惠普公司 (HPQ) 2026 財年第三季財報電話會議：營收創新高與調升財測

惠普 (HP Inc., HPQ) 公布 2026 財年第三季營收創歷史新高，主要受到個人系統事業群成長、高價值產品組合及價格調整措施的推動。管理階層上調全年 EPS 及自由現金流展望，同時警告記憶體與儲存成本上升將持續對近期利潤率帶來壓力。

核心要點

• 第三財季營收達到創紀錄的 157 億美元，年增 13%，按固定匯率計算則年增 11%。這是惠普連續第九個季度實現營收成長。
• 個人系統事業群營收成長 18%，達到創第三財季新高的 118 億美元。商用營收成長 22%，消費型營收成長 10%，其中商用業務占該部門營收 70% 以上。
• Non-GAAP 稀釋後 EPS 成長 11% 至 0.83 美元，其中包含關稅退款帶來的 0.11 美元收益。管理階層表示，若扣除該收益，EPS 仍高於惠普財測範圍的高端。
• 惠普在第三季創造了約 16 億美元的自由現金流，今年以來累計超過 25 億美元。全年自由現金流指引上調至 30 億至 32 億美元。
• 第三季 AI PC 占個人系統出貨量的 46%。管理階層預計該比重將在 2026 財年結束前達到約 50%，2027 年達到 60%-70%，2028 年超過 70%。
• 管理階層預計個人系統事業群的營業利益率將在第四財季觸底，隨著緩解措施、產品重新設計、價格調整與高階產品組合逐步發揮成效，預計將於 2027 財年逐季改善。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

個人系統事業群

個人系統事業群連續第十個季度實現營收成長。18% 的增幅反映了高價值產品定位、因應大宗商品通膨的價格重訂、服務業務擴展及有利的產品組合，這些因素抵銷了出貨量下滑的影響有餘。

商用營收成長 22%，消費型營收成長 10%。惠普在高階領域的市占率提升了 2.6 個百分點，工作站領域提升了 1.8 個百分點。包含 WXP 在內的周邊設備、協作產品與服務持續貢獻個人系統事業群約三分之一的毛利。

AI PC 占該部門出貨量的 46%。管理階層將高規格設備的需求歸因於在地化 AI 工作負載、較低的 token 成本、降低的延遲以及數據隱私與安全需求。目前的應用場景包括員工生產力、工程與設計、客戶服務、預測性維護、製造品質控制、零售與醫療保健。

據管理階層表示，Windows 11 的升級換機潮已完成約 70%，並持續支撐中小企業的需求。惠普預期 AI PC、邊緣 AI 及代理型工作負載將成為越來越重要的需求驅動因子。

列印事業群

由於價格競爭激烈環境下耗材與硬體出貨量下降，列印事業群營收下降 2%（按固定匯率計算下降 4%）。耗材營收按固定匯率計算下降 4%，部分反映了中東地區的逆風。

家用列印營收下降 2%，商用列印營收下降 1%。特別是在北美與中國辦公市場疲軟的情況下，惠普維持對具獲利性硬體布局的專注，而非追求低利潤率的市占率。

大容量連續印表機 (Tank printer) 出貨量成長 42%，惠普在該領域的市占率進一步提升 4 個百分點。工業列印錄得連續第十二個季度的營收成長，而 3D 列印營收則實現雙位數成長。

惠普還與 RRD 簽署了一份為期三年、價值 1 億美元的戰略協議，重點關注 AI、工業自動化與列印生產。公司表示，其 Precise Print 功能目前已在 150 多個國家/地區推出，可降低高達 38% 的紙張使用量與 47% 的墨水消耗。

區域表現

在個人系統事業群的帶動下，按固定匯率計算，所有區域的營收均實現成長。隨著客戶升級設備以應對更具挑戰性的工作負載，亞太及日本地區 (APJ) 成長 22%，歐洲、中東及非洲地區 (EMEA) 成長 10%，美洲地區成長 5%。

管理階層展望

惠普將 2026 財年 Non-GAAP 稀釋後 EPS 展望從 2.90-3.10 美元上調至 3.19-3.29 美元。修正後的區間包含關稅退款帶來的估計 0.19 美元有利影響。

針對第四財季，管理階層預計 Non-GAAP 稀釋後 EPS 為 0.69-0.79 美元，其中包括估計 0.08 美元的關稅退款收益。

受益於獲利表現與營運資金管理，目前預計全年自由現金流將達到 30 億至 32 億美元。

在個人系統事業群方面，管理階層預計第四財季營收將季減且表現低於正常季節性水準，但仍將實現年成長。價格調整、高階與商用產品組合、AI PC、工作站及附加產品預期將抵銷出貨量下滑的影響。惠普引述行業預測指出，日曆年下半年的 PC 出貨需求將較去年同期出現 15%-19% 左右的衰退。

個人系統事業群的營業利益率預計在第四財季將降至第三季水準以下，管理階層仍將其視為低谷。公司預計，隨著投入成本成長放緩及緩解措施開始發揮成效，2027 財年將出現逐季改善，但未提供正式的 2027 財年指引。

針對列印事業群，預計第四季營收將符合歷史季節性特徵。扣除關稅退款後，營業利益率預計將處於惠普 16%-19% 長期區間的下半部。管理階層表示，若扣除一次性關稅退款收益，該區間對於 2027 財年依然適用。

風險與關注焦點

• 記憶體與儲存成本占產品成本的比重預計將進一步增加。低成本庫存帶來的效益目前已基本結束，而高成本庫存正逐步反應至獲利中。
• 價格上漲可能會對 PC 出貨需求造成壓力。價格反應的時間因銷售管道和合約而異，從立即生效到數個月不等。
• 惠普預計日曆年下半年 PC 市場出貨量將出現 15%-19% 左右的衰退，從而帶來潛在的需求與產品組合壓力。
• 列印事業群仍面臨激進的定價、硬體出貨量下降以及耗材營收長期下滑的風險。管理階層繼續預計，長期來看按固定匯率計算的耗材營收將以低至中個位數的幅度下滑。
• 關稅退款對第三季獲利與列印事業群利潤率提供了實質支持。這些收益屬於一次性項目，已排除在管理階層的長期列印利潤率框架之外。
• 在成本通膨的環境下，個人系統事業群的通路庫存高於正常水準，不過管理階層表示庫存水準仍受控且符合其需求展望。列印事業群的通路庫存則保持在正常區間內。
• 惠普繼續透過採購策略、供應鏈措施、價格調整、產品配置及成本控制來應對大宗商品與地緣政治壓力。管理階層表示，目前的記憶體與儲存供應足以滿足本財年的客戶需求。

