Bowlero (LUCK) 2026財年第四季法說會：2027財年EBITDA指引與調降資本支出

重點總覽

• Bowlero 公布 2026 財年營收為 12.45 億美元，年增 4%，經調整後 EBITDA 為 3.33 億美元。
• 全年同店銷售額下降 0.2%，較 2025 財年改善 3.5 個百分點。若排除加州，同店銷售額則成長 0.9%。
• 第四季趨勢在 6 月大幅轉弱。同店銷售額在 4 月大致持平，5 月成長 2%，而 6 月因世界盃與 NBA 總決賽收視率提升而下滑 7%。
• 管理層預期 2027 財年經調整後 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元，同店銷售額成長率為 1% 至 3%。
• 2026 財年資本支出下降 19% 至 1.14 億美元。2027 財年預算為 9,000 萬美元，管理層的長期目標是在品牌重塑完成後將資本支出維持在 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的區間。
• 團體活動 (Events)、聯賽與水上樂園為主要成長重點。12 月活動的待處理訂單較去年同期高出 10%，而去年同期則為下降 30%。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

團體活動營收在 5 月與 6 月恢復正向同店成長，並在 7 月與 8 月維持成長態勢。管理層指出，自 2023 財年以來，該業務每年損失約 4,000 萬美元營收，因此其復甦對同店銷售展望至關重要。團體活動佔 12 月營收的 40% 左右。

Bowlero 於 7 月 1 日重組其團體活動平台。新的混合模式區分了大型企業與在地客戶，而客服中心則處理少於 12 人的派對。此舉旨在賦予銷售團隊更多能力進行主動拓客。

加州仍是表現最為弱勢的地區，2026 財年同店銷售額下降 4%，而公司其餘地區則成長約 1%。管理層更換了該區域的領導團隊，並正在重整該州的企業銷售組織。加州的復甦預計將高度依賴團體活動，但 2027 財年預測中尚未包含轉為正成長的假設。

在價格調漲及引進 Elite 尊榮季卡等級的帶動下，水上樂園人均消費成長了約 15% 至 20%。人事成本下降中個位數百分比。然而，寒冷潮濕的天氣減少了入場人數，尤以洛杉磯 Raging Waters 與芝加哥附近的 Raging Waves 最為明顯。

管理層目前將季卡部分視為天氣保險，並計劃提早開賣，同時平衡入場人數與定價。預計夏季水上樂園約 80% 的利潤將落在 9 月結算的季度（屬於 2027 財年）。

電話會議期間，保齡球人力成本每月比去年同期少約 100 萬美元。管理層預計，隨著公司加大對員工與獎勵方案的投資以支撐營收成長，該好處將會趨於溫和。

行銷支出從 1,700 萬美元增加到 3,000 萬美元，季度曝光量則從約 7,500 萬次增至 3.5 億次。管理層表示參與度低於預期，並計劃採用更嚴格的回報門檻。被稱為公司最大 IT 專案的新 CRM 系統預計將於 10 月推出。

管理層指引

鑑於總體經濟與天氣的不確定性，管理層認為經調整後 EBITDA 區間設定得較為保守。公司預期 6 月的同期比較將受惠於少了 2026 財年世界盃相關干擾，而 12 月季度將是重組後團體活動平台的重要測試。

Bowlero 繼續以 30% 至 32% 的長期經調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為目標。近期利潤率受到更高的行銷支出、系統投資以及水上樂園營運持續擴張的影響。

公司計劃在 2027 財年完成剩餘的 Lucky Strike 與 AMF 品牌重塑工作。一旦該週期結束，管理層預期年度資本支出將降至 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

