Turning to expenses. Our FTE efficiency ratio for the quarter was 45.4%. Overall, expenses remain well controlled. As we have disclosed previously, we are in the process of terminating our pension plan, which was frozen in 2018 -- we have now contracted the associated termination payments and expect to record a nonrecurring pretax gain of approximately $27 million in the fourth quarter.

As for credit, it again remained benign with just 12 basis points of net charge-offs in the quarter. Lastly, our capital levels remain well above target with $2 billion of excess capital or $8.28 per share. We repurchased a minimal amount of shares during the quarter and still have $96 million of repurchase authority remaining.

We see value in the shares at current levels as outlined in our deck, but we will continue to be opportunistic with our repurchases in light of our limited authorization. With that, I'd like to open the line for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley.

分析師問答

Ryan Kenny

So maybe just starting out on the payments business, you highlighted the increase in transaction activity. Can you talk a bit about what you're doing to drive growth in payments and also to much degree does the payments business bring in low-cost deposits.

James Ciroli

Thanks, Ryan. This is Jim. I didn't sure I got all of that. But -- so yes, happy to try to be more transparent on the payment business, payment volumes are up nicely on a year-over-year basis. And we're deeply committed to that business as well. Let me turn it over to Dan West use for what are some of the things that we're doing in that area to maximize our payments.

Daniel Westhues

Yes. On the consumer side, we run a pretty modest credit card portfolio, but then our debit card portfolio is really what's driving the payments volume -- that goes directly with the growth in our retail base. So as we grow the retail base, that payment area grows. -- we did exit a few small areas, gift cards a few things like that, which are kind of in those numbers, but the expenses that we're on with that were too high. So on the commercial side, we're continually very active in trying to grow that business within our own existing base.

James Ciroli

And continue to make investments there.

Ryan Kenny

And the noninterest-bearing deposits in the quarter were up nicely 6% year-over-year. And can you impact what's driving the growth that you're seeing in noninterest-bearing balances? And how is alien do you think that growth can be given higher rates?

John Ross

The -- great question, Ryan. So the 6% is kind of consistent with our long-term trend. And I would remind you and I know you're new to the story, so maybe this isn't as much of a reminder. We really focus on our customer acquisition on checking accounts and not high-yield savings. We're not trying to buy money. We're trying to bring new customers in, on the checking account side. And so it's -- I don't think it's a surprise to see the 6% number for us. I think some number in the mid-single digits range is where we should expect to be year in and year out across a pretty long horizon. Dan, anything to add there?

Daniel Westhues

No, exactly what you said. And then year-over-year, even our think consumer deposit base, it's over 50% of the base and the noninterest-bearing is a big portion of that. That's what we focus on. And year-over-year, it continues to grow even with seasonality.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher McGratty with KBW.

Christopher McGratty

Great. Jim, maybe a question for you on the debate of margin in NII dollars. I guess, who you stand its modest balance sheet growth, but the NIM continues to go up obviously, you're well positioned for this environment. Maybe you could unpack the outlook for margins and balance sheet growth.

John Ross

Yes, I appreciate the question. And I think it's 1 of the key questions for us. So it's a great it's a great thing to focus on because we put on Page 5 within the slide deck, a couple of things we thought would be helpful. So in the upper right-hand part of that slide, we talk about what our fixed loan repricing looks like on a go-forward basis. So fourth quarter, we've got $700 million rolling off -- and next year, we got $2.2 million of loans rolling off. Those are all rolling off at pretty much a 6 flat rate.

And when we're investing, we're improving I think we're improving yields around 100 basis points as we're reinvesting that fixed rate book into where we currently stand. Now there's a couple of other things going on in there, largely you'll notice that we're continuing to see declines in our other consumer portfolio. That's largely indirect lending. Those are a little bit higher yielding, maybe a little bit more credit loss content. And those are really being replaced with residential first mortgages and some -- and we saw nice HELOC growth in our loans this past quarter.