分析師問答亮點

管理階層表示，低成本零組件庫存帶來的收益已基本耗盡。然而，產品重新設計、平台最佳化、供應商認證與長期合約修訂應能日益抵銷成本壓力。

在需求塑造、配置調整與成本控制之後，價格調整仍是最後的緩解手段。由於惠普透過線上管道、分銷商、企業協議與合約終端用戶交易進行銷售，更新後的價格可能需要長達數個月的時間才能傳導至所有客戶。

關於 AI PC 的經濟效益，管理階層表示客戶正日益評估在地化推理，以降低 token 費用、讓敏感數據更靠近生成地點、改善回應時間並減少對網路的依賴。企業討論的重點也集中在如何安全地管理 AI 代理以及維持集中式的設備管理。

管理階層拒絕提供 2027 財年的 PC 出貨量預測。管理階層指出了兩個潛在的需求影響因素：AI PC、高階 PC 和工作站的採用率上升，以及因當前價格上漲而延後的設備換機需求最終將得到釋放。

法說會完整逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2026 HP Inc. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lisa, and I'll be your conference moderator for today's call. [Operator Instructions]As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Alok Juyal, Global Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Alok Juyal

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to HP's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Bruce Broussard, HP's Interim Chief Executive Officer; and Karen Parkhill, HP's Financial Officer. Before handing the call over to Bruce, let me remind you that this call is a webcast, and replay will be available on our website shortly after the call for approximately 1 year. .

We posted the earnings release and accompanying slide presentation on our Investor Relations web page at investor.hp.com. As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our business as we see them today.

For more detailed information, please see disclaimers in the earnings materials relating to forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. For a discussion of some of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please refer to HP's SEC reports, including our most recent Form 10-K.

HP assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. We also note that the financial information discussed on this call reflects estimates based on information available now and could differ materially from the amounts ultimately reported in HP's SEC filings.

During this webcast, unless otherwise specifically noted, all comparisons are year-over-year comparisons with the corresponding year ago period. References to HP channel inventory, referred to the Tier 1 channel inventory and market share references are based on calendar quarter information.

In addition, unless otherwise specified, all financial measures discussed today are non-GAAP and EPS refers to non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share. Please refer to the tables in today's earnings release and the accompanying slide presentation on our website for reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. With that, I will now turn the call over to Bruce.

Bruce Broussard

Thank you, Alok, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I'm pleased to share that we delivered record third quarter revenue and continue to exceed expectations on EPS. We're also laying a strong foundation for the AI era and are building momentum.

Our strategic execution, robust commodity mitigation plan and relies commitment to innovation are helping us advance our business and enable our customers to successfully navigate this most significant technology shift. Today, I'll share our third quarter highlights.

Discuss the innovations we are bringing to market and touch on how we are managing the current environment. Before I do, I know some of you are interested in an update on the CEO search. I'm sure you can appreciate that I am unable to share details or a time line, but the search is proceeding well, and we continue to make good progress on finding the right next leader for HP.

In the meantime, having spent the past several months leading the company day to day, a developed deeper perspective on HP for observations stand out. First, we need to continue advancing our operating infrastructure to become better connected, AI-enabled and data-driven, improving productivity while delivering better experiences for our customers, partners and employees.

Second, we will continue advancing our devices to be AI leading by bringing more computing to the edge or context of creating. This will enable more intelligent devices that anticipate needs and proactively solve problems. Third, we need to accelerate our evolution towards integrated solutions across our broad portfolio of devices, creating differentiated offerings that deliver greater value to our customers outstanding reoccurring revenue opportunities.

And lastly, we provide greater strategic clarity around where we choose to play and allocate capital, resources and capabilities against those priorities with focus and discipline. HP has tremendous assets, one of the most iconic brands and technology, a strong global footprint sophisticated supply chain, deep commercial relationships and a talented team, and there are meaningful opportunities to make HP stronger, more cohesive and more effective.

We are taking action now to strengthen the validation, sharpen our priorities and improved execution. So that when our next CEO steps in, it can build on that momentum, and lead HP into its next chapter of growth and value creation. Let me get to our results. This quarter, we delivered $15.7 billion in revenue. A record Q3 for HP.

This represents an increase of 13% and our ninth consecutive quarter of top line growth, driven by another strong quarter in Personal Systems, while print results were in line with our expectations. We executed on our commitments and accelerating our key growth areas, which collectively grew 46% year-over-year and faster than our core.

We continue to take share in high-value segments while managing commodity headwinds with our mitigation playbook, enabling us to deliver EPS above our expectations. Even when excluding a tariff-free fund benefit while also delivering strong free cash flow. In short, we did what we said we would do.

In Personal Systems, we achieved our tenth consecutive quarter of revenue growth, up 18% year-over-year, driven by solid growth across both commercial and consumer segments. We are particularly pleased with the continued strength of our AI PC portfolio continued to grow and is still expected to be 50% of our shipment mix by the end of this fiscal year.

At the same time, consistent with our strategy, we delivered double-digit revenue expansion in our key growth areas, including advanced compute solutions and workforce solutions. We also continue to capture share in high-value categories, including premium PC, returning us to share leadership in the Americas.

Overall, these results show customers continue to invest in the hardware and solutions they need to run AI or work habits. Turning to Print. Revenue was down 2% year-over-year and what continues to be a competitive market. We remain focused on pricing discipline and the placement of profitable units. We said we would double down on bigger tank market, and we did, gaining another 4 points of share this quarter.

