蓋蒂房產 (GTY) 2026年第三季法說會：投資額突破5億美元，收窄AFFO財測指引

Getty Realty (NYSE: GTY) 在創紀錄的投資活動與年化基礎租金成長的推動下，公布 2026 年第三季每股 AFFO（調整後營運資金）有所增加。隨著利率與更廣泛的融資成本上升，管理層收窄了全年 AFFO 指引，同時強調嚴格的資本配置。

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季每股 AFFO 為 0.64 美元，年增 3.2%。前九個月每股 AFFO 達 1.89 美元，成長 5.0%。
• Getty 本季投資金額達 2.974 億美元，初始現金收益率為 6.9%。計入季後交易後，今年以來投資總額達 5.023 億美元，初始現金收益率為 7.2%。
• 金額達 2.61 億美元的 Refuel 售後租回交易，新增了 41 間位於美國東南部與德州成長型市場的現代化便利商店。
• 年化基礎租金年增 21%。投資組合出租率為 99.7%，過去 12 個月的租金覆蓋率保持在 2.5 倍的穩定水準。
• 管理層將 2026 年每股 AFFO 指引由 2.52 美元至 2.54 美元收窄至 2.53 美元至 2.54 美元。
• 季度股息成長 3.1% 至每股 0.50 美元，代表 Getty 連續第 13 年實現股息成長。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

Getty 季末的租賃投資組合包含 1,263 處物業及兩處進行中的再開發項目。若扣除再開發物業，出租率為 99.7%，加權平均租期延長至 10.8 年。投資組合涵蓋 46 個州及華盛頓哥倫比亞特區，其中 58% 的年化基礎租金來自前 50 大都會統計區（MSA），74% 來自前 100 大都會統計區。

Refuel 交易是本期內最大的投資案。Getty 透過直接洽談的非公開市場售後租回方式，以 2.61 億美元收購了 41 處地點。這些門市平均面積近 5,000 平方英尺，占地 2.5 英畝，分佈於羅利-德罕 (Raleigh-Durham)、查爾斯頓 (Charleston)、莫特爾比奇 (Myrtle Beach)、奧斯汀 (Austin)、聖安東尼奧 (San Antonio) 及大傑克遜 (Greater Jackson) 等市場。

若不計 Refuel，Getty 以 2,520 萬美元收購了 12 處物業，初始現金收益率為 8%。其中包括一家旅行服務中心、多家汽車服務中心及得來速速食餐廳，且均為與既有租戶的再次合作交易。

季後，該公司另投資 4,630 萬美元，初始現金收益率為 7.6%。其 7,500 萬美元的已簽約儲備項目主要由汽車服務中心與得來速速食餐廳組成，其中約有一半屬於開發融資交易。管理層表示，該儲備項目的初始現金收益率約為 8%。

投資組合的基本面維持穩定。過去 12 個月的租金覆蓋率為 2.5 倍，便利商店與洗車場的覆蓋率水準相似。年化基礎租金中約有 77% 要求提供單店層級的財務報告，另有 17.5% 來自公開申報財務數據的租戶。

Getty 在第三季出售了 8 處物業，總收益為 1,160 萬美元；今年以來共出售 14 處物業，總收益為 2,350 萬美元。管理層正在尋求額外處分資產，以部分資助 Refuel 交易及其他潛在投資。

管理層指引

Getty 將 2026 全年每股 AFFO 指引從 2.52 美元至 2.54 美元收窄至 2.53 美元至 2.54 美元。該展望反映了目前既有投資組合的運作率，以及費用與信用損失的潛在變數。該指引不包含未來的投資與資本市場活動。

管理層繼續預期全年一般與行政費用（G&A）成長率將低於 2%，且 G&A 比率將保持在 9% 以下。

公司估計扣除調升後的股息後，年度自由現金流約為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。結合未交割遠期股權融資預計帶來的約 5,200 萬美元收益，管理層使用四捨五入的假設估算，約有 1.65 億美元的槓桿中性投資能力，相比之下已簽約儲備項目為 7,500 萬美元。

風險與關注焦點

• 管理層表示，利率與更廣泛的資本成本快速上升，正影響 Getty 目標領域的交易活動。
• 交易收益率通常會在融資成本變動後隨之調整。雖然 Getty 已成功針對部分交易重新定價，但管理層表示，如果交易對手無法就修訂後的經濟條款達成一致，交易可能會延遲或取消。
• 較高的短期利率可能增加浮動利率借款的利息費用。管理層還指出，債務交易成本存在潛在變數。
• 由於預計的資產處分收益尚未到位，Getty 在第三季籌集的股權資金超過了實際所需，對短期表現帶來些微拖累。
• 管理層正密切關注近期到期的租約、較低的租金覆蓋率以及其他租戶特定風險，不過本季並未回報已實現的信用損失。

