特斯拉 (TSLA) 2026 年第三季財報電話會議：FSD、Robotaxi 與 Optimus 產能提升

特斯拉 (Tesla) 2026 年第三季法說會重點關注受限於產能的車輛需求、FSD 採用率提升、Robotaxi 的快速擴充，以及對 Optimus、儲能與半導體製造的持續投資。

重點摘要

• 受惠於亞太地區交付比重提升，扣除法規碳權後的汽車毛利率季增至 18.1%（前一季為 16.3%）。
• 特斯拉連續第二個季度報告車輛交付量約為 408,000 輛，且第三季結束時積壓訂單達到四年來新高。管理層表示，交付量主要受到產能限制。
• 北美交付的車輛中有超過 75% 在交付時訂閱了付費版 FSD，比第二季增加約 20%。特斯拉全球付費 FSD 客戶已超過 170 萬人，其中訂閱制佔比首次達到 50%。
• 儲能部署量達到 13.7 GWh，為特斯拉單季歷史次高。儲能毛利率由 20.4% 升至 33.1%，部分反映了關稅退款與保固相關的費用補償。
• 本季無人監督的 Robotaxi 行駛里程成長八倍，週成長率達雙位數。管理層預期 Robotaxi 的營收與獲利能力將在 2027 年第二季顯現，並可能在 2027 年第三季或第四季大幅貢獻。
• 特斯拉本季結束時擁有 15 億美元的正向自由現金流，以及超過 450 億美元的現金與投資。公司將 2026 年資本支出展望上調至約 200 億美元。

重要財務數據

業務與營運績效

汽車與 FSD

特斯拉表示，車輛需求超過產能，且所有工廠均以創紀錄的速率營運。公司正提升整個製造網路的產量，不過管理層警告，供應鏈、製造流程與交付物流需要時間協調一致。

Model Y 在多個市場創下交付紀錄。根據特斯拉的初步數據，它是歐洲最暢銷的純電動車，也是南韓最暢銷的乘用車。特斯拉在澳洲、日本和台灣也回報了新紀錄。

管理層將 FSD 列為車輛需求的主要驅動力。全球付費 FSD 客戶已超過 170 萬，訂閱制佔整體付費客戶群的 50%。特斯拉也在開發自家基於 AI 的地圖與導航架構，預計初步功能將在 V15 軟體版本中推出。

特斯拉繼續尋求更廣泛的 FSD 監管批准。管理層表示已獲得多個歐洲國家的批准，並希望在幾個月內獲得全歐盟的批准，同時強調監管時程不在公司掌控之中。公司也正在與中國監管機構合作。

Robotaxi 與 Cybercab

Robotaxi 營運規模持續擴大，第三季累計無人監督行駛里程成長八倍，整個季度的週里程數均保持雙位數成長。馬斯克表示，奧斯汀的 Cybercab 車隊自大約一個月前上線以來，規模已擴大十倍。

特斯拉計劃下一步在達拉斯推出 Cybercab，並擴展至其他城市。管理層預期隨著軟體驗證推進，將實現 24/7 全天候營運、更高車速的路段以及更廣泛的天候覆蓋。公司表示技術仍是近期瓶頸，而法規監管可能在 2027 年第一季或第二季成為較大的瓶頸。

特斯拉預計部分車主擁有的 Model Y 車輛將在 2027 年第二季左右有資格加入 Robotaxi 車隊。Cybercab 對客戶的交付目標是在 2026 年底前有限度開始，不過馬斯克表示，大多數 Cybercab 預計仍將由特斯拉持有，並以運輸即服務 (TaaS) 模式營運。

Cybercab 生產線標示的年產能超過 12.5 萬輛。特斯拉表示，該車款比以往任何特斯拉車款減少了 50% 的零件，且實際產線產能顯著高於目前標示的速率。生產進度正與 Robotaxi 網路的需求進行匹配。

儲能

特斯拉在第三季部署了 13.7 GWh 的儲能系統。管理層表示，2027 年幾乎所有的 Megapack 產能均已售罄，且資料中心的需求依然特別強勁。

儲能毛利率達到 33.1%，不過季增部分包含關稅退款，以及與供應商補償特定電池成本相關的保固調整。特斯拉預計隨著產能擴大，平均售價將會更高，毛利率亦會進一步改善。

Optimus

特斯拉已在其弗里蒙特 (Fremont) 高產量生產線上開始 Optimus 的早期生產。針對年產能約 100 萬台所設計的產線設備大部分已安裝完畢，但馬斯克表示，達到每週 20,000 台的年化產能速率可能至少需要一年甚至更長時間。

管理層預計 AI 架構、機電設計、可靠性與營運壽命需求將在 2027 年底左右獲得解決。最初的外部部署預計將專注於可受益於連續作業的工業、高危險性及重複性任務。

特斯拉計劃視執行情況，於 2027 年 4 月左右將其 AI5 晶片整合至 Optimus。公司也在建置基於人類示範、模擬與真實世界自我對弈的 Optimus 訓練系統。特斯拉預計需要約 10,000 至 20,000 台機器人來建立必要的訓練資料飛輪。

機器人手部仍是難度最高的硬體挑戰，因為它必須兼具耐用性、感測器以及處理精細物件的能力。特斯拉正在改進這些設計，同時發展供應鏈並在奧斯汀建造額外的 Optimus 製造產能。

Terafab 與製造擴充

特斯拉位於奧斯汀的研究半導體晶圓廠正朝向 2027 年上半年進行設備調試進展。管理層目標是在 2027 年 5 月或 6 月左右產出首顆測試晶片。公司期望在 2028 年第三季左右量產可用晶片，不過馬斯克隨後表示，真正的量產將於 2028 年底開始。