Industrial Printing delivered its 12th straight quarter of revenue growth as customers continue to leverage our award-winning hardware portfolio to drive their digital workflows and grow their businesses.

Across both segments, we are balancing near-term execution with long-term investment and shifting our portfolio towards high-value and more profitable categories. Turning to innovation. This quarter, we unveiled advancements designed to help our customers thrive in the AI era.

We believe the future of AI is hybrid. That means AI will operate both in the cloud and increasingly at the edge. Our customers already seeing the cost of cloud-based AI [indiscernible] economics alone makes edge AI compelling. It can also improve security, latency and strengthen data governance.

To make Edge AI a reality, we are working with customers and ecosystem partners to build platforms to extend data center class AI capabilities to the edge by enabling GPU sharing through HP Z Boost and integrating it with our WXP software layer security and device features, we are making traditional cloud AI capabilities available locally.

Building advanced AI locally has to of specialized infrastructure, large budgets and complex setups. We are changing that. With our HP CGX Fury, we bring data center class AI to the debt side, so teams can build and run front tier scale models and always on agents locally.

The response since we first showed this direction at Computex has been clear customers want local AI, they can own. Over the next month, we will extend this momentum into more of the form factors people already carry with the memory empower those on device models actually need.

A leading automotive company is using HP solutions to bring visual AI and inferencing directly to its manufacturing line, helping improve quality inspections, performance and economics. We see the same potential in many other sectors that require on-site compute performance, strong security and the most cost-effective ways to manage increasingly complex AI models.

This creates significant opportunities in areas like retail, public sector and health care. We are also advancing what PCs can do as edge devices. In the Agentic era, PCs are becoming partners that understand their needs and help meet them. So we are reimagining what a personal computer can do with our new Omni book Ultra team powered by NVIDIA RTX Spark.

It brings the compute needed to build and run sophisticated AI models and personal agents to a thin mainstream mobile PC and our Omni desk mini desktop combines full-sized performance for the contact design and built-in AI capabilities.

In Print, we're already delivering tangible customer value with AI. In June, we expanded our flagship AI-powered print experience Precise Print to more than 150 countries. By intelligently removing unnecessary web content before printing.

Precise Print helps customers reduce paper usage by up to 38% and ink consumption up to 47%. Our HP neo AI companion brings a Agentic AI to industrial print operations and is gaining momentum. Neo was awarded a 2026 European Digital Press Association Award for Best Software agent in the print industry AI category.

This underscores our commitment to intelligent, data-driven production systems but built in remote remediation capabilities, and importantly, solving uptime problems for our printer service customers.

In Q3, we also signed a 3-year $100 million strategic agreement with RRD one of the world's leading print service providers. This reflects our shared vision to accelerate AI and industrial automation and print production. Succeeding at the edge also requires intelligent ways to manage the technology portfolio.

Work moves across PCs, meeting rooms, collaboration tools, printers and other end points. Our WXP platform helps CIOs track and manage fleets of connected devices and applications. This quarter, we integrated HP Poly lens and collaboration capabilities into WXP, getting IT teams greater visibility across PCs, printers and collaboration devices.

By bringing together insights that were previously isolated across different environments, organizations and channel partners can turn data into actionable intelligence, improved workforce experiences, lower costs and establish a governance layer. WXP was named a leader in the 2026 [ Gartner ] Magic Quadrant for digital employee experience management tools.

We believe the future of computing will be increasingly intelligent and integrated with devices anticipating user needs, executing tasks seamlessly and connecting traditionally separate cloud and desktop environments. By bringing AI capabilities closer to users, these devices can provide the context required for more effective reasoning and inference.

AI at the edge offers meaningful benefits for our customers while creating significant incremental growth opportunities for HP and the broader industry. We believe HP is uniquely positioned to lead this evolution through our broad portfolio of products and services, trusted brand presence in more than 180 countries and robust innovation pipeline.

Together, these strengths create substantial opportunities for growth. At HP, we consider ourselves customer, using our own business as a proving ground for the products and solutions we develop. Like our customers, HP is benefiting today from localized AI capabilities using edge inferencing across our business.

For example, in our Singapore production facility, teams are using our ZBook workstations running an OPUS model to enhance quality insurance and detection capabilities on the manufacturing line. This past quarter, we scaled our work with OpenAI. OpenAI frontier, we are integrating AI across the customer and partner experiences, the HC store, digital support, [ WXPtelenterin, ] employee productivity and software development.

Early deployments are already helping teams accelerate engineering workflows, enhanced security analysis and automate routine tasks while maintaining HP's high standards for data governance and security. We are just getting started with an AI and expect to share more as we turn our pilots into scale capabilities that create business value.

Let me now focus on the external supply and cost environment, which remains complex. We continue to effectively execute our mitigation plan. We remain confident in our memory and storage supply availability for this fiscal year and our focus on our needs into next year and beyond.

Enhanced operating model we are building is designed to compound over time, creating a more connected, process-led enterprise that can serve customers with greater consistency, speed and predictability. What we are building is not a short-term efficiency program or a situational response but a fundamental stronger operating model that better connects planning, decision-making and execution across the enterprise.

We already see early signs of this working in areas such as order delivery predictability, improved accuracy rates leading to better conversion on incoming orders. The solid mitigation efforts already in place and additional steps planned, we remain confident about HP's upside potential, both in near term and long term and the constraints the industry face begins to lift.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on being the trusted resource for customers in navigating a dynamic environment. In Personal Systems, we see opportunity for increasing commercial workloads [ AITCs, ] advanced compute to the broader shift towards hybrid AI and growing need for contact are use cases at the edge.

In Print, we will continue to place profitable hardware units, grow big tank and subscription businesses and invest in industrial applications. Our teams will continue to manage memory storage and geopolitical pressures through pricing, sourcing, supply chain actions, productivity and portfolio choices.

Opportunity ahead is significant. AI is moving from isolated experimentation into day-to-day workflows, devices and environments. HP is well positioned to be the customer's trusted edge AI platform, helping them make the most of that transition.