分析師問答集錦

Refuel 經濟效益與資產品質：管理層坦承 Refuel 投資組合的初始收益率低於某些常規收購案。管理層強調了非公開市場結構、長期合作的租戶關係、現代化大坪數門市、優越的地理位置以及房東保障條款。今年早些時候籌集的資金與計劃中的資產出售，有助於維持正向的初始投資利差。

資本配置：Getty 計劃個別評估每筆交易，若無法達成要求的報酬率，將接受較低的投資規模。管理層表示，獲利成長與投資利差優先於收購數量。

資本回收：處分資產預估將成為更系統化的資金來源。潛在出售標的包括 Getty 核心便利商店與汽車策略之外的再開發物業，以及位於東北部具備替代用途價值的優質市場資產。

資產負債表靈活性：季末淨負債對 EBITDA 比率維持在 Getty 的 4.5 倍至 5.5 倍目標區間內。季後，公司取得 2 億美元的無擔保定期貸款，有效利率為 5.03%，並償還了循環貸款餘額。Getty 在 2028 年前無任何到期債務。

交易定價：管理層預期在當前條件下，資本化率（Cap Rate）將繼續走高。與租戶的直接關係使 Getty 能在資本成本變動時重新議價，儘管每筆交易的結果各有不同。

便利商店營運：管理層表示，全國燃油利潤率維持在 0.40 美元出頭的水準，有助於抵消租戶門市來客量放緩的趨勢。投資組合的租金覆蓋率保持穩定。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Getty Realty's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded.

[Operator Instructions]

Prior to starting the call, Joshua Dicker, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of the company, will read a safe harbor statement and provide information about non-GAAP financial measures. Please go ahead, Mr. Dicker.

Joshua Dicker

Thank you, operator. I would like to thank you all for joining us for Getty Realty's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday afternoon, the company released its financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The Form 8-K and earnings release are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at gettyrealty.com. Certain statements made during this call are not based on historical information and may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to trends, events and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.

Examples of forward-looking statements include our 2026 guidance and may include statements made by management, including those regarding the company's future operations, future financial performance or investment plans and opportunities. We caution you that such statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us and that actual events or results could differ materially. I refer you to the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as well as any subsequent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect our view only as of today. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements that may be made during this call. Also, please refer to our earnings release for a discussion of our use of non-GAAP financial measures, including our definition of adjusted funds from operations, or AFFO, and our reconciliation of those measures to net earnings. With that, let me turn the call over to Christopher Constant, our Chief Executive Officer.

Christopher Constant

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call for the third quarter of 2026. Joining us on the call today are Brian Dickman, our Chief Financial Officer; and RJ Ryan, our Chief Investment Officer. I will lead off today's call by providing highlights of Getty's quarterly financial performance and investment activity. RJ will then discuss our portfolio and our investments in greater detail, and Brian will provide additional information regarding our earnings, balance sheet and 2026 AFFO per share guidance.

Getty is having the most productive year of my tenure with more than $500 million of year-to-date investments highlighted by our recently closed $261 million sale-leaseback transaction with Refuel. We have long said that one of Getty's advantages is the relationships we have in our target sectors, and this transaction is a clear demonstration of that. This was an off-market deal that we negotiated directly with Refuel, a convenience retail operator that we have been cultivating a relationship with since 2019 and who has been a tenant of Getty's since 2021. Refuel is a leading operator in the convenience store sector known for its premium brand, growing platform and high-quality real estate, all of which align well with our underwriting criteria. They are one of the largest regional convenience store platforms in the country, operating approximately 250 locations under the Refuel and Double Quick brands across 5 states in the Southeastern U.S.

We worked closely with the Refuel management team to size the portfolio and ultimately acquired 41 locations. These assets are spread across several growth markets, including Raleigh-Durham in North Carolina, Charleston and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina, Austin and San Antonio in Texas and the Greater Jackson Metro area in Mississippi. All of these locations are modern large-format convenience stores that include proprietary hot food offerings and/or branded quick service restaurants and average nearly 5,000 square feet and 2.5 acres per site.

