卡本特科技 (CRS) 2027 財年第一季財報電話會議：營業利益成長 28%

卡本特科技 (Carpenter Technology, NYSE: CRS) 儘管經歷了計畫性的維護停機，第一財季營業利益仍創下歷史新高。管理層表示，航太需求、定價與生產力趨勢自上一季以來持續增強。

重點摘要

• 2027 財年第一季營業利益達到 1.964 億美元，年增 28%、季減 5%。稀釋後每股盈餘 (EPS) 為 3.25 美元。
• 不含附加費的淨銷售額年增 5%，但季減 7%，主要是受到計畫性預防維護停機的影響。
• SAO 部門創造了 2.163 億美元的營業利益，並在營運天數減少的情況下，維持 37.7% 的調整後營業利益率。
• 商用航太新接訂單年增 25%。結構件與分銷訂單季增 23%、年增 49%，而引擎訂單則季增 10%、年增 22%。
• 管理層預期 2027 財年第二季營業利益為 1.92 億至 1.97 億美元，並維持 2027 財年自由現金流為 4 億至 4.3 億美元的預測。
• 卡本特科技目標在 2029 財年實現約 12 億至 13 億美元的營業利益，代表三年年複合成長率 (CAGR) 超過 20%，同時強調這是管理層目標而非獲利頂峰估算。

關鍵財務結果

業務與營運表現

SAO

SAO 不含附加費的淨銷售額為 5.735 億美元，年增 7%、季減 6%。季減主要反映計畫性維護停機，但部分被產品組合最佳化與定價提升所抵銷。

調整後營業利益率為 37.7%，與上一季的高點紀錄持平。管理層認為產能利用率、定價、生產力及產品組合的改善仍有進一步擴張空間，但也指出出貨組合可能導致各季度出現波動。

PEP

PEP 不含附加費的淨銷售額為 8,300 萬美元，年減 5%、季減 15%。營業利益為 730 萬美元，而去年同期則為 940 萬美元。

醫療市場的鈦金屬銷售下降拖累了年增表現，但增材製造（3D列印）業務提供了部分抵銷。

航太與國防

由於計畫性停機，航太與國防銷售額季減 5%，但仍年增 10%。該公司商用航太單季銷售額仍創下歷史次高紀錄。

管理層表示商用航太需求持續增強。據報導，客戶的下單量低於支援目前飛機生產速率所需的水平，這表明隨著供應鏈加速運作，後續可能需要追加訂單。

無論是長期合約 (LTA) 還是非 LTA 業務，定價優勢持續帶來推升作用。近期續簽的航太 LTA 包含了更高的採購量與價格，不過管理層預期 LTA 佔整體業務的比率將保持相對穩定。

由於直接客戶缺乏足夠的資金能見度，國防新接訂單呈現季減與年減。管理層預計，一旦預算明朗度改善，訂單將大幅增加，但時間點仍具不確定性。

管理層財測指引

第二季展望考量了假期期間生產時間減少因素。管理層預期生產力與產品組合的改善將部分抵銷營業天數減少的影響。

現有廠區擴建計畫仍符合預算並按時推進，預計在 2028 財年初完成。管理層預期，新增產能上線後，將被現有 LTA 與不斷增長的客戶需求所消化。

風險與關注焦點

• 國防資金：需求據描述依然強勁，但下單情況仍受到資金不確定性與預算時程的限制。
• 產能可用性：計畫性維護與假期排程減少了營運天數，儘管管理層預期未來的維護規模將小於 2027 財年 Q1。
• 產品組合波動：SAO 的利潤率可能會根據每季出貨的產品而有所波動。
• 現金流時程：第一季存貨增加，且隨著擴建項目接近尾聲，下半年的資本支出可能會上升。
• 航太總體經濟疑慮：會中討論了燃料與機票價格上漲問題，但管理層表示尚未觀察到客戶需求疲軟或引擎售後市場放緩的情況。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，對需求、定價以及 2027 至 2029 財年展望的信心比上一季更強。管理層指出，相較於先前指引所採用的假設，出貨量、定價與生產力是潛在的上升動力來源。

