Flex LNG (FLNG) 2026 年第二季法說會：營收強勁，維持財測指引

重點摘要

• 2026 年第二季營收達 1.068 億美元（若扣除歐盟碳排放配額 (EUA) 則為 1.027 億美元），創下 Flex LNG 自 2021 年第四季以來第二佳的單季表現。
• 全船隊平均每日等價期租租金 (TCE) 為 86,100 美元。淨利總計 4,490 萬美元，折合每股盈餘 0.83 美元；調整後淨利為 4,250 萬美元，折合每股盈餘 0.79 美元。
• Flex Volunteer 與 Flex Artemis 強勁的現貨收益支撐了營收，同時 Flex Constellation 與 Flex Aurora 的新合約也帶來了整季貢獻。
• Flex LNG 維持其 2026 全年財測不變，預期營收為 3.45 億至 3.7 億美元，每日 TCE 為 73,000 至 78,000 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.55 億至 2.8 億美元。
• 董事會宣布發放每股 0.75 美元的季度股利，為該公司連續第 20 次發放此金額的股利。過去 12 個月累計發放股利達每股 3 美元。
• 合約涵蓋率目前達到 51 年的最低確定在手訂單，若所有選擇權皆獲執行，更可增加至 78 年。2026 年剩餘可用船天數中，約有 89% 已獲得合約保障。

關鍵財務數據

Flex LNG 本季償還了 2,800 萬美元的預定定期債務，並向股東發放了 4,100 萬美元。其利率衍生性商品投資組合的名目價值為 7.75 億美元，平均固定利率為 2.46%，季末市值為 2,200 萬美元。

業務與營運表現

Flex Volunteer 與 Flex Artemis 得益於第二季強勁的現貨市場。兩艘船預計將於第三季末釋出，公司正在進行推廣，爭取現貨租賃及新的長期合約。

Flex Vigilant 於 6 月在丹麥完成定檢入塢，標誌著旗下 13 艘船隊的所有五年定期特檢全面完成。2026 年的三次入塢檢修平均每艘花費約 600 萬美元、工期各為 17 天。2027 年未安排任何入塢檢修，而首次十年入塢檢修則預計於 2028 年進行。

今年迄今全球 LNG 貿易量下降不到 1%。管理層表示，卡達的出口量減少約 2,900 萬噸，而美國的出口量增加 23%，即近 1,400 萬噸。美國供應份額的成長可望透過更長的大西洋至亞洲航線，對航運需求形成支撐。

液化天然氣 (LNG) 運輸船的新船訂單量依然居高不下，約為 285 艘，相當於現有船隊的 38% 左右。管理層指出，其中大多數已鎖定卡達或其他長期營運合約，剩餘未簽約的船隻相對較少。

管理層財測

Flex LNG 維持以下 2026 全年財測：

管理層預計至 2027 年年中，其利率對沖比率將維持在 70% 左右。公司表示，若市場條件有利，將考慮在 2029 年第一季債務到期前進行額外對沖或再融資。

風險與關鍵關注點

鑑於現貨市場趨於軟化以及新造船交船日程繁重，管理層對市場展望維持「橘色」等級評估。蘇伊士運河以東與以西地區可用船隻數量的增加，近期對現貨費率造成壓力。

地緣政治不確定性持續偏高。管理層指出，卡達與阿聯酋的 LNG 合計出口量較正常水準低約 63%，並表示認為霍爾木茲海峽將在 2026 年整年維持關閉狀態。卡達供應恢復正常的時間點仍具不確定性。

歐洲天然氣庫存容量率為 61%，低於去年同期的 73%，創下 15 年多以來的最低水準。管理層預計，歐洲與亞洲對彈性美國 LNG 貨源的爭奪，仍將是航運市場的重要驅動因素。