風險與關注焦點

• 天氣仍是水上樂園營運波動的主要來源。管理層估計，在討論的期間內，天氣因素對樂園造成了約 300 萬至 500 萬美元的額外影響。
• 加州表現持續落後，其復甦部分取決於團體活動業務的持續改善。
• 行銷提高了知名度，但參與度不足，為未來的支出水平與回報帶來不確定性。
• 由於世界盃持續至 7 月 19 日，7 月同店銷售額仍維持低個位數百分比的下滑。截至電話會議時，8 月已接近持平，但尚未明確轉正。
• 2027 財年指引並未假設理想的天氣或加州的完全復甦。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，組合中約 9 億美元的營收來自 2022 年以前建立的據點，其單店 (four-wall) EBITDA 利潤率為 42%；而疫情後收購、新建或投資的據點則貢獻約 3 億美元營收，利潤率約為 30%。提升後者的營運表現是實現長期利潤率目標的核心。

公司預計在 2027 財年處分約 10 個據點，主要是上市後擴張時期收購的次要資產。據稱僅有兩到三個據點的 EBITDA 為負。資產處分所得可用於去槓桿化，且管理層目標是在 6 月前償還循環信貸 (revolver)。

併購將抱持順勢而為的態度，而非主動列為優先事項。管理層的重點放在現有據點組合的營運改善、有機 EBITDA 成長以及去槓桿化。

在算入附帶消費前，聯賽保齡球業務約創造 1.1 億至 1.2 億美元營收。由於聯賽業務表現優於其他產品線，Bowlero 正加大在球機穩定度、球道狀況及高品質球道油方面的投資。

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Bowlero Q4 2026 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Bobby Lavan, Chief Financial Officer. Bobby, please go ahead.

Bobby Lavan

Good morning to everyone on the call. This is Bobby Lavan, Bowlero's Chief Financial Officer. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Bowlero's fourth quarter 2026 earnings. Today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period ending June 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. Joining me on the call today is Thomas Shannon, our Founder and Chief Executive Officer.

I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward-looking statements about the company's performance. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore one should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements are also subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Additional information concerning factors could cause actual results to differ from those discussed in our forward-looking statements.

We should refer to the cautionary statements contained in our press release, as well as the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. Bowlero undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after today's call. Also during today's call, the company may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. The GAAP financial measure is most directly comparable to each non-GAAP financial measure discussed, and the reconciliation of the differences between each non-GAAP financial measure and the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found on the company's website.

I will now turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Shannon

Thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. Despite a weak consumer at the lower end of the K and general macro uncertainty, we finished fiscal 2026 with a same-store sales comp of -0.2%, a 3.5-point improvement over the prior year and our best comp performance since fiscal 2023. Total revenue grew 4% to $1.245 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, reflecting a year of deliberate investment in marketing and our water park platform, and in the technology and leadership that positioned us for fiscal 2027.

Had it not been for the World Cup and its record-breaking viewership and the conflict in the Middle East that drove consumer confidence to its lowest level in 70 years, our full-year comp would almost certainly have been positive. There are green shoots across the business, and they are broadening. Ex-California, the company comped up +0.9% for the year. Retail bowling and shoe revenue comped +2.9%. Leagues grew +3.6% and accelerated in each of the last 4 months. Food comped +8%. And events, 1 of our most important product lines, turned positive in May and June for the first time since 2024, and remained positive in July and August, its best stretch in years.

The fourth quarter started well. April was roughly flat, May swung to +2%, and we entered June with strong momentum. That momentum was disrupted by an extraordinary stretch of at-home sports viewership. On June 11, the most-watched World Cup in American television history kicked off on home soil for the first time in a generation. The July 19 World Cup final drew roughly 66 million viewers across platforms, the largest American television audience since the Super Bowl. Layered on top of that, the Knicks won their first NBA title in 53 years in the most-watched finals in 28 years, averaging more than 20 million viewers in 19 years in our largest market, with 33 million people watching the final game.

For 5 straight weeks, millions of consumers who would ordinarily be bowling on a Friday or Saturday night were watching sports from home. June comped -7% and pulled an otherwise positive quarter and year slightly into the negative. I want to be precise about what that was and what it was not. It was not a weakening consumer. As we have seen through every exogenous shock since I started this company, the consumer has a short memory and adjusts to new realities quickly. That is exactly what happened here. Our trends inflected the week after the final, and August is rebounding. It was a 1-time, 5-week programming event on home soil, and it does not repeat next summer.