In closing, I'm proud of how the HP team performed this quarter. We delivered strong Personal Systems growth, managed through a challenging end market and continue to drive innovation that will shape how work is done. Thank you to our employees for their commitment and to our customers, partners and investors for the trust you continue to place in HP.

With that, I'll turn it over to Karen.

Karen Parkhill

Thank you, Bruce, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased with our third quarter results, which reflect solid execution and continued progress against the priorities we outlined at the start of the year.

For the third consecutive quarter, we delivered better-than-expected top line growth and EPS at the top or above our guidance range, underscoring the discipline of our teams in a dynamic operating environment. We drove yet another quarter of robust revenue growth with continued momentum in Personal Systems and key growth areas.

Double-digit sequential growth in Personal Systems also supported strong free cash flow in the quarter. And at the same time, as Bruce mentioned, we are continuing to drive our 4-pillar plan to mitigate rising input costs.

These ongoing efforts to secure supply, shape demand, implement targeted cost reductions and take disciplined pricing action, all continue to ramp and have enabled us to deliver OP rates in line with our, growth after excluding the favorable impact of tariff refunds received in the quarter.

Now let me walk you through more details on our third quarter performance. We delivered 13% revenue growth or 11% in constant currency, with growth across all regions. By geography, strong Personal Systems performance drove constant currency revenue up 22% in APJ, 10% in EMEA and 5% in the Americas.

As customers continue to upgrade their devices to manage more demanding workloads. Our gross margin at 18.8% was down year-over-year as expected driven by higher commodity costs and increased mix from Personal Systems. Pricing, strong growth from our key growth areas and tariff refunds partially offset these headwinds.

Strong revenue growth, along with our focus on disciplined cost management, helped to drive operating expenses down as a percent of revenue. while still enabling important investments in innovation, product promotion and our people. All in, our operating margin was 6.5%.

And when excluding the benefit of tariff refunds, this was in line with our expectations. Below operating profit, higher cash balances contributed to lower financing costs in the quarter. and led to better-than-expected other income and expense. Our net earnings per share at $0.83 grew 11% and includes $0.11 related to tariff refunds.

Importantly, without the tariff benefit, we still delivered EPS above the top end of our guidance range. Now let's turn to segment performance. In Personal Systems, we delivered record third quarter revenue of $11.8 billion, up 18% and a stronger-than-expected market.

While volume was down as expected, our continued prioritization of higher-value unit placements, repricing for higher commodity costs and services expansion more than offset the volume headwind. And consistent with our strategy, we gained share in the premium PC categories and delivered strong performance from our key growth areas.

With double-digit revenue growth in AI PC, advanced compute solutions, hybrid systems and workforce solutions. From a segment perspective, we also delivered double-digit revenue growth in both commercial, up 22% and Consumer, up 10%, driven by disciplined pricing actions and favorable mix.

Aligned with our focus on higher value segments, commercial represented over 70% of our Personal Systems revenue in the quarter. PS operating margin of 4.6% and was below our long-term range as expected and down year-over-year from higher commodity costs and variable compensation, which we worked to partially offset with repricing actions and other cost reductions.

Turning to Print. As expected, revenue was down 2% or 4% in constant currency on lower supplies and hardware volumes and what remained the competitive pricing environment. These headwinds were offset in part by key growth area contributions, including continued momentum in industrial print, fueled by increased usage, double-digit growth in 3D and and a continued ramp of subscribers to our all-in plan.

By customer segment, Consumer revenue declined 2% with lower traditional printer volume, offset in part by higher ASPs. Aligned with our strategy, we continue to increase our penetration of the tank printer market, delivering 42% unit growth in this important profit upfront category and gaining share both year-over-year and sequentially.

In commercial, revenue was down 1%, driven by lower volume and unfavorable mix. We saw particular softness in the office market in North America and China, and our results reflect our focus on placing profitable units in an aggressive pricing environment. And in line with expectations, supplies revenue was down 4% in constant currency, impacted in part by headwinds in the Middle East.

All in, print operating margin was 18.1%. The up roughly 1 point year-over-year, reflecting the favorable impact of tariff refunds and pricing actions. Excluding the benefit of tariff refunds, print operating margin was in line with our guidance at the low end of our long-term range.

Now let me move to cash flow and capital allocation. We generated over $1.7 billion in cash from operations and roughly $1.6 billion in free cash flow in Q3 on the strength of Personal Systems performance. And as planned, we paid down slightly more than $500 million in debt maturities due in the quarter.

Through disciplined working capital management and robust Personal Systems growth, we have driven year-to-date free cash flow of more than $2.5 billion, well ahead of our typical seasonality. Through both dividends and share repurchase, we returned nearly $600 million to shareholders in the quarter and over $1.5 billion year-to-date, and we ended the quarter within our target leverage range.

As always, we remain committed to returning approximately 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders over time as long as our gross leverage remains under 2x, and there aren't better return opportunities. Looking ahead to the remainder of our fiscal year, we continue to expect input costs to rise, putting near-term pressure on our operating margins, particularly in Personal Systems.

We are factoring that into our Q4 outlook, along with the traction we are making on our cost mitigation plans. By segment, in Personal Systems, we remain aligned with industry experts projecting the PC unit TAM to decline high teens year-over-year for the second half of the calendar year.

Given the impact of commodity-driven price increases, we expect below seasonal revenue performance in Q4. That said, we do expect year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter, driven by pricing actions, share gains in premium categories attach of higher-margin offerings and increased penetration of AI PCs as more AI workloads move to edge devices.

We continue to expect memory and storage costs to increase further as a percentage of the bill of materials. And as we signaled last quarter, we expect our Q4 margin to be below Q3 levels, and then to sequentially improve as we look ahead into FY '27. In print, our outlook is aligned with industry expectations for a mid-single-digit decline in the hardware market in the second half of the calendar year.

We will continue building on our share gain progress in tank printers through portfolio extensions and targeted promotions, while completing the rollout of our latest AI-enabled laser portfolio and office by the end of the fiscal year. For Q4, we expect print revenue to be in line with historical seasonality.