該公司在各終端市場的在手訂單持續增加。結構件與分銷客戶普遍反映庫存較低，且新接訂單量超過已開票出貨量。

管理層表示，近期續簽的航太 LTA 包含了大幅提高的採購量需求，但產業市場占有率可能總體維持穩定。新增的擴建產能預計將由現有客戶合約消化，而非綁定至特定設備。

在資本配置方面，卡本特科技本季投入了 1.339 億美元用於股票回購。管理層表示，打算繼續資助擴建項目，並在新建置的 10 億美元回購計畫下保持積極作法。

法說會逐字稿全文

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Carpenter Technologies First Quarter Full Year '27 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I will now hand the conference over to John Hewitt, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Carpenter Technology Earnings Conference Call for the fiscal 2027 First Quarter ended September 30, 2026. This call is also being broadcast over the Internet along with presentation slides. For those of you listening by phone, you may experience a time delay in slide movement.

Speakers on the call today are Tony Thene, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Lain, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Statements made by management during this earnings presentation that are forward-looking statements are based on current expectations. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Carpenter Technology's most recent SEC filings, including the company's report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2026, and the exhibits attached to that filing.

Please also note that in the following discussion, unless otherwise noted, when management discusses the sales or revenue, that reference excludes surcharge. When referring to operating margins, that is based on adjusted operating income excluding special items and sales, excluding surcharge.

I will now turn the call over to Tony.

Tony Thene

Thank you, John, and good morning to everyone. I will start on Slide 4 with a review of our safety performance. We ended the first quarter with a total case incident rate of 1.7%. We continue to invest in programs for employees with a focus on identifying potential risks and minimizing the severity of injuries.

With our focus on leading indicators, we expect to see continued progress on our ultimate goal, a 0 injury workplace. Let's turn to Slide 5 for an overview of our first quarter performance. Our first quarter performance was a solid start to fiscal year 2027. The quarter's primary talking points fit into a tight simple narrative, one, record first quarter operating income up 28% over the first quarter of last year.

The record results were driven by productivity improvement, disciplined mix management and continued realization of pricing actions; two, SAO segment adjusted operating margin matched the record from last quarter at 37.7%. This is an impressive feat with fewer operating days and increased preventive maintenance activity versus last quarter. And to be clear, we do not view this margin level as the peak as we expect strengthening demand, productivity and pricing actions to drive us to higher levels;

Three, bookings continue to increase. Specifically, our bookings for customers in the commercial aerospace supply chain were up again sequentially and up 25% year-over-year. Importantly, the most talked about aerospace submarkets, distribution and structural were up 23% sequentially and 49% year-over-year. and aerospace engine bookings continue to increase sequentially.

It is important to note that we and many others believe the industry is just at the beginning of this super cycle with even stronger demand anticipated in the coming quarters of fiscal year 2027 and beyond. As an extra data point, we have numerous customers who have confirmed that they are ordering at a level that doesn't even support current aerospace OEM build rates, let alone the projected future build rate increases the industry is planning for. This is an important point because it supports the fact that bookings will lead to continue to increase significantly in the near future to support demand.

Four, pricing continues to be a tailwind, with strengthening demand and an expanding supply-demand gap for nickel super alloys, our pricing for both LTA and non-LTA business remains elevated and consistently increasing.

And five, strong financial targets for fiscal year 2027 and 2029, that we are focused on overachieving. More on that on my closing slide. That is the summary of the quarter's performance and current state of the business. All 5 primary areas of interest for our shareholders are currently flashing green and exhibit clear positive signals. Consistent record operating income performance, strong operating margins with levers to expand further, accelerating demand across key end-use markets, continuing benefit from pricing actions and an industry-leading financial outlook with opportunity to overachieve.

Let me turn to Slide 6 and a closer look at first quarter sales and market conditions. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, our total sales, excluding raw material surcharge were down 7% sequentially and up 5% year-over-year. As expected, the sequential sales decline was driven by the planned maintenance outages we discussed on the last earnings call.

I will focus my comments today on the aerospace and defense end-use market as it accounts for the majority of our sales. Sales in the Aerospace and Defense end-use market were down 5% sequentially and up 10% year-over-year. Again, this sequential decline was expected and reflects the impact of our planned maintenance outages.

For more submarket sales detail, I will share the following: Aero Engine sales sequential change was a bit better than the overall aerospace and defense average. Aerospace fasteners was a bit worse, although it was the second highest sales quarter on record, second only to the previous quarter. Aerospace structural and distribution submarkets was roughly flat to a strong previous quarter.