California remains our weakest market, but it is trending better. We made meaningful upgrades to the operating team there, including replacing leadership, and we are overhauling our corporate sales organization in the state. As I outlined on our last call, the full earnings benefit of the cost actions we took beginning in mid-January would land in the fourth quarter, and that is exactly what happened. The second quarter's $6 million payroll overrun became a payroll tailwind in the fourth quarter and remained 1 in July.

We made significant advancements this year in analytics, pricing, leagues, and capital efficiency. And with AI, our data and insights into the business are accelerating, and our ability to optimize key functions like labor management. We reduced capital expenditures by 19% to $114 million from $141 million last year and $194 million 2 years ago. This is a reduction of $80 million in 2 years.

On marketing, not all of our spending delivered the ROI we expected. We doubled working media and gained significant awareness, but the creative did not generate enough intent. Going forward, our investments will be more targeted, more measurable, and held to a higher return threshold. In fiscal 2027, every marketing dollar needs to generate a return. Otherwise, we will consider reducing marketing as a percentage of revenue.

Water parks represented the largest operational change of our summer. A year ago, we directly managed 2 water parks. This summer, we directly managed 5, including Raging Waters Los Angeles, which we closed on in January for $45 million. We are in 5 really good markets with very strong positions. The largest water parks in North Carolina, Illinois, and California, and 2 very good parks in the Florida Panhandle. That is a step change in operating complexity, and the organization rose to it. Strategically, the season was about striking the right balance between price, attendance, and labor.

Across the water park portfolio, per capita spending is up double digits, and payroll is down mid-single digits as we staff to demand. Price and cost discipline held what weather took. And it is the same pattern the large regional park operators described in their calls this month. Attendance pressured by weather, per capita spending up, and the economics protected through revenue management. The weather impact was real and concentrated. Raging Waves, our 54-acre water park outside Chicago, saw attendance fall significantly against a June that ran cooler than normal with rainfall well above normal.

As I've said before, in this business, pricing has a lot less to do with demand than weather, and a water park cannot comp through a cold, wet summer month. We remain very bullish here. I described the water parks as a coiled spring. On a trailing 12-month basis through July, the water parks produced $56 million of revenue and $22 million of EBITDA, up from $23 million of revenue and $11 million of EBITDA in fiscal 2025. Roughly 80% of summer water park earnings land in our September quarter, which is in fiscal 2027.

The business is highly counter-cyclical and will only get better as we become more experienced operators in this business. The fixes for next season are simple. Sell season passes earlier to hedge out weather and further optimize price and admissions. We're very happy with our Boomers Parks, which are counter-seasonal, high-margin, and EBITDA positive in every period, delivering $11 million of EBITDA this year, nearly double the prior year.

Turning to guidance. For fiscal 2027, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $340 million to $360 million. We run a short-cycle business, and we do not give guidance blindly or optimistically. So we are deliberately guiding conservatively as we work through the year. Importantly, this range reflects prudence around the environment, not the trajectory of our plan. The consumer has already told us in August that they want what we sell, and the keys to this year will be events booking for December and a clean second half after more disturbances than we have ever seen historically.

Thank you. With that, let's turn it over to Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steven Wieczynski from Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

分析師問答

Steven Wieczynski

Tom or Bobby, if we think about your guidance for this year, if we look at where the assumptions around margins, you guys are forecasting margins somewhere, I think it's a 27% number versus the 30% long-term target you laid out in the presentation. So, as we think about fiscal 2027, wondering what might be weighing a little bit there on that margin version versus your long-term goal. And I know you called out maybe some marketing initiatives and some other things in there as well, but any color around the margin target for this year versus the long-term target would be helpful.

Bobby Lavan

Yes. So we've spent a lot of time on this topic, and we added a slide to our investor deck that will show you that your $900 million of revenue of the portfolio runs at a 42% four-wall EBITDA margin. And all of that's the pre-2022 properties. And then there is $300 million that runs at 30%. And that's everything that we've invested in, built, or acquired post-COVID. And when you look at the math there, when we get that $300 million up, you get back to the 30%.