馬斯克表示，到 2028 年初，Terafab 將需要數百億美元的資本設備投資，長期而言總投資額可能超過 1,000 億美元。特斯拉與 SpaceX 之間的支出分配尚未確定。

特斯拉繼續以 2030 年左右實現年產約 500 萬輛車為目標。公司正於德州量產 Cybercab、擴建柏林工廠，並開始在新的 Semi 工廠進行生產。

管理層展望

• 特斯拉將 2026 年資本支出展望修正為約 200 億美元，並計劃主要利用營運現金流支付該項支出。
• 在開發中的產品實現商業化之前，營運費用預計將持續上升。目前的支出包含額外的算力、晶片開發，以及 Optimus、Megapack 3 與其他專案的預量產成本。
• 隨著特斯拉增加 Robotaxi 車輛、建設 Optimus 與儲能製造產能、購買 AI 計算基礎設施以及開發 Terafab，預計未來幾年的資本支出將會擴大。
• 管理層預期 Robotaxi 的營收與獲利能力將在 2027 年第二季顯現，並可能在 2027 年第三季或第四季大幅貢獻。
• 特斯拉看到了朝向每付費英哩 0.30 美元之 Robotaxi 營運成本目標邁進的路徑，但管理層確認該業務尚未達到該水平。
• 管理層預期在 2027 年底左右向外部客戶交付 Optimus，但這取決於硬體、軟體、可靠性及量產規模的進展。

風險與關注領域

• 更廣泛的 FSD 與 Robotaxi 部署取決於歐洲、中國及其他市場的監管批准，其時程不在特斯拉的掌控之中。
• Robotaxi 的擴充仍需要針對夜間營運、高速公路、更高車速以及額外天候條件進行軟體改進。特斯拉表示，其營運原則是避免在仍存在任何重大安全風險的地方進行部署。
• Optimus 的生產面臨複雜的全球供應鏈、持續的設計變更，以及涉及 AI 架構、機器人手部、耐用性與產品可靠性等未解決的挑戰。
• 大宗商品價格上漲與利率變化正在推升汽車成本。特斯拉已調整車輛融資方案，以抵銷部分壓力。
• 第三季儲能毛利率的改善部分得益於關稅退款與保固相關補償，這些因素可能無法代表潛在的營運績效。
• Terafab 需要龐大資金，而特斯拉與 SpaceX 之間的資金分攤仍未解決。

分析師問答集錦

分析師聚焦於競爭對手是否會對 FSD 定價施加壓力。特斯拉認為，在罕見的極端狀況 (edge cases) 下實現可靠的全自動駕駛，難度遠高於製作有限度的演示。管理層表示，競爭對手在未來幾年中將很難跟上無人監督 FSD 的廣泛釋出。

關於 FSD 的經濟效益，有分析師估算其年經常性收入 (ARR) 已接近 10 億美元。財務長 Vaibhav Taneja 表示該數據正確，並指出隨著業務擴大，特斯拉將揭露更多營收、留存率與流失率等指標。

管理層表示，Robotaxi 的成長反映了多年來在神經網路與 V15 軟體堆疊上的投資。特斯拉預計隨時間推移，在製造複雜度較低且無司機成本優勢的支持下，Cybercab 將佔其 Robotaxi 車隊的大多數。

在 Optimus 方面，管理層強調訓練、硬體精進、供應鏈開發與工廠建設正在同步進行。公司預計早期商業需求將來自尋求危險或重複性工作自動化的工業客戶。

法說會全文逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Travis Axelrod

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's Third Quarter 2026 Q&A Webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vaibhav Taneja and a number of other executives. Our Q3 results were announced at about 3:00 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast.

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC. [Operator Instructions] Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon?

Elon Musk

Thank you. So the third quarter was very strong, and I'd like to give a big congratulations to the whole Tesla team for working hard to make it happen. Domestic growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding our production by a significant margin. And obviously, we're going to be ramping, and we are ramping production meaningfully. The biggest driver for demand is Full Self-Driving. And today, there's really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy.

And to be clear, we are producing and delivering as many cars as we can, and we're pushing very hard for FSD approval in additional markets. We're now approved in many countries in Europe, and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1. But obviously, that's not the time frame we control, but we do anticipate being fully approved in throughout Europe and many other countries.

We also began production of the Tesla Semi truck in Q3 and did the new roaster demo, which was, I think, one of the most exciting events. I mean, arguably, the coolest demo of any product ever and that's a testament to amazing work by the Tesla [ Basic ] teams. So we've also been like laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. The -- we're, I think, aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030 and that's -- I think we've got a good shot of achieving that goal.

And yes. So energy demand is very strong. We're actually almost sold out of all mega packs for 2027, and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand. We also expect gross margins on that to increase meaningfully. So not [indiscernible] after many years of sort of grind and things being fairly flat. I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth.

Regarding robotaxi, we're seeing the robotaxi miles driven -- fully autonomous miles driven scale exponentially, meaning scaling very rapidly. And it would be hard to overstate at this point. It really is an extremely fast week-over-week growth in autonomous miles. And I don't think there's any company in the world that can match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The Cybercab [ legion Austin ] for example, has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago. And the cumulative [indiscernible] is really -- when I look at the weekly chart, it's wow. I mean it looks like [indiscernible] but basically is growing very fast.

And if I recommend if you want to try it out, coming to Austin and you'll see Cybercabs in use at scale in Austin. As I think a lot of people saw with the Austin study limits concert recently. So the -- so this is really going to a very good place.