And the defense submarket was down sequentially due primarily to lack of clear funding. I will talk more about this a bit later. It is important to note that any time in the aerospace market is still only in the early stages of a large ramp. And during a quarter where we had significant plant outages we posted our second highest quarter of commercial aerospace sales on record and delivered a record first quarter operating income.

As we build on the strong quarterly performance, let me provide you with some color on how we see the near-term future unfolding, how current bookings are taking shape and what our customers are telling us right now. Some have worried that macro events like the IRAM conflict increasing jet fuel prices and rising ticket prices will dampen travel demand and thus, the overall aerospace industry.

But to date, the industry has been resilient as airlines are still reporting strong demand and air traffic is up 14% quarter-over-quarter. MRO activity is expected to continue to grow due to the overall demand environment along with a large number of engines approaching their first shop visits.

Airbus and Boeing continue to ramp production with backlogs now over 16,000 planes. That's more than 10 years of production. The industry is projecting approximately 1,400 to 1,500 new airplane builds in calendar year 2026, and they want to go higher with target rates above 2,100. That's a 50% increase above the current year rate, repeat a 50% increase above the current year rate.

So clearly, we are still in the early stages of this ramp, with significant growth ahead of us. We do not have any customers talking to us about slowing down or about concerns over aerospace market growth in the future. Discussions are only about what pace of growth they will realize.

A key development this week was the FAA approving the Boeing 737 MAX 10. This model is strategically important since it is the largest 737 variant and roughly 30% of Boeing's backlog. This provides another positive accelerant to the demand signal for the aerospace supply chain as production of this model ramps.

Our quarterly bookings or order intake rate is an important indicator of the expanding growth. As I mentioned earlier, the aerospace distribution and structural submarket bookings were up 23% sequentially and 49% year-over-year. Our aerospace distribution customers in general are reporting that their backlogs are growing, with incoming bookings exceeding billings. Their confidence is growing, and they see solid double-digit growth in calendar year 2027 and even higher growth rates in calendar year 2028.

Our aerospace engine bookings continue to increase up 10% sequentially and 22% year-over-year. Our aerospace engine customers remain very busy in their demand outlook for calendar years 2027 and 2028 continue to strengthen as OEMs increase ordering activity. In addition, we are receiving emergency orders in this submarket and we expect those to increase as the supply chain ramps and the need for reliable material supply becomes even more critical.

Aerospace fastener bookings were down sequentially as it is normal for quarterly bookings to be inconsistent in this submarket. Our aerospace fastener customers continue to tell us that their activity has not yet fully caught up to current aircraft build rates, supporting further growth as ordering catches up with underlying demand.

Turning last to the defense submarket, where we see a stark contrast between in demand and our direct customer behavior. Bookings were down on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The disconnect between demand and supply chain activity is driven by funding challenges as our direct customers are not seeing the flow of funds required to place orders aligned with the Department of War needs.

Given our position as a critical supplier across multiple defense programs such as the next-generation fixed wing, rotary craft and missiles and munitions platforms we have seen a significant uptick in direct engagement from the Department of War and OEMs as customers prepare for future needs.

As an example, over the last quarter, the Navy selected Boeing to build its next-generation FA-XX fire. We are already engaged with the supply chain on the design of critical elements for this fighter and corporate technology will support critical applications and have meaningful material content on this platform.

Overall, the message is crystal clear. The defense industry will need significantly more material to support their goals. We, along with the industry, anticipate greater clarity post the midterm elections. Once budgets can be clarified, we anticipate a rush for material with significant emergency orders, driving significant growth in this submarket. It is clear from my comments that the key demand indicators including higher bookings, growing customer backlogs and increasing urgency for material, all point toward continued demand acceleration across our highest value end use markets.

And in this accelerating demand environment, we remain focused on execution to realize the high margin, high-growth profit opportunity ahead of us. I will take a closer look at our outlook on the last slide.

But first, I will turn it over to Tim for a review of the financials.

Timothy Lain

Thanks, Tony. Good morning, everyone. Starting with the income statement summary on Slide 8. Net sales, excluding surcharge, increased 5% year-over-year and declined 7% sequentially. The sequential decline primarily reflected planned first quarter downtime for preventative maintenance as we discussed last quarter. Improved productivity, product mix optimization efforts and pricing actions partially offset the impact of reduced operating time.