I think the 32% is a little bit harder to achieve in a world where we've taken marketing from 1% to 2.5% to 3% of revenue. I mean, that's just an automatic reduction in margin, but we're still very confident in the long-term 30% to 32%. We just want to be prudent with our guide this year as we invest in marketing, as we invest in systems, as we continue to ramp the water parks, making sure that the organizational structure is there. But ultimately, this continues to be a year we're pretty happy with the trajectory we're on.

Steven Wieczynski

Okay, got you. And then, Bobby, probably 1 for you as well, wondering maybe how we should think about same-store sales cadence for fiscal 2027. Tom's commentary around July and August were positive, that sounds good. So it sounds like the first quarter should be positive just based on maybe how September ends up, but any color around the last 3 quarters of the year in terms of how you guys are maybe, it's tough to forecast that, but what you guys are thinking from a same-store sales perspective, and then maybe anything from a headwind or tailwind for the last 3 quarters of the year as well that we should be thinking about?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so moving backwards, June was the worst month I've ever seen here. And so that is going to be a tailwind next year. We're not going to have the World Cup. And hopefully, the weather in Chicago is better. So June has some tailwinds. Last year, we had about $10 million of revenue hit from 2 different distinct snowstorms in the March quarter. And the weather is the weather, but ultimately those were very unique.

The quarter that I'm most focused on is our December quarter. We have completely restructured our events platform. Events, as we've talked about a lot, has been this $40 million top-line drawdown over the past 3 years. And that business has been positive for the past 4 months, but most importantly, going into the end of September last year, the December backlog was tracking down 30%. This year it's tracking up 10%. So we feel, and it's still early and that's on a lower base of events, but we're pretty happy with where events is going. And if the trajectory stays, the December quarter is going to be a proof of concept that we can execute on the initiative as we lay out.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Handler from Roth MKM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Handler

I wonder if we could dig in a little deeper on events. A while back you talked about how you were moving salespeople back into the facilities and there were various initiatives to get the local community to come in and tasting programs and everything. What's been going on there and how are you seeing the results from that?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so we are moving the business forward every day. On July 1, we announced a full restructure. We went to a hybrid model where we have a split of our inbound business between huge companies and localized companies. And then we have our call center, which used to be unique to individual centers, is now covering parties sub-12. So it's a very rebalanced structure where the team can focus on outbound.

And it's still early, but we're seeing the fruits of the labor there where we're developing clients. We had a client this week who was going to have a party in New York and their other offices grabbed on and had parties as well. So it's sort of everybody in the company was doing the same thing and really building that outbound structure. And so again, the $40 million that we've lost over the past 3 years, I think is very achievable to rebuild over the next few years.

Eric Handler

Great, that's helpful. And then digging in a little bit more on SG&A was up a good amount year-over-year and sequentially. How much of that was due to promotion of the water parks? What were the initiatives that didn't play out as expected, and what are some of the shifts that you're planning here?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, I mean, the biggest thing is we are releasing a new CRM in October. So those investments have been very heavy in the June and September quarters, and they'll be heavy in the September quarter. It's the largest IT initiative the company's ever had. So those just flow through SG&A. SG&A sequentially is flat to down.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Randal Konik from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Randal Konik

Tom, in the press release and in your remarks on the quarter and the year, you talked about the capital expenditures coming down fairly dramatically from peak levels. And I think there was a point made that those will continue to be restrained going forward. Can you elaborate on that? Let's dig into that a little bit more and think about on a multi-year basis, how do you think through what you believe is appropriate levels of capital expenditure in the business? And then as you look to generate and accelerate more free cash flow, how are you thinking about deploying that? Where are we with share repurchases and so on and so forth? That'd be really helpful.

Thomas Shannon

Well, our CapEx budget for fiscal 2027 is $90 million. So it continues to trend meaningfully lower. In that number, we are finishing the remaining Lucky Strike rebrands and we are doing the AMF rebrands, most of which are already AMF, but not all. Some are transitioning from Bowlero brand or an independent brand to AMF. By the end of this fiscal year, I think we will have finished the rebrandings and we will only have 2 brands, which will make the marketing message much more focused and efficient, Lucky Strike and AMF.