Even as capital costs have shifted since we priced the transaction, the initial cash yield reflects the quality of the real estate and the operator as well as the opportunity to complete the transaction outside of a competitive process. Importantly, we funded a substantial portion of the transaction with capital raised earlier in the year at lower costs, which allowed us to generate a positive initial investment spread. We were also able to identify capital recycling opportunities within our existing portfolio that allow us to capture outsized value for certain properties and accretively redeploy the proceeds into the Refuel portfolio. Again, I will say that we are thrilled to increase our exposure with a strong operator in Refuel and to own these large modern convenience store assets in some of the best markets across the U.S.

In addition to the Refuel transaction, we've invested more than $240 million across a diverse set of convenience and automotive retail assets year-to-date, including collision centers, drive-thru QSRs, oil change facilities, express tunnel car washes and other large-format convenience stores. This activity has helped drive a 21% year-over-year increase in our annualized base rent, 5% growth in our year-to-date AFFO per share and another increase in our full year 2026 earnings guidance range. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our platform and our ability to consistently source relationship-based sale leasebacks in our core convenience and automotive retail real estate sectors.

But our ability to source opportunities must be matched by disciplined capital allocation. We will deploy capital only when expected investment spreads support earnings growth and create long-term value for our shareholders. As we look at the spectrum of opportunities beyond what we have under contract, it is clear that the rapid increase in interest rates and broader capital costs are having an impact on the transaction market for commercial properties in our target sectors.

We think it is important that we remain positioned to serve our tenant base and capture the opportunities that will inevitably surface as the market recalibrates.

While we are real estate investors at our core, operators in our target sectors also view us as a financing source. Our capital helps them invest in their businesses, grow their store networks and manage their balance sheets, and we want to continue supporting these efforts. That said, we intend to remain disciplined in our underwriting and approach to capital allocation. We will continue to prioritize owning well-located properties with strong access and visibility in densely populated or growing metro areas. We will structure leases that require site-level financial reporting and other landlord protections. And we will continue to be thoughtful about how we raise and deploy capital to ensure we are doing so in an accretive manner.

The long-term health of our portfolio is paramount, and we remain confident in the quality, durability and ongoing diversification of our asset base as well as the tenants that occupy our real estate who provide essential goods and services to the mobile consumer. We believe that we have built a differentiated platform that can drive disciplined growth as we continue to lean into our focused investment strategy and our core convenience in automotive retail sectors. Finally, I'm pleased to report that our Board of Directors approved an increase of 3.1% in our recurring quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share. This represents the 13th straight year we have grown the dividend alongside our earnings. With that, I will let RJ discuss our portfolio and investment activities.

Robert Ryan

Thank you, Chris. At quarter end, our lease portfolio included 1,263 properties and 2 active redevelopment sites. Excluding the active redevelopments, occupancy was 99.7%, and our weighted average lease term has increased to 10.8 years. Our portfolio spans 46 states plus Washington, D.C., with 58% of our annualized base rent coming from the top 50 MSAs and 74% coming from top 100 MSAs. For the quarter, we invested $297.4 million, which included the acquisition of 53 properties for $286 million and incremental development funding of $11.3 million.

The initial cash yield on these investments was 6.9%. The weighted average lease term on acquired assets for the quarter was 19.5 years.

Beyond the Refuel transaction, we also acquired 12 additional properties for $25.2 million at an 8% initial cash yield, including 1 travel center, several auto service centers and a couple of drive-thru QSRs that all represented repeat business with existing tenants. Subsequent to quarter end, we invested an additional $46.3 million at a 7.6% initial cash yield, bringing our year-to-date total investments to $502.3 million at a 7.2% initial cash yield. Looking ahead, the majority of the $75 million of investments under contract are auto service centers and drive-thru QSRs. About half of the pipeline is comprised of development funding transactions with the balance being regular way acquisitions. Initial cash yields for this opportunity set are in the 8% area.

With respect to other investments that we are evaluating, we are having constructive discussions with counterparties regarding asset pricing. While we typically see a lag between changes in capital costs and transaction yields, we are encouraged by the dialogue thus far, including successfully repricing certain deals. We expect opportunities to remain available in our target convenience and automotive retail sectors, but we will proceed selectively and pursue only those investments that meet our underwriting and return criteria. Moving to dispositions. During the third quarter, we sold 8 properties for gross proceeds of $11.6 million. And year-to-date, we've disposed of 14 properties for gross proceeds of $23.5 million. We have several additional properties in various stages of the disposition process, and we are tracking to generate the proceeds we've targeted to partially fund the Refuel transaction and potentially other investment activity.