Gross profit was $256.3 million up 18% year-over-year and down 5% sequentially. Selling, general and administrative or SG&A expenses were $59.9 million, down $3.2 million year-over-year and down 2.1% sequentially and primarily due to lower variable compensation accruals. SG&A includes corporate costs of $26.1 million compared with $28.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and and $26.6 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.

We expect second quarter fiscal year 2027 corporate costs of approximately $28 million to $29 million. Operating income was $196.4 million, up 28% year-over-year and down 5% sequentially. As Tony noted, this was a first quarter record and provides a strong foundation for the rest of fiscal year 2027.

Our effective tax rate was 15.5%, similar to the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting tax benefits associated with the vesting of certain equity awards. For fiscal year 2027, we expect the effective tax rate will be near the low end of our previously provided range of 20% to 22%. Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter were $3.25.

Turning to our segment results, starting with SAO on Slide 9. First quarter net sales, excluding surcharge, were $573.5 million. Sales increased 7% year-over-year and declined 6% sequentially. The sequential decline reflected planned preventative maintenance downtime across our facilities, partially offset by mix management and pricing benefits. SAO's adjusted operating margin was 37.7%, consistent with the prior quarter's record. This is an impressive result given the lower available operating time that we typically see in our first fiscal quarter as a result of maintenance activities.

From a trend perspective, we expect further margin expansion from productivity, mix and pricing. That said, margin may vary quarter-by-quarter depending on the mix of products that we ship in any given quarter. SAO reported first quarter operating income of $216.3 million. For the second quarter of fiscal 2027, we expect SAO operating income of $214 million to $218 million, in line with the first quarter.

Our outlook reflects reduced production time during the holidays. As in prior years, we expect improved productivity and product mix optimization to partially offset the reduction in operating time.

Turning to PEP on Slide 10. First quarter fiscal year 2027 net sales, excluding surcharge, were $83 million, down 5% year-over-year and 15% sequentially. Operating income was $7.3 million, slightly above our guidance compared with $7.1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 and $9.4 million a year ago.

The year-over-year decline primarily reflected lower titanium sales into the medical end-use market, offset by strength in our additive business. We expect second quarter PEP operating income to be similar to the first quarter.

Before turning to cash flow, let me summarize our second quarter fiscal year 2027 operating income outlook. We expect total operating income of $192 million to $197 million, which is largely in line with our strong first quarter results and implies growth of 24% to 27% compared to last year's second fiscal quarter.

The total operating income estimate is comprised of SAO operating income of $214 million to $218 million, PEP operating income of approximately $7 million and corporate costs of approximately $28 million to $29 million.

Turning to Slide 11 and our cash generation and capital allocation priorities. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, we generated $52.8 million of cash from operations. and spent $77.7 million in capital expenditures that resulted in negative free cash flow for the quarter of $24.8 million. Significant cash generation is an important element of our ongoing growth story.

We continue to focus our efforts on ensuring cash generation from increasing profitability as well as focused discipline on working capital management. As expected, capital spending remains elevated as we continue to fund our brownfield capacity expansion project. A brief update on our brownfield project. The expansion project remains on budget and on schedule for completion by the start of fiscal year 2028.

Site activities are progressing well with major equipment installation underway. The project team remains focused on safely completing construction and equipment installation while preparing for a successful operational start-up. As we move through this year, we continue to anticipate generating between $400 million and $430 million of free cash flow in fiscal year 2027. And which is an impressive outlook given that includes the elevated capital spending related to our capacity expansion investments.

The cash generation enables our balanced capital allocation approach that combines investing in attractive accretive growth projects including the brownfield capacity expansion with returning cash to shareholders. That is demonstrated by the $133.9 million of share repurchases during the quarter. As announced in August, these repurchases completed the prior $400 million authorization as well as purchases under the newly authorized additional $1 billion program.

We also continue paying our long-standing quarterly dividend. Our strong balance sheet and liquidity support our capital allocation priorities. At quarter end, total liquidity was $658.6 million. comprised of $159.5 million in cash and $499.1 million in available borrowings under our credit facility.

Our credit metrics remain very strong with net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.6x. And our capital structure is well positioned to allow significant flexibility with no debt maturities until 2034. Again, we believe our strong balance sheet, solid capital structure and outlook for significant cash generation positions us well to continue to invest in future growth as well as return significant cash to shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Tony.