There's been, in the last 2 years, a significant amount of CapEx spent to sort of catch up deferred maintenance in the water parks and the Boomers that we acquired. And that wasn't a surprise. That was part of the investment thesis. And we bought these assets at very attractive prices, but there was a reason and they needed to be refreshed. So we're meaningfully through that cycle. We're also just much more efficient. So we've really become very, very good at doing large CapEx projects like a roof replacement or parking lot replacement or HVAC upgrade for close to half or even less than we were paying historically by using national vendors with national contracts and all of that.

So I think ultimately CapEx, once we get through this rebranding cycle, we'll probably move into the $70 million to $80 million range. Again, we peaked at $194 million 2 years ago, down to $114 million in the last year and $90 million budgeted for this year. So a pretty good trajectory.

Randal Konik

Great, super helpful. Bobby, when you look at the guidance, slightly up on EBITDA at the midpoint. When you look at the different holdbacks you talked about, let's say this year in the World Cup, investment in marketing, the difficult weather impacting the water parks, the California business being subdued or down. Could you dimensionalize for us how impactful those items have been on the P&L, whether from a revenue perspective or an EBITDA perspective, to get some perspective of how potentially conservative this fiscal year guide could be for 2027?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so weather in the third quarter was $10 million. The World Cup was at least $7 million in June, if not $10 million in June. $10 million to $12 million. We were tracking in May very, like I was super happy. In May, we ended +2% and the momentum out of that was great. And then June 3 happened. And on June 3 was the first night of the Knicks championship. And we looked at the numbers the next day and we're like, wow, this does not bode well for the World Cup.

So it's at least $7 million, if not $12 million, because the World Cup did go until July 19. So you have, frankly, high single-digit, low double-digit comps the first few weeks of July. And then you had the water parks are about $3 million to $5 million of incremental weather, like there's always some weather. So all of those are there, that's what gives us confidence in a 1% to 3% comp this year. But if things go our way, it could be better. But weather is something that we've found is more volatile lately. So we're trying to not say everything's going to be perfect. So those numbers are partially de-risked in the 1% to 3%, but not fully de-risked.

Randal Konik

And maybe just finally, can you just give us a little bit more color on California in terms of reminding us how big of a contribution it is to the business, how difficult it's been over the last year or 2? You talked about changing leadership, sounds like things are getting substantially better, negative. So just unpack that a little bit more. And do you think California can turn positive this next fiscal year? And if so, what quarter would that be most likely to occur in?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so California comped -4% last year versus the rest of the company was +1%. So it's about 20% of the business. California is going to be driven by 2 things. Retail, which we keep talking about marketing. Marketing continues to get better, but I'm not going to say that that's going to be a key driver this year. California goes the way events go. If events continues momentum, I would expect California to turn, but we're not factoring that into our forecast this year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wold from B. Riley Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Wold

First off, you mentioned, Bobby, a little bit on the parks in terms of trailing 12 months and the plan to sell season passes earlier to maybe hedge out the weather a little bit. Can you update us on the larger projects that are still at hand for the parks to be off-season to kind of what we could see next year from capital improvements and new offerings that weren't there this year, the way you think they could do?

Thomas Shannon

Hi, this is Tom Shannon. I'll take this 1. So, we didn't close on Raging Waters Los Angeles, which is our biggest park, until January. And we inherited a significant deficit in season passes as no season passes were really sold in the fall as the seller got ready to transact. The transaction was delayed because it required approval by LA County, which is the landlord for the park. And so the water parks were suboptimal, right? But we just acquired them and we just acquired the 2 biggest in the portfolio. So there's a lot of things that will be done better and certainly with more runway.