With respect to our asset management activities, as we have grown and become increasingly diversified, we have continued to evolve our approach to monitoring tenant credit, site level performance and other indicators of portfolio risk. Ultimately, our goal is to develop a framework that can scale with our growing asset base and allow us to provide incremental and standardized views of portfolio risk. Approximately 77% of our ABR requires site level financial reporting from tenants, and we have visibility into an additional 17.5% of ABR that is derived from public reporting companies.

Overall, the portfolio continues to operate at essentially full occupancy and exhibit stable rent coverage, which reflects the resilience of our tenants and the businesses they operate. Trailing 12-month rent coverage was 2.5x, consistent with recent periods and both convenience store and car wash coverage were in line with that level. As always, we will continue to monitor certain leases with near-term lease expirations, lower rent coverage and other situations that may arise in the normal course. With that, I will turn the call over to Brian to discuss our financial results.

Brian Dickman

Thanks, RJ. Good morning, everyone. Starting with headline earnings. AFFO per share was $0.64 in Q3 2026 and $1.89 for the first 9 months of the year, representing growth of 3.2% and 5.0%, respectively, over the prior year period. A more detailed description of our quarterly and year-to-date results can be found in our earnings release and our corporate presentation contains additional information regarding our earnings and dividend per share growth over the last several years. Moving to G&A expenses. Management focuses on the ratio of G&A, excluding stock-based compensation and nonrecurring retirement costs to cash rental and interest income. That ratio was 8.2% for Q3 2026 and 8.9% for the first 9 months of the year, representing improvements of 60 basis points and 85 basis points, respectively, as compared to the prior year period. We continue to expect G&A growth to be less than 2% and our G&A ratio to be below 9% for the full year 2026 as we continue to benefit from efforts to scale the company.

Turning to the balance sheet and liquidity. As of September 30, net debt to EBITDA was 5.2x or 5.0x, including unsettled forward equity, which is within our stated target leverage range of 4.5x to 5.5x. Fixed charge coverage for the quarter was 4.1x. We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion of total debt outstanding, including $1 billion of senior unsecured notes with a weighted average interest rate of 4.5% and a weighted average maturity of 5.5 years, and $200 million drawn on our $450 million revolving credit facility. We have no debt maturities until 2028. After quarter end, we closed on a new $200 million unsecured term loan and used the proceeds to repay the balance on our Revolver. The term loan has an initial term of 2 years with 3 12-month extension options and bears interest at an effective rate of 5.03% based on our BBB- credit rating.

During the quarter, we settled approximately 5.1 million shares of common stock subject to outstanding forward sale agreements for net proceeds of approximately $165 million. We also entered into new forward sale agreements to sell approximately 800,000 shares of common stock for anticipated gross proceeds of $28 million. In total, we currently have 1.5 million shares of common stock subject to outstanding forward sale agreements, which upon settlement are anticipated to raise gross proceeds of approximately $52 million. We have more than $500 million of total liquidity at quarter end, including unsettled forward equity and Revolver capacity, which provides sufficient capital to fund our under contract pipeline and pursue additional investments that meet our underwriting and return criteria as discussed by both Chris and RJ.

With respect to our earnings outlook, as a result of our year-to-date investment activity, we are tightening our full year 2026 AFFO per share guidance to a range of $2.53 to $2.54 from our prior guidance of $2.52 to $2.54. As a reminder, our guidance reflects the current run rate from our in-place portfolio with certain expense and credit loss variability and does not include any prospective investments or capital activities. With that, I'll ask the operator to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And our first question will come from Mitchell Germain with Citizens JMP.

分析師問答

Mitch Germain

Congrats on the quarter. I know the yield on the Refuel deal came in a little bit lower relative to what you've been completing on more of your regular way acquisitions. Can you just talk a little bit about kind of weighing the economics versus the quality of the tenant and maybe the lease structure and how you view the overall deal and how it fits.

Christopher Constant

Yes. I mean I'll start and then RJ can maybe go to some of the details, Mitch. But first off, as I mentioned, Refuel has been a tenant of ours for more than 5 years. We have assets with them in a couple of markets across the South that we expanded on as part of this deal. As far as I know, we're their only institutional landlord. This was a directly negotiated transaction where we worked with them to pick a portfolio, size the transaction overall. Again, I'll just say that we feel great about how the transaction came to us, the relationship we have with Refuel, the alignment that we have from a geographic focus, modern format convenience stores. And just internally here at Getty, I'm thrilled with how thoughtful we were around the structuring, the unitary leases, the financing that we've discussed -- and overall, just -- again, I think as I mentioned, we're really happy with the deal. We feel really good about having Refuel as one of our top tenants, and we're thrilled to own the assets long term.