問答環節亮點

• 霍爾木茲海峽風險曝險：管理層確認，自 2 月底以來，Flex LNG 旗下的 13 艘船隻均未在該區域進行交易航行。若租船人指示船隻進入該區域，任何額外的高風險區域保險費用將由租船人負擔。
• 現貨市場展望：管理層將第三季描述為季節性過渡期，並指出往返現貨費率已從去年同期的每日約 120,000 美元降至每日約 30,000 美元。公司仍寄望於歷史上較強勁的冬季市場能為其兩艘待租船隻在第四季的營運提供支撐。
• 股利永續性：董事會每季都會檢視股利政策。管理層指出，公司的現金狀況、資產負債表及合約在手訂單皆支持本次宣布發放每股 0.75 美元，同時強調未來的股利仍需每季重新評估。

電話會議完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

H. Foss

Welcome back to Flex LNG's Second Quarter 2026 Results Presentation. Hope you all have a great summer. My name is Marius Foss. I'm the CEO of Flex LNG. And today, I'm joined by our CFO, Knut Traaholt, who will walk you through the financials later in the presentation. Today, we will summarize the second quarter results and provide an update on the LNG shipping market. As always, we will conclude this webcast with a Q&A session.

Knut Traaholt

If you would like to ask questions, please use the chat functions on the webcast or send questions to -- by e-mail to ir@flexlng.com. Before we start, we would like to highlight the following. We are using certain non-GAAP measures such as TCE, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income. These are supplements to the earnings reported in accordance with U.S. GAAP. The reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are available in the earnings report released today. There are also limitations to the completeness of our presentation. Therefore, we encourage you to read the quarterly report together with today's presentation.

And with that, back to you, Marius.

H. Foss

Thank you, Knut. Let's begin with the highlights of the quarter. We are happy to present very strong results for the second quarter. We sailed in revenues of close to $107 million or close to $103 million, excluding the EUAs. This is our second best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021. The fleet average TCE during the quarter ended up at $86,100 per day. Net income for the second quarter came in at $44.9 million, implying an earnings per share of $0.83.

When adjusting for unrealized gains and interest rates swaps and FX, we ended up with adjusted net income of $42.5 million or adjusted earnings per share at $0.79.

Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer have traded in a strong spot market in the second quarter and contributed to our solid quarterly results. We continue to see elevated geopolitical uncertainty in the LNG space as the conflict in Iran causes disruption to the LNG flow from the region.

Lastly, with the dry docking of Flex Vigilant in June, we have completed all scheduled 5-year special surveys for our fleet. We maintain our full year guidance from last quarter and expect revenues to come in between $345 million and $370 million. Similarly, we expect the TCE to come in somewhere between $73,000 and $78,000 per day. We expect adjusted EBITDA to come in between $255 million and $280 million.

With our strong quarter, contract coverage and solid balance sheet, the Board has declared another dividend of $0.75 per share. This is the 20th consecutive dividend of $0.75 per share, and we have now distributed around $850 million since 2021, including special dividends. Our last 12 months dividend is $3 per share, implying a dividend yield of around 9.7%.

Flex Vigilant completed her dry dock in Denmark in June, and this was the third and final dry docking for 2026. The average cost per dry docking came in around $6 million per vessel as guided, and we spent averagely 17 days in dry dock per vessel. Flex Vigilant marks the final 5-year special survey in our fleet of 13 vessels. Looking ahead, we have no dry dockings coming up in 2027, and we will commence our first 10-year docking in 2028.

Let's have a look at our contract backlog. Looking at our total contract coverage, we have 51 years of minimum firm backlog, which may grow to 78 years if all options are declared. In the near term, we have close to 89% coverage for the remaining available days in 2026. Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer have both been trading in the spot market in the second quarter and will come open at the end of the third quarter. We are now marketing the vessels both for spot and new term contracts.

With our good contract coverage for the remainder of the year, we maintain our guiding which we upgraded last quarter. This means that we expect full year revenues to come in between $345 million to $370 million. Similarly, we expect TCE to come in somewhere between $73,000 and $78,000 per day. Lastly, we expect the adjusted EBITDA to come in between $255 million and $280 million. We are pleased to announce that the Board has declared a dividend of $0.75 per share.