Tony Thene

Thanks, Tim. As I mentioned in my earlier comments, the quarterly performance can be summarized into a tight positive narrative. Consistent record operating income performance, strong operating margins with levers to expand further, accelerating demand across key end-use markets and continuing benefit from pricing actions.

I also noted an industry-leading financial outlook. For fiscal year 2027, we communicated strong financial targets just last quarter, but we are clearly focused on overachieving and are developing action plans to make that a reality. In fiscal year 2028, our brownfield capacity expansion project comes online, providing an additional accelerator to our earnings growth profile.

And by fiscal year 2029, we expect operating income to reach approximately $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. That's a 20%-plus CAGR over 3 years, a rate that we believe exceeds most in the industry. But again, our goal is to overachieve and we do not view fiscal year 2029 as the peak of our earnings power. Altogether, we believe Carpenter Technology offers a uniquely attractive long-term investment opportunity.

We are operating in an accelerated demand environment across many of the most attractive end-use markets in the world. And not only is demand accelerating, but the platforms that serve that demand. airplanes, medical implants, power generation, semiconductor fabrication, none of them can be built without carpenter technology.

As a result, we have a clear path to significant earnings growth in the years ahead. Our strong and growing margin profile reflects the fact that our portfolio consists of highly specialized solutions, serving critical applications where performance matters. Qualification cycles are long and the barriers to entry are significant.

And our strong balance sheet and growing cash flow generation provide us with the flexibility to maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation. investing in profitable growth opportunities and returning cash to shareholders.

We remain committed to creating a meaningful long-term value for shareholders through disciplined execution, continuous improvement and profitable growth.

Thank you for your time and continued confidence in Carpenter Technology.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question from Andre Madrid with U.S. Bancorp BTIG.

分析師問答

Andre Madrid

Looking at -- you mentioned maintenance as being maybe one of the reasons that is a little weaker, but it seemed like some of that was already contemplated in your 1Q outlook. So I'm just trying to better understand maybe what are some of the other puts and takes that might have driven the mist.

Tony Thene

Well, I think there are no other puts and takes. I mean the result was about 98% to 99% of the guidance that we gave. So you're only talking about a couple of million dollars, Andre, and that could come down to one customer unable to arrange a truck to be shipped in the last day of the quarter. That's how small this is what you're talking about. So I don't have a long list of items. We effectively came in at our guidance.

Operator

Your next question from Gautam Khanna with Cowen.

Gautam Khanna

And I apologize, I missed the front of the call is the earnings day. But Tony, I just -- it sounded like nothing has changed in the demand environment. Nothing has changed in the pricing environment and that your conviction in the '27 through '29 outlook is unchanged, right? I just want to make sure that. That was...

Tony Thene

It has changed. I mean it's stronger. My outlook on demand. Is stronger than it was a quarter ago. My outlook on pricing is stronger than it was a quarter ago. And my confidence in 2027 and 2029 is stronger than it was a quarter ago. So it has changed to the positive.

Gautam Khanna

Okay. And can you talk a little bit about productivity and kind of -- I know we don't have the tonnage disclosures, which is fine. I just I'm curious like anything directionally on capacity unlock the ability to drive more throughput in the first quarter and then as we move through the year, like what you guys are expecting in terms of the ability to unlock because you're 24/7 all out at this point. I'm just curious what on that....

Tony Thene

That's a good question. It's probably one of the most important questions. It's across the board. So there's not 1 item. I can't just work on 1 item. We're working on multiple areas of the plant. And as you well know, when you unlock bottleneck by definition, that creates another one, that you go work, right, and you start to link them all together.

So it was across the board. I mean, for SAO to do 1/10 percentage point less than the record last quarter. With less operating days and significantly more maintenance activity, you have to have that increased productivity to be able to maintain that. I mean that's actually an unbelievable level to be at that 37.7% in a month like we had.

So very happy with what's going on on the shop floor, but not satisfied. Of course, there's a next level and a level after that we can get to.

And I would just say this, as you look and you get into Q3 and Q4, the demand signals that are out there, that's going to be even more tailwinds to push this margin percentage up. You're going to have significantly more volume coming across the assets. and the price is going to continue to increase quarter-over-quarter.