One of which is having more of a runway to sell season passes, at least in our 2 biggest water parks, but also there were some decisions made last year to open the Panhandle parks later in the year and to keep them open later, which is happening. And so some of the revenue deficit in Q4 of fiscal 2026 is a result of not having the 2 parks in the Panhandle open earlier, but they are going to go later. So let me just give you an interesting data point.

Big Kahuna's in Destin, Florida, has had a positive attendance comp in 25 out of the last 30 days, and Shipwreck Island in Panama City Beach has had a positive attendance comp in 19 out of the last 30 days. It's a long summer season and there were some pretty meaningful headwinds in the quarter that are not necessarily representative of the business as a whole, water park business, but even of the summer, because there's a lot of this revenue that we can make up and will and probably have made up already in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. So it's hard to look at this business on a snapshot basis, but I think that explains a little bit about what happened and a little bit about what's happened since the fiscal year ended.

With regard to CapEx, there are some semi-large projects that we like to do, I say semi-large on order of $5 million each, in Shipwreck Island and in Big Kahuna's. I doubt if either of those will be approved in time to do in fiscal 2027. So the CapEx in aggregate in the water parks will be pretty minimal, I would say, in all likelihood this fiscal year. And then in the following year, we'd like to do these 2 large slide towers that would have a lot of presence from the street and drive traffic, also increase the nature of the parks, broaden the audience a little bit. And so that $10 million, give or take, is likely to happen in fiscal 2028.

Eric Wold

Got it. And then secondly, if you update us on where you are with the labor efficiency moves, and you talked a little bit about towards the end of the year to the savings. How far along are you, what's been saved so far? How much more do you think you can pull out of the bowling centers? And how far have you taken those initiatives, as you know, the water parks and FECs?

Bobby Lavan

Yes. So let's separate water parks and FECs and bowling because water parks and FECs, we're still figuring out what's the optimal labor model. On bowling, we're running down $1 million year-over-year right now of savings a month. Our model assumes that that flattens out and that there's actually an inflationary adjustment on payroll as we invest in people, invest in bonuses deeper in the system that ultimately drive KPIs that drive revenue. But it's a tailwind today, but I would assume it moderates to flat to some investments that drive revenue throughout the rest of the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Hamblin

So you guys are reducing your CapEx spend as you absorb some of these initiatives in the parks. I wanted to just understand in terms of thinking about the go-forward, you've done several acquisitions here over the last few years. And in terms of thinking about the go-forward strategy, there's been a lot to absorb, including the FECs, which have probably a slightly different business model and certainly investment needs. But just thinking about, should we expect here over the next year or 2 as you absorb these, that there may be a reduced need in terms of an acquisition strategy in total as you work on fine-tuning the operations for the water parks, or as you get through finishing the Lucky Strike conversions?

Thomas Shannon

Yes, that is accurate to say. We're still in the M&A game, but only opportunistically. We're not actively looking for deals because there is so much opportunity to optimize the existing portfolio. But I want to be very clear that we view the water park and FEC acquisitions as extremely good. Even when the year is not ideal, we're still in these for probably 6.5x to 7x. They are counter-seasonal. So we generated a lot of cash this summer that we wouldn't have otherwise.

Other than the last week of the month or first week of the month when rent is paid or interest is paid, every week was cash flow positive on an operating basis, which we've never seen before. Because things slow down on the bowling side in the summer, but with the addition of these assets, we generate a lot of cash. And so we feel really, really good about them, but we are focused on 2 things: operational improvements, organic EBITDA growth, and effective de-levering.

Jeremy Hamblin

Got it. And then, Tom, you noted that you're going to very carefully look at marketing investments that are being made and looking for high ROI on those investments. I think, Bobby, you said you've gone from 1% marketing budget to 2% or 2.5%. Thinking about making those incremental investments, how are you viewing the channel of where you're spending on that? Do you feel like there's fine-tuning? And then how quickly do you get feedback on whether or not a particular marketing strategy has been effective or hitting the ROI that you're looking for?

Bobby Lavan

So, we raised spend from $17 million to $30 million. Our impressions went from about 75 million a quarter to 350 million a quarter, but our engagement rate is not good enough. And so we're super focused on not taking the person who has intent to buy and showing them our website more. We're focused on the people who don't necessarily have intent to bowl and getting them to want to bowl. And that is what we need to push this year.