Let us briefly revisit decision factors for the dividends. We maintain the orange level for market outlook. This reflects a softer spot market and heavy schedule of newbuilding deliveries. Looking ahead, we note that low European storage levels going into the cold winter season. Confidence in the long-term structural demand story remains intact, supported by the third wave of U.S. LNG export capacity currently under construction. We keep other considerations in orange given the continued elevated geopolitical risk. There is still uncertainty around the duration of the Iran conflict and the timing of normalization of the Qatar supply.

Taking all factors into account, the Board has declared another quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share. This brings dividends paid over the last 12 months to $3 per share. The dividend will be paid on or about 17th of September to shareholders of record as of 3rd of September.

And with that, I hand it over to you, Knut, for final financial updates.

Knut Traaholt

Thank you, Marius. And the second quarter was significantly improved quarter-over-quarter, mainly driven by higher revenues. And revenues were $106.8 million or $102.7 million, excluding EUAs. The higher revenues were driven by high spot earnings for Flex Volunteer and Flex Artemis, while both Flex Constellation and Flex Aurora contributed by having a full quarter of earnings under the new contracts that commenced in March.

On the cost side, vessel OpEx was higher quarter-over-quarter as the second quarter was impacted by higher crew travel costs related to the disruptions in the Middle East. The average OpEx per day in the second quarter was $16,260, while the average OpEx for the first 6 months of the year was around $16,100 per day. We maintain our OpEx guidance of $16,000 per day for the full year.

Interest expense continued to improve, reflecting lower loan margins and active management of our RCF facilities. We booked $4.7 million in gains on our interest rate derivatives, of which $2.3 million was realized gains and $2.4 million was unrealized gains. Net income came in at $44.9 million or $0.83 per share, and adjusting for noncash items like unrealized gains from the interest derivative portfolio, the adjusted net income was $42.5 million or equivalent to adjusted earnings per share of $0.79. This is more than double than of the first quarter. So overall, this was a very strong quarter, impacted by improved revenues from the spot market, new contracts, completion of dry docking and continued cost control and improved financial efficiency.

On the cash flow, during the quarter, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $63 million, up from $37 million in the first quarter. The increase was mainly driven by higher revenues, as explained on the previous slide. This excludes $19 million in positive change in working capital and $5 million of CapEx related to the dry dockings this year. And the reduction in receivables during the quarter was related to timing of advanced charter hire receipts.

We repaid $28 million in scheduled debt installments and distributed $41 million to our shareholders. And then in sum, our net cash flow was $8 million in the quarter, and that resulted in a cash position of $397 million at the end of the quarter. So looking at our balance sheet, we maintain a clean balance sheet with mainly ships and close to $400 million in cash. And our debt financing is comprised of a combination of bank loans, which gives us flexibility and attractive long-term leases.

Our first debt maturity is in the first quarter of 2029. And if we look at the book equity ratio, it's robust at 27.4%. And as noted before, our book values reflect the historical cost adjusted with regular depreciation. Our interest rate swap portfolio is unchanged and was valued at $22 million at the end of the second quarter. The notional value of the portfolio is $775 million, with an average fixed rate of 2.46%. We expect to maintain a hedge ratio of around 70% into mid-next year.

And with that, I hand it back to you, Marius, for the market outlook.

H. Foss

Thank you, Knut. Let's have a look at the LNG trade. Global LNG trade volumes are broadly flat year-to-date, down less than 1% compared with the same period last year. On the supply side, the key development has been significant reduction in the Qatari exports, down around 29 million tonnes. This shortfall has to a large extent been offset by strong growth from the U.S., where exports are up 23% or close to 14 million tonnes. We have also seen continued growth from Australia and Russia.