Gautam Khanna

That's very helpful, Tony. Also, just if you could remind us on seasonal maintenance. You guys have been very proactive on doing -- pulling in maintenance throughout. But obviously, the September quarter has just a heavier load on that front. Is that unique to the quarter? And then just as we move forward, is there any pertubation you can call out now that we should be aware of, whether it's maintenance or the...

Tony Thene

Yes. The key is it's nothing special about the first quarter. That's just when we usually set up our maintenance schedules. And it usually Gautham isn't one large piece of equipment out for a long period of time. You just can't afford that in today's demand environment. So what you have are a lot of smaller maintenance projects all hooked together. And that's what you saw in the first quarter. You're going to continue to see that type of preventative maintenance throughout the year. My guess right now is none of those events will be as large as the one you saw in Q1.

Gautam Khanna

That makes sense. And just given the stock is acting kind of odd as many aerospace stocks these days. How do you prioritize capital allocation from here? Obviously, you guys have been doing buybacks. Just how do you think the Board will respond to those.

Tony Thene

Well, without being too exact, I agree with you. I think right now, there's a major negative sentiment that's emerged over the last couple of months in the aerospace market. I can't really speak to that, Gautam, because I've not found 1 person that can explain exactly to me what they're negative on. And my guess is you probably wouldn't be able to explain that to me either. But I think my prepared remarks set out a pretty strong near-term future, let alone FY '27 near term, positive future. With that said, to specifically answer your question, we're going to continue to fund the brownfield. And certainly, at these levels, we'll remain active in the repurchase program.

Operator

Your next question from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

Scott Deuschle

Tony, can you provide an update on where the backlog stands today relative to the start of the calendar year?

Tony Thene

Without giving a specific number, Scott, it is continuing to increase. Across all our end use markets.

Scott Deuschle

And then have you placed much of the brownfield capacity on contract at this point? Or are you still waiting to contract that out?

Tony Thene

Well, we don't contract out specific pieces of equipment. So if you look at the demand profile going forward, that volume will be absorbed immediately as it comes online.

Scott Deuschle

Okay. And then.

Tony Thene

It will be absorbed by our current -- sorry, will be absorbed by our current LTAs, right? All of our LTAs, they'll be wanting more material. So -- that's not -- I don't contract out specific equipment to specific customers.

Scott Deuschle

Right. Okay. And then I guess maybe on that point, can you comment on the share position that you've been securing on new aerospace LTAs and how that share position is or is not changing relative to the contracts that they are replacing and renewing.

Tony Thene

Well, I can tell you this, all of them are higher. Every 1 of the customers that we're dealing with, and we just completed 2 aerospace, significant aerospace LTAs this past quarter, the first quarter, and every customer to achieve once more material.

Scott Deuschle

Is the share percentage higher? Or is the volume commitment is higher?

Tony Thene

Well, I don't know which 1 comes first, right? I mean the volume is higher, right? There's only a couple of players in the market, and they're going to need all that material. So I mean the volume is significantly higher. The shares are probably going to remain pretty well the same. There's not a share gain battle going on.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Josh Sullivan with Jones Trading.

Joshua Sullivan

The structural distribution market, what's your sense of their inventory levels? Are there any metrics you can share with us relative to current or projected build rates? Just trying to get a sense of as you see this order flow, what their restocking cycle kind of looks like from your perspective here.

Tony Thene

Well, Josh, I would tell you this that the majority, if not all of the customers in that submarket are reporting decreasing inventories and that aligns then very -- now all of them will be at different points in time. I'm not suggesting that every customer is the same. But they're, for the most part, all reporting decreasing inventories, and that is the direct correlation to seeing the increased bookings.

I think the good news is that those bookings are going to have to continue to increase significantly, as I said in my remarks. There is no choice when it comes to that. So I think going forward over the next couple of quarters are very positive outlook when it comes to those 2 submarkets.

Joshua Sullivan

And I guess on another set mark on the defense market, just given the impetus to restock various inventories. And I think you had talked a little bit about immersion demand. But what does that more urgent order flow look like near term?

Tony Thene

Well, I was not being I was not exaggerating when I said that I thought there would be a rush of material orders, once there's some type of clarity around the budget. And I say that because of the discussions that we have with the Department of War, whether that be with the Navy, the Air Force, Army, that demand is significant.