So there's a little bit of a mix shift going on in the consumer side from a from a commercial side, it's business as usual. So we continue to think there's a nice opportunity to expand margin coming from the left-hand side of the balance sheet. When you look at the right-hand side of the balance sheet, the time will tell, and we're not really sure what rates were declining last year.

Now they're increasing. So we're not really sure what the forward look on rates is going to be. We've always done an incredible job here at Central of managing our deposit costs because we compete on service and not on price. But even in rising rate environments, we've seen kind of a mid- to low 20s type of a beta, and that's kind of our expectation. So -- and then finally, I'd throw securities in there where 1 quarter ago, we'd say there wasn't a bunch of repricing opportunity within our securities book. There is a significant repricing opportunity within our securities book, and we added those to Page 5 as well. And then on the bottom right corner on Page 5.

We kind of show -- we give you an analysis that we've given you before, which is a static portfolio. So we're not taking any credit for loan growth or deposit growth in that static curve and full disclosure, it's a September 30 curve where rates were a little bit higher than where they are today. But you can see where we expect to have net interest income in '27 and '28 relative to our projections -- for 2026 in those 2 numbers.

So you can see what our own internal models are telling us, again, with those 2 assumptions, static curve, static balance sheet. And I think the conclusions are correct. There's additional opportunity for that net interest margin and net interest income to grind higher.

Unknown Executive

I'd just say 1 quick thing because Chris put out a report that basically says the NIM and or as a return on handle common equity. And I think Jim was saying, well, we're going to have NIM that's higher. We're going to have a balance sheet that continues to grow on our house historically. And so those will both do well. But the only thing I would add to your report is -- we don't look at -- we look at return on tangible common equity obviously.

But what we look at internally is net income less a capital charge for the capital required to generate that income to put that loan growth in context of the capital that it consumes to do it. We call that shareholder value added and those components that Jim referred to -- will trend higher based on our strategy.

Christopher McGratty

Great. And as the follow-up, you talked about the gain from the pension termination. I think in the past, Jim, you've taken some proceeds and done some modest retool into the book, the balance sheet. I guess, a, is that another option -- and then b, maybe more broadly for the team, any change in M&A conversations. What's available?

Unknown Executive

I'll take on the first part of that, and I'll pass it over to James for the second part of that. So we just locked in as James mentioned in his prepared remarks, we just locked this in last week. So we've not made any decisions as to whether there's something that's the right thing to do, that's prudent from a business strategy to do that would spend that in any way. I'd say we're probably less focused on that aspect than just looking at what's the right thing to do for our business and what's going to set us up for success in the future. We've not made any decisions.

James Ciroli

Higher rates create opportunity as far as to look at Yes. On the M&A side, I would just say you followed the story closely. So I think you and the community is broadly familiar with the strategy we're prosecuting against. We continue to prosecute against it, and we have no updates for you at this time.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Matthew Olney with Stephens.

Matt Olney

Just want to go back to the loan growth discussion, and I'm curious what you're hearing from your commercial borrowers today with respect to higher rates and investors are just concerned that higher rates are going to ultimately lead to some demand destruction at some point. So I'd be curious what you're hearing with conversations with some of your commercial borrowers and higher rates and future demand.

John Ross

Yes. So I appreciate the question, Matt. As you know, and you can see in our numbers, we grew loans at a 3% linked quarter annualized basis. If you back out the other consumer decline, which has been declining for several quarters, that actual linked quarter annualized growth is about 4%, which I'd say normally over a long period of time, kind of mid-single digits growth for our loan portfolio is, I think, the right expectation. So 4% seems right to us when environments are a little bit more competitive and a little bit more irrational at times.

I think we'll underperform averages, and I think that 4% is consistent with that expectation. Looking at where our pipelines are. I'd say our pipeline we continue to be encouraged by our commercial loan pipeline. From a gross basis and a net basis, they're as strong as they were a quarter ago. So I think we continue to be optimistic in terms of being able to grow from here in the right way.

