Alarm.com (ALRM) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：上调2026年业绩指引

核心要点

• Alarm.com（NASDAQ: ALRM）公布2026年第三季度SaaS及授权许可收入为1.912亿美元，同比增长9%。总营收增长9%至2.794亿美元。
• 调整后EBITDA增长19.3%至6620万美元，利润率为23.7%。管理层表示，利润率的提升主要反映了关税相关硬件成本收回带来的380万美元临时收益。
• 收入留存率保持在95%左右的区间。增长型业务约占营收的三分之一，并继续保持25%至30%的综合增速。
• 管理层上调了2026年全年的SaaS及授权许可收入、总营收、调整后EBITDA以及Non-GAAP摊薄后每股收益（EPS）指引。
• Alarm.com收购了CellGate，将其商业产品线扩展至基于蜂窝网络连接的大门出入控制与可视对讲系统。预计CellGate将在2027年贡献1500万至2000万美元的SaaS及授权许可收入。
• 2027年初步指引预计总营收约为11.75亿至11.9亿美元，调整后EBITDA为2.4亿至2.45亿美元。

关键财务业绩

2026年前九个月的自由现金流总计约1.563亿美元，相当于调整后EBITDA的90%累计转化率。Alarm.com在第三季度以1350万美元回购了约24.1万股股票，使年内累计回购规模达到约120万股，总额5850万美元。

业务与运营表现

Alarm.com核心的北美住宅业务表现符合管理层预期。强劲的留存率、新增账户开拓以及更高的视频相关每用户平均收入（ARPU）支撑了经常性收入的增长。

该公司扩大了视频产品组合，推出了电池供电的可视门铃和升级版室内摄像头。该门铃支持熟人面部识别，并计划引入AI威慑功能。高端室内摄像头则提供400万像素画质、集成照明以及物理隐私快门。

Alarm.com还在其AI威慑解决方案中新增了渐进式语音响应功能。当检测到的人员持续在防护区域逗留时，系统可从中性提示逐步升级为更严厉的警告。

收购CellGate为商业地产、小型企业、多户住宅社区、牧场和庄园增添了大门出入控制与可视对讲产品。管理层估计，全美多达6000家围栏和门禁服务公司定期安装自动门。在Alarm.com推进其平台集成期间，CellGate将作为独立业务运营。

国际业务的订阅用户数突破100万，并继续保持快于整体合并业务的增速。然而，管理层指出国际业务在各项增长举措中相对滞后，主要原因在于欧洲住宅消费者承受压力，同时业务也需要加快扩张步伐。该公司正重点发力商业客户、视频搭售率，以及与国际运营商和多系统运营商（MSO）的合作机会。

在商业消防领域，已有超过600家服务提供商安装了至少一台付费设备。管理层表示，早期的合作伙伴参与度和ARPU表现均符合预期，但仍需获得额外的UL认证以全面开拓市场潜力。

管理层业绩指引

更新后的2026年SaaS及授权许可收入预期中值上调了200万美元，调整后EBITDA指引上调了600万美元。管理层还将Non-GAAP每股收益预期较8月份的指引上调了约0.10美元。

2027年初步预期中包含了来自CellGate的1500万至2000万美元SaaS及授权许可收入。管理层预计该收购在未来几年内将对SaaS毛利率和调整后EBITDA利润率产生温和稀释，但对硬件毛利率将起到增厚作用。

风险与关注重点

第三季度硬件利润率和调整后EBITDA受益于关税相关的临时成本收回，管理层预计这不会持续。失去这一收益，加上调价前存储成本的上升，预计将在第四季度对EBITDA造成约660万美元的环比逆风。

管理层表示，到2027年底使调整后EBITDA退出利润率接近21%，将在很大程度上取决于零部件成本、关税转嫁以及包括对CellGate投资在内的内生性投资决策。

如果2027年硬件收入超出公司预期，管理层预计调整后EBITDA绝对金额将保持持平，而利润率将面临额外压力。Alarm.com打算将异常的外部成本上涨直接转嫁，而不附加额外的加价。