And excluding the impact of any tariff refunds in the quarter, we expect operating margins in the lower half of our long-term range, reflecting our focus on incremental hardware unit placement and near-term input cost pressures, which we are actively working to mitigate.

Beyond the segments, we expect Q4 OI&E and corporate to be similar to Q3 levels. All in, based on our strong performance in the quarter, we are increasing our outlook for the fiscal year. We now expect diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $319 to $329. Up from our previous range of $290 to $310 and including a $0.19 favorable impact from estimated tariff refunds.

For Q4 specifically, we expect diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.69 to $0.79, including an $0.08 favorable impact from estimated tariff refunds. And given our improved earnings performance and strong free cash flow in Q3, we are also increasing our outlook for free cash flow to be in the range of $3 billion to $3.2 billion for the fiscal year.

Looking beyond this fiscal year, as Bruce said, we see meaningful opportunity as workloads continue shifting to the edge, and we are well positioned to lead this transition through our trusted devices software and services.

In Personal Systems, we plan to continue to invest in innovation across AI PC, workstations and high-value solutions with a disciplined focus on gaining share in premium categories.

We expect input costs to continue to rise but at a slower rate than we have experienced in fiscal '26. And of course, we remain focused on mitigating the impact of this dynamic commodities environment and expect to bring our PSOP rate back into our long-term range as quickly as possible in FY '27.

In Print, we will remain focused on protecting operating profit through share gains and profit upfront tank printers expansion in consumer subscriptions, strengthening our position in office through AI-enabled innovation, sustaining momentum in industrial graphics and maintaining cost discipline. I will share more on our fiscal 2017 outlook in our Q4 earnings call.

In closing, we are pleased with the performance in the quarter and the progress we are making against our strategic and financial priorities. We have a strong track record of execution and remain confident in our ability to drive continued growth and value ahead.

Turning to Q&A. Given the continued dynamic PC environment, we have invited [ Ketan Patel, ] Head of Personal Systems to join us. So with that, I would like to hand it back to the operator and open the call for your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first questioner today will be Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI.

分析師問答

Amit Daryanani

I guess I have a question and a follow-up, but maybe just to start with Karen, could you just spend a little bit of time on the Personal Systems assumptions for Q4? I think you sort of implying PS revenues will be sub seasonal, but you should still see year-over-year growth in the model.

I think it's a fair way to think about it, but I'd love to understand, do you see that fiscal Q4 trend line of units being down high tees, but revenue is still growing by a few points, persisting through fiscal '27? Or is that more in Q4?

Karen Parkhill

Yes. Thanks for the question, Amit. On Q4, our outlook reflects the industry's view that PC units will decline high teens in the second half as pricing actions pressure demand as we said, though, we do still expect to drive year-over-year revenue growth.

We expect it to be down quarter-over-quarter but growing year-over-year with a richer mix of higher-value categories including premium and commercial and consumer PCs, AI PC, workstations and attach offerings along with pricing and all of that to more than offset the lower units.

I would also note that we're maintaining our discipline to prioritizing profitable growth and edge AI driven demand rather than chasing a low margin share. Our comments on revenue growth relate to Q4. It's too early for us to be giving FY '27 guidance. We'll be doing that on our Q4 call.

Amit Daryanani

Fair enough. I figure I can try nonetheless. On memory, in your prepared in the press release, you folks talked about meaningful improvements in memory supply, higher fulfillment rate. Can you just talk about. Is that just you getting better allocations or there's more spot availability?

Just what do those things mean for HP Inc. And from your perspective, where do you think PS margins would trough as you go forward?

Karen Parkhill

Yes. Thanks for the question. On supply, we are getting the supply that we need to fill our customer demand. So that has not been an issue. And as we look ahead in Q4 at our margins, I would say that -- we said that we expected Q4 margins to be a low point last quarterly call. .

We continue to believe that. But we have high confidence that it will improve from there. As we work through this volatile environment, I would say we've not only been transparent, but we've also shown that we can deliver what we say we will do.

And we signaled at the beginning of the year, that margins would be increasingly impacted as we move through the fiscal year. Costs have continued to rise, and we are working through the benefit of the lower cost of inventory on our balance sheet that we had more in the first half and now you're seeing inventory that is carrying higher cost working through our P&L in the back half.

But at the same time, we've been successfully implementing our mitigation plan. We've secured supply. We've qualified new suppliers. We've reshaped demand and configuration, and we've taken targeted cost actions and reprice with discipline.

And as we said before, some of those actions move quickly, while others like product redesign and platform optimization on the cost reduction side and long-term contract revisions on the pricing side takes some lead time.

We also expect margin benefit from the areas where we're prioritizing growth in the premium categories and AI PCs and higher value attach and edge AI workloads and all of that contributes to improved overall margins. So on input costs, we said we still expect them to rise in FY '27 and in but at a slower rate than we've seen to date.

So our focus, as I said, is just going to be to recover PS margins back to the long-term range as quickly as possible while also continuing to drive profitable growth.

Operator

The next question comes from Mark Newman, Bernstein.

Mark Newman

Following up on the margin. On the timing of memory cost increases, is the inventory, the low cost may lower cost memory inventory benefit done? Or in the Q3 that you just printed, is there still some cost benefit? .

I'm just trying to figure out on the cost line, are there more headwinds for you to normalize to the market price of memory? Or is the upcoming cost increase just based on the market increases of memory? And related to that on pricing for PCs, Obviously, these results are implying quite considerable price increases, which is leading to the strong revenue growth.

But I'm trying to understand, is there -- because some of your revenue is coming from channel relationships and those gene relationships may be a bit of a lag in sort of how quickly you can increase prices.

So are you caught up to where you want to be for pricing or some of those relationships with some of your thermal partners still need catching up due to whatever terms. So in other words, I'm trying to figure out -- is there more upside to pricing? Or should we expect you to be quite in line with the market going forward?

Karen Parkhill

Sure, Mark. I'll start answering that long question, and I'll ask Katen to chime in if he's got anything to add. I would say, first, on the PS margin, yes, we were benefiting earlier in the year from that lower cost of inventory that was on our balance sheet and flowing through to the P&L.