And regarding Optimus, we've started like what I call early production on our high-volume line in Fremont. Now I want to elaborate on this point because the -- and I have said this before that the growth of Optimus, it's an S-curve, but the initial part of the S-curve is -- has a shallow slope and is somewhat bumpy because it is such a radically new product. So the way to think about it is there's like 10,000 things that have to go right for production of the robot, and it will move as fast as the slowest lease lucky of the 10,000. But we do have the vast majority of a 1 million unit per line -- production line landed in Fremont right now. But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate to get to 20,000 units a week.

So this is just a fundamentally because there's still parts of the design that are changing. Like a lot of people ask me about Optimus. That's why I think I've got to kind of sort of belabor at this point because if people aren't sort of understand like new technology that well or volume production of complex new hardware that will it sort of seems like we can't just make a whole bunch of these things [indiscernible] and send them out. And that's like, no, you've got to basically build up an entire gigantic global supply chain and have domestically a very, very big factory, and everything's got to work. And there's still some things we need to tweak about the design because you need to deliver a robot that is safe and reliable and has long duration. So it can't like wear out after a month.

And there's still quite a lot of work to do with regard to the AI and the robot for it to be truly useful for open-ended tasks. But like I said, if -- I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design and the reliability and duration -- usage duration like the usage life of the robot I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla. And I remain convinced that Optimus will be the biggest product on earth and humanoid robots in general will be the biggest product in Earth.

So it's Optimus very big deal, but I don't want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, and it's about a year or so. That will take us to get through all that stuff. But to the best of my knowledge, there is no one that is even close to Tesla with respect to a general purpose humanoid robot.

Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year. And hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip, just to see if we can make any [ capital ] around May or June. So that's, I think, pretty exciting. And then we -- our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.

So and as I said publicly on X, the Terafab, I think, will be the most valuable building in the world. And we'll probably have an economic value that were placed in the top 20 of countries. So it's an epic project. And this will be an incredibly important asset, if not necessary asset in order to scale, especially Optimus. As we can address bottlenecks in semiconductors, whether it's memory packaging logic or whatever the case may be.

With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday, tap-dancing through minefield there. And yes, that's it. In conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics road map. There's a lot of incredibly awesome stuff coming, and I'd like to once again thank the Tesla team for their strong execution and all of our supporters for joining us on this journey.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thanks very much, Elon. And Vaibhav has opening remarks as well. Vaibhav?

Vaibhav Taneja

Thanks, Travis. We continued our progress on a lot of fronts in Q3. Elon already covered a lot of them. Additionally, which I'd like to add is we also started deliveries of [ Megapacks ] with our in-house LFP batteries, and for the first time, 2 consecutive quarters of vehicle deliveries of [ 408,000 ].

On the automotive business, we exited the quarter with our highest backlog in 4 years with deliveries constrained primarily by production. We are therefore focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. While we are actively working to increase production it does take some time to get every aspect dialed in from supply chain to manufacturing to delivery logistics. The [ Model Y ] continued to outperform in the quarter and set delivery records in several key markets. Based on the preliminary data, which we've gathered, we believe that it was the #1 selling BEV in Europe and the #1 selling center car in South Korea. We've also set new records in key markets, including Australia, Japan and Taiwan.

As Elon said, FSD continues to be the key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for paid subscription at the time of delivery which is approximately 20% higher than Q2. Overall, the FSD attached rate continued to improve, reaching over 1.7 million paid customers globally, of which for the first time, 50% is based on subscriptions. Given the strength of FSD in the U.S., we are taking extra steps to sell certain cars in Europe with some benefits to try and get more fleet out there before a broader FSD approval is update.

On automotive margins, excluding credits, increased sequentially from 16.3% to 18.1%. The improvement in margins is driven by a higher mix of deliveries in APAC. While commodity price increases and interest rate changes continue to add to our costs and create further headwinds, we have adjusted the vehicle financing programs to partially offset for such costs.

On the energy business, we had our second best quarter of deployments of 13.7 gigawatt hour of energy storage. Energy gross margins improved from [ 20.4% ] to 33.1%. The sequential margin improvement is primarily attributed to tariff refunds recognized in the quarter and warranty true-downs resulting from alignment with our vendor on certain cell-related costs to be reimbursed by them. As Elon said, the business is witnessing extreme demand from data centers, and we are doing our best to increase production. And accordingly, we'll see improvements in ASP and further improvements in margins as we move forward.

Services and other margins improved sequentially from 14.1% to 15.9%, an all-time high. This was the result of strength across service -- across several of the businesses in services and other, including supercharging and insurance. The robotaxi business, which is part of services and others continue to grow with the launch of Cybercab rights in Austin. Accumulative unsupervised miles 8x in the quarter, and we had weekly double-digit growth throughout the quarter. We're taking all the learnings from our Austin expansion to help us prepare for broader Cybercab launch in other markets. Our priority is progressing the density and expansion of the network through vehicles that provide the best experience like the Cybercab. We will also continue to augment the fleet with other variants over time to address the terrestrial transportation needs of the total population.

I'd like to stress that what we are trying to do is literally take over every part of the [ STL ] transportation, not just getting people -- we're starting with getting people from one place to the other, but we want to basically own this transportation of any kind on [indiscernible].

We are in a huge investment cycle to set us up for the future. Therefore, as previously guided, operating expenses continue to increase sequentially. Most of the increase came from significant research and development-related activities, including [ SA ] development costs such as depreciation from additional compute, chip development and preproduction ramp costs for new products like the Optimus, [ Megapack 3 ] and [ Samatra ]. This trend of growing OpEx would continue until we commercialize these new products.