But Eric, what else should I add to that?

Eric Hallgren

I think certainly, given kind of the rate environment and the outlook, we're seeing a little bit of moderation in certain markets in terms of just borrower activity and appetite as they look forward into the next year. But I think the beauty of our franchise is diversity in the makeup of those markets because where certain communities may soften a bit, we're seeing really strong activity in other markets. So to Jim's point on that basis, our pipeline looks to be at the same levels it has over the last several quarters. So we're hopeful and optimistic that, that momentum will continue as we look into the end of the year.

Matt Olney

Okay. Appreciate the color on that. And then just as a follow-up, -- you mentioned on that Slide 5, your assumptions and the static balance sheet and the impact to higher rates it feels like it's a nice place to be given kind of the market expectations now at higher rates. But I'm curious kind of moving into the future, what are some strategies that we could expect from the bank down the road if and when you guys do think about moderating your asset sensitivity? What are some strategies you guys would probably focus on

John Ross

Matt, that's a very prescient question because I would tell you that when you look at our Q, where we make the interest rate risk disclosures, and you'll see that we're still slightly asset sensitive. And it's not lost on us that this higher for longer rate environment is something that benefits our business model.

So beginning last quarter, and we're going to continue to look at this. We did put on a cash flow hedge at the very end of the quarter that's designed to moderate that asset sensitivity back a little bit. And I think that now in the rate cycle, it is probably the right time to think about are there means that we can take that are prudent and reduce our exposure a little bit to potential rate volatility.

I think Jim mentioned, it's kind of a crazy environment where a year ago, we were looking at 3 successive rate cuts. And now we're looking at a rate hike that just happened, probably another 1 happens in December and something early next year. So with this period of rate uncertainty -- and I think it's probably better if we can take some of that asset sensitivity off the table, and that's what we're going to look at. We do some of that through our securities portfolio as well. And on Page 5, we kind of dimension what we think the repricing opportunity is over time with that portfolio.

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.

Nathan Race

Just going back to the capital discussion. -- just going back to the capital discussion. Curious how you guys are thinking about maybe stepping up on buybacks until we see an acquisition announcement just how you're thinking about maybe greater buybacks going forward just to provide a more kind of consistent comprehensive total return to shareholders versus kind of just balancing the float that's out there.

Unknown Executive

That's a great question. And I appreciate you mentioning the float at the end. Look, I would say that when you think about the value of our excess capital, $8.28 of that per share, and the opportunity to earn an even higher return. We mentioned this on Slide 13 as well as what we were just talking about in the -- with Matt on the previous question about the higher for longer rate.

I don't think the benefits are yet fully reflected in our stock price from either of those. And also I'd add, when you look at our performance relative to the people that we compare ourselves to, which is a high-performing peer group. We think there is some unrecognized value that there is still value at $34, $35 a share. but it's not as great as it was at $24, $25 a share.

So we're not as aggressive with our buyback. We're also concerned about managing the value that we think continues to exist in the stock and balancing that off against the float that we have. wasn't even a year ago that we went public. So we're just always kind of a little bit tepid a little bit reluctant to go out there aggressively and buy that back.

And we only have $100 million authorization -- and so we want to make sure that we pick our spots and pick them in the right places, if we are going to take action on that on spending that authorization.

Unknown Executive

Once we do a deal, get more flow out there, the dynamic will change, but it will also always be balanced against the M&A opportunity set going forward. So it's limited in the near term. And I think we've gotten favorable feedback on that from investors because we don't want to kill the liquidity in the stock that exists by what we're doing. So that's kind of how we gave to going for now.

Nathan Race

Yes. That's really helpful. Just 1 kind of housekeeping question as a follow-up. Jim, I think floating rate loans are about $2.5 billion. And can you just remind me of the mix between prime and [indiscernible] within that $2.5 billion? Just trying to get a sense for how much of the move up in SOFR ahead of the Fed rate hike at September benefit loan yield as we kind of think about forward rate expectations on the short curve.