While we still have a mix of lower cost of inventory, I would say that benefit is largely behind us. And we now have higher cost of inventory that's working through our P&L, as I said. But on the cost side, we have other things that we are doing to help drive costs down.

Things like product redesign and platform optimization, those things take some time, and we'll begin to start seeing the benefit of some of those things going forward. And that is one of the levers that will be helping us improve our margin as we move forward.

On pricing, we have been increasing pricing -- we expect to continue to increase pricing as input costs rise. We use that as a last lever after we have focused on demand shaping and product reconfiguration and and taking cost out everywhere that we can. We use pricing as the last lever.

So I'll let Ketan add anything.

Ketan Patel

Karen. You covered it very well on a few of the pricing questions. I'll just add one thing that we have several go-to-market options including we do business with online channels. We do business with our regular channel partners, enterprise customers, and we also have contractual end user deals.

And all of them have different durations for reflecting updated pricing. So the lag can range from immediately to a few months before price changes will be fully reflected for all the customers. And this is all post mitigations, which Karen already spoke about.

So definitely, we'll continue to work on some of those actions. On top of it, I would say that while pricing is one of the levers, some of the actions which we have taken, let me quote a couple of examples which are helping us navigate the situation.

This robust supply informed demand planning and demand shaping muscle which we are leveraging through our WSP workforce Experience Platform Insights to identify key configurations for specific customer workloads is helping customers with the best value with the right cost.

And the second example I would quote is we have aggressive design for cost initiative, which has led to highly optimized costs for specific products for specific countries, which gives us structural capability to serve customer needs again at the right value and cost.

Operator

The next question is from Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

Unknown Analyst

This is Stephen on on behalf of Krish. The first one that I had was for Bruce, previously in the prepared remarks, you talked about a 50% AI PC mix target by year-end. I'm just kind of curious, like in terms of the configurations of those AI PC, does that include a lot of AI workstations and what's sort of the attach rate of discrete AI accelerators in -- within that IPC mix?

Bruce Broussard

Well, thank you for the question. And really is oriented to the AI PCs in totality at the workstation. So just to provide that context relative to the attach rate. The tax rate on the AI PCs are very similar to the attach rate that we see and other parts of the PC business.

And that's traditionally around 1/3 have a 30% margin kind of opportunity for us. On top of that, we also see opportunity to continue to add solutions to our IPCs that is oriented to really things like the HP IQ, which will be coming out later this year, device security, there's another area where we look at.

And even in our areas of primer we have AI-enabled print, which complements our AI and so I would say, as you look at the IPC there as Pete and Karen have talked about that they are at premium pricing and our significant value to our customers that are complemented by the attach rate that we firmly and then on top of that, we have a number of solutions that we're able to add to the ITCs that offer it to be more valuable to the customer and, frankly, more value to us.

Ketan Patel

I'll just add on top of what Bruce mentioned, AIP sees a strong performance also for us this quarter. It contributed 46% of our mix, in line with our 40% to 50% forecast for FY '26. And we are expecting it to get up to 60% to 70% in 2027 and more than 70% in 2028.

Also the work which we have accelerated with ISV partners with software companies with more than 150 of them to leverage the capabilities of the species. And as Bruce mentioned in his comments, with a growing AI workload being pushed to the edge, driven by cost, latency and privacy considerations. The lower of these pieces in customer fleets will continue to expand.

So this will be margin accretive to us, and that's what we'll continue to focus in terms of AI PC mix as well as workstations, which are critical categories for growth.

Unknown Analyst

Got you. Maybe for the color, [indiscernible] and for a follow-up, I had a question on the strong double-digit growth that you guys are seeing in both the EMEA and APJ markets. If I recall correctly, the Windows 10 refresh was a big driver of that in the near term.

Kind of curious like in the current quarter and maybe like the quarter after as well, is when does the refresh still a big driver there? Or is that going to play out in the near term? And any other thoughts on demand pricing to be helpful.

Karen Parkhill

Yes. Thanks for the question, Stephen. We now see roughly 70% of the Win 11 refresh complete. That's been a good catalyst for the last couple of years, and we are seeing it still drive small and medium business demand.

I would say, that said, the Win 11 catalyst is really being increasingly augmented by a rising demand for AI PCs, Edge AI and genic workloads requiring more capable PCs. So we honestly see these tailwinds to shape the market in the coming years.

And we're proud to have an increased penetration of AI PCs today as part of our shipments, as Katen just mentioned and a growing part as we look ahead.

Operator

Your next question today comes from Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

Wamsi Mohan

I was wondering if you could talk about channel inventory levels in both PC and print and how they're shaking out maybe relative to where you would ideally like them and I have a follow-up.

Karen Parkhill

Thanks, Wamsi. I would say that we are definitely disciplined in how we manage inventory across our channels. And in an inflationary cost environment, we would expect inventory to be higher than normal, and that's exactly what we see in PS right now.

But that said, the inventory levels in the channel remain well controlled. They're within our demand outlook, and they continue to support the supply continuity that we really want in a constrained memory environment.

And in print, our channel inventory remains at healthy levels and within the range that we would consider normal.

Wamsi Mohan

Okay. As a follow-up, we heard a lot about AI and IPC as positive mix. I'm just wondering, are you seeing these customers already quantifying ROI from local inference deployments and what kind of use cases are driving that?

Or is it more so that customers are selecting AI PCs because that's becoming the default specification in refresh cycles. Just how much utilities being provided today towards ROI from IPCs versus future proof debt?

Ketan Patel

I'll take that. So one, thank you for the question. Clearly, this is -- the PCs are now providing more value than what it was last year. Clearly, as the workloads are coming from cloud to the device, it's adding to significant value for our customers, especially on token economics, which is a big topic right now as you start deploying workloads in a customer environment.

So that's significant value which customers are seeing. On top of it, they also see advantage of keeping sensitive data closure to where it is generated, reduced dependency on network connectivity improve response times and manage AI cost, as I said earlier, more effectively.