分析师问答亮点

• 2027年SaaS增长驱动因素：管理层列举了高于历史区间的留存率、增长型业务的稳健执行、住宅新账户开拓以及更高的视频相关ARPU。
• 增长型业务：预计这些业务将占2026年营收的约三分之一，并增长25%至30%。对于2027年，管理层的初步展望假定综合增速将回落至20%至25%的区间。
• 住宅用户ARPU：新账户ARPU年增长率约为5%。视频ARPU在两年内增长约30%，推动新账户ARPU累计增长约10%至5.50美元左右。
• 与ADT的合作关系：管理层预计在Thrive交易后将继续与ADT保持接洽并探索潜在合作机会，但目前尚未在模型中预设ADT对Alarm.com贡献的根本性改变。
• 苹果智能家居平台：Alarm.com对支持又一个家庭交互界面表示期待，并表示此类设备可以提升用户黏性。管理层认为所提及的DIY摄像头产品与其目标客户群体并无直接交集。

财报电话会议完整实录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Please be advised, today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Matthew Zartman. Please go ahead.

Matthew Zartman

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Alarm.com's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. Joining us today are Steve Trundle, our CEO, and Kevin Bradley, our CFO.

During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, estimates, and other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We refer you to the risk factors discussed in our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, our other SEC filings, and today's earnings release. The call is subject to these risk factors, and we encourage you to review them. Alarm.com assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements or other information that speak as of their respective dates.

In addition, several non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on the call. The reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures can be found in today's release on our Investor Relations website. I'll now turn the call over to Steve Trundle. Steve?

Stephen Trundle

Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, and welcome to everyone. We're pleased to report third quarter results that exceeded our expectations. SaaS and license revenue was $191.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $66.2 million. I want to thank our service provider partners and our employees for their contributions to these results.

Today, I'll discuss our operating performance, recent additions to our video platform, and our acquisition of CellGate, which we announced today. I'll also provide some thoughts on recent industry developments before turning things over to Kevin to review financials, including our initial look at 2027. During the quarter, we continued to see solid results across our increasingly diverse business.

Third quarter SaaS revenue grew 9% year over year. We expect to finish the year strong and have raised our full-year SaaS revenue guidance. Our core North American residential business performed in line with our expectations, supported by continued strength in revenue retention. During the quarter, our growth initiatives continued to contribute at a size and pace in line with expectations, as indicated by our increased outlook for SaaS revenue in 2026.

Our strong adjusted EBITDA performance benefited from certain one-time hardware cost recoveries and timing effects within hardware gross margin. We do not expect these Q3 timing benefits to persist, and our outlook assumes hardware gross margins return to more typical levels going forward. Kevin will discuss this in more detail.

Shifting to product development, we recently released several new video cameras that give our service providers more installation options and a broader range of price points, allowing them to bring our video services to more customers. Our new battery-powered video doorbell simplifies installation and expands the locations where partners can offer video coverage, including side entrances and detached garages without doorbell wiring. It supports our advanced video analytics capabilities, including familiar face recognition, with AI deterrent support coming soon, and its customer-installable design gives service provider partners another way to offer video upgrades to existing accounts without a service visit.

We also launched an upgraded indoor camera on the premium side of our residential lineup. It combines sharp 4-megapixel image quality, integrated illumination for deterrence, and a privacy shutter that physically blocks the camera's view. This premium model complements the lower-cost indoor camera that we launched earlier this year, giving partners more options to match customers' needs and budgets.

We also enhanced our AI deterrent solution with progressive voice responses. When our video software detects a person in a protected area, it can now initially engage them with a neutral-sounding voice message and then progress to stronger-worded warnings if the person continues to linger. The progression makes the response sound natural and credible, reinforcing the deterrent when a stronger warning is needed.