Net income was impacted from a mark-to-market reduction of our SpaceX holding of $142 million, which was offset by a Bitcoin mark-to-market gain of approximately $290 million. We continued our efforts to manage cash efficiently and responsibly. We ended the quarter with positive free cash flow [ of ] $1.5 billion and an overall cash and investment balance of over $45 billion. We're revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year as a result of managing our capital deployment efficiently and plan to fund it primarily from our cash flows from operations.

Additionally, during the quarter, we secured capacity to borrow up to $30 billion to support the expected growth in CapEx. Our confidence in the cash generation capacity of our business and the investments we are making grow our belief to secure shorter-term financing. We don't plan to make any draws under any of the new facilities in this calendar year. The money that we received from our -- from the tariff refunds is being reinvested to expand production capacity in the U.S. I'd like to stress on this that we like to do a lot of hard core, real grunt work to get production facilities up and running. And so our CapEx for the next few years would continue to expand as we add more robotaxi fleet, we expand our production capacity for Optimus, install manufacturing capacity for [ solar ], purchase additional [ SI ] compute infrastructure and build a semiconductor fab. This strategy will position the company for the next era of growth and disrupt many existing markets while creating new ones.

This is by far the most exciting time to be at Tesla. The foundation being around autonomy, robotics and energy is setting us up for an extremely bright future. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors and suppliers for their confidence in us on this journey.

Travis Axelrod

Fantastic. Thank you, Vaibhav. Now we're going to go to questions from Say.com. The first question is, how does the Optimus fleet scale past Austin? And what's the regulatory path outside Texas, given it's open seats review. Ashok, do you want to take that?

Ashok Elluswamy

Yes, Ashok here. First of all, we run Cybercab this quarter, which is very exciting. We achieved that by mostly learning from data from the other vehicle platforms, for example, Model Y, Model 3, et cetera, all of the data help make the Cybercab without requiring a ridiculous amount of vehicles to produce the data. So we are seeing very good scaling in terms of Cybercabs AI capabilities. We launched in Austin, but that's only because we had some caps and we want to [indiscernible] Austin with Cybercabs everywhere. But there's no fundamental reason that we are limited to Austin. In fact, next month, we'll be launching in Dallas and then the same software just scale to lots of other cities along with the Model Y robotaxis.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thanks very much. The next question is, what are your thoughts on crowdsourcing training data for Optimus versus your internal Optimus Academy approach? Is data currently the primary bottleneck? I think you covered this quite a bit, but any other color there?

Elon Musk

Mostly I talked about this already, but -- it's not crowdsourcing is not the issue for Optimus. There's a lot of things we have to get right about the AI architecture that we're still working on. We're making good progress, but that needs to be sorted out. And really, in order for Optimus to get the training data we need. We actually need to make a lot of optimize. So we need to make, I think, on the order of 10,000 or 20,000 bots and then have them do self-play and we're building up an Optimus Academy where Optimus can practice doing a very wide range of tasks. And then we can use that data in sort of a flywheel to make it better and better at these various tasks.

A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don't have this vast leader cars from which we can gather training data. So with Optimus we have to bootstrap it by making the robots and having them do self play, which is really how a human leans to navigate the world. It's -- that's -- you can see this one, you have a toddler and they grow up and they initially sort of wobbly and they don't know how to do things and they -- eventually, they don't wipe their own [indiscernible], which is a milestone. [indiscernible] has had kids knows. And then they learn to read and do all those things and be able to do these things. And they learn this by playing. And we actually need Optimus to play at scale in order to have it be really good at tasks in the real world.

And Ashok, you may want to add to that.

Ashok Elluswamy

Yes. Like I mentioned, Elon, for the car, we actually have the data from the cars embodiment itself, but for Optimus, there's no existed in fulfillment to get into and like make Optimus [indiscernible] or something like that. Like we have to learn -- Optimus has to learn by watching other people do task initially and then start practicing the task yourself. For example, you're going -- if you're watching a soccer game just because you're watching it doesn't mean you be good at soccer yourself. You've got to start practicing and get good at the game and learn from the bots on experience. And we are setting up this huge reimbursement learning cycle with initial base trading then from humans to bootstrap and then put it on Optimus and do a lot of self-play both in simulation and in the real world to learn on the embodiment of Optimus itself. I think we're pretty close to having very good results in this big loop.

Elon Musk

Yes. I think we're maybe ready to release like an Optimus video in a month or so. I want to make sure that like when we release this video that it's not like a canned demo that -- like when you see the robot humanoid robot demonstration. Some of them look very impressive, but they're not really using any kind of advanced AI or ASI. I mean there they're like preprogram deterministic tasks. And if you actually try to use that humanoid robot in the real world, you would have a lot of trouble and it wouldn't work basically.

So I want to release a video that's where it's Optimus doing things that are not preprogrammed. And I think that's -- that would be -- it's maybe a month or 2 for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing.

And then there's another milestone that's, I think, important we want to get to, which is to integrate our -- the Tesla [ AI5 ] chip into Optimus, which if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year. And that's a giant improvement in capability with an order of magnitude more sort of more operations per second, like it's in order of magnitude more compute AI5 versus AI4. And that will help Optimus a lot because the degrees of freedom that a humanoid that has to deal with far greater than what a car has to deal with. So it is a bit of a struggle to squeeze the -- everything needed to operate with a degree freedom of Optimus and the wide range of tasks. Can you think of like a humanoid robot is going to do like 1,000x more things than a car would do. Some very big number basically.