So this we see as adoption developing in stages it right now is helping us on higher-value use cases where the return on investment of the customer is clear, such as employee productivity, engineering and design workflows or customer service, predictive maintenance kind of use cases.

As customers gain confidence in some of those use cases, these capabilities will expand across a fleet of devices and also to broader enterprise workflows. So that's how we see the current trend.

Operator

Next, you'll have a question from Asiya Merchant from Citi.

Michael Cadiz

Mike Cadiz on for Asiya with Citi. Let me just go ahead and ask both my questions at once. So the first would be, could you give more color on the upside of the free cash flow guide -- could it be more than just tariff refund related or levels in that? So that's question one.

And the second one would be on additional color, please, on the proportion of enterprise customers deploy AITC in various pilot versus at-scale kind of deployments.

Karen Parkhill

Thanks, Mike, for the question. I'll answer the free cash flow, and then I'll ask Ketan to take the second one. In terms of free cash flow, we are pleased with our performance year-to-date. It is above seasonal performance and enabled us to increase our guide for the full year.

That performance is really driven by strong Personal Systems growth along with continued focus on working capital. Our cash conversion cycle is negative 37 days, and we continue to have a strong focus on that. So it was driven by -- yes, more than the tariffs. Tariffs helped a little bit, but clearly driven by underlying performance.

Ketan, do you want to take the second question? .

Ketan Patel

Yes. On top of the comments, which I had on the IPC and the workloads, I would say that -- there are clearly unique needs, which we are addressing right now through our PC printer pay for our services and meeting room solutions for modern work.

Simultaneously, our solutions like WXP are allowing great control for IT and admins to monitor support end user, which is becoming a big need in the world where you will have humans and agents operating together.

And currently, our AI PCs are most capable for running AI models locally. And as Bruce mentioned, we have debited all of this in our first local first AI model through HPI and also Wolf security solution, which HP is implementing is unique and in protecting at a bias level inclusions.

So some of these are coming together as customers are deploying, as I said earlier, on high-value use cases and expanding this at a broader level. But one thing which we are seeing as a trend for HP, which is a great advantage for our positioning is our ability uniquely to connect the endpoint, the user experiences, enterprise manageability, security and the broader IT environment is something which is becoming a good value equation, which we are able to deliver.

Bruce Broussard

Maybe I'll just add a little bit there. I would say that we are seeing better ROI and in a number of different areas. And I think that a large one we're seeing, as Ketan mentioned, was developer customer service, but we're also seeing it in manufacturing, where our workstations are able to be incorporated in the manufacturing line or our quality control that can use it for quality control and other NII-related manufacturing.

And so we do see it there. We also see it in the retail area. And in addition, we're beginning to start to see it in the health care area. We're seeing a significant amount about interest and demand as a result of some very powerful use cases, both in the subsectors that we're focused on. in addition in the broader areas like what Ketan has talked about.

Operator

Your next question comes from Erik Woodring from Morgan Stanley.

Erik Woodring

I apologize I hopped on late, but Ketan, you sound very optimistic about fiscal '27 Personal Systems operating margins and you've in the October quarter being the trough. But if we think about unit declines accelerating component inflation is continuing, you're working through higher cost inventory.

And it's fair to probably imagine demand elasticity likely increases to these factors. It's not totally clear to me what the factors are that allow Personal Systems operating margins to improve, even NVIDIA tonight is guiding to margin pressure next year from memory cost. So can you maybe just help me please better understand the offsets to some of these pressures that we're thinking about? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Karen Parkhill

Yes. Sure, Eric. Happy to help. So obviously, we talked about the fact that we expect cost to continue to increase, but at a slower rate. So I'll start there. And at the same time, the mitigation actions that we've been taking are really starting to kick in.

So things like long-term contract revisions on the pricing side, which takes some lead time. and other cost actions that we've been working through, like product redesign and platform optimization that can also take some time starting to kick in.

And I would say, importantly, we're also going to continue to focus on what we've been driving so far, which is an increased mix of premium products with AI PCs and workstations and also a greater mix of attached offerings where we've got plenty of opportunity to drive even more.

And that's inclusive of peripherals and services. things like our WXP platform, et cetera. So it's all of these things combined that give us high confidence that we can drive improvement from here.

Erik Woodring

Okay. All right. I appreciate that. And as a quick follow-up, I know obviously, myself included there a focus on PS margins on this call. What about Print operating margins just as you think about them into next year, how do you expect them to trend? And what are some of the puts and takes to consider.

Karen Parkhill

Yes. I would say on the print margins in FY '27, I'll start by just confirming that we remain comfortable with our long-term operating profit range of 16% to 19% for print, and that still holds for our fiscal '27.

Where we land in that range can really vary quarter-to-quarter and is influenced by seasonality along with the magnitude of long-term profitable units that we're able to place in the competitive environment. But as we look more broadly to FY '27, we will remain focused on protecting operating profit through share gains and profit upfront tank printers through expansion in consumer subscriptions.

And by strengthening our position in office through some AI-enabled innovation that we've been bringing to market, along with sustaining momentum in industrial graphics and, of course, always maintaining cost discipline. So hopefully, that helps.

Operator

Our next question today comes from Katherine Murphy, Goldman Sachs.

Katherine Murphy

It was impressive to see the 18% revenue growth in the Personal Systems segment, though units were down 16%. And I was wondering if you could help quantify or otherwise rank how like-for-like price increases portfolio mix shift benefits and then the increased attach of related services benefited that implied ASP increase in the quarter?

And if 1/3 of gross profit in this segment coming from those attached businesses is still the right way to think about the mix? And then I have a quick follow-up.

Karen Parkhill

Thanks, Katherine. I'll take that question and Ketan, feel free to add, if you want. I would say all of the things that we are doing really drove our revenue growth, and we're not going to quantify how much was related to each.

But clearly, mix played a role as we drive more premium share, more AI PCs more hybrid, more workforce experience platform, all of those things played a role, along with pricing. We've been continuing to increase pricing given our higher input costs and that also played a role too. Ketan, anything you would add?