In our commercial business, we recently acquired CellGate, a provider of gate access and video intercom solutions for commercial properties, small businesses, multifamily communities, ranches, and estate properties. Its cellular-connected products serve vehicle and pedestrian gates with an access control capability without requiring a network line or access to the property's Wi-Fi.

CellGate brings together several characteristics we look for in an acquisition: a specialized product offering, an established relationship with the trade channel, and an opportunity to build recurring services around connected devices. The acquisition extends our reach into the fence and gate contractor market, a channel we have not traditionally served. We estimate that as many as 6,000 fence and gate servicing companies regularly install automated gates in the United States.

CellGate will operate as a standalone business similar to OpenEye, Checked, and others. We plan to support its growth over time by driving integrations with parts of the Alarm.com platform. I want to welcome the CellGate team to Alarm.com.

Lastly, I want to comment on the recent announcement that ADT will receive a major investment from State Farm. In the last 12 months, we have seen substantial capital flow into the residential side of our industry. First, SimpliSafe was acquired by GTCR, and now ADT is being acquired at a substantial premium to its unaffected public market value. I want to congratulate the ADT management team on achieving a great outcome for its shareholders.

We believe that investors continue to find the residential sector attractive for the same reasons that we do. They have a service that many consumers view as essential and a history of steady performance with strong cash flow production in both good times and bad. The work that Alarm.com has done over the years to reimagine security system capabilities and convenience has made these systems even more valued by consumers today.

When substantial investment flows into our industry, it tends to benefit the overall market, including our service providers, our manufacturing partners, banks, and other investors, as confirmation that the industry is deserving of capital. So this is a positive trend for us and other players in the industry.

As it relates to Alarm.com specifically, we will continue to work with and support ADT as a large customer on both the residential side and the SMB side, just as we have been doing for the last decade. And while we are optimistic that the Thrive deal will create opportunities to unlock growth for ADT, we are currently modeling the business contribution to Alarm.com the same way we had been prior to the announcement of the acquisition.

In summary, I'm pleased with our third quarter results and the continued growth we see across the business. Alarm.com has developed durable positions addressing diverse opportunities in residential and commercial security and in virtual power production. With CellGate, we are adding another business line that fits our strong track record of building IoT-integrated SaaS businesses. I want to thank our service provider partners and our team for their hard work, and our investors for their continued trust in our business.

With that, I'll turn things over to Kevin Bradley to review our financials for the quarter, our updated guidance for 2026, and our initial view of 2027. Kevin?

Kevin Bradley

Thanks, Steve. I'll begin by reviewing our third quarter financial results, then turn to our updated guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2026 before providing our preliminary view of 2027. We are pleased to report another quarter of financial results that exceeded our expectations with continued growth in recurring revenue, earnings, and cash generation.

SaaS and license revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $191.2 million, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance by approximately $1.3 million. This performance reflects contributions from across the business and continued strength in our revenue retention rate, which remained in the 95% range. Hardware and other revenue totaled $88.3 million, up 8.9% year over year. Total revenue grew 9% to $279.4 million, and gross profit increased 10.6% to $186.8 million.

In the core business, higher unit volumes contributed about half of the sequential increase in hardware revenue, with video doorbells making the largest contribution to that volume-driven increase. Hardware gross margin was 28.4%, approximately 650 basis points higher than a year ago.

Results included approximately $3.8 million of temporary benefit associated with tariff-related cost recoveries, which accounts for the majority of the year-over-year gross margin expansion. Separately, higher memory costs are expected to pressure hardware margins going forward, which I will address with our outlook.

During the third quarter, total operating expenses, including depreciation and amortization, were $142.9 million. Total operating expenses excluding depreciation and amortization, stock-based compensation, and other items we adjust from G&A for non-GAAP purposes were $120.2 million, a 6.3% increase year-over-year.

R&D expense, inclusive of stock-based compensation, was $69.7 million, up 4.6% year over year. We ended the quarter with 1,153 R&D employees, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Total Alarm.com headcount was 2,055, which is flat to September 30, 2024, even as we made several acquisitions.

GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $34.4 million, or $0.66 per diluted share, compared with $35.3 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, a year ago. Non-GAAP adjusted net income grew 22.3% year-over-year to $48.3 million, and non-GAAP EPS increased 26.8% to $0.90 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA grew 19.3% year-over-year to $66.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.7%, approximately 200 basis points higher than in the year-ago quarter. These comparisons use revised non-GAAP definitions we adopted earlier this year applied to both periods.

Much like with hardware gross margins, the year-over-year expansion in adjusted EBITDA margins can largely be attributed to the temporary benefit associated with tariff cost recoveries that I mentioned earlier. Q3 was a bit of an anomaly in that regard.

We produced $69.5 million of free cash flow in the quarter, representing approximately 105% conversion of adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow. Through the first nine months, free cash flow totaled approximately $156.3 million, with cumulative conversion from adjusted EBITDA of 90%. We ended the quarter with $534.7 million of cash on the balance sheet.

We repurchased approximately 241,000 shares for $13.5 million during the quarter, bringing our year-to-date repurchases to approximately 1.2 million shares for $58.5 million. We continue to operate under the $150 million buyback authorization our Board approved earlier this year.

I'll turn now to our financial outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect SaaS and license revenue of between $194.6 million and $194.8 million, representing approximately 8% growth at the midpoint.

For the full year 2026, we are raising our SaaS and license revenue outlook to between $756.1 million and $756.3 million, an increase of $2 million at the midpoint from our previous guidance. This represents approximately 9.7% growth for the year. We are raising our total revenue guidance to be between $1.1011 billion and $1.1113 billion, including hardware and other revenue of between $345 million and $355 million. And we're raising our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA outlook to between $227 million and $229 million, an increase of $6 million at the midpoint from our previous guidance. This implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20.6% for the year.

Our fourth quarter outlook reflects the absence of the temporary tariff-related cost recovery benefit recognized in Q3, together with near-term pressure from higher memory costs ahead of the full effect of our pricing changes. We anticipate hardware gross margins of approximately 20.5% in Q4. Together, these hardware effects represent approximately $6.6 million of sequential EBITDA headwind.

Fourth quarter marketing spend also includes our large annual partner event, consistent with our normal expense seasonality. Non-GAAP adjusted net income for 2026 is projected to be between $161.2 million and $162.6 million, or $3.02 to $3.04 per diluted share. This increases our EPS outlook by approximately $0.10 from our August guidance. EPS is based on approximately 56.3 million weighted average diluted shares outstanding for the year.

We currently project our non-GAAP tax rate to remain at approximately 21%. We expect full-year stock-based compensation expense of between $32 million and $33 million.

Before turning to our preliminary view of 2027, I want to comment on our annual planning process, which is well underway. We continue to prioritize organic reinvestment based on the returns we can earn across the business. Each year, we review our existing initiatives and assess their progress to determine where to continue investing and where to reallocate capital.

As Steve discussed, CellGate adds another recurring revenue business built around connected devices. We expect it to contribute between $15 million and $20 million of SaaS and license revenue in 2027, with modestly dilutive SaaS gross margins, accretive hardware gross margins, and dilutive adjusted EBITDA margins for the next couple of years. We believe it provides us with another solid growth vector in our commercial and SMB business, and we see longer-term opportunities to expand profitability as its recurring revenue base scales.

Our preliminary outlook for 2027 includes SaaS and license revenue of between $815 million and $820 million. We anticipate approximately $360 million to $370 million of hardware and other revenue, implying total revenue of approximately $1.175 billion to $1.19 billion. We currently project non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of between $240 million and $245 million, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20.5% for the full year at the midpoint.

As Steve discussed on our earnings call a year ago at this time, we have been operating with a target of exiting 2027 with adjusted EBITDA margins in the 21% range, assuming broadly consistent revenue mix and gross margin profiles. Our preliminary look at 2027 places us near that target with full-year performance at around the 20.5% level.