So I think the additional compute of AI5 will make a big difference, and that comes in, and hopefully, in volume around April of next year. And that's why I think like all the pieces like the refinements in the electromechanical dexterity making sure Optimus can operate for long periods of time without wearing out, getting the AI software right and the [ IF-chip ] integrated. All of these things kind of come together. That's why I think about a year from now is when it's something that would be -- that you could ship to customers. And it would also be reaching scale in production. So that's probably the right time to think about.

And in terms of the initial customers for Optimus, I think it probably would be things that are industrial applications at first. Things that like dangerous repetitive tasks, things that people really don't want to do. So -- and that you want done basically 24/7. So like around the clock stuff. That's going to be the highest value for Optimus in the beginning. As we scale production, of course, it would be something that people can buy for their home. But the initial high values will be -- the highest value use, I think, will be kind of heavy industry, dangerous tasks or things that may cause repetitive stress injuries. And that you weren't done 24/7. So that's the way to think about it.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you guys. The next question is very similar. It's about Optimus scaling, so we can go past that one.

Elon Musk

I just answer that one basically.

Travis Axelrod

And the next question is, when can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars? Ashok, did you want to kick that off?

Ashok Elluswamy

Yes. Like I mentioned earlier, the software for Cybercabs and Model Y is the same, like and pretty soon, we'll be able to release the same software as part of the V15 release to customers. The only additional requirement is to make sure that, for example, the customer model-wise can be part of the geofences and the fleet management that Tesla has for it to be fully autonomous. We suspect somewhere around Q2 next year is when we can turn on some of the first customer vehicles to be part of the robotaxi fleet.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you, Ashok. The next question is, when will the Cybercab be available for customer purchase/ownership? Lars, did you want to kick this one off?

Lars Moravy

Sure. Thanks, Travis. I think it builds a little bit of what Ashok just said. But in short, we're trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026. Obviously, we're producing an airline in Texas, but all of those are currently going to our own internal robotaxi fleet. And as Tesla grows, we'll mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers and Cybercab will be the first. And so as we start small this year, and we learned about all the things that Ashok mentioned about delivering an ownership and fleet management of autonomous vehicles and customer hands and continue to scale that.

Elon, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that?

Elon Musk

No. I mean Cybercab is primarily going to be something that is offered as like Transport as a Service, whereas our other cars would be more the cars that you want to own like the 3 in the [indiscernible], obviously. But the vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be essentially Tesla-owned and Transport as a Service.

Travis Axelrod

Great. The next 2 questions are quite similar around unit economic costs. The first one is on per paid robotaxi mile. And the second one is cost per Optimus unit. And we already covered the what are the first customer paying customer looks like. So VT, did you want to -- did you want to get into the unit economics question here?

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. So on the robotaxi side, the main geographies where we are operating, we're already seeing utilization improving and week by week, as Elon was talking about, we look at the miles and how many paid rights are happening. So are we at our goal of $0.30 today? No. But do we see a path to get to that? Very yes, we do. And it's all about scaling operations. And what you'll see over the next few months is that will -- today, Cybercab, which is the primary robotaxi product is available only in Austin. But we do plan to bring it out in some other cities before the end of this year. And as we add more Cybercabs, we are also learning from the operational experience of managing a fleet, pickup and drop off cleaning, all those things. So all those costs are being dialed in. And that's why, like I said before, we definitely see a path to get to our $0.30 target.

Travis Axelrod

And then did you want to cover the Optimus costs?

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. I mean I think Optimus cost internally, we are tracking pretty well in terms of how the design has matured. But it would be a little too early to say that we have got there because like Elon was saying, we're still making a lot of die nutritions. The good thing is when you look at it from a cost perspective, we're trending closer to where we would say our Cybercab costs would end up being.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much, Vaibhav. The next question is, when do you -- we've kind of already answered this. When do you anticipate Optimus will be generating revenue? So we covered that in a prior question. The next one is mapping for FSD continues to be a problem. The 3 biggest issues are recognizing proper speed limits, parking and typical routes. I understand you use various third-party maps, but why not use your own maps. Authorized trusted and verified Tesla owners to provide the input. Ashok, did you want to kick off here?

Ashok Elluswamy

Yes. Yes. You're really right that we shouldn't be depending on external people's maps. So we are building our own maps, but not like the same way as one more maps. We are building [indiscernible] architecture with essentially AI-based mapping and navigation. It's going to be super awesome. It's going to be integrated with voice, you can like talk to it, ask for different routes. It's going to learn your personalized preferences, plus also the fleet preferences. The collective intelligence of all the cars are going to flow into making the maps and navigation be super cool.

We'll start -- you'll see the start and [ endotrips ], already use this technology pretty soon as part of the V15 release. And over the next several months, it's just going to take over all of the navigation functions parking, destination handling. And just we'll know you better than you know yourself in some regard for the driving task, and I handle it fully.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you, Ashok. And then our last question is what is the current production rate at your for existing factories? Do you anticipate building new ones? Lars, do you want to kick that off?

Lars Moravy

Yes, sure. I think Vaibhav kind of touched a little bit on this in his opening remarks. And I'll say our factories are operating at record rates this quarter. And of course, they build at the rate at least like you process or component. And Vaibhav mentioned that we are actively managing all the aspects of production. As we've spoken in our past calls, we've made strategic investments globally to increase rates of our current factories over the last year plus and this quarter, we are starting to see that, and we expect that to continue in coming quarters as those investments come to fruition.

