Ripple Price Forecast: XRP risks further losses as bears eye $1

• XRP extends its decline, trading below $1.09 on Monday after falling over 10% last week.
• US-listed XRP spot ETF recorded net outflows of $529,510 last week, ending a two-week streak of inflows.
• Weakening metrics and unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop continue to weigh on XRP’s recovery prospects.

Ripple (XRP) extends its decline, trading below $1.09 on Monday after falling more than 10% last week. Weakening institutional demand adds downside pressure, as XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded $529,510 in net outflows last week, ending a two-week streak of inflows. Meanwhile, deteriorating metrics and an unfavorable macroeconomic backdrop continue to limit XRP’s recovery prospects, with bears increasingly eyeing the psychological $1 level.

Cooling institutional demand

Institutional demand for XRP cooled last week. SoSoValue data shows XRP spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $529,510 last week, ending a two-week run of net inflows. If this outflow trend continues and intensifies throughout this week, it could put additional pressure on XRP, pushing its price into a deeper correction.

Weakening metrics cap XRP

CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP read 0.91 on Monday, nearing the lowest level over a month. A ratio below one indicates bearish sentiment, as traders bet that asset prices will fall.

CryptoQuant’s summary data also shows a bearish outlook for Ripple. XRP’s spot and futures markets show large whale orders and sell-side dominance. In addition, the spot market shows heating conditions, highlighting a bearish, cautious sentiment bias among Ripple traders.

Macroeconomic conditions cap XRP

On the macroeconomic front, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released last week weighed on risk assets. Stronger-than-expected US payrolls reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep interest rates higher for longer. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as XRP and reduce investor appetite for riskier investments. 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in about 78.7% odds that the Fed will raise rates in December, up from 72.8% before the US jobs report. This macroeconomic backdrop could continue to weigh on XRP’s recovery prospects.

XRP technical outlook: Bears eye $1 psychological mark

XRP price trades at $1.095 at the time of writing on Monday, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds well below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between $1.302 and $1.360.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 26 sits in oversold territory on the daily chart, hinting at stretched downside conditions. Yet, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains negative, reinforcing persistent selling pressure while the price consolidates near recent lows.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $1.160, with stronger supply aligning at $1.300 and the 50-day EMA at $1.302, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.307 and the 200-day EMA at $1.360, which together cap any sustained recovery attempts.

On the downside, the nearest notable support is the psychological $1.000 handle, where buyers would be expected to defend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)