The real issue is that the Department of Ward doesn't place orders. There's multiple companies in the supply chain that placed those orders and they don't have that funds flow to be able to do it. There's not one person in the defense supply chain that doesn't believe they should be placing orders right now. but the way that the budget works, that's just not possible for them to do right now.

Once that clears up, I think saying that there will be a rush on orders will be an understatement.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Bennett Moore with JPMorgan.

Bennett Moore

I wanted to -- it's great to see the bookings continue to move in the right direction. I appreciate your comment around incremental confidence in the '27 guide, but I'm just hoping you could frame looking specifically at structural activity and some of the dislocation on the defense side how do these compare relative to the assumptions you have in that '27 guide?

Tony Thene

Yes, Ben, I will say it this way. based on that FY '27 guide, I believe that there is upside in volume, productivity and pricing versus the assumptions that we used when we gave that guidance 3 months ago.

Bennett Moore

All right. Understood. And then a quick housekeeping, if I could. Just on the working capital, the use was a bit bigger than we expected. I see the guide for free cash flow was maintained. So just wondering if this is largely a function of the planned outage or if there's anything else we should consider looking ahead?

Timothy Lain

Ben, this is Tim Lain. I think it's more of a function of timing. So we did build some inventory as we progress through the year, we've got more available days in the back half of the year. It's a historical trend. We'll burn that inventory off. So as we progress through the year, we should see cash flow continue to accelerate CapEx might be a little bit higher in the second half as we ramp up and trying to finish the project later this year.

But in general, based on the guidance we gave, the cash has to accelerate here in Q2 and then even more in the second half.

Operator

Your next question from the line of David Strauss with Wells Fargo.

David Strauss

Tony, any comment kind of the volume versus price algorithm that came through in the Q1 revenue kind of in total and more specifically on the aero side?

Tony Thene

Well, I can tell you that price continues to increase quarter-over-quarter, the LTAs that we just signed, higher price -- we've got one that sits right now agreement in principle, higher price. We're working on a couple of other major ones as we speak. Both will be higher priced than before.

I think it's -- David, it's illogical to think that the price would be lower. I mean, demand is accelerating, not declining and there's no more capacity coming online other than our brownfield a couple of others that there's no way that we'll keep up with that. So the pricing story seems pretty straightforward to me.

David Strauss

Okay. Yes. I mean I was just looking, if you kind of took the overall kind of revenue growth ex surcharge, was it 2/3 volume, 1/3 price, or any -- in terms of the upside year-over-year there? Any sort of color there?

Tony Thene

No, no. I see what you're saying. I mean obviously, we stopped giving volume this quarter. So I'm not going to then start giving it on the Q&A. But also, you think that you got a Q1 with less operating days, right? versus Q4, which is usually your biggest one.

But I don't have a volume problem or a volume challenge. I mean, we're running, in many cases, the majority of our equipment as full as we can. So I don't have a volume problem. Now the issue that you have, David, is that volume isn't generic, and it's not 100% fungible, right? So there are different products that use different pieces of the plant capacity, having defense be a bit light, maybe the word a bit light isn't the right word, being light, that causes some challenges for us because we have to move some things around. That's some -- that's volume from the defense side that we would have run. Now we're not, right?

So we moved some things around. So that could be some give and take, based on what we decide to run there. But in totality, the volume is going to could be there. And it's even going to be stronger as we get out over the next couple of quarters.

David Strauss

Okay. And maybe any comments on medical and energy. Those end markets, I think you had talked the last call, it seemed like you were a bit optimistic that we'll start to see improvement kind of in the those categories? What's the -- kind of what did you see in Q1? And how are you thinking about those to end markets from here?

Tony Thene

Yes. I mean, thanks for the question. Sometimes we forget about that. Medical is going to continue to perform for us. I mean I should say, not continue to perform, continue to increase, it's really one specific subset inside of medical that has lagged a bit. Procedures are up.

We make products that provide our customers a solution that they can't get anywhere else. So I think that's -- we'll see that continue to increase over the next couple of quarters. I'm not overly worried with medical, and it's not driving down my overall performance. Energy interesting, small piece of my overall revenue, but certainly on the IGT side has been very strong.

And I would anticipate that to remain strong going forward. We have a very small oil and gas business even, David, that's been relatively weak, I would say, that we see coming back a little bit here now in this quarter and the next couple of quarters.