Other exporters have contributed strongly and are up 6 million tonnes from last year. These include LNG Canada, but also West Africa exporters, including Nigeria and Senegal. Industry sources report that global export capacity ran at 96% utilization in July, excluding Qatar. This is above 90% utilization seen last year and a 5-year average of 86%. On the demand side, imports into JKT remained resilient, while Europe and China are down compared to last year. At the same time, India and other importing markets have continued to grow. The key takeaway is that despite a significant disruption from one of the world's largest LNG exporters, Qatar, global trade volumes have remained resilient. And more importantly, for shipping, the growing share of U.S. supply means more LNG coming into the Atlantic Basin. This will likely have a positive ton-mile effect when those volumes move into Asia.

Let's have a look a bit closer to the supply side. The reduction in Middle East LNG volumes has been significant. Combined exports from Qatar and UAE are currently down around 63% compared to normal levels. As you can see from the left-hand side, exports dropped very sharply earlier in the year. And while volumes have started to recover, they remain below historical levels. At the same time, the U.S. has continued to ramp up LNG exports. U.S. liquefaction capacity is up around 14 million tonnes year-on-year, supported by the ramp-up of new capacity, particularly in the Plaquemines. It is also worth to mention that the long anticipated Golden Pass is slowly but steadily increasing its production. We expect to see increased loading from Golden Pass going forward and from Port Arthur as it comes on stream next year. So despite substantial loss from Middle East supply, this has mitigated by strong U.S. growth, and that shift is positive for the shipping demand.

Let us have a look at the demand side on the competition between Europe and Asia for the LNG. Europe entered the year with relatively low gas inventories. Inventories are today 61% full, the lowest level in over 15 years and below the 73% seen last year. This means Europe still has a substantial requirement to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter season. At the same time, U.S. LNG is highly flexible and can move between Europe and Asia depending on the relative pricing.

Looking at the chart on the left-hand side, there have historically been significant swings in the U.S. LNG flows between the 2 regions. So far this year, both Europe and Asia have attracted additional U.S. LNG volumes, although the balance has shifted through the year. Looking forward, this sets up a continued tug-of-war of U.S. LNG exports. If European storage remain low, Europe will need to keep bidding on Atlantic cargoes, while lack of Qatari volumes could pull more of those volumes into Asia.

If you are looking at the newbuildings, we stand out on this slide, ordering activity remains very strong, even with newbuilding prices holding around $250 million and the term rates remain more moderate levels. We have already seen around 60 newbuildings ordered so far this year. A number of these are made without any employment contracts. This year, orders are well above last year's figures of 35 vessels. That tells us there's still significant confidence in the long-term LNG shipping markets. At the same time, elevated newbuilding prices continue to provide support for the value of modern existing tonnage, including our fleet.

The order book remains substantial with around 285 vessels to be delivered going forward, equivalent to roughly 38% of the existing fleet. However, the majority of these vessels are already tied up with Qatar or other long-term employment, and the number of open vessels remains fairly limited.

Contracting activity remains at very high levels. LNG SPAs volumes signed in the first half of 2026 are already above 30 million tonnes per year. This continued appetite for long-term LNG supply is important because it provides the commercial basis required for new projects to reach FID. We have already seen around 28 million tonnes of projects that reached FID so far this year, including Venture Global's expansion of the CP2, Commonwealth and Delfin. And there are additional projects that could reach FID later this year, up to 39 million tonnes. These potential projects include LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lismis in Canada and Delfin Phase 2 and the Brownsville in the U.S. This would take the potential FIDs in 2026 up to around 67 million tonnes. The key takeaway is that the next wave of LNG supply continues to gain momentum, supported by strong customer contracting and a healthy pipeline of projects moving forward to FID.

Let's have a look at the spot market for the modern 2 strokes. We have seen increasing vessel availability in both West and East of Suez, and that continues to put a weight on the spot rates. It is worth mentioning that the number of vessels available today is in line with the 5-year historical averages. This comes at a time when the LNG fleet is growing. This shows that the newbuildings are being absorbed by going straight into the program after being delivered from the shipyards. We did see a sharp spike in the rates earlier this year. But since then, rates have normalized, and we have seen some pressure on the spot rates over the last few weeks.