Robert Ryan

Hey, Mitch, it's RJ. As Chris said in his prepared remarks, this is direct off-market with a proven partner. These are large-format stores at nearly 5,000 square feet and 2.5 acres of site. I think what really stands out to us about the assets and the operator is Refuel is focused on the C-store, very consistent branding, high-quality food offerings, many of the sites have complementary QSRs with drive-thrus as part of the facility. And all those assets in really good markets are backed by a growing regionally dominated operator. If you were to ask me what the ideal asset and tenant looks like in 2026, for Getty. These Refuel sites are the epitome of kind of the modern C-store and platform and really is one of the reasons we are so bullish on the package.

Mitch Germain

Great. That's super helpful. Are dispositions going to be a part of your strategy or a growing part of your strategy on a forward basis?

Brian Dickman

Hey, Mitch, it's Brian. I think there's probably maybe 2 ways to answer that. Clearly, we've been a little bit more explicit about capital recycling as it relates to the Refuel transaction. As Chris just mentioned, that was part of the -- what we believe is a thoughtful capital structure for that deal, the opportunity to mine our portfolio for some assets that could generate outsized value creation and be redeployed accretively. So that's one piece of it. Again, I think we've been pretty clear, pretty explicit about.

I think on a go forward, we're always evaluating as I think most of that these platforms are capital sources relative to where we can deploy that capital. We've demonstrated over the last several years, our ability to be timely and opportunistic around equity offerings, around debt offerings, using forwards, using the ATM, using delayed draws to manage the match funding of that capital. And again, I think dispositions are something that we absolutely will be looking at. We spent some time this year advancing or enhancing sort of our disposition platform to get that to be more programmatic in the way that our acquisition platform has grown into over the last several years. And I guess it's a long way of saying, I think it's part of the equation, but it will be dependent on other factors, other capital sources and where we can deploy capital as well.

Operator

Our next question will come from Upal Rana with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Upal Rana

Chris, maybe if you could talk a little bit about the strategy in the current environment. You mentioned staying disciplined, not changing underwriting metrics and seeing the ability to reprice investments. But I want to get your thoughts relative to your current liquidity and leverage levels, what the current strategy is.

Christopher Constant

Yes, it's a great question. Thank you. I think as I mentioned on a couple of calls or in other meetings this year, I mean, going into '26 and at certain parts earlier in the year when we had the cost of capital, we took advantage of that raised funds aggressively. And when you combine that with the people we have here at Getty, the improvements we made in processes and systems, we leaned in on the acquisition side. And I think the $500 million year-to-date kind of reflects that.

As we sit here today, and you look at our pipeline, which is now 75, maybe slightly smaller than it's been in prior quarters, I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing, right? We're reacting to changing market conditions. As RJ mentioned, there's been some repricing of transactions. And we're going to just remain disciplined with underwriting, disciplined with locking in accretive spreads. And we're really going to take it transaction by transaction and just keep focusing on adding the highest quality assets Getty can in its target sectors to our portfolio.

Upal Rana

Okay. Great. That was helpful. And then maybe a question for RJ. You mentioned seeing investments in the 8% range and you're having constructive conversations with tenants to reprice. Could you talk a little bit more about those conversations and any details on deal economics that could change due to these repricings?

Robert Ryan

Sure. The movement in interest rates and capital costs in general over the last 60 to 90 days has been really rapid. Generally, when moves like this take place over longer time horizons, cap rates tend to lag. Obviously, the last 60 to 90 days have been unique. I think what we're seeing is partners aware of what's transpiring broadly and far more willing to engage and be constructive than certainly what we've seen in the past.

I think part of the success that we've had in restructuring or renegotiating deals recently is just the very nature of the types of deals that we do and the partnerships we build. The vast majority of our deal flow is directly with our counterparties. So we're constantly speaking them throughout the deal life cycle. And what we offer them is a tool to help them grow. But that direct connectivity is really what allows our deal team to be transparent real time. I think we're able to share kind of educate our partners on what's happening in the broader market and what's happening with our cost of capital as well. And what we found recently really in all stages of deals in our pipeline is a willingness for our counterparties to adjust and move with us as the market moves. And look, if we can't find agreement on how best to move forward, we'll either collectively kind of punt or delay the transaction or part ways on that specific deal. But all in all, I've been really pleased with how the team has been able to adjust and keep many, if not most of the deals really over the last 60, 90 days moving forward.