I mean on that, we've also are working to ramp Cybercab obviously, in [ Giga ] Texas and we applied for the proper permits to expand the factories in Berlin. And as also Elon mentioned, we just started our new semi factory in [indiscernible]. So in short, we are building new factories, yes and we're aiming to at that 5 million goal by 2030, as Elon said.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thank you very much. That's it for the Say.com questions. Now we will be going to analyst questions. As a reminder, as Elon said, we will not be addressing any questions today on a potential merger with SpaceX.

With that, the first question comes from Tom from RBC.

分析師問答

Gautam Narayan

Just on FSD. So the attach rate, I think, according to my math, is like 30% to 40% in North America on a paid basis. It's becoming a flywheel, as you said, for more car sales and the attach rate exceeds other automakers, subscription-based autonomy by a lot. I guess in a weird way, could you guys be a victim of your own success in seeing other carmakers noting the success and trying to aggressively come up with similar [ L2 plus ] type products, maybe partnering with NVIDIA or Qualcomm? And if that happens, could that be deflationary for FSD pricing?

Vaibhav Taneja

I think people take this thing very simply that you can ease if the software can't be solved. It's not because -- I mean, I'll let Ashok get into it, but basically, it's a very hard problem.

Ashok Elluswamy

It's super hard problem. Yes, it's easy to get to the first 90% and make like a cool looking demo, but when you get in the long tail of this problem, it's so long that people don't realize anyone with their same mind should not attempt to solve this problem. It's like so difficult and so long tail and especially to get to a safety point where you can price safety for millions of miles with no injuries and so on. That's going to be extremely hard. As we release unsupervised FSD to the broader customer fleet is just going to be -- I don't think anyone can like match it in several years.

Vaibhav Taneja

And one other thing which I'll say it wasn't clear that when especially in our showrooms here in the U.S., customers are now coming in and saying, can we get into an FSD drive? They're not asking for [ 3Y ] or cyber truck. They're saying, can we get an FSD drive? And that has become the key driver because what it does is it actually opens up a lot more flexibility for different parts of the population wherein they had issues driving conveniently before. Now they're getting their freedom back by being able to use FSD. And a lot of folks are just like -- I mean, it's a game changer. I mean if you haven't tried it, I keep saying it every time, if you do it, you won't be able to go back to driving any other car.

Gautam Narayan

Yes. Follow-up is similar to that question on China. I mean there, it seems like autonomy is like table stakes. Is it the same kind of answer this question one that they're not going to be able -- those carmakers aren't going to be able to develop similar products that you guys have had on FSD. Or do you see there that being definitely a different pricing dynamic?

Vaibhav Taneja

I mean, at the beginning, like definitely the leapfrog which we have in terms of this technology isn't there with any of the other Chinese OEMs today. And we're like we're working very diligently to try and get broader -- I mean, FSD approval in China. It is hard, but for certain cars, we have been able to have FSD operating. And whatever people have tried -- whoever has guided, they understand how much better it is as compared to any of the competition. In fact, I don't know if you've seen this, there have been some competitor CEOs who have come and done FSD drives here in the U.S. and they themselves have been blown up as to what FSD is capable of doing. So it is a similar answer.

And again, we're not taking it lightly. We're actively working with the regulators in China because I don't know if you saw this, but we did release our -- we've released our safety report on FSD before, but we've also released our unsupervised or robotaxi safety report. We just think this is the right way to get people into a safe environment because you know the amount of accidents which happened because of driver -- drivers not being alert and this is the only way we can ensure that there are less casualties in the world and any regulator who looks at the data, it would be very hard for them to refute it.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Our next question comes from Emmanuel from Wolfe.

Emmanuel Rosner

So on robotaxi, you've talked about sustaining double-digit week-over-week growth unsupervised miles. I'm curious if there's a way you can triangulate that for us into revenue and maybe profitability of the robotaxi business. If you sustain, let's say, 15% week-over-week growth in these miles, you'll probably cross 10 million miles by the end of the year. How many miles would you need to generate gross profit?

Vaibhav Taneja

I mean -- so I think Elon talked about this a little bit at the beginning that using exponential math, this would become a significant part of our revenue and profitability in '27.

Elon Musk

I would say it's not like going to move the needle this quarter. But if you say like maybe -- I think it saw us become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year.

Vaibhav Taneja

Exactly.

Emmanuel Rosner

Got it. And then if I think about it in terms of fleet size. So I think your Cybercab line capacity is listed at more than 125,000 units a year. Production just recently started. How do you expect the ramp-up curve to be on the Cybercab line?

Vaibhav Taneja

I mean, I'll kick it off, but then I'll also let Lars chime in. But I would give kudos to the engineering team. They have designed a product because -- not only do I talk to the engineers, I also talk to the manufacturing guys. They think this is one of the easiest product for them to scale in terms of manufacturing. So scaling would not be that much of a challenge. I think the key thing which we are trying to make sure is that we have all the regulatory approvals where we can start deploying the Cybercabs as fast as we can produce them. And again, Lars, feel free to chime in.

Lars Moravy

Yes, thanks Vaibhav. Appreciate the [indiscernible] the team definitely crushed it on the Cybercab design manufacturing. Just to your point, we have 50% less parts than any other vehicle we've ever built. So that's 50% less things to go wrong. We've definitely been bursting Cybercab line to see how fast we can run it. I think the listed capacity is more of a rate at which we're capable of running today, but the actual capacity that point vehicle line is significantly higher. Right now, we're building at the rate that the robotaxi service needs the vehicles. And I'll say Ashok [indiscernible] a bit of a race who's going to stay ahead. He's got exponential growth coming down the miles month-over-month, and we're going to look to meet that as well with the production.