The feedback loop is instantaneous at this point. We have a lot of data that is driving the engagement with our content. We continue to invest in content. And so ultimately, we need to convert the people who don't have intent to intent. And that's where the growth will come from. We are seeing very significant growth in our lane reservations platform, which is the tip of the spear and the bottom of the funnel. And we need to continue to bring people in there that have more intent, and that's how we're looking at it.

Jeremy Hamblin

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. In terms of your marketing spend, what portion of that spend is on your events business? It seems like that's quite a bit more volatile in general, but wondering what portion of your total marketing budget goes into the events portion of your business.

Bobby Lavan

Great question. It is none right now. So it is an opportunity.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski from NOBLE Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Michael Kupinski

I just got a little color around the water parks a little bit. I know that you said that you're looking for a higher per cap spending and improved labor efficiency. And I was just wondering if you can maybe quantify the expected incremental revenue and EBITDA contribution from the water parks in fiscal 2027, particularly in September, if you could just add a little bit more color there.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so TTM EBITDA in June was $14 million. Then it became $22 million at the end of July. August is still not over. So August will drive that TTM to $26 million to $28 million. And then we'll have an incremental few million dollars more from September. One of the issues that Tom discussed is we do staff some of the water parks with J-1s, so these are international students who come in. Instead of them coming in in May, they came in for August and September. So we're testing pushing the season out, so there is a little bit of volatility in how we get in August and September, and that will also be dependent on the weather.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And then you're mentioning about the opportunity on events. How significant is events to the overall same-store revenue opportunity? And if you could just give us some sense of how bookings are going through the fall and into the holiday periods.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so events has been the entire comp decline over the past 3 years. We've quantified it's about $40 million that we had in 2023 that we don't have today. Ultimately, on top of the quantum, there is an element of events, corporate events during the week is very tip of the spear to traffic. Ultimately, if you go to a company event, you walk in, you have the wow factor of Lucky Strike, and you go, I'm bringing my kids this weekend. And so we've lost some of that over the past 3 years.

And our events business is a tiny percentage of the global or national events business. And so we just want to go out and get that business. From our perspective, December is our Super Bowl. Events becomes 40% of revenue in December. Last year, we were down the first 2 weeks of December. And so that business right now is tracking up.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And if I can squeeze 1 more in, you have in the past discussed rationalizing the location portfolio as capital intensity comes down. I was just wondering how many of your locations would you characterize as underperforming? And then should investors expect a meaningful number of closures, sales, or other portfolio actions in fiscal 2027?

Thomas Shannon

Well, in 1 sense, you could say they all underperformed their potential. The number of centers that we have that are EBITDA negative is like maybe 2 or 3. One of which is a legacy property we inherited when we bought Lucky Strike that we sort of knew we were just going to exit at the end of the lease term, which is coming up in the next 15 months or so. I would estimate in this fiscal year, we'll probably shed on order of 10 properties. And most or all of these are properties that we acquired in the last 5 years after we went public and we had a flurry of M&A activity because there was a focus on unit count, which in retrospect was a mistake and a mistake that won't be repeated. So we're just rationalizing the portfolio. There won't be anything that I would characterize as seismic. It's really just getting rid of centers in markets where they're peripheral and they're more of a hassle to manage than they're really adequate to the portfolio.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, and we're very focused on leverage. And so if we have properties that on a four-wall basis, we can sell at an accretive leverage multiple. And when you boil it down and say, what does it cost to send the field there? What is IT support? What is insurance support? It's very accretive to our leverage position to sort of sell some of these fringe assets. And we've done a comprehensive review, looked at land values, go-dark values, and ultimately there is an ability to use asset sales to de-lever the business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Ian Zaffino

I just wanted to kind of pivot to the comment about the per caps, water parks. What basically is driving some of that core pricing power, maybe there, and then versus your other concepts, what's kind of being the differentiating factor there?