Operator

And moving next to Jana Galan with Bank of America.

Jana Galan

Congrats on a very busy quarter and year. Maybe a question for Brian on the different ways you evaluated funding the Refuel transaction and maybe talking to the term loan and kind of pricing around that.

Brian Dickman

Yes. Absolutely, Jana. Thanks for the comments. We look at any transaction a few different ways. But one of the ways we always start with is looking at spot cost of capital. And this is a transaction that was agreed to that was priced back in -- right around the end of May, so call it, mid-second quarter. As Chris alluded to, obviously, the environment was a little bit different there. And on that basis, it was accretive at the time, but maybe not at the levels that we look to achieve on a regular basis. And so a big part of it was some of the dispositions that we talked about, not a huge contributor in terms of dollar amount, but the types of cap rates that some of those assets have sold and some of the ones in the pipeline we think will sell added quite a bit to that investment spread.

With respect to the debt, it was a combination of things. Obviously, a shorter-term loan is going to have a lower interest rate. And yes, we certainly acknowledge that, that's a positive contributor to the spread. But there was other rationale, particularly around balance sheet flexibility that we thought made a lot of sense to go with a short-term -- shorter-term fully prepayable loan. We have some other debt coming due in '28. We'll likely be recasting our Revolver in 2028. That matures in January '29. And it just gives us some optionality at that time as we're looking at our capital structure, private placements, which we've done a lot of in the past or if we're looking at the public bond market at that time.

So again, emphasizing the flexibility. And if those options don't seem appealing at the time, we do have the 3 extension options available to us, which would largely make us a 5-year loan into 2031, where we had no other debt maturities. So we felt that fit very well also. So there was an economic benefit to going shorter term. But I'd say as big, if not, even more of a driver of choosing that path was the flexibility that affords us on the balance sheet as we get out a couple of years.

Operator

And moving on to Robert Stevenson with Huntington.

Robert Stevenson

Brian, what type of annual run rate of free cash flow are you generating post the now increased dividend on an annual basis heading into '27?

Brian Dickman

Yes. Thanks for asking, Rob. It's something, obviously, as we've been growing the company, that's been increasing. I'd say, call it, $40 million to $50 million at this point, so take the midpoint about $45 million, which on a relative basis for our size and our typical investment activity notwithstanding this year, can be a nice contributor to funding sources.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. And then given where you sit from a leverage perspective, like how are you thinking about your desire, ability, given your incremental cost of leverage, given the new debt, et cetera, to go over the next, call it, 3 to 6 months if your equity is -- doesn't rebound? Because I assume that you guys aren't enthused about raising equity at 27 and below at this point.

Brian Dickman

Not enthused would be an appropriate characterization of that, Rob. Yes. Maybe I'll take a jump up and just a little bit high level. If you look at the $50 million of equity for round numbers, let's say, $50 million of free cash flow, again, that's going to be more over a 4, 5-quarter period. And lever that up. But that gives you, call it, $165 million of leverage-neutral buying power, just to use some round numbers against that $75 million under contract pipeline. So that's what allows us to say with confidence that we have ample funding capacity, ample capital available to fund the pipeline plus some additional opportunities as they arise, and that would be on a leverage-neutral basis.

I think beyond that, you start looking at where are the other capital sources, where is equity at those times, where is our disposition program, which we are talking about a little bit. And then where is the market on the deployment of that capital. I think we all know we're spread investors. And as the transaction market starts to adjust, if we can generate the appropriate spreads and get the right yields even at these capital costs, that may make sense for us to do. Alternatively, as we've been talking a lot about on this call, we're going to be disciplined with allocation. And if we can't do that, we'll be very selective and do the deals that make the most sense. And if volume floats as a result, deal volume that is, that's okay, right? We're earnings growth-focused shop, spread investing focused shop. And volume, as you've seen from us over the years, will tend to be a variable relative to the deals that are available to us.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. And then the other question for me is, I think history has borne out that the 1031 buyers are usually less price sensitive than typical buyers. But when you guys think about the dispositions that you guys want to do, the other sort of pocket that we've been hearing more about lately is the bonus depreciation pool. How big of a buying pool is that from your perspective? Is it meaningful? Is there likely to be players in that space for the assets that you want to sell? Or is it more likely just to be the sort of typical 1031 stuff towards the end of the year here?