Ketan Patel

Yes, just to give some color to the mix thing that how mix is helping us in the overall margin performance is our sequential gains on premium categories has been pretty strong. We grew 2.6 points of share on premium and 1.8 points of share on workstations.

Those are categories which are growing and something which we are pleased that we continue to take share. And to your other comment around non-hardware business contribution, yes, the attach businesses, which is a combination of peripherals, collaboration solutions, services such as WXP and others have contributed 1/3 of the overall PS gross profit.

And that's in line with what we have been forecasting that those are the businesses which will continue to focus.

Katherine Murphy

Great. And then I'll attempt to ask if there's any preliminary thoughts on industry PC volumes as we think about fiscal 2027.

Karen Parkhill

Yes. I would say on FY '27, obviously, we're still in our planning period. It's premature to give you specifics on our outlook for the fiscal year. And on unit volumes, that continues to move around. So premature for us to talk about that at this point.

Ketan Patel

I would just only add that there are 2 demand vectors as you look at 2027. As Karen mentioned previously, a growth catalyst being the shift towards AI workloads and hence, some of those categories are on AI PCs and premium PCs and workstations.

So that's going to be a tailwind. At the same time, there has been demand delay or as some of the customers deferred product refresh, given the price increases this year. And as costs start stabilizing over the next period, you will start seeing some of those refreshes coming over a period of time. So that's how we look at 2 different demand signals coming through.

Operator

Your next question comes from David Vogt from UBS.

David Vogt

So Karen, I just want to maybe just a clarifying question about '27 profitability and margins. Can you help us walk through your comment in greater detail about protecting print margins.

Does that exclude the benefit of the tariff contract count in '26 is that how we should be thinking about your comment in '27? Or is that inclusive of the benefit that you're seeing this year from the tariff refunds? And if you could help us understand, jump on late, and I apologize was the tariff refund largely in print?

I would imagine there's a big chunk in PC also, but I didn't quite hear that in the prepared remarks.

Karen Parkhill

Yes. So just on your question on print margins for next year when we talk about our long-term 16% to 19% range, that is without or excluding any onetime benefit that we might get from tariff refunds. We did have some benefit from tariff refunds this quarter and have signaled more next quarter.

It does largely benefit print. There is a smaller portion that benefited PS, but it is largely benefiting print. And -- so you saw our print margins in Q3 be higher than expectations, driven by that benefit. But once you exclude those benefits, they were largely in line with expectations.

David Vogt

Perfect. That's what we thought. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up. In terms of mix, I think we were -- we were worried about mix to hardware in the quarter, obviously, supplies are sub season, well, hardware is seasonally stronger relative to supplies.

How do we think about the input cost on the hardware side relative to the business? Because I know we've talked about in the past the impact of currencies, the impact of commodities like oil, how are you thinking about that in context of when we're thinking about fiscal '27? I know you don't want to give a guide. But like when I think about those moving parts that are a little bit out of your control, how should we think about those contributions to the outlook?

Karen Parkhill

Yes. I would just say, in general, in Print, we are going to continue to focus on momentum in our key growth areas and introducing new products in our more traditional print business. That includes expanding our tank portfolio and driving further traction from our recent rollout of our AI-enabled laser portfolio in office.

And then in terms of just supplies, we have said for a long term that we expect supplies revenue to decline low to mid-single digits in constant currency. This year, in particular, in FY '26, we see it declining low single digit in constant currency, but our long-term view of supplies hasn't changed.

Operator

And the next question is Ananda Baruah with Capital.

Ananda Baruah

Appreciate you taking the question here. I guess going back to what sort of the revenue texture can look like as we go through '27. Do you think if the situation where corporate is refreshing to higher-spec PCs now as a trend such that it's not -- you got a -- you guys are seeing higher ASPs not only because of memory prices, but because it's actually what customers are increasingly watching.

And I guess what I'm trying to get like an echo sense of, is there increasingly a much more -- is there more appetite natural appetite for higher pricing as the thing for memory pricing increases as we go through '27 to '28

Ketan Patel

Yes, I'll take that question. Thank you for that. Yes, we definitely see the effect of how customers are choosing those higher configuration products, largely because of the need to conduct AI at the edge to support increasing AI workloads.

Our customers in their environment are now as they're implementing AI in their workflows, they are seeing this becoming more prevalent than before. Also increasing use of agents increasing concern about token costs, cybersecurity, privacy and a lot of applications, which requires a different kind of latency needs leading to a PC refresh with more capable PCs having these capabilities.

And that's why, to your point, yes, we see demand shifting to those higher-end devices too as part of the natural mix.

Ananda Baruah

And this is a tricky one here. Just a quick follow-up. But are you guys -- do you guys yet have visibility to enterprise users adopting AI PCs or talking about AI PC. You sort of quick touched on it as a way to get just to get off basically just to model off the Internet, right?

So they don't have to observe token costs so they can actually run the native and just avoid the token costs. Is that a meaningful part of conversations yet?

Ketan Patel

Yes, there are 2 meaningful conversations which are going on right now as customers bring these workloads. One, this increasing cost of token and how bringing models locally on the edge can help them optimize cost as well as take care of customer -- take care of employee needs of requirements to use different AI models for their work.

So that's definitely one of the conversation. And the second big one is, as they deploy agents more in that environment, how to govern those agents more securely and drive the right level of enterprise manageability. I think those are the top 2 use cases, which we believe are happening as we speak, apart from the industry vertical workflows, which Bruce talked about earlier.

Operator

And everyone, that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to hand the conference back to Mr. Bruce Broussard for any additional or closing remarks.

Bruce Broussard

Thank you, and thank you all for the thoughtful questions and joining us today. As we -- you can tell from our voices, we are excited about the future and AI [ FDAs ] creates some incredible opportunities and HP is well positioned in this area. As we talked about with our strong portfolio, our network reach, trusted brand, we are all equipped to help our customers thrive in the AI era.

And thank you, as always, to our customers, partners and investors for the continued confidence she'd place in HP, and we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress, and have a good afternoon. Thank you.

Operator

Once again, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation today. You may now disconnect.