Travis Axelrod

The next question is going to come from Andrew from Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Percoco

Great. So I want to start on your energy business. You're clearly seeing a lot of demand on the energy storage or Megapack side, and you've got some goals to bring on your own [ solar ] manufacturing, but I was just hoping to get a little bit more insight in terms of how you're thinking about Tesla's role in enabling both distributed power, but also distributed compute. I think last quarter, you alluded to a mega pod product. So just hoping to get a little bit more insight in terms of what you're envisioning there? And ultimately, how big this could be for Tesla.

Elon Musk

I think it's still early days on that front. We don't know the full extent of how -- what that will -- how that will unfold. I think we'll have a better sense for that probably in maybe end of Q1 or Q2 but it does have a lot of potential. It's just hard to say how much potential right now.

Andrew Percoco

Okay. Understood. And then maybe just a follow-up on robotaxi. It does seem like you've kind of hit an inflection point here and often over the last month or so since you launched the Cybercab. So would you generally say that the bottlenecks at this point to growth are more regulatory driven as you think about expanding into new geographies and that you've kind of gotten through most of the hurdles on the software side. Just kind of curious how you generally kind of categorize some of those growth hurdles in some of the incremental regions you're planning on scaling into over the next few months?

Vaibhav Taneja

I think the -- I mean, there are still certain software challenges, which we are still working through. Ashok talked about it. So maybe Ashok.

Ashok Elluswamy

I can chime in here, yes. For example, we are like initially a robotaxi service from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. in the next 10 p.m., 11:00 p.m., now it's going to be pretty soon 2 a.m. So we're probably expanding the availability of robotaxi and that is driven by the capability of the [ AA ] software. And we just want to make sure that there's not a single safety incident. That is our operating principle. And even if there's the slightest possible risk at all, we don't like take on the risk. And so we are very risk averse in that sense as we want 0 injuries or anything bad happening. And that is the driving principle and we will see that over the rest of this year, we'll unlock 24 cross 7 operations, go to higher-speed roads.

And we think all of that is necessary to sort of scale and offer a great product to a lot of users. And that's why we wanted to go through the breakfast of being multiple cities. We do 6 cities now. We are also doing the depth of like having a lot of vehicles in a single city, which is in Austin, and we'll expand to more weather conditions, day and night conditions, highways and high speeds and all of that will be done hopefully by the end of this year, at which point, you will see a lot more scaling outward cities being covered by robotaxi.

So it's not purely regulatory on the line that it is technology driven, but we do see that pretty quickly become regulatory perhaps in the Q1, Q2 time frames.

Travis Axelrod

Great. The next question is going to come from Edison from Deutsche Bank.

Xin Yu

Thank you for taking questions. First wanted to ask about Terafab. I know Elon, you mentioned that you had an aspirational goal of 2Q '28. Do you have a sense on how much capital needs to be invested to get there? And also, what kind of milestones would be able to look out for on the way there?

Elon Musk

Well, it's going to be some pretty significant capital. You know what -- it's certainly in the tens of billions for Terafab. Well, we've got to figure out like what the sort of relative split is between SpaceX and Tesla in terms of who pays for what a Terafab but it's not going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment up through early 2028. And -- and then it will be -- it will probably be north of $100 billion long term.

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. And I'll just add, the first set of equipment for the fab, which Tesla is building. We've actually already placed most of the orders. And that's why when Elon was talking about middle of next year, that is from the first fab, which the research fab.

Elon Musk

Yes. That's we're just figuring out how to work the equipment type of thing but real production would be late '28, which is lightning fast by fab centers.

Xin Yu

Understood. And then just a quick follow-up on Optimus. I know you mentioned that we could see a video soon and there's quite a bit of progress, but you're still making some refinements. I guess, just generally speaking, where do you see most of the design changes still happening going forward? Is it still the hand that's an issue? Anything you can call out there?

Elon Musk

Yes. It's mostly most of the difficult -- I mean [indiscernible], why don't you answer this question?

Unknown Executive

So hand is one of the most challenging hardware areas actually. Most of the electromechanical system, I would say, is relatively high confidence, meaning like that it has converted to something that works decently well. The hand is from an electrochemical point of view, more complicated than upgraders for the locomotion system, for example. Also, there are some bespoke years that are carrying a lot of burden for consumption and for reliability that we are developing still. And yes, this would be the most.

Elon Musk

Yes, it's mostly the hand. And just the kind of the fine-tuning of the hand design and the fingers, especially just -- it's a hard problem because humans have self-repair, like our hands repairers itself, but [indiscernible]. So you have to -- and our fingers are kind of squishy and have lots of sensors in our scan. It's hard to make a hand that is -- that can handle lots of wear and tear, but it's still squishy enough to pick up delicate objects and has all the sensors and doesn't damage the sensors when you do repeated actions. And there's a lot of little things that it realize actually one incredible thing the human hand is at the end of the day. So it's mostly from electrochemical standpoint the hands.

There are other things that are improving as well throughout the robot, but that's the main thing. And then as I mentioned, upgrading the intelligence -- the onboard intelligence of the robot with AI5, which is a big step change in intelligence that will help a lot with the capabilities of Optimus. So I've said before that like humanoid robots biggest product on earth and -- but its usefulness will be rough proximation a multiple of the electromechanical dexterity, the AI software and the AI chip hardware. And all 3 of those things are improving exponentially. I think we used that word a lot, but -- and the value is roughly those 3 things multiplied by each other. And then the Optimus robots will build the future Optimus robots so you have a recursive function. So when you have a recursive multiplicative exponential, things will really grow extremely fast. They may start from a small base, they're going to grow to crazy levels. mean I think at some point, there will be more humanoid robots on earth than there are humans.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Thanks so much. The next question comes from Alex from Bank of America.