Robert Ryan

This is RJ. I think you hit the nail on the head. Historically, 1031 has been that -- I don't know what's the right word, a premium buyer. But certainly, as the bonus depreciation laws have kind of codified. That is becoming a bigger and bigger part of our universe, the net lease universe. And certainly, I think Getty is uniquely positioned where the majority of assets that we own are prime targets for that type of buyer. It's -- we've engaged with buyers on that front over the years. And I do think it is one that continues to grow and certainly part of our strategy as we think about dispositions, both now and on a go-forward basis.

Operator

Our next question will come from Alec Feygin with Baird.

Alec Feygin

First one for me is on the pipeline, are you noticing any skew towards development or sale leaseback or just fee simple acquisitions or any particular sectors within your target range?

Robert Ryan

This is RJ. I think I've talked about it in past quarters that I feel like sale leaseback has been coming more in vogue over the last, call it, 3 to 6 quarters. I think that trend continues. I do continue to see balance. Folks continue to want to grow ground up. But I think both our partners and we are focused on being discerning on those development deals as costs rise that they're the right ones. So it remains a part of our pipeline and a part of our strategy. But I think I highlight that I think sale-leaseback and that more traditional transaction, Refuel is a prime example, is continuing to become a stronger part of our pipeline.

Brian Dickman

And Alec, I would just add specific to some of the metrics we put out today, that $75 million pipeline, if it's not obvious, are deals that were struck in a slightly different time period, right? Those are all deals under contract. Some of those are development funding deals that we've had under contract for some time, some of the acquisitions maybe more recently, but all sort of backwards looking versus what we've been talking about the current environment. And I think, RJ, don't put words in your mouth, but probably a little TBD, right, how tenants are going to react to the broader environment, macro environment around how they're thinking of new store growth, whether that's ground up or acquisitions.

Just to reiterate RJ's point, the key takeaway is that we're positioned to support those tenants in either structure, and we end up with fee simple ownership of an asset under long-term lease either way, and that's really what we're after.

Alec Feygin

Yes, that's very helpful. I guess secondly for me, does the willingness from your partners to adjust their pricing expectations say something about their own exposure to floating rate debt? And in the current environment, does that make your capital more attractive given their alternatives?

Robert Ryan

That could be a fair assumption. I think our tenants are exploring a lot of different ways to manage their balance sheet. I think the products that we offer over the last year or so, I just answered it earlier, are continuing to become more and more attractive. I don't necessarily think the current market changes that desire for them to continue to partner with us. And we've got a couple of different avenues that we can partner with them to aid their growth, manage their balance sheet.

Operator

We'll go next to Bradley Heffern with RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern

You talked about the cap rate around 8% for the pipeline. That's about 40 basis points or so higher than the recently closed deals.

I'm just thinking to match where the 10-year and bond yields have gone, that probably needs to be something like 100 to get to the same economics you had sort of pre- rising rates. Do you have any visibility on getting to a number like that or confidence in getting to that? And just the 8% that you're seeing now, is that representative of what we should expect in the next few months?

Robert Ryan

Brad, it's RJ. Obviously, over the last 60 to 90 days, things have moved quickly. Our engagement with our partners kind of varied depending on the deal and certainly where that deal is in its life cycle. I think what you're alluding to is kind of the future. And those are, I think, being -- I don't know the right word, born in the newer environment. So certainly, pricing and pricing adjustments are part of the conversation on day 1. With specificity where it's headed, I just -- one, I'm not sure I can predict that. But we do take it deal by deal, and we certainly are looking at all the factors, our own cost of capital, our own need to have accretive investments with really every transaction. And certainly, I would expect cap rates to keep walking up in the current conditions.

Brad Heffern

Okay. Got it. And then, Brian, on the guidance, can you just go through any pushes and pulls there? Obviously, you have Refuel in for a quarter, so that's presumably a positive. But is there anything else that changed that's either helping or hurting?

Brian Dickman

Given our methodology, Brad, sort of run rate, I'd say the short answer would be no in terms of material onetime or other. But for the assumptions that do have some variability to it, obviously, with rates having ticked up, short-term rates, in particular, any balances on the Revolver that are subject to -- we use a forward curve in our model, as you can expect. So rates have ticked up a little bit there. This may not get exactly to your question, but just the timing of funding Refuel. We took out a little bit more equity in the third quarter than we would have had some of the disposition proceeds that we're circling up now been available then. So that's kind of a small drag in the near term.