Our ability to squeeze out another half a percent by end of year will likely be heavily dependent on how hardware margins trend in the face of substantial component cost increases and tariff pass-throughs, as well as the choices we make in 2027 regarding organic reinvestment into the business, including newly acquired CellGate.

Generally, investors should anticipate that if hardware revenues in 2027 exceed our forecast, then adjusted EBITDA dollars will be flat and margins will be pressured some. We believe passing through these external and somewhat extraordinary cost increases without an additional markup from Alarm.com is the right approach for our service provider partners and their customers, reinforcing the long-term alignment that underpins our business model.

We will continue to firm up our estimates and will provide formal annual guidance for 2027 when we report our fourth quarter 2026 financial results early next year.

In closing, we're pleased with our results through the first nine months of the year. We remain focused on expanding our recurring revenue base, sustaining earnings and cash generation, and deploying capital toward opportunities that create long-term value for our shareholders.

With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Adam Tindle with Raymond James.

分析师问答

Adam Tindle

I just wanted to start, Kevin, and maybe Steve, you can jump in here. I was doing the math on the initial guidance for the SaaS revenue in 2027. And if I've got it right on an organic basis, ex-CellGate, I think it's just north of 5.5% and maybe even close to 6% growth organic, which going back through my notes is a tick above where you initially started out 2026 despite a higher revenue dollar base.

So I'm just wondering, it seems like this business or this line item is maybe poised to accelerate a little bit. Just what are the drivers that lead you to a robust initial forecast and the momentum that you're seeing in the business on the SaaS side?

Kevin Bradley

Yes, hey, Adam. Thanks for the question. You know, I think we've seen a myriad of things that are leading us to maybe appear a little bit more bullish than we were around this time last year. We continue to see the growth initiatives sort of execute at a level slightly above what our expectations were.

I think as you've seen over the past three quarters, we've continuously operated above the high end of what our historical range was in terms of revenue retention, which has been a nice tailwind that will lead some RMR roll-forward this year. And the residential business, outside of that, in terms of account creation and ARPU specifically related to video, has been a bit of a positive for us as well.

Stephen Trundle

Yes, Adam, good question. I think Kevin probably hit it all. I just would generally say some of the areas that are growing are reaching a bit more scale, so we're getting a little uplift there.

Adam Tindle

Got it. Okay. And maybe just as a follow-up, Steve, you mentioned sort of the industry developments in your prepared remarks. I wanted to double-click on that. Obviously, with ADT, good acknowledgment of value. I wonder, you know, how that could potentially change your relationship with ADT. Is this maybe an opportunity to re-engage? I know it's probably very preliminary, but just some thoughts there.

And the other one that you didn't mention was Apple and their announcement to kind of, you know, re-enter or whatever we want to call it in the home. I wonder if you might just opine a little bit on that announcement as well. Thanks.

Stephen Trundle

Sure. Sure. Yes, with regard to Apple, so I guess the way we look at their entry is we welcome any type of Alexa-like interface coming from Apple that may sit in the home and compete with both Alexa and the Google Home device. Those tend to be devices that we like to support and that drive a lot of user engagement.

And of course, over the years, we've always been pretty solid in our support for all of the Apple interfaces, whether it be CarPlay or Siri or anything, all iPhone devices. I think we were the first to build a security app on the iPhone. So general excitement that we now have a device coming in from Apple.

Not that worried about some of the DIY products, I guess I would say, on the LG cameras and things of that nature that don't really intersect with our type of customer, but I think our premium customer may well have a desire to have a device in the kitchen that provides us another interface. So general, I'd say, enthusiasm for supporting the device.

With regard to the Thrive deal that I mentioned, yes, I think we'll have some opportunities to re-engage through time. I mean, we probably need to give them a month or so to let the dust settle and to figure out sort of the strategy. It's not as if we've ever really, by the way, sort of disengaged, if you will. We talk to the existing ADT management team regularly and have a good relationship there.