As we move into the second half of the year, we would normally expect some historical seasonal tightening. We have 2 vessels coming open at the end of the third quarter, well positioned for a potential strong winter market. With that, let's turn to a Q&A session.

Knut Traaholt

Thank you, Marius, and thank you to everyone who has submitted questions on our webcast and also to our Investor Relations e-mail. It's been an active or a lot of things happening during the quarter, particularly in the Middle East and with the Strait of Hormuz. So we have a number of questions coming in around that and also how that has impacted our operations. So in specific, the question is, do we have any trade in that area or to the Strait of Hormuz? And have we had any ships being stuck inside the Strait of Hormuz?

H. Foss

Yes. Thank you. Now I'm pleased to confirm that all vessels in the Flex fleet of 13 vessels, none of them have been trading inside since the end of February. So our charterers' clients are trading elsewhere for time being.

Knut Traaholt

And there's also then a follow-up question around this as there are a number of additional insurances that are needed to be trading to the Strait of Hormuz. And the question is specifically who pays for this insurance and what insurance is needed to be trading here?

H. Foss

Yes, it's required to have insurance when you sail into high-risk areas. So if and when our ships are ordered to other high-risk areas, this extra coverage will be paid for by the charterers who are instructing the vessel to such areas.

Knut Traaholt

And sticking to the Strait of Hormuz, it's more on the market view and the outlook there for, first of all, the resumption of LNG export out of Qatar and UAE, but also more on the normalization of the transit through the Strait of Hormuz. What's your view on that?

H. Foss

Well, we believe that Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout 2026. So we could potentially look at the interesting market going forward for LNG and other shipping segments.

Knut Traaholt

Moving on, you mentioned in the presentation that we have seen a slightly softer spot market now. So there's questions on what your expectations are for the LNG shipping market for the third quarter and then the fourth quarter?

H. Foss

Yes. The Q3 is normally a shoulder month before we head into the winter season. So Q3 has softened up from the spot market has been maybe on $120,000 for round trip during the last Q3 and has now come down to $30,000. Our next ship coming open in the end of Q3. So we are preparing for the Q4 market, which historically has been profitable. So we are hopeful and hoping that we can contribute a little bit more there on our Q3 and Q4 results later. But yes, if Hormuz remains closed, I think this will automatically find its way back to where the LNG market should be.

Knut Traaholt

Good. Then we have some questions on the financing. First of all, on our interest rate derivative portfolio. As we say, we have 70% coverage until mid-next year. And the question relates to when we expect to add more interest rate hedging to our books? In general, we are trading when the markets are favorable. We are very pleased with the coverage we have today. But obviously, when there are opportunities either for adding more on the short-term or longer-term interest rate hedging, that is our aim to do.

And there is also a follow-up questions on our debt maturities in Q1 2029, when we will address that? It's a bit early to address that refinancing now unless that we see an attractive opportunity to add more or better terms to our financings. That is something we are continuously evaluating. And if there are attractive opportunities, we will act on them.

And final question, it's a recurring questions. It's about dividend sustainability and the outlook for future dividends. As we have repeatedly said, each dividend is declared by the Board each quarter. We are fairly transparent on the decision factors, which we have also presented today. That is a repeat of the decision factors that we had last year -- sorry, last quarter, which was basically a downgrade of certain factors. However, with the strong balance sheet and cash position and also the contract backlog, the Board was pleased to confirm a dividend for this quarter of $0.75. Future dividends will be decided by the Board, and reassess all these factors, including then our backlog for the open vessels.

And with that, that concludes the Q&A session.

H. Foss

Thank you. Thank you for participating in our Q2 presentation. We would like to welcome you back in November for our Q3 presentation. Thank you.