So overall, for those 2 markets in total, again, much smaller than aerospace, but both, I would say, with some positive tailwinds.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your next question from the line of Andre Madrid with U.S. Bancorp, BTIG. Please go ahead.

Andre Madrid

I don't know what happened there, but I appreciate the response to the first question. I guess I want to follow up on that by maybe asking a bit more about LTA mix. I know it seems like you guys might have resigned some new ones recently. Just should we be expecting the LTA mix to kind of start trending upward again, locking in some favorable pricing? Or how should we be thinking about that?

Tony Thene

Let me make sure I understand your question. What do you mean by when you say the LTA trend entering...

Andre Madrid

Like the mix of business that's driven through LTAs, do you expect that to continue to grow through the end of the decade? Or are you guys like starting to kind of lock in some more favorable pricing? Or is it going to kind of stay where it's at for the time being?

Tony Thene

Yes. So a couple of questions in there. Of course, the pricing is going to be higher, Andre. As I said earlier, it would be illogical for it not to be in the current environment. But from a total percent of our total portfolio, I would say it's going to be relatively the same, right? The volume is increasing. And the LTAs that we are renewing are primarily with existing customers. The majority of our aerospace business is under LTA now.

Andre Madrid

Yes, yes. No, that's clear. No, I appreciate that. And then I guess if I could just squeeze one more in. I mean looking specifically at the engine aftermarket, I know you talked about it already a little bit, but there has been some concern, broadly speaking, across commercial aero, on the effect of maybe higher fuel prices. It doesn't seem like some of your peers and downstream customers have been seeing it affecting demand yet. -- to be the same case for you. But I guess, just what specifically are you seeing in engine aftermarket that might inspire some more confidence that demand will persist.

Tony Thene

Well, we've never seen a drop off of it. So I understand some of that negative sentiment out there. We have not seen it, and we have not heard that from any of our customers.

Operator

Your next question from Chuck Minervino with Susquehanna.

Charles Minervino

I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on your comments that you have some actions and projects you're working on that could exceed the operating income targets for fiscal '27 and 2029. So I was just wondering if you could provide a little bit more detail on some of the levers you could pull there to maybe unlock some of that.

Tony Thene

Welcome, Chuck. I think about the 3 big buckets. Number one, volume, I think, has the opportunity to be higher than what we thought it would be a quarter ago, just because of the ordering patterns. We just talked about the pent-up demand in defense, that is a balloon that is ready to bust, right? I mean the demand is increasing and increasing and the orders aren't there. So I think that's going to be a significant or could be a significant tailwind from a volume standpoint and then across the rest of the aerospace supply chain, we know customers have told us, they are ordering today at a rate that doesn't even support the current build rates for Boeing and Airbus.

So we know that's going to have to come back and we sense that, that will be in the near term. So I think volume can be an upside. What we've seen with our current work now in LTAs, the pricing potentially can be an upside as well. And then on productivity, yes, there's multiple areas that we continue to drive productivity into our use of AI in many cases, and we've been able to unlock faster and, I would say, a greater quantity than we had originally planned.

So all 3 of those buckets, Chuck, are going to contribute to us potentially beating that FY '27 guidance. And remember, I mean, it doesn't take a huge percentage increase, for example, in price or in volume to exceed that guidance. So it's all -- it's not easy, but it's all doable.

Charles Minervino

Got it. And if I could just ask one more. Could you talk a little bit about your kind of outlook on margins in SAO, maybe this year, but also kind of beyond this year and where some of the levers may be to expand margins in that segment.

Tony Thene

Yes, it's a good question. And it's almost -- I can give you the same answer as I gave to you about how do you increase overachieve on FY '27, right? The margins are going to be driven by increased volume, pricing, we believe, is a tailwind and then also productivity. So we'll be working all 3 of those, right, as you're able to run your plant at higher and higher utilization levels and find more and more output available to you, that's a direct uplift to the margin. So -- we have to be careful. -- everybody.

Obviously, a lot of concern over going down 0.1 percentage point in SAO in a quarter that they have significant preventive maintenance and less operating days. I'll have a hard time understanding that one. So you will have some of that variability quarter-to-quarter. But if you look over the long term, certainly, the opportunity for us to continue to increase SAO margins is clearly there.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to John Hewitt for closing remarks.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today for our fiscal year 2027 first quarter conference call. Have a great rest of your day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.