And then we are maybe a little bit conservative, I would say, around potential debt deal costs. That's one of the other areas where there's some variability. We've obviously spent a lot of time here talking about the transaction market and conversations around repricing and renegotiating. You've heard that we've had some success, which we feel good about, but didn't want to get too aggressive around that assumption just because we may see some fallout, as RJ alluded to, if we can't get a meeting of the minds, there may be some deals that we do walk from. But beyond that, I'd say typical sort of guidance from us and maybe those items drove the tightening versus an increase on both ends.

Operator

Moving on to Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Michael Goldsmith

First, just given the evolving environment, how are you thinking about diversifying the portfolio? Presumably, QSRs may be trading at a little bit compressed cap rates relative to your cost of capital now, but just trying to get a sense of how does your diversification goals change in an environment like this?

Christopher Constant

Yes. I'd say broadly speaking, we still really like the 4 sectors that we focus on, right? And I really think we're looking at what's the right transaction for Getty within each sector. One of the areas that's not lost on us is this is the second year in a row that we've got a large C-store portfolio, right, which might be impeding some of our diversification goals by sector. But again, I just go back to what I said before, which is we're really focused on adding the right assets in the right markets with the right tenant in the portfolio. And we think that size and scale right now may trump some of our overall diversification goals. But Michael, really, we're a focused investor. We're in 4 primary convenience and automotive retail sectors. We like the areas we invest in. We're happy with the businesses that our tenants operate and the essential services that they provide, and we'll take it deal by deal.

Michael Goldsmith

Got it. And then maybe along the same lines and following up on the question on capital recycling earlier, but as you think about your portfolio, where are there potential pockets where you think you could dispose where maybe the market is valuing the properties more than you are, or there's opportunities to get some compressed cap rate sales so that you can fund continued growth? Just trying to understand where in the portfolio you have opportunities to recycle.

Christopher Constant

Yes. I think there's -- I would just point to 2 broad areas. First is some of the properties that we've redeveloped into what I would call as non-core assets for Getty. Again, that's -- on one hand, we're really happy that we're able to redevelop properties and reinvest in assets. But today, if it's not part of our core convenience and automotive strategy, I think there's a real opportunity to extract value there. And then we do have a number of properties that are located in highly attractive markets, particularly in the Northeast. And there are folks that are looking at those as maybe alternative use values that would be on a cap rate basis, priced very aggressively.

Operator

We'll go next to Akhil Guntupalli with JPMorgan.

Akhil Guntupalli

This is Akhil from JPMorgan. First, can you talk about how the fuel margins are trending? I know that the fuel margin data you provide has a quarter lag. Can you also tell us where -- what are you hearing from tenants more recently?

Christopher Constant

Yes. I think we mentioned this on the last call. Nationally, fuel margins continue to be in that low $0.40 range, which is, again, not a record, but is a very healthy number. And one of the potential shifts that's happening right now in 2026 is I would think that the gross profit made on the fuel is offsetting or more than offsetting any softness that we're seeing from our tenants who are maybe looking at retail visits inside the store being flattish as opposed to the prior decade where all the growth has been really around in-store visits. So again, coverage in the portfolio is stable. I think fuel is a larger contributor in '26 than it has been in prior years. Longer term, I think we'd expect to see the trend continue where the growth inside the C-store and the diversification of products sold and branding will continue to be the majority of the emphasis for our tenants from a growth perspective. But today, fuel is performing quite well.

Akhil Guntupalli

Second question from my side. This quarter, I believe you quoted a 10 bps credit loss. I know it's a really small amount, but could you clarify whether this is driven primarily by a single tenant exposure or by a broader mix of smaller tenant losses?

Brian Dickman

Hey, Akhil. It's Brian. I don't know of any realized credit losses. You may be referring to the sort of rounding collection number. We have been at 100%. I think it's 99.9%. And frankly, I think it probably rounds up to 100%. So I would say that's just regular way collections in terms of operating a large portfolio, but no realized credit losses if we're talking about the same thing.

Operator

And this now concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Christopher Constant for closing comments.

Christopher Constant

Great. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us for our call for the third quarter. We look forward to getting back on with everybody in February when we report the fourth quarter and year-end results for 2026, and we really appreciate your interest in Getty Realty.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.