Unknown Executive

I'm going to have to get back to you, Nate. That's -- I understand the question. It's a very good question, but I'm going to have to get back to you on the mix.

Nathan Race

Okay. But the $2.5 billion is still kind of the right number on the floating rate side of things?

Unknown Executive

Yes.

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Brandon Berman with Bank of America.

Brandon Berman

I wanted to start on the deposit side. And I was wondering if you could sort of help unpack, I believe there's some seasonality with the public deposit portfolio. I believe it drops in September and then grows in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about the movers on the deposit cost side, understanding that deposit beta uncertainty still exists, but understanding what the potential impact could be from public deposit growth in the fourth quarter.

Unknown Executive

Yes. So you're absolutely right. I'd say it troughs in September. Let's unpack that a little bit by going back to what really drives that seasonality, and it's really in the state of Missouri, and we have a very special relationship with the state of Missouri. But in the state of Missouri, tax payments or do property tax payments or do in December. So while it troughs in September, what we'll see on an average basis, comparing third quarter -- or fourth quarter typically in a year, is that average is flattish. But on a spot basis, that will go up. And our highest quarter from an average basis is going to be the first quarter which is kind of interesting actually because the -- on a spot basis, the deposits kind of move around the different pockets within the state but they stay kind of within the state pockets.

And then from March 31 throughout the rest of the year until collections resume again at the end of the year, the various places where the state collects the money and then distribute that out to its agencies in the agency spending down throughout the year.

So that's the seasonality you see we've put something together on Page 9 of the slide deck that helps dimension the cost of those, and you can see why we're focused on those because as we look at our total deposit costs period over period on period, the change in costs is often driven by just what's going on in this portfolio where our cost of deposits is not extremely high, but higher than where they are in the consumer and commercial books. So hopefully, I've to mention what we expect in terms of the seasonality of those of those changes.

I would also point out going from Q2 to Q3-- not only do we see some seasonal declines in the public fund deposits because the trough in September, but we typically see a small seasonal decline in our consumer deposits as well. Got you.

Brandon Berman

And then as a follow-up and just more of a housekeeping item. The increase in commercial nonperformers this quarter, were those still primarily related to the isolated borrower or borrowers you discussed last quarter? Or was there something else that led to the increase?

Unknown Executive

Yes. I'll turn that over to Eric. But look, I would point out that when I see nonperforming assets going up, albeit small numbers and delinquencies going down, delinquent commercial delinquencies have been such low numbers for the past couple of quarters that I really -- I think that's kind of the law of small numbers. We're seeing increases that are not significant, but numbers that are bouncing around the bottom. But Eric, how would you answer that?

Eric Hallgren

Yes, Brandon. So the increase that we saw is really kind of situational and specific to certain commercial situations -- we haven't really observed a thematic shift in the portfolio or any specific asset class that gives us a real concern. And despite a fairly modest adjustment and level relative to our balance sheet on nonperforming assets, excuse me, we remain pretty convicted in kind of the positioning of the portfolio as well as the indication of credit risk that we see going forward and don't see anything shifting or dramatically changing in the near term.

Unknown Executive

Last thing I'd add to that is that we're trying to keep the allowance coverage ratio to the loan portfolio stable and let loan growth drive an increase -- a small increase in the absolute level of the allowance, which you're seeing, even though, as I elaborated earlier, we are having a small positive from a credit perspective, mix shift on the consumer side.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions. So with that, I'll hand the call back over to President and CEO, John Ross, for any closing remarks.

John Ross

Thank you, operator. We were pleased to deliver another short quarter and appreciate everyone taking the time to join us this morning. Thanks again, and we will talk to you in the new year.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This does conclude today's program, and you may now disconnect. RECONNECT