Thomas Shannon

Well, the per caps in the water park were up this year on order of 15% to 20% as a range. So we decided after last year, which was a pretty good year, that there were a lot of pricing opportunities. The season pass was simply too cheap last year in our view. And we took price. We introduced a super premium tier called Elite. And surprisingly, about 10% of the season passes sold were the Elite. So there was demand at the high end, certainly for that product, which was good. We de-emphasized the season pass this year, and we were successful in driving up per cap.

It was partially responsible for a decline in attendance, but our biggest water park in Los Angeles, it didn't reach 80 degrees there for the first month that it was open. And an air temp of 80 degrees is just not sufficient for a water park. The water temperature was frigid. So we lost, I don't know, I haven't done the math, but probably 60% of attendance, we were down probably 60% in that month. Now, it has rebounded, but 1 of the problems with having a slow start to the season is that is when it's most attractive for someone to buy a season pass because you get to amortize it over the rest of the summer. As you move through the summer, the season pass becomes relatively less attractive.

We now view season pass in a completely different way than we did 4 months ago. Four months ago, we viewed it really as a matter of pricing strategy and mix. We now view it as weather insurance. And so had it been a good weather season, we would look really, really smart for holding out of this premium price model. The problem is that you can't predict the weather. And if you have, in the case of Raging Waters Los Angeles, a slow start to the season, or at Raging Waves in Yorkville, Illinois, an abnormally cold, rainy summer, you need that built-in season pass revenue to reduce volatility. So this coming year will strike more of a balance between volume and price, and I think we'll get closer to optimal on that.

Ian Zaffino

Okay, thank you. And then just a follow-up. Bobby, I know you said the trends were improving since your decline, but what are we kind of looking at now? We backed at that 2% we saw in May. Is there any type of acceleration or any type of notable trends that you're seeing in July and August?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so July, we're going to have to carry the first 2.5 weeks of the World Cup. So July was down low single digits. August is flattening out, but it's not fully there. Events is strong, leagues is strong. The school shift and the Labor Day shift is a little weird. So ultimately, this weekend will be very important whether August flips positive or negative. And so ultimately, we're more focused on the December quarter, but generally, we are expecting +1% to +3% throughout the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Hargreaves from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Hargreaves

If we look at the 2027 guide, the $340 million to $360 million, can you give us an idea of how much the contribution from the water parks and Boomers will be in that number?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, water parks will be somewhere between $28 million and $33 million. That really comes down to how September plays out and how May and June next year play out. Boomers, which excludes Big Kahuna's, which came with Boomers, Boomers right now is $11 million of EBITDA, and with all the CapEx we put in there, that's anywhere between $10 million and $15 million in the next 12 months.

David Hargreaves

Got it. And then if we take the midpoint of the guidance, interest, I imagine tax payments will be negligible, and $90 million of CapEx, I think free cash flow should probably be around $50 million. I'm just wondering if that's a fair number to assume.

Bobby Lavan

That is a fair number to assume. That does not include any asset sales.

David Hargreaves

So about, okay, it doesn't include asset sales. About half of that we could assume maybe is debt repayment?

Bobby Lavan

The goal would be to pay down the revolver by June. So, yes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Miller from Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gregory Miller

I'd like to dive more into the performance if possible and your engagement with the players. I saw a press release inter-quarter that spoke about the decision to invest in lane conditioning and oil patterns. And I'm curious if that was driven by customer surveys and just how important that is to their satisfaction as league bowlers.

Thomas Shannon

I think machine reliability and lane conditions are critically important to the league bowlers, and we are super focused on that now. We've made some structural changes to be able to ensure better machine reliability. We've upgraded the quality of the oil in league-heavy houses. And we're keeping a very close eye on it through feedback that we get both directly and through social media. It's a big initiative. It coincides with a reinvigorated league business. The league business is outperforming all of our other business lines right now, and it's an important business unit. It's $110 million to $120 million before ancillary spend. And so we view it as a significant growth vector for us going forward, but we have to deliver the product.

Operator

Thanks. There are no further questions at this time, and we have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.