Alexander Perry

I guess just first on robotaxi. So it looks like for robotaxi your pricing lower than competitor rideshare and other robotaxi players in most markets. Is that the plan to do longer term to take market share given some of your structural cost advantages?

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. I mean remember, when you're comparing -- you're comparing us with ride share, which has a driver in there and we don't. Plus we are manufacturing the car ourselves. So our cost basis overall is different. And I think I said it in my opening remarks and I'll say it again, just -- I don't want to be too repetive, but basically, our goal is to take over any kind of transportation.

Elon Musk

I mean I think we -- unless we're stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility, like if they're trying to protect the domestic industry. I think Tesla will end up being a majority of old passenger miles on earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely and you can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about this prediction.

Alexander Perry

Really helpful. And then just my follow-up question. I guess, just on the key metric here. So on supervised miles driven. So I think it grew in high teens, so good growth rate since late July. Is this still the expectation you'll continue to grow that at double-digit weekly rate through the balance of the year? And then what is really enabling that to the growth? It seems like you definitely had a comfort level in scaling much more rapidly. How much of that is Cybercab? How much of that is better safety validation with the latest version of FSD? And just on fleet composition, do you expect Cybercab to represent majority of the robotaxi fleet over time?

Unknown Executive

Yes. We will continue the scaling for the foreseeable future. We don't see any hurdles along the way. Obviously, there's work required, but we do see a clear path towards scaling to millions of vehicles over the next several months. This is happening due to like primarily the technology investments we have made over the last several years and also in V15 stack that we alluded to earlier this year. Like all of the foundations is like hard to see -- is the iceberg, people only see the tip of the iceberg. There's a ton of work that goes into it. And like now we're starting to see the payoff of all that work of like developing into a neural networks, learning from humans and so on, all of that is paying off.

So that's what you're seeing that -- you're seeing the reset many years of work. It didn't just like happen in the last several months. Yes and the same technology should scale to [indiscernible] of vehicles across all over like whenever we get allowed to operate.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Our next question is going to come from Pierre from New Street.

Pierre Ferragu

I just wanted to come back, like I'm very really fascinated by 75% of like U.S. car selling with [indiscernible]. The interesting thing is that if you look at the car, they probably generate on sale -- [indiscernible] like about [ $7,000 ] of gross profit. But then -- of course, FSD generates more than $1,000 a year. And so it does -- it makes like a minimum impact on numbers in the quarter the car is sold but over the lifetime of the car, it probably at least double the profit per car. And so the place where I'm doing -- want to get to is, am I looking at it the right way? And are you, at some point, going to disclose for us like the annual recurring revenues that FSD represents? And I did my own math, and I'm thinking it's probably now approaching $1 billion of [indiscernible] Is that the right order of magnitude?

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. I think the numbers which you shared is correct. And as it scales further, we will start sharing more metrics around not just the revenue but also other key metrics around it.

Pierre Ferragu

And as a quick follow-up, do you have like a good sense already? And do you tell us about like the retention rate? Like do how many people like 3 or 6 months down the line sticks to the monthly subscription. And if you see the percentage of drivers falling off?

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. I mean, like I said, we will share more metrics around churn rates and whatnot. But the reason we are not doing it at this stage is there are a lot of things which we are doing, especially with new countries being added, then we offer free trials. And one thing which I'd also like to make sure it's clear, when I say in North America that more than a 75% attach rate at the time of delivery this is like every car, which we're delivering terms with a month of FSD subscription. And still people are signing up, even though they have that free available.

Travis Axelrod

Great. Our next question is going to come from Colin at Oppenheimer.

Colin Rusch

Thanks so much guys. Elon can you talk about the strategy around ramping Optimus production? Just a little bit to start training even if the hands are fully baked with the final design. It seems like there's a lot that you could end up doing in terms of the training cycle and maturing some of the simulation technology even without perfected hands?

Elon Musk

Well, that's what we're doing is we're building robots that do not have affected hands, and we are making progress with Optimus training and ironing out all aspects of the supply chain and the production system. So that's -- we're doing all these things in parallel, like this giant production line in -- at our Fremont factory, massive supply chain and then fine-tuning the design and engineering simultaneously with the AI software. So all these things are happening simultaneously. And we're growing as fast as humanly possible here.

I don't think anyone's going to have -- and in fact, I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus when we go -- when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year.

Vaibhav Taneja

Yes. And you should know that not only the Fremont factory, we've also started constructing a factory here in Austin, which would be able to do a lot more robots as compared to the 3 month one. So going back to what Elon was saying, we're doing whatever we can. We're not stopping. We're just going at the fastest pace as we can.

Elon Musk

Yes. We're definitely, as I saying, [ Vegas ] betting on the come.

Colin Rusch

Awesome. And then in terms of the Cybercabs capacity availability, can you talk about how you're navigating that with the suppliers, obviously, seeing some deposits get put down on equipment and getting deliveries moving forward is a net positive on tariff. But are there some more aggressive things that you can do to start getting ready for the larger ramp now? And how should we think about that flowing through the CapEx budget?

Elon Musk

It's not a massive impact right now. I think our CapEx is actually it's actually ending up being a little lower than we anticipated. But we saw it become more meaningful next year and then that noticeable like in the tens of billions in '28.

Travis Axelrod

All right. We are coming about time here. We appreciate everyone's questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much, and goodbye.