I think my expectation at the moment is that that will be the team going forward. And so I would expect to maintain the engagement, look for some opportunities that are maybe win-win, that we can collaborate on and kind of keep going. I don't know that I'm expecting a fundamental change of any sort at this moment, just sort of a public-to-private shift.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from Steven Sheldon with William Blair.

Matthew Filek

Hey, everyone. You have Matt Filek on for Steven Sheldon. Can you provide some more color on the growth segments? What was their percentage of SaaS revenue and rough growth rates for the quarter? And then what did you embed in your early look 2027 guidance for these growth segments?

Kevin Bradley

Yes, Matt, thanks for the question. I think the way we're referring to the growth initiatives this quarter is that cumulatively through Q3 and for the full year based on our new outlook, we're still expecting them to be about a third of revenue and growing in that 25% to 30% range. There's really no real change to that. They performed slightly better than we thought in Q3, so that's kind of basis points better than we thought, but generally in line.

As we get into next year a little bit, you know, the expectation has always been that it's sort of reverting back to the 20% to 25% sort of aggregate growth range that we've been referring to for the past several years. So that's what our current expectation is in that first look we gave.

Matthew Bullock

Great, thank you for that color, Kevin. And then in your core residential business, I think you have historically talked about blended residential ARPU roughly $5 per subscriber per month, but with increased camera adoption and upselling opportunities, how should we think about where that blended ARPU stands today and the potential for further upside to that over time?

Kevin Bradley

Yes, I would say that that's, on new account creation, that's been moving steadily up to the tune of 5% or so per year. So if you rewind the clock a couple of years, for example, we would have said probably around $5. What we've seen over the past couple years with video specifically, as we've spent a great deal of R&D dollars on building out that solution, is that the ARPU, when you're taking video, has actually grown by about 30%.

So when you combine that with our video attach rate, you wind up getting probably a 10% or so cumulative increase in new account ARPU over that two-year period. So I think about that more as like the $5.50 range at this point.

Matthew Bullock

Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our next question comes from Jack Vander Aarde with Maxim Group.

Jack Vander Aarde

Steve, maybe keep it short. You provided an update last quarter on the commercial fire opportunity and offering that you announced. It sounded like that was a pretty meaningful long-term driver. How's that progressing? Any material updates to note there?

Stephen Trundle

Yes. Good reminder, Jack. That's—it's progressing. We've now gotten to the point that I think we have over 600 service providers that have installed at least one service—not a test unit, but one commercial paying unit. ARPU is about where we expect it. We're building momentum there.

We've got a couple of UL listings to continue to sort of grab, UL being just the ratings that you put on the communication device. So still have a little work to do there to get to the full TAM, but early engagement with our partners is solid and looks like things are going well there so far.

Jack Vander Aarde

Okay, great. And then maybe just separately, on the international business specifically, I appreciate, Kevin, your comments on the kind of the combined aggregate growth businesses. As far as international goes, it's not a routine metric that you provide, but it did hit that milestone of over a million subscribers, which is great to see.

Just any general comments there, how international's been, how new account creation is trending, anything you can provide there? Thanks.

Stephen Trundle

Sure, Jack. Yes, that was an exciting milestone. International is still growing at a rate faster than the overall consolidated business, but relative to our goals, has been a little bit slower—not a little slower than we had hoped.

I think that on the residential side, the international consumer, particularly in Europe, is probably feeling more pressure now even than what we sense here in the U.S., particularly around fuel prices. So we've been focused a bit more on commercial, getting some traction there, getting decent video attachment on the commercial accounts.

And then we've got, I think, a decent pipeline at the moment of opportunities. We're having some success with MSOs or carriers outside of the U.S. So we've got a couple of pipeline opportunities there we're excited about.

So it's continuing to move. I'd like to see it accelerate and really be kind of an accretive driver to the overall set of growth initiatives. At the moment, it's probably, of the ones we talk about, the laggard, but still growing faster than the consolidated business.

Jack Vander Aarde

Okay, great. I appreciate the time, guys. Thank you.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

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